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Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

International Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

After the 2009-10 offseason, I wrote that I'd have liked Nationals GM Mike Rizzo's offseason if we could eliminate the top two signings, the $21MM given to Jason Marquis and Ivan Rodriguez.  A year later, it's much harder to excuse the $142MM spent on Werth and LaRoche.

With any seven-year free agent contract, the team is really just paying for the first three seasons and hoping the player doesn't become a complete albatross in the final four.  The players can provide value at the tail end of these megadeals, but it's more of a bonus than an expectation.  I can see Werth remaining an elite player through his age 34 season, and as he hasn't missed significant time since '07 I can see him remaining healthy too.  Though Werth's seven-year term shocked the baseball world, I could justify the signing for a team on the cusp of contention. 

Werth

My beef with the Werth signing is the Nationals' timing.  They don't have the rotation to contend in 2011, and while the 2012 team should be better I'm not confident they'll be ready then either.  Assuming the team's top young players will really start to come together after the '12 season, why not make your huge free agent strike then?  The Nationals actually tried to make their free agent splash earlier, with big offers to Mark Teixeira and Torii Hunter in past offseasons.  I don't have a problem with accelerating the timetable, for example if the Nationals signed Werth and went on to add Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.  But win-now moves have to come as a package deal for a team like the Nats. 

Did the Nationals "have to overpay" to get Werth and make the team more appealing for future free agents?  I agree with ESPN's Keith Law that the concept is nonsense.  Not because players rarely take discounts, but because they don't do so because they liked the team's crazy free agent expenditure.  Were players lured to the Rockies, Astros, Giants, and Cubs because those teams went overboard for Mike Hampton, Carlos Lee, Barry Zito, and Alfonso Soriano?  Many bad teams have turned things around without the luxury of a signature, excessive free agent signing. 

The LaRoche contract pales in comparison to Werth's, but I still don't consider it money well spent.  The Nationals went well beyond LaRoche's previous contract, despite his 2010 decline in walk rate and increase in strikeout rate.  Similar to Marquis, these are not interesting players at ten-figure prices.   

Rizzo's other free agent signings were acceptable purchases for a rebuilding club, with a little bit of upside sprinkled in.

I expected the Nationals to bring in a credible starter for Willingham, but Rodriguez does have the potential to develop into a premium late-inning reliever.  The Morgan trade struck me as selling low, and if the center field alternatives are Ankiel and Hairston, why not give him a chance to rebuild value?  I understand the Gorzelanny trade, as the lefty can chew up big league innings and has mild upside.  However, Morris might have been able to help the Nationals' bullpen this year, and I'm not sure why a rebuilding team gave up on Burgess.

The Nationals would not agree that their window for contention is likely to open in 2013.  I respect that, but if the plan is to win now I expect the team to be aggressive in improving its pitching staff at the trade deadline and during the 2011-12 offseason after failing to do so this winter.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Darwin Castillo, Igor Feliz

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Once again Royals GM Dayton Moore spent the offseason focusing on the long-term health of the organization.  Moore accommodated Greinke's trade demand, moved Royals mainstay DeJesus, locked up Butler, and dabbled with a few stopgap free agents.

There is a sense that Greinke forced the Royals' hand with his trade demand, but as ESPN's Keith Law points out, they weren't obligated to do anything.  Law felt the package received from Milwaukee was more about "bulk and fit, but not impact."  Granted, Law likes Jeffress and Odorizzi less than other prospect gurus, but it was surprising to see the Royals trade two years of an ace starter and not receive one top 50 prospect in return.  Perhaps the Royals felt that Greinke's desire to move on would adversely affect his 2011 performance and reduce his trade value, and that their backs were up against the wall due to the pitcher's no-trade clause.  He'd already rejected a trade to the Nationals that might have been superior.

Law was also down on the DeJesus return, as Mazzaro does not project as even a "medium-impact pitcher" in his mind.  Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein profiled Mazzaro as "a solid fourth starter who can eat up innings," ranking him tenth among the organization's strong group of 25-and-under players.  Ten Royals prospects appeared on a top 100 prospect list compiled by Law, Goldstein, or Baseball America, so the Royals can be forgiven for not shooting for the moon for one year of DeJesus, who was coming off thumb surgery.  Not that a team can ever acquire too much upside, but innings guys are needed too.

Meche made the classy decision to forfeit the $12MM remaining on his contract, preferring not to have the Royals pay him to rehab from shoulder surgery.  Moore did not spend the found money on pointless free agent signings, though on January 18th there wasn't much out there anyway.  Moore's free agent strategy was to commit the paltry sum of $7.75MM to Francoeur, Chen, Francis, and Cabrera.  These four aren't going to take playing time from top prospects, and Francis could even have trade value if he stays healthy.  Moore has been knocked for finally signing his boy Francoeur, but at that price there's little harm in seeing if he has another 2007 in him.

Butler

Unlike many extensions, I don't believe the Butler contract was about arbitration savings.  The deal pays Butler (pictured) $19MM for his three arbitration years, which represents minimal savings over what he might have gotten year-to-year assuming campaigns in the .300, 20 home run, 80 RBI range.  Instead, the contract is about projection: the arbitration years become a bargain if Butler develops more power, which seems possible since he turns 25 this month.  Plus, the Royals have a free agent season for $8MM and a club option for another at $12.5MM.  At worst the contract provides mild savings and a free agent year, but there is potential here for big savings.  And if Kila Ka'aihue and Eric Hosmer both prove big-league capable soon, that's a good problem to have.

The Royals have the consensus top farm system in baseball by a wide margin.  Moore has earned the opportunity to build a competitive club around his top young players as they graduate to the Majors beginning this year.  The Royals have lost consistently since Moore took over in 2006 and while they're a lousy team again this year, their farm system should catalyze a turnaround in the near future. 

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.  Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

You've heard repeatedly that the biggest story of the offseason for the Dodgers was owner Frank McCourt's divorce.  At this point the question is whether Commissioner Bud Selig will approve McCourt's proposed television deal with Fox, allowing him to settle his divorce and resolve some of the team's massive debt.  While the situation surely prevented GM Ned Colletti from bidding on Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth this winter, he did guarantee over $125MM to 11 free agents and Chad Billingsley.  The Dodgers were one of the most aggressive teams in baseball in free agent spending as Colletti assembled a team for new manager Don Mattingly.

The Billingsley extension was Colletti's best move of the offseason, as two free agent years were acquired affordably and a club option was included.  MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith estimated savings of at least $6MM for the club.  Not to take away credit from Colletti, but it appears this extension fell into his lap.  Reportedly, agent Dave Stewart recommended the pitcher wait until after the season but Billingsley instructed him to broker a deal as soon as possible.

Kuroda

Similarly, Kuroda (pictured) was eager to re-sign on a team-friendly deal with the Dodgers, and he never felt the need to field offers from other clubs.  Re-signing the second-best free agent starter on a one-year commitment was a big win for Colletti, who at least deserves praise for the original signing in '07 that led to this goodwill.

Had he made it to the open market, Lilly might have placed ahead of Kuroda as the second-best free agent starter – especially if the Dodgers chose not to offer him arbitration.  Instead, they extended him at a fair price in October after a strong 12-start stint.  By early November, the huge rotation uncertainty expected from Kuroda and Lilly's free agency was resolved. 

The Garland signing was the icing on the cake; a solid 200 inning arm fell to the Dodgers for just $5MM.  Garland probably won't actually hit 200 innings in 2011, as a spring oblique strain should have him right around the 190 inning threshold that could turn this into a two-year deal.  I liked the depth added by the affordable Padilla signing as well at the time, but since then the righty required elbow surgery.  Colletti didn't out-fox other GMs in signing so many pitchers below market rates, but the moves do reflect well on the organization.

The Uribe and Guerrier additions were market-rate signings.  Uribe rose to the top in a weak free agent market for middle infielders, but it's a sizeable commitment for a guy with a .300 OBP.  His versatility should come in handy, at least, and it's nice to hurt the Giants slightly.  The Dodgers were also the one team willing to add a third year for Guerrier, whose recent success has relied on limiting hits allowed rather than striking batters out.  I'm wary of that kind of commitment to a 32-year-old reliever who struck out 89 in 147 1/3 innings over the last two years.

The Dodgers' pitching staff looks strong top to bottom.  Scoring runs should be an issue, with the low OBPs of Uribe and Barajas and a possible lack of corner infield power from James Loney and Casey Blake.  The left field mix of Thames, Gwynn, and Gibbons figures to prove dicey offensively or defensively, depending on who's out there.  I'd hate to see the Dodgers waste this pitching staff, which includes Clayton Kershaw's last cheap season.  To compete, they'll need big offensive years from Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Rafael Furcal, plus a few surprises at other spots in the batting order.

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.  Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Jairo Labour, Francisco Tejada

    • 

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The 2010-11 offseason was another active one for Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, filled with low-risk free agent signings, intriguing deals, a major extension and the hiring of manager John Farrell.  Pull up a chair.

A couple of last winter's signings, John Buck and Kevin Gregg, improved their stock playing for the 2010 Blue Jays, each contributing a supplemental draft pick to the club as a parting gift.  The four veteran relievers acquired this winter, all in the $3-4MM salary range, must be viewed with Anthopoulos' draft pick obsession in mind.  The Blue Jays also bolstered the trade value of Dotel, Rauch, and Frasor by getting reasonable club options for 2012.  On the surface the four relievers will replace Downs and Gregg, but the bigger picture seems to be about future value in terms of draft picks or trades.  The signings are also forward-facing moves in that the Jays' young starters might be their greatest asset, and they'll be aided by a reliable bullpen.

For further proof of Anthopoulos' draft pick hoarding, consider the Olivo maneuvers.  The Jays essentially bought the #53 overall draft pick for $500K plus whatever amount was sent to the Rockies, the first time I've seen that strategy employed.  Given the free agent contracts they eventually signed, it seems that Gregg and Olivo might have had trade value had the Blue Jays exercised their options, but the team either didn't forecast that or just preferred the picks.

Anthopoulos made more traditional trades as well.  The Wells deal was a masterstroke, as the Toronto GM moved his predecessor's unmovable contract, clearing significant payroll space and even netting a useful player down the line in Francisco.  Anthopoulos cashed in on Marcum's fine 2010, netting a top 50 prospect in Lawrie.  He did take on risk in that deal, dealing one of baseball's precious commodities (multiple years of a top starting pitcher) while pinning the success of the trade on one prospect.  The Blue Jays dealt their ace for the second consecutive offseason, a trend that is probably finished.

I liked the Davis pickup, given the scarcity of center fielders.  And while the Villanueva trade is not complete, it doesn't seem that the Jays gave up much for a guy who had an 11.4 K/9 last year.  I'm not sure why the Brewers found Villanueva expendable.   

I'm a fan of the Bautista extension as well.  There's risk in any long-term deal, but if Bautista is now a consistent 30 home run bat, $14MM per free agent year is a fair price.

The Blue Jays will likely become progressively more aggressive about competing in the AL East, starting with the 2012 season.  A playoff berth could be added by MLB, and Toronto's goal is to begin an extended period of contention.  They've got a respectable 2011 club, but this coming offseason could be Anthopoulos' biggest push yet toward winning now. 

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Leobaldo Pina, Fernando Gonzalez, Jorge Araujo

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

February was a painful month for the Cardinals, as they failed to sign Pujols to an extension and lost Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery.  Still, Pujols and Tony La Russa will be in St. Louis for at least one more season, so let's take a look at how GM John Mozeliak augmented his team.

Last year's significant one-year gamble was righty Brad Penny; this time it's a position player in Lance Berkman.  In both cases the Cardinals paid a little more than I would have predicted, but it's hard to complain much about a one-year contract.  Berkman can probably still hold a spot in the middle of a lineup – ZiPS projects .262/.379/.449 – but expecting the 35-year-old to play more than 400 innings in the outfield for the first time since 2004 seems unrealistic.  You have to think his injury risk is heightened and the defense he does provide will be a negative.

Westbrook

The Westbrook contract represents a bargain, in both the $8.25MM salary and avoidance of a third year.  The need for 200 respectable innings from Westbrook (pictured) became much stronger when Wainwright went down.  The dropoff from Wainwright to Kyle McClellan might have pushed most pundits to pick the Reds or Brewers in the NL Central, but the Cardinals still have enough pitching to contend. 

Theriot didn't cost much to acquire, since the Dodgers probably would have non-tendered him.  He's a stretch as an everyday shortstop; a run at J.J. Hardy would have been better, though he may have been too expensive at $5.85MM.  Failing a Hardy trade I would have retained Brendan Ryan, who at least provides significant defensive value.

What about Pujols?  The Cardinals reportedly offered eight or nine years at $19-23MM annually.  While that might have been the third-largest contract in baseball history, I feel that $225MM over nine years would be the floor for an acceptable deal.  That'd still represent a hometown discount.  The Cardinals will need to enter that uncharted territory in the crucial five-day negotiating period after the World Series ends, having failed to resolve the Pujols situation during the 2010-11 offseason.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Angels entered the offseason seemingly ready to spend; they were a strong fit for free agents Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, and Rafael Soriano.  However, they came up short on all major free agent targets, succeeding only in upgrading the bullpen.  Then GM Tony Reagins made matters worse by acquiring Vernon Wells, who has one of the worst contracts in baseball.

Wells

Wells has four years and $86MM left on his contract.  If we are to consider Juan Rivera to be dead weight, that's $5.25MM cleared, and the Blue Jays reportedly sent another $5MM.  The Angels' reluctance over the years to give playing time to Napoli unless they had to indicates they weren't fond of his receiving skills, and I'm guessing they didn't want to pay him $5.8MM in 2011.  Still, could have been non-tendered if the Halos didn't want him and he did have trade value by himself.  Since he wasn't a pure salary dump, I can't subtract Napoli's contract from Wells' burden even if Arte Moreno does.  Ultimately, it's as if the Angels gave Wells a four-year, $75.75MM free agent contract, with the bonuses of opening up an extra roster spot and not having to surrender a draft pick.

Wells isn't a $19MM player at this point in his career, though I am curious what kind of contract he would have gotten this winter as a free agent.  I think coming off one good year following a pretty bad one would have set his ceiling at four years and $52MM at the very most.  My comparison is Victor Martinez, another player who can handle a premium defensive position but is not regarded as good there.  So even with this generous comp, the Angels overpaid Wells by at least $20MM.  For the Wells deal to work out for the Angels, he'll need to improve defensively with the switch to left field and have offensive seasons resembling '08 and '10 rather than '07 and '09.  You can cherry-pick Wells' 2010 numbers either way, but it was a streaky season bookended by strong performances in April and September.  From May through August, he hit .251/.300/.449.  The ZiPS projection system calls for .260/.313/.432 in 2011 (and presumably worse in future years), which would make this trade a disaster.

As for lefty relievers Downs and Takahashi, the Angels certainly paid full sticker price.  But their bullpen needed the upgrade and such expenses are justified for big budget contending teams. 

On the plus side, the Angels have improved their outfield defense, which is crucial given their flyball pitching staff.  The Angels have serious offensive concerns, but all of the AL West contenders are flawed.  Despite a poor offseason, the Halos' fine rotation may still carry them to the playoffs in 2011.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

In hiring Kevin Towers as GM, the Diamondbacks brought in a veteran dealmaker to right the ship after a 97 loss season.  However, don't forget that interim GM Jerry Dipoto was behind the summer trades that brought in Dan Hudson, Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs, Pat Corbin, David Holmberg, and Rafael Rodriguez.  Towers furthered the makeover during the offseason, revamping the Majors' worst bullpen, adding a couple of starting pitchers, and signing a half-dozen veteran role players to big league deals.

For each of the 2008-10 seasons, Diamondbacks hitters finished first or second in baseball in strikeouts.  Reynolds was public enemy number one in that regard, though he was also the team's biggest power threat.  LaRoche was allowed to leave, though I don't think the D'Backs had the payroll space for him regardless of his strikeout total.  With .320 OBPs and SLGs under .500, Reynolds and LaRoche weren't all that productive in 2010.  Nonetheless, Mora and Blum represent a downgrade at the hot corner.  Over at first, Branyan is a less healthy, poor man's Reynolds.  The team has a more interesting candidate in Brandon Allen, so hopefully Branyan doesn't steal too many plate appearances. 

Putz

Towers' return for Reynolds was nothing special, and I wonder if the new regime should have waited for him to rebuild some value in a healthier 2011 season.  Still, Hernandez is a sleeper who may end up filling in for Putz in the ninth inning this year.  Putz (pictured) represented Towers' big free agent splash; the team had vowed to import a closer.  Putz is coming off a strong season and $5MM a year is the going rate, but he's a 34-year-old who must be handled carefully.  Why not just let Hernandez run with the job?  The Putz signing seems like an overreaction to last year's awful bullpen, a risky luxury the team didn't need at this stage.  I'd been expecting Towers to show off his shrewd bargain basement bullpen-building skills.

Towers used free agency to assemble a veteran bench.  No one was particularly expensive, but the main benefit seems to be leadership and other intangible qualities.  The Bloomquists of the world become a concern only if they start taking plate appearances from younger, better players.

The D'Backs acquired Duke and Galarraga to round out their rotation, though Duke is out until late April with a broken hand.  They amount to $6.55MM worth of rotation filler.  More interesting is a potential 2013 rotation fronted by Jarrod Parker, Tyler Skaggs, Dan Hudson, and Ian Kennedy.

The 2011 Diamondbacks are in an uncomfortable spot – right fielder Justin Upton is in his prime and shortstop Stephen Drew is only under contract for two more seasons.  They also spent over $25MM on short-term additions this offseason.  However, the team does not appear to have the talent to reach the playoffs this year or next.  Perhaps Towers should focus on restocking the cupboard to begin a sustained period of contending around 2013, starting with the #3 and #7 picks in the '11 draft.  Though Towers flirted with the prospect of trading Upton, the 23-year-old is under contract through '15 and should be a big part of the next good Arizona team.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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The Yankees are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

International Signings

  • Juan Carlos Paniagua, Yadil Mujica, Freiter Marte, Wilmer Romero

    • 

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Only the Yankees can spend $130MM on free agents and have it seem like they didn't do much during the offseason.  Cliff Lee spurned the team's huge offer, but they were able to retain future Hall of Famers Jeter and Rivera while improving the bullpen.

Jeter

The Yankees ended up paying about twice what Jeter is probably worth in a strictly baseball sense, after a few unnecessary verbal jabs from both sides.  I don't have a problem with it; they can afford to overpay, and they didn't have a superior alternative at shortstop.  The price to keep Rivera was steep as well, yet he remains among the game's best relievers into his 40s.  Perhaps the Yankees found it reassuring that multiple teams were willing to offer Rivera three guaranteed years, which suggests they weren't forced to overpay just for being the Yankees.

The mystery team actually signed Lee, with the Phillies inking him to a five-year, $120MM deal in mid-December. At $148MM over seven years, the Yankees offered Lee more guaranteed money than the Rangers or Phillies.  Still, the Phillies seemingly offered the biggest salary at $24MM a year.  Had the Yankees extended themselves to $150MM over six years, they might have gotten their man – even if they represented his second or third choice.  With Pettitte's status an unknown at the time, going the extra mile for Lee still would have been the right move.  The Yankees cannot buy or trade for high-quality starting pitching if it just isn't there, and I'm not convinced this year's trade market will feature even a #2-type starter.

Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth were already off the board by the time Lee signed, and Adrian Beltre would have been an even tougher fit, so there weren't any big names left for the Yankees to pursue.  The starting pitching market was especially bleak at that point, but credit GM Brian Cashman for setting aside a potential fan backlash and exploring a reunion with Carl Pavano.

Cashman chose not to pursue Zack Greinke, who secretly met with the GM during the Winter Meetings to try to convince him he'd thrive in New York.  Jon Heyman's article implies Cashman bowed out mainly because he thought Greinke wasn't a good fit with the club, rather than balking at the Royals' asking price.  If true, it's interesting that Cashman felt Greinke was a bad fit but Pavano was a good one, but of course the stakes were higher with Greinke. 

Assuming a Matt Garza trade would have made both the Rays and Yankees uneasy, Cashman was out of options on starting pitching.  His plan at that point was apparently to toss a mere $14MM at complementary pieces Feliciano, Martin, and Jones.  There's something to be said for committing two years to Feliciano instead of three, and the Yankees will need a strong bullpen if their fourth and fifth starters consistently fail to go deep into games.  Even if Cashman wasn't on board, the Soriano signing certainly gives the team a much stronger bullpen.  The dual opt-outs are the smallest concern with that contract, which I explained in a separate post.

The Yankees' minor league signings include former big names Chavez, Colon, Garcia, Millwood, and Prior.  There are spring indications that several of them can have positive contributions for the big league club in 2011.  The main goal may be to wring a couple of good months out of the rotation candidates.

Most likely we'll hear the Yankees connected to every starting pitcher with a pulse throughout the season, after which the team's rotation could be further depleted if C.C. Sabathia opts out.  Problem is, it's hard to identify even one front-end starter who projects to be available in July.  The Yankees may need one or two of their in-house starters to exceed expectations if they are to go deep into the playoffs this year.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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The Mets are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League/International Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Alderson

The biggest move of the Mets' offseason was undoubtedly the hiring of Sandy Alderson as GM in October.  Alderson's small-market experience will be an asset with the Mets, as his payroll flexibility may remain limited for part of his four-year contract due to the Wilpons' Madoff-related issues.  The new Mets front office has an analytical feel to it, as Alderson hired Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi.  Additionally, Terry Collins is aboard as the new manager.  Let's take a look at Alderson's first offseason.

Exercising Reyes' option at $11MM was a no-brainer.  If Reyes has a strong first half, Alderson may be tasked with restocking a poorly-rated farm system by trading his shortstop.  Releasing Oliver Perez was also a fairly obvious choice, as he simply isn't worth a roster spot despite his $12MM salary.  Cutting Castillo might be considered a baseball decision as well as one for the fans.  If Emaus has even a little bit of upside, he's the right pick at second base.

Like the Mariners, the Mets are a big-budget team but don't appear to be a player or two away from contention in 2011.  Shopping the bargain bin was the right move for Alderson.  Capuano and Young in particular have upside for a minimal commitment.  The other moves amount to tinkering.  Between second base, the rotation, and the bullpen, the Mets have a lot of opportunity for players to step up.

Speaking of the bullpen, it's imperative that the Mets find a way to prevent Francisco Rodriguez from finishing 55 games, as that would trigger a 2012 option adding a net cost of $14MM.  I agree with Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal – the Mets could employ a more sabermetric bullpen strategy, using K-Rod in all kinds of high leverage situations.  Then when the reliever's agent files a grievance, the Mets can cite legitimate baseball reasons as their motivation.  The downside is that future free agent targets may be turned off if the Mets try to sneak around a contract clause to which they agreed.  One DL stint for Rodriguez may make the whole issue a moot point.

2011 figures to be a transition year for the Mets, perhaps with the goals of trading Reyes, getting Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran off the books, spending more on amateur talent, and figuring out what the team has for 2012.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League/International Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Chris Antonetti's first offseason as Indians GM marked the second year in a row the team spent about three million bucks on free agents.  As opposed to the Pirates and Orioles, the Indians were not willing to spend money on free agent placeholders.

Durbin

The Indians flipped Kearns for Yankees prospect Zach McAllister last summer, and that might be the plan if any of the veteran signings are having decent years at the trade deadline and the team is struggling.  Durbin (pictured) is a solid reliever, and getting him for $800K is good value.  I liked the minor league deals for Johnson and Buck, as both have upside and opportunity if they can get healthy.

Can the Indians become the surprise contender of 2011?  The offense will ideally be elevated by full seasons from Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana.  Position player reinforcements could arrive in the form of top prospects Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Nick Weglarz, and Cord Phelps. But even if we optimistically grant the Indians an above-average offense, to contend they'd need breakout performances from pitchers such as Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco, a strong debut from Alex White, and improvements from several of the relievers behind Chris Perez.  It's a lot to ask. 

The Tribe's farm system ranks seventh in baseball, according to Baseball America, which praised the club for having best 2010 draft of any team.  They're stocked at both the lower and upper levels of the minors.  This is a club that will get better in a hurry, even if 2011 is not the year.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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