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Tarik Skubal Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Tarik Skubal has his first Cy Young award. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that the Tigers ace won the AL Cy Young by a unanimous margin. He received all 30 first-place votes. Kansas City’s Seth Lugo placed runner-up, while Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase rounded out the top three.

Whether Skubal would win the award was never in doubt. The hard-throwing southpaw, who turns 28 today, won the AL’s pitching Triple Crown. He led the Junior Circuit with a 2.39 earned run average across 192 innings. He held the major league lead in wins (18) and strikeouts (228). Skubal was essentially dominant from start to finish, as he didn’t allow an ERA higher than 3.05 in any month. He carried a 2.41 mark into the All-Star Break to earn his first selection to the Midsummer Classic.

Skubal fired 76 innings of 2.37 ERA ball after the Break, serving as the one constant in a Detroit rotation that was patched together after the Jack Flaherty deadline trade. He was the biggest contributor to the Tigers’ Cinderella run to a Wild Card in the second half. He punctuated the regular season with seven scoreless innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rays that more or less ensured Detroit would clinch a playoff spot in the final weekend of the regular season.

This was the first season in which Skubal topped 150 innings. He looked like a budding ace in 2022, when he turned in a 3.52 ERA with huge strikeout numbers across 21 starts. A late-season flexor injury brought that year to a halt. Skubal underwent surgery in August and was out into July ’23. He struck out 102 batters with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts to close that season. Skubal was a trendy preseason Cy Young pick coming into 2024. He more than lived up to that promise.

Lugo, who turned 35 earlier this week, had the best season of his career. He turned in an even 3.00 ERA across 206 2/3 innings. Only Logan Gilbert threw more innings than Lugo, a former reliever who didn’t move back to the rotation until the ’23 season. The Royals made out incredibly well in the first season of a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. Lugo’s stellar year was a big reason that K.C. snapped a nine-year playoff drought of their own.

Clase had one of the best seasons by a reliever ever. The Guardians’ closer managed a 0.61 ERA across 74 1/3 frames. He locked down 47 saves in 50 attempts. Clase has led the majors in saves in three straight seasons. He anchored an elite Cleveland bullpen that carried the Guardians to an AL Central title. He’s the first reliever since Francisco Rodríguez in 2008 to earn a top three finish in Cy Young balloting.

While Skubal had a monopoly on first-place votes, five pitchers placed second on at least one ballot. In addition to Lugo and Clase, Cole Ragans, Corbin Burnes and Gilbert all picked up a second-place vote. Framber Valdez was the only other pitcher to receive any top three votes. Kirby Yates, Yusei Kikuchi and Cleveland rookie reliever Cade Smith all appeared on one ballot in fourth or fifth place.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown courtesy of the BBWAA.

MLBTR Podcast: The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Red Sox acquire Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, will they still go after top free agents? (13:15)
  • Could the Reds and Royals line up on a trade involving Jonathan India and Brady Singer or some other Kansas City pitching? (17:25)
  • On the Top 50, none of the writers predicted the Orioles to sign top free agents. Are you underestimating David Rubenstein’s intention to speed up the timeline? (26:05)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Royals Select Three Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Royals have selected left-hander Noah Cameron, right-hander Luinder Avila, and right-hander Eric Cerantola to their 40-man roster ahead of this evening’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, per a team announcement. No corresponding moves were necessary, and the club’s 40-man roster now stands at 37 players.

Cameron, 25, was a seventh-round pick by the Royals in 2021. A starter at every level of the minors so far, the southpaw struggled badly in his first taste of Double-A action last year but made significant strides this year. After seeing Cameron pitch to a solid 3.63 ERA in 16 starts at that level, the Royals promoted him to Triple-A where he really took off over nine starts down the stretch. In 54 1/3 Triple-A innings, Cameron posted a 2.32 ERA while striking out 29% of opponents and walking just 5.1%. That late-season breakout at the highest level of the minors surely made it an easy decision to roster the lefty ahead of today’s protection deadline.

Avila, 23, signed with the Royals out of Venezuela and made his pro debut back in 2018. The righty moved to stateside ball in 2021 as a starting pitcher and has generally stayed in that role throughout his time in the minors. This year, Avila made 19 starts for the club’s Double-A affiliate in Northwest Arkansas, pitching to a solid 3.81 ERA in 82 2/3 innings of work with a 22.9% strikeout rate. That earned Avila a promotion to Triple-A, though he was shelled for five runs in 4 1/3 innings of work in his lone start at the level this year. Even so, the Royals evidently decided he was close enough to the majors to warrant protection from the Rule 5 Draft next month.

Cerantola, 24, was selected by Kansas City in the fifth-round of the 2021 draft. The right-hander has mostly acted as a multi-inning reliever throughout his time in the minors and posted big strikeout numbers in Double-A this year, punching out 31.7% of opponents faced. Unfortunately, that was accompanied by an untenable 16.2% walk rate. The right-hander’s 2.78 ERA in 58 1/3 innings at the level earned him a midseason promotion to Triple-A, but those underlying issues remained following the promotion. In 14 1/3 frames at the minors’ highest level, Cerantola walked 12.5% of opponents but made up for it with a 31.3% strikeout rate while posting a 3.77 ERA for the Royals’ Omaha affiliate. As an upper-minors relief prospect with impressive stuff, it’s hardly a surprise the Royals decided to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft rather than risk a team attempting to stash him in their bullpen next year.

Royals Have Shown Interest In Alec Bohm, Taylor Ward

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The Royals have reportedly spoken to the Reds about a trade involving Kansas City right-hander Brady Singer and Cincinnati infielder Jonathan India, but that’s just one of multiple pursuits for Royals general manager J.J. Picollo, it seems. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that while no deals are necessarily close as of this moment, the Royals have also spoken to the Phillies about third baseman Alec Bohm and to the Angels about outfielder Taylor Ward. Like India, both Bohm and Ward are right-handed bats with multiple seasons of club control remaining.

Bohm, 28, was the No. 3 overall pick back in 2018 and has settled in as a regular at third base in Philadelphia over the past four-plus seasons. He’s coming off an uneven 2024 season in which he was one of the game’s most productive hitters in April but followed it with five months of effectively league-average production. On the whole, he turned in a .280/.332/.448 batting line (115 wRC+). Over the past three seasons, Bohm has combined for a .278/.325/.427 slash, demolishing left-handed pitching along the way but producing at a roughly average clip against fellow righties.

Given his excellent bat-to-ball skills — 14.2% strikeout rate in 2024; 15.7% dating back to 2022 — Bohm is a sensible target for a Royals club that places a heavy emphasis on putting the ball in play. Kansas City had baseball’s third-lowest strikeout rate in 2024, and since 2021 only five teams have posted a lower collective strikeout rate than the Royals. Plugging Bohm in as a regular at third base would provide an offensive upgrade over slick-fielding Maikel Garcia, who’s arguably better suited as a utilityman, given his defensive chops.

Speaking of glovework, however, Bohm is something of a mixed bag on that front. The Royals have typically prioritized plus defenders in addition to their affinity for contact-oriented bats. Bohm has typically graded out as a poor defender at the hot corner, but he posted career-best marks in Defensive Runs Saved (0) and Outs Above Average (4) in 2024. If the Royals believe those gains can be sustained, he’d make all the more sense as a trade target.

Bohm is controlled for another two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.1MM in his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility in 2025. It’s a generally reasonable rate that shouldn’t be cumbersome, even for a mid-level payroll club like Kansas City. While the Royals have in-house options at third base (Garcia) and at second base (Michael Massey), their interest in India and Bohm suggests a desire to add at least one bat to that infield mix. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and, of course, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. aren’t going to be displaced, leaving second base or third base as the likely positions to be upgraded.

For the Phillies, trading Bohm wouldn’t be so much about shedding salary or moving on from an unproductive player as it would reimagining an offense that hasn’t gotten them over the hump in recent postseason trips. Bohm has hit well with men on base in recent seasons (hence consecutive 97 RBI campaigns) but offers average power and stark platoon splits. The Phillies, meanwhile, don’t have ample pathways to pursuing upgrades in the lineup. First base (Bryce Harper), shortstop (Trea Turner), designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber), catcher (J.T. Realmuto) and right field (Nick Castellanos) are all manned by expensive veterans. Third base (Bohm), second base (Bryson Stott) and the other two outfield spots (combination of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Austin Hays) are the primary areas where president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski can look to bring about some form of change.

As for Ward, he’s an on-paper trade candidate for an Angels club that just finished dead last in the American League West. However, owner Arte Moreno and GM Perry Minasian have both expressed a desire to put forth a competitive club next winter. Ward, coming off a .246/.323/.426 (111 wRC+) showing in 2024 and a .259/.338/.440 line (118 wRC+) since 2021, is seemingly a part of that vision. Few outsiders see a path to contention for the ’25 Angels, but the team’s actions thus far — trading for Jorge Soler and signing Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks and Kevin Newman — suggest that they’re more focused on adding than on subtracting.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored last month, there’s a scenario where the Angels move Ward and still make an effort to compete. Ward could be flipped for rotation help — a potential match with the Royals — or traded for younger talent, with the Angels reallocating his would-be salary to other areas of need. Swartz projects Ward for a $9.2MM salary in 2025, which isn’t unreasonable for a player of his ability but also isn’t a raucous bargain. The Royals could plug Ward into left field, providing a stark upgrade over MJ Melendez, and pair him with defensive standout Kyle Isbel in center and rebound hopeful Hunter Renfroe in right field.

There’s no telling just yet how it’ll all shake out, but it seems Kansas City is quite active on the trade front at the moment. In addition to the bats they’ve targeted, the Royals have received interest from other clubs in each of the aforementioned Garcia, Singer, right-hander Alec Marsh and left-hander Kris Bubic. Picollo and his staff seemingly have plenty of potential concepts to explore, with the end goal of bolstering a currently top-heavy lineup a fairly obvious priority.

Reds, Royals Reportedly Discussing Jonathan India Trade

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The Reds and Royals are discussing a trade that would send second baseman Jonathan India to Kansas City in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer, according to a report from C. Trent Rosencrans and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal adds that a deal between the sides is not considered close and that India is one of “several” hitters the Royals are looking at as they consider dealing from their rotation depth.

India, 28 next month, is coming off something of a rebound campaign in 2024. After averaging just 111 games per season in each of the past two years with below average offensive numbers while dealing with hamstring issues and a bout of plantar fasciitis in his left foot, he posted his best season since winning the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year award this past year. In 637 trips to the plate across 151 games this year, India slashed a respectable .248/.357/.392 (108 wRC+) while slugging 15 homers and stealing 13 bases. He also struck out just 19.6% of the time while walking at a 12.6% clip, making him one of just three players (alongside Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto) to strike out in less than 20% of his plate appearances with a walk rate of at least 12%.

That impressive discipline at the plate makes India a valuable asset even as his power and speed numbers fall short of 20/20 potential. Just five qualified second basemen posted better offensive seasons by measure of wRC+ than India did last year, and his 2.8 fWAR ranks seventh at the position. On the surface, losing that production would seem to be debilitating for a Reds offense that was bottom-five in baseball by measure of wRC+ in 2024. With that being said, it’s worth noting that India appeared likely to enter 2024 without a clear position to call home until 2023 Rookie of the Year finalist Matt McLain missed the entire 2024 campaign due to shoulder surgery and top prospect Noelvi Marte missed the first half of the season due to an 80-game PED suspension.

Marte struggled badly (31% strikeout rate, 46 wRC+) in 66 games with the Reds this year after returning from his suspension, but McLain proved to be a dynamic offensive force for the club in his 89-game rookie campaign back in 2023. Then just 23 years old, the youngster slashed an excellent .290/.357/.507 (127 wRC+) with 16 homers and 14 steals in just 403 plate appearances. If he can produce anything close to that level of offensive firepower over a full season in 2025, that would more than make up for the loss of India’s bat from the lineup. It’s possible the club could find a way to keep both second basemen in the lineup—McLain has gotten a handful of reps at third base and in center field during his recent stint in Arizona Fall League— but with TJ Friedl just one season removed from a 3.9-win campaign in center and the Reds unlikely to give up on Marte after less than half a season in the majors, it could make sense for the club to cash in on India now.

One sensible way for the club to do that would be targeting a quality rotation arm like Singer. Both Singer and India are under control through the end of the 2026 season, making the swap a fairly clean one from a team control perspective. India is guaranteed a $5MM salary for 2025 and is arbitration eligible for 2026, while MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Singer for an $8.8MM salary in his penultimate trip through arbitration this winter. That slight net increase in salary commitment likely wouldn’t be a problem for a Reds club that plans to run a payroll “at or above” 2024 levels next year, giving them some breathing room financially for next season.

In Singer, the Reds would receive a quality mid-rotation arm to pair with Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo behind staff ace Hunter Greene. The 28-year-old righty pitched to a solid 3.71 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 3.94 FIP in 179 2/3 innings of work across 32 starts last year. That’s a major step forward from a disastrous 2023 season that saw him post a 5.52 ERA in 159 2/3 frames, but not quite at the level of his 153 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball the year prior. Overall, Singer has pitched to a 4.15 ERA (103 ERA+) with a 3.94 FIP over the last three seasons, which sets up a solid floor for the right-hander looking forward even if he doesn’t return to the level of production he flashed in 2022.

With Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha all locked into the club’s rotation for 2025, it makes plenty of sense for the Royals to explore trades from their crop of back-end arms that includes not only Singer but also Kyle Wright, Alec Marsh, and Kris Bubic. Those latter two names have already found themselves in the rumor mill this winter, and Rosenthal’s report confirms the Royals are still “entertaining” the possibility of moving either Marsh or Bubic instead of Singer, though he adds that Lugo, Ragans, and Wacha are all understood to be “essentially off-limits.” With that being said, he notes that teams interested in contending immediately prefer Singer to both Marsh and Bubic and the Royals would likely have to settle for a younger, less established hitter if they were to deal either of their lesser arms.

Bringing India would be a somewhat complicated fit for the Royals, however, as it would likely displace incumbent second baseman Michael Massey. Massey enjoyed the best season of his career in 2024, slashing .259/.294/.449 with 14 homers and a 102 wRC+ in 356 trips to the plate while playing around back issues early in the season. Both Massey and India have played second base almost exclusively in their careers to this point, though Massey has one appearance at the hot corner and the Reds toyed with the idea of playing India at first base or in left field last year before losing McLain for the season. It’s certainly feasible to imagine the Royals finding appropriate playing time for both players by utilizing the DH on days where Salvador Perez is catching, especially if India can also mix into the outfield on occasion.

Royals Receive PPI Pick For Witt’s Top-Three MVP Finish

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the finalists for the 2024 awards this evening. Bobby Witt Jr. was among the finalists for American League MVP, indicating he finished in the top three in the balloting. As Matt Eddy of Baseball America points out (on X), that’ll earn the Royals an extra pick after the first round of the 2025 draft.

The 2022 collective bargaining agreement introduced the Prospect Promotion Incentive to dissuade teams from keeping their top talents in the minors. A team that carries a top prospect for a full year of service can receive a draft choice if that player finds success early in his career.

A player would earn his team a pick for winning Rookie of the Year or finishing in the top three in Cy Young or MVP voting within his pre-arbitration years (essentially his first three seasons of service). A team can only add one PPI selection per player. In previous seasons, Julio Rodríguez, Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll have earned their teams a PPI choice by winning Rookie of the Year.

Kansas City carried Witt, a consensus top prospect, on the roster for the entire 2022 season. The star shortstop did not earn the Rookie of the Year pick, finishing fourth in the balloting. He instead becomes the first player to earn his team an extra selection through the top three MVP placement in his third season. That’s a more difficult path that’ll presumably happen far less frequently than the Rookie of the Year route. They’ll take it all the same.

In February, the Royals signed Witt to an 11-year extension that guaranteed him a little less than $289MM. That did not take away from Witt’s eligibility for the Prospect Promotion Incentive even though he was no longer slated for a salary around the league minimum. He’s likely to finish as the MVP runner-up behind Aaron Judge after racking up a season worth around nine wins above replacement. Witt won the batting title and led the majors with 211 hits. He finished the year with a .332/.389/.588 slash line with 32 homers and 109 runs batted in while playing plus defense at the infield’s most demanding position. The Royals won 86 games to snap a nine-year postseason drought.

This is the only guaranteed PPI selection to date, but there could be more once award winners are announced next week. The Padres and Orioles would stand to gain an extra pick if Jackson Merrill and Colton Cowser win their respective Rookie of the Year awards. Austin Wells is also eligible but is a longer shot to win AL Rookie of the Year.

The Pirates cannot get an extra pick for Paul Skenes finishing in the top three in Cy Young balloting because Pittsburgh did not call the star righty up until early May. They would not receive a selection if Skenes wins Rookie of the Year for the same reason. Skenes would earn himself a full year of service time in the likely event that he places in the top two in ROY voting, however.

The other Rookie of the Year finalists also do not meet the PPI criteria. Luis Gil was not on two of the preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline — the necessary prospect status to earn a pick. The Brewers carried Jackson Chourio for a full season but signed him to an eight-year extension last December. Eddy reported in September that players who sign an extension before their MLB debuts are not eligible for a PPI selection. Chourio’s extension differs from Witt’s because the latter had already played in MLB before signing.

Picollo: Royals "Don't Expect To" Pursue More Starting Pitching

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With Michael Wacha retained on a three-year deal worth at least $51MM, “we don’t expect to be in the market for a starter moving forward.  We’re going to focus on some other things,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo told MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and other reporters during the GM Meetings.  Picollo cited the projected top five of Wacha, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and Alec Marsh, and said that the Royals continue to view Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch as starters even though both pitched primarily as relievers in 2024.  All in all, the GM is “very comfortable with our starting pitching right now,” and added that “we feel very good about the depth of our bullpen right now” as well.

As noted by MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, it is possible the Royals could still add a veteran arm as depth, so the door probably isn’t closed entirely on Kansas City’s starting pitching plans even if re-signing Wacha checked a major box on the to-do list.  There were some reports earlier this week suggesting that the Royals could consider moving Marsh or Bubic in order to land lineup help, and such a trade would in all likelihood lead to K.C. pursuing some extra pitching to shore up the depth chart.  Some level of relief additions are also probably likely, even if these might take the form of minor league signings if Picollo is really as set as he claims about the bullpen mix.

Why The Royals Should Be Primed For Another Big Offseason

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The Royals were the surprise spender of the 2023-24 offseason, putting down a combined $110.5MM on eight free agents: Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola. Several of the moves didn't pan out, but the ones that did paid of in spades. Lugo and Wacha helped anchor a strong rotation, which the Royals rode to a Wild Card berth in the American League. They quickly swept the Orioles out of said Wild Card round before falling 3-1 to the eventual AL Champion Yankees in the Division Series.

Not every offseason spending spree produces such favorable results. More often than not, it seems to go the other direction. "Winning the offseason" has become something of an oft-cited punchline, given the frequency with which the team that grabbed the most headlines over a given winter ultimately still falls shy of expectation.

That doesn't mean the Royals should be reluctant to take a similarly aggressive approach to the free agent market this winter, however. To the contrary, there are several reasons why they should give serious thought to an even more aggressive winter -- perhaps even breaking their prior free agent precedents -- especially with an early strike to retain Wacha on a three-year contract already complete.

It's not exactly a novel concept to suggest that a team that just completed a surprising playoff berth thanks to big contributions from some on-the-rise stars should spend in free agency, of course. But the Royals are better positioned than many might realize, and if you're looking for dark-horse candidates to make a significant splash in free agency, they're among my favorite picks to do so. Let's break down the reasons.

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Royals Could Listen On Kris Bubic, Alec Marsh In Search For Offense

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The Royals already knocked out one key bit of offseason business, re-signing Michael Wacha to a $51MM deal just before the veteran starter could discuss contracts with other teams. It seems they’ll now turn their attention to deepening a top-heavy lineup.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo of the Athletic write that the Royals are looking for ways to improve their on-base skills, particularly out of the leadoff spot. To that end, Sammon and Woo report that Kansas City may entertain trade offers on Kris Bubic or Alec Marsh if they can net lineup help.

The Kansas City offense was almost entirely dependent on Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez this year. They were the only Royals players to reach 20 homers. Of the nine K.C. hitters with 300+ plate appearances, four had better than average seasons by measure of wRC+. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and second baseman Michael Massey only narrowly checked in above average, hitting for power but with middling on-base marks.

Finding a reliable table-setter in front of Witt and Perez was a huge challenge. Kansas City gave Maikel Garcia the majority of the playing time atop the lineup. Garcia stole 27 bases but provided very little at the plate. Royals leadoff men had a putrid .228/.270/.334 batting line overall. No team had a lower OBP out of the top spot, while only the White Sox got less slugging output. That left Witt to take a lot of at-bats with the bases empty. K.C.’s franchise shortstop ranked eighth in MLB in plate appearances with no one on base. The seven players ahead of him were all primarily leadoff hitters (thereby guaranteed to take at least one at-bat with the bases empty every game).

While a free agent pursuit of someone like Jurickson Profar or Gleyber Torres would address the leadoff spot, the Royals could do so more affordably by dealing from their pitching depth. Kansas City has an excellent front four in their rotation. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo project as an elite 1-2 tandem. Wacha is back to resume his role as a quality third starter, while righty Brady Singer is a mid-rotation arm in his own right. The fifth spot is a little less established.

Marsh held that role for the bulk of the ’24 season. The Arizona State product started 25 times and tossed 129 innings of 4.53 ERA ball. He struck out 22.4% of opponents against a solid 7.1% walk rate. While it wasn’t a dominant showing, Marsh had serviceable numbers for a fifth starter. The Royals nudged him out of the rotation when they acquired Michael Lorenzen at the deadline. With Lorenzen returning to free agency, Marsh could be the in-house favorite for that job again.

He’ll have competition from former Brave Kyle Wright. Kansas City acquired the right-hander last offseason, weeks after Atlanta announced that the former fifth overall pick underwent shoulder surgery. The Royals stashed him on the injured list all year with an eye towards a 2025 return. While it’s difficult to bank on a pitcher who has missed the majority of the last two seasons to injury, Wright posted a 3.19 ERA over 30 starts in 2022. The Royals are surely interested to see how his stuff looks in Spring Training. That could increase their willingness to deal Marsh.

Bubic could be in the mix for the fifth starter role as well, but he spent this past season in the bullpen. The Stanford product underwent Tommy John surgery in April ’23. He was sidelined into the beginning of July this year. The Royals used him in relief when he returned. That helped an underperforming bullpen while limiting his workload in his first season back.

The move was a success. Bubic posted excellent numbers over 30 1/3 innings, turning in a 2.67 earned run average while punching out more than 32% of opponents. He got swinging strikes at a huge 14.8% clip while averaging a personal-high 93 MPH on his fastball in short stints. That’s much better than the 4.99 ERA he owns across 60 career starts, although he flashed better velocity and swing-and-miss acumen in a small sample in ’23 before going under the knife.

Kansas City’s bullpen remains a weak point. The Royals could prefer to keep Bubic as a potential leverage piece. There’d be plenty of teams interested in plugging him into their bullpens, while there are presumably clubs that still view him as a rotation target.

Bubic is under arbitration control for two more seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $2.8MM salary. Marsh doesn’t have the same upside but comes with a much longer contractual window. He just surpassed one year of service and is controllable through 2029. He won’t get to arbitration for another two seasons and should have appeal for teams seeking an affordable fifth or sixth starter.

Royals Sign Michael Wacha To Three-Year Deal

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The Royals announced this afternoon that they’ve signed right-hander Michael Wacha to a three-year contract with a club option for the 2028 season. Wacha will earn $18MM in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons and then at least $14MM in 2027, with another $4MM available in incentive bonuses. The $14MM club option for 2028 contains a $1MM buyout.  All in all, the three-year pact will net Wacha at least $51MM in guaranteed money. Wacha is represented by CAA Sports.

Wacha signed a two-year, $32MM free agent deal with Kansas City last offseason that contained an opt-out clause after the first year. It was widely assumed that Wacha would opt out (leaving $16MM on the table) and return to free agency, though this new deal will give Wacha some security after bouncing around the league for the last several years.

The 33-year-old got his start with the Cardinals after being selected in the first round of the 2012 draft, but performed as little more than a back-end starter in seven seasons with St. Louis. After his first forays into free agency saw him post below-average numbers with the Rays and Mets, Wacha managed to turn things around in a big way after signing with the Red Sox on a one-year deal prior to the 2022 season.

In 23 starts with Boston, he posted an excellent 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings of work. Wacha has kept that level of performance up throughout his early thirties, with a 3.30 ERA in 76 starts over the past three years with the Red Sox, Padres, and Royals. That 128 ERA+ is already quality mid-rotation production that most any club would happily take as a part of their starting five, but Wacha’s overall numbers looked even better with Kansas City than they had in his two prior successful campaigns.

Wacha largely maintained a more or less identical strikeout rate (21.2%) to the 21.3% figure he posted from 2022-23, and his walk rate ticked down slightly from 6.9% to 6.6%. Far more important than that, however, is Wacha’s improved ability to suppress hard contact. The right-hander’s hard-hit rate of 32.2% was the lowest Wacha had posted since 2017, while his barrel rate also improved slightly over his 2022-23 figure. Overall, Wacha’s quality of contact numbers were among the best of his career, including the lowest line drive rate he’s ever posted in a full season, plus improved groundball and infield fly ball rates relative to his 2022-23 seasons. Altogether, that improved batted ball data left the righty with not only a strong 3.35 ERA but also a 3.65 FIP that was his best in seven years.

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, the move to keep Wacha in the fold solidifies Kansas City’s rotation entering next season, keeping a front three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Wacha together while Brady Singer, Alec Marsh, and Kyle Wright are among the club’s options for their final two starting jobs. With their rotation perhaps mostly set, the Royals will now surely look to upgrade an offense that generally struggled to produce in 2024 outside of superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. In particular, the Royals figure to look for upgrades to their outfield mix coming off a season where the club’s 79 wRC+ in the outfield was bottom three in baseball ahead of only the White Sox and Pirates.

While Wacha’s fresh contract in Kansas City takes a quality mid-rotation arm off of the market, a number of interesting pitchers remain available this winter. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Jack Flaherty stand at the top of the market, with mid-rotation options like Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino among the players still available in a similar tier to Wacha for the many clubs who figure to be on the hunt for rotation help.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported Wacha’s new deal, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adding the full contract breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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