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MLBTR Podcast: The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Red Sox acquire Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, will they still go after top free agents? (13:15)
  • Could the Reds and Royals line up on a trade involving Jonathan India and Brady Singer or some other Kansas City pitching? (17:25)
  • On the Top 50, none of the writers predicted the Orioles to sign top free agents. Are you underestimating David Rubenstein’s intention to speed up the timeline? (26:05)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Orioles Select Kade Strowd, Brandon Young

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The Orioles announced that they have selected right-handers Kade Strowd and Brandon Young to their 40-man roster, protecting them being available in next month’s Rule 5 draft. The 40-man roster now has 39 players on it.

Strowd, 27, was a 12th-round pick of the Orioles in 2019. He has posted some intriguing numbers in the minors in terms of strikeouts and grounders, but also with a notable amount of walks. Over the past two years, he has thrown 106 2/3 innings with a 5.32 earned run average. His 12.3% walk rate in that time is certainly high but he’s also struck out 28.4% of batters faced while getting grounders on more than half of the balls in play he’s allowed.

Young, 26, signed with the O’s as an undrafted free agent in 2020. He missed decent chunks of both 2022 and 2023 due to elbow surgery but seemed to get back on track this year. He tossed 111 innings over 27 appearances between Double-A and Triple-A with a combined 3.57 ERA. He struck out 28.5% of batters faced while giving out walks just 8% of the time.

Both players have reached Triple-A and will give the O’s some immediate depth in 2025, Strowd in the bullpen and Young in the rotation. The starting staff just lost Corbin Burnes to free agency while Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are going to start the season on the injured list after undergoing surgeries this year. The club will presumably be making some moves to alter their staff in the coming months, but they didn’t want these two to be plucked away by another club in the Rule 5, so they get roster spots today.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Luis Gil Wins American League Rookie Of The Year

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Yankees right-hander Luis Gil has been named the American League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Colton Cowser of the Orioles finished second while Gil’s teammate Austin Wells finished third.

Gil, 26, made his big league debut back in 2021 despite what his eligibility for this award might imply. The right-hander made seven starts in the majors between the 2021 and ’22 seasons, pitching to a 3.78 ERA in those 33 1/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for Gil, the start of his career was derailed in early 2022 by Tommy John surgery, and he did not return to a professional mound until the tail end of the minor league season in 2023. Given his long layoff and the fact that the Yankees entered Spring Training with a solid on-paper rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt, it at first seemed all but certain that the 26-year-old would see his return to the majors further delayed as he began the season in the minors to wait for a big league opportunity.

That opportunity came earlier than anyone expected, however, as Cole missed the entire first half after being diagnosed with a nerve issue in his throwing elbow. That opened the door for Gil to make the Opening Day roster as the club’s fifth starter, and he proceeded to dominate in the early months of the season. In his first twelve starts of the year, Gil delivered a sensational 1.82 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate and a 2.98 FIP across 69 1/3 innings of work. That dominant performance was more than enough to earn him a rotation spot even after Cole returned to the rotation, and while Gil’s performance was far more uneven for the remainder of the season he still entered the month of August with a solid 3.20 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 21 starts.

August proved to be a bumpy month for Gil this season, as he made just three abbreviated starts before ultimately winding up on the injured list due to a back strain. That injury may have contributed to his rough finish to the year, as Gil posted a lackluster 4.38 ERA and 5.76 FIP in eight starts between August and September. Of course, it’s hardly a shock that Gil seemed to lose steam late in the year between his long layoff and the fact that his 151 2/3 innings of work were by far a career high. Overall, his final numbers were solid thanks to his otherworldly start to the year, with a 3.50 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.14 FIP in 29 starts.

The Yankees will not receive a Prospective Promotion Incentive draft pick as a result of Gil’s win, as the right-hander did not appear on the requisite number of top-100 prospect lists in order to qualify for the PPI. That’s not the case for the second place Cowser, who would have earned the Orioles their second consecutive PPI pick and Rookie of the Year win had he won the award. The 24-year-old outfielder turned in an impressive season of his own this year, slashing .242/.321/.447 (120 wRC+) with 24 homers in 153 games while splitting time between left and center field for Baltimore. That impressive showing nearly took home the award, as Cowser received 13 first place votes to Gil’s 15 and actually appeared on 27 ballots as opposed to 26 for Gil.

That split voting continued down the ballot, as Wells finished in third place despite both Athletics closer Mason Miller and Guardians reliever Cade Smith receiving a first place vote a piece while Wells himself did not receive any first place votes. Miller and Smith finished fourth and fifth for the award, respectively, while Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu and Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford finished in sixth and seventh place with a handful of down ballot votes a piece.

Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

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Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market.  Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period.  If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools.  The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision.  This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star.  It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15.  As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers.  Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question.  As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

More from around the baseball world…

  • The meeting between Juan Soto and the Mets took place this past Saturday, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza all in attendance to provide a “very detailed” presentation to the star slugger.  Soto is set to next meet with the Yankees on Monday, and he has previously met with the Blue Jays and Red Sox in these early stages of his free agent adventure.  It isn’t expected that Soto will be signing any time soon, as these initial meetings could be more about laying groundwork than putting any actual offers on the table.
  • Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) that Jorge Mateo is expected “to have a very full, if not a 162, something close to that season” in the aftermath of a UCL brace procedure last August.  Kubatko’s impression was that the Orioles have Mateo in their plans for 2025, which lowers the possibility that the infielder could be cut loose in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline.  Mateo is projected for a $3.2MM arbitration salary, and fits as a non-tender candidate considering between his injury, subpar offense, and the crowded Baltimore infield picture.  The O’s could be an interesting team to watch this week in advance of both the non-tender deadline and Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, as Baltimore could potentially move an infielder or two off the roster in trades.
  • With the Rays set to use George M. Steinbrenner Field as their home for the 2025 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looks at several details involved in the plan.  A lot has naturally yet to be determined, though Topkin answers some questions ranging from team-centric issues like clubhouses and training amenities to fan-related details like how tickets and parking will be managed.  One interesting wrinkle is the fact that the Rays are expected to host playoff games as per usual should the team make the postseason, which creates the awkward potential scenario of the Rays hosting the Yankees in the Yankees’ own Spring Training facility.

Don Ferrarese Passes Away

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Former big league lefty Don Ferrarese passed away earlier this month. He was 95.

Ferrarese was an Oakland native who attended Saint Mary’s in the Bay Area. He began his minor league career in 1948. It took seven seasons for the southpaw to reach the majors with the Orioles. He briefly appeared in the big leagues at age 25 in 1955. Ferrarese worked in a swing capacity for the next couple years. Baltimore traded him to the Indians early in the ’58 season in a deal that netted future All-Star southpaw Bud Daley (whom the O’s would trade to the A’s weeks later).

After one season in Cleveland, Ferrarese was on the move again. The Indians dealt him to the White Sox in a six-player swap. Ferrarese logged limited action with the Phillies and Cardinals before the end of his playing career in 1962. He pitched for five teams over an eight-year MLB run. Ferrarese turned in an even 4.00 earned run average across 506 2/3 innings. He started 50 of 183 appearances, won 19 games and recorded 350 strikeouts. MLBTR sends our condolences to Ferrarese’s family and friends.

Orioles Talking To “High-End” Free Agent Pitchers; Camden Yards’ Left Field Dimensions To Be Changed

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias took part in a video call with reporters (including the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, and MLB.com’s Jake Rill) today, sharing a few guarded details about the club’s offseason pursuits and a major development for Camden Yards’ outfield dimensions.  Elias revealed that the ballpark will have a new left field wall that will be significantly shorter and closer to home plate than the wall that has been in place for the last three seasons.

The old wall will remain in place, stretching from the 373-foot mark in the left field crevice and extending to the Orioles’ bullpen.  However, an unoccupied open area will now sit between the wall and the new left field wall, which Elias said will be closer to home plate by “as much as 20 feet; in others, it’ll be more like 11 feet and as little as nine.”  The deepest distance from home plate to the left-center area of the old wall was 398 feet, but that distance will now be a more manageable 376 feet.  The old wall was also 13 feet high, whereas the new wall’s height will range from 6’11” at its shortest to nine feet tall at its highest.

“Our hope is, by pulling the dimensions in a little bit…that we will be able to get closer to what our initial goal was: a neutral playing environment that assists a balanced style of play at a park that was overly homer-friendly prior to our changes in 2022.  It is now a little overly skewed given what we did back then,” Elias said.

Heightening the wall back in 2022 happened to coincide with a big improvement in the Orioles’ play, as the team has since reeled off three straight winning seasons (and two playoff appearances) due to a marked upgrade in pitching performance.  Baltimore’s 3.94 team ERA ranks tenth in baseball over the last three seasons, and the pitching staff has allowed the ninth-fewest homers (523) of any club in that same span.

According to Statcast’s Park Factor metric, righty batters had more trouble hitting homers at Camden Yards than at almost any other ballpark, save for Cleveland’s Progressive Field and Pittsburgh’s PNC Park.  Unfortunately, this extended to the Orioles’ own batters as well as opposing hitters.  As Rill breaks down the numbers, the Orioles lost more home runs (72) than opponents (65) did at Camden Yards since Opening Day 2022.

“I think it’ll be easier for right-handed hitters to produce power numbers at this park, there’s no question about it.  We wanted, and we want, a park that is neutral, tilting toward pitcher friendliness,” Elias said.  “But, the disparities between the two sides of the park were not the intent, and it had created some dramatic differences and it affected player personnel thought and outcomes in a way that we weren’t anticipating when we made the move.”

Three years of data has now convinced Elias that the past renovations “overcorrected” the initial problem of Camden Yards being too homer-friendly.  Elias made a point of noting that the dimensions weren’t being changed to make it easier for the O’s to attract free agent hitters (particularly right-handed bats), as the GM said that the 2022 alterations weren’t intended as a “permanent” fix in the first place.

“In many ways this may make the park less attractive for pitchers, which is one of the reasons that I initially made this change,” Elias said.

The timing is interesting, as the rotation is certainly a key need for the Orioles this winter.  Corbin Burnes is a free agent and the top arm available on the open market (in the view of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list and many other pundits), leaving Baltimore with a projected top four of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Albert Suarez in the starting five.  Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers are among the candidates vying for the fifth starters’ job at the moment and Kyle Bradish or Tyler Wells could emerge when or if they recover from UCL surgeries at some point in 2025, but there’s no doubt that this pitching staff could use some reinforcement.

To this end, Elias said the Orioles are considering “the whole spectrum” of pitching upgrades.  “If you’re running the team optimally….you’re certainly wanting to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open.  That involves high-end free agent deals over many years.  We’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”

It has been widely expected that the O’s have a higher spending capacity under new owner David Rubenstein than in past years when the Angelos family was controlling the team.  Elias gave “credit [to] the ownership change for putting us in the position to” at least check in at every level of the market, though he again stressed that more payroll flexibility doesn’t mean the Orioles are going to suddenly “spend money indiscriminately this offseason come hell or high water.”

Baltimore has already been linked to Max Fried in early free agent pursuits, as well as interest in White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet on the trade front.  It can be assumed that the Orioles will consider a reunion with Burnes, even if that would likely be the priciest possible way to add to the rotation.  Since Burnes’ departure would recoup the Orioles a compensatory draft pick, the team could opt to let Burnes walk to gain that draft capital, thus perhaps making the O’s more comfortable about surrendering picks if they signed a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent of their own.

Orioles To Add Sherman Johnson To MLB Coaching Staff

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The Orioles are promoting Sherman Johnson to the major league coaching staff, writes Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner. The 34-year-old will work alongside hitting coach Cody Asche and assistant hitting coach Tommy Joseph on the offensive side. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com suggested this morning that a promotion for Johnson could be in the cards.

It’ll be Johnson’s first work on an MLB staff. He has moved very quickly up the coaching ranks. He was playing professionally in the independent American Association as recently as 2022. A Florida State product, he had a nine-year minor league career. Johnson briefly reached the big leagues as a member of the Angels in 2018. He went hitless in 10 at-bats. A lefty batter, he showed good plate discipline with minimal power in the minors.

Johnson didn’t move into coaching until 2023. Baltimore hired him as a hitting instructor with their Double-A team in Bowie. He spent this past season as a minor league hitting coordinator. It seems he built a quick rapport with a number of the O’s prospects. Johnson coached Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo with Bowie and should get to work with them again at Camden Yards.

Baltimore has opted for a fairly inexperienced group of hitting instructors. Asche, also 34, is a lead hitting coach for the first time after two years as an assistant on Brandon Hyde’s staff. Joseph, 33, is going into his second season as an MLB coach. He spent this year with the Mariners in an assistant role.

Red Sox To Name Chris Holt Bullpen Coach

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Former Orioles pitching director Chris Holt has reached an agreement to become the Red Sox’ new bullpen coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Holt has already received a formal offer, and the hiring could become official next week, per Kubatko.

Holt departed Baltimore’s staff at the end of the season as the organization underwent a coaching overhaul in the wake of a limp to the finish line and a second consecutive quick postseason exit. He was one of several coaches/instructors to be replaced, joining hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte.

Baltimore general manager Mike Elias was familiar with Holt from the pair’s time together in the Astros organization. He hired Holt away as the Orioles’ new minor league pitching coordinator in 2019. Holt rose to the title of major league pitching coach and was eventually bumped up even further, being tasked with overseeing the entire organization’s pitching practice. Holt held those roles concurrently in an effort to form a cohesive top-down vision throughout the team’s big league staff and pitching development efforts.

Holt will join the Red Sox staff with a narrower focus in his responsibilities. He’ll join a revamped pitching practice in Boston that began when Craig Breslow, a former big league reliever who’s entering his second season as the team’s chief baseball officer, hired former Sox reliever Andrew Bailey away from the Giants to serve as the club’s new pitching coach. Holt will also work closely with another Breslow hire from last offseason: Red Sox director of pitching Justin Willard (the same role Holt held in Baltimore and that Breslow himself held with the Cubs before landing the top job in Boston).

Holt fills a role that was vacated when the Sox dismissed six coaches, including bullpen coach Kevin Walker, at season’s end. Walker had been in place since being hired by former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom back in 2020.

Nick Pivetta Unlikely To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.

Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).

Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.

Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).

It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.

Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesn’t feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far.

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