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Blue Jays’ Shapiro On Guerrero Jr.: “I Think We’re Going To Extend Him”

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3:38pm: Guerrero himself reacted to Shapiro’s comments, per Hazel Mae and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet: “I’ve always felt good about the whole thing. I’m good with that. Just going to keep working very hard and be optimistic, too. Not going to shut the door on them… I’ll be open. But I’m going to leave that to my agents to work with that. If there’s something there, they’re going to continue to work with that. I’m just going to be on the field, focusing on my teammates, on my team, on my game.”

11:03am: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s self-imposed deadline for an extension — the first full day of spring training — came and went more than a month ago, with no deal coming to fruition. Guerrero has left the door slightly cracked, indicating that while he doesn’t plan to negotiate any further, he’d be amenable to hearing the Jays out if they presented a new offer. That mindset is all the more notable now, given that Jays CEO Mark Shapiro flatly stated this morning that he expects to eventually agree to an extension with the team’s star first baseman (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Said Shapiro:

“…I guess my overarching feeling is one of optimism. I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him. The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome. Vlad wants to play his whole career as a Toronto Blue Jay. We want him to end his career in a Blue Jays uniform to be a true legacy player for the Toronto Blue Jays. … Could be before free agency, could be during free agency, but I’m optimistic we will sign him.”

Details surrounding both Guerrero’s asking price and the Blue Jays’ most recent offer have trickled out in the weeks since his deadline passed. Guerrero himself made clear he wasn’t seeking anything close to Juan Soto’s $765MM guarantee with the Mets; he sought under $600MM in guaranteed money over a 14- or 15-year deal. Subsequent reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, and Davidi shed further light on negotiations. Guerrero reportedly sought a net-present value of $500MM, and while the Jays are said to have offered a figure close to $500MM, deferred money pushed the present-day value down closer to $450MM.

Though that paints a broad picture of where things stand, Shapiro cautioned today (without citing specifically reported numbers) that the gap isn’t quite as straightforward as the ostensible $50MM separating the reported offer and asking price. “That’s an oversimplification based upon only part of the information,” Shapiro said (via MLB.com’s Keegan Mattheson).

Shapiro’s candor and optimistic tone on eventually hammering out a long-term deal come not long after Hector Gomez of the Dominican Republic’s Z101 Sports reported that the Jays are preparing a new offer for Guerrero. While it’s still not clear whether a new offer will be made prior to Opening Day, Shapiro’s comments do lend some credence to the idea that a new proposal could be forthcoming before long.

Despite the fact that he just turned 26 this past Sunday, Guerrero is entering his final season of club control. He’ll earn $28.5MM in 2025 after avoiding arbitration this winter. He’ll be a year older than Soto was when Soto hit the market, but Guerrero is nevertheless poised to reach free agency with a rare blend of youth and premium offensive track record.

Although the first two seasons of Guerrero’s career — his age-20 and age-21 efforts — were “only” a bit above average, he broke out with an MVP-caliber performance in 2021. His 2022-23 production was very strong but not quite up to that 2021 standard. He bounced back to elite levels in 2024. Overall, since that 2021 breakout, Guerrero has turned in a monstrous .293/.370/.517 batting line with 136 home runs in 2783 plate appearances — about 45% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

Guerrero delivered nearly unrivaled batted-ball and bat speed grades last year while turning in a career-low 13.8% strikeout rate against a 10.3% walk rate that sits as the second-highest mark of his big league tenure. Per Statcast, he ranked in at least the 91st percentile of MLB hitters in barrel rate (91st percentile), bat speed (95th), hard-hit rate (97th), average exit velocity (98th), expected slugging percentage (98th) and expected wOBA (98th). No hitter in MLB had a higher maximum exit velocity or expected batting average.

Guerrero has also been extremely durable, trailing only Marcus Semien in total plate appearances since 2021. In that same span, he’s tied with Yordan Alvarez for the sixth-most homers in MLB and also sits sixth with 405 runs driven in. Guerrero ranks 10th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage over the past four years. Defense and baserunning are obvious strikes against him, but Guerrero has been one of MLB’s ten best hitters in the aggregate since Opening Day 2021 — including two seasons where he’s been flat-out elite.

Based on Guerrero’s premium bat-to-ball skills, bat speed and batted-ball metrics, there’s little reason to expect him to markedly decline in the near future. As with any mega-deal, the latter half of the contract is likely to be painful, but that’s generally accepted as the cost of doing business when signing star-caliber players of this nature in the heart of their prime.

36 Veteran Players With Looming Opt-Out Dates

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The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement implemented a new series of uniform opt-out dates for players who qualified as free agents under Article XX(b) of said agreement and sign a minor league deal in free agency. More specifically, that designation falls on players with six-plus years of MLB service time who finished the preceding season on a major league roster or injured list. Some contracts for players coming over from a foreign professional league like Nippon Professional Baseball or the Korea Baseball Organization will also have language written into their contracts allowing them to qualify as an XX(b) free agent despite a lack of six years of service.

The three uniform opt-out dates on those contracts land five days before Opening Day, on May 1 and on June 1. With the regular season set to kick off next week, any Article XX(b) free agents who are in camp on minor league contracts will have the opportunity to opt out on Saturday, March 22. A player triggering one of these out clauses gives his current club 48 hours to either add him to the 40-man roster or let him become a free agent.

There are other ways to secure opt-outs in contracts, of course. Many players who don’t qualify for XX(b) designation will still have opt-out opportunities negotiated into their minor league deals in free agency.

The following is a list of 36 players who are in camp as non-roster invitees and will be able to opt out this weekend. Most were XX(b) free agents, but there are a handful of names who didn’t meet that requirement but had outs negotiated into their respective deals nonetheless. This is not a comprehensive list of all players with opt-out opportunities this weekend.

All spring stats referenced are accurate through the completion of games played Wednesday, March 19.

Astros: LHP Jalen Beeks

Beeks, 31, was a relatively late sign (March 7) who’s since tossed three spring frames — including two scoreless innings just yesterday. He logged a 4.50 ERA in 70 innings between the Rockies and Pirates last season. He struggled to miss bats last year but typically runs strong strikeout rates. Dating back to 2020, Beeks carries a 4.16 ERA in 192 2/3 innings. In Josh Hader, Bryan King and Bennett Sousa, the Astros already have three lefty relievers on the 40-man. Another veteran non-roster invitee, Steven Okert, has rattled off 8 2/3 shutout spring innings with a 14-to-2 K/BB ratio. Beeks might have long odds of cracking the roster.

Blue Jays: RHP Jacob Barnes, LHP Ryan Yarbrough

The 34-year-old Barnes logged a 4.36 ERA in a career-high 66 big league innings last season. He posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the five preceding seasons (a total of 115 1/3 frames). He’s been tagged for four runs in 5 1/3 innings this spring.

Yarbrough, 33, had a terrific run with the Jays to close out the 2024 season. Joining Toronto in a deadline swap sending Kevin Kiermaier to the Dodgers, the veteran southpaw posted a 2.01 ERA in 31 1/3 innings. He’s a soft-tosser, sitting just 86.5 mph with his heater, but Yarbrough can pitch multiple innings in relief and has a decent track record even beyond last year’s overall 3.19 earned run average (4.21 ERA in 768 MLB innings). He’s allowed three runs with and 8-to-1 K/BB ratio in 6 2/3 innings in camp.

Braves: RHP Buck Farmer, RHP Hector Neris

Farmer was already reassigned to minor league camp on Sunday, so there’d seem to be a good chance of him taking his out. The 34-year-old turned in a terrific 3.04 ERA in 71 innings for the Reds last year but was probably hampered by his age, pedestrian velocity and subpar command in free agency. With a 3.68 ERA in 193 innings over the past three seasons in Cincinnati, he should find an opportunity somewhere — even if it’s not in Atlanta.

Neris is still in Braves camp. He signed well into camp and thus has only pitched one official inning so far, which was scoreless. (Neris is pitching today as well.) He’s looking to bounce back from a 4.10 ERA and a particularly poor performance in save opportunities last year. Prior to his nondescript 2024, Neris rattled off a 3.03 ERA in 208 innings from 2021-23 between Philly and Houston, saving 17 games and collecting 67 holds along the way.

Brewers: 1B/OF Mark Canha, OF Manuel Margot

He’s had a brutal spring, but the 36-year-old Canha has been an above-average hitter every year since 2018, by measure of wRC+. He’s just 2-for-23 in Brewers camp, but he’s slugged a homer and walked as often as he’s fanned (four times apiece). Milwaukee has Rhys Hoskins at first base, but Canha could chip in at DH and offer a right-handed complement to lefty outfielders Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell.

Margot hasn’t hit well in a tiny sample of 35 spring plate appearances, but he’s outproduced Canha with a .250/.314/.375 slash. He’s coming off a dismal .238/.289/.337 showing in Minnesota, however, and hasn’t been the plus defender he was prior to a major 2022 knee injury. Like Canha, he could complement Frelick and Mitchell as a righty-swinging outfielder, but Canha has been the far more productive bat in recent seasons.

Cubs: RHP Chris Flexen

The Cubs reassigned Flexen to minor league camp after just 3 2/3 innings this spring. He was hit hard on the other side of town with the White Sox in 2024, though Flexen quietly righted the ship after an awful start. He posted a 5.69 ERA through nine starts but logged a 4.62 mark over his final 21 trips to the mound, including a tidy 3.52 earned run average across 46 innings in his last eight starts. Flexen may not bounce back to his 2021-22 numbers in Seattle, but he’s a durable fifth starter if nothing else.

Diamondbacks: INF/OF Garrett Hampson, RHP Scott McGough

The D-backs don’t really have a backup shortstop while Blaze Alexander is sidelined with an oblique strain, which seems to bode well for Hampson. He’s hitting .235/.333/.324 in camp and can play three infield spots and three outfield positions. He had a bleak .230/.275/.300 performance in Kansas City last year but was a league-average hitter for the Marlins as recently as 2023.

McGough was reassigned to minor league camp yesterday after serving up six runs in 4 2/3 innings of spring work. That wasn’t the follow-up to last year’s gruesome 7.44 ERA for which the 35-year-old righty or the team had hoped.

Giants: C Max Stassi, RHP Lou Trivino

Stassi is battling Sam Huff, who’s on the 40-man, for the backup catcher’s role while Tom Murphy is injured. The 34-year-old Stassi is hitting .300/.364/.700 with a pair of homers in 22 spring plate appearances. He’s a plus defender with a scattershot track record at the plate.

Trivino hasn’t pitched since 2022 due to Tommy John surgery and a separate shoulder issue. He also hasn’t allowed a run in 8 1/3 spring innings. (9-to-4 K/BB ratio). Trivino’s scoreless Cactus League showing, his pre-injury track record and his familiarity with skipper Bob Melvin — his manager in Oakland — all seem to give him a real chance to win a spot.

Mariners: RHP Shintaro Fujinami, RHP Trevor Gott, 1B Rowdy Tellez

Fujinami’s command has never been good, and he’s walked more batters (seven) than he’s struck out (four) through 5 2/3 spring innings. He’s also plunked a pair of batters. He’s looking to bounce back from an injury-ruined 2024 season but might have to take his first steps toward doing so in Triple-A.

Tellez has had a big camp and looks like he could have a real chance to make the club in a part-time DH/first base role, as explored more yesterday. Gott is on the mend from Tommy John surgery performed last March and won’t pitch until midseason. He’s unlikely to opt out.

Mets: RHP Jose Ureña

Ureña was torched for seven runs in his first 1 1/3 spring innings after signing with the Mets on Feb. 27. He bounced back by striking out all three opponents he faced in an inning this past weekend, but he hasn’t helped himself otherwise. Ureña’s 3.80 ERA in 109 innings with Texas last year was his first sub-5.00 ERA since 2017-18 in Miami.

Padres: 1B Yuli Gurriel, INF Jose Iglesias

Both veterans have a legitimate chance to make the club. Gurriel has had a productive spring (.296/.321/.519) at nearly 41 years of age, while Iglesias is out to a 5-for-18 start since signing in mid-March. Gurriel could split time at first and DH, lessening the need to use Luis Arraez in the field. Iglesias could see frequent work at second base, shifting Jake Cronenworth to first base and pushing Arraez to DH. The Padres probably wouldn’t have put a hefty (relative to most minor league deals) $3MM base salary on Iglesias’ deal if they didn’t see a real path to him making the roster.

Pirates: LHP Ryan Borucki

Borucki was great for the Pirates in 2023 and struggled through 11 innings during an injury-marred 2024 season. The 30-year-old southpaw has allowed one run in eight spring innings. His five walks are a bit much, but he’s also fanned 11 of his 33 opponents.

Rangers: SS Nick Ahmed, RHP David Buchanan, RHP Jesse Chavez, OF Kevin Pillar, RHP Hunter Strickland

Ahmed has more homers in 28 spring plate appearances than he had in 228 plate appearances in 2024 or 210 plate appearances in 2023. He’s popped three round-trippers already and slashed .286/.310/.607. With a crowded infield and versatile backups like Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran, Ahmed might still have a hard time cracking the roster.

None of the three pitchers listed here has performed well in limited work. Buchanan had a nice run as a starter in the KBO in the four preceding seasons, while Chavez has been a mainstay in the Atlanta bullpen for much of the past few years. Strickland had a nice 2024 in Anaheim but signed very late and retired only one of the five batters he faced during his long spring outing.

Pillar may have the best chance of the bunch to make the team. He’s hitting .273/.333/.394 in 39 plate appearances. Outfielders Wyatt Langford and Adolis Garcia have been banged up this spring, so some extra outfield depth could make sense.

Rays: DH/OF Eloy Jimenez

Jimenez homered for the second time yesterday, boosting his Grapefruit line to .263/.300/.447. He’s coming off a dreadful season in 2024, but from 2019-23 the former top prospect raked at a .275/.324/.487 pace, including a 31-homer rookie campaign (admittedly, in the juiced-ball 2019 season). Durability has been a bigger factor than productivity. If the Rays can get Jimenez to elevate the ball more, he could be a bargain; he’s still only 28.

Red Sox: LHP Matt Moore, RHP Adam Ottavino

Moore signed on Feb. 20 and has only gotten into two spring games so far, totaling two innings. Ottavino has pitched four innings but allowed five runs. He’s walked five and tossed a pair of wild pitches in that time. Both pitchers have long MLB track records, but they’re both coming off lackluster seasons.

Reds: LHP Wade Miley

Miley underwent Tommy John surgery early last season and contemplated retirement upon learning his prognosis. He wanted to return to one of his former NL Central clubs in free agency, and the Reds clearly offered a more compelling minor league deal than the Brewers. He’s not going to be a realistic option until late May, and it seems unlikely he’d opt out while his rehab is still ongoing.

Rockies: RHP Jake Woodford

Woodford isn’t an Article XX(b) free agent, but MLBTR has learned that he still has a March 22 opt-out. He made his fourth appearance of Rockies camp yesterday, tossing 2 2/3 innings with an earned run. Woodford has allowed seven runs on 11 hits and three walks with five punchouts and a nice 47.2% grounder rate in 10 2/3 frames this spring. He has experience as a starter and reliever. The righty doesn’t miss many bats but keeps the ball on the ground and has good command. He’s a fifth starter/swingman who’s out of minor league options.

Royals: C Luke Maile, RHP Ross Stripling

Maile is a glove-first backup who’s had a nice spring at the plate but has done so on a team with a healthy Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin. His path to a roster spot doesn’t look great. Speculatively, his former Reds club, which just lost Tyler Stephenson to begin the year, would make sense if they plan to add an outside catcher. Maile’s .214/.294/.329 performance over the past three seasons is light, but he’s already familiar with the bulk of Cincinnati’s staff. He’s a fine backup or No. 3 catcher for any club, Kansas City included.

Stripling notched a 3.01 ERA in 124 innings for the 2022 Blue Jays, but it’s been rough waters since. He was rocked for a 5.68 ERA across the past two seasons, spending time with both Bay Area clubs, and has been tagged for 11 runs on 14 hits — four of them homers — with just two strikeouts in six spring frames. He’ll likely need a strong Triple-A showing, be it with the Royals or another club, to pitch his way back to the majors.

Tigers: LHP Andrew Chafin

Chafin surprisingly commanded only a minor league deal this offseason and has struggled to begin his third stint with the Tigers. He’s been tagged for eight runs in four spring innings, walking six batters along the way. It’s a rough look, but the affable southpaw notched a 3.51 ERA in 56 1/3 MLB frames last year and touts a 3.12 mark across the past four seasons combined.

White Sox: RHP Mike Clevinger, INF Brandon Drury, OF Travis Jankowski

The ChiSox signed Clevinger for a third time late this spring and are trying him in the bullpen. He’s responded with four shutout innings, allowing only one hit and no walks while fanning six hitters. His 2025 White Sox reunion is out to a much better start than his 2024 reunion, wherein he was limited to only 16 innings with a 6.75 ERA thanks to elbow and neck troubles.

Drury could hardly be doing more to secure a spot with the Pale Hose. He’s decimated Cactus League pitching at a .410/.439/.821 pace, slugging three homers and seven doubles in only 41 plate appearances. He’s coming off a terrible 2024 showing with the Angels but hit .263/.313/.493 from 2021-23. It’d be a surprise if the Sox didn’t keep him.

Jankowski started the spring with the Cubs, was granted his release and signed with the Sox. The hits haven’t been dropping, but he has six walks in 25 plate appearances. The White Sox already have Michael A. Taylor in a fourth outfield role. Andrew Benintendi, who missed three-plus weeks with a fractured hand, was back in the lineup yesterday, making Jankowski something of a long shot.

Yankees: RHP Carlos Carrasco

With a nice spring showing and several injuries in the Yankees’ rotation, Carrasco looks to have a good chance at making the roster. Jack Curry of the YES Network already reported it’s “likely” Carrasco will be added this weekend. Carrasco has a 1.69 ERA with 15 strikeouts and seven walks (plus four hit batters) in 16 spring innings. He tossed five shutout frames yesterday.

Blue Jays Select Richard Lovelady

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The Blue Jays announced that they have selected the contract of left-hander Richard Lovelady. Right-hander Alek Manoah, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, has been transferred to the 60-day injured list as a corresponding move. Hazel Mae of Sportsnet announced the moves prior to the official announcement.

Lovelady, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Jays in January. He made his seventh appearance today, allowing one earned run, pushing his earned run average to 5.14. That’s obviously not an incredibly impressive number but the southpaw does have eight strikeouts in seven innings.

Prior to joining the Jays, Lovelady’s track record has been that of a groundballer. He has 99 1/3 innings in the big leagues, spending time with the Royals, Athletics, Cubs and Rays. In that time, his 21.1% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate were close to league average, but with a strong 50.9% ground ball rate. With the Jays this spring, he came into today with a grounder rate of just 35.7%. Today’s outing went walk, ground ball double play, homer, ground ball single, walk, ground out.

For the Jays, Opening Day is still over a week away. Adding Lovelady to the roster now seems to suggest that he had some sort of opt-out in his deal and the Jays didn’t want him to get away. Left-handed relief is one of the bigger question marks on the Toronto roster. The Jays also have Brendon Little, Josh Walker and Easton Lucas on the 40-man but they all have options and each has less than 50 innings of major league experience.

Lovelady himself is out of options, but it seems he is not guaranteed a spot. Mae relays word from manager John Schneider that Lovelady is still trying to earn a spot on the active roster, even though he’s now on the 40-man. Although the Jays have added Lovelady now to prevent him from opting out, they may still decide to designate him for assignment when their season starts next week. If he ends up on waivers, perhaps some other club will be enticed and put in a claim.

If he were to clear waivers, what would happen next could depend on what salary figures are in his minor league deal. Lovelady has at least three years of service time, which gives him the right to reject an outright assignment. But since he has less than five years of service, electing free agency means walking away from whatever money he is still owed on his deal. The salary figures on his pact haven’t been publicly reported.

That means there’s a possible sequence of events where the Jays select his contract today and then pass him through waivers next week, with Lovelady then deciding to stick around in order to keep the money from this deal flowing. But it’s also possible that he cracks the Opening Day roster, or winds up bouncing to another club.

Blue Jays Sign Justin Bruihl To Minors Deal

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The Blue Jays have signed left-hander Justin Bruihl to a minor league contract, according to Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media.  Bruihl elected minor league free agency at the end of the 2024 season, after he had been outrighted off the Pirates’ 40-man roster back in July.

Brendon Little is expected to be part of the Opening Day roster and Josh Walker is also competing for a bullpen job, but Easton Lucas and the injured Adam Macko are the only other southpaws on Toronto’s 40-man roster.  Bruihl therefore adds a little more depth in that area, and this signing fairly late in camp might hint that the Jays aren’t entirely satisfied with their selection of left-handers.  It would seem unlikely that Bruihl himself could make a late bid to break camp with the team since he is only now moving from his offseason preparations into a proper Spring Training ramp-up, so he’ll probably start the season with Triple-A Buffalo.

Bruihl has appeared in each of the last four MLB seasons, topping out at 28 innings with the Dodgers and Rockies in 2023 and with a low of just 5 2/3 frames with Pittsburgh last season.  Overall, Bruihl has a 4.62 ERA, 15.9% strikeout rate, 46.2% grounder rate, and 7.9% walk rate across his 76 total innings in the big leagues.

His 26.55% strikeout rate over 211 1/3 career minor league innings is far higher than his lackluster K% in the majors, but Bruihl hasn’t been able to duplicate that bat-missing ability against big-league hitters.  Bruihl might have been the type of pitcher who would’ve thrived before the three-batter rule was implemented, given his drastic career splits — left-handed batters had only a .507 OPS against Bruihl, while right-handed batters have a .918 OPS.

Latest On Erik Swanson

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Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson is dealing with a median nerve entrapment in his throwing arm, as the Jays announced to MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters yesterday.  Swanson received a cortisone shot to deal with the issue, and won’t throw for a few days while the shot takes effect.

It still seems likely that this setback is enough to put Swanson on the injured list at the beginning of the season, as was related last week when Swanson reported discomfort in his throwing elbow.  An MRI came back clean without any sign of structural damage, so Swanson has at least avoided any kind of longer-term elbow problem.

A median nerve entrapment (which is related to carpal tunnel syndrome) isn’t exactly a small matter since nerve issues have no set recovery timeline.  On the plus side, there hasn’t been any indication that Swanson might miss any great amount of time, even if a more concrete plan might not be known until the right-hander starts throwing again.

Acquired from the Mariners in the 2022-2023 offseason, Swanson was outstanding in his first year in Toronto, but injuries contributed to a rough start to his 2024 campaign.  Swanson dealt with some forearm tightness during last year’s Spring Training and a subsequent IL stint delayed his start to the season, and he then struggled so badly over his first 18 appearances that he was sent to Triple-A.  Swanson returned to the big leagues after the All-Star break and then seemed like his old self, making for some rather glaring splits — a 9.20 ERA in 14 2/3 innings in the first half and a 2.55 ERA over 24 2/3 frames in the second half.

Given the dismal state of Toronto’s bullpen last season, the Blue Jays badly need Swanson to stay healthy and fully bounce back to his past form as a key setup man.  New signing Jeff Hoffman looks to be in line for the closer’s job, with Chad Green, Yimi Garcia, Nick Sandlin, and Swanson all lined up for high-leverage work.

Poll: Should The Blue Jays Have Offered Vladimir Guerrero Jr. $500MM?

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Active extension talks between the Blue Jays and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came to an apparent halt last month. The beginning of Spring Training, which Guerrero set as a deadline for negotiations, came and went without a deal. But that hasn’t stopped those negotiations from being a major topic of discussion around baseball in the weeks since.

Some of that publicity has been created by Guerrero himself; while extension negotiations are often played relatively close to the vest by both players and their clubs, Guerrero has been unusually candid about the negotiations throughout the process. His public comments have ranged from acknowledging back in December that the Jays had extended him a $340MM offer to his recent interview with ESPN where he suggested his asking price clocked in below $600MM over at least 14 years.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Guerrero set his asking price at a net present value of $500MM in negotiations with Toronto, whether the deal was a straight $500MM contract with no deferrals or a higher sticker price including deferred money that took the net present value back down to $500MM. The Jays reportedly did offer Guerrero about $500MM, but with deferrals that knocked the net present value down to the $400-450MM range, so the two sides were about $50-100MM apart in terms of NPV.

It’s an interesting development, not only for the window it provides into Guerrero’s thinking with his final season prior to free agency just around the corner, but also because of how rare it is for a player’s asking price to be reported on so specifically. With reasonable confidence in the knowledge that Guerrero would have accepted a 14-year, $500MM contract offer from the Jays, the decision by Toronto not to offer Guerrero that deal is an especially interesting point of discussion.

It’s easy to see why Guerrero would feel comfortable asking for that sort of contract. The slugger is coming off a superb season at the plate for the Blue Jays last year where he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, a strikeout rate of just 13.8%, and a wRC+ of 165. The performance was good for a sixth-place finish in the AL’s stacked MVP race last year, and in terms of overall production was more or less a perfect replica of his 2021 campaign where he posted a 166 wRC+ and finished second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. With two seasons of that caliber now under his belt, it’s impossible to argue against the fact that Guerrero is one of the league’s most explosive offensive talents.

That lofty ceiling with the bat is made all the more tantalizing by his youth; Guerrero will play next year at just 27 years old, one year older than Juan Soto is now. Soto stands as perhaps the best reason for Guerrero to feel emboldened to set his asking price at half a billion dollars. After all, the star outfielder’s combination of youth and offensive prowess allowed him to land a 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets back in December. It’s the richest contract in the history of professional sports and completely shattered all contractual precedents. Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s own $700MM deal with the Dodgers, which has an estimated net present value of $461MM, Soto’s contract includes no deferred money.

In that context, Guerrero setting his asking price at approximately two-thirds of Soto’s deal is understandable. After all, neither player contributes much in the field or on the basepaths, and when Guerrero is at his best he’s easily the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability. The Blue Jays themselves clearly saw Soto as a player worth splurging on, as they were a finalist for his services. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported back in December that the Jays’ offer to Soto clocked in under $700MM, but that shows that Toronto has the financial wherewithal to make a massive offer and a willingness to put pen to paper on such a deal for a player relatively similar to Guerrero. As mentioned earlier, they also made a substantial offer to Guerrero that went beyond $400MM in terms of NPV.

With that being said, the comparison isn’t without flaws. Guerrero is already more or less restricted to first base defensively, while Soto is capable of playing passable defense in the outfield corners and likely could theoretically move to first base in the future, as other corner outfielders like Bryce Harper have done in the past. More important than either his slightly more versatile defensive skill set or the fact that he hit free agency one year younger than Guerrero will, however, is the fact that Soto is simply in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s aforementioned peak seasons.

Setting Soto aside, there are valid reasons for concern when it comes to Guerrero. The slugger has shown a level of year-to-year volatility that could be difficult to stomach for a franchise cornerstone on what would be the second-largest contract in MLB history, and is just one year removed from a lackluster 2023 campaign where he posted a wRC+ of 118 with just 1.3 fWAR. One also doesn’t have to look very far to find first basemen who were comparable or even greater offensive talents than Guerrero at his age but saw their production take a nosedive in their early 30s. Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols stand out as the most obvious examples of the pitfalls that can come with offering even immense offensive talents franchise-altering contracts under the assumption they’ll remain productive into their mid-to-late 30s.

Another consideration that must be taken into account from Toronto’s perspective is the club’s own prospects of near-term success at the big league level. The Jays, as presently constructed, feature an aging roster with plenty of holes and question marks that figure to only grow in the coming seasons as veterans like Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios continue to age while pieces of the club’s core like Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk reach free agency. The club is coming off a fifth-place finish in the AL East last year and is projected by Fangraphs for a record of just 82-80, less than a full win ahead of the Rays for fourth place and behind the Yankees’ division leading projection of 86-76. If Toronto were to enter a rebuild in the near future after giving Guerrero a massive contract, they’d risk wasting the prime of their superstar’s career and returning to contention only when his best years are already behind him.

If you were in the Blue Jays’ shoes, would you have signed on the dotted line to keep Guerrero in the fold on a 14-year, $500MM contract? Have your say in the poll below:

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays came up short on most (but not all) of their many pursuits of star free agents this winter, and the ship may have already sailed on the team's efforts to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension.  Amidst all the pessimism surrounding the Jays' future, the team did make some notable moves to try and reload the roster after a disappointing 2024 campaign.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $59MM (not counting Tate/Walker)
Total spending: $156MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Toronto hitters combined for only 156 home runs and a .389 slugging percentage in 2024, so a 44-homer bat like Anthony Santander should bring some much-needed thunder to the lineup.  The Blue Jays made a hefty $92.5MM investment that Santander can build on the career year that saw him hit .235/.308/.506 over 665 plate appearances for the Orioles, while handily topping his previous high of 33 homers (in 2022).

Santander's overall hitting profile is a concern, as evidenced by the low batting average and OBP.  However, Santander still posted an above-average walk rate despite the low on-base number, and his strikeout rate remained above average in 2024 even though chasing pitches has been an issue for his entire career.  The switch-hitter is certainly a power-first (if not quite a power-only) type of batter, yet the profile fits for a Jays team lacking in pop and in left-handed hitting balance.

Santander will step right into the lineup as the everyday left fielder, and he'll probably get a decent share of DH time given that his glovework is considered only passable.  As defense-focused as the Blue Jays have been over the last couple of years, they continued to move in that direction with a surprising trade for arguably the sport's best defensive second baseman.

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Padres Have Received Interest From Around Nine Teams On Dylan Cease

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Around nine teams have been in contact with the Padres to express interest in Dylan Cease, writes Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman lists the Cubs, Mets and all five AL East teams among that group. The remaining two clubs are unknown, though The Athletic reported in January that the Twins had shown interest.

A pre-Opening Day trade still seems highly unlikely. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote earlier this week that the Padres were only willing to entertain trading their top starter if they received a significant offensive upgrade in the return package. They’d almost certainly want a controllable starting pitcher who could immediately replace Cease in the rotation as well. That’s a difficult asking price for another team to meet, especially without impactful hitters remaining in free agency to backfill the lineup.

Cease was traded midway through last year’s Spring Training. That was a different situation, as the White Sox were in full rebuild mode when they dealt him to the Padres. San Diego expects to compete for a playoff spot despite budget limitations that kept them from doing much of significance until they added Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year deal. Cease worked 189 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball during his first season in San Diego. He struck out 29.4% of opponents and fanned 224 hitters overall — his fourth consecutive season above the 200 mark.

The Padres and Cease agreed to a $13.75MM salary for his final arbitration season. He’d be a lock for a qualifying offer when he hits free agency next winter unless the Friars deal him midseason, which would make him ineligible to receive the QO. Cease will be heading into his age-30 season and could command a contract above $200MM. While the Padres don’t seem optimistic about their chances of re-signing him, they’d obviously take a major downgrade to this year’s rotation if they trade him.

Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the Orioles and Cubs were monitoring the rotation market. Baltimore will begin the season without Grayson Rodriguez. Chicago’s rotation hasn’t taken any huge injury hits, though they’ll be without Javier Assad for a few weeks. They’re reportedly in talks with free agent Lance Lynn, who’d be a much less costly but far lower-upside addition at the back of the rotation.

The Mets (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea) and Yankees (Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil) have each lost multiple starters to injuries this spring. It has been particularly rough in the Bronx. Gil will likely miss the first half of the season with a lat strain. Cole will be out into the middle of 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Nevertheless, respective baseball operations leaders David Stearns and Brian Cashman have indicated the New York teams are content with their internal options to weather those losses.

Boston already parted with two top prospects to add an impact starter in the Garrett Crochet deal. Toronto and Tampa Bay have rotations that arguably each run six deep. The Jays are likely to use Yariel Rodríguez in long relief. The Rays could consider trading one of their starters to settle on a five-man group. That could theoretically position Toronto or Tampa Bay to include a controllable starter in a Cease package, though there’s nothing to suggest the Padres are in anything more than due diligence mode with Opening Day two weeks off.

Blue Jays Re-Sign Dillon Tate

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March 12: The Jays officially announced their signing of Tate today. Bastardo was transferred to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report report that Tate’s deal is a split contract that pays him at a $1.4MM rate in the majors and includes bonuses of $50K for reaching 45 and 50 games pitched.

Since Tate is on a split deal and has a minor league option remaining, he can be sent to Triple-A Buffalo without first needing to clear waivers — at least for the time being. He’s at 4.144 years of major league service, placing him just 28 days away from the five-year mark. Once players reach five years of MLB service time, they can’t be optioned without their consent.

March 10: The Blue Jays and right-hander Dillon Tate have agreed to a major league deal, pending a physical, reports Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. The details of the deal for the CAA Sports client have not yet been publicly reported. The Jays will have to open a 40-man roster spot but could easily do so by moving Alek Manoah or Angel Bastardo, who both had Tommy John surgery last June, to the 60-day injured list.

Tate, 31 in May, was with Toronto briefly at the end of last year. The Jays claimed him off waivers from the Orioles on the first day of September. They optioned him to Triple-A, recalling him to the majors on September 18. He made four appearances with the big league club as the season was winding down. The Jays could have retained him via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $1.9MM salary, but the club non-tendered him instead.

Prior to that brief stint with the Jays, Tate’s journey had many ups and downs. One of the top names going into the 2015 draft, the Rangers took him with the fourth overall pick. Initially a top prospect, his stock wobbled a bit with some health woes. The Rangers flipped him to the Yankees in the August 2016 trade that sent Carlos Beltrán to Texas. He posted some decent numbers in the Yankees’ system but also missed time with shoulder troubles. He was then traded to the Orioles as part of the July 2018 trade that sent Zack Britton to the Yankees.

Tate was with the Orioles for the six-plus years from that Britton trade to being claimed off waivers by the Jays. Though he had been a starting pitching prospect, the O’s moved him to a relief role, perhaps in response to the injuries he had already been battling. Since then, he has occasionally shown flashes of potential as a reliever but the health woes have continued to get in the way.

From 2019 to 2022, Tate logged 179 innings out of the Baltimore bullpen. His 19.4% strikeout rate in that time was subpar but he limited walks to a 7.2% rate and also got ground balls at an excellent 58.1% clip. Among pitchers with at least 170 innings in that time frame, only Clay Holmes, Framber Valdez, Richard Bleier and Josh Fleming kept the ball on the ground at a better rate.

However, a forearm/flexor strain kept Tate on the IL for the entire 2023 season. He returned to the mound last season with his results backing up a bit. He tossed 36 2/3 innings between the orange and blue birds, with a 4.66 ERA. His strikeout rate and ground ball rate fell to 16.5% and 49.6% respectively. His fastball velocity, which averaged as high as 95.5 miles per hour in 2021, was down to just 92.6 mph last year.

Amid those struggles, both the Orioles and Jays sent him to the minors at times. He had better results down there, tossing 21 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 2.08 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate, though his 41.4% ground ball rate still wasn’t up to his usual standards.

For the Jays, it’s a fairly low-risk deal. The cost hasn’t yet been reported but is likely something barely above the league minimum and might even be a split deal of some kind. Tate still has an option remaining, so he can be kept in Triple-A as bullpen depth, at least for a little while. His service time count is at four years and 144 days. That puts him 28 days shy of the five-year mark, at which point he would have the right to refuse an optional assignment.

The Toronto bullpen may be taking a hit this spring, with Erik Swanson getting tested for some elbow discomfort. Assuming Swanson starts the season on the IL, the Jays project to have a bullpen core of Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, Chad Green and Nick Sandlin, leaving four spots potentially available. It’s possible that Yariel Rodríguez could end up in a relief role if Bowden Francis takes the final rotation spot. The Jays likely want a lefty in there, which could be Brendon Little, Josh Walker or Easton Lucas. Guys like Tommy Nance, Zach Pop and Ryan Burr are out of options, though Burr has been delayed by a shoulder injury.

Nick Robertson is also on the 40-man but has options. Adding Tate to the roster gives the Jays another optionable righty for the time being. His past prospect pedigree and strong big league results from 2019-22 give him a bit more intrigue than many optionable depth arms. If Tate can stick on the roster all year, he will be shy of six years of service, meaning the Jays could then retain him for 2026 via arbitration.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Sought $500MM Net Present Value In Extension Talks

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Last week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. told ESPN that his asking price in extension negotiations with the Blue Jays was south of $600MM. The star first baseman didn’t publicly identify his exact demand, though he noted he was looking for a 14-plus year deal.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic provides more specifics, reporting that Guerrero wanted a net present value of $500MM to bypass testing the open market. That could have taken the form of an even $500MM+ without deferrals or a deferred deal with a loftier overall guarantee that would still have pushed the NPV to half a billion dollars. A hypothetical 14-year extension worth $500MM would come with an approximate $35.7MM annual value and would run through Guerrero’s age-39 season (assuming it began this year).

The deferrals were evidently a sticking point. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post report that Toronto offered a deal that was in the $500MM range overall but included deferred money. According to that report, the NPV would have landed between $400MM and $450MM. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes that the NPV on the team’s offer was close to $450MM, suggesting they came in at the higher end of the range initially reported by The New York Post.

That would still have represented the third-largest guarantee in league history. Juan Soto easily holds the record at $765MM without deferrals. The Shohei Ohtani deal is respectively valued around $461MM and $438MM by the league and Players Association, respectively. Guerrero sought a number that would have placed him behind only Soto in net present value. His reported asking price was nowhere near Soto money, which so handily shattered prior precedent that it may be an outlier for a while. Still, it seemingly landed upwards of $50MM higher (in NPV terms) than the Jays were willing to go. Guerrero indicated he wasn’t interested in continuing negotiations beyond the opening of Spring Training. He has left the door open to reconsidering but said at the start of camp that he anticipates testing free agency.

The Jays have at least expressed a willingness to stretch the budget beyond Guerrero’s asking price for star players. They were seemingly willing to match the contract that Ohtani accepted from the Dodgers. Their precise offer to Soto isn’t clear but is believed to have been between $600MM and $700MM. That shows they’re not entirely averse to this kind of signing, yet it’s also a fact that the largest contract in franchise history remains the comparatively modest $150MM George Springer deal.

Toronto’s latest offer represents a significant jump from where they opened talks. Guerrero said over the offseason that the Jays’ offers before the Soto bidding were in the $340MM range. While the Soto price point didn’t make them willing to write a blank check for Guerrero, it seemingly contributed to them going $60MM+ above where they had been in terms of present value.

Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. At his best, he looks like one of the top five hitters in the game. He hasn’t quite maintained that level on an annual basis, though. He finished among the top six in MVP balloting in 2021 (finishing runner-up that year) and ’24. In the intervening two seasons, he hit .269/.341/.462 across nearly 1400 plate appearances. That’s still very good but not the kind of overwhelming numbers that’d force teams to essentially overlook questions about his defensive profile.

Assuming he gets to the market, Guerrero is likely to be the top free agent in the class. Kyle Tucker is arguably a better overall player, but the Cubs outfielder will hit free agency at age 29. Guerrero will get to the market at 27. The two-year age gap gives Guerrero the better chance to land a deal that stretches beyond a decade despite teams’ general reluctance to make extremely long commitments to first basemen.

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