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Mets Notes: Pederson, Alonso, Third Base, Rotation

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The Mets have already added one of the best left-handed hitters in the game this offseason, signing Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765MM deal. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests they were recently in on another big lefty bat: Joc Pederson. That was, of course, before Pederson agreed to a two-year, $37MM deal with the Rangers early on Monday morning.

Presumably, the Mets were interested in Pederson as a designated hitter. Coming off an excellent 2024 campaign, he would have made a strong replacement for J.D. Martinez. Like Pederson, Martinez became a free agent at the end of the season. If the Mets are still in the market for a DH after losing out on Pederson, their options are somewhat limited. Martinez might be the best true DH left in free agency. They could, of course, pursue an outfielder like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández, but those two are looking for significantly more money than Pederson, and, presumably, they would prefer to continue playing the outfield.

However, if it’s really just another big bat the Mets are looking for, the best solution could also be the most straightforward: re-signing first baseman Pete Alonso. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported on Sunday that the Mets are still “pushing hard” to re-sign their homegrown slugger. If that’s true, it’s difficult to imagine Alonso ending up anywhere else. Teams like the Yankees and Astros have already filled their holes at first base. And when the Mets set their sights on a target, they’re not easy to outbid.

Nightengale also notes that the Mets “like their internal options” at third base – in other words, he implies they aren’t likely suitors for star third baseman Alex Bregman. However, it’s not clear if that is at all contingent on the team re-signing Alonso. If Alonso is back in Queens next season, Mark Vientos is the obvious candidate to play third base. Vientos was one of the team’s best hitters in 2024, while also providing capable defense at the hot corner. Yet, if Alonso signs elsewhere, Vientos is likely to move across the diamond and take over at first. Simply put, there is a massive difference between Vientos and the next-best option at third base, which seems to be former top prospect and unproven big leaguer Brett Baty. The other internal options include Ronny Mauricio, who spent the entire 2024 season on the IL, and Luisangel Acuña, a second baseman/shortstop who has never played third base professionally. It’s hard to believe the Mets would feel confident going into the season without a more reliable player at third base.

It’s easier to accept the notion that the Mets are done adding to their rotation, which Will Sammon of The Athletic suggests is the case. After agreeing to a three-year, $75MM deal with Sean Manaea, the Mets have now signed three notable free agent starters: Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes. Those three will join Kodai Senga and David Peterson in the rotation, with Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill offering additional depth. Top prospect Brandon Sproat is another arm who could start for the Mets at some point in 2025.

With Senga and Manaea occupying the top two spots in the rotation, the Mets don’t have a bona fide ace like Zack Wheeler of the Phillies or Chris Sale of the Braves. However, their starting pitching depth looks like it’s going to be an asset. They would surely find room for Roki Sasaki if the NPB superstar chooses to sign in Queens, but otherwise, the Mets seem to have all the starters they can carry to begin the 2025 campaign.

Mariners Made Two-Year Offer To Carlos Santana

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The Guardians made a splash over the weekend by signing first baseman Carlos Santana to a one-year deal worth $12MM, bringing the long-time Cleveland staple back into the fold for the third time in his career. With that being said, however, it wasn’t the only contract offer Santana received during his free agency. According to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic this morning, the Mariners extended an offer to Santana that came with more guaranteed money than the one he landed in Cleveland. Rosenthal also cited the Yankees, Mets, Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Rangers, and Padres among clubs that had interest in the switch-hitter before he ultimately landed in Cleveland.

Regarding Seattle’s offer, Rosenthal specifies that not only did the deal come with more guaranteed money, but it actually involved a player option for the 2026 season, allowing Santana to either opt out and return to free agency or remain with the club. It’s somewhat surprising to hear that a club was willing to guarantee a second guaranteed year to Santana, who will celebrate his 39th birthday in early April. Rosenthal describes the Mariners as Santana’s “initial priority” until the Guardians realized that they could trade Josh Naylor to another Santana suitor, the Diamondbacks. At that point, the Guardians offered Santana (who had coincidentally just sold his Cleveland area home) the one-year deal he went on to sign.

The Mariners briefly acquired Santana from the Phillies during the 2018-19 offseason but flipped him to Cleveland shortly thereafter, before he ever suited up for the club. He eventually returned to the organization in 2022 after being traded there by the Royals, and this time his stay lasted 79 games. In 294 trips to the plate for Seattle, Santana hit .192/.293/.400. Despite that sub-Mendoza Line batting average, Santana’s performance was actually good for an above-average 103 wRC+ thanks to a strong 11.9% walk rate and the 15 home runs he clobbered down the stretch for the club.

That half-season stint evidently made enough of an impression with the Mariners that they were interested in a reunion as they searched for first base help this winter. Earlier this winter, the Mariners were reportedly pursuing a reunion with either Carlos Santana or Justin Turner at first base. Turner is still available, though it’s unclear whether that interest on Seattle’s end has persisted as the first base market has shifted in recent days. Of the six teams besides Cleveland that Rosenthal noted had interest in Santana’s services, three of them have found solutions in the days since: the Rangers replaced Nathaniel Lowe with Joc Pederson, the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt, and of course the Diamondbacks traded for Naylor and opened the door for Santana to re-sign in Cleveland.

For the Mariners, Mets, and Padres, there’s still a number of interesting first base options available. Turner has been a reliably above average hitter 11 consecutive seasons now but celebrated his 40th birthday last month, a reality that could give some teams pause about committing to him as a regular option if they can’t offer significant time at DH as well. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent available at first base, though barring a sudden change in plans by the Padres or Mariners it seems unlikely he would fit the budgets rumored to be in play for San Diego and Seattle. Anthony Rizzo, Mark Canha, Josh Bell, and Yuli Gurriel are among a number of veteran options at the position who could likely be had on a low-cost deal, and the trade market offers the possibility that the Giants could part ways with LaMonte Wade Jr. or perhaps even a deal with the Rays involving Yandy Diaz, who hasn’t been the subject of many trade rumors this winter but appeared to be available prior to this summer’s trade deadline.

Mets To Sign Sean Manaea

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9:49am: As noted by Will Sammon of The Athletic, the deal contains $23.25MM in deferred money that will be paid out over a 10-year period from 2035 to 2044.

1:01am: The Mets have agreed to a three-year, $75MM contract with left-hander Sean Manaea, according to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN. As noted by Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the deal is pending a physical.

Manaea, 33 in February, is now poised to sign with the Mets for the second consecutive offseason. In the first week of January earlier this year, the southpaw landed with New York on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $28MM and included an opt-out following the 2024 campaign. It was the second winter in a row that saw Manaea sign a two-year deal with an opt out after he signed with the Giants on a $25MM guarantee during the 2022-23 offseason.

That first contract in San Francisco was inked on the heels of a brutal 2022 season in San Diego that saw Manaea struggle to a 4.96 ERA (76 ERA+) with a 4.53 FIP in 158 innings of work. His time with the Giants went better than that; while his 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+) was still below average but he nonetheless entered the offseason boasting much stronger peripherals (3.91 FIP, 3.83 SIERA) and a solid run of starts down the stretch that September where he posted a 2.25 ERA and 3.21 FIP.

The Mets clearly believed that portended better days in Manaea’s future, and it certainly did. The lefty emerged as a quality mid-rotation option for New York in 2024 as he posted a 3.47 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 3.83 FIP in a career-high 181 2/3 innings of work across 32 starts. With a career year in the books ahead of his third consecutive trip to free agency, it seemed as though Manaea was looking for longer-term security. The Mets opted to tag the lefty with the Qualifying Offer at the outset of the winter, but it was hardly a surprise when Manaea rejected that one-year, $21.05MM offer and entered the open market anyway. After all, the lefty came into the winter ranked by MLBTR as the #10 free agent available on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and the #5 starter behind only Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty.

Early in the offseason, the fact that Manaea was encumbered by the QO led a number of clubs that likely would’ve had interest in a mid-rotation veteran like him to turn towards alternative options. The Angels, Dodgers, and Cubs turned in the early days of the offseason to unencumbered free agents like Yusei Kikuchi, Snell, and Matthew Boyd rather than delve into the markets of qualified free agents like Manaea, Nick Pivetta, or Luis Severino.

That’s not a consideration for the Mets, however, as reuniting with Manaea only costs the hypothetical draft pick they would’ve received had he signed elsewhere. That’s allowed Manaea to land a healthy guarantee despite a fairly small list of teams connected to him this winter: his three-year, $75MM deal exceeds the three-year, $60MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for him at the outset of the offseason but that’s hardly a surprise given that virtually every starting pitcher’s contract has exceeded expectations. Additionally, it’s of course possible that the deferred money in Manaea’s deal drops the net present value closer to MLBTR’s prediction.

For New York, a reunion with Manaea serves as a likely capstone on the club’s efforts to reconstruct its starting rotation after he, Severino, and Jose Quintana all hit the open market last month. The club added Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to their rotation mix earlier this winter, but that duo offers little stability given Montas’s struggles in 2025 and the fact that Holmes last started a game in the majors back in 2018. Manaea provides that much-needed stability while slotting towards the front of a rotation that also includes talented right-hander Kodai Senga and young southpaw David Peterson.

With depth options like Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, and Griffin Canning all in the wings to help cover for potential injuries, it would hardly be a surprise if Manaea’s return wrapped up the team’s rotation additions for the winter. That doesn’t mean the club is done entirely, however. Even with a hefty 2025 payroll that RosterResource estimates will land just shy of $280MM as things stand, that still leaves $56MM of room to work with before the Mets match their 2024 figure. That should leave plenty of room for the Mets to sign a corner infield bat to pair with Mark Vientos, whether that ends up being a reunion with Pete Alonso or an alternative option such as Alex Bregman and perhaps bolster other areas of the roster such as the bullpen or the bench.

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

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Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

Mariners, Nationals, Mets Interested In Paul Goldschmidt

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Veteran first baseman appears to be drawing a lot of interest as a free agent. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Nationals and Mets are all engaged with him. The connections to the Yankees and Giants have been previously covered at MLBTR, as well as interest from the Tigers.

Coming into the winter, the free agent market for first basemen had various intriguing options, but their respective ages gave them different levels of earning power. As part of MLBTR’s annual ranking of the Top 50 Free Agents, Pete Alonso was the top first baseman. Now 30 years old, he was predicted for a five-year, $125MM deal. Christian Walker, who is going into his age-34 season, had a prediction of three years and $60MM. Goldschmidt, now 37, was predicted for $15MM on a one-year deal. Veterans like Justin Turner and Carlos Santana didn’t crack the list but should be in line for one-year deals as well.

Earlier today, the Astros cut out the middle of that market. Walker has reportedly agreed to sign with Houston on exactly the three-year, $60MM deal that MLBTR predicted. For clubs that are still looking for help at first base, there’s now a clear divide between the big-ticket option in Alonso, as well as several other more affordable possibilities. Alonso also rejected a qualifying offer, so he’s also tied to the associated penalties with signing such a player, which depend upon whether a club paid the competitive balance tax this year or is a revenue sharing recipient.

Regardless of how clubs feel about Alonso, some of them will just not be likely candidates to make that kind of a splash in free agency. For those that are looking to make a modest investment at first, Goldschmidt is an intriguing candidate.

As recently as 2022, Goldschmidt was one of the best players at the position. He won National League Most Valuable Player that year, hitting 35 home runs, drawing walks at a 12.1% clip and stealing seven bases. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a wRC+ of 175 and produced 6.8 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

But the last two years have been far less impressive. He had a .268/.363/.447 batting line and 122 wRC+ in 2023. In the most recent season, that was down to .245/.302/.414 and a 100 wRC+, exactly league average production. His 7.2% walk rate was the worst of his career. His 26.5% strikeout rate was a personal high, apart from his rookie debut way back in 2011.

That’s downward slope is obviously somewhat discouraging, but Goldy has a strong track record and at least finished strong in 2024. After hitting .230/.291/.373 for an 87 wRC+ in the first half, he posted a .271/.319/.480 line and 120 wRC+ in the second half. The Cardinals aren’t bringing him back as they pivot to a reset year, which involves lowering the payroll. It also means more playing time for younger players like catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, which is pushing Willson Contreras to first base.

The Mariners are rarely huge spenders in free agency and are working with budgetary constraints this offseason, reportedly having about $15MM of wiggle room at the moment. It’s been rumored that they are considering Luis Castillo trade offers as a means of opening up some extra room, but they wouldn’t be a likely suitor even in that scenario. They are looking to add multiple infielders and a Castillo trade could perhaps leave them looking to make a rotation addition as well.

Goldschmidt fits well into their offseason plans as they are looking for a right-handed hitting veteran first baseman. They have been connected to Turner and Santana in rumors this offseason, as well as Walker before he agreed to his new deal with the Astros. Goldschmidt is another option they could consider, as he would require a lesser investment than Walker, though likely more than Turner or Santana.

MLBTR’s $15MM projection for Goldschmidt exactly matches what the M’s reportedly have to spend. That wouldn’t leave them any money to get the other infielder they want, likely a third baseman, though perhaps the trade market could help them out there.

The Nationals have been rebuilding for a while but could perhaps be ready to emerge back into contention. Their roster has started to fill up with exciting young talents but president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo said back in September that adding middle-of-the-order bats was a priority this winter.

That kind of addition wouldn’t have to come at first base but it would be the most logical place for it. They have lots of exciting young players for the outfield. CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. seem to be set in the middle infield. Prospect Brady House is a potential third baseman of the future.

But at first, the Nats gave most of their playing time to Joey Gallo, Joey Meneses and Juan Yepez this year. The club declined a mutual option on Gallo while Meneses was outrighted and has since signed a minor league deal with the Mets. Yepez is still on the roster but is likely viewed as more of a role player than an everyday guy. The Nats also don’t have a strict designater hitter and could theoretically have lots of at-bats to share between Yepez and Goldschmidt or some other external addition.

The Mets technically have a first base vacancy but it would be a surprise to see them put fill it with Goldschmidt. Alonso has been a mainstay there for years and many in the baseball world expect the Polar Bear to wind up back in Queens. If Alonso ends up elsewhere, it’s been expected that the Mets would move Mark Vientos over from third since his defense at the hot corner is not well regarded. That could allow them to pursue someone like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

It’s clear though that president of baseball operations David Stearns loves short-term deals. Last winter, he signed ten free agents, nine of them getting one-year deals. Sean Manaea got two years but with an opt-out, which he eventually triggered.

This winter, it was thought that he would ramp up the aggressiveness. The 15-year Juan Soto deal certainly qualifies but Stearns has paired that with a pile of far more modest moves. Despite having seemingly unlimited funds to work with, he has given one-year deals to Griffin Canning, Jared Young, Dylan Covey and Justin Hagenman, a two-year deal to Frankie Montas and a three-year deal with an opt-out to Clay Holmes.

Signing Goldschmidt to replace Alonso would likely mean Vientos staying at third base for another year, but that was tolerable in 2024 and he’s only 25 years old, so perhaps he will improve a little with more experience. Guys like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña could perhaps push their way into the infield mix over the course of the year, solidifying the infield group for 2026 and beyond.

Mets Meet With Roki Sasaki

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December 20: The Cubs are going to be meeting with Sasaki today, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score.

December 19: The Mets had a meeting with Roki Sasaki on Thursday, reports Andy Martino of SNY. They’re the second team that has been publicly revealed to meet with the NPB star. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) on Wednesday that Sasaki had scheduled an in-person meeting with the club. It’s not clear when that will take place.

Virtually every team would love to land Sasaki. It stands to reason that most, if not all, clubs have at least prepared a pitch they can make to the 23-year-old righty. Sasaki and his representatives at Wasserman presumably don’t intend to meet with every team over the next few weeks, though.

Agent Joel Wolfe spoke with media (including MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams) at the Winter Meetings. Wolfe indicated that Sasaki would speak with teams in person at a central location in the United States throughout this week. He’s slated to return to Japan for the holidays but could come back to the U.S. to view the cities of the finalists thereafter.

This is only the first run of presentations. Many people consider the Dodgers or (to a lesser extent) the Padres to be the favorites, though Wolfe vehemently denied last month that there was any kind of handshake agreement with Los Angeles already in place. Wolfe suggested at the Winter Meetings that Sasaki could benefit from landing in a city that doesn’t have a large media contingent, though he stressed that was solely his opinion and that he and Sasaki had yet to discuss that in great detail.

Sasaki’s posting window opened on December 9. He must sign with an MLB team by January 23 but cannot sign until after next year’s international amateur period opens on January 15. He could reach an unofficial verbal agreement before that point, however. Sasaki’s bonus will be hard capped by MLB’s amateur signing limitations.

Teams can acquire up to 60% of their bonus allotment via trade. Those trades cannot begin until the 15th. Sasaki’s maximum potential bonus would be $12.0888MM. He’ll likely sign for a fair bit less than that, since it’d require a team with the highest initial pool (one of Milwaukee, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Cincinnati, Detroit, or the Athletics) to trade for the maximum amount and commit their entire pool to Sasaki. The Yankees and Mets each have just under $6.2616MM in their starting pool. If they traded for 60% more space, they’d be able to offer just over $10MM.

Mets To Sign Anthony Gose, Luis Ortiz To Minor League Deals

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The Mets have minor league deals in place with left-hander Anthony Gose and right-hander Luis Ortiz, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Both pitchers also receive invites to major league spring training.

Gose, 34, spent many years as a position player in the majors but didn’t find much success and converted to the mound. In that role, he has intrigued with some high velocity and strikeout potential but has also shown control issues.

He tossed 27 2/3 innings for the Guardians over 2021 and 2022, allowing 3.90 earned runs per nine. He averaged 97.6 miles per hour on his fastball and struck out 31.9% of batters faced but also gave out free passes at a 13.8% clip. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2023 season. He returned to the mound in 2024 but only got into three big league games. He tossed 44 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 3.22 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 14.1% walk rate.

Gose is clearly a bit of a project, despite his age. He’s only really been pitching for a few years and the big surgery layoff put things on pause for a while. A 34-year-old with ongoing control problems might be considered a lost cause but Gose is perhaps a special case due to his unusual trajectory. If he can harness his stuff a bit better, there’s intriguing potential there. He has less than four years of service time and can be retained beyond 2025 if he has a roster spot at season’s end, though he is out of options.

Ortiz, 29, is not to be confused with the Luis Ortiz who was recently traded from the Pirates to the Guardians. This Ortiz has pitched for the Orioles and Giants before spending the past two years with the Phillies. He has tossed 34 innings over five different MLB seasons with a 4.76 ERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate and 48.6% ground ball rate.

He only made one big league appearance in 2024 and only five in the minors. He missed time due to ankle and shoulder injuries before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. He will therefore miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 campaign. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 155 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 4.58 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. If he eventually gets a roster spot, he still has one option season and less than two years of service time.

Mets Sign Griffin Canning

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The Mets finalized the signing of right-hander Griffin Canning to a one-year free agent deal. The Wasserman client is reportedly guaranteed $4.25MM and could make an additional $1MM via incentives. Canning would unlock $250K bonuses for reaching 22, 25, 28 and 31 starts. The Mets had four open roster spots, so no corresponding move was necessary.

This will technically be Canning’s third team of the offseason. The Angels dealt him to the Braves in a one-for-one swap for Jorge Soler within hours of the trade market reopening. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out at the time, Canning wasn’t a lock to stick in Atlanta for more than a few weeks. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $5.1MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. The Braves balked at that price and non-tendered him, affirming that the trade was about shedding the final two years of Soler’s contract.

That made Canning a free agent for the first time in his career. The 28-year-old heads to Queens and should compete for a rotation job. Canning has over five years of service time and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent. He’ll be on the MLB roster in some capacity, though it’s possible he’ll be pushed into long relief to open the year.

A second-round pick out of UCLA in 2017, Canning immediately became one of the Angels’ better pitching prospects. He profiled as a quick-moving college arm who had a chance to land in the middle of the rotation. Canning reached the big leagues within two years, but he’s had an up-and-down career. He posted a 4.58 earned run average over 90 1/3 innings as a rookie. His best season came during the shortened 2020 schedule, as he turned in a 3.99 ERA through 11 starts.

That remains Canning’s only sub-4.00 showing. Opponents tagged him for a 5.60 ERA across 14 MLB appearances in 2021, leading the Halos to option him to Triple-A. He landed on the injured list almost immediately with a stress reaction in his lower back. That carried into the following year and cost him the entire 2022 season.

At the time, it looked as if injuries could derail his career. The back was the most severe, but he’d also battled recurring elbow soreness early in his career. Canning has fortunately managed to stay mostly healthy over the last two seasons. He landed on the injured list twice in 2023, though both were minimal stints related to minor leg issues. Canning avoided the IL entirely this year. His effectiveness has waned, however.

Canning pitched to a 4.32 ERA across 127 innings two seasons ago. This year was a struggle, as he allowed 5.19 earned runs per nine over a career-high 171 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate plummeted to a personal-low 17.6%, more than eight points south of the previous year’s 25.9% clip. The walks ticked up a couple points while his swinging strike percentage dipped from 12.8% to a league average 11% rate.

The stuff also took a slight step backwards. Canning averaged 93.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season, a tick below the prior season’s 94.7 MPH mark. Opponents teed off on that pitch, connecting on 16 homers with a .529 slugging percentage. Canning features a fairly typical four-pitch mix (fastball, changeup, slider, curveball) and has intermittently looked like a fourth starter. The Mets will try to help him find that form more consistently.

Canning becomes the third potential starter whom the Mets have added via free agency. They went to the middle of the market for upside plays on Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes, the latter of whom will stretch into rotation work after six seasons as a full-time reliever. Canning doesn’t have the same ceiling — hence the far lower price tag — but aligns with New York’s seeming preference for stockpiling depth.

Montas, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Holmes should all be in the Opening Day rotation. Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn would vie for the fifth starter job as things stand. The Mets could prefer to run a six-man rotation. Senga was limited to one regular season start this year by injury. They’ll need to closely monitor Holmes’ workload so he doesn’t fatigue. Blackburn finished 2024 on the IL and underwent a postseason spinal surgery that could delay him in Spring Training.

The Mets could use at least another mid-rotation arm to solidify that group. They’ve stayed in contact with Sean Manaea since he declined their qualifying offer. Various reports have cast them as a long shot to land Corbin Burnes, but The Athletic tied them to Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta (each of whom remains unsigned) during the Winter Meetings. Adding another starter would allow the Mets to push at least one of Canning, Megill or Blackburn into a multi-inning relief role.

RosterResource calculates New York’s salary commitments and competitive balance tax number around $255MM. Owner Steve Cohen has been comfortable pushing their CBT number well beyond $300MM in previous years. There’s little reason for him to pull back now that they’ve landed Juan Soto. For now, they remain in the lowest tier of luxury tax penalization. They’re taxed at a 50% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM, so the tax hit on Canning is $2.125MM. That brings the investment to $6.375MM before incentives.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Mets were signing Canning to a $4.25MM deal with $1MM in bonuses. The Associated Press reported the incentive specifics.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Mets, Chris Williams Agree To Minor League Deal

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3:35pm: Manny Gómez of NJ Advanced Media reports that there’s no deal in place with Reyes, which MLBTR has confirmed.

3:20pm: The Mets have agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Alex Reyes, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The righty also receives an invite to major league spring training. The Mets also signed catcher Chris Williams to a minor league pact, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Reyes, 30, is a major unknown at this point in his career. He was once one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and has done some impressive work in the big leagues, but injuries have been a significant impediment and he hasn’t pitched in any official game action since 2021.

Coming up as a prospect with the Cardinals, Reyes was ranked on Baseball America’s top 100 list in five straight years from 2015 to 2019. He got into the top ten in 2016 and made his major league debut, tossing 46 innings with a 1.57 earned run average. His 12.2% walk rate was on the high side but he also punched out 27.5% of batters faced. Tommy John surgery in February of 2017 wiped out that season. His 2018 return was limited by a lat strain and he struggled in 2019 after that long layoff.

He was back on track to a degree in 2020 and 2021. He worked primarily as a reliever for those two years, tossing 92 innings for the Cards with a 3.23 ERA. His 16.4% walk rate was terrifying but he struck out 30.3% of batters faced and moved into the closer’s role, saving 29 games for St. Louis in 2021.

But as mentioned, that was the last time Reyes has been on the mound. His right shoulder gave him problems early in 2022 and he required surgery in May of that year. He was non-tendered and signed with the Dodgers going into 2023 but then he required another shoulder surgery in June of that year. The Dodgers turned down a club option for 2024 and Reyes didn’t sign elsewhere.

It’s anyone’s guess what Reyes can do after three seasons lost due to shoulder surgeries but there’s no real risk for the Mets on a minor league deal. If he can get back in form, he’ll be found money. The Mets have the payroll to do anything they want, as shown by their record-shattering deal for Juan Soto, but they seem to prefer lower-cost upside plays for the pitching staff. Last offseason, they gave short-term deals to guys like Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman and others.

This winter, they’ve again given relatively short deals to Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas as well as minor league deals for guys like Génesis Cabrera, Chris Devenski and others, with Reyes now added to the list.

Williams, 28, was an eighth-round pick of the Twins and has spent his entire career with that club until now. Based on his minor league numbers, he seems to have a three-true-outcomes approach at the plate. He has 1,919 minor league plate appearances thus far, getting struck out in 29.2% of those but also drawing walks at a 14.5% clip and hitting 95 home runs. His overall batting line of .227/.344/.464 leads to a 110 wRC+. He has played catcher and first base a lot with brief stints at third base and the outfield corners as well, so he can give the Mets some depth at various spots.

Mets, Brandon Waddell Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mets are in agreement with left-hander Brandon Waddell on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. While it was initially reported as an MLB deal, Murray subsequently issued a correction. The deal is pending a physical.

Waddell is the second former member of the Korea Baseball Organization’s Doosan Bears to agree to terms with the Mets today. New York added multi-positional bat Jared Young on an MLB split deal after he clubbed 10 homers in 38 games for the Bears late in the season. Waddell, a 30-year-old southpaw, spent parts of three years with the club between 2022-24.

That was a generally successful run. Waddell turned in 244 2/3 innings of 2.98 ERA ball in the KBO. That included a 3.12 mark in 75 frames this year. The UVA product fanned 23.8% of opposing hitters against a 3.5% walk rate. His season was unfortunately cut short by a rotator cuff injury in late June.

The Mets were evidently intrigued enough by Waddell’s form to give him a look as non-roster rotation or long relief depth. This will be his first stint in affiliated ball since 2022, which he spent in Triple-A in the St. Louis system. Waddell last pitched in the big leagues in 2021. He divided that season between four teams — the Twins, Pirates, Orioles and Cardinals — and allowed eight runs across 9 1/3 innings. He has 11 career MLB appearances and owns a 5.37 ERA over parts of four years at the Triple-A level.

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