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Cubs Claim Aaron Civale

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The Cubs have claimed right-hander Aaron Civale off waivers from the White Sox, according to a team announcement. Left-hander Tom Cosgrove was designated for assignment to make room for Civale on the 40-man roster. In addition the White Sox announced that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Bryse Wilson to replace Civale on the club’s active and 40-man rosters.

Civale, 30, made his big league debut with Cleveland back in 2019 and posted a 3.77 ERA across 76 starts with the organization, but is now on his fifth team in the past three years as he’s changed hands between Cleveland, Tampa, Milwaukee, and now both Chicago teams. His numbers haven’t been nearly as good since he left the Guardians; since he was traded to Tampa, he’s pitched to a lackluster 4.78 ERA in 59 appearances with a 4.53 FIP and a 22.1% strikeout rate against a 7.5% walk rate. The numbers have been even less impressive this year, as he’s posted a 5.26 ERA with a 4.60 FIP in 16 starts between the Brewers and White Sox this year.

All of that might make it seem somewhat surprising that a Cubs team with designs on making it back to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game season since 2018 would have interest in his services. Despite Civale’s middling results, however, he’s still an appealing addition for Chicago thanks to the fact that he can log reliable innings for the club and help keep their top pitchers fresh ahead of the postseason. 2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd has already logged 153 1/3 innings this year despite having last thrown even 80 innings in a single season all the way back in 2019. Meanwhile, rookie Cade Horton has racked up 127 1/3 frames between Triple-A and the majors despite having never even thrown 90 innings in a season before.

Those heavy workloads could come with consequences by the time October rolls around, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Cubs are already keeping a close eye on Boyd’s workload after he posted a 4.10 ERA in his last seven starts. Horton, meanwhile, has been among the very best pitchers in baseball since the All Star break with a 0.86 ERA in eight starts, but even he has thrown more than 74 pitches in just one of his six starts during the month of August. With Horton and Boyd likely to join Shota Imanaga at the front of Chicago’s rotation for the playoffs, it would make sense for the Cubs to try and ease off the gas for those players while leaning on their depth for the stretch run.

The problem with that plan is that Chicago’s depth has been taxed heavily by injuries. Front-of-the-rotation lefty Justin Steele has been out almost the entire year due to UCL surgery, and since then the Cubs have also lost both Jameson Taillon and deadline addition Mike Soroka to the injured list. Javier Assad has looked quite good since returning from his own stint on the injured list, but other arms will need to join him in helping lift up the front of the rotation if the Cubs are going to be able to rest Boyd and Horton this September.

That’s where Civale comes in, as he can join with other back-end starters and swingmen the Cubs have at their disposal like Assad, Ben Brown, and Colin Rea to help take the load off of Chicago’s projected playoff starters. At the very least, he should be able to serve as a capable bridge to players like Soroka and Taillon, who may be activated off the injured list before the end of the regular season. It’s also possible the Cubs will be able to get something more than innings out of Civale, given his past success and the solid enough 4.28 FIP he posted during his time with the White Sox.

In exchange for Civale’s services, the Cubs will pay the remainder of the right-hander’s $8MM salary for the 2025 campaign. That should free up some money for the White Sox as they look ahead towards the 2025-26 offseason and hope for better days next year. It will also provide opportunities for other arms to step into the rotation and show what they can do ahead of the offseason. Perhaps that will include Wilson, who was outrighted off the White Sox roster back in June after surrendering a 6.95 ERA in 45 1/3 appearances. Now that he’s back on the roster, perhaps Wilson will be able to finish the season strong at the big league level as he heads towards what will likely be free agency in the offseason, unless he pitches so well that the White Sox are convinced to tender him a contract for 2026.

As for Cosgrove, the lefty has a 2.25 ERA across four appearances with the Cubs this year after spending most of the season at Triple-A. He’s logged 70 big league innings in total over the past three years, the majority of which came as a member of the Padres, and in that time he’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA with a 4.07 FIP. The Cubs will have one week to try and pass Cosgrove through waivers, at which point they’ll have the opportunity to assign him outright to the minors if he goes unclaimed.

Cubs To Sign Carlos Santana

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Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana is signing with the Cubs, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The terms of the deal are not currently known. Chicago’s 40-man roster is full, and the Cubs will need to make a corresponding move in order to add Santana to the roster.

The 39-year-old veteran was released by the Guardians last week in what president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti described to reporters (including MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins) as a “joint decision” to allow Santana to pursue a shot at the postseason with another club while affording more playing time to younger first base options in Cleveland like Kyle Manzardo and rookie C.J. Kayfus. That opportunity to play in the postseason will now come via Chicago, where the Cubs currently occupy the first of three NL Wild Card spots with a 78-58 record and have a 99.9% chance of making the postseason according to Fangraphs.

Santana is something of a curious fit for a Cubs team that already has both Michael Busch and Justin Turner on the roster as players limited to first base and DH. The veteran switch-hitter has struggled at the plate in 116 games this year, with a slash line of just .225/.316/.333 (86 wRC+) across 455 plate appearances. While he’s still taking walks at a strong 11.3% clip, Santana’s power has mostly disappeared and his 18.9% strikeout rate this year is the highest it’s been since his first full season as a big league player all the way back in 2011.

One potential use case for Santana on the roster would be to replace Turner, who has posted a lackluster wRC+ of just 70 with Chicago this year. With that being said, Turner’s primary role (and, likely, Santana’s primary role in replacing him) would be serving as a platoon partner for Busch, mostly playing against left-handed pitching. In that specific role, Turner is actually arguably a better fit than Santana given that he has an above-average 109 wRC+ against lefties this year as compared to Santana’s pedestrian 93 wRC+ against southpaws this season.

On the other hand, the switch-hitting Santana fares much better against right-handed pitching than Turner, and is also regarded as a much stronger defender. Santana is also just one season removed from a brilliant year in Minnesota where he posted a 113 wRC+ overall with a 161 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and won the AL’s Gold Glove award at first base. If the Cubs think they can help Santana get back into the form he showed with the Twins last year, it’s easy to see why they’d want to bring him into the fold.

Santana’s addition to the roster doesn’t necessarily have to come at the expense of Turner’s roster spot, of course. While carrying three players limited to first base defensively is unusual, rosters are set to expand to 28 players tomorrow. During Miguel Amaya’s brief return from the injured list earlier this month, the Cubs were comfortable utilizing both Amaya and Reese McGuire as backups to Carson Kelly behind the plate, which with Turner in the fold at first base left only one spot for a utility player. Perhaps that willingness to use defensively-limited players on the bench is thanks to the extreme versatility of utility man Willi Castro, who is capable of backing up every position on the diamond aside from first base and catcher.

The aforementioned roster expansion set to occur tomorrow often allows teams to get more creative with in-game substitutions, as well, and that’s another way Santana could offer value to Chicago. Turner has been atrocious against right-handed pitching this year with a wRC+ of 18, so while he’s been an excellent choice to spell Busch in a high-leverage at-bat against a southpaw this year, his subsequent at-bats against righties and poor glove at first base have been a hindrance to the Cubs following that pinch-hit appearance. With Santana on the roster, Turner could still pinch-hit for Busch before ceding the first base job to Santana, who has been closer to split neutral this year and carries a strong glove.

It’s also worth noting that the Cubs’ current options at first base and DH have been struggling somewhat in the second half. While Busch (136 wRC+) and Seiya Suzuki (122 wRC+) are putting together strong seasons overall, their .209/.270/.403 (87 wRC+) and .202/.340/.279 (86 wRC+) lines since the All-Star break leave much to be desired. Chicago will surely need its middle of the order to straighten things out ahead of the playoffs, and perhaps adding a steady veteran like Santana could afford those players occasional days off down the stretch to allow them that opportunity.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the club could’ve also offered a young player the opportunity to spell those veterans given their large crop of position player prospects on the cusp of the minors. Owen Caissie is already on the roster, while Moises Ballesteros and Kevin Alcantara have both already made their MLB debuts previously. None of those players play first base like Santana does, but Jonathon Long has turned heads this year with a .308/.405/.498 slash line in 123 Triple-A games this year and could easily be called upon to spell Busch and Turner at first base if the club so desired. Perhaps the Cubs feel the intense environment of a playoff race in September isn’t the best way to introduce these young players to the majors, however, and even a struggling veteran like Santana is a safer bet to round out the roster.

Spencer Turnbull Opts Out Of Cubs Deal

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Spencer Turnbull was released from his minor league contract with the Cubs, as first reflected on the MiLB.com transaction log. Tommy Birch of The Des Moines Register reports that the righty triggered an opt-out clause.

Turnbull sets out for a new opportunity a few days before the postseason roster cutoff. He’ll need to sign with a new team, at least on a minor league contract, by September 1 in order to be eligible for the playoffs. Turnbull will be a free agent again at the beginning of the offseason. He’ll presumably look to catch on with a contender seeking pitching depth.

Chicago signed Turnbull shortly after the All-Star Break. He took the ball six times with Triple-A Iowa but was tattooed for 26 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. He gave up at least five runs in each of his last three times out, including an eight-run appearance in 2 1/3 innings against the A’s affiliate on Wednesday. That obviously wasn’t going to get him on the radar for an MLB call, even for a Cubs team that placed Jameson Taillon back on the injured list yesterday.

Turnbull is making a prorated $1.265MM salary from the Blue Jays. He didn’t sign until early May after not finding a deal to his liking all winter. Toronto only gave him three big league appearances before cutting him loose. His terrible month in Iowa certainly hasn’t raised his stock. Still, Turnbull is only a year removed from pitching to a 2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings for the Phillies. He shouldn’t have an issue finding another minor league job — either to finish this season or going into next spring.

Poll: NL Rookie Of The Year Check-In

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Within the last few years, the Rookie of the Year award has grown to have more meaning than it had in the past. Changes in the most recent collective bargaining agreement allow the award to bestow a full year of MLB service time on the top two finishers, even if they would have otherwise entered the offseason with less than that. Beyond that, any player who was a top-100 prospect on a pair of prominent preseason lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN) can net his club an extra pick by winning the award if he breaks camp with his club or was called up less than two weeks into the season. That’s raised the stakes on the two Rookie of the Year races, but who will ultimately come out on top?

Here’s a look at this year’s candidates in the National League, listen in alphabetical order by last name:

Drake Baldwin, C, Braves

The 24-year-old Baldwin is having a banner rookie season for Atlanta after an injury suffered by Sean Murphy during Spring Training opened up the Opening Day catcher job. Baldwin took the reins and never looked back. Through 96 games, he’s hitting .276/.347/.454 with a wRC+ of 126. He’s smacked 14 homers in 337 plate appearances, but more impressive is Baldwin’s plate discipline. The youngster is striking out just 16% of the time while walking at a solid 8.9% clip. That production has been enough to get the lion’s share of time behind the plate in spite of Murphy’s status as a former All-Star and Gold Glove award winner on a hefty contract. If there’s an issue with Baldwin’s profile, it’s that he’s a merely pedestrian defender behind the plate. Scouts expected him to be no more than average behind the plate, and so far the metrics have played that out as he has -1 Catching Runs this year according to Statcast. Baldwin and Murphy are now splitting the workload between catcher and DH, so Baldwin should see regular at-bats down the stretch. If he wins the award, he’ll net the Braves a PPI pick.

Isaac Collins, OF, Brewers

Collins celebrated his 28th birthday last month, making him by far the oldest player on this list. He’s been a game changer for an excellent Brewers club in left field, however, with a .270/.368/.421 (125 wRC+) slash line in 109 games. Collins has chipped in 28 extra-base hits and 15 steals and drawn walks at an excellent 12.3% clip. That penchant for drawing walks fuels an on-base percentage that sits just barely outside the top 20 among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year. Collins’ age and lack of a premium defensive position could hold him back in the eyes of some voters, but the switch-hitter does have one big thing going for him: he’s doing his best work now. Since the All-Star break, Collins has hit .288/.377/.475 with a wRC+ of 139.

Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs

The Cubs’ first rounder in the 2022 draft, Horton came up to fill out the rotation in a pinch back in May and has generally looked the part of a quality big league starter. He’s pitched to a 2.88 ERA and 3.71 FIP in 93 2/3 innings of work. That’s by far the best ERA among all rookie pitchers with at least 80 innings, and he’s been on the shortlist for the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break with a microscopic 0.49 ERA, a 2.61 FIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate. Horton’s season-long strikeout rate of just 20.1% isn’t all that impressive, and his relatively limited innings may hurt him with some voters. Even so, the 24-year-old should get plenty of attention with the way he’s pitched in the second half so far, and a big final month could further cement his case. Horton was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the season but wasn’t called up early enough to net the Cubs a pick based on this year’s Rookie of the Year voting (though he could still garner them a pick with a top-3 Cy Young finish before reaching arbitration).

Chad Patrick, RHP, Brewers

Patrick might be overlooked by some voters who could be attracted to the strong second half numbers of Collins and Horton. Even so, he’s a legitimate contender for the award. Patrick’s 105 innings across 21 appearances (20 starts) lead NL rookies. He’s posted a 3.60 ERA with a nearly identical 3.68 FIP while striking out 23.9% of his opponents. Perhaps the biggest flaw in Patrick’s case is that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A for just over a month. He didn’t pitch in the majors between July 5 and Aug. 19. He’s also worn down as the season has gone on, with a 5.09 ERA and 4.45 FIP in his last seven starts. Patrick will need to turn things around in September if he’s going to make a play for the award, but a strong start to his big league career in April and May could be enough to keep him in the conversation.

Other Options

That aforementioned quartet appear to be the likeliest candidates for the award, but they aren’t the only names to consider. Playing time will be a factor for Miami’s Jakob Marsee, but if the 24-year-old can keep hitting the way he has in 26 games since his Aug. 1 recall (.356/.422/.667, 195 wRC+), his otherworldly performance will get some attention anyway. Teammate Agustin Ramirez leads NL rookies in home runs (18) and plate appearances (463), but he’s posted awful defensive marks behind the plate and is sitting on a .287 on-base percentage (.228/.287/.424 overall). Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski was the talk of the game after his first few starts, but he spent two weeks on the injured list after being clipped by a comebacker and has been tagged for 13 earned runs in his past 14 1/3 innings (four starts). He’s only at 43 2/3 innings on the season, too, which hurts his candidacy.

Hyeseong Kim has been an above-average hitter for the Dodgers and contributed defensive versatility, but he’s been on the injured list for a month and is unlikely to get enough playing time to merit consideration. Nationals righty Brad Lord is in the midst of a solid season as a swingman, but a 5.47 ERA in August does him no favors. Third basemen Caleb Durbin and Matt Shaw have both had decent enough years but are sure to be overshadowed by their teammates when it comes to balloting.

Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately come out on top in the NL’s Rookie of the Year balloting? Have your say in the poll below:

Cubs To Place Jameson Taillon On Injured List

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The Cubs are placing Jameson Taillon back on the 15-day injured list, manager Craig Counsell tells reporters (including Maddie Lee of The Chicago Sun-Times). Taillon departed his most recent start with left groin tightness. Javier Assad will be recalled from Triple-A Iowa to take his spot on the active roster.

Taillon just returned from a nearly two-month absence due to a right calf strain. This isn’t expected to be anywhere near as serious. Counsell said the Cubs believe it’ll be close to a minimal stint. They can backdate the placement to August 25, meaning he’ll be eligible to return on September 9. He’ll miss at least two turns through the rotation but should be back in plenty of time to vie for a spot on Chicago’s postseason roster.

The veteran righty has made 19 starts. Taillon carries a 4.15 ERA with a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate. He’s throwing plenty of strikes but has allowed home runs at a career-worst clip. This is is the fourth straight season in which Taillon has struggled to miss bats, and his velocity has trended down over the course of his four-year free agent deal.

Taillon looks like a fifth starter at this stage of his career. The Cubs will head into October with questions about their pitching depth. Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd project as their top three arms for the playoff rotation as long as the Cubs don’t collapse in September. Assuming Michael Soroka will be limited to relief work if he’s able to make it back from a shoulder strain, Taillon and Colin Rea are the top options for a potential Game 4 postseason start.

Assad has lost most of the season to an oblique strain. He’s made three MLB starts since returning, allowing six runs across 14 innings. The Cubs have optioned him twice but recalled him shortly after on both occasions. Pitchers typically must spend 15 days on an optional assignment, but an exception is made if they’re replacing someone who goes on the injured list.

The Cubs have Horton and Imanaga to start the next two games. Assad will take the ball on Saturday at Coors Field. He’ll step into Taillon’s rotation spot for the time being. He’s a long shot to get much consideration for Chicago’s playoff roster — either in the rotation or long relief — but he should get at least two starts to try to make his case.

Cubs’ Brandon Birdsell To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Cubs prospect Brandon Birdsell, one of the top young arms in the system, will undergo surgery on his right elbow this week, assistant general manager Jared Banner announced yesterday (link via Janie McCauley of the Associated Press). Banner didn’t provide specifics regarding the injury, noting only that the procedure will be performed by Dr. Keith Meister — one of the industry’s most prominent orthopedic surgeons — and that more information will be known following the procedure.

Banner made no mention of Birdsell’s ulnar collateral ligament, though that’s obviously the fear in situations like this. It’s relatively common with UCL injuries for medical experts to determine that the ligament needs repair but hold off on making the call between an internal brace and full replacement (i.e. Tommy John surgery) until the operation is underway and the surgeon can get a first-hand look at the extent of the damage. The obvious hope, of course, is that Birdsell is dealing with a less severe injury, but the team won’t divulge that information until after the operation is performed.

Regardless of the nature of the surgery, it’s a setback in the development of Birdsell, a former Texas Tech standout whom the Cubs selected with their fifth-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 6’2″, 240-pound righty put himself on the prospect map with a 2.77 ERA in 107 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A in his first professional season in 2023, and he followed up with 135 2/3 frames of 3.91 ERA ball split between Double-A and Triple-A last year. Along the way, he made notable improvements in both his strikeout and walk rates, finishing out the ’24 campaign at 23.5% and 5.4%, respectively. That 2024 season propelled him up the organization’s prospect rankings, landing him eighth at FanGraphs, ninth at MLB.com and 12th at Baseball America.

Birdsell opened the 2025 season on the injured list with an elbow issue but returned to the mound in mid-June and looked effective for much of the summer. The Cubs eased him back into things with two- and four-inning starts in the low minors before stretching him back out in Triple-A. Birdsell posted a 2.48 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in his first seven appearances before being rocked for six runs (three earned) across 4 2/3 innings on Aug. 7 in what will now go down as his final start of the 2025 season.

There’s little left to prove for Birdsell in the minors. He entered the year widely regarded as a nearly MLB-ready back-of-the-rotation arm with a reputation for filling up the strike zone. He’ll be Rule 5-eligible this offseason, presenting the Cubs with an interesting decision if his surgery will knock him out for most or all of the 2026 campaign.

Kyle Tucker Was Diagnosed With Hairline Hand Fracture In June

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Cubs star Kyle Tucker suffered a hairline fracture in his right hand back in June, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Tucker jammed his right hand diving into second base on a stolen base attempt in a game against the Reds on June 1. Manager Craig Counsell subsequently confirmed the June fracture but says Tucker is now healthy (via Rogers).

Initial x-rays came back negative. However, Rogers writes that follow-up testing revealed a small fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky. The Cubs did not announce the diagnosis at the time, and Tucker has not spent any time on the injured list. The four-time All-Star preferred to play through the injury.

In retrospect, it’s fair to question whether that was prudent. Tucker had been one of the best hitters in MLB for the season’s first two months. He owned a .284/.395/.524 slash with 12 homers across 269 plate appearances through June 1. Since then, he’s batting .236/.352/.368 in almost the exact same amount of playing time. Tucker has connected on six longballs over the past two and a half months.

While the injury certainly seems to be having an impact, it’s worth noting that Tucker actually continued to play well in the immediate aftermath. He hit .311 with five homers in June. It wasn’t until July that things went completely off the rails. He’s batting .189/.325/.235 with one homer in his past 38 games.

Tucker’s plate discipline remains strong — he has actually walked more often than he has struck out during that stretch — but his power has completely evaporated. His rate of hard contact (batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 MPH) was between 44-50% in each of the first two months. It remained solid at 42.9% in June but has plummeted below 30% in each of the past two months.

That kind of play from a hitter of Tucker’s caliber has naturally led to speculation about his health. Pat Murphy, manager of the Milwaukee team that is playing the Cubs this week, opined that the outfielder was playing through an injury. “I think Tucker’s hurt. I don’t have any information, but Tucker’s not the same,” Murphy said on 670 The Score.

Tucker himself has maintained that he’s physically ok. However, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer conceded to Rogers “that when you look at his numbers, it’s had an impact on him, for sure. That’s the nature sometimes of these small injuries. They can do that.” Counsell has kept Tucker out of the lineup for the past three games — two days, including a doubleheader on Tuesday. Chicago won all three games over the MLB-best Brewers with Owen Caissie playing right field. Counsell hasn’t committed to Tucker’s status for tomorrow’s series finale.

The Cubs remain six games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central. They’re comfortably in Wild Card position, which gives them the flexibility to mix in more off days for Tucker if necessary. They’ll need to find a way to get him back to being productive if they hope to make a deep playoff run. The injury and slump obviously come at an inopportune time for Tucker personally, as he’s a couple months from free agency. He’s the clear #1 player in the class and generally expected to command $400MM+ as he enters his age-29 season.

Poll: How Will Kyle Tucker Finish 2025?

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Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a massive extension with the Blue Jays back in April, Kyle Tucker has been viewed as the consensus top player in this winter’s free agent class. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s a four-time All-Star, a former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award winner, and the fifth-place finisher in AL MVP voting in 2023. That resume is what convinced the Cubs to trade All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith, and young starter Hayden Wesneski to the Astros last winter in order to acquire Tucker in his final year of club control.

It’s a decision that paid off in a big way during the first half of the season. Through the end of June, Tucker slashed an phenomenal .291/.395/.537 across 83 games. Among qualified hitters, only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, and Will Smith had a higher wRC+ than Tucker’s 158 during that stretch. While it wasn’t quite on par with the otherworldly 179 wRC+ Tucker posted in 78 games with the Astros last year, it was still an undeniably dominant showing that led to many wondering if he would join Guerrero and Juan Soto in clearing the $500MM benchmark upon hitting free agency this winter.

Once the calendar flipped to July, however, things changed for Tucker in a hurry. In 163 plate appearances since the start of July, Tucker has hit just .189/.325/.235 with a wRC+ of just 72. He’s tallied just four extra-base hits in that time and has gone a full month without hitting a home run at this point after launching his last long ball on July 19. Tucker’s slump has been lengthy enough and severe enough that club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) yesterday that he plans to give Tucker “some days off” in hopes of helping him reset and get back on track.

That the Cubs are sitting a player who looked like a legitimate MVP candidate just over a month ago is inherently shocking, but it’s hard not to see why given his recent performance. It’s fair to wonder how Tucker’s deep struggles of late may have impacted his market in free agency, as well. After all, a major calling card for Tucker has been his consistency and reliability as a middle-of-the-order force. An extended slump such as this one puts a hole in that narrative, especially when combined with him missing half of last season due to injury.

When looking at other outfielders who signed mega deals in free agency, Tucker’s resume doesn’t quite measure up. He no longer seems likely to wind up with an absurd platform season like Judge (nine years, $360MM) put together in 2022, and he’s three years older than Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM) was when he reached free agency. The inflation top-level MLB contracts have seen in recent years should help Tucker, especially as compared to Harper’s contract from all the way back in the 2018-19 offseason, but if his season doesn’t turn around going forward he may not even crack the $400MM threshold in free agency, much less $500MM.

So, will Tucker be able to turn things around? There’s certainly some reasons for optimism. Most notably, his discipline at the plate has remained elite even during his slump. Since July 1, Tucker has actually walked (16.0%) more often than he’s struck out (15.3%). His .224 BABIP during that period suggests some positive regression could be on the way in terms of batted ball luck, but even underlying metrics like hard-hit rate (27.9%) and barrel rate (2.7%) suggest he’s earned his lack of power production. There’s been speculation in some circles that a finger injury suffered when sliding into second base could be the cause of his power outage, but that’s a somewhat dubious claim between Tucker himself suggesting his finger has not caused him problems at the plate and the fact that he had a 14.7% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate in 24 June games following his return from the injury.

It would be a shock if Tucker truly batted below the Mendoza line with virtually no power the rest of the way this year. He’s been a bottom 20 player in baseball since July 1 in terms of wRC+, and it’s practically unheard of for a player of his caliber to perform that poorly for that long when not dealing with some sort of physical issue or age-related decline. With that said, it’s worth noting that Tucker’s recent slump has actually put his 2025 numbers more or less in line with his career norms. Tucker is hitting .261/.374/.447 with a 131 wRC+ overall this year. Through the end of the 2023 season, Tucker was a career .272/.345/.507 (132 wRC+) hitter.

Those slash lines are awfully similar, and it stands to reason that it’s at least possible Tucker’s incredible 78-game 2024 campaign was simply an outlier. On the other hand, it must also be noted that Tucker put together 709 plate appearances between the start of the 2024 season and the end of June 2025 where he hit a combined .290/.401/.559 with a wRC+ of 168. Only Judge (218), Ohtani (179), and Soto (171) posted better numbers during that time frame. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Tucker is able to recapture some of that production over the season’s final six weeks and ends up with a strong platform year, even if it doesn’t quite reach the heights that looked possible two months ago.

What do MLBTR readers think is in store for Tucker over the final weeks of the 2025 campaign? Will he be able to turn things around and quell any doubts created by his recent struggles? Will his slump continue and push his season numbers lower than they are now? Or will his numbers settle in as he levels off somewhere close to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:

Cubs To Promote Owen Caissie For MLB Debut

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The Cubs are planning to promote top prospect Owen Caissie, as reported by Kiley McDaniel and Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The young outfielder is already on the 40-man, and he will presumably take Miguel Amaya’s spot on the active roster. Amaya sprained his ankle tonight and will require an IL stint. As for Caissie, the Ontario native is expected to make his MLB debut tomorrow against the Blue Jays.

The Padres selected Caissie in the second round of the 2020 draft, and they flipped him to the Cubs that winter as part of the trade package that brought Yu Darvish to San Diego. He has since worked his way up Chicago’s minor league system, turning into one of the team’s most promising prospects. Baseball America ranked him 21st in the organization in 2021, eighth in 2022, 13th in 2023, fifth in 2024, and second in 2025. He has also ranked among BA’s overall top 100 prospects in each of the past three years. Not every source was quite as high on Caissie entering the 2025 campaign; FanGraphs dropped him off their top 100 list after ranking him 65th in 2024, while The Athletic’s Keith Law has never included Caissie among his top 100 prospects. Yet, none ever doubted Caissie’s huge raw power – the question was whether he could translate that power into success at the highest level.

That question loomed larger than ever after Caissie slashed .278/.375/.472 with a .195 isolated power and a 115 wRC+ in his season at Triple-A in 2024. Those are solid but hardly earth-shattering numbers, especially not for a bat-first corner outfielder. However, the lefty slugger has taken a massive step forward this year, with 22 home runs and 50 extra-base hits in 92 games for the Iowa Cubs. His .281 ISO and 145 wRC+ both rank fifth among qualified hitters in the International League. His strikeout rate is still high – that has always and probably will always be an issue – but a 28.0% K-rate certainly isn’t fatal, at least not if he keeps drawing his walks and crushing home runs.

None of this is to say that Caissie is a sure-thing, middle-of-the-order jolt for the Cubs’ lineup. He’s still just a 23-year-old prospect who has to prove his swing-and-miss issues won’t sink him against MLB pitching and, in particular, left-handed MLB pitching. Still, it’s exciting that he’s joining the team for the stretch run as they look to hold on to the NL’s top Wild Card spot and try to challenge the seemingly unstoppable Brewers for the NL Central crown. Any offensive boost he can provide will be much appreciated. The Cubs rank among the league’s best offensive teams on the season, but they’ve struggled as of late, scoring just 34 runs in 11 games since the trade deadline.

With that said, it’s worth wondering where Caissie would fit into Chicago’s lineup. He can play the corner outfield or DH, and the Cubs are set at those positions with Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki. Tucker bats lefty like Caissie, while Happ is a switch-hitter with stronger splits against righty pitching. Suzuki bats right-handed, but he doesn’t have any trouble facing same-handed pitching. Ultimately, as the cliché goes, this is the best kind of problem for manager Craig Counsell to have. He can take advantage of Caissie’s presence on the roster to give his veterans a bit more rest, particularly the slumping Tucker. As long as Caissie hits, it will work out quite nicely. On the other hand, this means there’s quite a bit of pressure on the youngster to perform right away. The Cubs are as competitive as they’ve been in several years, and they can’t afford to take away reps from Tucker, Suzuki, and Happ if Caissie isn’t producing.

The roster fit isn’t perfect, but the Cubs only had four healthy minor leaguers on the 40-man roster to choose from, and it’s hard to argue that Caissie didn’t earn this opportunity over fellow top prospects Kevin Alcántara and Moisés Ballesteros, or the less-heralded Ben Cowles.

Image in post courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports.

Cubs To Place Miguel Amaya On Injured List With Sprained Ankle

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Cubs catcher Miguel Amaya had to be carted off the field during tonight’s matchup with the Blue Jays. He hurt his left ankle running to first base in the eighth inning. After the game, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times) that Amaya’s X-rays thankfully came back negative for a broken bone, but the backstop still sprained his ankle and will require a trip to the IL. While he has avoided the worst, this is nonetheless a tough blow for Amaya, who was playing in his first game back after suffering an oblique strain in May.

Chicago’s decision to keep Reese McGuire on the roster after reinstating Amaya now seems almost eerily prescient. The Cubs signed the veteran backup catcher to a minor league deal in the offseason and selected his contract when Amaya first went on the IL in May. One might have expected they would designate McGuire for assignment went Amaya returned, but instead, it was utility man Jon Berti who lost his roster spot.

Now the Cubs can simply go back to the catching setup they had been using for the past few months, a setup that was working perfectly well. Carson Kelly will remain the primary catcher with McGuire as his backup. Kelly has cooled down after a red-hot start, but he’s still hitting perfectly well for his position, as is McGuire. The two combined for a .723 OPS and 103 wRC+ during Amaya’s first IL stint, and they’ve both played strong defense behind the plate as well.

None of this is to say the Cubs won’t miss Amaya. The 26-year-old produced an .819 OPS and 126 wRC+ in 27 games prior to his oblique injury. He has a .797 OPS and 122 wRC+ in 83 games dating back to last July. A high BABIP and a low xwOBA suggest that degree of success is unsustainable, and the jury is still out on his defense, but that’s just the thing: Amaya is four years younger than Kelly or McGuire, with a lot less experience under his belt. He still has room to grow, and the Cubs want to figure out what kind of role he can play for their club over the next several years. It’s a lot harder to do that when he’s stuck on the shelf.

The Cubs have not yet addressed Amaya’s timeline, but it is certainly possible, and probably quite likely, that he’ll be back before the end of the year. Once rosters expand from 26 to 28 in September, it will be easier for the team to roster all three of Kelly, McGuire, and Amaya, should McGuire still be playing well if/when Amaya is ready to return.

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