Alex Bregman and the Red Sox have been linked together for much of the offseason, and multiple reports have indicated that the Sox have indeed showed some level of interest in Bregman. This interest is apparently in a somewhat limited capacity, however, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, writes that the Sox have been focusing on shorter-term offers with Bregman, with an eye towards signing him to “a deal of no more than four years” in length.
While four years is a pretty big commitment in the broad sense, it is certainly below the expectations that Bregman and his camp set at the start of the offseason. The Astros are known to have made Bregman a six-year, $156MM offer to stay in Houston, but Bregman was reportedly looking to hit the $200MM plateau in his next deal. It remains to be seen if that asking price is still realistic, but as of last week, Bregman was still looking for longer-term offers rather than considering a pivot to a shorter-term pact with opt-outs included.
In the most recent Bregman developments, KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander reported yesterday that Bregman had received at least three offers of five or more years over the course of the offseason, though it isn’t known which teams made those offers or if they’re still on the table. It would appear as though the Astros’ offer is still in play, as even though Houston signed Christian Walker and seemingly installed Isaac Paredes as their new third baseman, bringing back Bregman would see the Astros move Paredes to the keystone and longtime franchise icon Jose Altuve would move from second base to left field.
Against this backdrop, it would seem like the Red Sox are facing an uphill battle in convincing Bregman to sign for a maximum of four years. It can probably be assumed that such a four-year deal carries a high average annual salary and an opt-out clause or two is attached, fitting the standard model of shorter-term contracts signed by other Scott Boras clients. Such a deal would allow Bregman to re-enter free agency perhaps as early as next offseason, when he would aim to have another big platform season under his belt, and he would no longer be attached to a qualifying offer.
However, this scenario would see Bregman returning to the market in advance of his age-32 season, when teams might have even more misgivings about offering him a longer-term contract. And, as Bregman approaches his 31st birthday in March, he must certainly feel like he has already done enough in his outstanding career to merit a long-term commitment. Speculatively speaking, it could be that Bregman is facing a decision between accepting the Astros’ sixth guaranteed year (and the familiarity of staying with the organization), or perhaps taking a five-year deal that offers less long-term security but more money.
A traditional big spender in free agency, the Red Sox have largely shied away from major free agent commitments in recent years. Trevor Story (six-years, $140MM) and Masataka Yoshida (five years, $90MM) are the only free agents to receive three or more guaranteed years from Sox since October 2019, and the lack of result on those contracts may have only further soured ownership on opening the checkbook for lengthy open-market deals. Boston’s biggest contract of any kind since October 2019 was its ten-year, $313.5MM extension with Rafael Devers, which presents another obstacle in the way of a Bregman deal. The Sox have reportedly given some thought to moving Devers off the hot corner and across the diamond to first base, but Devers’ agent pretty firmly shot down that possibility back in November.
Boras said at the start of November that Bregman was open to a position change himself, and a move to second base instead of his longtime third-base spot. Such flexibility would’ve seemingly expanded the number of suitors that might be interested in Bregman, and it was specifically viewed as a possible nod to the chances of Bregman landing in Boston, if Devers was indeed staying put at third base (though Bregman is a much better fielder). Of course, the issue regarding Bregman anywhere in Boston’s infield is the fact that the Red Sox have star infield prospects Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer both knocking on the door of their big league debuts, so the Sox may not want to lock down second base for the forseeable future.
In a pure baseball sense, Bregman’s right-handed bat is an ideal fit for Boston’s lefty-tilted lineup, and a hitter of his caliber is an upgrade to virtually any team. Bregman is also friendly with manager Alex Cora due to their past time together in Houston when Cora was the Astros’ bench coach, and past reports have indicated that Cora and Red Sox president Sam Kennedy are the chief drivers of Boston’s interest in Bregman, while chief baseball officer Craig Breslow perhaps isn’t quite as on board. This split of opinion in management might perhaps explain why the Red Sox haven’t been as aggressive as others in courting Bregman, or offering him even a fifth guaranteed year.
