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Red Sox Agree To Minor League Deals With Seby Zavala, Nate Eaton

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The Red Sox have agreed to minor league deals with catcher Seby Zavala, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Boston is also in agreement on a minor league deal with utilityman Nate Eaton, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Eaton would earn a $780K base salary if selected to the 40-man roster. Both players will be invited to major league spring training.

Zavala, a client of Headline Sports Group, spent the 2024 season in the Mariners organization. Seattle acquired him alongside flamethrowing relief prospect Carlos Vargas in the trade sending Eugenio Suarez to the D-backs. The hope was that Zavala, a terrific defender behind the plate, could hold down the backup job to workhorse catcher Cal Raleigh.

Things didn’t pan out that way, however. The 31-year-old Zavala has never hit much, but last year’s .154/.214/.282 slash (in a tiny sample of 43 plate appearances) was too anemic for the M’s to stomach. Zavala was designated for assignment three different times but opted to stick with the M’s via outright assignment each time. He became a minor league free agent at season’s end.

Zavala has appeared in 194 big league games. He’s a career .205/.271/.342 hitter in that time. He’s shown passable power for his position and also displayed some pop in the minors, but Zavala has punched out in a staggering 35.9% of his 557 big league plate appearances. That lack of contact leaves him with practically no hope of producing at even an average level.

Defensively, it’s another story. Zavala regularly posts elite framing marks and draws above-average grades for his ability to block pitches in the dirt, per Statcast. He posted a below-average caught stealing rate in 2023 but was within one percentage point of league-average in both 2024 and 2022. The Red Sox currently only have two catchers on the 40-man roster: Connor Wong and Mickey Gasper. Adding some experienced depth is a sensible endeavor.

Eaton, 28 next month, is a client of Gaeta Sports Management. He didn’t play in the big leagues this past season but logged 72 games and 178 plate appearances for the Royals from 2022-23. He batted only .201/.266/.283 in that time, but the versatile right-handed hitter has a far better track record in the upper minors. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A Omaha, he’s a .261/.320/.455 hitter with 40 homers and 60 steals in 255 games (1060 plate appearances).

Eaton has played primarily third base in his professional career but has at least 600 innings at each of the three outfield slots in addition to another 350 frames at second base and 60 at shortstop. Statcast credited him with 97th percentile sprint speed in his two big league seasons, measuring him at a blazing 29.6 feet per second.

Boston’s bench should have some spots up for grabs. Utilityman Rob Refsnyder, another right-handed bat, figures to have one spot locked down, and Gasper does as well for the time being, currently profiling as the backup to Wong. Romy Gonzalez, Nick Sogard, Enmanuel Valdez and Vaughn Grissom could all be in the mix for spots as well, but they all have minor league options remaining. Eaton’s versatility could earn him a look in the majors with a big spring or a strong early showing with the Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in Worcester.

MLBTR Podcast: The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Red Sox acquire Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, will they still go after top free agents? (13:15)
  • Could the Reds and Royals line up on a trade involving Jonathan India and Brady Singer or some other Kansas City pitching? (17:25)
  • On the Top 50, none of the writers predicted the Orioles to sign top free agents. Are you underestimating David Rubenstein’s intention to speed up the timeline? (26:05)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Red Sox Designate Bryan Mata, Isaiah Campbell For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced they’ve designated right-handers Bryan Mata and Isaiah Campbell for assignment. The moves create the necessary 40-man roster spots for the previously reported additions of Hunter Dobbins and Jhostynxon Garcia to the roster.

Mata, 25, was once among the most highly-touted pitchers in the Boston system. The Venezuela native posted excellent numbers in the low minors and earned a 40-man roster spot after the 2020 season. He unfortunately hasn’t made it to the big leagues four years later, largely because of injury. Mata underwent Tommy John surgery early in the ’21 campaign. He hasn’t topped 83 innings in a minor league season since then.

A hamstring strain limited him to 22 2/3 innings between four minor league levels this year. Mata turned in a 4.37 ERA as he tried to work to the majors. He has allowed 4.87 earned runs per nine through 87 career Triple-A frames. The Sox will likely non-tender him on Friday and try to bring him back on a minor league deal, but he could look for other opportunities if he hits free agency.

Campbell, 27, also lost most of the season to injury. Acquired from the Mariners last offseason for infielder Luis Urías, he only pitched 6 2/3 innings in a Sox uniform. Campbell was blitzed for 13 runs in that small sample, a far cry from the 2.83 ERA he posted in 27 appearances for the Mariners as a rookie. The Arkansas product missed time with both a shoulder impingement and elbow inflammation amidst a difficult year.

Red Sox To Select Hunter Dobbins, Jhostynxon Garcia

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The Red Sox are adding a pair of players to their 40-man roster ahead of tonight’s Rule 5 protection deadline. Right-hander Hunter Dobbins is having his contract selected, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier adds that Boston will also select outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Those are the only two players the Sox are adding, per Speier. They’ll need to open a pair of 40-man spots in order to make them official.

Boston selected Dobbins, now 25, with their eighth-round pick in 2021. He started 21 Double-A games and another four in Triple-A this past season, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 22.9% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. Dobbins was the organization’s minor league starting pitcher of the season and ended the year ranked 26th among the team’s farmhands, per Baseball America. He’s 93-94 mph with his heater on average and pairs the pitch with a slider, splitter and curveball.

The 21-year-old Garcia (first name pronounced yos-TIN-son) split this past season between Low-A, High-A and Double-A. He laid waste to pitchers at the former levels (.258/.365/.517, five homers in 104 plate appearances in Low-A; .311/.371/.627, 16 homers in 229 plate appearances in High-A) before posting more modest results at the most advanced of his three stops (.263/.320/.386, two homes in 126 plate appearances).

Garcia is a power-over-hit prospect who’s played center field but seems likelier to settle into a corner. He walked in just 7.2% of his plate appearances this season against a 21.7% strikeout rate. That marks an improvement over the 30.4% strikeout rate he logged in 2022 and the 25.5% mark he posted in 2023, but the increased contact has come at the expense of his formerly plus walk rates.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Red Sox’ Cooper Criswell Eligible For Fourth Option Year

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The Red Sox’ pitching depth has more flexibility than might’ve been otherwise apparent at first glance. Right-hander Cooper Criswell exhausted his third and typically final option year in 2024, but Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox will actually hold a fourth option year on Criswell.

It’s standard in Major League Baseball for players to have three “option” years where they can be freely sent down to a minor league affiliate without first clearing waivers. An “option year” is used when any player on the 40-man roster is optioned to the minors and spends at least 20 days there. This applies even to players who’ve yet to make their big league debut but are optioned to a minor league affiliate out of spring training. However, the league grants a fourth option year for players who exhaust their three original three option years in fewer than five professional seasons (defined as 90-plus days on a major league or minor league active roster/injured list).

In the case of Criswell, he’s a 2018 draftee of the Angels who’s appeared in exactly five full seasons: 2019 and 2021-24. (He wasn’t on the roster for the abbreviated 2020 campaign.) The Halos originally selected him to the 40-man roster in 2021, and he was optioned in each of the three subsequent seasons throughout the course of stints with the Halos, Rays and Red Sox.

For the Red Sox, it’s a nice boon. Criswell goes from a back-end starter/swingman who’d have to be rostered on Opening Day to a valuable fifth/sixth starter who can be shuttled between their Triple-A affiliate in nearby Worcester and the major league roster. Criswell, who signed a big league deal with the Sox after being non-tendered by the Rays last winter, clearly pitched his way into the club’s plans with 99 1/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball between the rotation and bullpen. He fanned a below-average 17.2% of opponents against a strong 7.3% walk rate and impressive 50.3% ground-ball rate.

Right now, the locks in the Boston rotation are Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello. Veteran Lucas Giolito, once healthy, will eventually join them. Criswell, Quinn Priester and Richard Fitts are among the other options near the back of the rotation.

The Sox figure to add at least one starting pitcher via free agency and/or trade. They’ve been linked to the top names on the market already and have at least signaled a willingness to act more aggressively than in recent offseasons. Criswell’s extra option year gives them some flexibility and will help the team preserve depth if and when additional rotation arms are added in the weeks and months ahead.

Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Willy Adames

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Willy Adames is drawing “very broad” interest in free agency, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) naming the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, and Red Sox as clubs looking at the shortstop.  The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are also mentioned in a somewhat more speculative fashion, under the general premise that teams with infield needs — rather than specific shortstop needs — have Adames on their radar.

Reports surfaced a couple of weeks ago that Adames was open to moving off shortstop if the situation warranted, thus further opening up his market of potential suitors.  Looking at Morosi’s list, the Braves would seemingly be the only one of the four clubs that would be looking at Adames as a shortstop, since Atlanta has a clear need at the position.

Orlando Arcia struggled through a very rough year at the plate in 2024, and replacing Arcia with Adames at shortstop would provide a huge upgrade to the Braves’ lineup.  Signing Adames would represent a new frontier for Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, as Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 offseason is the largest free agent contract Anthopoulos has handed out over his seven-plus years running the Braves’ front office.

Adames’ expected contract would more than double Ozuna’s deal.  MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM contract for Adames.  Adding somewhere in the range of $26.6MM in average annual value onto the Braves’ books would continue to boost a payroll that has plenty of long-term commitments in place, though Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias are both free agents after the 2025 season, and technically Chris Sale could be as well if Atlanta doesn’t exercise a club option on his services for 2026.

Signing with Boston would open up several defensive possibilities for Adames.  Trevor Story is the incumbent shortstop and still an excellent defender, even if injuries have limited Story’s offense and playing time altogether over his three seasons with the Red Sox.  Story is still owed $77.5MM through the 2027 season, and while he can opt out of his contract after the 2025 campaign, an opt-out doesn’t seem at all likely given the veteran infielder’s last few years.

The Sox used Story at second base in 2022 when Xander Bogaerts was still on the team, so Story could shift over to the keystone again to accommodate Adames.  Or, perhaps the simplest answer is just to install Adames as the regular second baseman, hopefully finally ending the revolving door that has been Boston’s second base position in recent years.

Star prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could slot into the infield mix as early as 2025 if Campbell isn’t utilized as an outfielder.  Once the Sox see what they have in the youngsters and need to find playing time, the Red Sox could them perhaps use Adames as a third baseman, bumping Rafael Devers into a first base or DH role.  There are plenty of moving parts defensively, yet Adames would provide a clear boost to a lineup in sore need of a big right-handed bat.

Bo Bichette is coming off a miserable 2024 season, yet he remains Toronto’s everyday shortstop heading into his final year of team control.  With Bichette in the fold, the Jays could use Adames at second or (more likely) third base, as the Blue Jays’ collective of in-house young infielders are almost all better suited defensively to the keystone than the hot corner.

If Bichette was to leave in free agency next winter, Toronto could explore simply moving Adames back to shortstop, thus addressing a major position in relatively easy fashion.  Second and third base could then be occupied on a more permanent basis by one of the Blue Jays’ incumbent infielders, depending on which stood out during the 2025 season.  Again, the offensive upgrade is obvious, since Adames, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and what the Jays hope will be a resurgent Bichette form a powerful lineup core on paper.

It is worth mentioning that Adames has played virtually his entire MLB career at the shortstop position, and he hasn’t played anywhere else on the diamond since making 10 appearances as a second baseman during his 2018 rookie season with the Rays.  Moving to third base would therefore represent an entirely new challenge for the 29-year-old, which provides an interesting backdrop to the Astros’ pursuit.

Since Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve have the middle infield positions covered, Houston would therefore be looking at Adames as a third baseman if Alex Bregman signed elsewhere.  Astros GM Dana Brown has described re-signing Bregman as “our biggest priority,” so while Bregman’s departure is far from a foregone conclusion, the Astros surely have some backup plans in mind if their longtime third baseman did leave.

Replacing Bregman with another high-priced free agent infielder would count as a bit of a surprise, given how Brown has said his club “may have to get a little bit creative” in managing the payroll this winter.  The same applies to the Blue Jays, as Toronto already posted a team-record high payroll in 2024 with only a last-place finish in the AL East to show for it.  The Red Sox have plenty of payroll room open, and while the team has shied away from major free agents in the last few years, Boston has already been linked to a wide range of top names (Juan Soto, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell), so the Sox seem to be signaling that they are ready to again shop in the high-rent district.

Since Adames is sure to reject the Brewers’ qualifying offer, a new team would face some sort of penalty for signing him.  The Braves and Astros both exceeded the luxury tax in 2024, and thus signing Adames or any qualified free agent would cost the club $1MM in international bonus pool money, plus their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft.  It is a steep penalty to pay, though the draft hit could be slightly lessened in the form of a compensatory pick after the fourth round if either the teams’ own qualified free agents (Houston’s Bregman, Atlanta’s Fried) signed elsewhere.

The Blue Jays (just barely) and Red Sox stayed under the tax threshold this season, so both would have to give up $500K of international bonus pool money as well as their second-highest 2025 draft selection.  The Sox also have a qualified free agent of their own in Nick Pivetta, and if Pivetta departed, Boston’s compensatory pick could come before the start of the third draft round.

Red Sox Interested In Blake Snell

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Upgrading the rotation is a known goal for the Red Sox this winter, with such trade targets and free agents as Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, and old friend Nathan Eovaldi already reportedly on Boston’s radar in the offseason’s early stages.  Blake Snell is another prominent name also under consideration, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (in a recent appearance on the Baseball Bar-B-Cast) said the Sox “are talking with” the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

The Red Sox were somewhat lightly linked to Snell’s market when he was a free agent last year, as while reports suggested the Sox had some level of interest in the left-hander, other pitchers like Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery were ahead of Snell on Boston’s wish list.  As it turned out, the Sox didn’t end up landing any of the top-tier arms available on the market, even though Snell and Montgomery were both available deep into Spring Training, and Montgomery didn’t end up signing with the Diamondbacks until Opening Day.

At this point in the winter calendar, it is fair to assume the Red Sox are “in on” several pitchers to one degree or another, so it isn’t any surprise that they’ve reached out to Snell out of due diligence alone.  That said, the two parties are a natural fit, which is likely why MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco each predicted Snell would indeed sign with Boston as part of our site’s top 50 free agent projections (Snell ranks fourth on our list, and is predicted to land a five-year, $160MM contract).

The Red Sox have largely eschewed making splashy signings in recent years, as the club has been more focused on reloading the minor league system and finding value signings than making a truly aggressive bid to contend.  After three straight non-winning seasons, patience is running thin within the fanbase, and there is some increased pressure on the Sox front office to make a big-budget signing as a clear marker that the club wants to win.  Landing a top pitcher like Snell would certainly count in this category, and give the Sox the ace-level pitcher the rotation so clearly needs.

Snell’s extended stay in free agency ended last winter when he joined the Giants in mid-March, and the abbreviated nature of his Spring Training prep initially seemed to be leading to a disastrous season.  The left-hander’s first three months in San Francisco resulted in two injured-list stints and a 9.51 ERA over six starts and 23 2/3 innings, and yet as has so often been the case in Snell’s career, he only got better as the season developed.  In the most extreme example yet of Snell’s second-half surges, he had a phenomenal 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts and 80 1/3 innings, once again re-establishing himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers.  As such, Snell chose to exercise the opt-out clause in his two-year, $62MM deal with San Francisco, foregoing the $30MM owed to him in 2025 in order to chase a pricier long-term commitment.

This isn’t to say that some of the questions that clouded Snell’s market last winter have entirely disappeared.  He was again hampered by injuries, and is now another year old, as he’ll turn 32 in December.  However, one key difference between Snell’s free agent status from last year to this year is that he no longer has a qualifying offer attached to his services.  Snell rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer last winter, and since the QO can only be issued to a player once in his career, a team is free to sign Snell without having to surrender any compensation.

Boston would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money as well as its second-highest pick in next year’s draft in order to sign a qualified free agent.  It can be argued that Snell’s lack of QO status is a bigger deal for luxury tax payors, as since they face a stiffer penalty for signing one of the 13 free agents who were issued qualifying offers this offseason, a pitcher like Snell might have more appeal than a qualified pitcher like Fried or Corbin Burnes.

Still, the Red Sox would certainly love to avoid losing a draft pick if they can help it, plus the Sox could also be considering Snell and a qualified free agent.  For instance, the Sox are interested in Juan Soto and Teoscar Hernandez among the position player class, in addition to their quest for rotation help.  Nick Pivetta also appears likely to reject Boston’s qualifying offer, so the Sox would get a compensatory pick back if Pivetta signed elsewhere.

Juan Soto Rumors: Red Sox, Yankees, Jays, Dodgers

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Juan Soto’s free agency will be the primary narrative this offseason until he chooses his next landing spot, though there’s no indication that things are close. The 26-year-old superstar began meeting with teams this week but is still in the early stages of the process. For instance, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com reports that while the Red Sox feel their three-hour meeting with Soto and agent Scott Boras was “productive,” it was more introductory and informative than anything else. The two sides did not discuss years and dollars; the Sox pitched Soto on their plans for the future, their upcoming wave of high-end prospects and other aspects of the organization, while Soto sought to learn about their player evaluation methods, Fenway Park’s facilities, etc. It’s common for early meetings of this nature for top-end free agents to be introductory in nature, so this isn’t necessarily unique to Soto.

The Red Sox haven’t been involved in the deep waters of free agency in recent offseasons. Trevor Story is the lone nine-figure expenditure for the Sox in the past five years. Since signing David Price in 2015, the Red Sox have only gone beyond two years on a free agent four times (Story, J.D. Martinez, Masataka Yoshida and Nathan Eovaldi). Given that, it’s not surprising to see one of the elements Soto hoped to gauge (per McAdam) was the team’s “commitment to winning.”

That said, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that the Red Sox are approaching their pursuit of Soto with a level of “intent” that we’ve not seen from Boston “in some time.” Intent alone won’t win the bidding, of course, but the Sox have not been characterized as major players for top-end free agents in recent years. All indications this offseason seem to signal a shift in direction.

The incumbent Yankees and crosstown Mets are still perceived by many as the favorites to win the Soto bidding, once formal offers begin rolling in. To this point, it doesn’t seem the process has reached that point. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are comfortable going to 13 years and topping Aaron Judge’s $40MM annual salary in order to keep Soto, placing their baseline comfort level somewhere in the $520MM range overall. Most expectations are that Soto will exceed that mark by a fair margin, but it’s a notable starting point all the same.

Meanwhile, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet takes a look at at the Blue Jays’ interest in Soto, noting that as was the case with Shohei Ohtani last offseason, ownership views him as an exception to any other offseason budgetary plans. Toronto’s pursuit of Soto is not an indication that if the Jays miss out on the star slugger, they’ll pivot and spend $500-700MM elsewhere in free agency. Within his previously referenced column, Heyman doubles down on prior reporting that the Blue Jays plan to be aggressive in their pursuit of Soto.

That’s not necessarily the case with all of his expected suitors. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Dodgers “won’t chase after Soto,” having already committed to nine more years of Ohtani and thus potentially restricting them in the event that Soto eventually needs to spend more time at designated hitter. They’ll be opportunistic and perhaps jump into the fray if the market doesn’t develop as Soto hopes, though that seems unlikely, given the robust demand for his services and a potential Bronx-versus-Queens bidding war.

Up until last winter, with Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, that was generally how Los Angeles had approached the market under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Though they regularly fielded one of the game’s largest payrolls and most star-studded rosters, most of the Dodgers’ star power over the years was acquired on the trade market (e.g. Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow) or developed in-house (e.g. Will Smith, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager prior to his free agent departure). Freddie Freeman was the lone big-ticket free agent acquisition, and he came on board with a deferral-laden deal after an extended stay on the open market. That scenario almost certainly won’t happen with Soto.

As it stands, there’s still no expected timetable for when Soto might reach a decision or when offers might be presented in earnest. The fact that the Red Sox didn’t even delve into numbers speaks to the current preliminary stage of the bidding process. It’s always possible Soto could decide he wants to accelerate the process and have a team by the end of the month, but a decision at some point in December feels likelier.

Red Sox Sign Justin Wilson

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The Red Sox announced they’ve added lefty reliever Justin Wilson on a one-year contract. Boston had an opening on the 40-man roster, which is now at capacity. Wilson, an ACES client, is reportedly guaranteed $2.25MM on a deal that offers another $750K in incentives. He’d earn $150K apiece for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances.

Wilson, 37, has a lengthy track record in the majors but has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year to pitch 46 2/3 innings for Cincinnati but was tagged for an unsightly 5.59 earned run average in that time. A good portion of those struggles were due to spikes in his average on balls in play and home run rate, the latter of which was directly influenced by the hitter-friendly nature of his home park in Cincinnati. Seven of the ten homers surrendered by Wilson last year came at Great American Ball Park, which has been far and away MLB’s most homer-friendly setting over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s Park Factors. (Boston’s Fenway Park is right in the middle of the pack at No. 16.)

Wilson’s run-prevention numbers were uninspiring, but his rate stats were far more encouraging. Both his 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate were better than league average. The 95.5 mph he averaged on his four-seamer was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 95.9 mph average in 2017. The 92.3 mph he averaged on his cutter was a career-high. Metrics like xFIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.41), which normalize a pitcher’s homer-to-flyball rate, both feel Wilson is a strong bet to rebound in 2025 if he can continue at his 2024 pace.

From 2015-20, Wilson was one of the most consistently effective lefties in the game. He appeared in 344 games between the Yankees, Tigers, Cubs and Mets during that span, totaling 291 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. His command looked far better than usual in his ’24 showing with the Reds, and his ability to miss bats didn’t seem overly compromised. The veteran Wilson is no stranger to late-inning work, having picked up 142 holds and 20 saves in his 12 major league seasons.

Entering the offseason, Brennan Bernardino was the only lefty reliever who could be comfortably projected for Boston’s 2025 bullpen. Fellow southpaws Bailey Horn, Cam Booser and Chris Murphy are on the 40-man roster as well. However, Murphy had Tommy John surgery last year and won’t be ready for Opening Day. Horn and Booser come with little to no big league experience of which to speak. Wilson will provide skipper Alex Cora with a seasoned veteran who’s still capable of missing bats and, if he can get back to pre-surgery levels of run prevention, could eventually emerge as a viable leverage option at a bargain price point.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report that Wilson and the Red Sox had an agreement. Rob Bradford of WEEI first reported it was a one-year major league deal with a $2.25MM base salary and $750K in incentives. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the specific incentive structure.

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