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Rangers To Sign Joc Pederson

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The Rangers and slugger Joc Pederson are in agreement on a contract, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per ESPN’s Buster Olney, the deal guaranteed Pederson two years and $37MM with an opt-out following the 2025 campaign. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported last night that the Rangers and Pederson were in contact regarding a potential deal.

Pederson, 32, has now signed his fifth consecutive contract that allows him to re-enter free agency after just one year. The slugger first reached free agency during the 2020-21 offseason and signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. He followed that up with a one-year deal with the Giants before accepting the Qualifying Offer from the club the following offseason, and most recently signed yet another one-year pact with the Diamondbacks last winter. His newest deal offers a bit more security, however, given that it comes with a player option for a second season.

The constant trips through free agency haven’t stopped Pederson from being one of the most productive lefty bats in the majors in recent years. Since making his second career All-Star appearance in 2022 as a member of the Giants, Pederson has slashed a fantastic .262/.365/.485 with a 135 wRC+. That figure leaves him with the 16th-highest wRC+ in baseball among qualified hitters over the past three seasons, and he’s sandwiched comfortably between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez on that leaderboard.

Given that he’s provided superstar-caliber offense on the cheap to multiple teams in recent years, it may seem somewhat surprising for Pederson to wind up with yet another relatively short-term deal that guarantees him less than $20MM per year. That discrepancy is primarily due to Pederson’s extremely limited profile. While he’s a phenomenal hitter who rakes against right-handed pitching, his profile features a massive platoon split and he’s typically been at his best throughout his career when he sits against same-handed pitching as much as possible. He’s a career .210/.300/.330 (78 wRC+) hitter against left-handed pitching and even in the past three seasons has floated a pedestrian 104 wRC+ against southpaws.

Perhaps that on its own wouldn’t be enough to stop Pederson from getting a hefty contract in free agency, but he’s also a poor defender in the outfield who didn’t put on a glove a single time during his year in Arizona after starting just 23 games in the outfield in San Francisco the prior year. His last season as a regular on defense in 2022 saw Pederson struggle to a -11 Outs Above Average figure that landed him near the bottom of the league’s leaderboards. Even with prodigious hitting talent, Pederson’s earning power has been consistently limited on the open market due to relatively minimal upside available in signing a platoon bat who’s increasingly restricted to DH-only duties. With that context, Pederson actually did quite well in landing the deal he got from the Rangers; his $37MM guarantee significantly outpaces the two-year, $24MM pact MLBTR predicted he would land when placing him as the #24 free agent on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list at the outset of the winter.

For the Rangers, the addition of Pederson offers some much-needed thump to a lineup that finished just 22nd in the majors with a 95 wRC+ last year. That includes utterly abysmal production at DH, where Texas managed just a 65 wRC+ that was second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Reds. The addition of Pederson not only adds another big lefty bat to the Rangers lineup to complement his former Dodgers teammate Corey Seager but also makes up for the loss of Nathaniel Lowe, who the club traded to the Nationals just last night. The additions of Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, and Jake Burger to the club’s lineup in conjunction with better health from youngsters Josh Jung and Evan Carter should give the Rangers a much stronger offense up and down the batting order while allowing the club to lean less heavily on utility man Josh Smith, who was one of the team’s top offensive contributors in the first half but faded to hit just .215/.265/.300 after the All-Star break.

With Pederson now in the fold, RosterResource projects the Rangers for a payroll of just under $217MM for 2025, and that figure jumps up to just over $229MM for luxury tax purposes. That leaves around $11MM left for the club to work with before the first luxury tax threshold, which it was reported earlier this winter that the club hopes to duck under next year. While the rotation was addressed by bringing back Nathan Eovaldi and the lineup appears to be in good shape at the moment, the club still appears to be a piece or two short in the bullpen even after adding Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, and Robert Garcia. It’s possible the Rangers could look to follow the example they laid out in the deal that sent Lowe to D.C. in exchange for Garcia and deal a potential trade candidate like Leody Taveras, Dane Dunning, or Jon Gray in a deal that bolsters their relief corps while also freeing up payroll space that could help them land a proven closer such as Kirby Yates or David Robertson, both of whom pitched well for the Rangers in 2024 but elected free agency last month.

Now that Pederson is headed to Texas, a handful of other suitors will need to look elsewhere. The incumbent Diamondbacks reportedly had interest in a reunion with Pederson earlier this month, though it’s possible that the club’s recent trade for Josh Naylor eliminated that need and leaves them in position instead to look for some right-handed thump to replace outgoing first baseman Christian Walker. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were connected to both Pederson and Naylor in the rumor mill and at this point could be further motivated to land a notable bat such as Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez now that many of the club’s lower-level targets have come off the board.

Mariners Made Two-Year Offer To Carlos Santana

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The Guardians made a splash over the weekend by signing first baseman Carlos Santana to a one-year deal worth $12MM, bringing the long-time Cleveland staple back into the fold for the third time in his career. With that being said, however, it wasn’t the only contract offer Santana received during his free agency. According to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic this morning, the Mariners extended an offer to Santana that came with more guaranteed money than the one he landed in Cleveland. Rosenthal also cited the Yankees, Mets, Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Rangers, and Padres among clubs that had interest in the switch-hitter before he ultimately landed in Cleveland.

Regarding Seattle’s offer, Rosenthal specifies that not only did the deal come with more guaranteed money, but it actually involved a player option for the 2026 season, allowing Santana to either opt out and return to free agency or remain with the club. It’s somewhat surprising to hear that a club was willing to guarantee a second guaranteed year to Santana, who will celebrate his 39th birthday in early April. Rosenthal describes the Mariners as Santana’s “initial priority” until the Guardians realized that they could trade Josh Naylor to another Santana suitor, the Diamondbacks. At that point, the Guardians offered Santana (who had coincidentally just sold his Cleveland area home) the one-year deal he went on to sign.

The Mariners briefly acquired Santana from the Phillies during the 2018-19 offseason but flipped him to Cleveland shortly thereafter, before he ever suited up for the club. He eventually returned to the organization in 2022 after being traded there by the Royals, and this time his stay lasted 79 games. In 294 trips to the plate for Seattle, Santana hit .192/.293/.400. Despite that sub-Mendoza Line batting average, Santana’s performance was actually good for an above-average 103 wRC+ thanks to a strong 11.9% walk rate and the 15 home runs he clobbered down the stretch for the club.

That half-season stint evidently made enough of an impression with the Mariners that they were interested in a reunion as they searched for first base help this winter. Earlier this winter, the Mariners were reportedly pursuing a reunion with either Carlos Santana or Justin Turner at first base. Turner is still available, though it’s unclear whether that interest on Seattle’s end has persisted as the first base market has shifted in recent days. Of the six teams besides Cleveland that Rosenthal noted had interest in Santana’s services, three of them have found solutions in the days since: the Rangers replaced Nathaniel Lowe with Joc Pederson, the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt, and of course the Diamondbacks traded for Naylor and opened the door for Santana to re-sign in Cleveland.

For the Mariners, Mets, and Padres, there’s still a number of interesting first base options available. Turner has been a reliably above average hitter 11 consecutive seasons now but celebrated his 40th birthday last month, a reality that could give some teams pause about committing to him as a regular option if they can’t offer significant time at DH as well. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent available at first base, though barring a sudden change in plans by the Padres or Mariners it seems unlikely he would fit the budgets rumored to be in play for San Diego and Seattle. Anthony Rizzo, Mark Canha, Josh Bell, and Yuli Gurriel are among a number of veteran options at the position who could likely be had on a low-cost deal, and the trade market offers the possibility that the Giants could part ways with LaMonte Wade Jr. or perhaps even a deal with the Rays involving Yandy Diaz, who hasn’t been the subject of many trade rumors this winter but appeared to be available prior to this summer’s trade deadline.

Rangers Met With Roki Sasaki, Giants “Believed To Have Met” With Sasaki As Well

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Roki Sasaki won’t be eligible to officially sign with an MLB organization until mid-January, but that hasn’t stopped him from making headlines in December. Last week, it was reported that the NPB phenom had met with at least three MLB teams: the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs. Today, Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young confirmed that representatives from his club met with Sasaki last week (per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports the Giants are “believed to have met” with Sasaki and his representatives.

It comes as no surprise that both teams are interested in Sasaki. The Giants could use more starting pitching, and they’re likely to add at least one starter this offseason, whether it’s Sasaki or someone else. The Rangers, on the other hand, already have a full rotation, but regardless, Sasaki is the kind of player any team would make room for. The two-time NPB All-Star is widely considered one of the most promising young pitchers in the world, and his earning potential is capped by the rules of international amateur free agency. As of right now, Texas can’t pay him any more than a $6,261,600 bonus, while San Francisco can’t offer him more than a $5,146,200 bonus.

The Rangers have long had an eye on Sasaki. At the beginning of the 2024 season, they were one of eight teams that reportedly sent representatives to watch Sasaki pitch in Japan. One can also understand why Sasaki would be interested in joining their club. Not only are the Rangers recent World Series winners, but they have been one of the most active teams this offseason on both the trade and free agent markets. Furthermore, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe recently mentioned that Sasaki grew up “idolizing” numerous Japanese pitchers who made the jump from NPB to MLB. The first example Wolfe named was Yu Darvish, who signed with the Rangers when he first arrived stateside in 2012. Evan Grant points out that a pair of front office executives who were “key” in signing Darvish, assistant general manager Josh Boyd and Pacific Rim Operations Director Joe Furukawa, are still working in the organization.

As for the Giants, POBO Buster Posey has been particularly vocal about his interest in Sasaki. Speaking at the Winter Meetings, he told reporters (including Maria Guardado of MLB.com), “We’d be over the moon to add a guy like that.” While Posey only spoke of Sasaki’s talent, one has to presume he’s also captivated by the price tag. The Giants have been closely linked to free agent Corbin Burnes this winter. But Burnes is presumably looking to sign a contract worth well over $200MM. According to Susan Slusser, there are questions about whether or not ownership will be willing to foot that bill. In Sasaki, the Giants could add a top-of-the-rotation starter for a fraction of the market price.

From Sasaki’s point of view, it’s worth noting that San Francisco is much closer to Japan (and has a bigger Japanese population) than New York, Chicago, or Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Neither Sasaki nor Wolfe has suggested the pitcher has a geographic preference for where he signs, but Giants general manager Zack Minasian has expressed hope that San Francisco’s relative proximity to Japan will make “a big difference” (per Guardado). Minasian also mentioned the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park as a potential draw. After all, Sasaki is used to pitching in a very different offensive environment – runs are harder to come by in NPB. What’s more, he is presumably looking to put up numbers that are as impressive as possible. Six years in the future, those numbers will help him cash in big as an unrestricted free agent.

Ultimately, we still know very little about what Sasaki’s thinking or where he might end up. The Dodgers and, to a lesser extent, the Padres are frequently cited as the front-runners to sign him, but it’s not for nothing that he has met with so many other teams. (Nor is it clear if he has met with either the Dodgers or Padres yet.) Slusser identifies the Diamondbacks as another NL West suitor for his services, though it’s unclear if he has met with anyone from the team. Meanwhile, the Phillies are the only club we know for certain has not met with Sasaki. Last week, POBO Dave Dombrowski revealed that although the Phillies would love to speak with Sasaki, they have not been invited to do so.

Rangers Sign Patrick Murphy To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed right-handed pitcher Patrick Murphy to a minor league contract, the team announced. The deal comes with an invitation to spring training. Murphy last appeared in the majors in 2022.

Over parts of three seasons with the Blue Jays and Nationals from 2020-22, Murphy pitched 39 2/3 innings across 35 games. He put up a 4.76 ERA and 4.31 SIERA, thanks in large part to a 48.0% groundball rate that helped him limit opposing batters to just three home runs. However, that wasn’t enough to keep either Toronto or Washington interested in having him around for long. The Blue Jays, who drafted the righty in 2013, designated him for assignment in August 2021. The Nationals, who had picked him up off of waivers, sent him outright to Triple-A in April 2022. He elected free agency at the end of the season.

Murphy spent the 2023 campaign in the Twins system. He pitched relatively well at Triple-A, putting up a 3.69 ERA and 4.40 FIP in a hybrid reliever/long reliever/starter role. Unfortunately, he failed to earn a promotion to the big league squad at any point during the year. However, his performance drew the attention of the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of NPB, who signed him to a one-year contract with a team option for 2025.

Murphy had a serviceable 2024 campaign for the Fighters. His 3.26 ERA in 38 2/3 innings looks impressive by MLB standards, but it’s important to keep in mind that the league-average ERA in the Pacific League this past year was 3.04. What’s more, his 9.5% walk rate was notably worse than the 7.3% league average. Murphy also made a handful of starts for the Fighters’ minor league affiliate in the Eastern League, pitching to a 4.29 ERA in 21 innings; the league average was 3.28.

At the end of the season, the Fighters chose not to exercise Murphy’s option for 2025. The Rangers, however, must have seen something to like in his arm. The team has made several additions to the big league bullpen this winter, and they might not be finished, but there still could be a couple of spots available for the taking this spring. Murphy won’t be a favorite to make the Opening Day roster, but his ability to pitch multiple innings in an outing means he is an appealing depth option for the team to stash at Triple-A.

Rangers Interested In Re-Signing Kirby Yates

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The Rangers have already added four relievers this offseason: Robert Garcia, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong, and Hoby Milner. However, they’re still lacking a proven high-leverage arm; Webb, Garcia, Armstrong, and Milner have a total of 15 career saves among them. With that in mind, president of baseball operations Chris Young still has work left to do. He acknowledged as much, telling Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, “We’re going to need to continue to pursue leverage arms.”

To that point, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently described re-signing Kirby Yates as “a priority” for Texas. Similarly, Grant wrote that they would “absolutely love” to re-sign their All-Star closer. Yates was phenomenal for the Rangers in 2024. The veteran right-hander pitched to a 1.17 ERA and 2.85 SIERA in 61 appearances, saving 33 games in 34 chances. He was just as successful at inducing whiffs as he was at limiting hard contact, thanks to a highly effective four-seam and splitter pairing. Despite his 37 years of age, he was one of the most dominant closers in the game, vastly outperforming the one-year, $4.5MM contract he signed ahead of the season.

It’s easy to see why the Rangers would love to reunite with Yates, even though he’ll come with a much higher price tag this time. MLBTR put Yates at no. 38 on our Top 50 Free Agents list, predicting he’d sign a one-year, $14MM deal. Young might have to get creative to find room in the budget for a contract like that – Texas is reportedly trying to drop beneath the luxury tax threshold in 2025 – but his recent decision to trade Nathaniel Lowe shows he’s not afraid to do just that. RosterResource currently puts the Rangers’ luxury tax payroll at approximately $229MM, which is $12MM below the first tier of the tax. Signing Yates could push them over, but not so far over that Young wouldn’t be able to find a way to bring them back down.

The Rangers bullpen finished 26th in ERA and 23rd in SIERA in 2024. To make matters worse, they lost their four most experienced, high-leverage arms to free agency: Yates, David Robertson, Andrew Chafin, and José Leclerc. Arms like Webb, Garcia, Armstrong, and Milner will be much-needed reinforcements, but none can quite replace what the team lost at the back end of the ’pen. Thus, bringing back Yates makes perfect sense. A.J. Minter, another veteran arm who has been linked to the Rangers, could potentially fill that hole instead.

Rangers Sign Shawn Armstrong To Major League Deal

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The Rangers announced this afternoon that they’ve signed right-hander Shawn Armstrong to a one-year, major league deal. In order to make room for Armstrong on the 40-man roster, catcher Sam Huff was designated for assignment.

Armstrong, 34, is a veteran of 10 major league seasons. He bounced between Cleveland, Seattle, Baltimore, and Miami as a roughly league average (99 ERA+) middle reliever before finally establishing himself with the Rays in 2022. The right-hander posted a 3.60 ERA with a 3.25 FIP in 55 innings of work for Tampa that season, with a 26% strikeout rate against a 5.4% walk rate. His strong walk rate was particularly notable given that Armstrong had struggled a bit with his command earlier in his career and entered the 2022 campaign with a career 9.2% walk rate.

That solid work earned Armstrong a role in the club’s bullpen the following year as well, and 2023 proved to be a career year for the righty. He pitched to a sparkling 1.38 ERA in 52 innings of work to go along with a 2.54 FIP, though he didn’t break into the club’s group of top high leverage options and instead was used more frequently as a multi-inning option. 16 of his 39 appearances saw him record more than three outs, including 12 where he recorded two full innings or more. Unfortunately, Armstrong did not manage to keep up those strong results in 2024. The right-hander bounced between the Rays, Cardinals, and Cubs this year but posted a below-average 4.86 ERA (84 ERA+) despite a solid 3.57 FIP. Despite that solid peripheral figure, there were some signs of regression for the right-hander as his strikeout rate dipped to just 22.4% against an 8.5% walk rate.

Now that he’s latched on with the Rangers, Armstrong will join a bullpen that the needs a major retool after losing Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates to free agency last month. He’s the fourth addition to the relief corps GM Chris Young has made this winter, joining Hoby Milner, Robert Garcia, and Jacob Webb. That quartet of signings should help to raise the floor in the bullpen, and Garcia in particular is a Statcast darling who profiles as a potential late-inning arm. With that being said, it seems likely the club will need to make at least one more addition with late-inning experience after losing its top three relievers simultaneously.

As for Huff, the 26-year-old was a seventh-round pick by the club back in 2016 and received some top-100 prospect buzz early in his career after tearing through the minors and hitting an incredible .355/.394/.742 in a ten-game cup of coffee during the shortened 2020 season. Impressive as that first taste of the majors was for Huff, he posted a roughly league average .244/.299/.409 in 65 games over the next three seasons and in 2024 made it into just three games. Huff’s numbers also took a major step backwards in Triple-A this past year, as he hit just .246/.310/.416 in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League.

With Jonah Heim and the newly-signed Kyle Higashioka seemingly locking up playing time at the big league level for the Rangers for the foreseeable future, the Rangers clearly felt Huff was expendable given that he’ll be out of options in 2025 and need to either be carried on the big league roster or passed through waivers. Typically the Rangers would have one week to either work out a trade involving Huff or attempt to pass him through waivers. With that said, that clock has put on pause over the holidays in previous seasons, so it’s possible that a resolution for Huff won’t ultimately be announced until the new year. Should Huff clear waivers, the Rangers would have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues as non-roster depth.

Nationals Acquire Nathaniel Lowe

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The Nationals and Rangers have swung a one-for-one trade that will see first baseman Nathaniel Lowe head to Washington in exchange for left-hander Robert Garcia.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) was the first to report the deal, which has now been officially announced by both teams.

Lowe will change teams via trade for the second time in his career, as it was just over four years ago that Lowe was dealt from the Rays to the Rangers as part of a six-player swap.  The Rays’ first base depth had left Lowe struggling for playing time in his first two MLB seasons, but he immediately found a regular job once Texas installed him as its everyday first baseman.  Lowe has played in 615 of a possible 648 regular-season games in his four seasons with the Rangers, while hitting .274/.359/.432 with 78 homers in 2576 plate appearances.

Between his 123 wRC+ over those four seasons and increasingly strong defensive metrics, Lowe has been worth 10.6 fWAR during his Rangers tenure.  It isn’t superstar production and the left-handed hitting Lowe has naturally been more consistent against right-handed pitching, but he has at worst been a steady regular, with hints of a higher ceiling of production.  Lowe hit .302/.358/.492 with 27 homers over 645 PA in 2022, though a .363 BABIP may have helped contribute to that career year.

Despite Lowe’s very solid play, there had been some whispers that the Rangers could be looking to clear some room at first base.  The recently-acquired Jake Burger figures to get a good chunk of the first base at-bats now that Lowe is off the roster, with Josh Smith, Justin Foscue, or Ezequiel Duran also in the running for playing time depending on how the Rangers opt to arrange their infield.  Josh Jung is slated to be the regular third baseman but Burger, Smith, or Duran could also be used at the hot corner based on matchups.

Lowe’s increasing arbitration price tag was also surely a factor in the Rangers’ decision.  Now entering his second arb-eligible year, Lowe was projected to earn $10.7MM for the 2025 season.  It is hardly an ungainly sum for a Gold Glove-winning first baseman with Lowe’s offensive production, but since Lowe turns 30 in July, Texas might’ve been considering the longer-term question of whether or not Lowe was a candidate for a contract extension.

Today’s trade answers that question, and gaining more flexibility at a premium position allows the Rangers to both see what they have in internal options, or to potentially keep first base open for a bigger free agent or trade target down the road.  Or, such a bat could still come this offseason, as Texas now has an even greater need for left-handed hitting depth after dealing Lowe.

It was no secret that the Nationals were looking to upgrade at first base this winter, as such free agents as Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt were on Washington’s radar.  Walker signed with the Astros and Goldschmidt joined the Yankees just within the last week, which quite possibly prompted the Nats to complete this trade as the first-base market continues to quickly thin out.

The Lowe deal is the clearest sign yet that the Nationals are ready to end their rebuild after five straight losing seasons.  The Nats’ youth movement has led to CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Luis Garcia Jr. becoming parts of the everyday lineup, but plenty more offensive help was still required for a team that finished near the back of the pack in several major offensive categories.

In adding Lowe, the Nationals now have a player still in his prime who can bring a veteran voice and championship experience to the clubhouse, in addition to what Lowe can provide on the field.  There is even a slightly hometown-hero aspect to the trade, as Lowe was born a few hours’ down the road from D.C. in Norfolk, Virginia.

The Nats have plenty of payroll space available, so Lowe’s salaries aren’t any kind of concern for the team.  Addressing first base by trading for Lowe instead of, say, spending much more in salary and draft capital to sign a Walker or a Pete Alonso allows president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo to still keep his financial powder dry for other big moves this winter or (perhaps more likely) next offseason or potentially at the trade deadline.  Rizzo and team ownership might prefer to give it one more season to see what they really have in their young core before really putting the pedal down in a full-fledged run towards contention.  In this scenario, Lowe is already under control if 2026 is really the Nationals “go for it” kind of year.

Garcia’s role in the deal shouldn’t be overlooked, as the Nationals now have an even greater need for relief pitching after dealing away a southpaw who showed plenty of promise in his first two Major League seasons.  Washington claimed Garcia off waivers from the Marlins in August 2023, and the lefty has a 4.03 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 46.6% grounder rate, and 7.4% walk rate over 91 2/3 career relief innings.

Fifty-nine and two-thirds of those frames came last season, as Garcia posted a misleading 4.22 ERA that was inflated by some bad luck.  Garcia had a .329 BABIP and a very low 57.2% strand rate, and his 2.71 SIERA is perhaps a better reflection of just how solid Garcia’s performance was in 2024.  The left-hander doesn’t bring much in the way of velocity, but his fastball is used primarily to set up his excellent changeup, which was quietly one of the more effective changeups thrown by any pitcher in baseball.

With a swath of above-average Statcast metrics, Garcia will provide a huge boost to the Texas bullpen if he can replicate those numbers on his new club.  Garcia joins Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner as recent new additions to a relief corps that was destined to undergo an overhaul with Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc, and David Robertson all entering free agency.  Since this trio is still unsigned, the Rangers could seek out reunions with any of their own free agents, but naturally it makes sense to fortify the pen with other longer-term arms like Garcia.  The left-hander turns 29 in June but is arb-controlled through the 2029 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

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Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

Rangers Sign Hoby Milner

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The Rangers announced the signing of lefty reliever Hoby Milner to a one-year contract. Texas designated former top prospect Owen White for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Milner, a client of MVP Sports Group, is reportedly guaranteed $2.5MM. He can earn another $500K in incentives — $100K each for reaching 35 and 45 appearances, followed by $150K bonuses at 55 and 65 games.

Milner is a Dallas native who attended the University of Texas. The former Longhorn began his career with the Phillies, who selected him in the seventh round of the 2012 draft. Milner had brief MLB stints with the Phillies, Rays and Angels before finding his way to Milwaukee on a minor league contract after the 2020 season.

The low-slot southpaw had a solid four years with the Brew Crew. He posted interesting strikeout and walk numbers in 2021, so the Brewers retained him despite a 5.40 earned run average. That was a wise call, as Milner was a key piece of Craig Counsell’s bullpen between 2022-23. He combined for a 2.79 ERA across 129 innings over that stretch. Only 30 relievers around the league logged a heavier workload. Milner fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 5.3% rate. His arm angle flummoxed left-handed hitters, who managed a .199/.259/.284 line across 223 plate appearances.

Milner’s results regressed in 2024. He was tagged for a 4.73 ERA while lefties had a markedly improved .286/.290/.467 slash over 109 trips to the plate. Yet Milner ran an impressive 27:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while he held the platoon advantage.

His peripherals more broadly remained strong. He punched out nearly 24% of batters faced and kept the ball on the ground more than half the time that opponents made contact. He tied his career high with 64 2/3 innings. The ERA jump was a result of a huge spike in opposing hitters’ average on balls in play, as well as a significant drop in the number of runners Milner left on base.

The Brewers nevertheless decided to move on instead of tendering him an arbitration contract at a projected $2.7MM salary. That worked out reasonably well for Milner, who finds a guaranteed contract at nearly the same rate with his hometown team for his age-34 season. It’s the second bullpen pickup for the Rangers in as many weeks. They added Jacob Webb, who had somewhat surprisingly been non-tendered by the Orioles, on a $1.25MM pact. GM Chris Young and his staff need to add multiple arms to a ’pen that could lose each of Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc and José Ureña to free agency. They’ll start with a pair of affordable veterans who can work in the middle innings.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report Milner was signing with Texas on a one-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the $2.5MM guarantee. The Associated Press reported the incentive structure.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Rangers Designate Owen White For Assignment

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The Rangers officially announced their signing of left-hander Hoby Milner today, which was reported earlier this week. Right-hander Owen White has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

White, 25, was one of the top pitching prospects in the league as of two years ago but his results have tailed off significantly since then. A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, White’s professional debut was delayed by 2019 Tommy John surgery and then the pandemic taking out the minor leagues in 2020. He quickly made up for lost time once he got back on the mound. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 115 2/3 innings in the minors with a 3.42 earned run average. He struck out 34.1% of batters faced while giving out walks just 7.5% of the time.

That strong performance made him a consensus top 100 prospect going into 2023. But as alluded to earlier, he’s been hit around badly since then. He has allowed 13 earned runs in his first seven big league innings, meaning he has an unsightly 16.71 ERA at the moment.

That’s obviously a tiny sample size but the results in the minors have been bad as well. White has thrown 151 1/3 innings for Triple-A Round Rock over the past two years with a 5.41 ERA. The Express play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but his 17.4% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate for that club have both been subpar.

The Rangers tried moving White to a relief role midway through the most recent season, with some encouragement there. He tossed 18 innings over this final 13 Triple-A appearances with a 5.50 ERA. His 25.6% strikeout rate was a nice jump, but he was still giving out free passes at a high clip of 12.8%.

White is down to just one more option year at this point, so 2025 was shaping up to be a make-or-break sort of season. But with his declining numbers and a move to the bullpen, his prospect shine has worn off enough that he is being bumped off the roster today.

DFA limbo normally last one week, though recent years have seen that clock paused between Christmas and New Year’s Day. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later.

That gives the Rangers some time to call around and see if there’s any trade interest for White. Obviously, the recent results have tamped down his value, but some club might take a shot based on his past prospect pedigree. With one option year remaining, he could be stashed in the minors by a club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot.

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