MLBTR Chats

Steve Adams

• Not the first Tigers fan I’ve seen suggest this, but I couldn’t disagree more with trading Skubal. This is their window to win a World Series. If he walks and you “only” get a draft pick next winter, so be it, but Skubal is one of the two best pitchers in the game. Trading him in the midst of a win-now window because you want to make sure the 2028 team is better for it … I don’t see it. At least not for the Tigers. If you’re the Rays or Brewers and know you’re never going to get anything close to even a league-average payroll from ownership, perhaps that’s another story, but that’s not the case for Detroit.

Baltimore Fan

• What is Adley’s future? Could he be traded this offseason? To where?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it’s completely off the table, but I also don’t think they’ll shop him or anything. With Basallo up/extended and Adley down to two years of club control, there’ll be teams calling, however, and Elias is going to listen since that’s his job.Padres, Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Astros, Cubs, Reds, Phillies all make varying degrees of sense as teams that could look into the possibility

“Cracker” Ray Schalk

• Chisox catcher in 2026 will be…………

Steve Adams

• I imagine they’ll just split reps between Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero, probably mixing in some DH and 1B work at times. Korey Lee could factor in as a third catcher since he’ll be out of options, but they could also just trade him to a team looking for a cheap option behind the plate.

Chris

• What do you think Ben Rice’s role is next year? 1B only, lead C, backup C? Its tricky bc he needs a righty caddy and their other primary C is a lefty too.

Steve Adams

• I’d say it’s likelier that Rice’s role hinges on what other opportunities present themselves this winter than it is that they have a set role for Rice that’ll drive their offseason pursuits. Ultimately, he’ll probably see time at both spots and mix in at DH, since you pretty much have to bake in some downtime for Stanton to any expectations/projections.

Tommy

• What do you think the Orioles need to do for the rotation in the offseason? I could see Elias talking himself into a staring group of Bradish, Rogers, GRod, Kremer, Wells with Povich/Saurez/Young behind them. But there’s injury concerns galore. Does an ace complete the work or do they need multiple additions? Who do you think is reasonably available to improve them?

Steve Adams

• I don’t see how they can just run it back with this group. They’ve been pretty timid in adding to the rotation under Elias, with the exception of the Corbin Burnes acquisition — and even that was just for one year.They’ll have major questions on the workloads for Bradish, Rodriguez and Wells. Povich/Young haven’t proven anything. Rogers is a free agent after 2026. Kremer after 2027.They should be looking to add multiple arms, at least one of whom can be controlled multiple seasons. Could be via trade or free agency, but you can’t carry that group into 2026 and hope for better results, and this past offseason’s barrage of low-upside one-year deals proved to be a notable misstep that played a big role in sinking their season.

Carlos Mendoza

• Am I in over my head? Will I be back next season?

Steve Adams

• He’s signed through next year with a 2027 option. I don’t really think this is a question, but I guess Mets fans have been frustrated enough that David Stearns felt it necessary to publicly state this morning that Mendoza will be back… I saw his quote and thought, “Well… yeah.”

Free Agency

• Who’s giving up a draft pick to sign Gallen, Cease, King, Woodruff, Mahle?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Mahle gets a QO, and if he does, I would imagine he accepts it. The others are all pretty clear cases to reject QOs, for me. I suppose maybe Gallen would consider it, but he’s on a nice run right now and I think he’ll get the two-year/opt-out treatment at least.

RookTaker23

• How much do home/road splits impact FA offers? Cody Bellinger (predictably) has some extreme ones.

Steve Adams

• I doubt Bellinger’s home/road splits are going to be a prominent factor in his free agency. Most players hit better at home, even if they don’t necessarily play in a hitters’ paradise. Bellinger’s career-long home/road splits skew heavily toward his home performance, for instance, and he’s only spent four-plus months with Yankee Stadium’s short porch.

Cool Mama Bell

• What does a long-term extension of Winn look like? 10 years, $300M?

Steve Adams

• Nowhere close to that. He still has one pre-arb year where he’ll make basically the league minimum. Even if you project him to make $30MM in arbitration (just using an arbitrary round number), you’d be talking six free agent years at around $270MM, or $45MM per year. No way he’s getting that.Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only position player in this service bracket to ever clear $300MM, and he did it over 14 years (and with a much better offensive profile than Winn has put together). I doubt Winn would get even $150MM, which isn’t to disrespect him as a player, but here are the top three extensions for 2+ years of service position players:Tatis: 14 years, $340MM
  Witt Jr.: 11 years, $288.7MM
  Yordan Alvarez: 6 years, $115MM

  (All of which you can quickly look up in our handy Contract Tracker)

Rick Camp

• Think Volpe might be available next season and if so would the Braves be interested?

Steve Adams

• I do think there will be some talk about the Yankees looking for a better option at shortstop, and I have wondered whether Volpe is someone the Braves would look into, yeah.

Richard

• Would 250 over 7 with a player opt out after 3 years be about right for Bichette? Adds a lot of risk for the team but gives him a chance to hit the market one last time in his career.

Steve Adams

• I think that’s steep, despite the strong rebound. I like Bichette and all, but him being a year younger than Willy Adames doesn’t justify him shattering Adames’ $182MM by $68MM. I have him somewhere around $175-200MM. We’ll see how he finishes.

Reds GM

• It seems this year that there are a lot more players who may qualify for Super 2 and reach arbitration a year early. Does everyone who reaches the cutoff and has 86 days of service time qualify? Or is there a limit on how many players can qualify for Super 2 every year?

Steve Adams

• The Reds have several of those guys (McLain, Elly, Abbott, Brandon Williamson). But it seems like there’s some fundamental misunderstanding of what the cutoff is. Super Two status is given to the top 22% of players (in terms of total service time) between two and three years of MLB service. By definition, only 22% of all players between two and three years of service can be Super 2 newcomers.The number could vary year to year, simply because the volume of players between 2 and 3 years of service changes somewhat each season, but on a rate basis, it’ll always be the same proportion of the service class.Cincinnati just happens to have quite a few guys in that boat this year, so perhaps it seems to you like there are more.
• For what it’s worth, EDLC and Abbott will probably be right around the bubble.
• McLain and Williamson are locks, though Williamson isn’t going to get a salary of note after missing the season due to injury. Probably like $800K. If he’s tendered.

Champdo

• Does Riley Greene’s rising k rate and plummeting walk rate limit the amount of money he’ll get in an extension or in FA

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it matters a ton just yet. He’s traded out some extra K’s for the best power output of his career, both in terms of volume and on a rate basis.I wouldn’t want to see the strikeouts climb any higher, though, and I’d already like to see some of the walks creep back in. He’s clearly working with a bit of a different approach this year, swinging far more often than at any point in the past. If he can maintain some of the power gains and restore a bit of his former selectivity, there could be a sweet spot where he really dials in.
• Whatever concerns the less-exciting plate discipline profile create would also be offset by him inching closer to free agency (and topping 30 homers). He’d probably clear $100MM on an extension if they pursue it.

Free Agency

• How robust is Gleyber Torres’ market going to be? I’m a little surprised not see him on the monthly power rankings of impending free agents, given his youth and performance

Steve Adams

• I had him 14th and wrote him up on the Power Rankings follow-up (Nos. 11-15) we did for subscribers.Broadly speaking, the market doesn’t pay pure second basemen. Marcus Semien is the only one who’s gotten the huge payday, and he did it coming off a 6-WAR, 45-homer season with plus defense and baserunning (and from a Rangers team that was willing to splash around some silly money).Torres has had a nice year, but he’s been a more good than great hitter with minimal defensive/baserunning value. To me, he feels like someone who’ll come in comfortably under $100MM, age notwithstanding.

Gashouse Gorilla

• I’m interesting in the decision on Nathaniel Lowe. I realize he was having a poor year, but it seems strange with his past history he was just let go.  Nationals have a reason other than (some) money?

Steve Adams

• They’d have non-tendered him in the offseason. No one was going to give up a prospect of any value to acquire one year of Lowe when he’d have gotten a raise north of $12MM. They cut him loose to open at-bats for younger players and probably held out a small bit of hope that maybe someone would claim the contract, which they unsurprisingly did not.

Charleston Chew

• Will Cal be MVP?

Steve Adams

• 76% of our readers now think so!
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/american-league-mvp-cal-raleigh…
• I tend to agree, though it’s hardly a sure thing just yet.

King Tuck

• O/U 75% chance the Cubs re-sign Tucker? If they do would a Cody Bellinger contract be possible? 3-4 years with an opt out after 2 and 3 years. 150mil over 4 years. 37.5 mil aav is a hefty pay raise from this year.

Steve Adams

• Way under on the percentage the Cubs re-sign him, and no way he’s taking a three- or four-year deal.

$ for a question?

• Only way a question can be fielded is if I pay a subscription?……..poor people like baseball too!

Steve Adams

• This chat is hosted on third-party software. I have no idea who in here is a subscriber or not. But there are 448 people participating/asking questions, and that constitutes a (very) lightly attended chat. Which is par for the course this time of year, as opposed to the deadline or offseason.

anxious jays fan

• whats our plan if bichette walks? start clement full time? kick gimenez over?

Steve Adams

• Gimenez to shortstop and go outside the organization at 2B, I would think.But I thought the Guardians should’ve moved Gimenez to SS years ago and they chose not to. So we shall see. I think the Jays will make a genuine effort to re-sign Bichette, too, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that he leaves.

Pete

• Now that a little more time has passed, does the White Sox handling of the Louis Robert situation make any more sense to you?

Steve Adams

• Robert could stay healthy and hit .300/.375/.530 from the deadline on, and I would still say it was a risk I wouldn’t have taken, even if it pans out perfectly like that.
• I understood the risk they were taking, I just didn’t agree with it and still don’t. But teams and players take risks all the time where I say “Woof, I don’t like that at all” and it still works out. Part of the game/business.

BTinVT

• Can you see Gorman turning into Muncy? Thank you

Steve Adams

• Gorman doesn’t walk like Muncy, and Muncy has never struck out as much as Gorman. I guess he could be a poor man’s version of Muncy, but I don’t think he has that same sort of offensive ceiling as Muncy

PhilsPhansince1965

• Should we unload either Castellanos or Taijuan over the winter to save some $$?

Steve Adams

• Far easier said than done. No one’s going to take much (any?) of Castellanos’ contract. I guess maybe you could pay Walker down to like $5-8MM and dump him for little to no return.

Even year

• What will need to happen for the Giants to contend in 26?

Steve Adams

• If they add one more legitimate bat, get Devers healthy, and bring in some rotation support for Webb/Ray, I don’t think it’s far-fetched that they contend. I’d like to see two bats (one in RF, one at 2B), but you can’t just expect them to go sign Tucker, Gleyber, Cease and a couple relievers, so trying to traffic somewhat in reality here.

rusty

• Will Jakob Marsee go 20/20 in ’26?

Steve Adams

• At this rate he might do it in 2025!
• Kidding, obviously. I think it’s a pretty easy yes on the steals. Bit more skeptical on the power, but it’s not outside the realm of plausibility.

Guest

• Do you see any big ticket free agents heading to San Francisco in the near future?

Steve Adams

• They’re among the more obvious suitors for Kyle Tucker and Gleyber Torres, sure. I imagine Bichette is going to state early on that he’ll play any position (a la Story and Adames) to increase his market viability as well, even if he wants to stay at shortstop. Giants pursuing him as a 2B option wouldn’t surprise me.
• Ok, I’ve got to wrap up for the week.I’m on X @Adams_Steve or Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions. If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, two weekly subscriber-only chats (one with me, one with Anthony) where your odds of getting a question answered are much higher, direct Q&A opportunities with Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker, our GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more.Have a great week, everyone!

Guarded Indian

• When a player is released to pursue an opportunity overseas, does that generally happen because the players agent is looking for better financial opportunities for their client or is it because the foreign team reaches out?  I’m trying to figure out how a AAAA player is identified as a good fit for a Korean baseball team etc.

Steve Adams

• KBO and NPB teams have scouts watching MLB and MiLB games. They’ll identify guys they like, get in touch with the agent, and if there’s reciprocal interest you can then pull in the player’s current organization and discuss some kind of release fee.By the time a player is getting released to pursue a foreign opportunity, the contract and any release fee have typically already been sorted out.

Jerry Dipoto

• Am I going to re-sign Josh Naylor to be my 1B next year? Or is there a different external options I should be looking at? I don’t see the player in house.

Steve Adams

• I lean toward no. Mitch Garver is the only free agent position player Dipoto has signed to a multi-year deal since taking over the Mariners a decade ago.

TennesseeMG

• Do you think Kyle Tucker’s monster slump will have a major impact, moderate impact or little to no impact on the deal he gets in free agency?

Steve Adams

• Little to none, provided it’s not due to an injury or anything. We have like 5 years of telling us this guy’s an amazing hitter… that’s not going to get overshadowed by a few weeks of struggles. I mean, if he hits like .150/.225/.250 down the stretch, maybe it starts to impact, but as of right now, it’s not a factor really.

Steve Cohen

• Who do you think wins the MVP in each league?

Steve Adams

• Ohtani in the NL, and I’ve probably flipped to Raleigh in the AL. I could go either way at this moment, but it increasingly seems like Judge is going to be limited or a total nonfactor on defense for the rest of the season, and he’s in a pretty rough stretch at the plate which seems attributable to the injury.

Jose Alvarado

• I’m coming off the restricted list today… My contract is done at the end of 2025…  but if I perform down the stretch similar to what I did before my PED suspension – do you think the Phillies will try to re-sign me? Or did a door close in Philly after I screwed up.

Steve Adams

• The Phillies have a $9MM club option that comes with a $500K buyout. A net $8.5MM option is a pretty easy call for them on Alvarado. He’ll be back.

Effin Eflin

• Does Zach Eflin get a QO from the Orioles this off season?

Steve Adams

• Had he been healthy, yeah — but with the lat/back injuries and now back surgery clouding some of his offseason, no. The O’s aren’t risking around $22MM on day one of the offseason when he’ll only be a couple months into the rehab process.

Jays in 43 parks

• Bassitt is having a decent season. Would a 2 yr ext at same AAV be smart for the Jays. Would Bassitt accept?

Steve Adams

• I think a two-year term is pretty reasonable — he’s not going to get more than that for ages 37 and 38 — but the $21MM AAV feels a little steep to me. Bassitt is still effective, and he’s consistent, but his velo is down more than a mile per hour from last year and nearly two miles per hour from the point at which he signed the contract. I don’t think teams are going to excited about $20MM+ for a 37-year-old who’s sitting 91 mph with his heater. I’d probably guess like $15-16MM per year over two.

Walter

• How much longer before the Clase and Ortiz situation is resolved?

Steve Adams

• They’re on leave through Aug. 31, and it’ll probably extend beyond that if this is anything like prior instances of players being placed on administrative leave.

PhilsPhansince1965

• Harrison Bader is a hard one for me to forecast – love the CF defense even while he is now at an age that it can decline rapidly. His bat has never been a steady plus however, but perhaps he can be league average in center. What range of contract offers might he get this winter?

Steve Adams

• I think he’s done enough to get a multi-year deal. He’ll be 32, but you can bank on the defense being good and there have been some real offensive gains. Something like two years and $22MM?

Brew Crewzing

• NL Cy Young?  Skenes is most dominant but has a losing record, Wheeler is out for awhile.  Who can sneak in?  (Freddy Peralta? If he can reach 20 wins.)

Steve Adams

• The record is irrelevant. It’ll be Skenes, barring some late injury or collapse, and deservedly so. It’s not his fault the team around him is awful.

John

• Is Trevor Rogers a true 1? Does he finish top 5 cy young this year?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think he’ll have the workload to finish top 5, and I don’t buy him as an ace, no. He’s obviously improved over last year, but it’s an average strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate, good command … and huge assists from a .214 BABIP and 85% strand rate, neither of which is sustainable over a lengthy period.I loved Rogers back in ’21, but he had an extra 1.5 mph on his heater then, several extra percentage points in his swinging-strike rate and was giving up less contact on pitches in the zone.

  This version of him sure looks like a good mid-rotation guy to me, but I don’t buy into the results being THIS good.

Oz

• There were indications that the Braves would use Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin next year as their DH/catcher tandem.  In view of Sean Murphy’s struggles, is it possible that they might re-sign Marcell Ozuna to a 1-year deal, acquire a back-up catcher, and trade Murphy to fill another team need?

Steve Adams

• I do think there’s a chance that they end up trading Murphy, but I’d be surprised to see Ozuna back with how much he’s struggled since June.

Tom Kelly’s blues

• Do the Twins build around the core of Keashal, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Martin and Larnach along with Buxton and Jeffers?

Steve Adams

• I wouldn’t call all of them core pieces. Keaschall and Buxton, yes. Lee will get every chance to prove he can be that, and I can’t imagine them selling low on Royce Lewis. Wallner, Martin and especially Larnach feel much less like core pieces to me. I think Larnach is probably non-tendered or traded early in the offseason. Jeffers just has one year of club control left as well, making him a pretty viable offseason trade candidate.

Mike

• why havent I heard anything about Merrill Kelly receiving a QO? He should get one right?

Steve Adams

• He can’t receive one because he was traded midseason.
• If the D-backs had kept him, yeah, he’d have gotten one.

John

• this would’ve sounded crazy a couple years ago, but do the rangers non tender Josh Jung or still too early?

Steve Adams

• They won’t non-tender him. He’s only going into his first arb year. But I wouldn’t be shocked with a trade, either. I imagine there are going to be sweeping changes to that lineup this offseason.

2023 Angels

• If the Red Sox make the playoffs, is Nathaniel Lowe eligible for their post-season roster? Would this also be true if he had been claimed off waivers – i.e. if Boston had assumed his remaining contract?  Does this change for waived players added after August?

Steve Adams

• As long as a player is in the organization — not even on the 40-man roster — before Sept. 1, he can be eligible for the postseason. If that player isn’t on the 40 as of 9/1, they’d need to petition the league to have him replace an injured player, but teams do that every year.
• Anyone signed/claimed Sept. 1 or later is ineligible.

Luis Robert Jr

• What sort of contract offer can I expect this offseason?

Steve Adams

• You can expect the White Sox to pick up your $20MM option, which I wouldn’t do — I’d have traded him — but they wouldn’t have held him just to decline the option.

Kyle

• Nate Lowe has a 1.000 OPS so far with Boston, how long can he continue this level of production?

Steve Adams

• Forever.

WT

• Do you see the Reds this winter signing Tyler Stephenson to an extension? He only has 1 year of control after this season. Or will the Reds try to flip him this winter and make Jose Trevino their starter given Jose is locked up for several years? Catching depth in the Reds system seems  light if they trade him or let him walk off after 2026.

Steve Adams

• He’s been below-average at the plate (albeit average relative to his position) and would be getting a raise north of $7MM probably. I don’t know that he’s a non-tender candidate, but I could see him traded.Trevino gives them an elite, affordable glove to start back there until Alfredo Duno is ready for a look in a couple years. And while the system is lacking volume in terms of catching prospects, Duno is one of the better catching prospects in the sport.

Zeke haydn

• Who will be the first pirate traded after the season has ended?Skenes? Or Cruz?

Steve Adams

• Neither? But definitely not Skenes. Either Mitch Keller or Dennis Santana seems like they’d have a good chance to go, though.

Mike T

• Will Nick Allen be looking for a new team after this year? Will he even still be in the majors?

Steve Adams

• He’s such a good defender that someone will have him on a roster on Opening Day, but the Braves should 100% be looking for shortstop upgrades, with Allen either moving to a bench role or being traded.

Playing Nats GM

• Between the 5 OFs on the MLB roster and a few others in the pipeline, trading from that group to fill another need makes sense for Washington. Is that something you could see the Nationals doing this winter?

Steve Adams

• Sure. They’re not going to move Wood or Crews, but any of Young, Hassell or Lile seems plausible.

Ryan

• Eovaldi = 2025 AL Cy Young winner?

Steve Adams

• He’s going to come in 30 or so innings behind Skubal, Crochet and Hunter Brown. I don’t think he’s going to have the innings. But I suppose if he can somehow sustain a 1.75 ERA or even improve upon it, at a certain point the workload gap will take a backseat to the rate stats. I don’t know that anyone can really expect to sustain results this good, though, and I wouldn’t say we’ve reached the point yet where the gap can be justifiably overlooked.

Kyle

• Does Bichette find someone to pay him like a SS this offseason, or do teams see him more as a guy who needs to move to 2B/3B and pay him accordingly?

Steve Adams

• I think he’ll sign as a shortstop but probably move to one of those other spots a few years into a deal. Jays, Tigers, Braves are the obvious potential landing spots (not that the Braves typically spend to that extent in free agency). Detroit has McGonigle coming, but he’s still only 20 and as said, Bichette could move to another spot in a few years.But, much like Willy Adames last winter, I think it’d be beneficial to get it out there early in the winter that he’s willing to play other positions, even if the goal is to sign somewhere that he can continue as a shortstop for a few years.

Alex Bregman

• Can I top 40 MM AAV again but on a longer deal?

Steve Adams

• No, but he’ll crush the $80MM he has left. And you can argue he doesn’t really even have a $40MM AAV right now anyway, once you factor in deferrals.

Tom Kelly

• Will Emmanuel Rodriguez be starting in lf for Twins next year?

Steve Adams

• I can see him up at some point, maybe even early in the season, but the K’s are a huge concern as is the durability (or lack thereof)

Moneyball

• Who would you dangle in trades for pitching from the position player logjam forming on the A’s and which team(s) do you think would line up well as potential trade partners?

Steve Adams

• Bleday and Soderstrom feel like the most straightforward calls to me, though I think you can keep functioning with Soderstrom, Kurtz and Rooker all on the same roster. Soderstrom has handled the outfield move just fine. Colby Thomas would get some interest if the A’s are envisioning Soderstrom, Clarke and Butler as the long-term outfield trio.I imagine they’ll have teams trying to pry Langeliers away, and if someone offers enough pitching, I think you have to be open to it. Three years of control remaining, price tag is going to skyrocket in arb, etc.

Ranger Danger

• Will Philly make a QO to Suarez?

Steve Adams

• Yup

The Mick

• What years/$ will it take to sign Bellinger next season?

Steve Adams

• Five years in the $25MM per year range?

Kyle

• Any chance King exercises his option for next year and stays in SD, given the amount of time he’s doesn’t on the IL with health issues the year?

Steve Adams

• No. Even with the injuries, he could decline and expect a much better one-year deal than the net $11.25MM. He gets the $3.75MM buyout regardless.

Jeremy

• Contract that gets Bregman resigned next year?  5 years/150m?

Steve Adams

• I’ll take the over.

Bud Man, Cub Fan

• Cubbies have to be kicking themselves for not trading one of Cassie or Alcantara for another starter, right?

Steve Adams

• Cubs’ and Tigers’ passive deadlines still surprise me.

MonarchsAllDay

• Can the Royals at least make things interesting over the next month for that final playoff spot, however unlikely?

Steve Adams

• They’re only 3.5 out, so sure, I can see them kind of hanging around. But the rest of their schedule is pretty rough. They have a stretch coming up where they play the Tigers six times in nine games, and they still have series against the Phillies, Mariners and Blue Jays.So… I don’t expect it, but they’re close enough already that it’s not unthinkable.

Kyle

• Assuming Giolito passes the 140 innings and declines the option, does it make sense for Boston to give him a QO?

Steve Adams

• It does. If he accepted, that’d be a fine price for him on a one-year deal, but I think he’d be very likely to decline. When you’ve got Jameson Taillon, Eduardo Rodriguez and Taijuan Walker signing in the $68-80MM range, I don’t see why Giolito can’t get into that range.

Dandy the mascot

• Are Dominguez and Stanton the worst defensive corner OFs for a playoff bound team this century?

Steve Adams

• Not great, but the Phillies got there with Schwarber and Castellanos playing OF regularly in 2022.

Schwarberr

• How scary are the 2026 Reds if they sign Schwarber given their Rotation.

Steve Adams

• I’ll believe they sign Schwarber when I see it. I know he’s from there and there was the recent piece in The Athletic about the idea of him playing at GABP, but I’ve come around on the idea of him signing a precedent-setting deal for someone of his age and lack of defensive versatility, and I don’t see Cincinnati topping $100MM to sign him.

Brian S

• Any chance my White Sox have any chance of signing Murakami?

Steve Adams

• I’d be surprised, as they haven’t really been active in the NPB market since………… Tadahito Iguchi? Am I missing anyone?Also, they’ve never signed a player for more than $75MM (which is still insane to think about for a team from Chicago … or really, for any team in MLB at this point).

  Hard to say what Murakami’s earning power will be with the strikeouts, struggles against velocity and a half season lost to injury, but a 25-year-old with 80 raw power is going to get interest. He’s also demolishing the ball since he came off the injured list a couple weeks ago (albeit while still striking out in about a third of his plate appearances).

Kyle

• Chances Cease and/or King sign short term high AAV deals with opt outs (a la Bregman) to hopefully have a bounce back year and hit free agency again next year?

Steve Adams

• I can see it with either, sure.

Mike Elias

• Do I trade Adley to the Mariners this offseason for much needed pitching?

Steve Adams

• Think Seattle’s pretty good at catcher. They have a young guy back there who’s having an OK season. Can’t recall his name, but he’s one to watch for in the years ahead. 🙂

CHISOX FAN

• Will Braden Montgomery be given a chance to make the team next year?

Steve Adams

• I’d be surprised if he makes the club out of camp. He still only has 15-20 games in AA and has struck out a lot there. But sometime next summer, sure.
• Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve or Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, a weekly subscriber-only chat with Anthony (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker, our GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more.

  Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!

Rockies Fans

• It appears on paper we’re beginning to see a core group developing in Colorado: Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar, Jordan Beck, Warming Bernabel, Kyle Karros, and Mickey Moniak.

Rockies future

• Are we beginning to see a young core develop in Colorado?

Mark P

• The Rockies have quietly played some respectable baseball over the last month or so, giving them a chance of avoiding the single-season loss record. I wouldn’t say the team is exactly on the right track since the organizational structure will always hold the Rockies back, but there are a few slivers of hope for the future

Blue Jays fan

• would you consider giving Berrios a rest with an IL stint now that Bieber is ready to pitch?

Mark P

• As Billy Eppler could tell you, teams can’t just put a guy on the IL for non-specific injury reasons.  I suspect that when Bieber is ready, the Jays will just go to a six-man rotation to give everyone extra rest days.
• Keep in mind that these plans can always turn on a dime.  The Phillies thought they had a six-man rotation all lined up just over 24 hours ago, before the news broke about Wheeler

Dub

• Mark: Good evening. Is Jacob Marsee a present and future fixture in the Marlins outfit rls?

Mark P

• Based on speed and defense alone, it’s looking this way.  The book on Marsee was whether he can hit enough to stick as a regular outfielder, and the early returns have been obviously incredible.
• Nobody should go crazy over an early-career hot streak, since Marsee “probably” isn’t the next Willie Mays.  But he’s absolutely doing enough to win himself a job for the foreseeable future

Sad Reds Fan

• Tell me why I shouldn’t be completely disheartened by our performance this weekend. Should’ve swept the Brewers, instead looked like we never played baseball before

Mark P

• Winning one game against the hottest team in baseball is no mean feat.  I think the Reds just caught the wrong team at the wrong time, hence the series loss.

A’s

• The A’s couldn’t fix Cusick either as a starter or reliever.  Why would they claim his former college teammate Shuster who was also a Braves #1 pick the year before ?  Shuster has better control, but doesn’t throw hard enough so what are they thinking ?.

Mark P

• It costs the Athletics almost literally nothing to claim Shuster and take a look at him.  For a rebuilding team in need of pitching, why not take a flier on a guy and see if you can find a fix?

Mark

• Red Sox will need another higher end starter in the off season. Of Gore, Ryan and Alcantara who do you think makes the most sense for them if they can swing a deal?

Mark P

• The Sox and Twins had some talks about Ryan already, with reports indicating that the two sides weren’t particularly close on a deal.  However, it could be that those talks laid some groundwork, and perhaps at least gave both sides some idea of what the other wants in such a deal.  The Twins were reportedly prioritizing MLB-ready talent in trades, and while Boston wasn’t willing to make such a move at the deadline, their perspective might be changed during the winter.

Angel Fan

• Do you think Nolan Schanuel has a future ceiling of a Mark Grace like career?

Mark P

• I’m going to say no, not out of disrespect to Schanuel but more out of respect to Grace’s career.  Grace was a terrific player for a long time, and it would be a huge success for Schanuel and the Angels if he can get even in the ballpark of a Grace-esque career

McGonigle ETA?

• When do you think Kevin McGonigle will get to DET and why?

Mark P

• It would be quite surprising if he isn’t in the big leagues before 2026 is over

Redsfan

• Do you think the Reds pass the Mets and make the WC?

Mark P

• The two teams have a three-game series in Cincinnati in September and looms large.  The Reds are up 2-1 so far this season for tiebreaker purposes.

  I think the Reds haven’t been fully able to capitalize on the Mets’ slide to this point, yet they have more momentum than New York at this point.  On paper, the Mets should be able to get it together, but the chalk hasn’t amounted to anything for them over the last several weeks.  Frankly, I wouldn’t even count out teams like the Cardinals, Giants, or D’Backs from making a late run just yet.

• Also, every Mets has undoubtedly noticed that the Braves have quietly been red-hot over the last week

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo

• Dylan Cease has had a nightmare platform year. Does he sign a one-year pillow contract with a team that’s good at fixing pitchers? Do you think he can get a second-year player option?

Mark P

• This looks like the classic case of a Scott Boras short-term contract with multiple opt-outs.  Cease’s secondary metrics are better than his ERA indicates, but you’re right that he isn’t exactly heading into free agency on a high note, unless he really turns it on in September.

No NY baseball?

• How likely is it both NY teams are sitting at home in October?

Mark P

• Will both New York teams make the playoffs?

  ---

  Both make (32.6% | 199 votes)

  Both miss (26.8% | 164 votes)

  Yankees make, Mets miss (24.4% | 149 votes)

  Mets make, Yankees miss (16.0% | 98 votes)

  ---

  Total Votes: 610

Bosox Fan 1

• Does time on the IL count as Major League service tim

Mark P

• Yes

Golfer

• Will the return of the injured Astros be enough to keep them in the playoffs?

Mark P

• My guess is that Houston makes it, since they’ve done a terrific job of at least treading water with so many key players missing

bobthebuilder

• Mike Elias has led the Orioles to 3 winning seasons in a row for the 1st time since the 70’s. I think his leash has to be longer than this offseason. Are the cries to fire him overblown or are you getting into that camp?

Mark P

• Some serious questions need to be asked about the Orioles’ roster-building, but overall, I lean more towards 2025 being a “year from hell” than a sign that this team is going to spiral back into long-term irrelevance.

  My guess is that Elias has earned more time from ownership, but keep in mind that Rubenstein is still something of a wild card.  Maybe he has a mind to hire his own GM to see what a fresh voice can do with all of the talent within the organization.

Phree Phallin’

• put aside the potential seriousness of the situation; big picture we all want wheeler just to get healthy. But purely baseball, if he’s out for an extended period or the rest of the yr, does that cost the Phils making the playoffs with their inconsistent offense?

Mark P

• Philly is a virtual lock to make the playoffs, but losing Wheeler obviously is a huge blow to their chances of actually winning a championship.

Boys in Blue

• Does the Dodgers’ sweep of the Padres say more about the status of the Dodgers or Padres? Or neither?

Mark P

• It’s another sign that the Dodgers aren’t going anywhere.  All the momentum in the world seemed to be on SD’s side going into the series, but now the Dodgers have clinched the season series in emphatic fashion.

6 into 4

• Assuming the Jays rotation stays injury free (big if of course) who are the going to the odd men out in the postseason?  Presume Lauer will go to the pen despite the impressive season but who else of the other five will be dropped?

Jesse Barfield’s Arm

• Should Jays fans pump the breaks on presuming Bieber and Scherzer are locks for the 3 man rotation in Oct?  Shane is still recovering from TJ and Mad Max is a thumb injury away from the 60 day IR.

Mark P

• The Blue Jays are in the odd position of both having “too many” starters on paper, and also having Gausman as the only one of those six guaranteed to be a playoff starter.  As noted in these messages, Bieber hasn’t pitched a big league game in over 16 months, Scherzer is an injury risk, Lauer is the easiest to transition to a relief role, and Berrios/Bassitt have had their shares of shaky outings.

  The good news is that the Jays have several weeks to figure this out.  Perhaps the situation solves itself in a positive way (two starters get red-hot in September and become obvious locks for a playoff rotation) or in a negative way (injuries, struggles, etc.)

Canada

• Day for Night or Trouble At the Henhouse?

Mark P

• Both are fine choices, but Day For Night is one of my favorite albums ever.

  Wait, this is a Tragically Hip question….FAVOURITE albums ever.

Dean

• Likely or unlikely that Rays new ownership moves on from Neander and Cash?  I, for one, think it’s time for a leadership change.

Mark P

• Reports indicate that the new owners are likely to keep everything intact in the baseball ops department, and with good reason.
• If the Rays actually let Neander or Cash go, both would find new jobs within minutes.

Neto

• What does my extension look like?

Mark P

• Neto is a Super Two player, and will only be arb-eligible for the first of four times this upcoming offseason.  So with team control already established through 2029, the Angels might not feel the need to lock him up just yet.

  Also of note: a look at the MLBTR Contract Tracker indicates that the Angels haven’t been very active on the extension front for the last decade.  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=LAA&position…

• Trout is the big exception, of course, but his situation is obviously very different from Neto’s.  The Halos’ other extensions have been mostly shorter-term deals either covering arb years or with veteran players.

  With this in mind, it will interesting to see if the team tries to extend Neto, as he has done a lot to make himself look like a building block for LAA

Cleveland

• What would you like to see us do in the offseason? Has it just been some bad injury luck with prospects this year? Delauter and Brito were supposed to be big features of this team.

Mark P

• The Guardians have around $37.2MM on the books for next season (thanks to RosterResource!) and that isn’t counting arb raises or whatever might happen with Clase’s contract if he is suspended.

  I realize that expecting the Guards to suddenly break the bank is a fool’s errand, but investing in at least one proper everyday player who can legit hit, and one solid starting pitcher would go a long way.  The Gimenez trade alone cleared so much long-term money off Cleveland’s books that they can reinvest that cash into some much-needed hitting help.

Guest

• Basallo is a ML’er now. Shouldn’t there be another 10-12 prospects called up now that we’re past the middle of August?

Mark P

• No doubt.  Even going into my usual weekend duties, I was fully expecting to be writing at least one “Orioles call up Basallo” or “Orioles call up Beavers” post, for instance.

Fat Guy

• What direction do you think the Twins will go in 2026?

Mark P

• The front office will be trying to contend, but they very likely won’t have much (or any) spending room again.  Lopez’s contract makes him a prime candidate to be traded, but Ryan is inexpensive enough that I think he’d only be moved if another team offers the moon and stars.

Brewers GM Arnold

• Chances I trade Peralta this off-season?

Mark P

• I wouldn’t be entirely shocked since that’s just how the Brewers roll.  But, Peralta at $8MM is a such a huge bargain that it carries particular value to a Brewers team working within a limited budget.  As we saw with Adames, the Brewers are willing to let a talented player just reach free agency, and I suspect this might be the case here with Peralta.

  Milwaukee’s pitching depth perhaps adds more fuel to the idea that Peralta could be dealt, but there’s a difference between depth and the certainty that Peralta offers as a surefire frontline guy

Chris young

• Do the rangers have a legit shot or should we look forward to the off season? What is the rangers current cbt number for next season?

Mark P

• Texas has a lot of money off the books, and RosterResource has them close to $100MM under the 2026 tax line.  So that shouldn’t be an issue, even if it isn’t quite clear yet if they’ve ducked under the line for 2025.

  And as for their playoff chances now, things are getting ugly.  While the Yankees have their issues and nobody in the wild race is exactly on fire, I think the Rangers’ struggles have put them too far behind the eight ball

Marky Mark

• Whats on the Sunday Chat Playlist?

Mark P

• That earlier Tragically Hip question inspired me to put on some “Day For Night” tracks.

Kris Bryant

• How long do you think Kris Bryant will be out with his back issues? I was diagnosed with the same sa

Mark P

• At this point, Bryant’s career may well be over.  It’s hard to see him returning for anything close to a full season, as if he does get back for 2026, I worry it’ll be another case where he has to shut things down within a month.

Kokonuts

• Best guesses on where Nathaniel Lowe lands?

Kyle

• It’s pretty much a given that Lowe makes it through waivers, correct? Gut feeling of where he ends up?

Mark P

• Pretty much everyone immediately guessed Boston the moment Lowe was DFA’d

Bubba chandler

• When will I finally be promoted?

Mark P

• Any day now. Especially with Heaney being moved to the bullpen.

Kramer

• Is Falter still under arbitration next season with KC? If so, I guess he enters the rotatin discussion and replaces Lorenzen. Really liking what we’ve seen from Bergert. Will Kolak come up sometime this season with KC?

Mark P

• Falter is arb-controlled through 2028, so he’s a long-term piece.  Between Ragans, Wacha, Lugo, Cameron, Bubic, and now Falter and a couple of others, KC has plenty of rotation depth.
• Makes for some interesting trade possibilities this winter, even with the “you can never have enough pitching” caveat

Alex

• Thoughts on whether you think the Twins fire sale was the right call? I’m a twins fan and I thought every trade was good except Varland. This years team was headed nowhere

Mark P

• They traded mostly impending free agents, and I think moving Correa was a wise move in the big picture.  So from a pure baseball perspective, I get the logic of the trades, especially since they brought in a lot of young talent and a lot of MLB-ready players.

  But it doesn’t erase the fact that it’s unfortunate that it came to this, since this Twins team seemed to have all the momentum in the world coming off the 2023 season.  And, these kind of payroll cuts are yet another morale-killer to a fanbase that has had to put with a lot.

Jays Fan

• Is Eric Lauer under Jays control in 2026?

Mark P

• Yes, he has one remaining year of arbitration eligibility.

Frankie Montas

• Has any underperforming baseball player like me ever turned down a large player option to have more opportunity to play elsewhere? The handwriting is on the wall for me: I’m going to be buried behind many more talented starting pitchers if I say in Queens.

Mark P

• Montas is surely not opting out and leaving $17MM on the table.  His next contract wouldn’t be worth near that much.

Giants

• Do Giants look to add another big bat this offseason to go with Devers do you think?

Mark P

• Probably.  Though, it isn’t a great look that the offense is still such a problem even after such heavy investments in Adames, Chapman, and Lee
• And the investment of taking on Devers’ contract, of course

Commander McBragg

• Are you worried (like myself) that the Cubs won’t even make the playoffs this year.  They sure have looked terrible lately!!

Mark P

• The Cubs still have a healthy lead on the rest of the wild card field.  Despite their struggles, I think Milwaukee almost going unbeaten for like a month made Chicago’s struggles (which are real, don’t get me wrong) look a bit worse than they actually are

Password

• September cup of coffee? He’s already on the 40 man

Mark P

• Now that he’s started playing first base, Garcia as a call-up might be Boston’s preferred option than seeing what Nathaniel Lowe can provide in a new environment.

Kyle

• In light of the article the other day about Story opting out, where would you put the odds of that actually happening, and what kind of contract could he be looking at in this years free agent market?

Mark P

• I agree with Darragh’s take that Story will likely stay in his contract.  Maybe if Story goes scorching hot in September he might consider it, but it is much more likely that he stays in Boston rather than risk free agency

Guest

• Who has had the worst season, however you choose to define it? Braves, Rockies, Giants, Orioles, Twins? Someone else?

Mark P

• Expectations were so high for the Braves and Orioles that they’re certainly the biggest disappointments of this group.

Perry

• Should I focus more on Starting pitchers or relievers?

Mark P

• Rotation help is always more valuable but relievers are cheaper and (relatively) easier to find.  Starters have to be the first priority since if you can lock down at least one rotation spot, it has a good cascading effect on everything else

Braves Homer

• AA trade Profar for salary relief and go after Tucker?

Mark P

• What team would want to take on Profar’s contract, and before you say “the Padres,” remember that they have payroll limitations of their own.  Signing Tucker to a mega-deal would be out of character for the Braves, and seemingly unlikely for a team that made a point of getting under the tax line last winter

Tommy Lasorda meets God!!!

• Funniest thing you remember seeing in a game?

Mark P

• Forget about perfect games or four-homer games….I was at the “Alejandro Kirk stole a base” game the other night

Free agent buzz

• What do the Dbacks do this offseason. They moved their pending FAs, but feels like a full rebuild would be a weird move.

Mark P

• They’re not rebuilding.  They’ve got a good amount of money off the books and, while their payroll be lower than it was in 2025, they’ll still have some money to spend on upgrades.

  Fixing the pitching is the obvious priority, since they’ll need at least one starter and multiple relievers.

Hawk

• With Stearns in NY, who is the main brain behind the Brewers success?

Mark P

• This kind of consistent year-after-year succeeds needs a lot of people to keep the wheels turning rather than just one singular executive.

  Obviously the Mets made a point of recruiting Stearns and the Cubs hired Counsell away, but it’s interesting that you haven’t really seen the kind of coaching/front office hiring exodus from Milwaukee that you’ve seen with other teams making a point to hire people away from the Rays, Guardians, Dodgers, etc.

Gaurdiansjoe

• I know Bazzana just got to triple a, any chance he and Delauter get a call up this year to get their feet wet? Falling further and further back, might as well try for top 3 in next years rookie of the year

Mark P

• DeLauter might be out for the season due to his hamate surgery, and the Guardians probably don’t see any reason to rush Bazzana just yet.
• There does seem to be a decent chance Bazzana is Cleveland’s Opening Day second baseman, if the Guardians want to make a bold PPI move

Guidey Bud

• Soderstrom in LF has been dreadful… does the presence of Rooker and emergence of Kurtz block him from meaningful MLB at bats ?

Mark P

• The public defensive metrics have him at +1 DRS and +2 OAA.  The Fielding Bible people don’t exactly have him on their radar, but if Soderstrom can provide that kind of passable defense, he’ll work out just fine in left field
• We’re two hours deep, so it’s time to wrap things up.  Thanks to everyone who submitted a question!
• If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-8-17-25

Gaurdiansjoe

• How long are we gonna wait to know if we have our starting pitcher (Ortiz) or our all star closer (Classe)? Should we just assume they are both done for the year? For ever? Seems like we should of heard something, hopefully something good.

Steve Adams

• They’re on administrative leave until Aug. 31, so I doubt we’ll hear anything before then. My guess — and it is a total guess, just based on how prior league investigations regarding a variety of topics have played out — is that on 8/31, the league just announces that the leave has been extended through the end of the regular season (or possibly through the World Series), and they’ll quietly continue the investigation with an eye toward announcing discipline in the offseason.

Steve Cohen

• Will the Pirates ever call up Bubba Chandler this year?

Steve Adams

• After Aug. 15, players no longer have enough days on the calendar to exhaust their rookie status this year. I’m guessing that on 8/20 or so, Chandler is magically ready for the majors, and he’ll then head into ’26 in position to break camp on the roster and possibly net the Pirates a draft pick via the Prospect Promotion Incentives, depending on ROY voting.

KevininFla

• Do you believe the Padres will make a serious effort to re-sign Michael King in the offseason?

Steve Adams

• I’d be very surprised if they don’t make a real effort, yes. Cease seems likelier to go, between the two

Peace Love & pancakes

• Look ahead to next year for the Brewers — what might they be seeking in free agency? Do they go with Vaughn at first? Durbin at third? Ortiz at Short? Wait for the middle infield rookies to mature? If they spend any money (always a big if), what night they seek out?

Steve Adams

• I just don’t expect them to look to spend all that much. Vaughn has all but staked his claim to the 1B job in 2026 with his absurd turnaround. I could see them looking for some left-side infield help, but there aren’t many great options out there in that regard anyhow aside from Bregman or Suarez, I suppose, and the Brewers aren’t ponying up for either.I imagine they’ll be open to adding a veteran starter on a one-year deal and they’ll look for some bench/bullpen upgrades who won’t break the bank. They’ll at least listen to offers on Freddy Peralta, since he’s only signed one more year and that’s just what the Brewers do. But in general, I just wouldn’t get your hopes up for a big-money acquisition. It’s not how they typically operate, and based on how much success they have every year, I’m not really sure it’s how they need to operate.

Joshua

• Thoughts on the Nats starter Brad Lord? He’s been a pleasant surprise, do you think he could be a legit #3 starter? Thanks.

Steve Adams

• He’s been better than I’d have expected, but it’s below-average strikeout levels with good-not-great command and pretty poor chase/swinging-strike rates. A genuine No. 3 mid-rotation arm would surprise me. He feels more like a borderline No. 4/5 guy. He’s having a pretty similar season to Mitchell Parker’s 2024, granted with a lot more grounders (but also more walks and hit batters)

Free Agency

• Does Zac Gallen get a QO next year? Fair to assume King and Woodruff do, injuries notwithstanding?

Steve Adams

• All three will get qualifying offers.

AJ Preller

• Tell me I’m not dumb enough to Luis Arreaz to a long-term contract…No power, doesn’t walk, below average defense and speed… money could be spent in other places, right?

Steve Adams

• I’ve gotten a bunch of questions from Padres fans about this, seemingly because one Bleacher Report writer predicted Arraez will get something like six years and $90MM?I think Arraez’s contract will come in at maybe half that — I find most of that opinion piece’s predictions to be pretty unrealistic in one direction or another — and I don’t expect the Padres to be the ones to make a big push to re-sign him.

JV

• Do you think Verlander actually pitches next season? He says he plans to, but the issue would be what team would want him? Posey said at the press conference for JV he hopes to resign him in the offseason. Do you think thats still true?

Steve Adams

• Verlander had a rocky start but has a 4.02 ERA, 20 K% and 7.5 BB% over his past 16 starts. I don’t see why teams would think he’s incapable of pitching another year. If he wants to pitch, someone will sign him to a one-year deal. It’d probably come in under this year’s $15MM salary, but the idea that he’s cooked or something feels more like people reacting to his 1-9 record, which is more an indictment on the Giants’ roster than on Verlander’s ability.

Arodyankees

• Does Trent Grisham get a QO??

Steve Adams

• It’d be defensible, but I lean against it. The Yankees are luxury payors, so they’d only get a pick after the 4th round if he rejected and signed elsewhere. That’s not especially great compensation, and they probably don’t want Grisham taking up a $22MM salary on day one of the offseason when they already have Judge, Dominguez and Spencer Jones in the outfield mix.

Oz

• The Braves will have $32 million to spend when Marcell Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias depart via free agency.  What moves do you think Alex Anthopoulos will make this Winter?

Steve Adams

• That’s not really true. I mean, it’s true that the $16MM salaries of Ozuna and Iglesias are off the books, but all of that money will be eaten up organically by raises elsewhere on the roster.Spencer Strider’s salary jumps from $4MM to $20MM. Reynaldo Lopez goes from $8MM to $14MM. Jurickson Profar from $12MM to $15MM. (Well, he only got half that salary this year with the suspension, so technically from $6MM to $15MM). Aaron Bummers goes $3.5MM to $9.5MM.

  The arb class is small, with several non-tender candidates (Kelenic, Eli White, Dane Dunning, Nick Allen) — but Dylan Lee will get a raise from just over $1MM to something between $2-3MM as well.

• The Braves have $159MM on next year’s books, and that’s before picking up options on Chris Sale, Pierce Johnson, Ozzie Albies and Tyler Kinley. That’ll bump that $159MM figure to $191MM. ($193MMish, after accounting for Dylan Lee)
• The Braves don’t really spend aggressively in free agency anyhow, so I’m not sure it matters a ton. I’d expect them to be more active on the trade market as they look for upgrades at shortstop and perhaps a bat to cycle through the OF/DH

RoxTalks

• Does Cody Bellinger pick up his player option? My gut says yes based on his slightly lackluster batted ball profile, but he’s had an above average year at the dish and at multiple positions in the field so I could see him declining it and seeking more on the open market.

Steve Adams

• No chance he picks it up. It’s a net $20MM decision for him, and he’ll trounce that mark in free agency.
• Bellinger has been an above-average bat for three years now. The injury is behind him. He’s playing good defense at multiple spots. He’ll be 30 for most of next year. He should pursue — and will likely find — something like a five-year deal.

Mets4Life

• What are the chances Mets resign Alonso now that he’s soon to be the franchise’s all time HR leader?

Steve Adams

• The Mets didn’t want to sign him long-term last offseason, and I don’t see any reason they’d be more excited about doing so now that he’s a year older. I expect Alonso to decline his player option, hit the open market (this time without a QO), and sign elsewhere for something like $100-110MM over four years.If the same cycle plays out, where he goes out seeking a massive deal and is left standing in February, maybe the Mets will circle back with another opt-out deal.

Bobby M

• Adolis Garcia DFA candidate soon? He’s been absolutely brutal this season and the team would be better without him on the roster. He’ll be non tendered so why not see if someone picks up the salary

Steve Adams

• I don’t expect him to be DFA, no — though I wouldn’t be totally stunned if they put him on outright waivers later in the month to see if someone will claim him.I do agree he’s a non-tender candidate, but they can run him through waivers without committing to cutting him. If he clears, they can hang onto him and see if he catches fire in September and restores a little trade juice. They’re stuck paying him either way, so may as well hang onto him and see if there’s any sort of market early in the offseason.

K Dubs

• Do the Phillies promote Crawford after Aug 15?  He absolutely deserves the look; Batting .330 and .416 OBP in 94 games.  And if so, what does the OF look like with Bader, Marsh, Kepler in the mix and heavy on LH hitters?

Steve Adams

• Yeah I expect he’ll be up once we get past the 2026 rookie cutoff there, and I imagine the Phillies will just DFA Kepler once they decide to bring Crawford up. It hasn’t been a good fit. No one’s going to claim the rest of the contract, of course, so he’d be released in that scenario.

romorr

• So after 3 IL visits and a bad year of pitching, what’s Eflins market look like? See too many people thinking he still gets 3-4 years @ 20 million+. Seems like the perfect 1 year guy to rebuild value.

Steve Adams

• I doubt I’d have predicted much more than 3/66  even with a healthy season. I agree, he’s a one-year guy — maybe two with an opt-out, I suppose.

Steve

• How long are you going to run an ad in between every question and answer? Its terribly annoying and to me is rapidly causing me to skip your chat altogether.

Steve Adams

• Genuinely do not know what you’re referencing. There shouldn’t be ads in the chat, and no one has ever complained about this before. Send us an email through the contact form with more details?

Bo’s Brother

• I know it’s a few months away, but what’s the ballpark for a Josh Naylor contract this offseason? Will he best Christian Walker’ contract? Naylor is a few years younger, but Walker put up better numbers leading into free agency.

Steve Adams

• I think he can top the total guarantee but probably not the AAV. Naylor is a hard one to peg, but in a world where Andrew Benintendi gets $75MM, I’d be looking to match or top that. He’s a better hitter who’s also hitting the market at an uncommonly young age (as Benintendi did).

Re: Bellinger

• If/when he declines his option, are the Yankees still obligated to pay him the $5 million buyout?

Steve Adams

• Yes

Jonny Venters

• What does a Murakami deal look like?

Steve Adams

• It’s too early to tell. He’s missed most of the NPB season with an oblique injury and only just returned. I touched on Murakami in the followup to our Power Rankings last week:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/2025-26-mlb-free-agent-power-ra…

Jake

• Have we ever seen a contending team make an acquisition blunder like the Cubs did with Mike Soroka? Velo was trending down on a pitcher who has an injury history and they made the trade anyways?

Steve Adams

• The velo dip was pretty notable, but the Cubs were obviously comfortable enough with their review of his medicals.I don’t think their big blunder was necessarily in acquiring Soroka at all, but rather in having him stand as the only real addition to a rotation that’s in glaring need of more help.

  The Cubs (and Tigers and several others) seem paralyzed by the notion of giving up top prospects in a trade. The entire industry as a whole — Padres, Mariners and maybe the Phillies excluded — seems to be in this boat. Front offices are so protective of prospects that it’s reached the point of absurdity, in my view.

  The number of guys who’ve gone from untouchable to sell-low trade chips and eventual DFA fodder is staggering. The MLB front office groupthink regarding prospects is so over the top.

Raz Sox

• Tanner Houck a non-tender?

Steve Adams

• I lean that way. I could see keeping him if he’d been good when healthy and then had the TJS, but he was maybe the worst starter in the league. Obviously, the elbow health (or lack thereof) probably contributed to that, but you’d be tendering him for something like $4.5MM to $5MM knowing he won’t pitch next year and knowing he’d command the same salary in arb the following season. If Boston feels Houck’s 2027 is worth two years and $9-10MM, I suppose that’s defensible. (2024 Houck certainly was, obviously) But a non-tender seems reasonably likely to me.

JErry DIpoto Mind Trick

• the Ms have to make a real effort to sign Naylor, right? He’s a perfect fit and we don’t have any real 1B prospects in the system

Steve Adams

• I’m sure they’ll make some effort, but I don’t know that the lack of high-end 1B prospects in their system means much. The free agent market this year will have Ryan O’Hearn, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, Luis Arraez and, of course, Naylor. Trade market could have Nate Lowe, Ryan Mountcastle, Triston Casas, Alec Burleson and others.
• So sure, if they like Naylor well enough, absolutely make a run at keeping him. But I don’t think it’s any sort of colossal misstep if they decide they don’t want to go 4-5 years on him and pivot to something shorter-term.

Mountcastle

• Mountcastle and Mayo for Luis Robert.  Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Baltimore

Mike

• Yanks offer weaver 3-45 with a player option for another 12 right now weaver take it?

Steve Adams

• That’s not a 3-year, $45MM offer. That’s a 4-year, $57MM offer with the final season being a player option. If they offer that, yes, Weaver should take it.

Ben and Jerry Rice cream

• Why are top 100 lists sleeping on Dakota Jorden ? He’s got Major league talent and is kicking butt

Steve Adams

• He’s hitting well as a former college player playing against younger opponents in Low-A and still K’ing at a 23% clip. He struck out a ton in college. He’s striking out a lot considering the opposition he’s facing, too.
• An NCAA player who’s more than a year removed from being drafted within the first four rounds should be beating up Class-A pitching. Statistically, nothing he’s doing is particularly crazy.For what it’s worth, MLB.com just ranked him sixth among Giants’ prospects in their re-rank of all 30 systems today, though.

DTownWarrior78

• I am totally peeved at Scott Harris and the Tigers FO for not going after E. Suarez, as he was the bat that could really stretch this lineup. But with the moves that this FO did make, do you think we have enough to make a “serious” run this postseason?

Steve Adams

• It’s a toss-up between Tigers and Cubs for most disappointing deadline, in my view. I have a hard time seeing this bullpen making a deep run, but they have a knack for getting high-end performance out of some unexpected relievers. Maybe they can finally get Kyle Finnegan to miss bats the way you’d expect someone with his velo/stuff to. Maybe they can get Rafael Montero back to 2022 form.I don’t really see it, personally, but I’m always open to being proven wrong — which happens plenty! I think they should’ve done more.

  Darragh and I talked about this again on the podcast episode that’ll drop tomorrow, because we had lots of questions about the Tigers’ pedestrian deadline.

Splashy Cubs

• Cubs need an off season splash especially if they lose Tucker so who do they get?  Bellinger reunion or someone else?

Steve Adams

• They’ve got Busch at 1B and an outfield with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara. They clearly didn’t want to move Caissie at the deadline.I don’t think they’d shell out five years and $100MM+ for Bellinger. (Someone will) If they make a big move, a more legitimate run at Bregman or a quality rotation arm seems more feasible.

ccsilvia

• Prediction on whether Edwin Diaz exercises his 18.5M player option or hits the market?

Steve Adams

• Easy call to turn down the 2/37 left on his deal and test free agency again.

Pablo Lopez

• This question is based on an earlier response. Did I just not come off the top of your head, or do you think Joe Ryan is more likely to be traded than I? If so, why? Thanks for the chats. They’re a lot of fun.

Steve Adams

• Depends on how he finishes the season, but if Lopez doesn’t make it back, or he makes it back but has diminished results, it’s not crazy to me to think they’d hang onto him and shop him at next year’s deadline. (Again, assuming the Twins don’t have a new owner in place and thus continue trending toward the rebuild side of things)

Miguel Andujar

• With this season I am having am I better than Torres and can match his $12-$15 million annual salary?

Steve Adams

• Torres was 27 this past offseason. Andujar will be 31 in March. And his rate stats are largely attributable to being shielded from RHP to an extent. He’s decimated lefties and been a league-average bat against righties. He doesn’t have much/any defensive value. I don’t see how he gets into Gleyber range on a one-year deal.

Andrew

• If he opts out, would the Tigers seriously consider taking another run at Bregman?

Steve Adams

• He will opt out, and I expect the Tigers to chase after him again, yes.

bmcferren

• Luis Robert gets a major league contract this offseason or just a minor league invite?

Steve Adams

• The White Sox will probably exercise his option, which is insane to me, but that was their thinking behind not trading him.He’d get a big league deal if they declined it, though.

WeNeedtoFindNimmo

• So if Diaz opts out, what does he get?  Would think he is probably getting around $20m/season for another 3-4 years… and I don’t think the Mets are going to lose him given he’s been a success in NY

Steve Adams

• Yeah, I think around 4/80. I also think it’ll come from someone other than the Mets unless Steve Cohen personally steps in. Signing a reliever to a long-term deal at $20MM annually feels like the antithesis of the David Stearns baseball operations playbook.

SandyEggo

• Laureano’s option get exercised? He’s been excellent in 2025 and 6.5 won’t break the bank.

Steve Adams

• Definitely exercised, barring some major injury

Medical malpractice lawyer

• I get teams like to sometimes hide/downplay injuries publicly, but two years in a row now the Astros have had “minor injuries” turn into nearly year long absences. Is this medical malpractice, or simply publicly being shady?

Steve Adams

• Houston has for years been the least forthcoming team in the game when it comes to the health of their players. They did recently start (finally) issuing weekly medical updates on their injured guys, however.

Pirates

• Will the Pirates trade Skenes in the off season, or at next years deadline?

Steve Adams

• I doubt either. Probably 2+ years before they get to really considering that (and only if the franchise is still toiling)

Kyle

• If the Red Sox wanted to move Yoshida in the offseason, how much money would they have to eat to get someone to take him?

Steve Adams

• Probably close to $30MM of the $36MM he’s still owed? Jesse Winker got $7.5MM on a one-year deal last winter with the same skill set and coming off a better year. Yoshida feels like a guy who might get a year and $5MM or so. If he has a big finish, maybe they only need to eat like $25MM or so, but we’re talking the majority either way.

Astros Infield

• SOMEONE is going to have to be traded during the offseason, right?  I don’t see how otherwise everyone fits.

Steve Adams

• I could see them making Christian Walker or Isaac Paredes available — probably preferring to move the former.

CubanMissileCrisis

• Would the Sox consider a QO for Chapman? He’s older than rope but probably been the best closer in baseball this season, no?

Steve Adams

• I was queueing up a “he’s already received one in the past and thus can’t get another one,” but he’s been traded and extended at prior points where he’d have received one, so he surprisingly is still fair game for one.I have to think that given his age, he’d accept. Accepting a QO for him would also immediately give him the all-time AAV record for a reliever. Nice little perk!

  It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world to make the offer, but $22MM (or thereabouts) is more than he’d get on a one-year deal in free agency, so I feel like they’ll probably pass on doing so. Good as he’s been, I’m not sure even the Red Sox believe he can suddenly sustain a 7% walk rate after sitting 14.5% or higher in each of the four prior seasons.

AA

• How big of a return can Alex get for Sean Murphy this off-season? I assume Walcott is not happening? Thoughts? Comments? Concerns?!

Steve Adams

• No, not getting Sebastian Walcott for three years of Sean Murphy at $45MM. It’s nice value, sure, but it’s not like there’s $50MM of surplus value there or anything.I’m not entirely convinced they trade him. Could just go Baldwin/Murphy at DH/C next year.

  In general, while I think the remaining Murphy money is fine, I don’t expect that the Braves would be able to command any true top-tier prospects if they move him. Swapping him for a big league SP on a team that has pitching depth and needs C help has some merit though.

JaysFan

• Should Blue Jays fans enjoy this run with Bo, or do you think he will re-sign?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think re-signing him is out of the question. They have $188MM on next year’s books but only $142MM the following season. They’re nearing the end of the Springer and Gausman deals. Bichette has been open about how he’d love to stay in Toronto and spend his career playing alongside Vlad.He’s probably playing his way into a contract upwards of $200MM, but the Jays can stomach that. Would be easier if they hadn’t taken on so much of that Andres Gimenez deal. Whoops.
• Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, a weekly subscriber-only chat with Anthony (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker, our GM Tracker, our Agency Database, and more. It all starts at $2.99/month.

  Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!