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Jose Guillen

Olney’s Latest: Tigers, Hart, Sheets

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Injuries could play a part in increasing trading before Saturday's deadline, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider link). With a handful of teams, most notably the Tigers, seeing key players head to the disabled list, many clubs' needs are in flux. Detroit, for instance, had been focusing on acquiring a starting pitcher, but with Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez all recently placed on the DL, the team may need to look into bats as well. Here are the other highlights of Olney's column:

  • If the Tigers pursue an outfielder, they could ask about Jayson Werth, Jose Guillen, or Jeff Francoeur. Dave Dombrowski has said he won't trade top prospects for rental players though, according to this tweet by Tom Gage of the Detroit News.
  • Corey Hart's hand injury doesn't appear serious, but one GM tells Olney: "If [the Brewers] are going to get anything in a trade, he's got to play before the deadline and show he's healthy."
  • Scouts had noticed a dip in Ben Sheets' velocity and less use of his breaking ball before the right-hander hit the DL with elbow trouble. Olney notes that Oakland's "Matt Holliday plan" has been a bust in Sheets' case, since his injury means they're stuck with him.
  • Olney hears from a GM that there's "a lot of conversation about a lot of players" happening right now, meaning we could see a flurry of trade activity this week.

Jose Guillen Drawing Interest

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There are several teams with at least "a passing interest" in Jose Guillen, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal names the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Padres, and Giants as potential Guillen suitors.

The Giants, who have been connected to virtually every available outfielder, were said to have scouted Guillen last night. However, most of the other clubs Rosenthal lists have yet to be linked to Guillen. The Yanks, Sox, Mets, and Padres could all be in the market for another outfielder, and may not have to take on too much salary to acquire Guillen — last month, we heard from ESPN.com's Buster Olney that the Royals were willing to eat a good chunk of the money owed to the 34-year-old. Guillen has approximately $4.76MM remaining on his $12MM 2010 salary.

With David DeJesus on the disabled list for the rest of the season, Guillen (.279/.342/.463) has become the Royals' most appealing chip for teams in search of outfield help.

Odds & Ends: Greinke, Cardinals, DeJesus, Guillen

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Links for Friday, exactly one year after the Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt…

Odds & Ends: Wood, Cards, Uggla, Guillen, Lilly

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Links for Friday, after an impressive start from trade candidate Ted Lilly…

What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates

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Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings. 

We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).

It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.

Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:

  • Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
  • David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
  • Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking. 
  • Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
  • Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.

And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.

  • John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
  • Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
  • Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
  • Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
  • Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
  • Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
  • Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
  • Octavio Dotel –  Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
  • Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.

Cafardo On Hart, Farnsworth, Dunn, Guillen

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The Red Sox' ability to plug holes in their roster following a slew of injuries can be attributed in large part to Allard Baird, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. After discussing Baird's importance to the Sox and listing his All-Star picks, Cafardo shares a few hot stove items….

  • The Giants are "very interested" in Corey Hart, but with Milwaukee not entirely out of the NL Central race, the Brewers haven't yet elected to become sellers.
  • Although it's unclear whether or not Boston would have any interest in Kyle Farnsworth, Cafardo thinks he could be an option for the Sox. Farnsworth's strikeout rate is down to 6.8 K/9 this season, but a National League scout opines that the right-hander's stuff is as strong as ever.
  • Cafardo speculates that the White Sox would part with a promising prospect or two in exchange for Adam Dunn, and suggests that the Braves, Giants, and Rays could be fits for Jose Guillen.
  • After being told by a couple potential suitors that they needed to see him play, Wily Mo Pena is attempting to earn another shot at the bigs by playing in the Atlantic League.
  • A friend of D'Backs interim general manager Jerry DiPoto tells Cafardo that he thinks DiPoto may not have total freedom to make moves this month: "I get the feeling the major shots will be called above Jerry. If Jerry gets a chance, he’ll do some interesting things, but we’ll see whether he’ll have some reins on him."

Odds & Ends: Tracy, Braves, Brewers, Phillies

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Links for Friday, as the international signing period begins…

  • Chad Tracy's agent told MLB.com's Bill Ladson that his client has interest in playing for Mike Rizzo's Nationals, since Rizzo, Arizona's former scouting director, drafted Tracy in 2001 (Twitter link).
  • You can listen to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes talking trades on the YES Network's Off the Wall podcast right here.
  • Earlier in the week we heard that the Braves weren't crazy about David DeJesus and that remains true, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Morosi says the Braves are not pursuing DeJesus or Jose Guillen.
  • The Brewers would listen to offers for Todd Coffey and Carlos Villanueva, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse (via Twitter).
  • Assistant GM Scott Proefrock told Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer that the current edition of the Phillies has to perform. Chase Utley will miss eight weeks or more and Placido Polanco will miss three to four weeks, so the Phillies’ depth will be tested if they don’t make a trade.
  • As expected, the Yankees promoted Dustin Moseley, according to Conor Orr of the Star Ledger. Some teams called the Yankees to inquire about the righty's availability as his opt-out date drew nearer.
  • One GM who just did an overview of the Royals' farm system told ESPN.com's Buster Olney that he's impressed by the team's prospects.
  • D'Backs president Derrick Hall says the team won't likely start searching for a permanent GM until the offseason, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times (via Twitter).
  • Not surprisingly, the D'Backs have yet to ask the Dodgers for permission to interview assistant GM Logan White, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
  • Red Sox supplemental rounder Anthony Ranaudo is looking to be paid like a top-ten pick, according to Amanda Comak of the Cape Cod Times. Check out the complete list of first rounders to sign right here.
  • The Brewers released Triple A outfielder Trent Oeltjen, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Rosenthal On Cliff Lee, MacDougal, Dunn, Valentine

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Cliff Lee starts tonight at Yankee stadium, and it figures to be one of his last outings in a Mariners uniform.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his column with an examination of the market for Lee, noting that "the acquisition cost should be lower than the last two times he was traded."  Rosenthal sees no obvious favorite for the lefty at this time, though Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times believes "the buzz about a possible deal with the crosstown Mets is growing louder and louder."  Rosenthal's other rumorage:

  • The Nationals have until Thursday to decide whether to promote Mike MacDougal.  Otherwise, he can elect free agency.  The hard-throwing righty has a 4.71 ERA, 5.6 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 in 21 minor league innings.
  • Rosenthal confirms other reports that the White Sox and Angels like Nationals slugger Adam Dunn.  He notes that Dunn "does not want to become a DH."
  • One executive feels that Jose Guillen will continue to hit well with the contract year carrot dangling.  Yesterday we learned from ESPN's Buster Olney that the Royals are pushing hard to move Guillen and will eat much of the $6.3MM remaining on his contract.  As for David DeJesus, an exec told Rosenthal the Royals "want to hit a home run" in any trade.
  • The Giants seek stability in their left-handed relief crew (currently Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler), but the need could be addressed internally.
  • The Cardinals "likely will wait until at least the All-Star break to fully assess their needs."  The starting pitching situation will depend on the recoveries of Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse.
  • At another link, Rosenthal updates the Bobby Valentine-Marlins situation.

Giants, Red Sox Among Teams Eyeing Royals

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The Giants and Red Sox are among the teams eyeing Royals players, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Royals GM Dayton Moore is willing to listen to offers, but anticipating the return for the likes of David DeJesus and Jose Guillen is difficult, even for those in the team’s front office.

“I can tell you this much,” one Royals official told Dutton, “nobody is willing to take on payroll. But teams don’t want to deal prospects, either. So it makes it tough to do anything.” 

Dutton reports that the Giants have interest in Guillen on the condition that the Royals absorb most of the $6.3MM or so remaining on his contract. Earlier today, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported that the Royals are looking to move Guillen and are willing to pick up most of his salary in a trade, but Moore insists that the Royals are not actively looking to trade. Two rival scouts told Dutton that the Royals say they will take on a considerable amount of Guillen’s salary, so it doesn’t appear that Guillen would be tough to obtain.

If the Royals decide to start selling aggressively, they could discuss Mike Aviles and Willie Bloomquist with the Red Sox, who see the infielders as candidates to fill in while Dustin Pedroia's fractured left foot heals. The Red Sox are considering infielders and had some interest in Adam Everett before Pedroia's injury. One scout said Kyle Farnsworth could appeal to teams as a reliever if the Royals decide to part with him.

Royals Pushing To Trade Jose Guillen

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The Royals are "really pushing to move Jose Guillen," tweets ESPN's Buster Olney, and "continue to tell teams they will eat a lot of dollars."  Guillen, the team's designated hitter, has $6.39MM remaining on his contract.

The 34-year-old Guillen sports a .282/.344/.470 line on the season, with strong April and June work sandwiching a rough May.  Aside from his time at DH, he's tallied 103 innings in right field.

Which contenders could use a potential offensive boost?  An American League club makes the most sense.  The White Sox and Rays don't have much at DH.  The Yankees are another consideration.  The Padres and Giants could be suitors, if they'd dare let Guillen play the outfield full-time again.

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