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Zack Greinke

Quick Hits: Pettitte, Murphy, Soriano, Greinke

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Cesar Carrillo, a right-handed pitcher in the Tigers system, became the first player listed in the Biogenesis documents to be suspended, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (twitter link).  As FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal and others have noted, MLB has "greater jurisdiction over minor leaguers like Carrillo than major leaguers who are protected by the players' union."  Here are some other notes from around the majors:

  • Mariano Rivera's retirement plans have fellow Yankee stalwart Andy Pettitte wondering how and when to end his own "long, strange journey," as Daniel Barbarisi of The Wall Street Journal describes it.  Pettitte sees some merit to ending his career around the same time as those of his long-time teammates, but does not want to "stop playing until I know that I'm done."
  • Outfielder David Murphy is still waiting to work out a long-term extension with the Rangers after discussing that possibility with the club earlier in the offseason, writes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.  While Murphy reiterated that he wants to remain a Ranger and has no hard feelings for the lack of progress towards a deal, he added that free agency is a "privilege" and that "waiting another year is not going to kill me."
  • While the Cubs "feel the presence of teams watching Alfonso Soriano," nevertheless "no substantive talks have taken place yet," tweets Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.  Cafardo mentions the Phillies and Yankees as teams that are "on [the] radar" for a possible Soriano deal.
  • With Zack Greinke still dealing with elbow issues, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly indicated that the right-handed starter is facing an ever-narrowing window to be ready for the start of the regular season, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.  As has previously been noted, Greinke's timeline could impact the availability of the Dodgers' excess starting pitching options, such as Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Hernandez, Rockies, Posey

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Earlier today we heard that the Padres haven't settled on a long-term strategy for third baseman Chase Headley. They'll hold onto him for now, but could trade or extend him later in 2013. Here are more notes from the Padres' division…

Zach Links and Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Transaction Retrospection: The First Greinke Trade

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Zack Greinke made quite a few headlines this offseason by becoming the highest-paid right-handed pitcher in Major League history (Felix Hernandez has since topped him). The former No. 6 overall selection in the draft signed a six-year, $147MM with the Dodgers.

Greinke has long been a high-profile arm, thanks largely to his 2009 American League Cy Young Award. His 9.3 wins above replacement (Fangraphs version) that season were the most by any pitcher since Randy Johnson's 2004 season.

So it's no wonder that Greinke had a long list of suitors when it became evident that the Royals were going to trade him. Nor is it surprising that Greinke commanded a young shortstop, a young center fielder and a pair of right-handers that had both been first-round picks.

On December 19, 2010, the Royals traded Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Brewers in exchange for shortstop Alcides Escobar (24 years old at the time), center fielder Lorenzo Cain (24), right-hander Jake Odorizzi (20) and right-hander Jeremy Jeffress (23). Each player in the deal had recently ranked in Milwaukee's Top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America. Let's take a look at each on an individual basis… Greinke

The Major League Side

  • Zack Greinke: Greinke joined Shaun Marcum as one of two offseason acquisitions for the Brewers that offseason, as the team clearly had an "all-in" mentality entering the final season of Prince Fielder's contract. He broke a rib that offseason playing basketball, limiting him to 171 2/3 innings, but he pitched to a 3.83 ERA with an NL-best 10.5 K/9 when healthy. The Brewers ultimately finished with a 96-66 record, netting them an NL Central Division title. Greinke got his only taste of postseason baseball that year but allowed an unsightly 12 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings. The Brewers lost in the NLCS to the Cardinals, who would go on to win the World Series. Greinke hurled 123 more innings for the Brew Crew in 2012, pitching to a 3.44 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 before being traded to the Angels. GM Doug Melvin landed Jean Segura, John Hellweg and Ariel Pena in that deal, but that's a whole different post.
  • Yuniesky Betancourt: Betancourt hit a paltry .252/.271/.381 with the Brewers but still totaled 584 plate appearances in spite of that sub-par production. His defense was also well below-average, and the result was a mere 0.4 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs. Betancourt did manage to swat 13 homers that season — the second-highest mark of his career — but his lack of plate discipline and poor glove mitigated most of that value. He would go on to re-sign with the Royals as a free agent the following offseason and is now in the Phillies organization as a non-roster invitee.
  • Alcides Escobar: Milwaukee's No. 3 prospect at the time of the trade (per BA) Escobar has blossomed into the Royals' everyday shortstop, posting fWAR marks of 2.2 and 2.6 in his first two seasons with Kansas City. He doesn't walk often (4.2 percent), but he's posted a respectable .274/.311/.368 triple slash line with Kansas City. That includes significant improvement from 2011-12, as his OPS+ jumped from 74 to 98 between the two years. He's developed into an elite base-stealer, collecting 61 swipes in 75 tries (81.3 percent). In 2012, he went 35-for-40 (87.5 percent). The Fielding Bible evaluates Escobar's defense at +12 runs during his time with Kansas City, while Ultimate Zone Rating feels he's been closer to average. Still just 26 years old, Escobar has room for growth.
  • Lorenzo Cain: Cain's arrival as Kansas City's everyday center fielder was delayed by the acquisition of Melky Cabrera. Groin and thigh strains have cost Cain 98 games between his two seasons with the Royals, but he looks poised to take the reins as the team's everyday center fielder in 2013. It's a small sample, but Cain has a .266/.315/.410 batting line in 267 plate appearances with the Royals. His seven homers and ten steals translate to a 162-game average of 17 homers and 25 steals — a well-above average combination of power and speed for a center fielder. In 726 1/3 career innings in center, UZR/150 rates him at 14.4 runs above average, and The Fielding Bible agrees at +15 runs. He's excelled in the Minors for the Royals and is in the midst of an impressive Spring Training showing, but he'll already be 27 on April 13. Kansas City needs to let Cain play in order to determine if they have a long-term piece this season.

The Prospect Side

  • Jake Odorizzi: Odorizzi made his big league debut for Kansas City in 2012, but totaled only 7 1/3 innings. Those will likely be the only innings he ever throws for the Royals, as GM Dayton Moore included the now-22-year-old in the James Shields trade. Odorizzi is BA's No. 92 prospect in all of baseball, and he ranks 45th on MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo's version of the same list. BA ranks him fifth among Rays prospects, praising his four average pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change-up) but noting that he lacks a true out pitch. Both BA and Mayo agree that Odorizzi has a chance to become a reliable No. 3 starter, but his ceiling is limited by average offerings across the board.
  • Jeremy Jeffress: Jeffress' star has fallen considerably since he ranked as BA's No. 100 prospect prior to the 2009 season. Now 25 years of age, the Royals traded him to the Blue Jays for cash considerations this past November. Jeffress pitched 82 innings for Kansas City's Triple-A affiliate and maintained his strong strikeout rate (9.3 K/9) but walked too many (4.7 BB/9) and allowed nearly a hit per inning as well. He received a pair of call-ups to the big league club but walked 24 batters in 26 2/3 innings. He has the potential to be a power arm late in games, but he'll now look to fulfill that upside elsewhere.

In the end, the Brewers got an ace-caliber pitcher and an NLCS berth in exchange for the four prospects they dealt. Greinke managed to net them a trio of prospects including a new, promising shortstop to replace Escobar. Kansas City turned Greinke into an everyday shortstop, a promising center fielder and a pitching prospect that helped them acquire a new ace-caliber pitcher (Shields). However, the Royals are better positioned to compete with this top-of-the-rotation arm than they were the last time they had one.

Both teams fell a bit short of their best case scenarios (Milwaukee didn't win a World Series, and Kansas City cut ties with Jeffress for next to nothing), but this is a trade that definitely reaped benefits for each side.

Baseball America's 2013 Prospect Handbook was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Greinke Gave Rangers Chance To Beat Dodgers’ Offer

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Zack Greinke signed a contract that made him — at the time — the highest-paid right-handed pitcher ever this offseason (Felix Hernandez has since topped him). The money, Greinke told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports quite candidly, was the biggest factor in his decision to sign with the Dodgers. However, multiple sources indicated to Heyman that Greinke gave the Rangers an opportunity to top the Dodgers' final offer before agreeing to his six-year, $147MM contract. Greinke made an offer to the Rangers, but Texas elected to counter-offer rather than accept it.

According to Heyman, the Rangers and Dodgers were in a "near-dead heat" on the main terms of the contract, but the Rangers wouldn't budge on giving Greinke an opt-out clause after three seasons. Beyond that, Greinke told Heyman that he vastly prefers National League baseball to the American League version:

"It's boring watching American League games to me,'' Greinke said. “With the Angels we had (Mike) Trout, (Albert) Pujols, (Mark) Trumbo, (Kendrys) Morales and (Torii) Hunter, but it wasn't as much fun as watching Milwaukee's team. There's much more strategy."

Heyman also writes that Greinke met with Dodgers officials himself before completing his deal with the team. The former No. 6 overall pick in the draft has long been fascinated by free agency. He turned down a trade to the Nationals that would have come with a $100MM extension a little more than two years ago in part because he didn't think the Nationals were ready to win, but also because he was too fascinated by free agency:

“I wanted to see it. If it was going to be only one year for $1 million, I wanted to see for myself,'' he said.

Greinke went several months without an agent last year, though he ultimately hired Casey Close shortly after Opening Day.

As MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows, Greinke's $147MM contract is the third-largest contract ever signed by a pitcher, with only Hernandez and CC Sabathia ranking ahead of him (he topped Cole Hamels by $3MM). Candidates to displace Greinke from the Top 3 in the next couple of years include Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. However, with three dominant seasons, Greinke could enter free agency again as a 32-year-old and position himself for another hefty contract that would extend into his late 30s.

Los Angeles Notes: Vizquel, Theriot, Greinke

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The two teams representing the Greater Los Angeles area appear to be on collision course for a World Series matchup given the depth of their respective rosters. From the Dodgers adding arguably one of the most dominant pitchers in the game (Zack Greinke) to the Angels bolstering their already powerful lineup with the bat of Josh Hamilton, both teams have their eyes set on October. Here's the latest from around Tinseltown.

  • Omar Vizquel finds himself at a Spring Training camp for the 25th year in a row, but this time he'll be the one leading instruction as he transitions from player to coach, writes Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. The potential future Hall of Famer begins the journey from coach to manager as the Angels' roving infield instructor. 
  • Ryan Theriot's possible return to the Giants remains unlikely given the veteran's desire for increased playing time, specifically, as a starter, says Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Gate (via Twitter). Theriot, 33, posted a .270/.316/.321 batting line in 104 games with the Giants in 2012.
  • Zack Greinke spoke with reporters on Friday about dealing with anxiety issues that nearly derailed his career back when he was a rookie in 2006, writes Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register. "I haven't really had a problem with any of it since 2007," Greinke said. "I don't really think about it ever anymore. It was just [taking] the medicine. It really was."

L.A. Notes: Greinke, Mattingly, Hamilton, Pujols

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Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke is a “baseball junkie,” writes FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, who notes that Greinke participated in scouting trips with the Brewers’ front office while he pitched for Milwaukee. Greinke wanted the Brewers to pick infielder Corey Seager, but Greinke’s current team, the Dodgers, took Seager before the Brewers had a chance to select him. Here are more notes from the Dodgers and Angels:

  • Greinke doesn’t mind making less money than Felix Hernandez, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports. The Mariners right-hander recently signed a seven-year, $175MM extension, topping Greinke’s six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers. Hernandez is “a better pitcher than I am,” Greinke says.
  • ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden predicts that the Dodgers will extend manager Don Mattingly’s contract during Spring Training. Bowden suggests that Davey Johnson’s impending retirement, which will create what would appear to be a desirable managerial opening with the Nationals, could help convince the Dodgers to extend Mattingly, preventing him from leaving.
  • New Angels outfielder Josh Hamilton describes hitting in the Los Angeles lineup, alongside Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, as “appealing,” the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea reports (on Twitter).
  • Pujols, meanwhile, says that “We look good on paper, but we still have to go out there and perform,” MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes (on Twitter).

NL West Notes: Rockies, Fowler, Greinke, Dodgers

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The Diamondbacks could be on the verge of completing a three-team deal with the Indians and Reds, but that's not all that's happening in the National League West..

  • If the deal sending Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds goes through, it'll be much less likely that the Rockies will trade Dexter Fowler this winter, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com tweets.  Their best remaining chance for a trade partner for Fowler would be the Mariners if they strike out on Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn.
  • In the wake of the Zack Greinke signing, the Dodgers could wind up making Clayton Kershaw baseball's first $30MM-a-year pitcher, writes Dylan Hernandez of Los Angeles Times.  However, the Dodgers are unlikely to offer him no-trade protection.  Of course, they could get creative like they did in the case of Greinke.  If the former Angel is traded, he can opt-out of his contract at the end of that season.
  • At today's introductory press conference, Greinke explained that he kept in touch with the Angels throughout the offseason but the two sides never got to talking about contract details, tweets Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.
  • General Manager Ned Colletti said the Dodgers are probably done spending, more or less, according to Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
  • Colletti also said that there was a 24-hour lull in the talks with Greinke, which made the club nervous for a short time, tweets Scott Miller of CBSSports.com.
  • Greinke said that the Angels' number one selling point was the chance to play alongside Mike Trout for the next six years, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
  • The Rockies have made it clear since the end of the season that they are not shopping Michael Cuddyer, but they have to listen as they look to acquire more pitching, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post.  The Phillies and Yankees could both use a corner outfielder and Renck says the situation is worth monitoring.

NL West Notes: Greinke, Dodgers, Padres

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The defending World Series champions play in the NL West, but the Giants are not the ones making the biggest headlines. Here’s the latest from the division, starting in Los Angeles…

  • Barring something unexpected, the Dodgers are finished in the starting pitching market according to Olney (on Twitter).
  • Zack Greinke signed for $147MM over six years, and he could earn even more money by opting out three seasons from now, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains. The Dodgers awarded Greinke the opt-out as a compromise, as the right-hander initially sought a seven-year deal with a no-trade clause, Rosenthal reports.
  • One evaluator told ESPN.com's Buster Olney that the Giants are still a better team than the Dodgers despite Los Angeles' aggressive spending. The Dodgers have questions on the left side of the infield and might be vulnerable against left-handed pitching, Olney writes.
  • The Dodgers have discussed Kevin Youkilis and Anibal Sanchez, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports. Sanchez may be more of a longshot given the Dodgers' internal rotation options. The team appears to have interest in dealing Aaron Harang, but Chris Capuano has drawn more trade interest, Knobler reports.
  • The Dodgers have talked to the Pirates about Capuano, ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports (on Twitter).
  • Rosenthal wonders if the Padres could be a fit for Edwin Jackson, but concludes that San Diego probably won’t sign the free agent right-hander if he’s positioned to command a four or five-year deal (Twitter links). Padres executives Josh Byrnes and A.J. Hinch previously worked with Jackson in Arizona.

Dodgers To Sign Zack Greinke

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Zack Greinke is headed back to Los Angeles, but he won't be re-signing with the Angels. The Dodgers announced today that they have signed the free agent right-hander. He'll obtain a six-year contract worth $147MM from the Dodgers, according Gina Miller of TXA21 (Twitter links). Greinke is represented by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management.

Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio has the contract breakdown (on Twitter). Greinke will receive a $12MM signing bonus with a $17MM salary in 2013, $24MM in 2014, $23MM in 2015, $24MM in 2016, $23MM in 2017, and $24MM in 2018. Bowden reports (on Twitter) that Greinke did not receive a no-trade clause with the contract. Greinke has a full player opt-out clause after the third year of the deal, Bowden reports (via Twitter).  Furthermore, if Greinke is traded during the course of the contract he can opt out at end of year.

Because he was traded at midseason, Greinke was not eligible to receive a qualifying offer and will not require draft pick compensation. The Dodgers don't surrender a pick and the Angels don't obtain one.

Uspw_6497586Greinke, 29, was the free agent market's top pitcher and top overall player according to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes. The Angels and Rangers were among his suitors. The 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner pitched to a 3.48 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 212 1/3 innings split between the Brewers and Angels in 2012, his fourth 200+ inning season in the last five years. Tim predicted Greinke would re-sign with the Halos. Check out where you rank in our Free Agent Prediction Contest.

Greinke's deal smashes Matt Cain's record for the largest contract given to a right-handed pitcher in baseball history. Cain signed a five-year, $112.5MM pact with the Giants earlier this year. Greinke's contract is comparable to the six-year, $144MM deal given to Cole Hamels by the Phillies this summer. It's worth noting that neither Cain nor Hamels were free agents at the time of their deals. Greinke's $24.5MM average annual value is the new record for a pitcher on a multi-year contract, surpassing CC Sabathia's $24.4MM average annual salary with the Yankees.

The Dodgers have become baseball's biggest spender since Guggenheim Baseball Management purchased the team from Frank McCourt for more than $2 billion back in March. They absorbed over $300MM in payroll obligation in July and August alone, most of which came from their blockbuster with the Red Sox. Los Angeles will become the first ever NL team with a $200MM+ payroll this year and they figure to boast the largest payroll in MLB history. They will also be the second team ever with four players making $20MM+ annually (Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp).

With Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano, and Aaron Harang already under contract, the Dodgers figure to trade one and possibly two starters before Spring Training. Both Harang and Capuano have been on the block this winter. Greinke's contract figures to have a direct impact on Kershaw, who is scheduled to become a free agent after 2014 and is in line for a massive nine-figure contract of his own.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links) helped break the news while Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times, and MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reported the two sides were close to a deal. Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Zack Greinke Signing Reaction

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Zack Greinke's record-setting six-year, $147MM contract with the Dodgers will have a ripple effect throughout baseball. MLB.com's Peter Gammons lists five things to watch for in the aftermath of Greinke's signing including what kind of deal will Casey Close, who represents both Greinke and his new teammate Clayton Kershaw, be able to negotiate for the young left-hander. Other aftershocks include:

  • The Rays may be in a better position to deal one of their starting pitchers, as their value should be enhanced in talks with the Rangers, Royals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, or whichever other teams are interested, according to the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin. 
  • After losing out on Greinke, the Rangers will turn their attention to R.A. Dickey, James Shields, and possibly Anibal Sanchez, writes Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com. 
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters, including T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com, "We'd like to add to our starting depth and we'd like to acquire an impact guy. But we're not casting a wide net to add a starter at any cost."
  • The Tigers are affected both short-term and long-term, opines MLB.com's Jason Beck. Short-term, the Tigers could benefit because the Greinke signing should take the Dodgers out of the bidding for Sanchez and no other suitor for the right-hander has such superior financial resources. Long-term, potential contract extensions for Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer (represented by SFX and Scott Boras, respectively, according to MLBTR's Agency Database) could become much more expensive. 
  • Earlier today, we learned how one executive believes the entire economic landscape of the game is going to change drastically because of the Dodgers' spending. And, the Greinke signing will not allay those fears.
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