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Adam Dunn

Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam Dunn

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The Nationals and Adam Dunn went back-and-forth about a contract extension pretty much all season, though the outfielder turned first baseman eventually hit he free agent market for the second time in his career and is free to join with any club now. Let's look at where his stock stands…

The Good

  • Dunn has mammoth power, a skill that is becoming increasingly more difficult to find. He hit 38 homers in 2010 for the second straight year, and his 282 big flies since the start of the 2004 season are the second most in baseball behind Albert Pujols (294).
  • He's also an on-base machine, drawing at least 100 walks in six of the last seven years and in seven of the last nine.
  • Listed at 6-foot-6 and 285 lbs., Dunn is supremely durable. He's played in 1,108 of 1,134 possible games from 2004 through 2010, and his only career DL trip came back in 2003, when he missed 44 days with a sprained thumb.

The Bad

  • All of that power comes with the trade-off of high strike out totals. Dunn's struck out no fewer than 164 times in each of the last seven years.
  • Dunn's on-base percentage dropped to .356 in 2010, his lowest mark since 2003. That's the result of just 77 walks compared to his usual 100+, though given his track record and age (31) it could be a fluke.
  • A lefty swinger, Dunn has a considerable platoon split. Left-handers held him to a .719 OPS this season (.965 vs. RHP).
  • Regardless of where he is on the field – outfield or first base – he's a liability defensively, one of the very worst in the game. Dunn has also indicated that he doesn't want to be a designated hitter, limiting his market if true.
  • Dunn is a Type-A free agent and it's likely that the Nationals will offer him salary arbitration. Any team that signs him (other than Washington) will have to surrender a high draft pick.

The Verdict

Dunn is one of the best players available this winter, ranking fifth on Tim Dierkes' list of the top 50 free agents. He rejected Washington's three-year contract extension offer, so clearly he's looking to secure the long-term contract he wasn't able to land two years ago. 

It's easy to envision a power bat like this fitting into every lineup in baseball, but only few have the resources to sign Dunn. The Cubs are expected to have interest given their first base opening, but be sure that the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, and others will be rumored land spots at some point this offseason.

Odds & Ends: Royals, Pena, Alderson, De La Rosa

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Happy 133rd birthday to Archie "Moonlight" Graham.  Arguably baseball's most famous one-game player (Eddie Gaedel also has a great case for this distinction), Moonlight Graham's only taste of the majors was one half-inning as a defensive replacement for the 1905 New York Giants.  That half-inning grew into immortality thanks to his characterization in W.P. Kinsella's novel Shoeless Joe and its film adaptation Field Of Dreams.  Graham, who passed away in 1965, went on to become a doctor in Chisholm, Minnesota following his brief playing career.

Onto some news items…

Rizzo Talks Nationals First Base Outlook

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For a six minute segment, Nationals Mike Rizzo provided a lot of good hot stove insight to Kevin Kennedy and Jim Duquette on MLB Network/Sirius XM Radio today.  We've got Rizzo's full thoughts on Cliff Lee here, but here's what else he had to say:

  • Asked about Adam Dunn, Rizzo began his answer by talking about how the Nationals believe "championship teams are built on pitching, defense, speed, and athleticism" – none of which Dunn is known for.  The extended comments about the team's philosophy seemed to be prepping fans for Dunn's departure, but then Rizzo added, "We love Adam Dunn.  We've certainly had interest throughout the year, and he's a guy that we continue to have communications with."
  • Asked about other first base options, Rizzo replied that it's a good year to be looking, with several viable options out there.  He added, "As always, we're looking for a guy that plays both sides of the ball, that can produce offensively and play good defense for us also."
  • Fittingly, Kennedy then recommended Carlos Pena.  Rizzo commented, "We've been Carlos Pena guys here.  He fits what we're doing. He's one of a handful of guys that would give us what we're looking for."  However, Rizzo then reiterated the the team remains in communication with Dunn, adding "He's been our first choice all along."  Pena certainly fits Rizzo's description, while James Loney and Derrek Lee might too. 
  • Rizzo spoke again about his desire to improve the depth and quality of his rotation, whether via free agency or trade.  He noted that he'd like to improve the bullpen as well.

Nationals Offered Dunn Three-Year Deal

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The Nationals have had a three-year contract offer on the table to Adam Dunn for the last three months, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Now that the Nats' exclusivity window has closed, Dunn is free to negotiate with any club, but it doesn't appear that the Nats will add the fourth year that the slugger is seeking. A person "familiar with Dunn's thinking" tells Ladson that there's less than a 50/50 chance the first baseman returns to Washington.

Reports throughout the year have gone back and forth on the likelihood of Dunn playing for the Nats in 2011. In August, it appeared certain he was headed for the open market, while in September, Dunn seemed optimistic about working something out with the team. Now, it appears that the length of the deal is the primary sticking point.

Ladson says not to expect the Nationals to wait too long on Dunn now that they're allowed to negotiate with other free agents. There are other first base options that interest the club, including Carlos Pena, Aubrey Huff, and Adam LaRoche, so they won't want to miss out on the opportunity to pursue those players.

Chicago Rumors: Dunn, Fukudome, Rasmus, Quentin

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Let's round up the latest from the Windy City in one post. First up, Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune with the latest on the Cubs…

  • The Cubbies will not go overboard with their free agent spending because they vow to decrease payroll, so GM Jim Hendry needs to get creative to placate the fan base.
  • First base is the team's first priority and they'd like to acquire a lefty bat, so Adam Dunn is a popular target. If they can't afford him, they could turn to Aubrey Huff or Victor Martinez.
  • The Cubs might need to trade Kosuke Fukudome before signing any free agents, which won't be easy since he's owed $13.5MM in 2011. Hendry did find a taker for Milton Bradley last offseason though, so you never know.
  • Starting pitching is also on the team's wishlist. Jon Garland could be one option after hinting at being interested in pitching for the Cubs last offseason.
  • They would also like to add a veteran reliever to take some pressure off their young kids, but it's unclear if Kerry Wood will take a pay cut and assume a lesser role to return to the Cubs.

Now we'll head to the south side with Mark Gonzales of The Chicago Tribune…

  • The White Sox already have $80.4MM committed to just 13 players for next season, and that doesn't include what is likely to be a sizable arbitration raise for John Danks. That puts them in a bit of bind when it comes to adding a left-handed bat.
  • They don't match up with the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus, who they're said to be targeting, though a trade is probably the route they'll have to go to add a bat.
  • GM Kenny Williams could try to fill several holes by trading one player, which he did when he sent Javier Vazquez to the Braves and Nick Swisher to the Yankees two years ago. He could use one of excess starters, perhaps Edwin Jackson or Gavin Floyd. That last part is just my speculation though.
  • The ChiSox also need to determine whether Carlos Quentin can return to his 2008 level, or if injuries will continue to take a toll.
  • They could look to make trades soon, then examine the pool of non-tenders for affordable relief help.

Giants Notes: Sandoval, Huff, Uribe, Burrell, Crawford

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It's been less than a week since the Giants were crowned World Champions, but GM Brian Sabean has already started to act on his offseason agenda. Here's the latest from San Francisco, courtesy of Andrew Baggarly of The Mercury News…

  • Sabean was very explicit in saying that Pablo Sandoval will be sent to the minors next year if he doesn't improve his conditioning. Kung Fu Panda will spend the winter with fitness and nutrition experts in San Diego before reporting to Spring Training a month early. He will have benchmarks to meet this offseason.
  • Sabean has reached out to the agents for Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe, and although he acknowledged that both players are priorities, he couldn't commit to bringing them back. The market could play out very favorably for those two.
  • The team is currently discussing Pat Burrell internally, who would be brought back in a reserve role if anything. Remember that the Giants will have Mark DeRosa and his righty bat back from injury next season.
  • Sabean's priority is to get more left-handed, and when asked about Carl Crawford, he responded "We'll see. That's the best answer I can give you."
  • Sabean also said that he's still upset about being portrayed as a suitor for CC Sabathia two offseasons ago, claiming he never met with the player or his representatives. "[W]e do not want to be somebody’s fallback or stalking horse to be used as leverage," said the game's longest-tenured GM.
  • Baggarly doesn't think the Giants will be serious players for Jayson Werth, and their desire to get more athletic could take them out of Adam Dunn sweepstakes.
  • The team's payroll is expected to eclipse the $100MM mark for the first time, and Sabean wouldn't commit to offering arbitration to all eight of his eligible players. He is interested in bringing them all back, however.
  • It almost goes without saying, but Sabean is hopeful that the World Series victory will make San Francisco a more desirable landing spot for free agents. 

Odds & Ends: Indians, Jeter, Ellis, Giants, Chen

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Happy 92nd birthday to one of baseball's all-time great pitchers, Bob Feller.  "Rapid Robert" piled up 266 wins and 2581 strikeouts in his Hall of Fame career.  In tribute to Feller, it's only appropriate that we start this batch of news items with something from Cleveland…

  • Infielder Drew Sutton is eligible for free agency after being outrighted to Triple-A by the Indians, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  The article notes that Andy Marte is expected to be removed from the Cleveland roster before the Rule 5 draft deadline.  Also from Hoynes (via Twitter), the Phillies claimed shortstop Carlos Rivero on waivers from the Tribe.  Rivero has a .676 OPS in 2156 minor league plate appearances, none above the Double-A level.
  • Hal Steinbrenner's recent comments about the Derek Jeter talks strike ESPN's Buster Olney "as if he's preparing the NYY fans for an ugly Jeter negotiation" (Twitter link).
  • Now that the A's have exercised Mark Ellis' option for 2011, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that the team will look into an extension for the veteran second baseman.
  • Buster Posey and Brian Wilson are the key reasons why the Giants have a chance to win another World Series, says Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com.  "How many teams can say, right now, they have zero interest in upgrading at the need-to-have positions of catcher or closer?", Morosi asks.  He cites just the Phillies and Twins, and even those two clubs come with question marks.
  • Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com thinks the Giants should sign Eric Chavez to a minor-league contract.  (Twitter link)
  • Bruce Chen wants a multiyear deal but the Royals are "unlikely" to make the left-hander such an offer, tweets The Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton.
  • It could be a bad omen for David Ortiz's $12.5MM option that another slugging DH (Vladimir Guerrero) had his $9MM option for 2011 declined by Texas earlier today, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.
  • Tampa Bay added Elliot Johnson to its 40-man roster, tweets Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.  Without the move, Johnson would've become a free agent.  Johnson had a breakout minor league campaign in Triple-A last season, posting a .319/.375/.475 line and winning the International League MVP award.
  • In response to a fan mailbag question about Adam Dunn, MLB.com's Bill Ladson warns about the dangers of the Nationals offering a long-term deal to a defensively-challenged slugger.  He points out how fans were also wishing the Nats signed Alfonso Soriano to an extension, but in hindsight Washington made the right move.
  • Nationals right-hander Collin Balester is looking for members to join his 'Movember' team.  Click here to sign up and join Balester in raising money and awareness in the fight against prostate cancer.

Odds & Ends: Wood, Dunn, Valentine, Hoover

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Links for Thursday, before the Rangers try to even out the World Series…

  • The Cubs would welcome Kerry Wood back to Chicago if they have enough money, according to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com. The Yankees declined Wood's 2011 option yesterday, so he'll be free to sign with the team of his choice soon after the World Series.
  • Nationals manager Jim Riggleman says he wants Adam Dunn to re-sign in Washington, but points out that "there's going to be some pretty good talent out there" if Dunn leaves, according to Ben Goessling of MASNSports (on Twitter).
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel hears that the Brewers are open to hiring managerial candidates Bob Melvin and Joey Cora, though they’ll likely talk to Bobby Valentine about a potential deal (Twitter link).
  • The Phillies outrighted Paul Hoover off of their 40-man roster.
  • Former Braves and Orioles pitching coach Leo Mazzone told Gary Williams and Steve Phillips of SIRIUS XM radio that he’d have interest in becoming the pitching coach for the Yankees or Mets.

Sosnick On Bruce, Willingham, Nolasco, Dunn

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Agent Matt Sosnick appeared on the Diamond Hoggers' Baseball Show today, and spoke at length about how he became involved in baseball, his experiences in the sport, and a few of his clients. Here are the highlights from the discussion, which you can listen to here:

  • Jay Bruce is open to signing a long-term contract with the Reds. "If the Reds felt the same way," Sosnick said. "We'd be open to doing something that was five or six years."
  • Sosnick acknowledged that locking up Joey Votto would likely be a higher priority for the club, but cited deals signed by Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki as potential starting points for a Bruce extension.
  • As we heard earlier today, Josh Willingham is interested in signing an extension with the Nationals. Sosnick feels that if Willingham were hitting the open market this winter, the 31-year-old could land a multi-year deal worth $10MM annually.
  • According to Sosnick, when the Giants made a push for Willingham, the Nats asked for either Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner in return.
  • Regarding a possible Ricky Nolasco extension, Sosnick says he and the Marlins agreed on the years, but were off by "about 20%" on salary. The two sides will resume extension talks in November or December, working on a one-year deal in the meantime.
  • Adam Dunn is not a Sosnick client, but the agent predicts that Dunn will receive about $40MM for three years this offseason.

Odds & Ends: Greinke, Marlins, McGwire, Daniels

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As Cliff Lee continues his domination of the Yankees, here's some news from around baseball…

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