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Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians face major decisions in center field and in the rotation this offseason. GM Chris Antonetti begins the winter with the expectation that payroll will rise following a promising 2011 season.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Grady Sizemore, OF: $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout (no Elias ranking)
  • Fausto Carmona, SP: $7MM club option (would be arbitration eligible if Indians decline option)

Free Agents

The Indians' offseason begins with a pair of difficult decisions for GM Chris Antonetti. Cleveland has options for Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona, two of the club's longest tenured players. Neither one is guaranteed to return in 2012 and the Indians' decisions regarding the pair will shape the rest of their offseason.

The Indians have a $7MM option for Carmona, who would be arbitration eligible if the team declines the option. MLBTR projects Carmona would earn about $7.8MM if the Indians declined his option and went to arbitration with him, so it's the option or nothing in 2012. 

Carmona doesn't strike many opponents out — Indians starters as a group placed 27th in MLB in strikeout rate — but there were some positives in 2011. He pitched 188 2/3 innings and though his 5.25 ERA wasn't pretty, his xFIP of 4.17 and SIERA of 4.18 suggest his ugly ERA may have been due to bad luck. Carmona had a 54.8% ground ball rate in 2011, so he could have trade value to teams in homer-friendly parks, like the Rockies, Rangers and Yankees, even if the Indians pick up his option and guarantee him a $7MM salary. I expect Cleveland to pick the option up and given how difficult it is to obtain starting pitching, that decision would be justifiable.

Regardless of how the Indians handle Carmona's option, they'll probably pursue starting pitching depth. Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin will lead the rotation, possibly with Carmona. David Huff, Zach McAllister and Jeanmar Gomez provide manager Manny Acta with internal alternatives and Antonetti will likely add an arm or two from outside of the organization.

Sizemore's knees have limited him to 104 total games in the past two seasons, so exercising his $9MM club option ($500K buyout) would be a bet on Sizemore's health. Why would a small-market team even consider such a gamble? From 2005-08, Sizemore combined power, speed and on-base skills as one of baseball's premier center fielders. When he's healthy, he's a force, but the Indians don't seem confortable paying him $9MM in 2012.

Sizemore offers more offensive upside than free agent alternatives such as Rick Ankiel, Cody Ross and former Indians center fielder Coco Crisp. The Indians already have 24-year-old Michael Brantley, who posted a .702 OPS in 114 games and spent considerable time in center field. Rookie Ezequiel Carrera played 55 games in center, but had an OPS of just .613. If the Indians decide to pursue experience and certainty in center field and are unimpressed by the available free agents, they could turn to trade targets such as Angel Pagan and B.J. Upton. 

The Indians may pursue corner outfielders, regardless of how they handle Sizemore's option. Right-handed hitting outfielders such as Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer could appeal to the team. Sizemore, Brantley, Carrera and Shin-Soo Choo all bat from the left side and the Indians lineup also includes three other left-handed hitting regulars, so they may pursue right-handed hitting outfielders if possible. One such player, Matt Murton, hit .311/.339/.423 in Japan in 2011 and could be available this offseason. He just turned 30 and boasts a .788 OPS as a Major Leaguer, so Antonetti may decide to offer an incentive-based deal should Murton become available.

Jim Thome intends to play in 2012 and though he made a triumphant return to Cleveland in 2011, a new deal seems unlikely, since the Indians already have a left-handed hitting designated hitter in Travis Hafner.

First base presents more uncertainty for the Indians. Carlos Santana is a regular contributor, but Matt LaPorta hasn't produced enough at the plate in two-plus seasons and Shelley Duncan probably isn't an everyday first baseman. The Indians could pursue free agents such as Casey Kotchman if they're losing confidence in LaPorta as their primary option at first.

Second baseman Jason Kipnis and third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall have the minor league pedigree LaPorta boasted a few seasons ago. They'll enter the 2012 season with a chance to build on the successes of their rookie seasons. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Cord Phelps is another homegrown option on the infield and the versatile Jack Hannahan is also under team control.

The Indians have just $17.7MM in guaranteed contracts for 2012, but that figure will rise to the $40MM range if the club retains all of its arbitration eligible players, as expected. If the Indians pick up the options for Sizemore and Carmona, payroll would be over $55MM before accounting for minimum salary players or potential acquisitions. Antonetti says he expects the Indians to exceed this year's $49MM payroll and accommodating both Sizemore and Carmona without a substantial increase would be difficult.

Joe Smith, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Vinnie Pestano will return to a bullpen that will mostly remain intact. Closer Chris Perez struggled down the stretch after making his first All-Star team, so he'll look to pitch as effectively as he did in 2010. Nick Hagadone, the 25-year-old southpaw who came to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal, posted a 3.35 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 at Triple-A before making nine appearances as a September callup. He could be ready for a season-long stint in the Indians' 2012 bullpen and while there's no guarantee he'll replicate his minor league success, he deserves a shot.

Once the option decisions have been finalized and free agency has slowed down, Antonetti could explore extensions for Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera is closer to free agency than Santana, so the Indians would likely prioritize an extension for their shortstop. It's unlikely agent Scott Boras would encourage an extension for Choo, whose bargaining power dipped after a frustrating season.

Antonetti's first offseason as the Indians' GM led to an extended playoff run. They'll enter the 2012 season with elevated expectations and, if the winter goes according to plan, depth in the rotation and answers in the outfield.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants want to determine the long-term futures of their top starting pitchers, and support them in 2012 with improved offense at shortstop or in the outfield. 

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Giants won a World Series in 2010 based on great pitching, despite a middling offense.  The following offseason GM Brian Sabean was not aggressive in pursuing upgrades, and the Giants' offense had little margin for error heading into the 2011 season.  Huff and Torres declined markedly this year, while Sandoval and Buster Posey suffered critical injuries.  The result was the worst offense in the National League, despite solid midseason additions of Beltran and Keppinger.

It's natural to think Sabean adds a couple of offensive-minded position players this winter, but payroll constraints could get in the way.  The team's payroll is expected to remain around $125MM, and the Giants have an expensive and large arbitration class.  Lincecum, Sanchez, and Sandoval could total nearly $30MM.  Non-tendering or trading other arbitration eligibles like Torres and Fontenot won't make a big difference.  Sabean spoke in September about Jonathan Sanchez as a viable candidate for the fifth starter job, but trading him could create much-needed payroll flexibility.  Keppinger is another movable piece, if the Giants feel Freddy Sanchez will be healthy for 2012.  Declining Affeldt's option or exercising it and trading the lefty could clear some payroll space, but Sabean expects the reliever back next year.  Lopez may depart for greener pastures, but he's worthy of an arbitration offer, enabling the Giants to acquire a supplemental draft pick.

Sabean's initial offseason focus is clear, as he told reporters, "Our pitching’s going to get expensive, that’s the punch line and we have to take care of that first."  Cain is locked in at $15MM next year, but it's clear Sabean views extending him as a pressing concern.  Any years added beyond 2012 will surely be north of $15MM, so Cain's situation affects the Giants' ability to sign big multiyear free agent deals. 

Lincecum's salary is an unknown, but with a historic arbitration case on the horizon, the Giants can expect $18-20MM for 2012.  Lincecum's 2013 salary projects as even more, and knocking a few million off per year with a multiyear deal would create cost certainty.  If Lincecum drives a hard bargain, his two arbitration years might cost the team $40MM as part of a multiyear deal.  Adding another six free agent years at $22MM per season would result in a contract worth more than $170MM, the largest ever for a pitcher.  I'm not sure the Giants should take that plunge. 

The Giants are interested in re-signing Beltran, and you have to wonder if there is an element of saving face since they surrendered top prospect Zack Wheeler for a couple months of Beltran in the July trade.  Sabean's comments imply a greater focus on a leadoff hitter/center fielder.  Coco Crisp would probably require a two-year deal, and he posted just a .314 on-base percentage this year.  Grady Sizemore and David DeJesus are one-year deal options, though their ability to play center field every day is in question.  The best free agent fit might be Jimmy Rollins, an Oakland native who could fill the team's shortstop and leadoff void while also improving the defense.  The idea of signing Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols seems silly, having discussed the Giants' payroll and priorities.

The Giants project to have at least one more year of elite pitching, so it's up to the game's longest-tenured GM to assemble a passable offense.  Sabean appears to be up against budget limitations, though he has mentioned the possibility of asking ownership for additional money toward adding a specific player.  That request makes sense, with the window on Cain and Lincecum potentially closing.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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Look for the Reds to be active on the trade market, as GM Walt Jocketty decides whether to use his trade chips and limited payroll flexibility on a front-of-the-rotation starter or a middle-of-the-order bat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Reds had a strong offense again in 2011, but were unable to muster the needed support from their starting pitching.  GM Walt Jocketty continues to face limited payroll flexibility, especially if he retains certain veterans.  Jocketty's own situation was resolved in September, when ownership extended him through 2014.

There's little doubt Phillips will return in 2012, though the second baseman has indicated he'd be insulted if the Reds merely pick up his option rather than extend him.  That's just talk, though — Phillips would have no basis to demand a trade, and if his performance drops off significantly it will affect his free agent payday.  An extension could help the Reds in the short-term by potentially reducing Phillips' 2012 salary, though he's said there will be no "homeboy hookup."  If Dan Uggla's contract is a guide, the Reds should be prepared to pay Phillips $13MM annually or else move on. 

Keeping one of the game's best second basemen makes sense, but hopefully, Jocketty keeps the price down on a potential two-year deal to retain Cordero.  The 36-year-old became a low-strikeout groundball pitcher this year.  The transformation was effective in 2011, but the Reds can't afford to commit $5MM a year for two more seasons of Cordero.  That'd be placing a premium on the save statistic, a market inefficiency the Reds should avoid.  

If the Reds have an $83MM payroll next year and retain Phillips for $12MM and Cordero for $5MM, that'd leave only $7MM in flexibility before considering minimum salary players.  The Reds could free up payroll by trading disappointing arbitration eligible players like Masset, Volquez, or Bailey, but they all project affordably at around $2MM each.  

In September, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote the Reds' number one goal is to add a middle-of-the-order hitter at left field, third base, shortstop, or center field.  The Reds have solid incumbents at each spot, led by Alonso, Rolen, Zack Cozart, and Drew Stubbs.  Grady Sizemore could be an interesting free agent target, otherwise, those are tough positions to fill with affordable middle-of-the-order bats through any means.

The rotation is another big need, one Jocketty tried to address by checking in on Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields at the trade deadline.  The Reds are deep in fourth and fifth starter types, said pitching coach Bryan Price in September, but they need a number two type at the front.  The Reds have starters with good stuff, but their most dynamic young pitchers seem unlikely to rack up 200 innings.  Chapman will probably get a look, but he's a wild card if there ever was one. 

The Reds have trade bait all over the place with their depth at catcher, interesting young starters, and promising position players in Alonso and Chris Heisey.  Alonso is a first baseman by trade, but he's penciled in as a left fielder due to Votto's presence.  If Alonso's big league debut this year was any indication, they're not going to find a better bat on the trade market.  Perhaps a Votto trade will make sense a year from now and Alonso can play left field until then.  The problem is the Reds can't acquire a front-rotation starter like Shields without starting their offer with Devin Mesoraco or Alonso.  The Reds could match up well with the White Sox, who may listen on Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Carlos Quentin.

The Reds are likely to lose a top offensive catcher in Hernandez, but Mesoraco appears as one of few catching prospects able to replace his bat.  An arbitration offer is probably in order for Hernandez, a Type A free agent.

The Reds' offense should remain strong, especially if they get more out of Stubbs or Rolen next year.  Jocketty's big challenge is trading for an affordable front-line starter, especially since top chips Mesoraco and Alonso are penciled in for important roles next year.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers have openings at second base, the back of the rotation and in the bullpen, but the AL Central champions' core will return in 2012.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Jose Valverde, RP: $9MM club option, no buyout (Type A Elias ranking)

Free Agents

There was a lot to like about the 2011 Tigers team. Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Avila were among the best in baseball at their respective positions, Detroit won 95 regular season games and they defeated the Yankees in the Division Series. For the Tigers to return to the postseason in 2012, they'll have to address questions on the infield and add depth to the pitching staff.

If the Tigers retain all of their arbitration eligible players except non-tender candidate Brad Thomas and exercise Jose Valverde's option, as expected, they'll have nearly $100MM in commitments for next year, not including minimum salary players. Nine-figure payrolls are nothing new to the Tigers. They’ve spent more than $100MM in payroll each of the past four seasons, averaging $123MM since 2008. After spending $107MM in 2011 and making a run to the ALCS, it wouldn't be surprising if owner Mike Ilitch boosts payroll. Expect GM Dave Dombrowski to have the cash he needs to address the Tigers' weaknesses.

Manager Jim Leyland got by without an everyday second baseman in 2011. He mixed and matched Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Carlos Guillen and others, without relying on any one player for more than 62 games at the position. Santiago and Guillen both hit free agency this offseason, which leaves the Tigers with a clear vacancy.

Jamey Carroll, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson are among the offseason's top available second basemen. Since the free agent market doesn't offer much, the Tigers will likely explore trades for alternatives. Blake DeWitt, Orlando Hudson, Maicer Izturis and Alberto Callaspo are among the second base trade targets for Dombrowski to consider. All four players will have new GMs this offseason, and though that doesn't mean they'll be on the block, it could make them easier to obtain. It will take some creativity for the Tigers to obtain an above-average second baseman given the current options at the position. If Dombrowski doesn't like the market at second base, he could sign a shortstop to play second or simply re-sign Santiago and focus on the left side of the infield.

The team could also use help at third base, as Wilson Betemit hits free agency and Brandon Inge doesn't provide enough offense for the position. The Tigers, never a team to shy away from top free agents, could pursue Aramis Ramirez. He'd keep Inge on the bench and add offense to a team that finished fourth in MLB in runs scored. Signing Ramirez would likely require a two or three-year commitment given the relatively weak class of free agent third basemen. It won't cost a draft pick, though, and 19-year-old prospect Nick Castellanos is not MLB-ready. The Tigers could be tempted to sign Jose Reyes and move Jhonny Peralta back to third base, but an acquisition at second or third seems more likely.

There's been speculation that the Tigers could pursue top free agent starters, such as C.C. Sabathia and Yu Darvish. While a starter of their caliber would no doubt improve the Tigers' rotation, it's not clear whether Dombrowski has serious interest in adding a top pitcher from the free agent market. The rotation, which includes right-handers Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, only has one opening. Brad Penny will likely depart via free agency and Phil Coke figures to stay in the bullpen, but the Tigers could give 2009 first rounder Jacob Turner an extended look in the rotation. The 20-year-old struggled through three MLB starts this year, but posted a 3.44 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 131 innings in the upper minors. If the Tigers don't add a top free agent starter, they will likely add an affordable arm or two to compete with Turner and Andy Oliver and provide depth in case of an injury.

Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth and Al Alburquerque figure to contribute to the Tigers' bullpen in 2012. Free agent Joel Zumaya could return on a minor league deal after missing the entire season with a right elbow injury. With so many holdovers, there may be concern about the 2011 bullpen's walk rate of 4.4 BB/9 — the highest among MLB 'pens. The Tigers will probably add at least one reliever this offseason to supplement the existing group.

The Magglio Ordonez era may be finished in Detroit, since the Tigers have younger, more affordable options who lack Ordonez’s health concerns. Austin Jackson has solidified his place in center field, Brennan Boesch posted a .799 OPS before tearing a thumb tendon in September, and Raburn and Don Kelly provide Leyland with depth. Delmon Young, who seemed destined for a non-tender with the Twins, probably earned himself an arbitration offer from the Tigers due to a strong finish. He hit eight home runs in the final six weeks of the regular season and added five more homers in the playoffs.

The Tigers have six free agents, including three Type B players, but they won't necessarily have extra draft picks in 2012. The risk that Zumaya and Ordonez would accept arbitration likely outweighs the possible reward of the supplemental pick. Betemit could be the lone candidate for an arbitration offer. He earned just $1MM in 2011 while posting a .795 OPS, so the downside of offering arbitration seems minimal. If he accepts, he's back on an affordable one-year deal, and if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Tigers get a draft pick. However, the Tigers already have Inge and Kelly under team control, so they may decide against carrying three third base options.

Alex Avila emerged as one of the game's top catchers this season, hitting 19 homers and posting a .295/.389/.506 line. Victor Martinez's knees prevented him from catching after August 4th, but he has said he can catch again in 2012. The Tigers will probably still want a third option behind the plate to reduce their reliance on Martinez's knees.

The Tigers may consider extensions for Avila and Jackson this offseason, though both are four seasons away from free agency. There's no rush to lock either player up.

Big name free agents such as Darvish and Reyes could have appeal for the Tigers, but Detroit's most pressing offseason need exists at second base. If Dombrowski can obtain a second baseman and add depth to his pitching staff, the Tigers will enter the 2012 season as favorites to repeat in the AL Central.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers' ownership battle may be coming to a close, but Ned Colletti must endure uncertainty for one more offseason as he tries to improve the team's offense and sign a veteran starter.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

Dodgers fans hope the end is in sight for the battle over ownership of their team.  The bankruptcy hearings begin on Halloween, as current Dodgers owner Frank McCourt seeks the ability to auction the team's television rights while Fox and MLB seek termination of McCourt's ownership.  Josh Fisher of Dodger Divorce said selling the TV rights is McCourt's only path to survival as the team's owner.  The hearings will certainly keep Fisher and the L.A. Times' Bill Shaikin busy, but there are still crucial player personnel decisions to make for the Dodgers this offseason.

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said he has a basic idea of the team's budget.  In September, he said his aim is improving the offense in "the most dramatic way," implying Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder could be targets.  I just can't see the ownership situation resolved quickly enough for that to happen, though.  Even if MLB does force the sale of the Dodgers, it'd take months to get new ownership approved.  In the interim, it seems unrealistic for MLB to approve adding a massive amount of debt.

It'll be costly just for Colletti to resolve the Dodgers' internal business.  Out of 209 arbitration eligible players, Kemp's settlement projects as the second-highest salary, Ethier's the fifth-highest, and Kershaw's the ninth-highest.  Unless their salaries are reduced through multiyear deals, the trio could cost $35MM next year.  If payroll is cautiously trimmed to say, $100MM for 2012, the Dodgers will have less than $20MM to work with to fill all kinds of holes.

Extensions for potential award winners Kershaw and Kemp should be Colletti's primary focus.  We've seen top pitchers extended for about $30MM, but Kershaw might need $35MM just for his three arbitration years, and that might be a discount over going year-to-year.  I think we'd be entering the $100MM range for a six year deal, which is incredible given that three of those would be arbitration years.  Kemp's 2011 season could be under $15MM in a multiyear deal, but each season thereafter should cost at least $20MM.  There's no harm in Colletti laying groundwork now for either player, but ideally a prospective new owner would have final say in March.  Kemp does not want to negotiate once his potential contract year begins.    

A non-tender decision is due on Loney on December 12th, and one more season at around $6.5MM is the right move for the Dodgers.  If they somehow later sign Pujols or Fielder, they could probably move Loney's contract before the season begins.  Uribe is penciled in at third base and Dee Gordon at shortstop, leaving an opening at second.  An offensive-minded player like Kelly Johnson could be a good fit over internal options Justin Sellers and Ivan DeJesus.  Jerry Sands merits an extended look in left field, while Tim Federowicz and A.J. Ellis will probably sit behind the dish.  Gwynn and Rivera could return as bench players.

The Dodgers' rotation could be a strength again, especially if Kuroda is re-signed.  It'd be difficult to replace Kuroda without overpaying someone else on a multiyear deal, though Colletti could look to other starters coming over from Japan.  Nathan Eovaldi would be the fifth starter.  Colletti likes his bullpen, but he'll look to add a veteran reliever.  

Kelly Johnson alone wouldn't fix the Dodgers' offense, though decent seasons from Ethier, Uribe, and Sands would help.  Hopefully, the Dodgers' ownership situation becomes resolved by July.  If the team is in contention at that point, Colletti can explore the trade market.  The Dodgers' 2011-12 offseason will be overshadowed by the Frank McCourt drama, perhaps for the last time.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees' offseason is all about their search for starting pitching, though they'll look to add bench help and a second left-handed reliever as well.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • C.C. Sabathia, SP: can opt out of four years and $92MM remaining on current deal (Type A) 
  • Nick Swisher, OF: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout (Type A) 
  • Robinson Cano, 2B: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout (Type A) 
  • Rafael Soriano, RP: $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout (Type A)

Free Agents

The success of the Yankees' offseason hinges on Brian Cashman's ability to build a strong rotation. Low-risk signings such as Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon helped the Yankees reach the postseason again in 2011, but Cashman will pursue bigger names this offseason. His starting point? A 97-win team that was among the best in baseball at scoring and preventing runs.

Before the offseason starts in earnest, Cashman himself must sign a new contract. Once the sides sign the deal — it could happen within the week — Cashman will continue addressing the Yankees' needs.

C.C. Sabathia will be a top target for the Yankees and it makes sense for them to pursue free agents C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish along with the best starters on the trade market. The Yankees are rarely outbid for a player they truly want, so their chances of retaining Sabathia seem good (Sabathia's former teammate, Cliff Lee, is the exception to prove the rule).

Retaining Sabathia will require an extended commitment in terms of years and dollars and the Yankees have some concerns about the left-hander's weight, but his numbers are tremendous. He has averaged more than 230 innings since joining the Bronx Bombers three seasons ago, with a 3.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in that stretch. FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement suggests Sabathia has been baseball's fourth-best pitcher since signing his current contract. He's going to get paid and if the Yankees want him, they must be prepared to spend, even if they're wary of having too many aging stars on the team a few years from now.

Darvish is an intriguing possibility because the Yankees need starting pitching and they have the resources to outbid the 29 other clubs. The last time the Yankees invested in a Japanese pitcher it didn't work out, but Kei Igawa's failure should push the Yankees to better understand the transition across the Pacific, not to shy away from Japanese pitchers with significantly greater upside than Igawa. If the Yankees are still negotiating with Sabathia when bids for Darvish are due, they'll have to place their bid at a time of great uncertainty.

Wilson, who posted a 2.94 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 223 1/3 regular season innings for the Rangers before struggling in the playoffs, remains an appealing free agent option. He will cost a top draft pick and may not be a proven ace at the level of Sabathia and Lee, but Wilson stands out as one of the top options available. Edwin Jackson and Hiroki Kuroda are among the free agent alternatives to Wilson, but Jackson has been inconsistent and Kuroda appears to prefer Los Angeles to other possible destinations.

Presently, the Yankees' rotation consists of Ivan Nova and A.J. Burnett. They may also count on Phil Hughes, but he will need to stay healthy and return to his 2010 form, manager Joe Girardi said. Otherwise, they'll need multiple starters this offseason, assuming they're not ready to turn starting roles over to Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos just yet. They could bring Garcia back to fill out the rotation, but another deal for Colon seems unlikely after he faded in the second half. Garcia, the Yankees' lone ranked free agent, could obtain an offer of arbitration if the Yankees are prepared to offer him a roster spot in 2012. Even if the Yankees aren't interested in bringing Garcia back, they could set up a handshake agreement and obtain the extra pick.

The Yankees could pursue John Danks, Ricky Nolasco, Wandy Rodriguez and others if they become available on the trade market. In the unlikely event that Seattle takes offers for Felix Hernandez, the Yankees will call.

If the Yankees turn to the trade market for pitching, Jesus Montero's name figures to come up constantly. Cashman has held onto Montero for this long and the powerful backstop is now ready for the Major Leagues, so a trade seems unlikely. However, the Yankees have a wealth of catching depth behind Russell Martin and could consider parting with Austin Romine or Francisco Cervelli.

Longtime backstop Jorge Posada probably won't return after 22 years and five World Series titles with the Yankees organization. Montero will collect some of Posada's plate appearances at designated hitter and Girardi will rotate established players such as Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter into the DH role when they need rest. Red Sox fans probably don't have to lose too much sleep over the possibility of David Ortiz coming back to haunt them in pinstripes.

The rest of the Yankees' lineup is essentially set for 2012, assuming they exercise Nick Swisher's option. There's no question that Robinson Cano's option will be exercised. The Yankees broke their own rules to extend Cano four offseasons ago, so they could consider another extension with the Scott Boras client. Curtis Granderson, who is also under team control through 2013, would be an extension candidate on most teams, but the Yankees will likely abide by team policy and wait until he hits the open market to start negotiating.

The rest of Cashman's offseason will consist of finding a second left-hander for the bullpen and finalizing the bench. Andruw Jones could return as a fourth outfielder and right-handed bench bat. Eric Chavez also appears to be a fit for a bench job, if he decides against retirement.

The Yankees won 97 games without a dominant rotation, so they know as well as any team that it can be done. But if Cashman's offseason goes according to plan, his top acquisitions won't be working under minor league contracts or battling for jobs in Spring Training. They'll be established pitchers who seem capable of leading the Yankees to their 17th playoff appearance in the last 18 years.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays will work within their budget in an attempt to boost their offense, but they don’t intend to sacrifice run prevention along the way.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Kelly Shoppach, C: $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout (no Elias ranking)
  • Kyle Farnsworth, RP: $3.3MM club option with a $650K buyout (Type A)
  • James Shields, SP: $7.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout (Type A)

Free Agents

Andrew Friedman realizes the Rays' offense could be better and he'd like to improve it. But it's not as simple as adding a couple of sluggers. If improving the offense means sacrificing pitching and defense, the Rays may well pass.

The Rays may hold onto their starting pitching depth instead of peddling arms for a power hitting first baseman or DH, even though such restraint would disappoint their possible trade partners. After the Rays were eliminated from the playoffs in early October, Friedman said starting pitching depth is "everything" for his team. His statement won’t prevent other clubs from calling about Tampa's starters, but the success of Matt Moore and Alex Cobb doesn't make James Shields, Jeff Niemann, David Price, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson expendable — far from it. Injuries can strike unexpectedly and the Rays can't afford elite free agent pitchers, so they depend on their ability to develop arms.

This doesn't mean they'll be as quiet on the trade market as they were this summer, however. They could be tempted by an offer for a starter, as they were last offseason when they sent Matt Garza to the Cubs. Perhaps B.J. Upton, the subject of countless trade rumors over the years, will finally be dealt. He boosted his trade value by posting a 1.038 OPS over the course of an impressive final month and would be sure to draw interest if he's available. If the Rays trade Upton, they could move Desmond Jennings to center field and start searching for a left fielder (assuming they view Sam Fuld as a fourth outfielder).

The Rays, who don't operate with a traditional set payroll, will probably exceed the $42MM they committed to the 2011 club. If they pick up the options for Shields and Farnsworth, as expected, and retain all arbitration eligible players other than non-tender candidates J.P. Howell and Andy Sonnanstine, they'll have committed roughly $44MM, not including minimum salary players. The Rays drew fewer fans than every American League team except the Athletics and owner Stuart Sternberg says the Rays' current stadium situation is "untenable as a model going forward," so it's hard to imagine much of a payroll boost.

Despite these fiscal restraints, this offseason could be less daunting than last winter. At least the Rays won't have to watch their division rivals snap up their best players, as they did a year ago when the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford and the Yankees picked up Rafael Soriano. Meanwhile, replacing Juan Cruz will seem easy after seeing six relievers depart last year. The Rays will add an reliever or two, but the emergence of Brandon Gomes and Jake McGee means Friedman won't face another bullpen overhaul.

As usual, the Rays will build through trades and modest free agent signings while ignoring the top free agent attractions. Their clearest positional weaknesses exist at first base, designated hitter and catcher. Rays backstops combined for a .607 OPS (27th in MLB), so there's room for improvement behind the plate. At $3.2MM, the team will likely decline Kelly Shoppach's option, but they like his defense enough that they could try to re-sign him. They could also pursue a trade for a catcher, such as Chris Iannetta, or hope Robinson Chirinos and Jose Lobaton can adjust to MLB pitching and produce the way they did in the minors. I wonder if the Rays could envision a situation where Jorge Posada joins them as a part-time catcher and designated hitter against right-handers (as Joel Sherman has suggested).

Free agents Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman could return in 2012. If Kotchman's strong all-around season prices him out of the Rays' budget, they may have to wait until late in the winter and hope to repeat their success with another low-risk deal. The Rays also figure to express interest in affordable first basemen and designated hitters in trade talks.

The Rays strike early when they're interested in extending a player. Price, however, is heading for unchartered territory in arbitration (along with Clayton Kershaw) and seems too expensive for the Rays to keep around long-term. They do have other extension candidates this offseason and while there's no rush to extend Hellickson or Jennings, the Rays are aggressive when it comes to locking up core players early in their careers. Agent Scott Boras would likely advise against a long-term deal for Jennings if it meant capping his earning potential and/or providing Tampa Bay with multiple team options.

Beating the payroll odds is becoming an artform for the low-budget Rays. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira will combine to out-earn the Tampa Bay roster on their own next year. Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford won't be far behind. Yet the Rays have three postseason berths in the past four seasons — as many as the Yankees and one more than the Red Sox — despite the discrepancy. But unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, the Rays have never won it all. To compete for a title again next year they'll need another successful offseason. Friedman and his front office must find a first baseman and a designated hitter, sort out their catching situation and tinker with the bullpen, all while weighing the risks and benefits of pulling the trigger on a trade.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates have money to spend this offseason, but their team has more holes than free agency can possibly fill.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

  • Paul Maholm, unranked SP: $9.75MM club option with a $750K buyout
  • Chris Snyder, Type B catcher: $6.75MM club option with a $750K buyout
  • Ryan Doumit, Type B catcher: $7.25MM club option for 2012 and $8.25MM club option for 2013 with a $500K buyout
  • Ronny Cedeno, unranked SS: $3MM club option with a $200K buyout

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Pirates hired GM Neal Huntington in November 2007, and this year we finally saw light at the end of the tunnel.  The team won 72 games for the first time since '04, and was enough of a contender to justify acquiring Lee and Ludwick while taking on their salaries.  In September, the Pirates rewarded Huntington with a three-year extension that included a club option for 2015.

Huntington's first order of business will be making decisions on the options of Maholm, Snyder, Doumit, and Cedeno.  Snyder and Doumit are easy choices to decline.  Maholm's $9MM net price seemingly doesn't work for the Pirates, but they can check with other teams before making that decision official.  Just by virtue of his ability to play shortstop for 130 games Cedeno is worth $2.8MM in a technical sense, but the Pirates might prefer to use those starts in an attempt to find a long-term answer.  The safe move would be to pick up Cedeno's option but leave the starting job as an open competition.

Look for the Pirates to make more cuts at the non-tender deadline, with Pearce, Wood, and Ohlendorf on the bubble.  The five arbitration eligible Pirates relievers figure to stay, so the team's bullpen is in good shape for 2012. 

The Pirates have four favorites for the rotation, though the group features a low-strikeout trio of Karstens, Correia, and Morton after James McDonald.  SI's Jon Heyman says the team is looking for starting pitching.  I'd expect another stopgap acquisition like Correia.  The Pirates need bulk innings after their rotation provided the fewest in the National League in 2011.

The Pirates' search for a short-term first base solution led to $5MM spent on Overbay and a few million more on Lee.  The team has interest in signing Lee, otherwise Huntington can look into Casey Kotchman, James Loney, or outside-the-box options like Raul Ibanez or Josh Willingham.

Questions don't stop there:  the Pirates have needs at catcher, third base, and right field.  Huntington will likely be thinking short-term at catcher, so maybe someone like Ramon Hernandez or Rod Barajas could draw the Pirates' interest.  A new, more affordable contract for Snyder would also work.  Michael McKenry and Jason Jaramillo are internal options.

The Pirates hope Alvarez can shake off his awful season, and again, they won't be adding any big names at his position.  Right field is likely to be handled internally, as Alex Presley has earned a shot and Jones may still be in the mix.  The Pirates have money to spend and needs to fill, but I'm still not sure free agency offers much for them.  They could afford Jose Reyes or Prince Fielder, but the best remaining years of those prime free agents will not coincide with the Pirates' window of contention.

The importance of Huntington's tinkering pales in comparison to the importance of locking up Andrew McCutchen.  The center fielder has a case for a six-year deal in excess of $50MM.  Additionally, the Pirates also have interest in locking up Neil Walker, though that would be a much smaller, team-friendly type of deal.

The first two-thirds of the Pirates' season was different and fun, and it resulted in a 20% increase in attendance.  Otherwise, the playoff bid didn't change much, as the team faded well before the stretch-run and is still is years away from transforming into a serious threat.  The team is still trying to get to .500 for the first time since 1992, though I don't think .500 should be any kind of goal.  Huntington has expressed a willingness to trade prospects, but I'm guessing he'd only do so to fill a long-term need.  It's taken too long, but he's building the team the right way.  It would be a shame to see hard draft slotting instituted, as it would severely limit the Pirates' best route to sustained success.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Expect the White Sox to consider trading established players as they retool for manager Robin Ventura's rookie season in 2012.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Going all-in didn't work out for the White Sox. After spending $127MM on a team that won just 79 games and trading their manager, the White Sox intend to ease up this offseason. Reality has set in, replacing the optimism of a year ago, but GM Kenny Williams says the team isn't going into rebuilding mode. With players like Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Jake Peavy on the books, Chicago's going to retool instead.

It appears the White Sox will consider trading Carlos Quentin, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. They could use an infusion of talent. The White Sox, who opened the 2011 season with the 27th-ranked farm system in the game, according to Baseball America, spent less on this summer's amateur draft than any other team.

Interest in Quentin, a free agent after 2012, would likely be strong. Teams such as the Rockies, Mariners, A's, Braves, Twins and Orioles could have interest in the outfielder, who has averaged 27 homers per season with an .857 OPS since 2008. Though both Floyd and Danks will earn $7MM or more next year, they would draw heavy interest trade market. They're under 30, have been steady producers for years and wouldn't require the same financial commitment as C.J. Wilson or other free agents.

The White Sox could let Mark Buehrle walk. Few pitchers match his durability — he has surpassed 200 innings in each of his 11 seasons in the rotation — but the White Sox could turn to younger, cheaper options like Chris Sale and Zach Stewart instead. Assuming the White Sox offer Buehrle arbitration, they'll collect a compensatory draft pick for losing the Type B free agent.

Juan Pierre, another Type B free agent, probably doesn't fit into Chicago's long-term plans. He told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune he doesn't expect the White Sox to place him high on their list of offseason priorities. Even if the White Sox trade Quentin, they have outfielders in Viciedo, Rios and Alejandro de Aza, so Pierre will likely depart without an offer of arbitration. Free agent backups Omar Vizquel and Ramon Castro will probably leave as well, though they aren't tied to compensation picks.

Last offseason's Adam Dunn deal soured in a hurry, so it's possible the White Sox will take a backseat to this year's free agent frenzy. This would mean relying on relatively unproven players like de Aza, Viciedo, Stewart, Sale and Brent Morel and could mean more responsibility for Tyler Flowers, Brent Lillibridge and Addison Reed. If the White Sox are prepared to go younger, as they've suggested, this offseason could be a quiet one in terms of free agent signings.

Like most teams, the White Sox will likely add a reliever or two over the course of the offseason, not that there's much urgency when it comes to Chicago's 'pen. Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain, Will Ohman and newly extended closer Sergio Santos provide Ventura with four reliable arms. The White Sox also hold a $3.75MM option for Jason Frasor, a Type B free agent. The Illinois native struggled through 20 appearances in Chicago, so Williams may decide to decline the option without offering arbitration and rely on a more affordable reliever, such as Reed. It's possible that Frasor has some trade value to a team looking for relievers. The club could decline the option and offer arbitration, keeping Frasor if he accepts and obtaining a pick if he declines.

The White Sox have already committed $90MM to next year's team, without accounting for Danks, Quentin or minimum salary players. Dunn and Rios aren't going anywhere, so the White Sox are stuck with their bloated contracts, clinging to hope that the former stars will rebound. They could stay in the AL Central race next year if enough goes their way, but if they do it probably won't be because of high-profile offseason acquisitions.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels, soon to be under new leadership, will look to add a minimum of one starting pitcher, improve their offense and tinker with their bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Angels' new general manager will face challenges, as every GM does, but no organizational overhaul is required in Anaheim. Even after missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season, the Angels have many above-average players and the payroll to keep them in place. The Los Angeles front office can build on 2011's 86-win team by pursuing starting pitching, considering bullpen upgrades and finding a way to improve the offense.

The Angels have already committed over $100MM to next year's payroll and if they bring back their arbitration eligible players, payroll will rise to $120MM before accounting for those earning the minimum salary. This would give Tony Reagins' replacement a little more than $20MM to work with, assuming owner Arte Moreno is willing to match last year's $142MM payroll.

In other words, the Angels could conceivably bid on an elite free agent like Jose Reyes or Prince Fielder. But in an offseason that features above-average free agents at shortstop and first base, the Angels are set at both positions (Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis, Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales). In theory, the Angels could trade Aybar — he'd have many suitors — and sign Reyes or Jimmy Rollins. There has even been some talk of moving Trumbo from first base to third. Don't count on a major free agent signing.

The team may get a power-hitting first baseman from within. Morales has been sidelined with a left ankle injury since an ill-fated walk-off celebration a year and a half ago and the Angels can no longer count on him to be a force in their lineup. If he does return, they'll have seven players (Morales, Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Mike Trout) for five spots. 

The Angels could option Trout, Baseball America's 2011 minor league player of the year, to the minors at the beginning of next season. The benefit, aside from clearing space in the Major Leagues, would be delaying Trout's arrival on the free agent market by a year. If the Angels are happy to let Trout develop in the minors until mid-June, they could control his rights for an extra season seven years from now.

Howie Kendrick, a free agent after 2012, is an extension candidate this offseason. He posted a .285/.338/.464 line and appeared in 140 games, including 20 or more at three different positions (first, second and left). Bourjos, meanwhile, probably needs more time to prove himself if he’s going to land a long-term deal, even after a tremendous first full season.

Kendrick, Trumbo, Erick Aybar and Alberto Callaspo give the Angels a quartet of solid everyday infielders and Maicer Izturis is a capable reserve. While Callaspo offers less power than most third basemen, his .366 on-base percentage could be enough to prevent the Angels' next GM from bidding heavily on Aramis Ramirez. However, if the Angels want to add power, Ramirez is a fit. He's easily the best free agent option at his position and the Angels have more established players than Callaspo at the other traditional power positions.

The Angels face a dilemma behind the plate. Jeff Mathis posted a .174/.225/.259 line while sharing catching duties with Hank Conger and Bobby Wilson. Only the Twins and Astros, baseball's two worst teams, had their catchers combine for a lower OPS than the Angels' .555. But manager Mike Scioscia admires Mathis’ glovework and the skipper's endorsement resonates, since he spent 1,395 Major League games behind the plate himself. Mathis is a non-tender candidate given his projected $1.8MM salary and the team's cheaper, more offensively capable alternatives. If the Angels don’t expect Conger to hit as well as he did in the minors, they could go outside of the organization for catching depth. It’s one of the primary weaknesses of an offense that the Angels should look to improve over the winter.

Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana will occupy the top three spots in the rotation for the next two years, giving the Angels one of the top rotations in the game. Like every MLB team, they have internal candidates for the back of the rotation. But the Angels' chances of unseating the American League champion Rangers would be better if they had more at the back of their rotation than Jerome Williams, Trevor Bell, Tyler Chatwood and Garrett Richards. It appears Joel Pineiro will sign elsewhere as a free agent and the Angels may attempt to sign a replacement. California native C.C. Sabathia would give the Angels one of the best rotations in baseball, though he seems to favor the Bronx.

Last offseason the Angels spent on the bullpen, signing free agent lefties Hisanori Takahashi and Scott Downs to multiyear deals. It's unlikely the Angels will make a similar splash this offseason, even though rookie closer Jordan Walden blew a league-leading ten saves in an otherwise strong season. Rich Thompson, Walden, Downs and Takahashi provide Scioscia with four solid late-inning options and the club's new GM will likely mix in new pieces for depth and competition.

The Rangers have established themselves as the team to beat in the AL West. But the Angels can compete with Texas in 2012 if their new GM improves the rotation and finds a way to infuse offense into a lineup that will remain mostly intact from last year.

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