The Reds are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Jose Arredondo, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish
- Second time: Edinson Volquez, Jared Burton, Bill Bray
- Third time: Nick Masset
I see Burton as the most likely non-tender candidate, though he projects for only $900K. The 30-year-old righty missed most of the season due to a shoulder issue.
Many of the remaining arbitration eligibles disappointed in 2011, but will probably be tendered contracts. A projected salary rundown: Masset ($2.4MM), Volquez ($2.3MM), Bailey ($1.8MM), Arredondo ($1MM), Janish ($800K). Janish seems the most likely of this group to be non-tendered, but I think his defense and low salary will save him. The Reds could trim payroll by trading a few of these players though.
If Masset, Volquez, Bailey, Arredondo, and Janish are retained, the cost should be around $8.3MM. Excluding buyouts for Francisco Cordero and Brandon Phillips, the Reds have $50.558MM in 2012 contractual commitments according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. The five arbitration eligibles would bring them to about $59MM before minimum salary players are considered, which is about $22MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll of $81MM. GM Walt Jocketty expects to bump up payroll a little, but the majority of the surplus will probably go to Phillips and Cordero.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
I don’t know about Volquez. I agree they likely won’t just let him loose and get nothing in return, but I also don’t think I would count on him being a consistent starter and he would be a slightly expensive long man in the bullpen (or even worse, pitching in AAA). They could trade him, I’ll bet a team like the Padres would love a shot at him, but they would be selling low.
yeah they should trade volquez. I don’t think he can work in cincinatti anymore
Have to add 5-6 million for players that could be making league minimum in there automatically. Its just not a Reds off season until they spend around 8% of payroll on dead weight that they wont release because of sunk cost.
So about $60M if they resign those guys
Cordero & Reds were working on a new deal at last report … it won’t be anywhere near the $12M he made last year … more like $5-6M. If they can get Phillips to accept a 3 year deal at the going rate for 2Bers, it would reduce that $12M option they are planning on picking up … if not, they can trade him at the deadline. They need to steer away from that deal the Braves gave Uggla … I love BP, but he is on the wrong side of 30. So they could reasonably be looking at $10-15M to spend if the payroll is bumped to $85M
I don’t see Cordero agreeing to less than 7-8M … could be wrong but I don’t see it.
Phillips has shown no signs of slowing down, only things that have declined are home runs and stolen bases. Guys don’t steal as many bases when they get older… but he’s still as solid as they come, everything else is consistent… he traded power numbers for average… and RBI / Runs depends on where he’s hitting in the lineup. I would like to see a 4-5 year deal with 1-2 option years attached.
I think that is a bad deal tbh when you look at how other players entering their 30s compared with their rate of decline in the post steroid era. The 1st two years might look fine but more often than not, the last 2-3 years of the deal leave the team looking dumb for committing that much dough to a player in decline. I am all for a 3 year deal with a 4th year option … but history tells me its an option that won’t likely be picked up
As for Coco … if he wants that much per year … I’d let him walk. A small market team just can’t afford so many big contracts and still fill out their rosters. I’d rather just take the $12M in savings from his contract coming off the books and use some of the additional cap space to go out and trade for a top notch starting pitcher
Found my post from another blog…
Brandon Phillips has been a steady starter only since he became a Red.
2006: .276 /.324 / .427 – 65 R 17 HR 75 RBI 25 SB 2 CS 35 BB 88 SO
2007: .288 / .331 / .485 – 107 R 30 HR 94 RBI 32 SB 8 CS 33 BB 109 SO
2008: .261 / .312 / .442 – 80 R 21 HR 78 RBI 23 SB 10 CS 39 BB 93 SO
2009: .276 / .329 / .447 – 78 R 20 HR 98 RBI 25 SB 9 CS 44 BB 75 SO
2010: .275 / .332 / .430 – 100 R 18 HR 59 RBI 16 SB 12 CS 46 BB 83 SO
2011: .294 / .346 / .452 – 89 18 HR 81 RBI 11 SB 8 CS 41 BB 81 SO
A line of .279 / .330 / .448 as a full time starter
Averaging: 87 R 21 HR 81 RBI 22 SB 8 CS 40 BB 88 SO
The only thing on the decline is SB. Plus the
fact that he’s has been becoming a rather good situational hitter.
Now… The HR numbers would be down had it not been for last week, but
he traded the power for Average.
The RBI total from 2010 was down
because he was primarily in the #2 slot, thus less opportunities… and
the increased runs scored.
*edit: this was done a few weeks into September… so his 2011 numbers aren’t up to date…
Thanks for the stat info.. appreciate it. I think they are going to have to pay the guy if they want to keep him. I would like to see a 3 or 4 year deal max. Might cost us around 8 to 12 million a year I believe. hopefully not too much more than that. It would be hard to replace his numbers for that position though.
RBIs don’t matter, that’s a team stat not any indication of individual achievment and the SB vs caught stealing is awful. If you’re not above 75% you’re hurting your ballclub so the last two seasons he should not be running at all. The OBP is not great so he has to hit for a high average to be of value offensively and he did last season. Where he excels is power and defense, he is a very good defensive second baseman.
Its no coincidence that the best run producers and best hitters usually have the most RBI’s. Maybe not so much the case with a leadoff guy. But are we really going to completely disregard RBI? It isnt the most compelling statistic but still essential when evaluating a player.
Yes, too much noise for it to matter. There are so many variables outside a hitter’s control for RBIs to be a good judge of performance. What it really measures is how well hitters get on base in front of the so-called run producers.
The Reds have acted too much like a small market team with too much talent in the minors and not enough pitching in the majors. They need to make the right move and get a pitcher like Shields or they will find themselves once again in 3rd place in the central.
The Reds have acted too much like a small market team with too much talent in the minors and not enough pitching in the majors. They need to make the right move and get a pitcher like Shields or they will find themselves once again in 3rd place in the central.
I couldn’t agree more with Slider32. The key for the Reds in 2012 is the acquisition of a #1 starting pitcher. That’s what set up the Brewers when they got Greinke.