CBS Sports' Jon Heyman discussed how baseball reporting is evolving in the age of social media and a 24/7 news cycle (while giving MLB Trade Rumors a tip of the cap), joked about the infamous "mystery teams" that often dominate the rumor mill and also shared some hot stove chatter during his appearance on Jonah Keri's Grantland podcast. Here are some of the highlights…
- The Yankees have mostly stayed away from major trade deadline moves under Brian Cashman and Heyman suspects the team will largely stand pat this month. There are no glaring needs on the roster plus the first-place Yankees will get a boost from Brett Gardner's return from the DL.
- If the Yankees did make a move for pitching, Matt Garza would be at the top of their list. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are also interested in Garza, not to mention the Dodgers and Tigers, among other clubs.
- When the Diamondbacks toyed with putting Justin Upton on the trade market two years ago, they discussed a deal with the Red Sox that would have sent Upton to Boston in exchange for Jacoby Ellsbury and Daniel Bard.
- The Red Sox and Blue Jays have the same record but the Sox are "more fully invested" in contending this season, while Heyman thinks the Jays' pitching injuries may prevent from making a true push at the deadline.
- Heyman thinks Zack Greinke is a "longshot" to re-sign with the Brewers but the club will at least make him a long-term offer before exploring possible trades before the deadline. The Angels and Braves are two of the teams expected to be in on Greinke should Milwaukee make him available.
- Surprise contenders like the Mets, Orioles and Pirates will look to upgrade themselves for a pennant race, though Heyman thinks these teams are "probably all realistic about their chances" and won't sacrifice their rebuilding process by trading any of their blue chip prospects. The Mets are looking for a veteran bullpen arm, the Orioles a veteran starter and the Pirates a corner outfielder, such as Carlos Quentin or Josh Willingham if the Twins were to make him available.
- Beyond Greinke, Josh Hamilton, Cole Hamels and a few other notables like Michael Bourn or Melky Cabrera, Heyman feels this year's free agent crop is "not a star-studded class." The free agent market has been dimmed by the preponderance of teams who lock their young stars up to multiyear contracts early in their careers.
I’m tired of hearing Red Sox and buyers. They will be destroyed this month by that schedule. Then at the end of July we can finally hear about them selling like they should be in the first place.
Yeah!
Thanks Ms.Cleo! The Red Sox were 7 up with a few weeks to go and didnt make it so what makes you think 9.5 back half way through the season they cant make it. Oh yeah and there is also an extra playoff spot now…
Just ignore the schedule they’ve had. They beat up bad teams and were beaten by good teams. Then they had that terrible west coast swing.
Oh, and the injuries. The tough schedule coming up. Their pitchers crashing (Morales and Doubront were nice stories while it lasted).
It’s just reality. Accept it and hope they make smart decisions this off season.
When you collapse, one team has to pass you to make it happen. When you come back (something the Sox have historically never really done in any season), you have to leapfrog many teams. They will have to outplay Tampa, Toronto and Baltimore just to get into second in their own division (and even at full strength are probably still not as good as the Angels, so really, we’re talking about second place in the AL East for that last wild card spot).
It’s a lot easier to fall apart than it is to get so hot (they have shown no indication at any point this year they will) you make a playoff push. Not to mention, since the last week of August, 2011, the Boston Red Sox are playing 13 games under .500 with mostly the same roster. What indication to you besides name power implies they have the ability to make the playoffs and have any chance at anything?
The RS are much better than toronto or Baltimore. I see Baltimore more as a fluke, I really see them out of it by september, Toronto is decent, but with their starters down they need a quick fix or they will be out of it soon. The Questions comes down to can the sox outplay the Rays, and the White sox/Detroit. for the wildcard slot.
If they get pedroia, Ellsbury, Bucholz, Crawford, and Bailey, all back soon I definetely think they can make noise. Can they make the playoffs, who knows. But if they get healthy they have a pretty good shot.
I agree that its easier to collapse than heat up. However, you completely dismiss the extra playoff spot. Toronto from what I have been hearing is selling so that really leaves Tampa and Baltimore. If you look at Baltimore’s team do you really think they can even keep up what they are doing? Tampa has a bunch of holes on their team too. Im not saying the Red Sox dont have holes because they have plenty. The offense has been great so far this year for them and all they need is more effective starting pitching. I’m looking for Lester to step up and pitch like everyone knows he can. Plus like Lazertown said below they are also getting back a bunch of guys from the DL. In a month they could be 4 games back if they play well.
Right, because it’s a poor idea to attempt to go for it when you’re getting last year’s MVP runner-up back to a team that’s 2.5GB and 5th in baseball in run differential.
Run differential is garbage here. They lose so many close games and they win random games here and there by like 6-7 runs.
This fan base is delusional. Between the false hope for the Red Sox and this silly notation that Ray Allen needed to come back and is a traitor, I can’t stand us.
“I can’t stand us”
Then go buy a pink Texas Rangers hat.
Sounds good. Do they play sweet caroline?
Because basketball-based arguments are anything other than ad hominem.
You sound like a fair weather fan
I love this argument too. Just because you are critical doesn’t mean you don’t love your team. I absolutely love this team.
What I can’t stand is how this team is made up, the ownership, and the manager. We have overpriced divas, mental midgets, and an ownership group marketing a terrible team.
Fair weather? Call me what you want. I want to cheer for the team I grew up watching. Not this garbage.
When Ellsbury learns how to pitch, you let me know.
excellent offenses without excellent pitching staffs cannot win
– the yankees
Did I say excellent? I meant more like better than 11th in the AL in runs allowed. You really want to try to compare?
sure. what would you like to compare it to? the 2004 red sox, who finished the season 14th in baseball (13th in the AL) in that category? the 2000 yankees, who were 12th in baseball?
how about something a little more recent – the 2009 yankees? 14th. how about the cardinals and rangers last year? 13th and 15th
it’s obvious that pitching is important. it’s also obvious that top starting pitching is not required to win it all, let alone to contend for the playoffs, which is what it being questioned here
runs scored count the same as runs allowed. for that reason getting ellsbury back will be just as significant as it would be if the staff led the league in RA
Also, let’s review run differential of those teams you mentioned too, since you said runs produced counts as much so Ellsbury is just as important.
2012 Red Sox: +43 (so on pace for +86? Is that fair?)
2011 Rangers:+178
2011 Cardinals: +70
2009 Yankees: +138
2004 Red Sox: +181
2000 Yankees:+57
So yes, of all the examples you listed, you’re saying the Red Sox can improve because they are on pace for a better run differential than the 87 win 2000 Yankees who were coming off back to back WS titles and had superior pitching, and the 2011 Cardinals, who much like the 2006 Cardinals, were one of the flukiest champions ever, were benefited by an epic collapse, had less teams to overcome and still had marginally better pitching than this year’s Sox.
Otherwise, I hope Ellsbury, in two months time, can be valuable enough to produce about a +60 or so run differential by himself, or maybe with the help of Carl Crawford and Andrew Bailey and their stunning AL East track records.
No idea why it deleted my first comment but your a little off in your findings.
2011 Rangers: 5th in AL runs allowed
2011 Cardinals: 9th in NL in runs allowed.
2009 Yankees: 5th in AL in runs allowed.
2004 Red Sox: Best in Al East and 4th in AL in runs allowed.
2000 Yankees:3rd in Al in runs allowed, one run behind the A’s for 2nd…Also, they ended the season on a 7 game losing streak having wrapped up the AL East in roughly May even with an 87 win total to win the division.
2012 Red Sox to date: 11TH in AL in runs allowed.
Your two closest comparisons are the 2000 Yankees and 2011 Cardinals. One reached the playoffs with 87 wins and a top 3 staff in the AL and the pedigree of back to back world championships and the other reached the playoffs the final day of the season only after a top three historic collapse from another team and overcoming just two teams to do it.
Good luck with that blue print.
You were saying?
except for the ’04 sox parenthetical, i wasn’t off at all. re-read the comment. you are just breaking those down by league and i didn’t
of course, the point here isn’t whether the ’12 red sox are likely world series winners, so your puffing about flukes & exceptions is wasted
the subject treated here is mere contention for the playoffs. there’s more than enough talent joining and already-on that roster to improve that differential significantly and keep them in the hunt
Wasn’t off at all? Your refute was comparing the pitching staffs to all of MLB. That means you were comparing them to the other league which has no relevance in qualifying for the playoffs in the NL. Your argument made no sense from the start so I made it relevant by comparing the teams you listed to the AL.
My initial argument was you need decent pitching to make the playoffs. The Red Sox are currently 11th in the AL in runs allowed. You said “no you don’t, look at all these teams”.
None of the teams you listed except the 2011 Cardinals were out of the top 5 in their league in runs allowed.
Your one argument is that one of the flukiest and luckiest teams to make the playoffs made it and so therefore the Red Sox have a good shot and even in that scenario the Sox ARE still in worse shape.
I switched arguments because you went from falsifying facts to talking about Ellsbury and scoring runs, so yes, that was your argument. And even in your argument, the 2012 Red Sox are still in bad shape because Ellsbury can only do so much as far as run differential in a two month span.
that summary is just made up and anyone can read the still-there comments to confirm it
boston’s run differential is already good (second in the AL East, since you’re so into league-specific rankings), so ellsbury doesn’t have to be a miracle man to put them in position to contend
there’s also the fact that he’s also not the only one returning
there’s also the fact that you can’t presume they’ll continue to be 11th in the AL in runs allowed
there are actually quite a few other facts here you’ve ignored. it’s not surprising, but it is worth calling out since you’re probably doing it on purpose
87 wins is almost definitely a wildcard spot.
Once the Red Sox have a wildcard spot, its a near-crapshoot from there.
ex. see; 2001 Yankees.
they didn’t win the WS, but they beat a team with a +200 RD and a +300 RD to get into the World Series with their petty +97 RD.
and anything can happen in a 7 game series.
That team had 87 wins by playing mostly crap in its own division that year. The Al East as presently constructed doesn’t have a 69 win Rays team in it, not to mention you really think 87 wins gets you one of the wildcards? The Tigers, Orioles, Blue Jays and Rays and I guess Indians and A’s all have a pretty good shot at getting around that number, and the Sox would have to go 44-31 in the second half, which is doable, but again, you need to play better than five other teams in the process.
Look, I’m not saying it’s impossible for the Sox to make the playoffs, that’s silly to say with 2.5 games separating them and the Orioles being the current leader. I am saying nothing has indicated they are going to be the team to outplay all the other teams or that even if they do get it it will indicate anything as far as success in the postseason. Nothing has indicated they are a legitimate contender and almost every team in contention has dealt with serious adversity or injuries right along with the Sox.
And you really are going to compare the 2001 Yankees to the 2012 Red Sox? They were coming off three consecutive titles, won 95 games in the regular season, and gave up the 3rd least amount of runs in the AL only behind Safeco and Oakland’s home ball parks. Enough with the comparisons. The Sox pitching is the culprit. It’s 11th in the AL, it’s not good and until it improves (which maybe it does with Bailey back, or Melancon/Bard stepping up, or Lester and Beckett magically turning their seasons around or Buchholz getting healthy) it is EXTREMELY unlikely the Sox make the playoffs let alone make a run. And if they don’t make a run this whole argument is moot.
and now you’re shifting the goalposts. had your claim been about run differential in the first place, you wouldn’t have heard anything from me. your comment was about runs allowed
now that you’ve been shown that runs allowed, by itself, is not a reliable predictor of future success, you’re reaching for differential
that’s a good thing to do, but you’re basically making my argument now, not yours
run differential has two components, after all: runs allowed and runs scored. and ellsbury doesn’t need to pitch to improve that differential, which is where this whole thing started
Sure helps with you generally have the best 8th/9th combo each year coming out of the pen and usually at least one stud pitching well.
That and the Red Sox offensively have been “meh” outside of Ortiz and the random streaks from Ross and Salty.
which is exactly why getting players like ellsbury and crawford back is important
So aside from two aces, a former MVP who’s a candidate again this year, two of the best CFs in baseball in Bourn and the unmentioned Victorino, and three #2 pitchers in Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Dempster, and Colby Lewis, it’s a pretty thin class.
Face, meet palm. You two have so much in common!
Agreed. This class looks as good as any on recent memory.
In general, there won’t be really big free agent markets going forward. Teams are extending the players that would have the most appeal on the market, aside from a few cases here and there.
No Boras clients = “not star studded” according to Jon Heyman. Is there a more transparent shill in the industry than this man?
Excellent point.
He’s nowhere near as transparent as Cellophane Man.
Should’ve clarified, I meant the baseball industry, not the food packaging industry.
Don’t be so sure. The teams they are chasing are just as bad. That 2nd wild card is going to the best bad team in the AL. And as future convict Schilling would say, why not us?
Can Schilling still pitch?
He may need to now that he’s broke
I feel the Indians could make a play for 3 years of Upton, rather than giving up the farm for 2 months of Quentin. Especially with how screwed up the cba is for traded players who will no longer net comp draft picks. The Upton deal must go around Lindor or Howard and Wolters and probably Monsalve as the center piece and add Barnes and another arm, then with the new tradeable regional compensation draft pick to get the deal done. though I would hate to move Lindor, 3 years of Upton would be worth it and he would have a good reason to wave his no trade clause.
I dont know. This would pretty much gut our already abysmal farm system (ranked #28 by BA). As much as I would like Upton in the lineup, after Masterson and Jimenez is currently just a bunch of question marks. Adding Grienke in the offseason would be great, although I can’t imagine Dolan opening up his wallet. Adding Grienke and Upton would be a great great addition.
Melky is a perfect fit for Camden yards and his OBP is exactly what the Os need atop the order with Markakis in the 2 spot. Wait for FA Orioles and go after Grienke and Melky and wait for Machado and Bundy to contend!