Two days ago we heard that the Cubs are letting teams know that almost all of their players — other than Jeff Samardzija and Starlin Castro — are available in trades. Chicago's north side will be a hot source of rumors over the next few weeks, so let's keep track of today's news here, with the latest up top…
- Contrary to spring rumors, the Cubs never had a handshake agreement with outfielder Jorge Soler, but their interest in the Cuban was legit and figures to intensify now that he's officially a free agent, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Manager Dale Sveum, who watched Soler workout this offseason, described his hitting as "pretty strong" today.
- Matt Garza is available for the right offer, reports ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter links). The Yankees have interest and Olney speculates that the Blue Jays could be a fit given their need for high-end starting pitching and cache of tradeable prospects.
- "If I'd known that, it would have made me think about it," said Castro to reporters (including Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune) when asked about the trade rumors. "That's what I want — to be here all my career. I don't want to go anywhere. I have my family here. I don't want to be traded."
Castro is going nowhere.
“i understand nothing”
– michael scott
The Blue Jays want in? Sorry Yankees, you’re not going to win this battle.
the Yankees can dangle banuelos and betances
So? If the offer doesn’t start with Sanchez and Williams, it won’t have a chance against anything the Jays will offer.
As I said all offseason, the Jays definitely have the best set of prospects to match up with Garza. The Yankees are most likely second.
People keep mentioning Detroit, but I would be quite appalled if we traded Garza for Turner- the most overrated, overhyped pitching prospect in all of baseball. His ceiling is barely a #2 IMO, and he does not, in any way, have plus stuff. No thanks.
It’d probably be based around Castellanos.
…who is much too raw and at too low of a level to be the single centerpiece of a deal for Garza. The Tigers simply do not have the pieces to make a package worth Garza.
2 years away is too raw?
The Blue Jays can easily beat anything the Yankees offer. But, I don’t think it’s likely that either team is the one to overpay for Garza at the deadline.
Agreed, although I do like Garza, I can’t see Toronto emptying the farm for a 3 month rental player. That would be a ‘put us over the top move’, and the Jays aren’t there yet.
Edit – didn’t realize he wasn’t a FA until after 2013. I still think he’d be an expensive luxury right now though.
Garza still has another full year. I still don’t think AA will find him to be worth the prospects it will require. If they’re in position to really make a run in July, you never know.
Think again. All teams “overpay” for pitching at the trade deadline. And if you get the Jays, Yanks ( who has the Cubs old GM working for them ) and Red Sox ( plus maybe the Dodgers and Tigers ) In a bidding war against each other then someone is going to overpay to the tune of 2 top tier and 2 second tier prospects. Cubs are looking for SP, C and 3rd for Top tier prospects and OF, RP for 2nd tier.
I say d’Arnaud, Syndergaard, Comer and Marisnick would get it done.
If by ‘get it done’ you mean ‘have the phone hung up on you’, I think you’re right. Not that Garza isn’t a proven commodity, I just don’t see Toronto giving up 3 of their top 5 prospects for him.
I would even take D’Arnaud, Syndergaard, Carreno and Sierra.
I’d say that’s closer to even. Sierra doesn’t get mentioned a lot but he has some interesting skills. Carreno could be good as a reliever. It would hurt my soul to see Syndergaard and d’Arnaud go, but in the right package everyone is fair game imho.
you trade d’arnaud and syndergaard for an ace, nothing less.
Matt Garza is a good pitcher but he’s not worth Travis D’Arnaud.
That’s not going to happen.
I know some team will overpay for Garza. That’s why I said….”But, I don’t think it’s likely that either team is the one to overpay for Garza at the deadline.”
In other words. Some team is going to do it. But I don’t think it will be the Yankees or Blue Jays, this year.
Yeah, it’s true. Also, Garza hasn’t really been doing the Cubs any favors the way he’s been pitching lately…
Those two are not going to net Garza, sorry. They are two of the more overrated pitching prospects going. Betances is 24 years old pitching at AAA and not really excelling. He projects as a bullpen arm. Banuelos may become an ace but he is no sure thing as he has been quite hittable at AAA. Why do all Yankee fans want the team to dangle those two instead of Williams, Austin or Sanchez? Beacause Yankee fans fear both pitchers sliding down the prospect scale and becoming both worthless at the big league level and untradable assets as prospects often become. Why don’t you look at what the Padres got for Latos. It’s going to take a similiar haul to get Garza so the Yankees likely won’t do it.
4 years of Latos (or Gio Gonzalez) is far different then 1.33 years of Matt Garza, not to mentin talent wise teams probably prefer the other two.
Looking back at some of Edwin Jackson’s deadline deals would probably serve as a better focal point. Latos & Gonzalez were much more desireable pieces for numerous reasons. You can ignore the value in extra years of control when you start spending other teams prospects, but it’s not going to bring you close to reality.
The best pitcher available at the deadline will get dealt for top prospects. Garza is that pitcher. 2 top prospects and 2 second tier prospects will be the final haul. ( 2 in the top 10 and the other two within the top 50. )
You’re not talking about top 10 in all of baseball, are you? If so, that’s laughable. If you mean a teams top 10, then you are leaving quite a wide range there.
Top 10 for each team. Not a wide range at all. 2 prospects out of a team’s top 10 and then 2 more prospects from range 11-50.
Yeah but they aren’t Montero so…. Meh
Either team can get him if they want to, it’s just a matter of how much they want to pay. Also, the Yankees go out and get their man with a trade or signing, Toronto just talks about it.
Theoretically, just about any team in the league can offer enough in a trade for most players, it’s just a matter of it being realistic for each team involved.
I wouldn’t say Toronto ‘just talks about it’ with respect to trades and signings. Possibly their fans and media do. The Toronto front office talks about nothing regarding trades or signings until after they are done. That’s partly why Anthopolous gets the ‘ninja’ and ‘silent assassin’ monikers. I have no doubt they’ll end up making a trade or two in the next month or so after the draft is done, but I would almost guarantee it’ll be for players you never thought of or knew were available.
They do make stealth trades, like the ones for Escobar and Rasums, but I was just referring to how AA seems to do an interview every few weeks talking about how much he wants to add a big bat or another arm for the rotation. And after a deal goes through, there is leaks about Toronto being in on the deal.
I understand he doesn’t want to get taken to the cleaners in a deal, but their team is pretty good right now and they should have the resources to go out and pick up a difference maker or two.
I think every GM in the game is looking to add a big bat and a front line starter. Nothing unusual there.
The Blue Jays package would be far superior to anything the Yankees could offer.
The two “prize” arms in the Yankees system were just proven to have been overrated.
Unless the Yankees are willing to damn well sell the farm, the quality of Jays prospects would be the wise choice over Yankees quantity.
Sanchez, Banuelos, and Campos would be a decent package.
D’Arnaud, Syndergaard, and one of Gose/Norris. would be better.
Whoever throws in that 4th high ceiling prospect probably gets Garza.
Or, we resign him based on a lack of arms in the system.
Either way, we should be stockpiling prospects. Hell, I’d actually consider trading Samardzjia if the price were right.
Anyone not named Castro, Jackson, Rizzo, Szczur should be dangled.
We had a really solid draft last year, lets take what we can from this weak draft and move forward.
Not sure how you can call a 21 year old overrated. I’m not saying he will be as good as many say, but he very well can be. You’re acting as if he’s at a very older age like in his mid to late 20’s. 21 is VERY young.
He IS very young. Don’t get me wrong, there still is a high upside. However, he’s projecting to be more of a #3 starter than a 1-2 starter as originally projected. If he comes to Chicago, I’d love to be proven wrong.
D’Arnaud, Syndergaard, and Gose/Norris? I wasn’t aware that the Cubs were dangling a future Cy Young winner. Good deal.
Don’t worry about it. Quality pitchers with successful playoff experience are sort of in demand down the stretch.
It’s not outlandish that someone overpays.
In fact, it’s pretty likely.
Not to mention, being in a bidding war within your own division-
Yeah, Garza is going to bring back a haul in return. That’s a fact.
Every story from now on mentioning Cubs rumors needs to have a footnote indicating Mat Garza is under team control for next season. Getting tired of reading comments of “I don’t think ____ will empty the farm for a half year rental on Garza”.
There is no way Garza brings back high ceiling prospects like Gose or D’arnaud.
you trade prospects like that for an ace, with a few years on a contract.. and while Garza is good, he’s no ace and will be a free agent in 1.5 years.
Garza hardly makes the jays a lock even for playoff contention let alone anything more than that. Losing prospects with ceilings like those 2 would be a tough pill to swallow at this point.
cubs didn’t have nearly as highly touted farm system as the jays, and didn’t give up any of their org top 5 prospects at the time of the trade. I don’t see why with less control and a deeper farm, he should all of a sudden bring back a top 5 prospect.
**edit, so i guess midseason rankings made lee, archer and guyer higher up, 4 guys ranked before them moved up or moved on
I’d offer Mcguire, Jenkins and Marisnick, it would probably be turned down, and then I’d move on.
Ummm. Baseball America had Archer 1st and Lee 4th in the Cub system at the time of the trade. I do think Garza will bring back at least one top prospect, but not two ot three.
Sickels had Lee 6th, and baseball america is really high on archer, other scouts we’re no where near as high.
but fine I’ll give you that. but the jays farm is still much better than the cubs was at the time. I’d just can’t see him bringing back a d’arnaud
tell me who any team could get in a trade that is better than Garza? That is an element you have to look at too. What other ace or solid #2 is out there to be had?
If the Cubs have the best starting pitcher available and don’t HAVE to trade him since he isn’t a free agent until after 2013 and they can still opt to sign him long term…they can ask for as much as they want and if a team won’t give it, they can say no.
Chris Archer was there #1 pitching prospect and #2 in the org at the time of the trade and Hak Jue Lee was a top 10 in the system.
Grienke.. Give Milwaukee another 2-3 weeks for reality to sink in.
exactly, and marcum, rodriguez
Grienke in Yankee Stadium? You think he can handle that mentally? KC and Milwaukee are a different animal than NY.
most of the large market teams are wary of how grienke will mentally handle the market. besides, it seems the brewers would rather add than subtract. while that may change, grienke is also a 3 month rental at this point since he IS a free agent after this year.
Garza has shown he can compete in the AL East and in the playoffs with the Rays. he will still have more value than grienke because of that and not being simply a rental.
Will agree that Garza is proven in the AL East. He always was tough on Boston, or at the trop at least vs them.
“most of the large market teams are wary of how grienke will mentally handle the market”
source?
“Garza has shown he can compete in the AL East”
at the level of a #3 starter. which is what he’s been pitching like so far in 2012, too. only once in his career – last year in the NL – has he pitched like a top of the rotation starter
but yeah, forget greinke. he can’t “mentally handle the market”
if you read traderumors all the time, just search grienke and you will see time and again all these insiders report the large market teams are wary of grienke because of his breakdown in KC a few years back. they don’t want to trade a couple of prospects for a guy they aren’t 100% sure about.
You can say Garza is a #3 but I ask again…who that is known to be available is actually better than him? At ths time, no one. I am again not convinced that the Brewers will trade Grienke anyway, so this arguement is pointless until he is actually made available.
One more note about Grienke…when he was sent to the Brewers there were several reports that the Yankees discussed aquiring him but felt he wasn’t a good fit for the market because of his breakdown.
i have no doubt that a lot of sports writers have speculated about greinke’s ability to “mentally handle” a large market. it’s an easy, intriguing, and thus very popular non sequitur
what i was looking for was a credible source establishing that specific large-market decision makers are wary of acquiring greinke for such a reason
to your second point: scarcity drives up prices, yes. but even in scarce markets there isn’t much precedent for a #3 starter bringing back a #1 package. someone might overpay, but it almost certainly won’t be to the extreme degree suggested here
search the grienke and yakees rumors from the off season before the 11 season when grienke went to the brewers. they talk specifically about the yankees including brian cashman being wary of grienke being able to mentally handle the large market in new york. No one with a club will specifically comment on another team’s player or their interest in trading for him or not. they also won’t be directly quoted as saying they want him or don’t want him. unless you have brian cashman’s cell phone number so you can speak with him directly, that is the best you can get…so your desire for a credible source is impossible based on your apparent criteria.
You also appear to be assuming he is headed back to the AL East. He could go anywhere so while you may evaluate Garza as a #3, others would see him as a #2 and a possible #1 on certain teams.
Since I have made no such “trade proposals” that are out of whack in your mind, I wonder why you feel the need to mention them to me.
The fact is, if 4, 5 or 6 teams engage in trade talks with the Cubs for Garza, it will drive up the price, whether he is a 1, 2 or 3 starter. just like a free agent who gets several teams bidding on him, the price will go up and someone will over pay.
taking those points from last to first:
– if your only claim here is “the price will go up because scarcity”, then there’s nothing to talk about. that’s obvious. but you made that point in a specific context, which was a conversation about the merits of ace-level trade packages for garza. the implication there is pretty obvious
– the “i didn’t make a proposal, so why are you mentioning them” thing is a tedious red herring. i didn’t
say you made a proposal and i didn’t attribute one to you. but since your very first comment in this exchange was, again, specifically in response to a post about how off-base ace-level proposals were, it’s just silly to suddenly act surprised that the conversation continues to refer back to them
– i haven’t assumed anything about the al east. you were the one who brought it up, actually; i quoted you. and the point i made then was that he was a #3 in the al easy and he’s pitched like a #3 this year – outside of it
in other words, claiming a team is acquiring a #3 doesn’t assume he’s being traded back to the al east; it only assumes that 2011 was a significant outlier. which it is
– i did find a heyman article that explicitly mentions cashman declining to pursue greinke because of makeup concerns. i think that’s a mistake, but it turns out you’re right that at least one large-market team is making it
We actually gave up our #1 in Archer, #4 in Hak-Ju Lee, and Guyer was tenth.
It would absolutely be an overpay.
You’re right, Garza isn’t an ace. But, he still has upside.
The Jays would absolutely get stuck overpaying, especially if they’re competing with the Yankees for Garza.
Personally, I’d like to see a ripe haul of prospects go from the Jays to the Cubs.
But if I were on the other side of that, I’d hold on to those cards, and continue to develop an even deeper core before contending in a short term scheme.
Marisnick, Syndergaard, Nicolino, and Snider for Garza. Probably too much but no reason to lowball the first counter.
I haven’t watched too many Cub games the last few years.. but when did Matt Garza turn in to Felix Hernandez ?
lol that trade proposal is absolutely ridiculous.
Did you even read my comment?
yes
Ok then.
I read it too. Take the best player out of that deal and it’s still a lot to expect AA to give up. He’s made a lot of trades but none like the ones being suggested here. My bet is if he does trade multiple top prospects in the same deal it’s going to involve someone with more value then Matt Garza. His value shouldn’t be on par (or better mind you) then it was two off-seasons ago when he still had three years of team control. When a player goes from the AL East to the NL Central you couldn’t probably subtract a half a run off a pitcher’s era and increase his strikeouts 15% or so before taking into consideration any improvements.
AA could always stand pat and let the farm develop.
But then again, the East is a much weaker division than usual.
The Jays may try and capitalize on that.
As much as you might not want your Jays giving up that much for a #2 guy let’s face it, teams have recently overpaid a ton for Frontline starters. Negotiations would probably start out with a deal similar to the one presented by “Vivid_Reality” and then talks would start to get more realistic.
if we take away just one season’s worth of data, there is literally no evidence anywhere that matt garza is a frontline starter. not even a #2
one season in the NL central doesn’t make a guy an ace. somebody might be dumb enough to give up a package like that, but it sure won’t be the guy in toronto
Why don’t you have the Jays throw on D’Arnaud so that it makes it more fair, because you know…Garza is the best pitcher in baseball?
Blue Jays would definitely win over the Yankees, but all depends on what AA is willing to give up
If AA never has the guts to overpay for a great player, he’s going to get burned a lot more often than not. Not going the extra distance to put your team on top because your scared of losing a lottery ticket is not the sign of a good GM.
actually think AA would overpay for a great player.
Are we still going with Garza as a “great” player?
no. never said AA would overpay for Garza, he would for a great player.
I hope the Cubs keep Garza and sign him long term rather then trade him. The Cubs need to get rid of Dempster, Soto, Marmol, and Soriano. Dempster I could see going to the Yankees for a prospect or 2 especially how he has been pitching lately (besides the last start.) Soto isn’t showing any promise and needs to go cause Steve Clevenger is tearing it up right now. Marmol forgot how to throw over the plate and Soriano is Soriano.
Sign him long-term and trade him when? Trade value wise I’m not seeing much difference if he’s under control for 1+ year (non-guaranteed) versus having a shiny new 5/70m deal in terms of what he’d fetch. The new deal would be a turn off for some, and those that wouldn’t mind taking on the money are the same teams prepared to make him an offer of their own after giving up valuable prospects for him. Unnecessary risk from the Cubs perspective.
I meant rather then trade him.
you might want to use the word ‘than’ rather than then
This could be a chance for the Cubs to make some team take Soriano’s contract. All Theo has to say is he’ll lower the asking price of prospects coming back IF the team will take the burden of the remaining Soriano contract.
It’d cost the acquiring team around 60m to have Garza through 2013, with Soriano burdening them a year longer. That is a lot of money to throw into the Cole Hamels pot or Zach Grienke’s.
My guess is best case scenario they find a team willing to take on Soriano at 5m/yr, meaning the Cubs would have to eat 33m to trade him now.
Add Soriano to the deal and they probably still have a combined negative value. The Orioles just lost Markakis, could use a good veteran arm…. does Hoyer approach them with the suggestion or wait by the phone?
GM’s are unpredictable, and some times stupid in times of desperation, but still seems very unlikely. The Cubs need the talent more then the money.
Firstly I’d rather give up Gose then Marisnick. I would be ok with some sort of package like
Gose, Jimenez, Cecil. Thats a CF prospect thats highly touted a Catcher who is flying up prospect lists and a starter who could do well in the NL to replace garza. Potentially another B prospect or something but that is what I would go with.
I’d be okay with that trade, but I’m pretty sure Jimenez is done for the year.
not sure why you would give up Gose and Marisnick.
also Cubs might have a problem with an offer of of a catcher heading for TJ surgery, and Cecil well….
I never said I’d give up Gose and Marisnick I said I’d rather give up Gose over Marisnick.
ok. i guess i misread trade Gose “THEN” Marisnick. sorry
We’ve all seen how much the Cubs want for Garza, I could only imagine what they would ask for Castro.