The Marlins are exchanging contract figures with 26-year-old Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, and two National League sources tell MLB.com's Joe Frisaro that the Cubs are no longer seriously in the mix. Chicago has apparently shifted its focus to 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler, though he is not yet eligible for free agency.
Upon his recent visit to Miami, the Marlins made Cespedes an offer that was initially reported to exceed $40MM. That number has since been denied, and Frisaro confirms that the offer was under $40MM, saying the Fish are comfortable with a number in the $30-35MM range.
The Cubs, meanwhile, are willing to spend as much as $27.5MM to land Soler, though Frisaro's sources are unclear on the number of years they'd offer. New Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have already made one significant international splash this offseason, signing 18-year-old Cuban Gerardo Concepcion to a $7MM contract with another million dollars of incentives.
Jorge looks like a stellar player. Hopefully, he can sign soon.
The Cubs would be doing the smart thing by going after Soler instead. Higher ceiling and a lot younger.
He’s younger, which means he has more time to adjust to pro ball in the States than Cespedes, but questionable if he has a higher ceiling.
a’s, whatEVER it takes, sign soler. by any means necessary!
I really hope the A’s can swoop in and get Soler. I hope that they can sell him on the farm system and how things will look as a whole for when he is MLB ready.
The A’s desperately needs bats in the farm system. They are stacked with pitching prospects, but not nearly enough offense…where have I heard that one before?
So the A’s are becoming the Giants across the bay. But hey, the Giants won a WS two years ago with mostly pitching and lucky at-bats from Cody Ross, so…
the a’s went for lucky at bats from josh willingham and david dejesus last year, and that backfired (to put it lightly)
now, for the most part, they’re looking to build their outfield from within (reddick being the exception, if he can stick, with seth smith being traded off if he performs well and a contending team is desperate this year or next)
a future outfield containing green, choice, reddick, and soler looks quite appealing.
Also looks like it has four outfielders
HAHA i know, meant green on the bench or platooning with one of the others
to everyone saying he wouldnt sign with miami what you gotta say now?
Thank god
Did he sign with them? Last time I checked this was a report and not a done deal. and if you think 30-35 million over 6 years is going to land him your dreaming hes looking at upwards of 50 million. Unless the marlins offer another contract I don’t see them getting him
Sure he’s looking for it, but if he doesn’t get that offer in another couple weeks, and $35M is what’s on the table, you better believe he takes it. That’s still an ENORMOUS amount of money. He’s not going to hold out until midseason and wait for $50M.
I’m not saying he will get it but that’s what he is looking for I see him getting 40-45 million, if he signs with Miami he will try to pry out every penny he can get from them, I just dont see him getting less than 40.
unless the marlins bid against themselves right now, he can sit and wait as long as he wants…
The season is a little more than a month and a half away. He can sit,wait, and eventually be watching.
Exactly
there arent other suitors out there for him to start besides the Cubs and Orioles. So he is going to have to settle for less than 50-60 million so him earning 6 million per year is that big of a risk.
Miami is making a big mistake.
Its a mistake worth making here in Miami Idk if your from Miami or not bro but I am and I know for a fact man you bring a cuban here the support for him will be through the roof. And also we love headlines here in Miami so getting all these big names make fans want to buy tickets jersey’s etc so its worth it.
So, people in Miami will support the Cuban, yet they haven’t supported their team for.. how many years now?
tv ratings are in the top percentage. we support the team. there are a lot of variables for the stadium not being filled. i have been rained out of multiple games, sat in 95 degree stands, etc. the new park will have no rain outs, no heat, and a better view of the game.
so you’re saying they don’t need to sign a cuban in order to attract more fans?
You’re saying the Yankees didn’t need to sign CC to attract more fans? The Red Sox didn’t need to sign A-Gon to attract more fans? The Cubs, well, they can sign pretty much anyone and still keep fans. You’re saying the Angels didn’t need to sign Pujols to attract more fans?
Those are all good players, who help their team win..
how is that comparable to Cespedes?
How is not signing a player popular to the region a plus
It is a plus.. if the player is good.
simply signing a cuban, japanese or any other non american player isn’t enough to raise ticket sales, atleast past his first game.
Ichiro has a solid following of japanese fans across the league because he is awesome and japanese, not just because he is japanese.
hideki matsui from last year agrees with your statement
Not showing up to a ****hole stadium is not the same as not supporting your team. Just ask Twins/Mariners/Giants fans.
you signed jose reyes, mark buerhle and heath bell..
and you think some mid 20’s cuban kid that most people have never even seen play is going to attract jersey and ticket sales?
yes
solid argument, I concede
dont get me wrong reyes, bell and buerhle will make fans happpy. But when you can relate to the player like cubans would with cespedes its something special. You see he wont just be cheered he will be beloved in Miami.
I fail to acknowledge that a persons nationality means anything until they prove to be a good player on the field.
well us here in Miami are like that bro.
no you’re not
Dude, it’s like Jeremy Lin. He had an asian-american following even before he broke out this past week. Miami literally consists of 70% Cuban-Americans; the majority of which are sympathetic to Cubans leaving Cuba and trying to re-establish their lives in America, like many of their families have. They would be at least “excited” that the Fish signed a Cuban player that they can empathize with.
you just proved my point..
how many people were following Jeremy Lin when he was a bench player?
he has to prove something on the court first. No one is going to games as an asian american, with signs and jerseys for some guy who sits on the bench .
like c’mon seriously, this isn’t even an argument.
Wasn’t arguing, just answered your question. For some reason Cespedes is super popular here (Cuban connection), and that’s just the way it is. Personally, I think I’d stay with boni and save the money. I’m ecstatic with the offseason as is for the marlins.
agreed, it was nice to have to have them invest in the on field product . should be an exciting year for miami
Reyes caused season ticket sales to spike. Buerhle and Bell are there to make it a winning team.
Cespedes will almost certainly start in the minors. If ticket sales start slipping mid-season, they can bring him back up for an instant boost. If he makes an immediate impact the way Stanton did when he came up, the jerseys will fly off the shelves in Little Havana.
jersey sales are shared.
winning is the best solution for increasing ticket sales. regardless of nationality.
how you can’t see this is beyond me
Agreed, but you included jersey sales in your original statement. That’s probably why he included that in his argument.
Revenue from jersey sales sold regionally go almost entirely to the team. If someone buys a Joe Mauer jersey in Minnesota, it’s the Twins who realize the gain. If a Mauer jersey is sold in another market, then there is a split. Yet the bulk of all jersey sales are regional, meaning the Marlins are the ones who will profit from Cespedes. Makes sense, since they’re the ones paying for and marketing him.
pretty sure thats false.
The support wont be there for long if he doesn’t produce. Marlin fans aren’t exactly known for sticking it with their team threw thick and thin.
Yeah, the Cubans will love the Cespedes signing, but the amount of hate for a white guy like Logan Morrison is unbelievable. Maybe if he learns Spanish you’ll like him a little more.
Huh? Lomo is loved down here.
Those who said he wouldn’t sign with Miami were right. He didn’t.
I would rather get the 19 year old then the 26 year old. I’ve seen his video and Cespedes swing is terrible.
Yeah it’s so terrible that dozens and dozens of MLB scouts that are paid to analyze swings (rather than comment about them on blogs) have told their teams to bid tens of millions of dollars to win his services.
And all of them say his hit tool is his weakest.
Actually they are saying he can’t hit off-speed pitches. The reason why he’s hyped up was the workout video and him running a 100 meter dash. Again, by the time he becomes MLB ready and adjust to the MLB he’d already be nearing 30. I’d rather get the 19 year old and hopefully he’ll be ready by the time he’s 25.
Have you seen him hit off-speed pitches? Reports are saying that he can’t, but you can’t believe everything you hear.
Have you seen him hit off-speed pitches?
Nope, which would seem to agree with these scouts.
i’m not exactly sure how a scout would benefit from lying about his ability to hit offspeed pitches
credible scouts are the ones saying their is an issue with his swing, mechanics and pitch recognition..
if we don’t go off the word of professionals, then what do we go off of?
Then why would anybody give him anywheres close to 40 million if he can hit off speed pitches, cubans throw changeups and breaking balls too. Scouts are just saying he’s going to have trouble with curveballs like verlanders but then again who doesn’t have problems with that hence the MVP award.
Who says he’s going to get 40 million though? its all speculation at this point..
And they felt that he would have trouble with mlb quality breaking pitches, not just verlanders.
The reality is, that if he was a young prospect things can be learned.. but in many ways he’s a finished product.
“if we don’t go off the word of professionals, then what do we go off of?”
-Grady Fuson, moments before he was fired by Billy Beane
comparing casual fans to professionals now are we?
God forbid people try to analyze things and come to conclusions on their own.
“I’ve seen his video and his mechanics are terrible.”
-Mariners scout passing on Tim Lincecum
The Marlins are really focused on having a team that will excite the Latin fan base. Adding Cespedes will be the final piece to a really solid offseason for them.
Soler was always a better fit for the Cubs anyway. He is younger, has more potential and will be ready to step in and contribute around the time the rebuilding process is coming to an end and the Cubs are serious about rebuilding.
Watch out for The Oakland A’s in Soler sweepstakes as well. Beane is signed long term and they may feel like adding Soler if they are steadfast on moving to San Jose.
excellent point about the a’s, plus they’ve held out on paying a lot on guys at the major league level and have been more active on the IFA side of things (yairo munoz, sanber pimentel, etc). hopefully that means good things to come with soler
Thank god someone understands the latin market that the Marlins are trying to please.
as a cubs fan, i’m verrry comfortable with this line of thinking.
Adding both Concepcion and Soler in addition to Rizzo would make for a great start to the rebuilding process.
adding assets while those toxic contracts melt off the books is all we can ask for right now. after this year only sori will be left, right?
as of now sori is the only ‘toxic’ contract on the books.
We’re still paying Zambrano 18 million to not be on our team. We’re paying Pena 5 million to not be on our team. We’re paying Dempster 14 million to be a mediocre starter. We’re paying Soriano almost 19 million to be a 1.5 WAR player.
There is more than just Soriano this year, but he will be the last disastrous contract left after 2012.
who says dempster will be a mediocre starter? his one down year? completely disregarding his very nice previous three seasons? typical. the $5M for Pena are negligible and doesn’t constitute ‘toxic’ seeing as how it was an accommodation on his part to even let his contract be structured as such. Zambrano is no longer a toxic contract, it’s a sunk cost. it’s still not good, but the situation has been resolved, but whatever I guess we can include that.
Cubs are always rebuilding. And when they’re not, they’re collapsing so they can rebuild next season.
Yeah, back to back division titles in 07 and 08 were definitely a part of the rebuilding process and the subsequent collapse. You know, they haven’t put a single good team on the field since 1908. “Three-Finger” Brown would be ashamed.
I love people that make comments like this. The ironic thing is, I guarantee you as recently as last year you probably made the comment, “The Cubs are always spending money to fix problems.”
This is the first time in my lifetime that the Cubs have gone through a true rebuild.
It’s imperative that team physicians carefully analyze Cespedes’ medical records.
Are you seeing future arm problems?
Yeah, like they can trust any records coming out of Cuba. They’ll either withhold them, or tarnish them as punishment for defecting.
Few years down the road if we land Soler, we could have Jackson, Szczur, and Soler. I like that outfield a lot. (that is assuming they all reach their potential)
Why is everyone so high on Szczur? He’ll be 23 in July and has done nothing in his 180 high A ABs to warrant a promotion to AA.
Last year was his first full year of playing just baseball. He is only going to get better from here. Yes he is a little bit older, but from what I’ve read from different scouts is that he is going to be a plus defender in the OF with good speed and hit for average. He could even develop some power. Some players don’t make an impact right away at young ages. It takes them some time.
But he doesn’t have good speed. He might be able to run one hell of an out rout, but his baseball speed is only average. Cubs fans are way too high on him.
Typical Cubs fan, really.
Typical troll, really.
You would think the fans of Baseball’s Lovable Losers would’ve learned to take it 90 years ago…
Seems like you’re the one who can’t take a jab.
And I’m a Cubs fan. I’m guessing you drink the river water.
Szczur is actually a great baserunner. He has above average speed (not quite plus), but he certainly isn’t average. As I said though, he uses the speed he has perfectly and runs great routes and is good on the base paths.
I’m not saying he is the next best thing. Notice in my original post i stated if he reaches his full potential then I’d be excited. Thats what I said. His potential is to be a solid everyday cf. Not a superstar by any means.
Highly doubt Cubs dropped out on Cespedes.
More I thought about this the more I say let Miami have him. There is too much unknown about him. Too much of a gamble for someone who has never been part of a MLB game before.
Why would he give Beane money for a guy that may never pan out to be anything.?Althought Soler would be a very good prospect, he would still be a prospect.
because i’d rather see them take a chance on him and have him not pan out than not take a chance on him and see him become a major leaguer, 5 tool players just don’t come around that often
The way the Cubs new front office seems to operate, this makes me think they have no interest in Soler and are going hard after Cespedes.
I think it means that they are in on both and are just being sneaky about it.
I find it humorous that everyone is so psyched about Soler. Don’t get me wrong, I hope the O’s get in on Soler but not at $27 million. Scouts say he’s essentially a 1st round draft pick quality player (at 19 years old). Would you be happy if your team gave a HS OF a $27 million deal?
You don’t have to bid with other teams on a HS OF that you drafted.
That’s true. However, that’s awesome Winner’s curse logic right there.
I suppose that depends on the team and situation. The Cubs (which I mention because it is the team I root for) can afford it–easily–and this is probably the last offseason where they can actually exercise their relative financial muscle on young talent. They are also in significant need of minor-league pieces to help a much-needed rebuilding process. $27MM is a lot of money if he fails, but it’s also nothing if he succeeds. It is a risk that makes too much sense not to take in their situation.
It’s not going to be an ideal situation for all teams. For some teams, that kind of money just represents too big of a risk. Others won’t believe in the player that much, others will be too close to luxury (I assume Soler is going to end up requiring a 40 man roster spot) or have other needs to address. That’s fine, but it doesn’t mean the teams who value him at that level are wrong.
Here’s the thing though. The whole point of ‘young talent’ isn’t necessarily that it’s just young and can grow. It’s that, even if only 5% of them pan out, they still provide ridiculous surplus value.
For example, Matt Wieters was worth $19MM last year despite being paid around $500K. So the O’s got $18.5MM worth of value out of him for one season.
By signing Soler (at 19) to a $27MM (assuming it’s a 6 year deal for example) you had better hope that he provides at least $10MM of value a year for years 4 – 6 because he’s going to be in the minors for the first 3 years. Even then, you’re only breaking even. Keep in mind that OF requires a higher offensive level of production than C.
If you want Soler because you think he’s going to be the next Matt Kemp, then sure, sign him. But the risk on a 19 yo kid at $30MM is absurd IMO.
You’re right, but $10MM/yr in value isn’t particularly hard to reach if we’re talking about a WAR->$ valuation. It’s about 2 WAR, which is pretty much an average Major League player. It puts him roughly in the territory of players like Darwin Barney, John Buck or if you want to focus on outfielders, Marlon Byrd, Endy Chavez, Sam Fuld, etc (based on their 2011 numbers). Naturally it’s still possible for him to fail to live up to that mark, but that is true of any signing at any amount of money. The team and its scouts obviously need to be diligent and make the best possible evaluation of where he could realistically fall. If they think he’s going to take 3 years to get to the Majors and then struggle to be a 2 WAR player, he’s not the signing for them. If they think he can make it faster or eclipse the mark easily, then it’s a risk worth considering.
Further, it’s still a question of money and resources. As I said before, some teams can afford this risk in their situations and others can’t. If I’m the Cubs, for example, I front-load the contract as much as possible, or shift a big chunk of it into an up-front bonus. It’s guaranteed money either way, but that way it gets paid in a time when the money is doing nothing (more than $30MM came off the Cubs’ books this offseason alone, with that much or more coming again next year). It still sucks if he fails, but if he succeeds you increase his surplus value during a time when you actually may need it. The overall “worth” of the contract may stay the same, but there is a definite value in having surplus when you need it. I’m certainly not in Soler’s head or his inner circle, but I would have to assume that a Cuban kid might enjoy getting a big chunk up front even if an agent might advise against it (then again he might not).
And of course, staying on the money train, it’s still an opportunity for a team who really needs it to “buy” new talent without the luck of draft position and in fact on TOP of draft position.
Naturally they want to pay less than $30MM. Everybody does, it’s not the question. The question is if the bidding forces the amount up that high, do the scouts and front office still think it’s likely they will recoup and exceed the payout? The information about the Cubs, for example, was startlingly specific. Assuming it’s not completely false, it is obvious that somebody in the front office sat down, ran their numbers and projections and felt comfortable that at $27.5MM he is still likely to be a net positive. It’s still a big potential for failure, but you have to bet big to win big sometimes. If you can do that in a time when losing doesn’t make a big dent in the finances or cripple the franchise, so much the better.
I agree. My point is that for cash-strapped clubs (aka not the cubs) an investment in Soler likely doesn’t make sense. For example, the O’s could draft Buxton in June (asuming he falls to 4) and get likely the same caliber of player (if not better) for a much lower price. This like you said, is contingent on draft position however.
My point though is that teams (again, not necessarily the cubs) invest in young talent because it economically makes sense. It’s incredibly easy to get ROI from cost-controlled young players. Soler will not be cost-controlled, and as such provides a much more risky ROI outlook than a similar prospect in the US would.
Finally, I suggest you read up “winner’s curse”. It’s an economic theory suggesting that the winners in a bidding process without perfect information often overpay (for a variety of reasons). I have a feeling that the bidders for Cespedes and Soler (much like the bidders for Papelbon, Prince, etc.) will overpay.
I agree with most of what you say. For some reason we’re hung up on the relative size of the risk. Yes, paying somebody $27.5MM is a lot riskier than paying somebody $2MM or whatever slot money for a high pick is these days. The question is whether it’s a good risk anyway, and that varies by team and situation. I’m not familiar enough with the O’s to suggest one way or another if they or any other team should find the risk worthwhile. The team I follow (Cubs) should, both logically (which I’ve explained) and because they obviously DO; they sat down and came up with a willingness to pay up to $27.5MM out of somewhere.
I’m familiar with the concept of the winner’s curse, but life is not a philosophy classroom. Over a hundred years of baseball later, our attempts to valuate a player are crude at best. We can’t just take a player down to the appraiser and find out if the cost was an overpay, and would have to wait until the end of the contract to even try — at which point it no longer matters. As such it makes little difference whether a winner’s curse exists in baseball because if it does, it will always exist. Perfect information almost never exists at all, much less in a situation as volatile as an athlete’s performance.
If the only way to avoid the winner’s curse is not to win, that sounds like a losing strategy (pardon the humor). At some point teams with aspirations to be more than good need to get into an “auction,” whether that is free agency or something like this, and we’re right back to “is it a good risk for the individual team?” Unless you’re the Rays I guess.
It seems the Rays are avoiding the whole auction thing to great effect.
The amount of over-payment that occurs should bother teams more than it does though. (I’m looking at you A-Rod, Prince, etc.)
It’s the first stage in the grieving process. Right now, they’re denying they ever wanted Cespedes. Then, they’re gonna be angry they didn’t sign Cespedes. After that, they’ll say let’s give Soler a few more years and see if he turns out better than Cespedes. After Soler turns out to be a dud, they’ll be disappointed they missed out on Cespedes. Then finally, they’ll realize they’re Cubs fans anyway, it’s the best they could’ve expected no matter who they signed.
He went to Miami. He only talked with Miami. He’s playing for Miami.
He didn’t only talk to Miami. The Cubs have been talking to him and his agent foe months.
Hah, fail.
Hah, I bet you had this and other comments bookmarked just in case.
Oh yes. My life’s purpose is to spite you.
I would like the Cubs to get young talent, but at 27.5 million, it better be a 10 year contract.
This. It is possible that they could sign him to, say a 4 year deal but then still have 3 arbitration years after the contract ends though.
I don’t understand how Cubs fans can be so down on Cespedes and so high on Soler. Apart from some grainy videos, they couldn’t have seen much of them nor have much idea what to look for. The argument of Soler>Cespedes seems to be entirely based on age and the belieft that the amazing Cubs farm system will make him into an elite player.
Ever since Theo came to town, it seems that Cub fans feel management can do no wrong in Wrigleyville. Will be interesting to see how patient Cubs fans are…
I’m not high or low on either one. The Cubs have scouted them and will make their decision. If this report is right, they think Cespedes isn’t worth the price. They like Soler. I believe Theo/Jed have a pretty good track record. I don’t think anyone said they can do no wrong. They will make mistakes. Every team does. But they will do alot better than past regimes.
As far as patience. Cub fans are the most patient fanbase in America. I will start getting upset if they don’t get to the WS in the next 5 years. That’s patience.
5 years really isn’t that much lead time to turn things around.
Cespedes has NEVER played in the MLB. He could be a bust.
Soler has NEVER played in the MLB. He could be a bust.
See what I did there?
While total dollars risked may be a bit lower with Soler, it’s still an investment and money that could be better spent on other talent.
The A’s are a joke Billy Beane got lucky those few years. Now look whenever they do get some good players see ya later they trade them. Soler will sign with the cubs. Way better front office to sell the team and look at their farm system getting pretty stacked.