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MLB Mailbag: Helsley, Giants, Rangers, Brewers, Gore, Cubs, Padres

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This week's MLBTR Mailbag looks at Ryan Helsley's value, potential upgrades for the Giants, some Rangers trade candidates, the Brewers' infield, MacKenzie Gore's breakout and why he's a difficult trade candidate to envision, the Cubs' bench, the Padres' outfield and more!

Let's dive in!

Sam asks...

Given Helsley's dip in performance this year, would the Cardinals get more future value/prospects by trading him or offering a QO? This questions assumes that the decision is made entirely on boosting the farm system, not with any considerations for this year's team or the '25 playoffs.

The assumption there is important, as I'm not at all convinced the Cardinals will trade Helsley given the manner in which they've trounced preseason expectations from just about everyone (myself one thousand percent included). From a pure look at future value, though, the more prudent move to gain future value is to trade him before July 31. Holding him makes further assumptions than the one you listed in this question; it assumes that Helsley will stay healthy and that he'll pitch well enough to merit a qualifying offer at season's end. Neither is a given.

Further, there's no certainty that he'd sign a contract worth $50MM or more even if he rejects a qualifying offer. That's the threshold needed to secure a compensatory pick after the first round of the draft. If Helsley signed for under $50MM, that comp pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, some 40 picks later.

If Helsley is healthy and pitching well, there's a good case for him to land that $50MM+, but we can't assume he gets it. There have been instances in the past of relievers turning down a QO, seeking a massive payday, and lingering in free agency because their initial ask was too high and because teams had exhausted their offseason budgets by the time that asking price came down. Cardinals fans should be quite familiar with this phenomenon; it's how Greg Holland landed in St. Louis back in 2018.

So, there's a lot of presumption just to get to the point where the Cardinals select in the No. 31-35 range with the comp pick for Helsley -- and then there's the matter of actually drafting the correct player there as well. There are obvious, bigger-picture benefits to adding that pick's slot value to the team's 2026 draft budget, but the best way to maximize that value is to land a high-quality prospect there. Let's run through the recent history of players selected with QO compensation picks after the first round:

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Trade Deadline Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR's subscriber series previewing each club's deadline activity continues. Next up: the team that has already pulled off what'll probably be the biggest in-season trade we'll get all year.

Record: 44-35 (56.2% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: first base, second base, mid-rotation starter, left-handed relief

Two weeks ago, identifying the Giants' biggest priority was simple. The lineup was floundering and in desperate need of an impact bat. Then came the Rafael Devers stunner. All of a sudden, the top half of the order looks strong. They've pitched exceptionally well all season. They have fewer areas that they absolutely need to address than one might expect, since they're still generally viewed as a step below the top contenders in the National League.

First base was the biggest problem into the middle of June. They finally pulled the plug on the scuffling LaMonte Wade Jr. while signing Dominic Smith as a stopgap. Smith has made a strong impression through his first 16 games. More importantly, the Giants quickly convinced Devers to start taking drills at first base. He remains a designated hitter for now, but there's a decent chance he's getting into games as a first baseman prior to the July 31 deadline.

That doesn't preclude an upgrade. Smith has had a strong couple weeks, but he was a replacement level player between 2021-24. He's not someone who firmly stands in the way of an outside acquisition. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge suffered a right hamstring strain in Triple-A just this week (relayed by Justice delos Santos of The Mercury News). He's going to be out of action for at least 3-4 weeks and is unlikely to make his MLB debut before July is out. The Giants could theoretically replace Smith while keeping Devers as a designated hitter.

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MLBTR Podcast: The Braves Say They Won’t Sell, Jeimer Candelario DFA’d, And Injured D-Backs

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Matthew Boyd has already surpassed his highest innings total since 2019. How far do the Cubs push him over the remainder of the season? (32:05)
  • The Padres and Royals have pitching they could trade but should they? (38:20)
  • The Reds don’t have long-term answers at first base, third base, left field, right field or designated hitter. Is there a path to bring in players from outside the organization? (45:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Robert Edwards, Imagn Images

D-Backs GM Mike Hazen Talks Trade Deadline

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The Diamondbacks dropped this afternoon’s series finale against the White Sox, falling to 41-39. They’re 3.5 games back with four teams in front of them in a crowded NL Wild Card picture. As Darragh McDonald and I discussed on this week’s MLBTR podcast, Arizona is one of the most interesting bubble teams five weeks from the deadline. They’re still in the race but have been battered by injuries, leaving them shorthanded as they enter a pivotal stretch of the season.

General manager Mike Hazen spoke with ESPN’s Jesse Rogers on Tuesday and said he has started to receive calls from opposing clubs gauging their interest in selling. Hazen jokingly likened the rival executives to sharks circling but noted that the D-Backs aren’t interested in dealing away talent at this point.

“We have good players, so I don’t see why we shouldn’t be able to play good baseball and stay in this and then get those guys back and maybe be able to add on at the deadline,” the GM said, referencing the recent injured list placements to right fielder Corbin Carroll and catcher Gabriel Moreno. Arizona has also recently lost Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk, but none of them will be back this season. Hazen acknowledged there may eventually be “a critical mass of injuries” that forces them to reconsider but added he “still (thinks they) have every opportunity to be competitive.”

It’s what should be expected from a bubble team’s GM this far out. It’d be far more surprising if the D-Backs were already open for business. They’ll know more in a month about their place in the standings and on the statuses of Carroll (wrist fracture) and Moreno (broken index finger). Hazen conceded, however, that playoff spots will be tough to come by in a National League that has ten teams that are above .500 at the moment.

If they’re still within a few games of a playoff spot in July, they’ll be motivated to buy. The D-Backs narrowly missed the postseason a year ago. Ownership subsequently approved a franchise-record payroll to support an excellent lineup. Their pitching plans have largely been decimated by injuries and/or underperformance from their free agent acquisitions. That has kept them around .500 despite an offense that trails only the Dodgers and Cubs in runs — one year after they led MLB in scoring.

The ideal outcome is that the team plays well enough that the front office can add to the pitching staff, especially in the bullpen. If things go in the opposite direction over the next month, they’d have no shortage of veteran players to shop. Josh Naylor, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eugenio Suárez, Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks are all impending free agents. Gallen seems unlikely to re-sign, and it’s tough to see the Diamondbacks retaining both Naylor and Suárez while again blocking Jordan Lawlar’s path to infield at-bats. The D-Backs could consider a qualifying offer for any of the first four players, though it’s unlikely they’d QO all four since there’d be an argument for each of them to accept.

Naylor and Suárez have been middle-of-the-order run producers and would be among the top rental bats if the D-Backs made them available. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that the Yankees have shown some early interest in Suárez with a likely infield need. Acquiring a third baseman would free them to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to second base and move DJ LeMahieu to a utility role. Suárez is currently day-to-day after being hit by a pitch on Monday. He sat out the final two games of the Chicago series.

Gallen has had a poor season but has the pedigree to attract attention. The 36-year-old Kelly is churning out another low-3.00s ERA season while striking out a quarter of opponents. Miller, who is playing for barely more than the league minimum after signing an offseason minor league contract, would be a top bullpen target. He’s carrying a sub-2.00 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate while pitching his way into the ninth inning. Beeks has pitched well in a setup capacity and would be a target for teams seeking left-handed relief.

Diego Segui Passes Away

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Former ERA champion Diego Segui has passed away. He was 87.

Born in Cuba and a natural left-hander, Segui nevertheless began throwing a baseball right handed. He initially signed with the Reds but never got an opportunity in the Cincinnati farm system. He spent some time pitching for an independent team before the A’s purchased his contract. Segui would spend three seasons climbing the minor league ladder and reached the big leagues in 1962. The A’s, based in Kansas City at the time, used him mostly as a starting pitcher.

The 6’0″ hurler ate a lot of innings but didn’t have great numbers. The A’s sold his contract to the Washington Senators in 1966 before reacquiring him the following year. A move to the bullpen seemed to spark him, as he posted a 3.09 ERA over 70 innings. He turned in a career-low 2.39 mark over 52 appearances the following year, the franchise’s first in Oakland.

After that season, the Seattle Pilots — a team that played one season before moving to Milwaukee and rebranding as the Brewers — selected Segui in the expansion draft. He worked to a 3.35 ERA while logging 142 1/3 frames in an age when relievers frequently threw multiple innings. The Brewers traded him back to Oakland the following offseason.

The A’s third acquisition of Segui was their most successful. He had a career year in 1970, firing 162 innings across 47 appearances (including 19 starts). He led all qualified pitchers with a 2.56 earned run average. The A’s reached the postseason the following year, allowing Segui to make his playoff debut. He got the start in an elimination game against the Orioles during the AL Championship Series. He was outpitched by Jim Palmer and the A’s dropped the game 5-3.

Segui’s time with the organization ended for good the following season, as they dealt him to the Cardinals midway through the ’72 campaign. That unfortunately immediately preceded Oakland’s run of three consecutive titles in 1972-74. Segui spent a couple seasons in St. Louis before being traded to the Red Sox. He didn’t post great numbers with Boston but was on the ’75 team that ended his former club’s three-peat in the ALCS.  While Segui did not appear in that series, he tossed a mop-up inning in a Game 5 loss to the Reds in the World Series. An inherited runner scored on a sacrifice fly, but he retired George Foster, Dave Concepcion and Cesar Geronimo in order.

The Sox dropped the ’75 World Series in a classic seven-game set, which kept Segui from ever winning a championship. He finished his big league career in 1977 with the expansion Mariners. He was the first pitcher in team history as the Opening Day starter and earned the distinction of appearing for both Seattle franchises. Thanks to his age (39) and previous Seattle ties, he received the fantastic nickname “The Ancient Mariner.”

Segui’s MLB playing days concluded after the ’77 season. He pitched in parts of 15 seasons and logged a 3.81 ERA in more than 1800 innings. Segui won 92 games, recorded nearly 1300 strikeouts, and collected 71 saves. His playing days stretched far beyond the end of his big league time, though. He pitched in the Mexican League until 1984, going through age 46. Segui also had an extended run in the Venezuelan winter league during his MLB career, for which he was inducted into the Venezuelan Baseball Hall of Fame in 2003. His son David Segui would go to a 15-year MLB career of his own as a first baseman/outfielder. MLBTR sends our condolences to the Segui family and others affected by his loss.

Rays, MLB Have Discussed Potential Playoff Hosting Plans

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At 44-35, the Rays are firmly in the postseason mix. They’re one game back of the Yankees in the AL East and in possession of the American League’s top Wild Card spot. FanGraphs gives them more than a 70% chance of playing in October.

That’d present a challenge for MLB because of their stadium situation. The Rays are playing at an A-ball facility after last fall’s hurricane damage rendered Tropicana Field unplayable. Their interim home, George M. Steinbrenner Field, has a capacity a little above 11,000. The A’s are playing in a similarly small ballpark but have essentially no chance of making the playoffs this season, at least delaying their decision by a year. Every other MLB stadium has a capacity of at least 34,000.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Rays officials have had preliminary conversations with the league office about how they’d handle potential home playoff games. He writes that it’s possible the league will consider Steinbrenner Field satisfactory for potential Wild Card and Division Series but could push for a change in venue if the Rays advance as far as the AL Championship Series.

The concerns go beyond the optics of a small playoff crowd. The league could have difficulty accommodating the larger broadcasting and media contingents, as the field also has a very small press box. Rosenthal’s piece is worth a full read, as he goes into specifics about the logistical challenges that a smaller field present for the league’s broadcast partners.

The Players Association may also prefer a move to a stadium with more seating. Players’ postseason shares are a percentage of playoff gate receipts. Games at Steinbrenner Field will obviously have artificially low attendance numbers. It wouldn’t be a huge percentage of overall playoff gate revenue, but it would take on added importance if the Rays make a deep run. Playing the Rays’ scheduled home games at a neutral site would presumably generate more attendance, though it’d negate whatever on-field advantages they get from playing in front of their home crowd.

It may all end up being a moot point. The Rays could miss the playoffs. If they get in as the second or third Wild Card team, they’d play on the road for their entire three-game series in the first round (as all fifth and sixth seeds do). Nevertheless, the league will need to have a plan in place in advance of the beginning of the playoffs. That could also inform how they’d handle things if the A’s make the postseason before the scheduled opening of their Las Vegas stadium in 2028.

The Rays hope to return to Tropicana Field next season. Their lease at the Trop runs for three more years once it’s again playable. Owner Stuart Sternberg is reportedly in talks with a group led by a Jacksonville-based real estate developer about a sale of the franchise. That group is expected to seek a new stadium in the Tampa Bay region for the long term if the sale is finalized.

Extension Talks Between Astros, Jeremy Peña Put On Hold

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The Astros and Jeremy Peña were apparently making some recent progress on extension talks, per reports from Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Heyman described the talks as “serious” while Alexander said the two sides were “deep” in discussions. Alexander adds that the deal in question would have exceeded $105MM over five years. However, Heyman notes that these talks took place before Peña switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. Earlier this week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that Peña had hired Boras to represent him.

Peña, 27, has long been a solid shortstop of the glove-first variety but his bat has taken a step forward this year. From 2022 to 2024, he produced a combined .261/.307/.399 batting line. He hit 47 home runs but only drew walks in 4.9% of his plate appearances. His 100 wRC+ for that span indicates he was exactly league average at the plate. But thanks to his glovework and 44 stolen bases, he was able to produce 8.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

This year, he’s already up to 4.0 fWAR through 79 games thanks to a massive .326/.382/.495 line and 150 wRC+. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s currently riding a .365 batting average on balls in play. For context, this year’s league average is .291 and Peña personally had a .308 BABIP coming into the season. Still, there are some signs it’s not entirely luck. His 41.4% hard hit rate is a career high. He has 11 home runs, despite only hitting 15 last year and just 10 the year prior. His 5.9% walk rate is still low but an improvement for him. His strikeout rate is also down for a fourth straight year. He had a 24.2% rate in his rookie season in 2022, then 20.3% the year after, 17.1% last season and 15.9% this year.

Though there may be some regression coming, it seems fair to conclude Peña has increased his earning power with his bat this year. Perhaps he realized this as well and that’s why he made the pivot to Boras. The idea that Boras clients never sign extensions is incorrect, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Several big-name Boras clients have signed extensions, including Stephen Strasburg, Xander Bogaerts and Peña’s teammates Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr..

On the other hand, there is some truth to the fact that Boras clients generally lean towards trying out the free agent market. It’s possible there’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg thing happening. Do Boras clients look to maximize earnings because that’s the way the agency prefers to operate? Or do players looking to max out hire Boras because they have seen him play that game?

Whatever the reasoning, Peña has made the switch at a notable time. He came into this year with exactly three years of major league service time, meaning he’ll be at the four-year mark at the end of the year and on pace for free agency after 2027.

Peña is currently in his age-27 season, making a $4.1MM arbitration salary. A five-year deal starting in 2026 would buy out his final two arb years and three free agent years. Looking again to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker for players in the 4-5 service window who signed extensions, the group has two clear standouts. Garrett Crochet recently secured himself a six-year, $170MM guarantee. A few years prior, Matt Olson got $168MM over eight years.

There’s a clear gap between those deals and what the Astros were discussing with Peña, so perhaps that is what has led to this pause. Since Peña is currently in his age-27 season, he is on track to reach free agency after his age-29 campaign. A five-year extension would buy out his age-28 through age-32 seasons. If he can keep putting up solid numbers, he should have more earning power by going year to year and hitting the open market younger. Though that naturally comes with the risk that his performance dips or he suffers a significant injury between now and then.

Ultimately, it’s up to Peña and what his priorities are. As mentioned, he’s making $4.1MM this year. He has already set himself up for a nice raise next year. He should have some financial security and could bank on himself if he wants. If he’s comfortable with the Astros, perhaps he would be willing to take something below full market value to stay, but then maybe he wouldn’t have hired Boras if that were the case.

For the Astros, they have extended some players, as mentioned. However, they have also let guys like Carlos Correa, George Springer and others walk to sign elsewhere. They signed Alex Bregman to an early-career extension but eventually let him hit free agency and sign with the Red Sox. Framber Valdez seems likely to depart after the current season. Kyle Tucker seemed unlikely to sign an extension and was traded in the offseason.

Payroll wise, the Astros are right up against the competitive balance tax this year and are clearly trying to avoid it, though they have more wiggle room going forward. RosterResource has their 2026 CBT number pegged at $135MM, about $100MM lower than this year’s. Arbitration raises will increase that numbers but the club is going to see commitments to José Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero come off the books. Their most notable impending free agent is Valdez, though they may feel they can replace him internally with their many injured starters potentially getting healthier by next year.

Looking farther down the line, McCullers comes off the books after 2026, Christian Walker and Cristian Javier after 2027, then Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader after 2028. Altuve is the only guy on the books by 2029 and they’re clear by 2030. It appears there should be room in there for Peña but he will have to agree on an acceptable price point.

Photo courtesy of Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Designate Spencer Turnbull For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that they have reinstated right-hander Max Scherzer from the 60-day injured list. Fellow righty Spencer Turnbull has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to pass it along.

Turnbull, 32, was a notable free agent this offseason. He had a good season with the Phillies last year on a rate basis, posting a 2.65 earned run average over 54 1/3 innings in a swing role. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 47.5% ground ball rate were a few ticks above average with a 9% walk rate that was right around par. His workload was limited both by the Phils shuttling him between the rotation and bullpen, as well as a lat strain that kept him on the IL for most of the second half.

Despite the solid numbers, he lingered unsigned into the season. The Blue Jays had lost Scherzer to the IL after just one start and made various attempts to replace him in the rotation, giving chances to guys like Easton Lucas, José Ureña, Paxton Schultz and Eric Lauer.

They added Turnbull into the mix by signing him in early May, technically on a $1,265,306 salary but it was prorated to an even $1MM since some of the season was already in the books. Since he missed all of spring training, he agreed to be optioned to the minors to build up, though with a 35-day limit before he needed to be called up.

On that optional assignment, he seemed to struggle to get his velocity up. He averaged less than 90 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in his Triple-A outings, despite being at 92 mph last year and in the 93-94 mph range in his previous big league seasons. Regardless, with their 35-day window closing, the Jays called him up in mid-June.

His first two outings were in relief and were reasonable enough. He started with two shutout frames against the Cardinals on June 11th, then allowed one run over 2 1/3 innings against the Phillies on the 15th, averaging around 91 mph in those outings. The Jays gave him a start against the White Sox on Friday, which did not go well. His four-seamer averaged 90.3 mph as he allowed four earned runs in two innings. He now sports a 7.11 ERA in his small sample of work this year, with his strikeout and walk rates matching at 12.1%, a subpar number in both cases.

While Turnbull has struggled to get into a good groove, other pitchers have outperformed him. Lauer, signed to a minor league deal in the offseason, has a 2.21 ERA in 40 2/3 innings for the Jays this year. There’s certainly some luck in there but his 25.5% strikeout rate is strong and his 8.7% walk rate around average. The Jays could have kicked Turnbull into a long relief role but Schultz has a 3.80 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate. He also has options, meaning the Jays have some freedom to shuttle him to Triple-A when they want a fresh arm.

With Scherzer’s return, he will join Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt in the rotation. Bowden Francis landed on the IL about a week ago due to a shoulder impingement but Lauer has seemingly taken over that spot.

Put it all together and Turnbull heads into DFA limbo, which can last as long as a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, meaning the Jays can take as long as five days to explore trade interest. Given his form so far this year and his salary, teams might wait for him to hit the open market. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while keeping his salary in tact. It’s possible the Jays skip the formality and simply release him.

If that comes to pass, teams would be able to sign him and only pay him the prorated league minimum salary for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from Toronto’s commitment. That could be an attractive flier for some clubs, given Turnbull’s past work. As mentioned, he had decent results as recently as last year. From 2019 to 2021 with the Tigers, he posted a 4.13 ERA in 255 innings with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 50.3% ground ball rate. He missed 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and struggled in 2023 but bounced back with the Phils last year. His 2025 hasn’t been amazing so far but it’s also followed an unusual trajectory.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images

Poll: NL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave each clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Who are the frontrunners to claim the MVP Award this offseason? MLBTR’s look at the American League saw Aaron Judge come away with 55% of the vote, and today we’ll be checking out the National League:

Shohei Ohtani

The reigning NL MVP hasn’t slowed down much after his 50-50 2024 campaign. Ohtani is slashing an incredible .289/.388/.627 (174 wRC+) through 78 games this year, with 27 home runs and 11 steals during that time. His status as a DH holds him back somewhat in terms of WAR, but he’s still second in the NL among hitters according to Fangraphs. He leads the league in homers and slugging percentage and clocks in within the top five in terms of on-base percentage. Ohtani’s expected numbers are quite good as well, as his .435 xwOBA is actually better than his wOBA and trails only Juan Soto among NL hitters. Of course, the real ace in the hole for Ohtani is the fact that he’s returning to pitching this year. He’s only thrown two innings so far, but his stuff has looked good in those abbreviated outings and he figures to only ramp up the volume as the season progresses.

Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season until he either starts facing significant decline or retires from pitching. That said, he does not currently hold sole possession of the NL lead for fWAR even when combining his pitching and hitting numbers this year. His offensive numbers have not been quite as robust as they were last year, and he notably is not stealing bases anywhere near as frequently as he did when he was the second most valuable baserunner in the NL last season. For a player who’s won an MVP award in three of the last four seasons, voter fatigue can be a consideration as well; just ask Ohtani’s former teammate Mike Trout about the 2015 season. Will those potential weak spots be enough to let another player overcome him?

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The dynamic 23-year-old’s breakout has been one of the biggest stories in the entire sport this year. Despite entering the 2025 season as a career 82 wRC+ hitter across parts of two seasons in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has slashed .273/.310/.563 (140 wRC+) across 78 games. That’s a very low on-base percentage for an MVP candidate, but Crow-Armstrong makes up for that flaw by being elite in every other regard. He’s fifth in the NL with 21 home runs, his 24 stolen bases are second only to Oneil Cruz, and he’s one of the most valuable defenders in the entire sport with +10 Outs Above Average. Taken together, it’s enough to give Crow-Armstrong a 4.0 fWAR figure that leads the league among hitters, and is tied with Ohtani when the latter’s work on the mound is factored in.

For those less statistically inclined, the fact that his breakout has been key to the Cubs’ ascent from mediocrity to become one of the league’s heavyweights could hold value with voters who differentiate between the “most valuable” player in the league and the “best” player in the league. Even with all of that going for him, it’s hard to consider Crow-Armstrong the favorite. Ohtani’s star power and uniqueness as a two-way player is difficult to match, and if he’s able to pitch effectively throughout the second half, it will be very difficult for Crow-Armstrong to not fall behind on the WAR leaderboard. What’s more, advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical of his offensive performance this year, as his .356 xwOBA is 16 points lower than his actual wOBA of .372. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline issues go beyond his anemic walk rate; he swings more often than any qualified hitter in baseball but has a below-average contact rate both overall and more specifically on pitches within the strike zone.

James Wood

He’s lagging behind both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong at this point, but Wood has been every bit the phenom the Nationals hoped he would be when acquiring him as part of the Juan Soto trade back in 2022. He’s hitting .281/.377/.561 (158 wRC+) in 80 games to go along with nine steals and solid defense in left field. His underlying offensive metrics are also immaculate, with top of the scale expected numbers, elite bat speed, and a 99th percentile barrel rate. It’s an exciting offensive performance, particularly from a player who’s just 22 years old. Some MVP voters could also hold the fact that Wood and his Nationals are not contenders against the budding young star.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis is a familiar face in the NL MVP race, as he finished fourth for the award in 2020 before coming in third the following year. Injuries, a PED suspension, and a move from shortstop to right field have all changed the way Tatis is viewed around the league in the years since. That hasn’t stopped him from remaining a force within the Padres lineup, and this year he’s been one of the better all-around players in the NL. He’s slashing .264/.352/.459 (129 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals, and his defensive value is second only to Crow-Armstrong among NL outfielders. Tatis also benefits from strong underlying numbers; his .390 xwOBA is 37 points higher than his .353 wOBA, and if he can play closer to those expected numbers in the second half, he could push his way up to the top of some ballots.

Other Options

While Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong appear to be the clear frontrunners at this point, Wood and Tatis aren’t the only potential challengers. Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a sensational season and was right there in the mix with the top two until news a wrist fracture yesterday left it uncertain when he’ll take the field next. Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker have both been excellent and could find themselves more firmly in this conversation if things break right in the second half. Will Smith is one of the league’s top hitters this year with a 170 wRC+ made all the more impressive by his status as a regular catcher, but he’s only played in 63 games so far.

Juan Soto’s first half has been somewhat disappointing by his standards (147 wRC+), but he’s on an absolute tear right now and his .458 xwOBA is right in line with last year’s monster performance. Elly De La Cruz is flirting with pace for a 40-40 season but hasn’t been nearly as rangy at shortstop this season in the eyes of defensive metrics, which has weighed him down a bit. He could still easily emerge as a candidate with a big second half. Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler are all in the midst of dominant seasons on the mound, but it’s somewhat rare for a pitcher to win the MVP award.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in NL MVP voting? Will Ohtani reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Crow-Armstrong step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Mets Designate José Castillo, Richard Lovelady For Assignment

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The Mets announced that they have selected right-hander Jonathan Pintaro to the roster, a move that was reported yesterday, and recalled left-hander Brandon Waddell. In corresponding moves, they have designated left-handers José Castillo and Richard Lovelady for assignment.

The Mets opened the season with A.J. Minter and Danny Young as the lefties in their bullpen. They lost both of them before the end of April. Minter required season-ending lat surgery while Young required Tommy John surgery.

Shortly thereafter, the out-of-options Castillo was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks. The Mets sent some cash to Arizona in order to skip the waiver queue. He has generally performed well since becoming a Met, having tossed 11 1/3 innings with a 2.38 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

Getting bumped off the roster today might simply be due to the club having a taxed bullpen, as they used all eight of their relievers in the past two days. Reed Garrett pitched on both days, including 22 pitches last night. Three other relievers on the club, including Lovelady, tossed 24 pitches or more last night.

They have added some fresh arms to the group today but Castillo has been bumped into DFA limbo, which can last as long as a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so the Mets could take as long as five days to explore trade interest.

Lovelady, 29, was just signed a couple of days ago. There was an amusing bit of confusion about his name when the Mets announced him as “Dicky” Lovelady. Per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, the lefty does go by “Dicky” during casual interactions but will be referred to as “Richard” in official settings such as in print and on scoreboards.

He tossed an inning and two thirds for the Mets last night, allowing two earned runs via two walks and a hit, while striking out one. Like Castillo, he is out of options and has been bumped off the roster and into DFA limbo.

Prior to joining the Mets, he was in good form on a minor league deal with the Twins. He had tossed 20 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 1.31 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 60.4% ground ball rate.

The Mets now have no real lefty presence in the bullpen. Waddell is a southpaw but he’s likely to be used as a long reliever. Brooks Raley could join the club later in the season but is still recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery. It seems fair to expect the Mets to be on the lookout for lefty relief help between now and the deadline.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

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