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Poll: Would You Trade The 2027 MLB Season For A Salary Cap?
The past weekend seemed like something of a tipping point for fans of teams other than the Dodgers. The Dodgers were able to land Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki on Friday for a mere $6.5MM bonus, given the restrictions on signing international players under the age of 25. While Sasaki will enter the arbitration system for the final three years of team control from 2028-30, he still comes with incredible surplus value.
Then on Sunday, the Dodgers put an exclamation point on their weekend by signing the best reliever on the market, Tanner Scott, to the fifth-largest free agent contract ever at the position. And yes, there was significant deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that’s a poll topic for another day.
We’ll hear from Sasaki soon enough, but surely the Dodgers’ previous monstrous offseason signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto helped lure him to Los Angeles. Since the 2023 season ended, the club has also added Teoscar Hernandez (twice), Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and others, while brokering extensions for Glasnow, Will Smith, and trade pickup Tommy Edman.
It’s not easy to buy an MLB dynasty. Others have tried, but the sport hasn’t seen back-to-back World Series winners since the 1998-2000 Yankees accomplished a three-peat. Now, with a 12-team playoff format, that might be even harder for the Dodgers to pull off.
Most MLB teams don’t open their books to the public, so we don’t know how many clubs would be profitable at the $370MM payroll the Dodgers currently sport. It’s fair to assume small market clubs could not support that type of payroll, even though some of them receive in excess of $150MM between national revenues and revenue sharing each year.
Some might argue that because of the nature of the MLB playoffs, the sport is already in good shape in terms of parity. But because the Dodgers bring in so much revenue (particularly through their TV deal), they have advantages in acquiring players that many markets simply cannot match. Maybe the Dodgers can’t guarantee a string of championships, but they haven’t won fewer than 98 regular season games since 2018 (extrapolating the pandemic season). Their payroll is obviously part of their success.
The drumbeat from fans, at least on social media, seems to be getting louder for a salary cap. It’s hard to argue: if all 30 teams were capped at spending, say, $200MM on player payroll, the regular season playing field would be leveled significantly. There would be star free agents the Dodgers, Mets, and other big markets simply could not sign. The salary cap would be tied to league revenue, and would rise accordingly. I’m not convinced a salary cap (and floor) is the only way to improve parity, but it’s the most obvious one.
MLB owners have wanted a salary cap for a long time. You may recall that was the reason for the 1994 strike, which cost us the World Series that year. The players did not give in to that demand, though they did allow for the first luxury tax in subsequent years.
The thing about a salary cap is that it would almost certainly increase parity, but as the name states, it would also cap player earnings short of what the free market allows. The expectation is that a salary cap would reduce the total amount of money earned by players, although commissioner Rob Manfred might argue that point. That’s why MLB is not an unbiased source when they talk about how a salary cap is needed for competitive balance.
Baseball has always had the strongest union in sports, almost entirely because of one man: Marvin Miller. Miller essentially created the MLBPA in 1966. He ran it until 1982 and deserves credit for the advent of arbitration and free agency in MLB. He also rallied players to go on strike or endure lockouts to ensure they only made forward progress, and did not accept a salary cap or even a luxury tax.
While the MLBPA has ceded ground since Miller retired, the sport still does not have a salary cap. Baseball was able to avoid work stoppages since the ’94 strike, until owners locked out the players after the 2021 CBA expired in December. Though negotiations often seemed perilous, ultimately a new five-year agreement was reached in March of 2022 and no games were lost. The two sides seemed enough at odds that many observers wondered if we’ll simply now get a lockout every five years.
In the wake of the most recent CBA and given turmoil with television rights, MLB put together an “economic reform committee.” The current CBA expires on December 1st, 2026. It’s not hard to picture owners banding together for their strongest salary cap push since Bud Selig’s in ’94. Assuming the MLBPA has enough solidarity under Tony Clark and Bruce Meyer to match its legacy, it follows that players might not give in, and some or even all of the 2027 season could be cancelled.
That leaves me with two questions for tonight’s poll. (I apologize for my lack of clarity in the initial version of this poll: assume a salary cap comes with a floor).
And then the next question:
Blue Jays Interested In Max Scherzer
There hasn’t been much public buzz about Max Scherzer this winter, apart from a report earlier this month that four unknown clubs were showing interest in the future Hall-of-Famer’s services. The Blue Jays may or may not have been one of those four mystery teams, but Toronto is showing interest in Scherzer now, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith.
The Jays have been linked to dozens of free agents this winter, continuing the unofficial “check in on everyone” strategy that general manager Ross Atkins has broadly used over the last five years, since the team’s rebuilding phase was ended when Hyun-Jin Ryu signed a four-year, $80MM contract. It therefore isn’t surprising that the Blue Jays also have Scherzer on their radar, both because Toronto is looking for rotation help and because Scherzer has some intriguing buy-low potential given his lengthy resume.
2024 was perhaps the least-noteworthy of Scherzer’s 17 MLB seasons, as he pitched a career-low 43 1/3 innings. Scherzer underwent back surgery last offseason and was expected to miss at least a bit of time at the start of the 2024 campaign while recovering, but subsequent issues with nerve irritation in his triceps, shoulder fatigue, and a hamstring strain resulted in what was pretty close to a lost season for both Scherzer and the Rangers as a whole.
At least the nerve problem seems to have been corrected by a mechanical change, as Scherzer relayed to reporters last September, and Scherzer is now over a year removed from his back procedure. While the right-hander has generally been quite durable over his long career, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the long grind of 2878 big league innings has finally caught up to Scherzer now that he has passed his 40th birthday.
Injuries notwithstanding, Scherzer was still able to post a respectable 3.95 ERA last season. His walk and chase rates were both excellent in his small sample size of 43 1/3 frames, though that great chase rate manifested itself into only a modest 22.6% strikeout rate. Scherzer also had a 3.77 ERA over 152 2/3 innings with the Mets and Rangers in 2023, which could be a better reflection of what might be reasonably expected from a healthy Scherzer at this late stage in his career — a solid mid-rotation starter who can still dial up some of his old magic every once in a while.
Scherzer and his former teammate Justin Verlander have often been linked together this winter as veteran superstars coming off injury-marred seasons, and Verlander (entering his age-42 campaign) inked a one-year, $15MM guarantee with the Giants two weeks ago. With Verlander now off the board, more teams could be looking at Scherzer, even if Toronto is the first club publicly cited as a suitor.
While the Blue Jays signed relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia to multi-year deals this winter, the Jays’ last two offseasons have been defined more by the players the team hasn’t signed rather than the players who actually put pen to paper. Toronto’s high-profile pursuits of Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Roki Sasaki, and several other top-shelf free agents ended with those players all signing elsewhere, creating the impression that the Jays front office can no longer seal the deal with frontline talent.
It hasn’t helped Atkins’ recruiting efforts that the Blue Jays stumbled to a 74-88 record last season, and finished last place in the AL East. The possible departures of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette into free agency next winter add to the uncertainty over the Jays’ long-term viability as contenders, or even if the team still has enough in the tank to make a rebound in 2025. “As currently constructed, the Blue Jays might be a tougher sell for” Scherzer, Nicholson-Smith writes, as even if Scherzer’s market might be somewhat limited by his age and recent injuries, he would surely still prefer to play for a contending team if he has options available.
Cubs Interested In Carlos Estevez, Were Runners-Up For Tanner Scott
7:15PM: The Cubs’ offer to Scott was a four-year deal worth $66MM, according to Jon Morosi.
5:43PM: Carlos Estevez ranked 22nd on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, making him the top reliever left available on the market now that Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, and Clay Holmes (who signed with the Mets as starter) have found new teams. As one might expect, Estevez’s “market is intensifying,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports, with the Blue Jays and Cubs among the teams in on the 32-year-old righty.
Toronto’s interest in Estevez was first reported last month, and the Reds, Yankees, and Red Sox have also been linked to Estevez at various points this winter. The Cubs are a new team in the hunt, adding to the perception that Chicago is willing to be much more aggressive than usual in pursuing relief pitching.
After the Dodgers signed Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal earlier today, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (multiple links) reported that the Cubs were second in the bidding, with an offer thought to be “in the ballpark” of what Scott received from Los Angeles. This tracks with the Friday report from Morosi suggesting that the Cubs were one of Scott’s “top remaining suitors,” which was the first time the Cubs had been linked to the southpaw all winter.
Coming even close to a four-year, $72MM offer for a reliever represents a huge sea change in how Chicago usually approaches its bullpen. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has never signed a reliever to a multi-year contract during his four-plus years in charge of the Cubs’ front office, and Hector Neris’ one-year, $9MM pact from a year ago represents the most money Hoyer has given to a relief pitcher.
Improving the relief corps was a stated goal for Hoyer heading into the offseason, and just earlier this week, the PBO stated that the team was still looking to add more to its bullpen. Chicago’s biggest bullpen acquisitions of the winter have thus far fit Hoyer’s preferred lower-cost models — a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Caleb Thielbar, and trading for Eli Morgan, who will make $950K in 2025 and is arbitration-controlled through 20227.
Porter Hodge looked tremendous in his rookie season, to the point that he took over as the Cubs’ closer down the stretch when the team’s bullpen ranks were reduced by injury. Hodge will certainly be in the high-leverage mix next year, though having him as a full-time closer could be a lot to ask of a second-year pitcher with just 43 big league innings on his resume. Adding a veteran reliever with closing experience like Estevez makes a lot of sense for Chicago, even if Estevez might ultimately end up as a setup man if Hodge can handle being the primary ninth-inning option.
MLBTR projected Estevez for a three-year, $27MM contract, though it is unclear what exactly Estevez and his reps at Premier Talent are looking to land in second foray into the open market. It is safe to say Estevez’s price tag will be much less than Scott’s contract, so if the Cubs were willing to venture into that spending area, Estevez should be well within their price range. Signing Estevez to something in the range of MLBTR’s projection would also match the $9MM average annual value of the Neris contract, which could be more palatable for Hoyer.
It was two offseasons ago that Estevez signed a two-year, $13.5MM guarantee from the Angels, but it is safe to say his asking price has risen considerably after he established himself as a viable closing candidate. Estevez has a 3.22 ERA over 117 1/3 innings with the Angels and Phillies over the last two seasons, and the 2024 campaign saw him reduce both his walk rate and (more troublingly) his strikeout rate. Philadelphia is seemingly taking a less-costly approach to its own bullpen, so there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a reunion between Estevez and the Phillies, plus Hoffman already signed with the Blue Jays.
Jeff Torborg Passes Away
Longtime former big league catcher, manager, and broadcaster Jeff Torborg passed away today at age 83, the White Sox announced. Torborg played for 10 seasons with the Dodgers and Angels from 1964-73, and then managed the Indians, White Sox, Mets, Expos, and Marlins over parts of 11 seasons from 1977-2003.
Torborg was the Dodgers’ backup catcher behind John Roseboro and then Tom Haller during his seven seasons in Chavez Ravine, and this tenure was highlighted by a World Series with Los Angeles’ 1965 championship team. That same season saw Torborg play a big role in one of the most memorable pitching performances in baseball history — Sandy Koufax’s 14-strikeout perfect game against the Cubs on September 9.
Torborg holds a unique place in baseball history as the only catcher who caught no-hitters from both Koufax and Nolan Ryan, as Torborg was behind the plate for the first of Ryan’s record seven career no-nos on May 15, 1973. Torborg also caught Bill Singer’s no-hitter on July 20, 1970, and is one of only 18 catchers to ever catch three different no-hit games.
Over 574 games and 1525 plate appearances, Torborg hit eight home runs with a career slash line of .214/.268/.265. He retired after the 1973 season at the end of a three-year stint with the Angels, and quickly moved into coaching with a job on the Indians’ staff in 1975. This led to Torborg’s first managerial gig, as he was promoted to become Cleveland’s skipper partway through the 1977 season, and he managed the club through the end of the 1979 campaign.
It took a decade for Torborg to become a manager again, as after he spent the next decade on the Yankees’ coaching staff, he was hired as Chicago’s new manager prior to the start of the 1989 season. He won only 69 games in his first year, but after the Sox surged to a 90-win season in 1990, Torborg was named the American League’s Manager of the Year. The White Sox won 87 games in 1991 to finish second in the AL West for the second consecutive season, as Torborg’s Sox were beaten out first by an Athletics team that won three straight AL pennants, and then by the upstart Twins who won the 1991 World Series.
This successful run in Chicago led the Mets to lure Torborg away to become their next manager, with Torborg receiving a hefty four-year, $1.7MM contact. Unfortunately, the 1992 Mets were one of the more infamous teams in franchise history, as the club’s splashy acquisitions of Bobby Bonilla, Bret Saberhagen, and others resulted in only a 72-90 record. After the Mets stumbled again to a 13-25 start in 1993, Torborg was fired with more than two and a half years remaining on his contract.
Torborg returned to the dugout in 2001 as the Expos’ manager, but when then-Expos owner Jeffrey Loria took over as the Marlins’ new owner prior to the 2002 season, Torborg also went to South Florida as the Marlins’ new skipper. Torborg had a 95-105 record in parts of two years with the Marlins, and the 2003 team went on to win the World Series after Jack McKeon stepped in as Torborg’s replacement. Torborg’s overall managerial record was 634-718 over 1352 games with his five clubs.
Both before and after these stints in Montreal and Florida, Torborg worked as a TV and radio broadcaster. He worked for CBS Radio throughout the 1990’s and for Fox in both the 90’s and 2000s, with Torborg calling Braves games in 2006.
MLB Trade Rumors sends our condolences to Torborg’s family, friends, and loved ones.
Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays Had Interest In Tanner Scott
Tanner Scott is headed to Chavez Ravine, as he became the Dodgers’ latest big-ticket acquisition when he signed a four-year, $72MM deal earlier today. The Cubs, Braves, Mets, and Yankees had all been linked to Scott’s market earlier this winter, but various reports from this afternoon indicated that the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox also had interest in the left-hander’s services.
The willingness of the Dodgers and other teams to give Scott four guaranteed years seemed to be the dealbreaker for at least a couple of teams. The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo wrote that the Orioles and Red Sox, respectively, each had misgivings about that long of a commitment. In particular, Cotillo poured cold water on speculation that Boston offered Scott a longer deal with a larger average annual value, as a source tells Cotillo that such reports of a bigger offer were “very inaccurate.”
The O’s still at least “remained engaged” on Scott “as of a few days ago,” Kostka wrote, which could speak to the team’s familiarity with the reliever. Of course, Scott began his career as a Baltimore draft pick and spent his first five MLB seasons in an Orioles uniform, posting a 4.73 ERA over his 156 innings out of the team’s bullpen. The big strikeout numbers and potential was clearly already present for Scott during his time in Baltimore, though it wasn’t until the 2023 season (when Scott was with the Marlins) that he finally seemed to solve his longstanding control problems.
Baltimore’s one-year, $10MM deal with Andrew Kittredge from earlier this week also seems to generally line up with Kostka’s timeline, so it isn’t surprising that the O’s moved away from Scott after landing another high-leverage reliever at a much lower price tag. Kittredge projects as the Orioles’ top setup man in front of closer Felix Bautista, who is returning after a year recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Kittredge is the highest-profile reliever the O’s have acquired this winter, while the Red Sox brought in Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson on guaranteed contracts, and a few other veterans on minor league deals. As Cotillo notes, the Red Sox had talks with Scott, Kittredge, and several other relievers who have since signed contracts, as Boston continues to look for help at the back end of its bullpen. Liam Hendriks is penciled into the closer’s role, though some depth is a necessity since Hendriks (like Bautista) also missed 2024 while rehabbing from a TJ procedure.
Toronto fans won’t be pleased to hear the Blue Jays lost another target to the Dodgers, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman indeed reports that the Jays “were among [the] teams in on Scott.” The depth of the Blue Jays’ interest isn’t known, and since the Jays landed Jeff Hoffman last week, it seems possible that the Hoffman signing was a pivot away from Scott’s escalating market.
That said, the Blue Jays have already been more aggressive than usual in adding relief pitching, which isn’t a surprise given the dire performance of their 2024 bullpen. Toronto has already added Hoffman, Nick Sandlin, and old friend Yimi Garcia as part of the bullpen overhaul, and depending on whether or not the Jays acquire another starting pitcher, Yariel Rodriguez might be part of the relief mix as well if he isn’t used as the fifth starter.
Cardinals Notes: Payroll, Rotation, Liberatore
The Cardinals are facing a major obstacle as they attempt to retool their roster towards a younger (and cheaper) product for the 2025 campaign: they’ve been unsuccessful to this point in their attempts to move on from veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s against that backdrop that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak revealed yesterday (as reported by Katie Woo of The Athletic) that the club’s payroll situation may not be quite as dire as it seemed earlier this winter.
“(Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.) is giving me a little bit of flexibility because we haven’t been able to accomplish what we thought we would by now,” Mozeliak said, as relayed by Woo. “He’s been very understanding about what that might look like.”
Mozeliak went on to describe moving a different significant salary like that of left-hander Steven Matz or righty Erick Fedde as not something the club would have to do if they’re unable to deal Arenado. While he acknowledged that making such a deal would be “helpful” from a payroll perspective, he also emphasized that he was not interested in making a deal “for the sake of just trying to get to a number.”
That the Cardinals’ front office won’t necessarily be forced to slash payroll in other areas of the roster if they’re unable to move on from Arenado and his salary is surely a relief for fans in St. Louis who are hoping to see the team compete in 2025. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $148MM payroll in 2025, which represents a $35MM haircut relative to the club’s 2024 payroll. Moving most of Arenado’s contract, which calls for the Cardinals to pay him $27MM in 2025, would come close to doubling the gap between the 2024 and ’25 payrolls. That would surely provide the club with the room below even their lowered payroll capacity to add talent to the bullpen and bring in a right-handed bat who can help balance a lineup that figures to revolve around Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, and Alec Burleson in 2025.
With that said, it seems as though Mozeliak is not interested in dealing away salary from his rotation in order to make those upgrades to other parts of the roster happen at this point. When he spoke at the Cardinals’ Winter Warmup fan event yesterday, Mozeliak made clear that he values the depth the club currently has in the rotation. With that being said, St. Louis has reportedly expressed some level of interest in reuniting with veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson throughout the winter, and it’s at least plausible to imagine a scenario where the club manages to trade away Matz or Fedde before turning around and re-signing Gibson for a lower salary than that of the starter they dealt. That could create some additional room in the payroll to sign a reliever or bench bat even in the event the club is unable to trade Arenado.
If the Cardinals do end up dealing from their rotation mix this winter, there’s one player in the organization in particular who could be poised to seize on that opportunity: southpaw Matthew Liberatore. A former top prospect who the Cardinals traded for in the deal that sent Randy Arozarena to the Rays, the lefty was mostly used as a reliever in 2024. While he made six starts for the Cardinals in the majors last year, only one of those outings saw the southpaw finish the fourth inning. That’s not stopping Liberatore from stretching back out in 2025, however, as John Denton of MLB.com relayed this afternoon that the lefty plans to work towards starting in Spring Training and throughout the 2025 season.
As Denton notes, it’s hard to imagine Liberatore finding success in the rotation over the long-term without substantial improvement against right-handed hitters, as he’s been torched to the tune of a .292/.368/.510 slash line throughout his career when pitching without the platoon advantage. That held true in 2024 as well, as Liberatore surrendered an ugly 6.16 ERA with a 5.22 FIP against right-handed batters this past season while limiting lefties to a 1.98 ERA and 2.59 FIP. If the lefty can sort his platoon issues out, however, he could be an option worth considering for the club’s rotation mix alongside right-hander Michael McGreevy in the event that the club deals from its rotation without bringing in Gibson or another veteran arm.
Rangers Notes: deGrom, Seager, Carter, Jung
Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom is enjoying the first fully healthy offseason he’s had in quite some time after returning from rehab for Tommy John surgery back in September. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, deGrom spoke to reporters about his outlook headed into the 2025 season and revealed that he’s begun throwing off the mound early this winter. The veteran hopes that building up towards pitching in games more slowly over a longer period of time than he has in the past will help him to stay healthy this season.
The 36-year-old is perhaps the very best pitcher in the entire sport when healthy, but maintaining his health has been a struggle over the past half decade. After winning back-to-back NL Cy Young awards with the Mets in 2018 and ’19 and finishing third during the shortened 2020 season, deGrom got off to an unbelievable start in 2021 with a 1.08 ERA and an eye-popping 45.1% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, he was sidelined in early July with forearm and elbow issues that ultimately ended his season. It’s been more of the same ever since, with deGrom making increasingly brief appearances in the majors each year but nonetheless continuing to dominate whenever he’s on the mound.
Since the start of the 2021 season, deGrom has pitched to a 2.01 ERA (200 ERA+) with a 1.63 FIP and 307 strikeouts in 197 1/3 innings. That would be on a shortlist for the greatest pitching seasons of all time if it hadn’t taken deGrom parts of four seasons to accumulate those numbers, and after watching Jordan Montgomery and Max Scherzer depart from their rotation in back-to-back offseasons the Rangers are surely hoping that they’ll get to see what deGrom can do over a full slate of starts this year. That’s something deGrom is fully on board with, as he told reporters (including McFarland) yesterday that his goal is to make 30 starts this year.
While McFarland notes that deGrom has not yet spoken to Rangers brass about his workload for 2025, the idea of a pitcher with deGrom’s injury history making 30 starts can’t be entirely dismissed. After all, southpaw Garrett Crochet made 32 starts with the White Sox last year despite not having pitched more than 65 innings in a season throughout college and his entire professional career due to injuries and time spent in the bullpen. The White Sox made that possible by aggressively managing his innings throughout the second half. He never recorded an out in the fifth inning this year after the calendar flipped to July and his pitch count maxed out at 77 after the All-Star break. Crochet, of course, is more than a decade younger than deGrom, but this sort of aggressive innings management could allow the Rangers to utilize their ace all throughout the regular season and into the playoffs without him needing to throw anything close to 200 innings.
deGrom isn’t the only key player for the Rangers who is hoping for better health in 2024. McFarland relays that third baseman Josh Jung, outfielder Evan Carter, and shortstop Corey Seager are all healthy and ready for Spring Training next month after undergoing surgeries in the fall. Seager underwent sports hernia surgery back in September but resumed baseball activities in November, while Jung and Carter are on a slightly more delayed timeline after undergoing wrist and back surgery respectively in October.
That trio being healthy and effective in 2025 would be a huge boon for the Rangers who failed to defend their 2023 World Series title in the 2024 postseason in large part thanks to a lackluster offense. Rangers hitters produced a collective wRC+ of just 95 last year as Seager was limited to 123 games by injuries while Jung and Carter managed just 46 and 45 games respectively. Seager remained as effective as ever when healthy enough to take the field with a .278/.353/.521 slash line in 533 trips to the plate, but Jung (102 wRC+) and especially Carter (80 wRC+) struggled to keep up with their expected production even when they were on the field due to the nagging nature of their injuries.
While the club has augmented its offense this winter by bringing in Joc Pederson and Jake Burger to replace Nathaniel Lowe in the lineup, better health from Jung and Carter figure to be necessary if the Rangers hope to look more like their 2023 offense, which was third in baseball with a 116 wRC+, than their below-average 2024 club in the upcoming season. Healthy seasons from Jung and Carter would also come with the benefit of pushing outfielder Leody Taveras and infielder Josh Smith into bench roles, giving them one of the deeper positional groups in the sport when fully healthy.
Seiya Suzuki To Be Cubs’ Primary DH In 2025
At the yesterday’s Cubs Convention in Chicago, manager Craig Counsell spoke to the crowd (video link) about the club’s outfield mix and clarified the Cubs’ outfield plans for the year. As Counsell lays things out, Ian Happ and Pete Crow-Armstrong will remain entrenched as the club’s regulars in left field and center field respectively, while offseason acquisition Kyle Tucker will take over as the regular right fielder.
That’s generally agreed to be the Cubs’ best defensive alignment as things stand and has seemed to be the most likely outcome ever since the Cubs acquired Tucker last month. With that being said, one side effect of making Tucker the club’s regular right fielder is that incumbent right fielder Seiya Suzuki will be pushed to DH on a regular basis this year. That’s a reality Counsell acknowledged, noting that Suzuki will DH “a lot” this season.
“We talked to Seiya this week about that, and he understands that, and he’s on board with that,” Counsell said, and he went on to note that they view Suzuki as an “extra outfielder” who can fill in for Happ and Tucker in the event of an injury.
Even so, it’s notable that the Cubs appear committed to Suzuki as a primary DH in 2025. Suzuki’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, spoke to reporters during the Winter Meetings last month about Suzuki and made clear that his client wanted to play the field. Wolfe even suggested that Suzuki likely “would not have signed with a team” who pitched being their everyday DH to him in free agency. Those comments helped to stoke trade rumors surrounding Suzuki throughout December, and while they started to die down after the club traded Cody Bellinger to the Yankees his name has continued to come up on occasion in the rumor mill.
Counsell’s comments yesterday seemingly put that conversation to bed, indicating that the club and Suzuki have resolved whatever discord may have existed between the sides over the issue. Given that Tucker is Gold Glove award winner who trails only Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge in Defensive Runs Saved as a right fielder since he made his MLB debut in 2018, perhaps Suzuki is more willing to move off of his natural position in deference to him than he was for Bellinger, who was an average defender in right field (+0 Fielding Run Value, +1 DRS) last year.
Even with Suzuki, Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, and Happ set to be regulars for the club in 2025, there appears to be a need for at least one more outfield-capable player on the roster. While Suzuki can seamlessly shift to a corner in the event that Happ or Tucker either needs a day off or heads to the injured list, there’s no clear backup to Crow-Armstrong on the club’s roster after the Cubs non-tendered Mike Tauchman back in November. Happ has the most center field experience of the club’s other regulars, but he hasn’t played a single inning there in the past two years and was last a regular fixture at the position back in 2020.
Alexander Canario and Kevin Alcántara are both on the club’s 40-man roster and capable of playing center field, although Canario has almost exclusively been used in the corners to this point in his big league career and the Cubs may prefer to avoid using a top prospect like Alcántara in a bench role. Should the club look for an external option capable of playing center field amid their reported search for additional bench depth, Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Pillar are among the bench center fielders still available in free agency.
Dodgers To Sign Tanner Scott
The Dodgers and left-hander Tanner Scott are in agreement on a four-year, $72MM deal, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. According to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Scott’s deal includes deferred money and a signing bonus, with FanSided’s Robert Murray adding that the signing bonus is $20MM while the deferred payments work out to $21MM. Scott is represented by the MVP Sports Group.
Scott was ranked as the #14 free agent in this winter’s class in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where we predicted that the lefty would land a four-year, $56MM deal. His deal with L.A. comes in well above that mark, but that’s not necessarily surprising given reports earlier this month that indicated Scott could land a deal with an average annual value in the $20MM range. Ultimately, this deal doesn’t go quite that far, though his $18MM AAV is still quite the premium for his position. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Scott is tied for the third-highest AAV for a reliever in free agent history alongside Liam Hendriks’s deal with the White Sox with the pair trailing only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. Meanwhile, it’s the fifth-highest total guarantee a reliever has ever landed in free agency behind only Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen.
The $21MM in deferred money in the deal could lower the contract’s net present value below this tier of elite closer, but it’s hard to deny that Scott belongs in that elite company based on his incredible numbers the past two seasons. He was among the very best relievers in the sport last year with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers were even stronger in 2023, as he struck out an eye-popping 33.9% of opponents and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Among qualified relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. Only Félix Bautista of the Orioles and Cade Smith of the Guardians rank above Scott in both categories, and neither pitched in both the 2023 and ’24 seasons at the big league level.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Scott is necessarily completely infallible. The southpaw struggled badly with his command earlier in his career, and those issues were a key factor in the lefty surrendering a pedestrian 4.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP over his first six seasons in the majors. That’s left Scott without the lengthy track record of many of his peers in late-inning relief, and even this past season saw Scott walk 12.2% of his opponents. Scott managed to stay elite despite that hefty number of free passes by keeping the ball in the park the past two seasons, and the changes he’s made to improve his batted ball outcomes appear to be sustainable. Opponents barreled up 5.4% of their batted balls off Scott prior to the 2023 season, but the past two campaigns have seen that number drop to just 4.0%. Likewise, Scott’s Hard-Hit rate dropped from 36.2% in his career prior to 2023 down to just 26.7% over the past two seasons.
The Dodgers are clearly betting on his performance to remain as elite as it has been the past two seasons. L.A. got an up-close look at Scott’s dominance during last season’s NLDS, when he pitched three scoreless innings against the club for the Padres and garnered five strikeouts- four of which were against Shohei Ohtani. Looking ahead to the 2025 season, they’ll add Scott’s high-octane arm to an already strong bullpen that also features Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia in the late innings. With Scott presumably taking over as the club’s closer, the Dodgers will now have the flexibility to use those leverage arms earlier in the game. That’s particularly useful in the case of Vesia, as he was the Dodgers’ only late-inning relief option from the left side last season.
Per RosterResource, the signing of Scott has pushed the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 up to just under $369MM, with a nearly matching luxury tax payroll of just under $371MM. Those figures don’t factor in the deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that still puts the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 more than $40MM higher than 2024, which was already a franchise record. They’re the only team spending even $300MM in payroll this year, and one of just three teams (alongside the Phillies and Yankees) with a luxury tax payroll above that marker. The upper limit on the club’s payroll capacity is unknown, but signing Scott (and Roki Sasaki last week) appear to have checked the final boxes the Dodgers were known to be pursuing upgrades for this winter. While further upgrades to the roster certainly can’t be ruled out, the club’s roster has very little uncertainty and it would hardly be a surprise if the Dodgers mostly stood pat over the final weeks before Spring Training beyond perhaps a long-anticipated deal to bring franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw back into the fold.
With Scott off the market, right-handers Carlos Estévez and Kirby Yates are perhaps the two best options still available in free agency for clubs on the hunt for bullpen help. Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, and Tommy Kahnle are among the other late-inning relief arms available. The Red Sox, Braves, and Cubs were among the other teams that have been connected to Scott throughout the winter, while the Rangers and Diamondbacks are among other clubs known to be in the market for late-inning relief help at this point in the offseason.
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