8:16pm: Oswalt is not close to signing, reports Morosi (on Twitter). The Red Sox remain very much involved, he says.
6:53pm: With the Marco Scutaro trade providing $6MM of salary relief, the Red Sox have now intensified their pursuit of Roy Oswalt according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (all Twitter links). They are not the only team in on the right-hander, though the Tigers are only on the fringe of the sweepstakes. Morosi calls the situation "fluid."
Oswalt, 34, is reportedly looking for a one-year deal worth $8MM. Earlier this week we heard that Boston would have to move some money to be able to afford him, which is exactly what the Scutaro trade did. Oswalt pitched to a 3.69 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 139 IP for the Phillies last season, missing time with back problems. Prior to that, the long-time Astro made at least 30 starts and threw at least 180 IP in seven straight seasons.
can he play shortstop
I seem to remember him playing outfield in that 20+ inning game against the Mets or something. Maybe he can play right?
He also played LF in an extra inning game against the Astros in 2010.
That was Kyle Lohse, Oswalt was the LF when Wilson Valdez got the win against Houston.
Win against Cincinnati you mean.
He played an inning out in Left Field last year, so maybe.
No but he can fill in for Crawford in left.
Good to see we’re all on the same page.
Have fun playing for third
Not that your comment really deserves a response, but here is one.
The best offense, best defense, and the 2nd/3rd best pitching rotation in the AL East doesn’t have the sound of third place(though nothing is predictable).
Let’s see how the Yankees’ new rotation adjusts to the best league and best division.
Honestly, while his comment is annoying, it IS going to be one heck of a division this year. Toronto’s still out of it, although they’re not easy to beat by any stretch of the imagination. Tampa has a terrifying rotation now with adding Matt Moore, and with the Yanks getting Pineda/Kuroda, the only major advantage we might have right now is in our lineup. And that currently has some of its own issues now as well. I’m not saying we’re bad, I’m very excited for this year. But this is going to be a tougher year than 2011 I think, and we all know how that ended. I think we’ve got enough to pull it out, but our team looks beatable against NY or Tampa right now.
BoSoxSam,
Thanks for the rationale and well-balanced assessment. This season should be quite a horse race with at least three thoroughbreds running for the roses Can’t wait…!
as a jays fan i disagree with this..
Outside of the 1st/last month of last year, the sox were the best team in baseball.
Their offense is probably the best in baseball. and to add to that, the second year after a shoulder surgery is usually when a players power comes back, which means adrian gonzalez will be even better.
“which means adrian gonzalez will be even better”
That is a scary thought for the league.. Every other aspect of his game was tremendous, with the sole exception of his power last year.
well he did hit 45 doubles.. but only 27 HR’s..
realistically when you take his old spray chart from san diego and apply it to fenway, you are looking at 40+ dingers..
but shoulder surgery, especially in the first year can sap a bit of your power. The guy is a premier hitting talent and one of the best thinkers in the game, there’s no doubt in my mind he will be even better this year.. and yes thats scary.
He acknowledged as much is August last year too, he basically said that his shoulder felt fatigued and that he would tell it was sapping some of his power.
Is their defense better than the Rays? Not saying you’re wrong by metrics but just from looking at names I’d say the Rays are better.
you’d be right. the rays follow that old fashioned pitching-and-defense-and-being-run-by-a-genius model
The Sox look like 3rd place with or without Oswalt.
that’s convincing
the best offense in baseball and a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Oswalt, and Bard = 3rd place?
“you’d be right. the rays follow that old fashioned pitching-and-defense-and-being-run-by-a-genius model”
How Earl Weaver managed to win/be competitive with his Orioles teams for decades.. His teams for the most part couldn’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag, but they always had the best pitching and defense in the game.
Oh ok, and I suppose that if the DeadSox signed Oswalt then he and your new closer Bailey wouldn’t have to make a adjustments coming to the best division in baseball? Not to mention the adjustment Bard will have to make in his new role…? Can’t say it can’t happen but I just love the hypocrisy…
Same adjustments Kuroda and Pineda would have to make.
DeadSox
Oswalt is another gamble for the Sox with back problems, I’m not even sure he wants to play in Boston.
If he wants to reestablish his market value he probably shouldn’t. If he wants to win it’d be a good decision.
Personally, if I was him, I’d go for the best winning opportunity because he’s going to have a hard time finding work in a market consisting of Hamels, Cain, Grenkie, etc.
He was healthy and pitching well when last year ended, so I don’t see that it’s a major concern unless they see something in his medicals/physical.
And my point still stands, it is the same adjustments.
Another collapse!
Please! Please! Please! Sign him NOW!
gonna miss scutaro…but happy this frees up money to sign Oswalt
Wow I did not see this coming…HA.
From the start of the off-season, Kuroda/Oswalt topped my list. I really REALLY hope we get him. The Scutaro traded was outright terrible but it will be a net gain if we get Oswalt out of this.
Lester/Beckett/Oswalt/Buchholz/Bard is great.
If this signing DOESN’T happen, Ben Cherington will officially be a failure.
yeah his whole tenure and body of work has been horrendous. This would cap it off
Yeah no. Considering his body of work involves helping Theo/Jed build a successful farm system, and making a trade with Jed that saved the 2007 season and gave us a WS title (Beckett/Lowell) I must strongly disagree with any assertion that he has anything but a strong track record. This is his first offseason and if he signs Oswalt he would have gotten one of the best FA bargains of the offseason and will be fielding a WS caliber team without giving up anything major and saving like 30M in tax money. Pretty good.
The point is, he has barely had a tenure as a GM so he should not be judged completely based on if he does or does not sign Oswalt. The person above me wants to condemn Cherington if the Sox dont get him
My bad thought you were serious.
lol if i was serious you easily provided evidence that he has had a good track record
I am an impatient Red Sox fan and right now Ben Cherington is one of my least favorite people. Don’t give me any of your “logic” 😛
Unless the luxury tax changed dramatically in how it is calculated your $30m figure is pretty absurd.
In the past the tax was based off how much you were over and how many years you had been over. Once those two factors were decided you paid a certain percent on the amount you exceeded the luxury tax by. At at 40% tax rate (as an example) you would need to exceed the luxury tax threshold by about $70m in order to pay $30m in taxes. Keeping Scutaro and signing Oswalt wouldn’t come close to the scenario you suggested.
Was just ball parking. As far as I know though the new rules increase fines for going over numerous years in a row or something. Either way if Oswalt is signed its still going to be at a great value, and we will have saved money from being conservative so while I grant you the numbers the idea is the same. Ben is doing a fine job.
Was just ball parking. As far as I know though the new rules increase fines for going over numerous years in a row or something. Either way if Oswalt is signed its still going to be at a great value, and we will have saved money from being conservative so while I grant you the numbers the idea is the same. Ben is doing a fine job.
The way it was explained in an article on overthemonster was that if the Red Sox go over the $178million limit they would have to pay 40% on each dollar they spend past the limit. The example given there is had they signed Edwin Jackson to a 4 year $12million per year deal they would end up paying $13.6million this year. If they go over the limit this year it would increase to 50% next year.
That was my understanding as well.
Let’s just say that they are at $178m with Scutaro. If they add Oswalt they would be at $186 + have to pay $3m in the tax. Net payroll is $189.
Since they have traded Scutaro they saved $6m. That drops them to $172m. Add in Oswalt’s $8m and they sit at $180m + $1m in luxury taxes.
The net difference between the two scenarios is $8m. The net difference in wins is more than that. Scutaro is a 3 WAR player. Aviles and Punto might get you a win between them.
All in all, for a club like the Red Sox this set of moves can comfortably be classified in the category of a penny wise but a pound foolish.
I want to know when the Red Sox started being a team that worries about money. Not like they’ve done anything but raise ticket/merch prices.
Hahahaha! I could only imagine how you would feel about Duquette if you were an Orioles fan. If Cherrington is to be a failure for not coming thru on Oswalt, what would you say to Cherington if he signed a Newark Bear. I would be more concerned about that Shortstop platoon that is laughable for an alleged Championship Team.
If he’s been a Red Sox fan long enough he knows all about Duquette.
I was about to say, I am well aware that Duquette is a horrible GM. I was around for the Jimy Williams/Joe Kerrigan debacle.
Rather have a couple offense holes and a top 3 offense then the offenses of the rest of the league. Whats laughable is that we lose our SS and its still not gonna stop us from scoring tons and tons of runs.
Sox won a WS with Julio freakin Lugo as their starting SS in 2007
And the Cardinals just won the World Series with Nick Punto!!!
Lugo didn’t happen.
Lackey didn’t happen.
JD Drew didn’t happen.
Does that make Theo Epstein a failure?
Theo is so overrated. After 2004, his only good move was the Gonzalez trade, which mostly was due to his connections with Jed Hoyer anyway. (Before anyone brings up the Beckett deal, let’s remember that that was NOT a Theo trade).
In between there, we got:
A failure to re-sign Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria instead, the trade of Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena, JD Drew, Julio Lugo, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Eric Gagne (for whom we gave up David Murphy), Mike Cameron, and Carl Crawford.
The man did a good job luring Curt Schilling to Boston and took a good flyer on David Ortiz back in the day, but his legacy is full of bad trades and terrible contacts, many of which are keeping the Sox from making the moves we need to make right now.
Could not have said it better myself. I agree with you. I know my last comment didn’t seem that way, but I really do agree with what you said. Though I wouldn’t go out and cal;l him a failure, because whether he deserves the recognition for our championships or not, he was still the GM then and he made himself look successful even though his deals were mediocre.
Aviles offers very similar upside offensively to Scutaro hitting in our lineup. Defensivley I don’t think he can be that much worse, probably has a bit more range. If he can show a little discipline he could be better than Scutaro, considering he has a bit more power and speed. As long as we get Oswalt I am not worried at all about Scutaro leaving. Lets bring this home Ben.
You should check the numbers. Aviles and Scutaro are nowhere close offensively. This is a 2 win loss by moving Scutaro.
I said upside. One full season in our lineup might turn that into numbers when he got to the team last year he hit well.
Scutaro was a 1.4 War player last year, Oswalt was a 1.7 and Aviles a .3. So if they sign Oswalt based on last year’s WAR they are adding .6 War. I would assume Aviles will get a bit higher WAR than .3 this year since he will get more at bats.
Of course thats assumin aceves would of had a war of zero.
Whys that?
Because Aceves would possibly be the starter that Oswalt would be replacing.
You can’t really compare 1 player’s (Scutaro) WAR with 2 player’s (Oswalt + Aviles) WAR.
Aceves started 4 games last season…Why not? Aviles is the replacement of Scutaro but the trading away of Scutaro allows them to sign Oswalt. If they dont trade Scutaro they dont get Oswalt…Therefore Oswalt plus Aviles is a better situation for the Red Sox than just leaving Scutaro at short and not signing Oswalt.
It may or may not be true that the Sox would be better off with Aviles at SS and Oswalt pitching every 5 days. What I am saying is that you can’t say that just by saying Scutaro = Oswalt + Aviles. If the Red Sox don’t have Oswalt to pitch, they are going to still send someone out to pitch. That might be Aceves, it might be a guy like Garcia/Colon that is cheap and produces way better than expected. Whoever the fifth starter is, you still need to add their WAR to Scutaro’s to get a fair comparison.
Their fifth starter last year was Wakefield. His WAR was .8. Obviously their fifth wont be Wakefield this year. But Wake + Scutaro is inferior to Oswalt + Aviles (at least in my opinion). For the upcoming season Bard is listed as the 5th starter but thats all up in the air. If they sign Oswalt or Jackson, Bard will most likely be back in the pen and Dice-K will bet the starter. Dice-k + Scutaro is still inferior to Oswalt + Aviles in my opinion.
Right their is in fact a number 4 starter that would no longer start when oswalt oswalt comes so u have to factor that players war as well.
What is Cherrington doing! Aviles is not considered a major league shortstop!
I’m not sure where you are pulling your stats. Last 4 years:
2008 – 2.9 WAR
2009 – 4.5 WAR
2010 – 2.4 WAR
2011 – 2.9 WAR
You will not replace that with Punto and Aviles. Oswalt certainly could tip the scale positively but he has to be healthy and has to be signed first.
Second time I got this today. I took the stats from Baseball Reference rather than Fangraphs. Why does everyone use Fangraphs?
Likely because they prefer the way their statistics are calculated to the way BR calculates theirs.
What numbers are you referring to? Scutaro has a .727 OPS vs Aviles .737… and a 93 OPS+ vs. 98, and both have exactly 2 seasons above 100 OPS+.
Neither are ideal options IMO, but if anything you should be complaining about the return for Scutaro opposed to his replacement.
I’m thrilled that the Red Sox made this move. It weakens them at SS and increases their payroll slightly (assuming that they do sign Oswalt).
Looking at career numbers is very misleading in this case. Aviles had one GREAT year – in 2008. You take that one year out and you end up with a very mediocre line:
270/301/388 over 884 PA’s that span 3 seasons.
Compare that to Scutaro where his 2009 – 2011 seasons resulted in:
284/356/404 over 1820 PA’s.
Scutaro posted an OPS+ of 102 while Aviles was at 87. That’s a pretty big swing in performance. Scutaro was a slightly better than league average hitter while Aviles was a significantly worse than league average hitter.
You can’t just take out his one great year, he’s only been in the big leagues for 3 years…Aviles is a career .288 hitter. Talk about cherry picking stats…You’re pretty much taking out Aviles’ best year and only including Scutaro’s best years.
Aviles has 3 full seasons in the big leagues and hit .325, .304, .255.
Aviles is a career .288 hitter and Scutaro: .270
Makes too much sense for it not to happen. Why wouldn’t one of the high payroll teams in need of pitching sign him?
I am overjoyed to hear, as a White Sox fan, that they are after Oswalt instead of a trade for Floyd. We South Siders REALLY need Gavin to stay put.
As a Red Sox fan I feel the same way.
Both fans opposing a trade means Kenny Williams will intensify talks.
“Boston to acquire Gavin Floyd.”
Both fans opposing a trade means Kenny Williams will intensify talks.
You sure youre a White Sox fan?
Of course! Floyd has averaged 4.1 WAR the last three years, and is still signed relatively economically. I understand Boston a) wanting a pitcher who is even better, especially for the short term, and b) not wanting to give up talent in a trade. So, no dissing intended, but I am glad to keep my guy.
I got an average WAR of 3.2 for Floyd the past three years. The point is that the White Sox are in a transition phase. Floyd is 28 and would net them some good pieces that would help the Sox in a few years.
Fangraphs has 4.5, 4.3, and 3.6 for the last three years. In what universe can the avg. be less than the lowest? But though Floyd could get your a few pieces if traded, what about being at least competative, and not throwing the whole season down the crapper? We already project Humber, Sale, and a rookie in the rotation, none who figures to exceed 175 innings. (Nor Peavy, for that matter.) If you trade Floyd, you have to go sign another innings eater, so what would be the point?
Id say their season is right on the edge of slipping into the crapper anyway. But I guess Kenny Williams can keep Floyd until midseason and then act surprised that his team is ten games under .500 and shop him around then. Look up^ I said I used baseball reference and not Fangraphs which is how we have different numbers.
4.5, 4.3, and 3.6 the last three years according to Fangraphs. In no known universe could that average 3.2. And, like you said, Floyd is 28. He himself should still be “helpful” in a few years. Plus, you need his innings now, with the other inexperienced and/or injury prone starters in the rotation.
Well I didnt use Fangraphs so that is why. I used baseball reference. I just think trading him would benefit the White Sox way more than keeping him in the long run.
Of course! Floyd has averaged 4.1 WAR the last three years, and is still signed relatively economically. I understand Boston a) wanting a pitcher who is even better, especially for the short term, and b) not wanting to give up talent in a trade. So, no dissing intended, but I am glad to keep my guy.
You sure youre a White Sox fan?
I laughed when I read this.
The Red Sox dump $6MM in salary in Scutaro and get who? Clayton Mortensen another relief pitcher with an occasional start. What are the Red Sox trying to do corner the market on relief/reclamation pitchers that no one wants? So they free up $6MM and trade their starting SS to potentially go after Oswalt who is looking for a 1 year $8MM deal or possibly Jackson who will command at least 4 years and $12MM per or Gavin Floyd via a trade with the White Sox for prospects and the 2 years and $16.5MM remaining due him.Doesn’t seem like the most logical way to get under or nearer the $178MM luxury tax threshold for 2012. In fact if they go through with any of those trades/signings it puts them further past the luxury tax threshold in 2012. And they lost/gave away their starting SS. So much for their confidence that Bard and Aceves could handle the starting job at the back of the rotation.
I asked yesterday when the subject of this trade came up. Who was steering the SS Minnow (AKA: SS Red Sox)? I guess we have our answer.
come on a’s, jump on this, $10-12 million if the red sox only offer $8 million
Sign with Minnesota Roy! Our staff needs a true leader with some past success. If the Twins don’t go after Oswalt, I really hope they can pursuade Edwin Jackson to join our velocity-lacking rotation.
Glad to see Scutaro gone. He had a nasty habit of being the right guy at the
right time for the Sox.
seriously. tons of clutch hits against the yanks and in other huge situations. Was one of the only positives in that historic epic September collapse.
Get it done and cross your fingers that his back doesn’t act up.
Great fit. Hope it happens
LOL, I am a Phillies fan, but the absurdity of the Paplebon signing just keeps coming back to the front burner for me.
Instead of $50 million for Paps, the Phillies theoretically could have had Ryan Madson, Aramis Rameirez, and Roy Oswalt, for about the same amount of money and years, of course, that is if Amaro didn’t act like a 18 year old at his first strip club.
This is why I like Ben Cherington so far. He is just waiting for all the dumb GMs to overspend on everyone. Then he is gonna sign the rest of the players for cents.
Even if somehow the Sox don’t end up signing Oswalt, they would have only done the Scutaro trade (I’m hoping) if they had a tentative agreement for SOME starter..maybe Hamels?
The whole process feels a bit backwards to me. I really thought that they would have made sure to sign Oswalt (or some mystery other) before unloading Scutaro. Now they are committed to bringing in someone now instead of being able to “wait it out and see” or even wait until the season gets underway and working a trade near the deadline if they could just stay in the hunt with what they have.
Seems to me that whoever they sign has way more leverage now.
Hamels is not a free agent.
Meant to say a tentative agreement with a player OR with a team for a trade.
This could work out for the Red Sox—IF he is healthy. That PawSox rotation down the stretch had to be pretty scary.
White Sox trade Gavin Floyd and SS Eduardo Escobar to rsox for Brentz and Britton,then kenny signs Cespedes
They better sign Oswalt and get a decent shortstop with low salary. Or do the sox plan on having Jose Iglesias step up and make the team as their starting shortstop?