It's been a bizarro offseason, with the Marlins spending freely, the Angels winning a top free agent, and the Yankees and Red Sox exercising financial caution. The Red Sox would have to make a move to free up payroll in order to sign Roy Oswalt, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford, putting a deal in doubt.
The Red Sox have maintained dialogue with Oswalt's agent in recent days, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, who feels the team must fortify their rotation. Reportedly, Oswalt is looking for about $8MM guaranteed on a one-year deal.
Do it. Who are our #s 4 and 5 right now?
It looks like Miller and Bard, lol.
Miller will be lucky to stay on the 40 man roster.. Aceves or one of the castoffs they just signed depending on who has the better spring.. Not sure id want both Bard and Aceves to leave the bullpen though
Tazawa and bard
Doubt Tazawa is in the rotation, especially to start the year. More likely Bard and Aceves/Doubront/Cook/Silva/and now Padilla if they don’t sign Oswalt.
Why sign Cook and Padilla, they should have put that money into Oswalt.
Well, I’m pretty sure all of Cook, Silva, and Padilla are minor league deals with invites to spring training so they wouldn’t even count toward the luxury tax unless they are added to the roster. They also would serve as decent depth and/or help the bullpen.
Just acquire Garza from the Cubs already.
I like where this guy’s going!
don’t worry. He will be the compensation for Epstein
Sure he will. Go ahead and hold your breath on that.
He was joking.
Sorry. The problem with dry humor here is that there are plenty of folks around here who ARE that thick, so sometimes, it’s hard to tell who’s kidding.
Oh the irony
Adquirí a Garza
This kinda bugs me. It’s a one year deal, you’re already over the luxury tax, you’re not actually hurting for money (you just want to stay close to the threshold), and you’ve finished in 3rd place two years in a row. Spend the frigging money.
Wasn’t there something in the new CBA though that makes the rate of the luxury tax go up dramatically for repeat offenders? That changes things considerably.
Yes, but John Henry is worth over 2 billion dollars. He has the money to spend.
Do you suppose that billionaires get to be billionaires by throwing money around indiscriminately?
If the Sox sign Oswalt for 1 year 8 million…yes they have to spend more on luxury tax. However, in signing him their chances of reaching the post-season is greater so the potential for more ticket, concession, and apparel sales also grows. Also, with the signing of Oswalt it could mean more apparel sales(Oswalt t-shirts, and jerseys). So that signing would potentially mean more money for the aforementioned billionaire. It’s not throwing money around indiscriminately if it is going to make him more in the long run.
Meh. Sorry. Double post.
While I agree with what you said in your reply–that he would need to weigh the costs versus the benefit–that’s not the same argument as you appeared to be making initially.
Also: bear in mind that the luxury tax hit is more complicated than just 50% on top of Oswalt’s salary.
First, if the Sox stay below $178MM this year, that drops their potential luxury hit next year down to 17%.
So, if the Sox are only over the cap by $10MM this year, but end up having to go over by $20MM next year, that means signing Oswalt will have effectively cost them $11.6MM in taxes.
Second, there is a little understood clause in the new CBA called the “market disqualification” clause. Basically, that clause says that big market teams shouldn’t get revenue sharing. And the savings to the pool can provide large market teams that stay BELOW the cap with savings of as much as $13MM a year on their revenue sharing bills. I don’t think that one takes effect yet, but it bears mention, as it is a potential game changer.
The bottom line is: owners aren’t just looking at luxury tax hits as a one year hit. They can hurt the next year’s books or even affect their revenue sharing bills in the future.
Yes, if they go over this year (which they already have, so it’s a moot point) their tax would go to 40% next year (or is it 50%?), and if they can stay under for a year it resets to 17% (which is the real incentive to get under). But where they are already over, and acknowledged that they would be, they should go all in (especially for one year deals like Oswalt) and shoot for under the tax next year.
Is the luxury tax this year still $178M? If so then with the roster as is, I’m estimating a payroll just slightly under that.
I thought it was 189 this year.
No, the new CBA made it so that it stays at $178M this year and goes to $189M in 2013.
Ah, thanks.
Yeah, still $178M. I don’t know the exact numbers but I saw somewhere the other day that by their own calculations they are already over the threshold. I’m also pretty sure that there is like $10M in medical benefits that they have to include in the calculation.
The Sox are lucky, they under paid Lester, Pedroia, and Youk. There problem is the graveyard of pitchers.
so lucky. no talent at all involved in signing those players to those contracts
I agree, most of the time pitchers like Cook and Padilla don’t work out.
There’s always a chance they work out (a la Colon and Garcia), but even if these guys do work out they aren’t as good as Oswalt.
They only seem to work out when the Yankees or Cardinals sign them
I chose my avatar specifically for comments like this…
I think Oswalt would be best in Kansas City.
The Orioles aren’t going to make any effort towards an Oswalt signing so why not head to KC. It would be good for baseball!
The bottom line is if the Red Sox are truly looking to move payroll to get this done, they should call up Theo Epstein and see what he wants to do since he was the one who caused the mess!
Bobby Jenks and his $6 million guaranteed looks worse than before right about now.
Really? It’s not that they offered Ortiz arb, signed Nick Punto, retained Andrew Miller and acquired Sweeny? At a total cost of about $22/23mm for all four in 2012. While I can’t fault them for any of those moves, well maybe offering Ortiz arb, I think in hindsight, they could have spent that $22mm a little better. You could have probably gotten Carlos Pena for $5.5mm, Oswalt for $8mm (or Kuroda for $10mm prior to his signing with the Yanks) and still have about $7mm-$10mm left which subsequently could have been used to sign Carlos Beltran. Beltran, Oswalt, Pena would have been far more effective than Punto, Ortiz, Sweeny, Miller and the cost would be the same. I don’t think Bobby Jenks is the problem here.
Pena makes zero sense for the Red Sox
So does David Ortiz, only Pena likely cost’s a third of the price. It’s not so much I think Pena is a great fit, his name was used in my argument to show that the money spent could have been used much better this offseason. At least Pena could have filled in for Gonzalez on days off and during inter-league, would provide a little more roster flexibility.
Ortiz makes tons of sense for the Red Sox; he was one of the better hitters in the game last year, and they were able to get him on the one year deal they wanted.
So does David Ortiz, only Pena likely cost’s a third of the price. It’s not so much I think Pena is a great fit, his name was used in my argument to show that the money spent could have been used much better this offseason. At least Pena could have filled in for Gonzalez on days off and during inter-league, would provide a little more roster flexibility.
Jenks, Lackey, and D- K, all look bad.
As does Crawford. I would love to see the Sox make a move for Oswalt . Even as an Oriole fan. Oswalt has been a favorite of mine for a while . I want to see him get a ring .
Don’t see much chance of him signing with the Twins or Royals as has been sugested by others . I think he will sign with the Rangers , along with Darvish and Prince Fielder .
The Angels have spent big this off season , the A’s and M’s aren’t contenders yet . The Rangers are seeing their hold on the AL West challenged . Their window for a championship could be closing .
Look for the Rangers deep pocketed owners to over load on talent in hopes of finally putting the team over the top.
Folks need to come to grips with the fact that the Red Sox aren’t adding a significant piece this offseason. They’re just not.
Thanks for the clarification. I wasn’t aware you were a part of the Sox front office.
No way, he will either sign with the Bo Sox or the Cards. Cards are looking to trade Lohse, Westbrook or McClellan (the last one seriously bothers me considering how well he did as a starter for us.) The only reason I think he will go to Boston is because the Cards would reportedly want to use him in a relief role unless they can move either Lohse or Westbrook.
No one else wants Westbrook, and both he and Lohse have no trade clauses anyhow. McClellan may get moved (no protection, and other teams may actually want him), but I doubt it.
Only way Oswalt ends up with the Cardinals is if he wants to take less money. Forget the “full rotation” problem. They’ll eat Westbrook’s salary and move him to the pen after a few weeks to make room for Oswalt.
Oswalt isn’t that big of a guy. I’m sure we don’t have to move the whole Payroll department just to fit him into the stadium.
Oswalt always puts a clause in his contract that allows him to park his tractor at the stadium.
we need a starter for the new season..but the best news for us is that lackey this year will be out..
This is why you don’t throw money at utility players before filling major needs.
Cutting Miller/Sweeney/Aviles/Albers probably would’ve paid for most of Oswalt’s salary, and all of those guys are easily replaceable with league min guys for 2012. Also, Jenks and his 6MM look bad.
edit: took out Salty and Punto. They were decent beyond a league min guy.
Signing utility players are important too because they can easily be snatched by other teams
Not nearly as important than filling major needs—like starting pitcher—though.
Similar players will still be available later in the offseason.
Pitching wins!
Saltalamacchia was worth 2.5 WAR last year. If you know where there’s a league minimum guy around ready to do the same, there are some GMs who would like to speak with you.
You’re right, my bad. Took out him and Punto.
But the others still would comprise a fair chunk of Oswalt’s potential salary. And you could throw in Jenks as well if you wanted to.
Miller is going to make spot starts, Punto will serve as a reliable bench player, Salty is the STARTING catcher, Sweeney is good when healthy and Albers had a great year minus two months. Aviles is insurance. Good try, though. Depth is key. Oswalt is a luxary at this point. Teams would be happy to have the limited holes Boston has to fill.
I took out Salty and Punto—since they were actually decent/good. My bad.
You’re missing his point. They all serve a purpose but all, except for Salty and maybe Punto, are easily replaceable players.
Those guy are all kind of necessary. Except MAYBE Miller or Albers. But Boston could use the pitching depth.
And most of those guys (especially Salty) project to be above replaement level.
Pretty much exactly what I just said above to someone else. I just think the Red Sox made some poor decisions this off season in light of all the other issues surrounding management. Let’s face it, it happens where managers leave, GM’s move on. Big deal, we’re all past that, but it still needs to be said that their current organizational decisions have been pretty awful this offseason, even the trade for Melancon, while useful, wasn’t great. I’m still shocked by the Bailey deal, perhaps one of the better trades of the entire offseason for any team, which begs the question; Did his arm fall off or something?
What was wrong with the Melancon trade? He has a lot of team control left and only cost us depth pieces with no real future on the Sox.
1. Ranaudo, Iglesias, Compensation for Garza, Marlon Byrd
2. Youkilis, Kalish, Iglesias for David Wright
3. Sign Oswalt 1/8mil
4. Sign Edwin Jackson 3/30mil
Which one(s) would you do if you were Ben?
I don’t think Wright is going anywhere. I would easily recommend Jackson for 3 years. As a fan of the Cards, I was excited to see him pitch for us. Jackson is a beast on the mound. His numbers might not be superb, but he is the definition of an inning eater.
David Wright will be a Yankee next year, A-Rod moves to DH.
Interesting , not sure the Mets would trade with the Yankee’s ? But it would be awesome to see this happen.
#3 by a long shot.
Why on earth would anyone trade Youkilis for Wright?
There are so many things wrong with that, I wouldn’t know where to start.
Because only GMs of the teams we root for have brains. Other GMs are easily fooled into taking lesser players for superstars.
LOL
How do any of these help?
Signing Oswalt definitely helps.
The money situation is what I’m referring to.
How do any of these help?
If I were in charge I’d go for #3, but if I were Ben I’d be an incompetent dolt and probably do #2.
$6 million with $2 million in incentives. Get it done Bo Sox.
Maybe they should trade for a cheaper young pitcher, like the Yanks did with Pineda. Bummer they have so much money tied up to injured players, Lackey and Dice-K making 30M to rehab.
They should have made a bigger deal with the A’s to acquire Brandon McCarthy or Dallas Braden. McCarthy would have been a great fit as their #4 starter. Not like they gave up much to get Bailey in the first place, they could have just thrown in another player or two.
lars anderson for?
You mean Dallas, don’t walk on my mound, Braden. What a joke of a pitcher. He was a flash in the pan.
If we didn’t waste our money on the likes of guys like Miller or Silva we’d have enough to pay Oswalt. I prefer Oswalt to Padilla as well.
All of those players are on minor league deals. Try again.
But money is money, and it doesn’t grow on trees.
John Lackey would be willing to trade his $$ for chicken…
When President Obama heard that the Red Sox were still talking to Roy Oswalt he was heard to say:
“The time for talk is over, the time for action is now because we know that if we do not act, a bad situation will become dramatically worse,” Obama said.
Keep in mind President Obama won the state of Massachusetts in 2008 by almost 800,000 votes and got a whopping 62% of the vote in Massachusetts. So he obviously knows something about what it takes to win there..
I wish they got Maholm so the 5 spot could be fought for by Silva/Doubront/Miller/Cook/Padilla/Doubront/Tazawa/Bard/Aceves and let the best man win. SOMEONE decent would have emerged from the pack. The chance two emerge is highly unlikely. I don’t think Bard is cut out to start.
What makes you say Bard ain’t cut out to be a starter? I’ve read some articles and I think he could pull it off. Keep in mind Dice-K’s coming back midseason.
Trade Scutaro and his $6M for whatever you can get, and throw Iglesias to the wolves, so to speak. I would think that that would free up enough money to sign Oswalt.
Nah, trade Carl Crawford for Soriano and Garza, then call it even.
What? I don’t even…
I guess that whole moving payroll part didn’t click, huh?
Couldn’t the Sox work the contract like they did Beltre’s and give him one year with a player option for like $1M, cutting his AAV to $4.5M instead of the full $8M?
Beltre’s player option was 5M I believe, and increased to 10M with 640 PA.
Right, but it was the same idea. Add a player option (that is never going to be exercised) to lower the AAV.
Either that or trade Youkilis. I don’t see what other options they would have for clearing payroll. They do still have Aviles, so he could always play SS/3B until Iglesias/Middlebrooks get called up. Plus Punto is in the mix but he can’t hit.
Youkilis is too valuable to the offense to trade for salary relief.
I saw Liverpool isnt having any problems bidding 10MM$+ for players so pony up and pay Oswalt
We should try to get Jenks contract eaten by including a nice prospect in a deal. Or just get Garza, we were trying to get Felix again this offseason and were turned down just use a third of what we offered for him to get Garza.
I don’t get how getting Garza would work but signing Oswalt wouldn’t. Assuming Oswalt will really sign for $8M he would be cheaper than Garza.
(this isn’t just to you, I’ve seen it said a bunch of times over the past month)
I am not an expert on arbitration but Garza should be around 8M this year. If it were a question of clearing 6M to get one or the other Garza would obviously be the ideal acquisition just because of age and prime years left. It would cost talent but a long term deal for Garza would likely be cheaper than signing Hamels or Cain next season, considering they have better seasons under their belts. We could clear the necessary room by moving Jenks with a solid prospect, or Scutaro if that wouldn’t work. We could then use Aviles/Iglesias in a platoon if we had to. I think the teams lineup would be great everywhere else so having a bit of a downgrade at SS in exchange for defense would be sort of like when we had Gonzalez there some seasons ago. Possibilities. If that were to go down we could use Padilla in the pen and as a spot guy.
Garza isn’t as good of a pitcher as those other guys, and as you said, he would cost prospects as well as money. And after making $6M last year, and having an outstanding year, he will likely be closer to $10-12M than the $8M Oswalt reportedly wants.
Like I stated im not great with arbitration raises so your likely correct. And I know Garza isn’t as good as Cain & Hamels and I stated as much by saying he would cheaper do to his resume comparably.
Right, but those are all just more reasons Garza doesn’t fit for the Red Sox.
Just throwing bones. Wasn’t sure about his raise so I couldn’t be sure he wasn’t comparable in price to Oswalt. I don’t expect this lux tax cap to continue forever so extending him would be plausible next season. I think the Sox will sign one of the best FA pitchers available next season cap or not so getting him now and getting the cheaper long term deal made some sense if he was comparable to Roy.
Eh, if they were to sign Oswalt this year they would have his $8M, Ortiz’s $14ishM, Jenks’ $6M, Scutaro’s $6M, and Dice-K’s $10M, plus being one year away from dropping Youk’s $13M (and all of them other than Dice-K are likely to be replaced by league minimum players). Plenty of room to add a one of the free agent pitchers next year.
I am not saying Oswalt would stop us from making a move next season, just tossed out Garza because at this stage he is more durable effective. Again this was only proposed on a tossed out arbitration figure which is apparently wrong. Then again if they could get him for a reasonable package they might just go over the line.
No, but Garza would stop us from getting one of those other pitchers next year. And I honestly think I would prefer Oswalt to Garza anyway (I’m still not convinced that the ‘new’ Garza is the real Garza).
Yeah I wouldn’t mind either one. Just some possibilities. The route that would coincide the most with this off seasons theme would def be Oswalt so I still see it as the vastly more probable acquisition. I do believe Garza is for real though. I think the SO could come back down slightly if he returned to the AL but I still think he would be very effective, and far more durable than Oswalt.
You’re not very good at this are you? You need very high level prospects to trade for a pitcher like Felix. You make is sound like they actually had a chance. Both the Yanks and Jays would have blown the Sox out of the water had Felix been available. As for Garza, just use a third? Like who. I don’t think you guys could even land Garza right now. You criticize me in another thread, but you clearly have no idea of your own prospect values.
We have lots of good prospects between the couple in the high minors and the many in the lower. I in no way indicated we were close to getting Felix, I only stated that we tried as it was reported on this site. As for the third comment I assumed our package would be enourmous for Felix as it was in years past so a third of that is not really far off from what it would cost for Garza. And we do have the prospects to land garza in fact some of ours match up pretty well with their needs like 3B Middlebrooks, who Theo obviously thinks highly of.
Take Oswalt for the 8 million? Id give him 5 million with bonuses up to 8 million(which he wont make besides eating up innings) They got arbitration BS to get through. What about Ellsbury to a “Lester/Pedroia” type extension? Trade youlk to the cubs for Garza, move Middlebrooks up and use him with Iglesis and Scutero.
Oh an Trade Lars Anderson while hes still hitting the ball.
Because another overpaid, under-performing hitter is just what the doctor ordered to fix the Cubs.
If the Red Sox include their top five or six prospects, you MAY get Theo to bite. Cubs are building for the future, not the past. No one is going to give up their best trade chip to pick up salary.
There is no way Youkilis is traded for Garza (it doesn’t make any sense for either team), but did you seriously just call him an overpaid under-performing hitter?
I’m just overreacting because I’m getting sick of seeing trade proposals which are ridiculously lopsided. While I don’t think this deal would make sense for the Red Sox (Garza’s due for a raise in arbitration, so this doesn’t save a great deal of money), it’s an even worse deal for the Cubs.
His $13 million salary this year is right about market value for a player of his abilities, but he isn’t getting any younger. Cubs are looking to build for the future. Youk’s best days are likely already past (age 32 is the backside of “prime”). While he’s still a decent player, he’s not someone you’re going to build your future around if your horizon is still three or four years away.
$13M is still well under market value for someone with Youkilis’ skill; before he was moved to 3B last year, he was better than most of the 1B who get $20-25M per year.
I agree that he doesn’t make sense for the Cubs, but it is because they are rebuilding and don’t need a “now” kind of player. It’s just not because of the contract or the talent.
I’m sure when they say they have to move payroll, they the arbitration BS.
Can Youkilis play LF? If so trade him to ATLANTA for Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens and a low level prospect
No and no.
no no no no no
Phillies will trade you youkilis for blanton and brown. I’ll give RAJ the call now.
Problem with an Ellsbury extension is that it would raise his AAV quite a lot, hurting their attempts to stay close to or under the luxury tax.
Dude, Ellsbury is as good as gone. No question about it. No one is ready to admit this yet, however. It’s cool.
That’s far from the truth. They will have a bunch of money coming off the books by the time Ellsbury hit free agency, and if he doesn’t repeat (or come close) to his production from last year between now and free agency he wont be nearly as expensive as you think he will be.
They have other options coming up through the minors, and there is a chance he does cost a ton of money, so it isn’t certain that he is brought back, but it’s also far from certain that he isn’t.
I’m not totally convinced of Ellsbury’s power, and I think the Sox FO aren’t either. Extending him would be taking a huge risk, so it would be wise to see his performance in 2012. The trade-off of higher price (if he repeats his 2011 performance) for lower risk is well worth it in this situation.
normally i’d see this as negotiating ploy, but he’s already down to $8M. shut your mouths and give it to him
If Oswalt is trying to restablish value than he should be avoiding signing 1 year deal with Red Sox.
You know, AL-East not the best division to restablish value for pitchers. He should sign with Rangers or A’s.
Rangers? Pitching half his games in that ballpark is a worse idea than pitching in the AL East.
Sign with the Padres then. Even John Lackey can passably pitch at PETCO!
For roughly the same price as Oswalt, Sox could get Garza from Cubs. Garza for Ellsbury, straight up. Who hangs up first?
Red Sox, after laughing really hard.
You have to realize “price” doesn’t just mean money. With your proposal, Garza and Oswalt wouldn’t even be close to “roughly the same price.”
First of all, Garza will probably get more than $8M in arbitration. Secondly, and most importantly, part of the “price” is whatever you part with to get Garza…and that’s where the price is high.
For roughly the same price as Oswalt, Sox could get Garza from Cubs. Garza for Ellsbury, straight up. Who hangs up first?
It pisses me off that we have to free up pay roll when we have one of the richest men in the world as ONE of our owners
Just wondering…since incentives (non-guaranteed salary) doesn’t count towards the team’s payroll, why doesn’t a team just give the player a guaranteed amount that will keep them under limit, while giving a ton of easily attainable incentives? And by easily attainable, I mean like $8M if he makes one start or something like that. So what I mean is that for Oswalt, a contract could look like $1M/1 year guaranteed, and $8M is he makes one start.
If this is indeed a possible scenario, how come no team is exploiting this loophole?
Saw it mentioned earlier but I think Ranaudo/Iglesias for Garza would be worth it. Garza’s pithced well both in the AL East and in the postseason, that’s what makes him worth giving up Ranaudo and Iglesias for..IMO.