Despite many rumors to the contrary, John Danks isn’t going anywhere. The White Sox announced that they have agreed to sign the left-hander to a five-year, $65MM contract extension. Danks will earn $8MM in 2012 and $14.25MM annually from 2013-16.
Danks would have been eligible for free agency following the 2012 season, his final year as an arbitration eligible player. Matt Swartz projected a 2012 salary of $7.6MM for the 26-year-old CAA client, who earned $6MM in 2011. That means the White Sox are paying $14-15MM for each of the four free agent seasons the deal buys out (Danks' age 28-31 seasons).
Jered Weaver's recent $85MM extension also covered one arbitration season and four free agent years. However, Weaver has superior career stats, was headed for a massive reward through arbitration and has finished in the top five in AL Cy Young balloting in both of the past two seasons. Weaver's deal was definitely out of reach for Danks and agent Jeff Berry.
Another comparable pitcher, Chad Billingsley, signed a three-year extension worth $35MM this spring. His deal covers his final season of arbitration eligibility and his first two seasons of free agency, which means Danks obtained two more years of security. However, Billingsley signed his deal (it's a team-friendly one) two full seasons before free agent eligibility, while Danks was just one season away from the open market. Danks and Billingsley are similar pitchers who have been compared to one another for years through the arbitration process.
Danks posted a 4.33 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 43.8% ground ball rate in 170 1/3 innings for the White Sox this past season. Only 16 pitchers in baseball have produced more wins above replacement since 2008 (15.6).
Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Jeremy Guthrie, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Jonathan Sanchez and Anibal Sanchez are among the 2013 free agents who might look to use Danks' recent deal as a point of reference should they discuss possible extensions with their current teams.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported the news (Twitter links). Doug Seyller reported the agreement on Twitter and appears to have broken the story. Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
No more trade rumors about Danks I suppose.
He could pull a ‘Sergio Santos’ and deal him after the extension. Although, this is different circumstances.
Those were my thoughts exactly. This makes him more attractive and more likely for other teams to give Williams what he wants for Danks.
Yeah, 13 mil a year isn’t that bad. And now he’s under team-control for 5 more years.
Yeah, he instantly becomes a LOT more attractive to a team like the Yankees or Red Sox, but I can’t see them flipping him now. With no pitcher signed past 2012, they need someone to anchor this staff for the future (along with Chris Sale, hopefully)
What a steal! Kenny gives a nice “FU!” to all the teams that wouldn’t give him what he wanted in a trade.
The bad part is, the white sox don’t get what they wanted in a trade. They just keep him.
Yeah, but you can’t force them to give you what you want, so you take your toys and go home
That’s not exactly an FU to the other teams. If the Sox are rebuilding, and many Sox fans have said they are (I haven’t read it first hand), then this is counter productive IF in fact they plan on rebuilding. The only way this would make sense is if they have a trade worked out and in effect this is a sign and trade. Even still, it would be an odd way of doing it.
It’s an “FU” in the sense that teams like the Yankees or Blue Jays may have said “Alright fine, hold on to Danks, get nothing for him, and we will just sign him next offseason anyway”, then Kenny goes and signs Danks to an extension.
And signing a 26-year-old pitcher for a very friendly 5-year is hardly counter-productive to a re-build, unless that rebuild is expected to take 5 or more years to complete. With the Sox financial situation, they should expect a turnaround by 2014, in which case Danks will still have 3 years with the team.
Still not an FU. It doesn’t HURT those teams at all. Yanks and Sox are actually looking for short term solutions which is basically why they passed on guys like Wilson, Buerhle, Darvish and exactly why they are attracted to guys like Kuroda and Oswalt.
The only person it could help is the Cubs, A’s and Edwin Jackson possibly.
I’m just trying to figure out if KW is rebuilding or retooling.
It terms of negotiating though, I bet the Yankees and Red Sox and Blue Jays all believed they had the upper-hand in the talks because everyone and their mother thought that John Danks would test the open market, so therefore he would become useless to a 2012 White Sox team that is obviously not going to compete.
“With the Sox financial situation, they should expect a turnaround by 2014, in which case Danks will still have 3 years with the team”.
Understood but it really depends on which way Danks is headed. Was last year just an off year or will he struggle again? His peripherals weren’t that much off from 2012 but still.
I don’t think the deal is really a “bad” deal I just sort of question the game-plan and the timing.
The “game plan” is certainly in question, but it’s not like Kenny made a series of moves to indicate a rebuild, and then came the extension. The only move made so far was the Santos trade, and while that signaled a rebuild to some people, it also opened up the door for Addison Reed to become the future young closer, and Nestor Molina to move in to the rotation by 2013. Moving Santos would not have been as significant as moving Danks, Floyd, Konerko, Quentin, or another big piece would have been. Relievers are the most replaceable piece on a team.
His peripherals are as good or better than last year. He just seems a little unlucky with a .313. BABIP and at 70% strand rate. He should be fine and this seems like a good signing price.
hardly call this a steal.
While not necessarily a steal, Danks should easily outperform this contract.
very possible. i just dont agree that it was a steal.
if he pitches like 2008, but the last couple of years weren’t 13 mil worthy years.
Actually, they were worth 13 million.
to kenny williams maybe, but nobody else.
Going rate for a win is around 5 million. 3.2 WAR last year equals around 15 million dollars of value.
So what you’re saying is that the White Sox can do no wrong in your eyes.
I’m a Rangers fan and couldn’t care less about the White Sox. It’s obvious you’re going to be a little biased considering you’re a Tigers fan. Either that or you don’t believe advanced statistics mean anything.
I don’t exactly follow how that’s the case but telling you what a Win is worth
so what you’re saying is that you don’t understand basic math.
And your numbers are way off. By your ‘5 million per win,’ Justin Verlander should have been paid $35MM this year and $40MM in 2009. The going rate per win is closer to $3MM. Which would make his best salary right around $9MM.
No it’s not, but keep believing that. You’re false analysis with no evidence (my evidence is fangraphs considers 1 win to be about 5 million dollars) means nothing.
EDIT: Unless, of course, we’ve entered a time machine and are in the year 2000.
Is it possible that fangraphs was saying that for position players? That would make a lot more sense. I gave you facts. It’s simple math. Verlander had a WAR of about 7 this past year. $5MM * 7 WAR=$35MM. You are not even close. Look again. I’d like a link, too if you don’t mind. Something has to give.
You can’t post links here, but look at Fangraphs: Win Values Explained: Part Six. Or Tom Tango’s post about Jose Reyes on Dec 5, 2011 at insidethebook.com.
Fangraphs – Win Values Explained – Part Six or Tom Tango’s website – specifically the post about Jose Reyes on Dec 5, 2011. Can’t post links here.
Jose Reyes is not a pitcher. I think you were looking at something for position players. It’s an easy mistake. I just think that $5MM is unrealistic.
Look at other pitchers values. It doesn’t add up to $5MM. There is a different formula.
There isn’t two different formulas……. The links I provided is the formula for all players, not just position players.
Go look at Mark Buehrle. He has averaged 3.5 WAR the past 3 seasons and just signed 4 years at 14.5 mil/season. He is also 6 years older than Danks.
Dude what are you talking about? Jesus Christ it’s plenty of articles for you to read to learn win values. His numbers are not way off. Fangraphs tells you exactly every year what a WIN is worth.
Settle down. Let’s talk like adults. There’s no need to be throwing out the Lords name in vein.
It doesn’t say that a win is worth $5MM. That’s just what the value for John Danks was. Verlander has a value of 31.6 and a WAR of 7. That doesn’t add up to $5MM. There is a seperate formula.
Don’t have a link, but im pretty sure it’s like 4.2 mil per win..
Apologies. Not trying to offend but this stuff has been covered in depth on fangraphs. Google. And 2011 values for Wins are still an estimate. As I said 3 million is way off. About 5 million is where it likely lands.
I said something to you below here that explains why I think that number is off.
like adults!
“So what you’re saying is that the White Sox can do no wrong in your eyes”
Ok?
if you “easily outperform” a contract, doesnt that kind of automatically make it a steal?
Could but unlikely…..
Assume they all have another stellar year in 2012.
Verlander = His per WAR value would be $2.85 mil ($20 mil in 2012)
Weaver = $2 mil per ($14 mil in 2012)
King Felix = $3.36 mil ($18.5 in 2012)
Danks last year had a 3.2 WAR. Let’s say he has a better year in 2012 and has a 4 WAR next year. At a salary of $15 mil he would be at a $3.7 mil per WAR rate. That means they would be paying Danks MORE per WAR than those 3 and getting significantly less in terms of production. How realistic is that?
No way do I see him “easily” outperforming his deal.
But that has nothing to do with the going market rate. The fact remains that he will be outperforming his contract based on the going market rate, not what aces do. Nowhere did I say he was on the same level as those pitchers.
EDIT: Why exactly are you comparing a solid #2 guy to the best pitchers in the league? You should do the same thing with other solid #2 guys.
I replied to your post but I was actually responding to someone (don’t see it posted, not sure if he edited) who said that Danks would easily get $15 mil + per year on the open market if he hit free agency. I didn’t agree. I choose to look at pitchers who recently signed extensions and what they signed for. I think it’s an absolute valid exercise to look at what others in his situation signed for vs what a free agent like Halladay or Lee signed for on an open market forum.
As for the way you choose to view WAR, that’s your prerogative. However, Doug Fister was worth $25 mil last year. Would anyone offer him a contract anywhere near that if he posted the exact same numbers until he hits free agency? Absolutely not so it becomes something interesting to look at in the fantasy leagues but meaningless when it comes to actual salary because it’s NEVER going to be anything a GM would consult in making his decisions.
Mark Buehrle has been a 3.5 WAR pitcher the past few seasons, about the same as Danks. He just signed for 14.5 mil/season and he is 6 years older than Danks.
You obviously don’t understand WAR. The avg cost per win is easily over 4 million a year. Danks easily with decent health outperforms this contract.
SOMEBODY understands.
SOMEBODY doesn’t understand the real world.
Im sorry. Did you create some new statistical measure for calculating wins that we are unaware of? Please enlighten.
Some of the values add up to dollar ammounts that no player has ever gotten before. So get a more accurate reading, you have to give it a little bit of a different formula. I judge it by about $3.4MM per win. That way, when you look at Roy Hallday, he is worth about $28MM and Verlander is worth $24MM. On the flip side, guys like Brad Penny are worth a little under $3MM. It just makes for much more realisic salaries.
Then continue using a formula no one else in the world uses and disregard the formula that’s in place.
Are you aware that not everyone uses the same formula for WAR. There is not a single accurate formula for WAR. The same goes for what each win is worth. Fangraphs, while being a very good tool, is not the desicion maker when it comes to all stats. You have your way of looking at it and I have my way. I just think that your way has weird value outcomes.
Common knowledge that people don’t agree fully on WAR. I have yet to see two different win value formulas though. Except, of course, yours.
It’s obvious that your mind is set and that you are not going to budge. I have given to my opinion and you jusst said it was wrong. Have fun felling like you’re smarter than everyone else.
Replacement level players should cost nothing then! 🙂
That is basically correct. A replacement player should expect the league min, about 500k, which in MLB is the equivalent of nothing.
Danks would have surely made $15M+ a year from the highest bidder next offseason
Yeah because everyone wants an 8-12 SP with a 4.33 ERA and 170 IP…..
I don’t think a Cub’s fan has any right to rag on anybody’s rotation or single pitcher, considering they have an absolutely terrible one themselves.
what an awful argument…
What argument? I don’t see one at all in my post. If you want me to argue, I’d say: Danks’ WAR last 4 years by season
5.2
2.9
4.3
3.2
Enough said.
now you’re using statistical evidence. your last post was garbage.
What exactly have your last two posts been? You do have extreme insight into the game of baseball, so let’s hear why you think Danks won’t be worth his contract.
i never wrote that. but keep making stuff up.
i wrote that i dont think the contract is a steal in one post and in the other wrote that it is very posssible that he outperforms the deal. never once did i write that he wouldnt be worth the contract- though i think that is possible as well.
Quite defensive, aren’t we? I’m going to guess you’ve had a bad day and need a hug.
Why dont’ you dial it back a little. You are being kind of rude to everyone who doesn’t agree with you.
not being defensive. just pointing out that you like to make stuff up when what people actually wrote doesnt fit your argument.
What else ya got?
And there’s my evidence. It’s no use in debating with this guy, he is going to do nothing but say he is right, you are wrong, and repeat himself 40 times.
Absolutely terrible ONE?
Touche. Should I have said 4, or 5?
Haha seriously as long as zambrano and marmol are on their team they have no right to talk
Look, man…I like the Cubs, and I’ve always been a White Sox hater. But if you’re going to judge Danks based on one season, you’re not a very good judge of baseball talent. With the exception of Matt Garza, I would trade the Cubs entire rotation for John Danks.
I am not challenging this argument. I agree with you on this post.
Matt Garza had a 3.91 ERA in 2010, and he sucks, right?
Lol. Did you just use a pitcher’s W/L record, ERA, and IP to determine value? Ohhhh boy…….HAHAHA.
CJ Wilson, a better pitcher with a better resume got $15 mil. How does that infer that Danks would’ve gotten more? And quite honestly, they SHOULD have been able to get him for less since it’s an extension AND because he wasn’t on the open market.
If you want to say he had better year, fine but people stop the nonsense. He does not have a better resume. Less WAR AND 4 year older. They essentially bought out his free agent years so sorry he would have done better on the open market.
wilson 78 FIP- 72 ERA- 3.80 SIERA
danks 88 FIP- 94 ERA- 3.96 SIERA
Did you really just use a stat that Baseball Prospectus retired???? A comparison of bWAR for real production ends this discussion.
did you really just ignore 2/3 of the data posted with a weak appeal to authority in order to avoid the point and protect your bias? discussion happily ended
That’s not relavant data. You ignored a mountain of data for true comparison. You’re wrong. Do you some actual research if you want a serious discussion.
who needs numbers when you can just say things authoritatively
nevermind that BP — whose retirement of SIERA you cited as evidence of that metric’s uselessness — uses both ERA and FIP, the two metrics you now call “irrelevant”
nevermind that by BP’s own blackbox measure, wilson (7) has been better than danks (5.4)
nevermind that even by b-r’s convoluted WAR calculation, wilson (9.3) has been better than danks (7.1)
nevermind aaaall the data that does not support my belief. i have an opinion and i can express it with authority. wheeeee
Do you even read BP’s explanation on the retirement of SIERA? Danks has produced 19.4 bWAR in 5 years. There is nothing convoluted about it all. One is better about measuring “real” production. Believe what you want this Danks trolling you’ve done for weeks is quite funny.
here’s funny:
“Fangraphs tells you exactly every year what a WIN is worth”
– Terry Dillard
“adjusted FIP (which is what fangraphs bases its win values on) is irrelevant”
– Terry Dillard
lol
The question I have about CJ is whether or not his BB/9 last year is sustainable for him, or if it will go back up to career norms.
I like CJ. His numbers are impressive in the short time he’s pitched but you can’t casually throw out he’s 4 years older.
5*
what are you asserting is his career norm? as a starter, it’s 3.52. overall it’s 3.75
in 2010, when it was higher than both of those numbers (4.10), his adjusted FIP was still 20 percent better than the league average – a level danks has only ever reached once in his career (2008)
Before he ever became a starter his career BB/9 was 4.1 2010, his BB/9 was 4.1. I don’t see why you think he all of a sudden learned how to walk a full batter less per 9 innings based on one season, when the 4.1 before 2011 came from 6 seasons.
you can’t create a career norm by taking out a season of his career
wilson’s control has always fluctuated, but he’s had more seasons in his career below 4 per 9 than above it. if you want to start chopping and selecting data, it was really just a 2-year stretch from 07-08 where he was wild
the weighted average for his last 4 seasons is 3.75 per 9
as i just said, even walking 4.10 per 9 in 2010 he was a better pitcher than danks has been in 3 years. he’s very unlikely to give up more HRs in anaheim than he did in arlington, so that’s not a scenario i’d be worried about
You’re getting me mixed up with somebody else. I have yet to say Danks is better than CJ. On the contrary, I know the opposite is true.
i know you do, but our exchange started when you replied to my comparison of the two. just finishing it off
Ahhhh. Been all over the place, so didn’t realize that. I’ve always liked CJ as a pitcher (not so much as a person), and do hope he has success (except against his former team). However, what I’m trying to point out is, I think his level of success last year is an outlier considering the decline of BB/9. By excluding his 2011, I guess I’m trying to prove he will revert more to his 2010, rather than 2011 performance (which is obviously still great).
Over the last two years, which is exactly how long CJ has been a starter, his WAR has been 10.5 vs Danks’ 7.5 over the same period. Not sure how that’s not valid.
The discussion is to show what a better lefty just signed for on the open market. He signed for slightly more than Danks did. Part of the reason why teams want to extend a player is to lock them and generally get them at below market value. Can you honestly say this was achieved?
Danks is 26. You do realize that right? I already acknowledged CJ was better last year. Danks had a bad year. Do you honestly think Danks best is behind him? Why would I look at Danks for 2 year when he has 4 years of data? The question was resume.
And if you’re comparing CJ “the starter” vs Danks “the starter” then the comparison is limited to the years…….THAT CJ WAS A STARTER…..which began in 2010. Thus I compared them from 2010-2011. Comparing CJ as a relief pitcher to Danks the starter is meaningless.
Wilson didn’t become a starter until he was 29 years old. So really, you could argue that Danks has 3 more years to improve until he should be compared to Wilson’s 2010 season. Either way, Wilson is on wrong end of his prime, while Danks is just approaching his. You pay a pitcher for future value, not past value. Danks is much more likely to outperform Wilson over the next 5 seasons….
That is the oddest logic and has ZERO relevance to what we are discussing for the purpose of 2012.
Not really. Who do you think will do better over the next 5 years? CJ Wilson or John Danks?
CJ Wilson is 4 years older, and just because CJ signed for $15M a year doesn’t mean he couldn’t have signed for more. Also, in case you didn’t notice, player contracts increase every year. $14M this year may be worth $15M next year. Contracts inflate pretty rapidly.
Wow….AJ signed for $16.5 mil 3 years ago and Lackey for the same 2 years ago. Your point?
I don’t see how you can pick and choose which contract signed in 2011 or 2010 are relevant and which ones aren’t.
I don’t even understand what you are even arguing at this point….
I’m talking about what the market is set at AT THIS MOMENT and you are saying that contracts inflate. No one has signed for what Lackey and Burnett signed for 2 or 3 years ago and they are in fact sub par pitchers (in terms of recent performances) compared to CJ and Danks. So while salaries DO go up, market value also fluctuates according to who is on the market and what their perceived value is at that time.
Also, the market has as much to do with the TEAMS engaging the market as it does the players ON the market. If the Yanks, Mets, Cubs, Sox and Phillies aren’t in the market for CJ Wilson and Yu Darvish in 2012 then why would you think any of them would spend $15 mil or more for Danks next year when there’s a lot more viable and better options set to hit the market next year when Danks is a free agent?
Lackey and Burnett are signed for awful contracts, I don’t see what relevance they have to this conversation at all. And as for the second part, I am just going to concede the argument and say you win because I have no idea where you are going with this or the point you are making, so let’s just end it here before this awful formatting system reduces our posts to 4 letters per line. lol.
Look at their respective ages. CJ is 31, Danks is 26. Youth pays on the open market, and in the extension market as well.
While Wilson’s contract was on the open market, he didn’t sign the best contract he could. He publicly said the Marlins offered more and the Marlins reportedly offered 6 years and 100+ million. Danks is also 4.5 years younger than Wilson.
I agree. he hasn’t been anything special since ’08. also had a pretty average season this year.
Obviously, these are the diehard WS fans that I have mentioned above. They are so biased they think whatever KW does is a blessing from god. Griffey….Dunn….Andruw Jones….
Must be, considering everyone is calling you out. Silly WS fans……..
…but he hired a manager with so much experience to coach up the young players through the rebuilding process.
Umm….Andruw Jones was a GREAT pickup. He was signed for $500K, and was worth $7M (1.7 WAR). Griffey was acquired for a bag of balls, and saved game 163 for the Sox in 2008 when he threw out Cuddyer at homeplate to preserve the 1-0 win. And Adam Dunn was probably the most consistent power hitter in baseball before last season, a season that NO ONE saw coming.
Got anything else, oh wise one?
This is simply not true. Danks produced a bWAR of 4.8 in 09 and 10 ages 24 and 25. Yes he struggled in 11. His whole team did. I’m tired of the this fake mlb reality some of you seem to live in. When you actually want to come to a “real” mlb reality you’re recognize Danks for what he is, a very good but not elite starter. Number 2.
To be fair….Danks had about the flukiest bad luck season in ’11 of about anyone in baseball. He got zip run support half the season, and when he did seem to get it..those were the times he didn’t pitch as well. I call mirage on last season. I’m not stating he’s going to blow up and become a complete ace…but he’s closer to that than what was seen last season.
no other team wants to pay a number 4 14 mil per season. if his f.u was overpaying big time on a decent pitcher, i dont think anyones gonna feel the shaft. i’m a cards fan and he would be our numbr 5 behind carp,wainwright garcia and lohse who all outperformed him this year(except wano but i think we can all agree he’s better
When you say “Cards” I assume you mean Arizona Cardinals, because clearly baseball isn’t your forte…..
what did i say that was incorrect? look at the numbers.. he would have been our number 5 this year….how can you not get that???
________________________________
Yep AL Central vs NL Central apples to apples NOT! Carp older than old, Wainy coming off of TJ surgery, Garcis went straight downhill as the seasoned moved on, Lohse ahead of Danks = no. That said I love Carp and Wainy but dude your staff is gonna be overhauled sooner than later.
I’m not entirely sure this makes him less tradable. Knowing that he’s under control for 5 more years rather than one could be more enticing for some teams that have money to spend for him and are in need of pitching.
Very good point. Unless there’s a signing bonus, this extension might not cost the White Sox anything, and could very well guarantee that the haul Kenny Williams wants could happen. Danks as a trade candidate just became much more valuable, in my opinion.
I’m with you there. This exact situation happened to Bronson Arroyo with the Red Sox. This now opens Danks’ market to the mid-salary teams who were hesitant to make a move knowing they would only have Danks for 1 year. Now 5 years at $13m per makes him appealing to about 20 ballclubs
I think teams are LESS inclined to offer top prospects if they know they are also on the hook for $65 mil.
Earlier I suggested maybe there’s a sign and trade in the works.
If I’m a GM he was more appealing when it was a 1 year risk as long as the prospect costs were reasonable. Now that he’s owed $65 mil what’s my motivation to spend the same or more prospect cost to acquire him now ESPECIALLY since his 2011 performance was less than spectacular?
If this were Mat Cain (or someone similar) signed for 5/$100 then that would be a different story.
Because he’s a 26 year old who hasn’t had a season below 2.9 fWAR in four years.
Do you think teams really care about what he did 3 or 4 years ago or what he’s done lately, as in the last two years? It makes absolute sense for the Sox NOT to bail on Danks considering their long term investements in him. However, teams are absolutely going to look at his recent performances. NO ONE IS SAYING HE’S A BAD PITCHER or not a #2 (barely) or #3 (more reasonable). But a 5/$65 after the season seems like an overpay, certainly in years, if not annual money.
Danks was worth 3.2 WAR last year with about a 3.80 FIP/xFIP. That’s easy #2 material.
FIP is an evaluative tool. it’s not exactly what he did on the field. Great for analytic purposes to determine FUTURE performance.
Derek Lowe had a 3.70 FIP last year. Does that mean he handed in the performance of a #2 caliber pitcher last year with a 5.05 ERA? And using the 1 WAR = $5 mil logic then Lowe was worth and deserving of $12.5 mil last year. Most would disagree.
We have to really be careful of how we use metrics sometimes.
NEVER mention Lowe again.
– Braves fans
…
Since the White Sox seem to be rebuilding, would the fans of the White Sox give me their opinion on this extension? I like it, myself.
I personally love it. It’s a win-win. Most teams did not want to trade him since he was only under control for a year, now they get five years. Or we get him for five years.
No…most teams didn’t want to trade him because KW was asking for too much AND he was 1 year from free agency.
With all the question marks regarding a guy like Gio and Garza why do ppl act as if this makes Danks more appealing? He has as many question marks as the other two.
Teams PREFER short term commitments on players that are a little “iffy”.
Teams PREFER long term commitments for players they have solid faith in AND require a prospect bundle in return.
Yanks would’ve love to acquire a “Felix Herndandez” because while they would have to sell the farm they know they would get a few years from him.
Yanks would love to acquire a Danks if the prospect cost are reasonable (meaning no Montero, Bans or Bets) and then deal with his pending FA when the time comes. If he has a great 2012 then they have the money to sign him. If he sucks then they cut bait.
Someone suggested that 20 teams would/should be in on Danks now. What 20 teams are willing to spend $65 mil on a #3 type? Yanks and Sox have just had their taste of those types that have blown up in their faces. The Rangers, Angels, Phillies don’t need him. Who else?
I’m not sure that the White Sox are in total tear down rebuild mode. They still have some large contracts on the roster that would be hard to deal. they are certainly likely to get younger though.
Whether they keep him for the next 5 years or are just going to flip him now that he is signed to a reasonable deal for the next 5 years I think this was a fantastic move. Even if KW does still want to trade him he just increased his trade value significantly. I personally hope he stays though.
I like it. While I don’t claim to know what Williams is up to, it doesn’t really get in the way of a rebuild because he’s young, talented, a lefty, singed under market value (probably) and around for 5 years. If the plan is for a 3-year rebuild, this is just fine. And if Williams is going the route of contention, this makes even more sense. PLUS, he can still trade him (pending contract amendments like NTC) and probably get much more than he otherwise would have. I don’t see how this can be a loss at all, barring injury.
Gavin Floyd for sale?
Humber,Sale, Axelrod, Stewart all are potential starters for 2012. The only sure things are Danks and Peavy.
With a team-friendly contract, Floyd could be gone.
I think larger dimensions will help him out, too.
MERCY! Thank you, Kenny Williams for this awesome Christmas present to the fans.
Surprised. Not because he does not deserve that kinda money or not because I did not see this coming. But for the direction of the club. I thought they were in rebuilding mode. Nice bump in his salary though. Wish I could have something similar.
Boy that Kenny Williams sure knows how to rebuild.
This does not make Matt Garza very happy. Sets a favorable bottom line for the Cubs to bargain with him. While Garza has slightly better numbers, Danks signs this at 26 while Garza will be 29/30 when he signs his FA deal.
I doubt it, Garza is a better pitcher and his agents if they’re good swill sell him as an ace. I’d say Wilson’s contract is a better idea of what Garza will start at.
I expected to hear that but if I’m the team I can make an argument against CJ too. First off he has less wear and tear converting from RP and his numbers in the past 2 years are actually better then Garza’s. The reason why this wont matter (and why I shouldnt even have bothered) is because Garza will ride out these next two Arb years and then enjoy the benefit of negotiating with all 30 teams, instead of 1.
I don’t trust CJ either but I think Garza can still get at least $15M a year on the open market.
Good News Everyone! (BTW not sarcastic, I completely agree with your point)
I read that in the voice of the Professor…..
As much as what everyone else is saying is possible, I don’t think it’s likely he was given an extension as a poker chip to get a better trade deal.
Seems KW decided that he wasn’t going to get good returns from his biggest guys, so instead took a guy he could rebuild the starting rotation and the team around for the next half-decade in a similar role that Mark Buehrle has been in the past 5.
With guys like Chris Sale, Phil Humber, Zach Stewart being built up as starters, the rotation is set up to be fierce in the coming years if Danks is the centerpiece of the rebuilding.
My only question to is if he was a trade chip earlier, what changed between then and now?
I’m not saying you’re wrong by any means, but I truly believe that this move was made only because it’s going to make it far more likely Williams gets the pieces he wanted to begin with with him being under contract for and extra four years.
You could pose that same question to yourself. If Kenny really thought he could get better options, why didn’t he to winter meetings with an extension already in hand?
My point is, that after going through winter meetings and all the recent chatter for a trade probably gave him an indication that he wasn’t going to get the pieces that he wanted to do a full rebuild of the team, so instead of doing that, he probably felt a partial rebuild around a solid guy like Danks would be a workable idea.
I’m not saying that’s what happened, I’m certainly saying that it’s possible that the extension was done as a chip to throw into the pot, I just get the impression that it wasn’t given the timing.
But who knows. We will see.
I don’t think he went into the Winter Meetings with the extension because of C.J. Wilson was still available as well as Yu Darvish.
To be completely honest I think the talks during the Winter Meetings was to measure any interest in him, not anything too serious. Now that the two biggest pitchers are off the market, Danks becomes even more valuable. Add in an extra four years of control and he becomes as big of a trade chip as there is.
I completely agree that Williams could just as easily keep Danks around, but I am leaning more towards not.
See, what I really can’t get over is why would Danks sign an extension if he had any expectation of getting traded?
If he made it on to the open market next year he could (probably) command more money than the 13 mil he’s getting with this extension.
I mean I really can’t say I know, but if it were me, I’d forego the extension and just wait the year to see if I could do better instead of signing an extension and being moved anyway, particularly a guy like Danks who’s been pretty consistent and wouldn’t need the type of job security someone like CJ Wilson would need as a relatively new starter just in case he started to lose it for whatever reason.
You make an excellent point about waiting. I’m not sure why he would. I would sign it regardless of how much they told me I’d stay put with the rumors that were floating around earlier. I completely agree with you on that point.
It could be that he was promised to go to a contender if he signed the extension. I really have nothing else, that’s an extremely good point.
Not exactly, injuries are always a possibility and you also never know if he would under perform. This was a good deal for Danks because he gets reasonable money, he knows that he is going to be taking care of, and that he is not going to be traded. This is exactly what all the regulars on the Sox site were pushing for. We wanted the Sox to either decide if they were going to lock Danks up or trade him. I’m glad they chose this move because a lot of experts really tried to down play his ability. He is a guy who is a proven starter who can hold a low score for you late in games. He also will make the workload easier for our pen and also open up the rotation for players like PV, Humber, and Floyd. If anything look for a Quentin or one of the smaller pieces like a De Aza or Lillibridge to get traded.
Hmm, this extension could definatley come up in talks to extend David Price….
More talented but further away from free agency, 5/60 should about do it for Price.
I don’t entirely know that the Rays want to do so. They showed when they signed Moore that they aren’t afraid to commit to players with little big league experience to long contracts.
I would agree, however, if they do what I think the Sox will do with Danks and trade him.
lol keep going…higher.
4 years of Arb (he’s a Super two) and I would guess he starts off around $7-8m this year…I think they may just take this year to year. It’s too late to try and lock him up and they’ll enjoy the four years they have with him and maybe trade him (like the rumors were with Danks) in the offseason before his impending FA season.
I’ve been thinking of ways a Price deal can work for a while now. It would have to be back loaded but all Rays deals are.
2012: 6 million
2013: 8 million
2014: 10 million
2015: 12.5 million
2016: 14.5 million
2017: 17 million option/3 million buyout
2018: 19 million/4.5 million buyout
It guarantees him 54 million over 5 years while giving him the chance to make another 36. Yeah, Rays never gave a deal like that to anyone but they never had a Price, a proven ace. Moore looks to be a future ace but still not proven and Shields signed his deal when he was only average. Price would cost a lot more.
I’d love it if that could happen, but it can’t. The Rays simply don’t make enough money to sustain a salary like that for one player. Look at James Shields…he’s only making $7M in 2012 and the trade rumors are already flying. Until the Rays either get a better stadium or move to a better city, they’re always going to be trading away their biggest stars for prospects.
Joe you make a valid argument but Colin is right. It’s too big of a risk for the Rays. And what if (I know we can play that game for days but…) Price goes down with TJ or regresses. The Rays are stuck with a huge salary they can’t afford to pay or eat in a trade. They’re going year to year with this guy for the next 4.
Absolutely. I completely agree. It’d be nice if the Rays could pull that off, but I just don’t see it happening. They are the new Oakland A’s, but better.
Better than the A’s yet we suck against them, every year.
Crazy how that works, isn’t it?
Sox get a great deal here for Danks. If I had to guess he is hear to stay.
…almost spelled “here” right.
Well now we know what Boras would want for Edwin Jackson.
This is a win win for the Sox. They will still try to trade him and will get better value for him if they do decide not to keep him. If they hold on to him, they have a solid pitcher at the top of the staff. Last year was bad, I will admit, but I think this year will be much better.
Sox fans needed this after losing Buehrle. Danks is the most beloved pitcher they had left and to see him and Mark go in the same offseason would have been pretty demoralizing to the fan-base.
I’ve noticed that so often the picture of the player signed/traded for is at the Trop. Wonder if there is anything to that….
Probably already been said, but this is good news for billy beane! one more pitcher taken off the trade/free agent market
One reason he might have has is worrying about an injury. He can sign now for $65 million guaranteed or hope he makes it through the season uninjured and has a good year heading into free agency. If he were to blow out an elbow or shoulder he would ruin his chances of a big payday.
oops that was meant to be a reply to someone else.
Perssonally I don’t think this means anything.. I am a Sox fan and I think there may have been a bigger market for Gavin Floyd than John Danks.. Also when there are pitchers like Gio Gonzalez (23) and Jair Jurjens (25) still on the market both 1 to 3 years young than Danks (26) the market for a pitcher even a lefty goes dry..
Did Gio get a time machine or something? I’m pretty sure that Gio was born on Sept. 19, 1985. That makes him 26. The same age as Danks.
My Bad
I have to wonder if KW saying he was “rebuilding” was not a smoke screen in the first place. That gets teams to make you offers, by which to judge what your players – like Danks – are really worth. I am sure the Sox want to trim a few million. But they are going to have to pay Dunn, Rios, and Peavy no matter what. But if 2 of those 3 comes back to their own career averages, Morel Viciedo and Alexei continue to improve, and we get something good for trading CQ, then the team is still competitive in the AL Central.
Your comment doesn’t have anything to do with anything, but that’s ok, my previous comment didn’t either. The fact remains that you still vire WAR in the wrong way.
Boy, the trolls are out in this thread.
Kenny Williams is probably the worst GM in baseball. Name the last good move he actually made? I dont count Konerko, he more or less said he came back because of Reinsdorf . Rios, Dunn, Peavy, Santos, matt Thorton. between bad trades, and bad contracts through trades and signings, any other gm would have been fired over and again. He is impulsive and rash, and does not every appear to look at a big picture. Outside of Sale, who have they actually produced as a prospect? Why does he still have a job? Teams with albatross contract surely call him first to attempt to unload them. The guy is a joke.
“Does not ever appear to look at a big picture”……what do you call the Santos trade? That’s big picture thinking saying “Hey, we aren’t going to compete for the next couple years, and we have a very young closer to replace him, so let’s go ahead and trade a reliever for a 22-year-old starting pitcher with a high-ceiling”. Seems like the epitome of “big picture” move.
And as a Tigers fan, you can’t help but be a KW fan.
They say they are rebuilding, this is not rebuilding
For crying out loud. Anyone who has paid attention to KW knows he is not interested in rebuilding. Never has been, never will be.
Chicago Tribune Dec 6, 2011
“In another sign they are entering a rebuilding phase, the Chicago White Sox traded closer Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday for 22-year-old right-handed pitcher Nestor Molina.
“It is the start of a rebuilding,” Sox general manager Ken Williams told reporters in a hotel suite. “And you guys know I have not used that word in 12 years. But it is the start of a rebuilding. Now, is it the start of falling-domino rebuilding? No. Absolutely not”.
—————-
Now it may not mean a complete house cleaning but he made it clear they are rebuilding.
IRRELEVANT!
Kenny also uses the media a lot to disguise his moves. I mean, how often has a White Sox move ever been coming from a mile away? Last year he told us we were cutting payroll, and BAM, we sign Konerko, Dunn, and AJ in the same week. He plays games in the media.
And the article before that stated specifically that they were “not fully rebuilding” and that they would only make it a “modified rebuilding” year. Which means that they would move pieces not in their future for younger guys. That’s why they had this article out about Santos. Because Addison Reed is taking over and they wanted to get what they thought was fair market value for a closer not in their plans like Reed is. They have a lot of faith in his ability. He has a low era and a solid strikeout rate. I can’t wait.
This isn’t “not rebuilding” either. Re-signing Buehrle, who is in his 30’s, would be the anti-thesis of rebuilding. Resigning a 26-year-old pitcher who is going to anchor the future is hardly a step in the wrong direction. Rebuilding does not mean “not spending money”.
The general thought is what 5 mill per 1 War right? So all this talk of him being over rated and not worth 13 per mill a season is just wrong. Even in a down year he still put up 3+ war equalling 15+ mill in value… Seems like a win win deal. Not super team friendly but not an over pay just a good solid deal by Kenny. Even if they are rebuilding it’s nice to lock up a solid young pitcher with a ton of upside. Also if a trade comes up the team knows he is locked up at a fair value. Just an overall good deal for both sides. Also people who don’t like the deal simply don’t like te whitesox or don’t like Kenny Williams. Just admit it people.
So then Halladay should request his contract to be redone since he’s under paid by about $15 mil per year.
That WAR monetary value is really a measure for fantasy purposes and has ZERO place in reality and how much teams dole out on salary.
Players don’t ask for contracts to be “reworked” in baseball. They don’t “hold out” for more money. Save that for greedy NFL players.
You do realize halladay was very public when he took a team friendly contract to be with the phillies… Also I know gms don’t look a war vs money. I was using it as a reference showing that it’s not a massive overpay. He easily could have gotten that contract on the open market maybe more. What with your hate of this deal? It’s not like the Burnett deal…. Kidding just poking fun.
You dole out contracts based on what you reasonably expect the player to do in the future. Any reasonable baseball fan expects him to perform much better, but the price still comes down because Danks has to be worried about the chance that he has two off seasons in a row and whiffs in his one shot at free agency. This deal was below market value, and I can’t believe anyone would say otherwise. You put too much stock into one year and not enough into projections.
It changed when the offers weren’t what Williams wanted and Danks’ price came down. It’s a reasonable thing to do. You should accept any good, young player at the right price, even in rebuilding years.
How good I’d the free agent pitching class going to look next year? If it has some big names, maybe danks didn’t want to wait because he might not appear as valuable.
Yeah, rebuilding doesnt totally make sense to me. Why not see if Dunn, rios, and beckham wake the hell up and see what happens?
I dont think anyone said the Dunn deal was bad when he signed it.
I honestly think WAR value has diminishing returns…this is why a 3 war guy might fetch $15 mil, and an 8 WAR guy sure the hell won’t fetch $40. $/WAR apparently decreases the higher WAR is.
Decent FA pitchers in ’13, assuming they stay the way the list reads.
First!
This move seems like a huge reach of desperation to me. They are trying to keep up with Kansas City & Detroit…..Danks is not worth $13 million a year
oh good lord.
It’s certainly not a team friendly deal, but the salary is a little lower for ’12. There are some big contracts coming off the books after next season. It’s a certainly a gamble that the White Sox are oft to do.
I guess Rios and Dunn weren’t enough. This is a sub 500 team looking at a 120M payroll again. I know he brought them a World Series, but maybe Kenny Williams needs to go…
The White Sox management rolled the dice last year and came out with a loss. Last years team had the reverse of a “career year.” It seemed that nearly every player on the roster vastly underperformed even average expectations. Still they were very close to .500. I’m not going to say that this team looks like bottled magic going into 2012…because I think Williams will make a few moves between now and Opening Day…but I almost think that the White Sox are being written off TOO easily. They played horribly for much of last season and were almost .500.
Last years team had Buehrle and Jackson. Even if this staff has an “up” year, I can’t see them pitching any better than last year. But as far as hitting goes, I think they can definetly improve. Dunn can definetly be better, and Rios, and Beckham…but in baseball sometimes players just tail off.
They’re far from a perfect team on paper. They are counting on too much bounce back and injury return for my general liking. Lots of “Ifs”. I’m guessing they add a starting pitcher via trade. I can still see Quentin being dealt. One of these days not having a farm system is going to cause some problems. They don’t even have much to deal from.
They’re far from a perfect team on paper. They are counting on too much bounce back and injury return for my general liking. Lots of “Ifs”. I’m guessing they add a starting pitcher via trade. I can still see Quentin being dealt. One of these days not having a farm system is going to cause some problems. They don’t even have much to deal from.