After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2010-11 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2010 season running through August 22nd, 2011. Click here to go to the rankings directly if they don't appear below.
We've updated the rankings to reflect Kelly Johnson landing with the Blue Jays and Aaron Hill with the Diamondbacks. Hill maintains his Type B status, though he's close to none. Johnson climbs to Type A status, though he could easily fall to B. Johnson accepting arbitration wouldn't be all that desirable, and I can see that happening if he's a Type A, so it's not necessarily true that the Blue Jays made this trade to take a shot at two draft picks.
Johnson is an A type but Escobar is a B type, I call shenanigans
Its based on the statistics from the last two seasons thats why.
the jays could have 3 picks in the top 30 and another 5 sandwich picks next year. awesome.
I wouldn’t count those sandwich picks as given though. Molina looks safe, but Rauch and Encarnacion are right on the edge, and Rauch is hurt. Plus, I’d bet that Encarnacion and Rauch accept arbitration.
Rauch would accept but there is no way EE would accept with the year he is having.
I don’t see why AA wouldn’t exercise EE’s option next year.
I think he will but IF he does decline the option and offer him arbitration to get a pick, EE would certainly decline it.
Actually Rauch is still young and there was some interest from teams for at the deadline. Hes not going to cost teams any picks and he can probably make more in free agency than arb.
Glad to hear that he’s a type A rather than a type B, since he’ll be more likely to stay.
Can we get some clarification on Michael Cuddyer here from Bajek? He has consistently been one of the highest Type A’s in all of baseball in all of the previous projections up until the last 2, and then dropped all the way down to Type B, in the span of a few weeks. There’s no way that happened legitimately. There’s either a flaw in the last two calculations for him, or there was a flaw in the calculations previously. Could we get some clarity on this?
I’ve been wondering this, too. He’s also listed now as ‘1B’ – perhaps the curve is harder for them is he’s a 1B? Incidentally, I looked up his starts over the last two years. When this was run, Cuddyer had 2 more starts over the last two years at 1B than he did in OF. As of today, it’s tied.
It would be amazing if the difference between him being type A or Type B was how many starts he had in OF vs 1B. If that’s the case, the Twins need to get him as many OF starts as they can.
John, I don’t believe that’s the case. DH/1b/OF count in the same group, so that shouldn’t effect his status/ranking at all.
I see Mike Gonzalez has been rated “none”. He’s been lights out the past month, what would he have to do to get rated a B?
lol
Create the flux capacitor and rent a DeLorean.
Best obnoxious answer I’ve read in awhile….haha
It’s based off of what’s he’s done over the last two years so what he does for the rest of this year probably won’t be enough to net anything for the O’s if/when he leaves. Besides, the O’s would have to offer arbitration to him where he might end up making more money if he accepts which he probably would.
Oh how pleasing it is to see Mauer ranked below Detroit. His line this season isn’t great for any position, let alone 1B or RF.
He’s been playing hurt. He’ll bounce back to the all-time great player that he is next season.
I still don’t get the Jays acquiring Johnson unless he’s actually counting on him accepting arbitration. If he holds that Type A status, who is realistically going to go after him considering his career numbers? If I’m looking at second basemen and I’ve got two guys with a career OPS in the same general range at about the same age, I’m going to pick the one who isn’t going to cost me a draft pick.
The only candidates I can think of who’d go for Johnson if he costs a pick is a team who’s already signed a Type A or two, and I really can’t think of any teams likely to do that who don’t already have a second baseman who’s much better than him.
So worst-case, he goes free agent, doesn’t get picked up and the Jays get a shot to sign him cheap. Or he accepts arbitration and the Jays get a shot at developing him into his last year’s form. At least the probable expense is lower with him and there’s less time between when he was in-form.
It was a safe move for Toronto and one that potentially gets Hill and McDonald in the playoffs, either of whom could come back to Toronto next year without losing a draft pick. I doubt anyone will offer McDonald the type of cash Toronto will as a defensive super-sub.
Or coach, he may want to go out on to and retire
Really if you look at his numbers, hes just having an unlucky season on the batting average side. Other than that he has great numbers for a second basemen, hes still a top 15 second basemen and a lot of teams need a second basemen and him,Cano, Phillips, and Infante are the only good ones available. Hes still young, still has a great swing, solid defensively and can still hit for power and since alot of teams need second basemen hell fit in great. If not the Jays were looking for a temporary second basemen and by trading for him they dont have to give up their first rounder to aquire him, and can get him for a bargain if he accepts arbirtation (he has to or risk going unsigned). If he declines he either get the Jays another first rounder and comp pick or he re-signs later on for cheaper because teams do not offer him a contract.
But I just don’t see where the logic in it all is. Johnson was allegedly a Type B in waiting in the NL, so the Jays could’ve gotten him without giving up a pick next year AND gotten a pick for Hill on top of it.
They effectively switched borderline identical players AND gave up McDonald at the same time all the while taking lower odds at getting draft pick compensation. I don’t see how, in any way shape or form, this move improves the Blue Jays now or going forward. Sure, maybe the change of scenery is beneficial, but that’s only going to be applicable for the next month. Past that, I don’t see how they’re better off with Johnson than they were with Hill and McDonald.
hill would never ever decline arbitration, so no pick from him if toronto keeps him. he just walks
if they were going to sign johnson in the offseason, they’d have had to either pay him more than the $6M he’d make in arbitration with arizona or commit multiple years to a guy who has upside but who has also been really bad two of the last three seasons
mcdonald and hill are both impending free agents, losing them is losing nothing. they can brick back mcdonald if they want to. what they gain is an opportunity to secure johnson on a one year, $6M contract — something they almost certainly couldn’t get without making the trade
so in short, i agree with you that all the talk about draft picks is moot and not actually a reason to praise the acquisition of KJ. but i don’t think that’s why he was acquired anyway. instead it seems to a cost-cutting measure in part of the process of bringing in a player AA has a crush on
Actually in the old Elias ranking he was still ranked as a Type A but borderline. Hes another lefty bat that can fit in great on this team, if not no biggy. Johnson has an opportunity to work with one of the best hitting coaches in the game (Dwayne Murphy), and he gets to play in a homer friendly park. Hill wasnt a power hitter but since Murphy is a coach that bases his training around power, Hill wasnt working out. Hills down fall came when Murphy came and changed his swing from quick to power.
What does bold mean?
Showing an ability to take risks; confident and courageous.
Also, impending free agent.
Pretty cool that Martin will be a Type A. I’m thinking the Yanks will bring him back next year but if they don’t then I’m sure he’ll be offered arbitration, will decline it and some team will be more than willing to sign him.
Martin’s had a good year, but it’s pretty doubtful any team would give up their 1st (or 2nd, depending on the team) rd pick to get Russell Martin.
Tim – I disagree with you about Johnson. I think that his 100 points of OPS make him a much more attractive free agent than Hill. And because he is a more attractive free agent, I think that he is “more likely” (there is obviously no certainty) that he declines an arb offer. Hill on the other hand is more likely to accept in the hopes of building his value back to his 2006 value.
Johnson probably has a shot of finding a 3 year $20M-ish contract. Whereas Hill is probably going to have a problem finding a one year $7M deal.
How in the world is Carlos Pena a Type B free agent?
How in the world is Carlos Pena a Type B FA?
Show some respect for the NL Comeback Player of the Year: Lance Berkman.
Finally a type A- Should be a no brainer to offer arb regardless of Pujols situation b/c you either have an offensive threat on a 1-year deal or two draft picks. Makes the Cardinals offseason even more interesting.