The Diamondbacks acquired second baseman Aaron Hill and shortstop John McDonald from the Blue Jays for Kelly Johnson, tweets John Gambadoro Sports 620 KTAR. Both teams confirmed the trade in a press release.
Johnson, a favorite of Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, has slumped to .209/.287/.412 in 481 plate appearances this year. He has $1.16MM remaining on his contract and projects as a high Type B in the National League. He's probably still at least a B in the AL, which has to be Toronto's motivation in acquiring the impending free agent.
Hill, 29, has been worse than Johnson at .225/.270/.313 in 429 plate appearances. His $8MM club option is expected to be declined after the season, at which point he'd be a Type B free agent. I'm not sure what Anthopoulos gets out of the swap. Maybe he thinks Johnson will be a Type A and will decline arbitration, or maybe he's just more inclined to offer arbitration to Johnson than Hill. Or, maybe he hopes to extend Johnson cheaply. Hill has about $990K remaining on his contract. McDonald, a defensive whiz, has about $300K remaining, so the money is pretty close.
From Arizona's point of view, McDonald can pitch in at shortstop with Willie Bloomquist, since Stephen Drew is out for the season. As for liking Hill over Johnson, perhaps GM Kevin Towers feels a change of scenery will help, or he prefers Hill's defense.
The Diamondbacks and Blue Jays last matched up on a trade three years ago, when the Toronto acquired David Eckstein for Chad Beck.
Traded to D-backs with John McDonald for Kelly Johnson.
If this is true the Jays will have lost a truly great infielder… and Aaron Hill
Was gonna lose him anyways. Doubt AA would’ve picked his options.
Let me guess… Aaron Hill and Francisco for Justin Upton?
yep on jays message board someone posted it wayyyy before
i think this is true
I dont mind Johsnon
Johnson is basically 2010 Aaron Hill. He’s obviously an improvement over 2011 Aaron Hill, but that’s not saying much.
Agree. Likely AA will get comp pick for losing Johnson and promote Hech.
Ahhh, forgot Johnson’s an FA after this year.
Why would he promote Hech?
not clear that Hech will be ready by next season (unless we want to see a sub mendoza BA).
not clear that Hech will be ready by next season (unless we want to see another sub mendoza BA).
fixed that for you.
yea no kidding! look at how bad he’s struggling in AAA right now: .435/.490/.565
that’s 50 plate appearances what is wrong with you
he hit .235/.275/.347 in 500 plate appearances at AA this year
What’s wrong with me? Look a little closer at his stats: he hits .235 in 500 PAs, would you or anyone predict that if he’s promoted he’d hit .435, even for his first 50 PAs? No. You’d predict a sub mendoza BA.
Look at 2010: he hits .193 in 167 PAs in high A, earns a promotion, then hits .273 in 273 PAs at AA.
almost any professional prospect can get hot for 47 PAs in the minors
but i am getting that familiar sinking feeling that you are one of those guys with an immunity to logic & reason, so i think i will save any longer explanations of data and instead just mock you for your focus on batting average in small samples
it’s not even about him being hot in AAA
its about facing inferior pitching in a great hitters environment.
Well to be fair, he hasn’t played in hitters park until just recently at Vegas and I don’t think he’s even hit in those 2 or 3 games.
He was pretty hot too for a few weeks before getting promoted.
he had the third lowest OPS amongst SS in AA before he was called upp..
David Cooper’s numbers are ridiculous, yet he won’t even be a bench player for the jays..
Most teams don’t put their best pitching prospects in the PCL, a lot of the parks are small and the air really carries.
Now to be fair on Cooper, he has a .962 OPS in away games this year. Buuuuut, he’s probably a .850 OPS, .340 wOBA guy at the MLB level, max.
but its not just vegas that has an advantage for hitters, its all of the PCL..
The league average is .293/.350/.440
My point has nothing to do with those 47 ABs. It’s that your batsh|t stupid to assume AH’s BA will be sub-mendoza based on his AA stats.
quote me saying or even implying that
lulz. so by your calculations, he’ll hit .700 when he’s promoted to the MLB. moran.
yea bro, that’s exactly what I calculated. good eye
It’s just a gut feeling but I think that Hech is going to be a player that hits about the same at every level that he plays at. i don’t see him ever being a great hitter maybe peaking at about 280/330/400 and usually around 250/300/350 line but his defence is what is going to be his ticket.
i don’t have anything bad to say about the kid. i just can’t say anything good about him from that 47 PA sample
KJ on a one year deal is a safer play than calling him up, i’d wager
Absolutely agree, wasn’t arguing, just adding a little to the pot. I don’t know if the plan is to move Hech to second, and I don’t think I would agree with it anyways.
Why wouldn’t Johnson accept arb?
The team would have an agreement with him not to. Happens all the time.
True. But it only happens when the player feels he could get equivalent money elsewhere.
It’s not like the team goes, we’re gonna offer you arb, but you have to turn it down.
“oh… ok :(“
Shaun Rachau (the D’backs PR rep) just confirmed on twitter Kelly Johnson to Toronto for Hill and Josh McDonald
So the Jays keep Johnny Mac? Sweet!
whoops, meant john. Can’t keep these guys straight sometimes
Weird trade. Both are useless offensively, but at least KJ has some pop. Hill’s power seems completely gone. I guess Hill/McDonald is a pretty significant defensive upgrade.
They both have pop, maybe some change in scener helps them both!
UZR seems to like Johnson defensively this year and last year. Hill hasn’t been that good defensively… at least not like in the past.
I don’t like losing Johnnymac because he’s so awesome but I like the trade. Johnson was fantastic last year.
DRS and +/- both rate johnson pretty poorly this year and below average most of his career. they have hill as below average this year but above average most of his career
DRS and +/- both rate johnson pretty poorly this year and below average most of his career. they have hill as below average this year but above average most of his career
Johnson was very good last year, but he did most of it at home, and he was terrible the year before and he’s terrible this year. Nothing for Toronto to lose by kicking the tires on him, but he might just be a Marcus Giles type.
All hail AA.
Honest question: are you happy about this trade? I’ve always liked Kelly Johnson and I hope he can get things figured out again. Maybe the Jays will give him a great chance to do that.
As a Nats fan, your GM makes me even more ashamed of my own GM, heh.
To be honest, it’s likely only a move to grab comp picks from Johnson.
could have gotten a comp pick from hill. johnson isn’t likely to go anywhere if he becomes a type A
they’re the same age, both having terrible years and making almost the same money. i don’t think this is about compensation picks. it’s probably about a mancrush on kelly johnson
I have a hard time seeing Hill decline arbitration.
Anyways, the deal doesn’t have to be about the pick, I doubt AA is that desperate to get picks. He tried to get Johnson before and Jays obviously need a 2B so he could just be out 2nd baseman next year until they find someone else.
i have a hard time seeing either declining arbitration
Agreed.
Good thing AH is a lot worse than KJ
in what way?
obp and slg%
Look beyond batting average. Johnson is having a significantly better season than Hill, both offensively and defensively. The difference between Johnson last year and this year is almost entirely BABIP. Johnson is a much, much better bet to get a comp pick.
who are you predicting will offer him good money over multiple years such that a one-year, $6M contract to rebuild value and hit a weak free agent market at age 30 would be the inferior option?
Didn’t say it was a certainty, said it was a much better bet than with Hill. Which it is.
didn’t say you said it was a certainty, asked you to provide evidence that it’s a “much better bet than hill”, rather than simply reassert it
Sorry, my evidence is that Johnson is more productive than Hill, and thus more likely to receive a favorable contract. I’m not really inclined to go through every team and evaluate their off-season plans at 2B, but I think the “better player = more likely to decline arbitration” thesis is sound, no?
sure, but if that likelihood range is 1% v. 10%, it doesn’t matter at all
Sorry, my evidence is that Johnson is more productive than Hill, and thus more likely to receive a favorable contract. I’m not really inclined to go through every team and evaluate their off-season plans at 2B, but I think the “better player = more likely to decline arbitration” thesis is sound, no?
probably would not have gotten the comp for hill. Why would he turn down arbitration? He almost certainly wasn’t going to get more on the market. he could accept arb and try to rebuild his value.
i agree, but that doesn’t distinguish him from johnson at all
I think it has to do w/ preserving Hill’s comp pick, more than anything. If you look at his past Elias rankings this year, he’s starting to drop like a rock, almost to a level of non-compensation. 64.57 to 60.84 from late June ’til today, with ~57.7 being the current cut-off.
Meanwhile, Johnson could have bumped himself into the Type A bracket in the NL with another of his hot streaks…which could have led to no FA market for him. What team’s going to give up their first pick for Kelly Johnson??
Hill’s value is likely boosted in the rankings by moving to the NL, Johnson’s is probably lowered by going to the AL. Both keep B status, which is what the clubs (and potentially the players) prefer.
Compensation pick preservation at its finest, folks…
-C
…neither is going to receive a strong multi-year offer such that they’d decline arbitration raises on their $5M salaries at age 29. they’d accept, attempt to rebound, and hit a weak free agent market in 2012 and age 30
i don’t see a case for compensation picks being the main motivation for either side here
I can see Johnson getting a two-year deal w/ enough guaranteed money that it makes sense over settling for a single year of arb and relying on a good season to earn that extra cash…but only if he’s not a Type A free agent. If that were the case, he’d have to accept because no one’s going to give up a pick for him.
Hill doesn’t make much sense, though, unless he was willing to trade a gentleman’s agreement to decline arbitration for a chance at playing in the postseason.
The deal is certainly a bit of a head-scratcher.
-C
a lefty bat, that’s distinguishing. purely a change of scene trade. and a favour to the distinguished (as in classy and clutch) Johnny Mac, to give him a playoff chance
If Johnson stays in Toronto, then he provides a better fit than Hill. If I could wave a magic wand and make Hill a LHB, I would do it in an instant.
did you guys forget about something called ‘waivers’?
Yeah, all of the said players cleared those.
Hmm… two underachieving second basemen swapped for each other. Not sure which one I’d prefer. Can’t really say a team won this trade at this point.
Not sure if this is a grab for draft picks, but KJ was a Type B in latest Elias update. However, he’s changing leagues and was right on the fringe of A/B, so he could still end up being an A at season’s end.
Hopefully he is B and he declines. That seems to be the grand plan. Hech will be up sooner than later.
Hech isnt a 2B.
I am in arizona and a season ticket holder and let me say KJ is great defensively but crappy at bat. i think he is batting .100 past one and half month hence reason for trade.
In that case, Hill will fit right in.
Brian Tallet’s Moustache + Brian Tallet’s sideburns = pure shaggy hippy gold. I met him once in a Mexican place downtown… why doesn’t he just order a burrito from Mexico and fly it in? I say again, shaggy hippy.
classic toronto, they probably weren’t gonna pick up Hill’s option anyway, here they will get a draft pick or two if johnson declines arbitration.
plus Hill definitely wouldn’t have decline arb.
What’s the chance Johnson does though?
if he’s a type B free agent, which he will be.. a lot more likely than Hill
Plus..if you have to risk offering one of them arb, its less of a risk to offer it to KJ as opposed to Hill. Kj has a better track record, and AA has had an eye on him for a while.
This is a draft pick move. We always see Toronto make these trades. Very smart. They offer Johnson arbitration and pick up the picks.
I have not idea why the Diamondbacks make this trade. I know Johnson is having a bad year, but compared to Hill’s 2011 Johnson looks like an all-star
they essentially got the same player in return + a utility infielder which they could use since stephen drew went down. plus, hill has the potential to put up another huge season, just isn’t likely..
They’re not the same player. A 30 point difference in wOBA is significant.
not to mention the fact that Hill has progressively declined over the past 2 seasons. Can’t imagine how bad 2012 Hill will be. Especially in that park, he have even more reason to convince himself not to change his approach (and use a lighter bat).
I agree with @cgreen127 – I expect Hill to bounce back to a .275 / 20 HR / 80 RBI kind of year… what’s interesting is that it feels like Hill’s D has slipped somewhat this year… could just be perception though
Wow, those are some sky high expectations.
Dammit. Johnny Mac was my favourite Jays player.
lmao go listen to the interview with AA, Hill and Mac(on tsn), it sounds like they have a deal in place to come back next season. I dont know if this is considered tampering.
it will be nice to see Johnny Mac have a chance to go for a run, he is a vet after all..
AA just implied that mac will be back next year.
Another Left handed bat 😀
Essentially they are the same player, both great defensively but really bad at bat
Is Johnson great defensively…I thought I heard the opposite.
Sorry to sound like a broken record, but look at the stats, guys. Johnson is much better both offensively and defensively than Hill.
Johnson – .310 wOBA, 3.9 UZR, 1.6 WAR
Hill – .265 wOBA, -1.8 UZR, -0.5 WAR
That’s a 2.1 WAR difference. Maybe ‘Zona thinks Hill is a better bounce back candidate than Johnson (although Johnson’s career wOBA is 23 points higher than Hill’s) but they haven’t been close to equivalent this year.
i like UZR, but particularly when players received mixed reviews from it, you should check the other metrics. DRS and +/- consistently rate johnson below average and hill above
That’s fair, although his 3 year UZR numbers are better than Hill’s, too. And even if you discount the defense, the offensive gap is very real.
absolutely. i am not an aaron hill fan at all
how could you like Pedroia and not like Aaron Hill, that makes Zero sense
Because Pedroia is vastly superior offensively, defensively and has the “scrappy undersized told was never going to make it but did against all odds” thing going for him. And if you look at hills one big year his OPS was .829 that would be Dustin’s fourth best OPS. So that is how you can like one but not the other.
I’m saddened my your inability to pick up my blatantly clear sarcasm 🙁
KJ is definitely an above-average defender. Been watching him for nearly two years, and definitely impressed.
A great way for the Jays to test drive a player they would be interested in signing in Free Agency. A trade of struggling second basemen for each other, both of which seem desperate for a change of scenery.
If this pans out, I find myself more upset at the prospect of losing JMac than Hill.
This is not a draft pick move. Draft pick is a back up, but Toronto desperately needs a 2b for next year. This way they get to test one out, and worst case, get a draft pick. But make no mistake this move was made to get a 2b, not a draft pick.
Exactly. Johnson is an ungrade over Hill now (look at their wOBA’s), and his recent slump is probably largely BABIP-driven (.257 this year despite 18.5% LD%). So he’s a decent bet to improve over his current numbers and put up something close to 3-4 WAR/year in the immediate future. Certainly a better bet than Hill, and both would likely get similar arbitration awards coming off a down year (Hill makes $5M this year, Johnson just under $6M, and they would get nominal raises, likely, after bad 2011 seasons).
This acquisition can play out in several ways:
1) Jays extend Johnson relatively cheaply due to his bad 2011 season and bounce-back potential. Could 3/25-30 do it?
2) Jays offer arbitration and Johnson accepts. The Jays get an upgrade at 2B for next year with high upside due to his low 2011 BABIP for a reasonable contract (say 6-7M for the 1 season). They can then evaluate Johnson in 2012 and decide to extend him at that point or, if he bounces back and can get a long term FA deal, let him go for picks and fill the 2B position some other way in 2013 (call up Hechavarria or FA then).
3) Jays offer arbitration and Johnson declines:
a) Jays resign Johnson, a player they could (would?) have targeted anyway, and
they get the exclusivity window as well
b) Johnson resigns elsewhere, and the Jays get the comp picks.
All of these result in distinct benefit for the Jays, either in the form of keeping Johnson for relatively cheap (a definite slight upgrade over Hill and very possible large one) or comp picks that may not have been available had Hill stayed, as he might not hang onto Type B status had he stayed in the AL. This is a definite winner for the Jays, though maybe not the fleecing we have come to expect from AA.
I like Kelly Johnson.
God AA is glod
For THIS?
honestly
Save us Jeebus.
I’m so sick of guys riding this AA dude’s tip.
All this stuff has amounted to nothing but the same 4th p[lace finish they have been doing for years.
Until he uses that money to get a Prince Fielder or major game-changer. All this “building for the future” crap is for losers….consistent losers
“until i see him overpay for a free agent, he’s dumb. a real GM would have taken the franchise from a 4th place organizational mess to the series in six months. just look at all the examples in history where that has happened”
Who said anything about overpaying for a free agent. They can sign the right free agents and it works for most teams who are on the cusp of winning. But hey man keep taking cast-offs and see how quick they gets you to a championship.
‘Until he uses that money to get a Prince Fielder or major game-changer’
you did you tool
That’s signing for a free agent not over paying. I don’t consider Tex, Holliday, or AGonz over-paid so just because I advocating signing a free agent doesn’t mean over-paying.
But go ahead and keep flexing those keyboard muscles with the name calling. Never hard to find a internet soldier.
I totally agree
“All this “building for the future” crap is for losers….consistent losers ”
Eat it.
Glod to get rid of Aaron Hill?
While I agree that AA has been quite good, this is a whatever move..
I can’t believe someone took Hill. I also can believe we traded Johnny Mac. Always a fan favourite, hopefully it turns out like the trade in 05 when he was sent to Detroit and then comes back at the end of the year.
I think that Johnson’s 100 point advantage on Hill make him more likely to turn down an arbitration offer and get a better offer on the free agent market. He is definitely a B and might be an A by the end of the season.
Hill on the other hand, would be nuts not to accept arbitration. He is not going to do better on the free agent market.
* 100 point advantage in OPS
* 100 point advantage in OPS
johnson’s not going to get a high-money multi-year offer anywhere after this season, especially if he becomes a type A. at age 29, his best bet is a one-year deal to rebuild his value and join the weak free agent class of 2012
coming over to the AL doesn’t that decrease the chance of him becoming a type A?
yes. i think this is a decent move because they acquired kelly johnson, not because they will get a compensation pick
in other words, i don’t think johnson was going to be turning down arb from anyone – including arizona. so unlike most impending free agents where you’re like “why trade for him when you could just sign him in 2 months”, toronto couldn’t just sign him in 2 months (without overpaying) without acquiring him this year. because now they get to be the team he won’t turn down arbitration from
so i don’t dislike the move, i just really disagree with people praising it on the basis of a draft pick theory
I like this deal from both team’s perspective.
Jays fans were fed up with Hill and he clearly needed a change in scenery and he will get that in Arizona. They get a reclamation project who could return to his old self with a new hitting coach. I wish him the best.
I hate to see Johnnymac go but he gets a shot at the post-season so good for him.
Jays get Johnson who is having a terrible year but he’s been a really good player in the past and Jays could potentially get a pick off him too. He is also an upgrade over Hill at the moment.
like johnson in toronto, hill will only be in arizona for two months tops, so i don’t know if we can anticipate a breakthrough with a new hittng coach
the only part of the trade that seems to have anything to do with the 2011 season is the acquisition of old mcdonald for arizona
It’s possible DBacks may keep Hill beyond this season. I don’t know their farm system so I’m not sure if they have a 2nd baseman coming up and there aren’t good 2nd baseman available in the free agency.
But yeah it seems like Johnnymac was the major piece in the deal for DBacks with Drew injured.
It’s possible DBacks may keep Hill beyond this season. I don’t know their farm system so I’m not sure if they have a 2nd baseman coming up and there aren’t good 2nd baseman available in the free agency.
But yeah it seems like Johnnymac was the major piece in the deal for DBacks with Drew injured.
The hitting coach is always the simplest scapegoat, but for whatever reason, it seems that “Murphy’s Law” has fixed Bautista, and buggered up everyone else.
Besides Snider and Hill who else has been buggered up? Lind has bounced back, EE is finally coming around, Escobar is fine, Thames has done great. etc.
Lind looks like a completely different hitter than he was in 09.
Are you blaming Lind’s incredibly horrific babip (since his cold streak began it’s gone from 300 to 270 and is dropping like a rock) on Murphy?
yes. on his face, specifically. he hates his face
🙁 no more Jhonny mac…..
totally – but his contract expires at year end – maybe he’ll come back
🙁 no more Jhonny mac…..
johnson looks the same as hill no average and some home runs
More home runs than Hill (18 to 5), higher ISO, more walks, and a BABIP-driven low BA. He’s a much better player this season (by ~50 points of wOBA) and his profile indicates likely improvement, while Hill doesn’t really show signs of hope for the future (sapped power, low LD%, doesn’t walk, etc).
johnson looks the same as hill no average and some home runs
Great trade for both teams. I don’t think Blue Jays want Kelly Johnson for the draft picks because they were rumored to be interested in him at the start of the season( I guess some rumors are true..rigth AA lol) and they need a 2nd basemen next year.
Great trade for both teams. I don’t think Blue Jays want Kelly Johnson for the draft picks because they were rumored to be interested in him at the start of the season( I guess some rumors are true..rigth AA lol) and they need a 2nd basemen next year.
was this the trade that shook the east coast?
Watch Toronto resign Johnson and go after Fielder in the offseason, then we could have the new Bash Brothers on the all homerun derby team.
Kelly Johnson is struggling his way to a 2 WAR season (he’s at 1.6 right now). Aaron Hill is at -0.5 WAR. Think I know which one I’d prefer.
Kelly Johnson is struggling his way to a 2 WAR season (he’s at 1.6 right now). Aaron Hill is at -0.5 WAR. Think I know which one I’d prefer.
Aaron Hill’s going to like the National League a lot better. Kelly Johnson is not going to like the AL East. Even in his superficially great year last year, Johnson did almost all his damage at home.
rogers centre isn’t any less friendly than chase field. assuming his BABIP evens out and he gets his head on straight, i think he’s a decent fit with the jays going forward. i’m not convinced anthopolous acquired one of his favorite players for a squeeze-round draft pick
I agree… I think KJ is the starting 2B next year..
This trade is just to get him in to the organizaiton now so he doesn’t have to worry about acquiring him in the offseason..
a bird in the hand …..
right i actually think anthopolous recognized he wouldn’t be able to get him in the offseason without committing multiple years and good money, which he’d rather not do. this looks like a shortcut to a one-year deal
so your first predicition of the jays is right
next stop cj wilson-ville?
so your first predicition of the jays is right
next stop cj wilson-ville?
Oh yeah, he’ll love Lincecum and Cain, and if they happen to get past them, how bout Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels. Johnson gave them a deep threat which is about the only way to beat the Phils, if they make PS it will be just like Phili vs Cinci last year.
You know there are other teams in the NL than the Giants and Phillies, right? And I wasn’t just talking about the playoffs.
“Aaron Hill’s going to like the National League a lot better”
haha
well technically he cant get worse.
Fair point.
well technically he cant get worse.
And the winner is….. D-Backs.
And the winner is….. D-Backs.
Good move for Arizona. Hill will feast on NL pitching and McDonald is a lights out fielder. AA finally lost a trade, haha.
Oops only liked that Hill will feast on NL pitching. and Mcdonald is an infielder!! AA never loses trades sorry…
“lights out” fielder, not lights outfielder, haha
Oops only liked that Hill will feast on NL pitching. and Mcdonald is an infielder!! AA never loses trades sorry…
Careful, AA will smite you
Careful, AA will smite you
I’d venture NL West pitching is a lot more difficult to face than AL East pitching, and it’s not at all close. Hill’s option wasn’t going to get picked up and the Jays, in all likelihood, will try to re-sign Johnny Mac in the off season as he’s a fixture in the Blue Jays community. It’s an okay deal for Arizona during their pennant race, and it’s a great deal for Toronto to have a few months of acquaintance with KJ to see if they’d like to re-sign for next year, and if not offer him arbitration for a draft pick. AA certainly did not lose this trade.
Please compare 2010-2011 numbers for Hill and Johnson and explain how AA lost this trade…All three players are free agents to be and Hill is borderline un-arbitrationable. Use your head man.
Bwahaha
Seriously don’t understand how anyone can say, an hour after it happened, that the Jays lose this one. It’s a month of Aaron Hill and a month of John Mcdonald for a month of Kelly Johnson.
Jays weren’t offering Hill arbitration, and they will probably offer Johnson arbitration (else, why trade for him?). Hill has been legitimately one of the worst, least valuable players in baseball over the last two seasons. Johnson is having an offyear, and the Jays are taking a risk that he’ll bounce back (if he accepts arbitration, which he might not, earning the Jays picks), which they obviously prefer the chances of vs. Hill’s bounceback after two years of suck.
The only way for there to be a clearcut winner in this trade before the offseason is for Arizona to make it to the playoffs and have Mcdonald be a defensive sub every game, making Mcdonald the biggest star in that city.
Also worth noting is how shallow the FA market is for 2B. Hill was the worst one available and pops up everything in sight, Johnson’s been worth 1.6fWAR this year with a babip 52 points below his career norm.
Pretty sure the Jays get one pick at best (not “picks”). If he makes A status, then he probably accepts arb because it is unlikely a teams going to give up a draft pick after the season he has had.
I don’t think it’s non-zero that he declines. There’s practically 0 2B’s out there in the free agent pool this offseason.
I agree with you, and AA probably doesn’t make this trade if he is not alright with the prospect of KJ manning second next year.
Pretty sure the Jays get one pick at best (not “picks”). If he makes A status, then he probably accepts arb because it is unlikely a teams going to give up a draft pick after the season he has had.
“Seriously don’t understand how anyone can say, an hour after it happened, that the Jays lose this one.”
did someone say that? i mostly see “all hail AA” and “AA is god” type comments, and people questioning that weird reaction. and some johnny mac love
HAIL AA and all his infinte wisdom!!!! Dare to gaze into his eyes, subcome to his powers, he will make it all better.
Jonathan Goldsmith and Anthopoulos go bowling every Wednesday night, overhand only.
There are 4 or 5 comments up there saying “Winner:D-backs” or whatever.
I hope Arizona wins the world series! Bring back the ring Johnny Mac!
This trade makes sense, AA now does not have to be a bad guy and decline the options on Hill, or look like a bad guy when he declines the options and then tries to resign him for less money. He also gets to clear out another one of his predecessors bad contract extensions. Now we have yet another Lefty batter and can go L then R all the way down the order.
“He also gets to clear out another one of his predecessors bad contract extensions”
umm, no. Hill’s contract is actually very team friendly
ya, that was a really team friendly deal, a deal that looks really good because of the team options considering Hill’s regression.
Hech can stay down their Escobar is the SS.
I’m betting Cody Ransom will be designated soon
First of all, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnny Mac resign with Toronto after the season, as Toronto has already traded him to Detroit in the past for a playoff run, and he came back in the offseason.
So, this comes down to 1 1/2 months of Aaron Hill for 1 1/2 months of Kelly Johnson. Johnson provides more offense, Hill provides more defense; but Johnson is much more likely to bring back a draft pick. You can see the trade from Toronto’s perspective. The only question for Arizona is whether you would be willing to sacrifice offense for defense at the 2B position, because Aaron Hill is significantly worse than Kelly Johnson.
Kelly Johnson has been worth 1.6WAR this season; Aaron Hill has been worth -0.5WAR. That’s right, negative WAR. The second worst second baseman in baseball who qualified.
Add into this that AA has had a mancrush on Kelly Johnson for quite some time, and you can see this trade from the perspective that he’s going to audition him for a long term role; and if he bites the dust, he’ll get a draft pick in return. Win-win.
And a win for Arizona, but only if pitching and defense wins championships.
Worth noting that Hill’s defense has seemingly fallen off this season. Lots of misplayed balls where it seemed like his offensive struggles were just distracting him on the field.
he’s been below replacement defensively 2 of the last 3 years. Johnson has been 4 runs or more better 3 in a row according to Fangraphs
Should add that after reading some Jays blogs, Jays fans almost universally believe Johnny Mac will be back in Toronto for spring training.
OK – this is not a Johnson or Hill trade – according to AA at the press conference this is a JMac trade.
The DBacks need a SS (apparently theirs is out) – so after all the back and forth – JMac and Hill for Johnson. JMac said on the press conference he IS coming back to the Jays as either a player or coach. Hill also wants back – but I doubt the Jays want him back (despite the fact that while he has stunk lately – he’s a nice enough guy).
The Jays 2nd baseman of the future is ESCOBAR with Hechavarria a Gold Glove type with a quickly maturing bat being the SS of the future. Jay’s feel Johnson will be less likely to accept arbitration than Hill.
SO – Jays get TWO 1st round picks in 2012 Draft (their own and one for not signing Beede), + a Supplemental 1st for Johnson, + one each for Franscisco, Rauch and Molina giving that clever old fox AA SIX FIRST DRAFT choices in 2012. WOW!
You forgot to include pick for EE. Also, IMO Camp finishes year as Type B.
Lightsout Fielder … isn’t that one of Prince’s kids?
I’m not really sure what KT was thinking on this one, trading Kelly for a carbon copy. I was still holding out hope for Johnson at least he was hot at one time this year and put some homers on the board, which is more than I can say for Hill. At least he strikes out less. Also this Johnny Mac guy looks like he’ll probably be better than Ransom. So I guess this trade makes the dbacks better, but I really liked kelly.
I’m more shocked then anything else… I didn’t see a move like this coming..
but overall I’m pleased, both teams got something they need.
Johnny Mac’s a great guy, and in Arizona hopefully he will get a chance to lead and make the playoffs. He’ll always be welcomed back.
I don’t think AA made this trade for a draft pick. He’s had his eye on KJ for a long while, so I think this trade just gives him rights to his guy a lot sooner.. Who knows if Arizona would have offered arb or another team picked up him up off waivers.. This just ensures that he gets his man..
Since everyone else is making lineups, here’s mine.
2012 Jays
SS Escobar
CF Rasmus
RF Bautista
DH Fielder
2B Johnson
1B Lind
C Arencibia
LF Snider
3B Lawrie
Bench
Thames
Mccoy (or Johnny Mac if he comes back)
Encarnacion
Molina
Davis
Rotation
Romero-Morrow-Wilson (CJ)-Mcgowan- Cecil
Bullpen-? -? Litsch-Perez-Janssen-Alvarez
Carreno I’d like in the pen also. The kid needs a chance to pitch though instead of rotting out there.
Also, your bench needs a second catcher.
I always forget about catchers for some reason… I’m guessing Molina would be brought back. He’s not a bad back up. cut loewen add molina.
surprised to see you slotting lawrie 9th. just letting him break in slowly?
also i think if they sign fielder and wilson, they’re definitely playing for the playoffs in 2012 and you can expect an aggressive trade or two to move them another step forward. that lineup is more than adequate, but even after wilson that rotation could use some extra punch
yup breaking him in slowly, plus I like his On base skills as the lineup turns over. Could switch him and Arencibia in the lineup, doesn’t matter..
I also agree with the rotation, however wilson will pretty much be the only target in my opinion, there’s not much there, another starter would have to be acquired through trade and who knows who that could be.
Realistically if you asked me last year I would have said the 2012 Starting rotation is Romero- Morrow-Cecil-Drabek and Stewart.
There’s not bonafide ace on the staff, Romero has made his case but still struggles against tough lineups.
exactly. that’s the real achilles i see for this theoretical club. romero’s really good, wilson’s really good, morrow’s really good. but none of them are guarantees. romero and morrow are young enough that they can make that step forward at any time, but so far it hasn’t happened
ideally you’d like to let all the young pitching in the system mature in fill into the rotation. but if you’re going to be aggressive and bring in fielder and wilson types, i think you have to be all-the-way aggressive and use some farm depth to acquire another impact arm (or bat, i suppose)
i’m looking forward to finding out if anthopolous is planning for 2012 or 2013. fingers crossed for 2012, though. i can totally see a series of moves that tip the balance and see them edging the yankees out with their pitching situation as precarious as it is
they could also edge the sox out, obviously. but i don’t like to think about that, so i’m not going to
i don’t think anyone has ever seen AA’s moves coming
I like Kelly johnson. Maybe not elite but as a 6-8 hitter at least decent right? he hits jacks which many 2nd basemen dont…….. i watch him play the LAD a bunch…. nd I respect KJ. I think A.A keeps him…. Down yr or not dnt act like KJ can’t hit u 25 jacks nxt yr
AA has a very good reason for this trade, he always does. Nobody mentions that maybe the D-backs came to AA looking for Hill in the same scenario as Escobar and Rasmus (try to get an underachieving player while he is still relativly cheap). Guess we’ll never know. AA says throw in J Mac to make the money even and get K Johnson back (a guy that AA has been trying to aquire for a while now). KJ may turn it around in a new environment but if he doesn’t work out the Jays get a better chance to get a comp pick. AA was not going to offer anything to Hill in the offseason antways. AA has made better deals than any Jays manager since ’93.
Except AA mentioned that KT came asking about Johnny mac.
AA likes Kelly Johnson. But I feel he will offer arb still. If he accepts Jays get to keep him (which they want to do) if he doesn’t accept they get a pick. It seems like a win-win situation.
I love seeing all the Jays fans trying to justify this trade and defend AA’s honor. Kinda silly really.
@Lunchbox45
I can’t imagine the Jays signing Fielder and CJ Wilson this offseason. That would be the ultimate perverbial wet-dream, could just as well push them to the 90 plateau if both stay healthy.
I’m starting to think that the reply nonsense is an mlbtr issue and not Disqus. I’ve never seen a failed reply anywhere else.
Brandon Phillips baby!
Hill was NEVER going to be offered arbitration.
He was not and will not be offered arbitration.
2B with 20 hr power are in short supply. I could see him going to another team with a 2 yr deal.