Nine MLBTR writers give 2011 predictions! Click here to see postseason and award picks from Tim Dierkes, Ben Nicholson-Smith, Mike Axisa, Luke Adams, Mark Polishuk, Zach Links, Dan Mennella, Howard Megdal, and Steve Adams. Make your predictions in the comments and we'll check back here in November.
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Only request, please BUMP THIS THREAD at the end of the season =)
I’m probably wrong but:
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: Yankees
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Rockies
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Giants over Phillies
WS: Giants over Red Sox
no love for the Cardinals. sigh.
gee i wonder why……
you’re a funny one.
the guy who picked brad emaus to win the NL ROY is much funnier
I fully support your comment, Emaus?? Really, would he be the first rule 5 guy to win it?
And see what no Cardinal love get’s you! lol.
All 45 ESPN analysts picked the Red Sox to win the East (as do I) and all MLBTR writers except one did it too. Zach is the odd man out. Although he picks Boston to beat the Yankees in the ALCS. And I see Mike picked the Red Sox to win the East but to lose to the Yankees in the ALCS. I’d be interested in hearing why.
both howard and dan have the yankees missing the playoffs. i’d be very surprised
Steve too. Although Steve and Dan picked an AL West team, arguably the worst division in the league, to win the wild card.
wild card coming out of the east or the central very surprised to see two al west teams in there
Crazy things do happen, but I think picking an AL West team to win the wild card is going way against the odds. But hey let’s hope for a good season and we shall see.
Good season , is worth hoping for , and everybody likes the unexpected unless it happens to them . opening day tomorrow getting goose bumps
AL west worse not even close. The AL east for once will be balanced. which means that they might not have any team over 90 wins. Boston only team that could run away with it but looks like a bunch of teams canceling each other out.
2 teams from the East each won at least 95 games last year, 1 team won 89 games, and the 4th place team won 85 games. 2 AL East teams can easily, easily win 90 games this year (most likely Yankees and Sox).
Not a single team in the AL Central or AL West had a winning record against the AL East. Every AL East team had a winning record against the AL West. And only the Red Sox and Orioles in the AL East had a losing records against the AL Central.
Oh and if I may add, last year’s AL West division champion won exactly 90 games, 2nd place was Oakland with 81 wins, not even above .500. Which would mean the 4th place Blue Jays would finish 2nd in the AL West
Yes that was last year and this is this year, but if the AL West is not the worst division in the AL, then which is of the 2? MAYBE the only division worse than it in all of baseball is the NL Central. But the AL West is clearly the weakest of the AL divisions.
Lets not forget that if the Blue Jays actually were in that division they would get to play those teams a lot more. Add in they had the second best winning record against the AL East last year (behind Tampa), and I would say the Jays would have walked away with the AL West division.
That’s true too.
ESPN? Red Sox? Sheesh, That’s going off on a limb.
Why is everyone in denial that the Red Sox are woefully underperforming in spring training? I too think they have alot of great names, but I think that people are going to be surprised when they don’t live up to their very lofty expectations. Funny how in a quick decade the Red Sox go from “can’t win a thing” to “how can they lose”! I tag the Red Sox as having the highest potential for being disappointing! Sorry Theo…
so judging by your spring training rational..
Should I buy my Jays 2011 World Series jacket now?
Are the Jays your home team? If so then of course! Also, I would never sell MY team up the river with a sarcastic comment and no games played.
Anyways. what real analysis does anyone use without real games. Are you using your gut, or perhaps your daddies opinion. At least I am a spacial statistician and have reasons for my predictions other than ESPN hype:)
________________________________________
you are so right spring training stats have very high predictive value historically
don’t you remember the giants spring training last year???
.. because I sure don’t
I looked it up the other day in response to some people crying sky is falling over the Red Sox’ tough spring (Spoiler alert, based on records back to 2002, results were inconclusive), the Giants actually had the best record in the Cactus League, so Spring Training stats are completely dead on!
On the other hand, can anyone guess who had the worst record in the Cactus League? I’ll give you a hint: it was an AL team.
Dan Mennella knows what he’s talking about.
Why because he picked the Yankees to miss the playoffs? It can happen of course, but I got a feeling that’s why you’re saying that lol
My guess is he’s a ChiSox fan
Ahh didn’t see the WS prediction, good catch.
for sure, even though I hate to jinx them I wouldn’t mind having a great summer with the Sox. Hope they go all the way but like I said, I’m not to sure with everyone picking them to win the division.
Oh no. You jinxed them. Somehow you saying that will make them lose. And so will a billy goat.
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Athletics
AL WC: Yankees
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Braves
ALCS: Red Sox over White Sox
NLCS: Phillies over Giants
WS: Red Sox over Phillies
love the love for the athletics i’m seeing here. and though i don’t think it’s likely, i’d looove a boston-atlanta WS
listen to me. you can tell tomorrow is opening day, can’t you
Cities that had a team named the Braves in it. Hoping Milwaukee wins the central too? lol
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: Rays
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Rockies
ALCS: Red Sox over Rangers
NLCS: Phillies over Reds
WS: Phillies over Red Sox
I really wish I had your optimism that the Rays could take the Wildcard.
maybe he meant 2012?
It’s pretty hard to see anyone other than the Red Sox win the East this year. The Yankees and Rays are going to have decent seasons, and I think Baltimore and Toronto could potentially be decent, but the Red Sox have a great rotation and serious firepower.
I’m a Yankees fan and I picked them to lose in the LCS vs the Red Sox, might have been the hardest pick I had to make, but they have a better team.
I’m just saying even though we have a rivalry i’m not one of those blind Yankee fans, this is a transition year.
This goes without saying that I’ll be rooting hard for the Yanks to take it all this year like I do every year. I just don’t expect it like most misguided Yankee fans do. However I agree with you Baltimore and Toronto are going to be really tough this year.
AL east teams don’t play each other in the LCS.
Off the top of my head, the Red Sox and Yankees have faced off in the ALCS at least three times (1999, 2003 and 2004). Then there was the Cardinals versus Astros a few years back and who knows how many interdivision LCS matchups. Have you been sleeping since just before divisional realignment or something?
You’re thinking of the LDS. League Division Series. That’s when they can’t play each other. LCS is the 2nd round.
Teams in the same division can’t play each other in the LCS.
You’re thinking of the LDS. League Division Series. That’s when they can’t play each other. LCS is the 2nd round.
It sure is nice to hear from more level-headed fans; I might have learned to appreciate good baseball rather than wins or losses since I am a Mariners fan… 🙂 but it does appear that the Yankees are at a cornerstone (or close to it) seeing as Jeter, Posada, and Mo are all coming up to the end of their careers. It seems like they have some work to do replacing those guys, but it’s the Yankees. They aren’t going to have anything close to a rebuilding year anytime soon since they will still have Tex, Cano, and A-roid in the middle of their lineup. They are always going to be good, I guess I have just accepted it by now.
Admittedly, I know not a whole lot about the AL East, but the Jays and O’s look much, much better, at least offensively. One thing I know, is that a friend of mine’s cousin is in the Jays minor league system…. but I digress. Anyway, the question mark to me would be their pitching staffs. (sp?)
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Athletics
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Rockies
NL Wildcard: Reds
ALCS: Red Sox over Twins
NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals
WS: Phillies over Red Sox
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Angels
AL Wildcard: Yankees
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants
NL Wildcard: Phillies
ALCS: Red Sox over White Sox
NLCS: Braves over Phillies
WS: Braves over Red Sox
Emaus NL ROY? I find that really interesting, I hope Howard is on to something. It got the Mets on the board in some shape or form so that’s nice.
im a mets fan..but eamus as rookie of the year seems a little outlandish to me too…either that guy lives in vegas or is a jays fan or something..
As a outlandish as it is, It’s probably the least outlandish way you could insert the Mets into any of the considerations. Although I’m not sure why everyone is so high on the Braves, I think it’s about as misguided as predicting the Mets end up in last place. I see the Mets ending up in third and the Braves second, losing out on the wild card to the Brewers or Reds.
see three different writers predict crawford winning the MVP award. that would just blow me away, as he doesn’t have the kind of stats that win over baseball writers. and several of his teammates do
That really surprised me too. I like Crawford a lot and I think he has a good year, but he’s not a HR/RBI kinda guy, which is what gets you MVP votes.
Unrelated but did you see Beckett tonight? He had everything working for him.
almost every sox fan i know — even the ones that are savvy baseball people — is expecting beckett to have a bad to very bad season. goes without saying that most everyone outside of boston thinks so too
i’m not seeing it. his velocity wasn’t down, his swinging strikes weren’t down, and if anything he has more weapons now than he’s had before. like 2006, 2010 was about command. the guy seems to get in his own head and makes small problems big, protracted ones
having said that, command is very correctable. i expect beckett to correct it and have a very solid 2011. and if he can use his change-up and cutter effectively, he could have a season that’s much better than solid
Beckett does well in odd number years. I certainly don’t see him doing as bad as he did last year (when he did pitch). Same for AJ Burnett actually. But I don’t expect Great numbers from either of these 2 guys either.
The whole odd year Beckett thing really is a misnomer. He arguably pitched better in ’08 than he did in ’09, only the results weren’t as good. I could even make a case that he pitched at least as well in ’08 as he did in ’07. In ’08 he had the highest K/9, second lowest HR/9, and second lowest FIP of his time with the Sox and the lowest BB/9 and xFIP of his career. Anyway, I couldn’t say that I expect great numbers from Beckett, but I will say that I wont be shocked by them. It really did seem to be all about command last year rather than “stuff” for Beckett.
I’m with you. He is supposed to have improved his change-up too, more movement and 2-3 MPH slower. I wouldn’t be too shocked to see him go back to the ’07-’09 Beckett.
I agree with you totally about command. Obviously the Beckett from 07 is not going to be back, but I could see him getting 14-16 wins and an ERA of 3.60-4.00.
I expect the same from Beckett.
How do you think Clay will do? I don’t think he will have the same ERA or an even better ERA than he did last year though. On the plus side he definitley will throw more innings (if he’s consistent that is). I expect a better year out of Lackey. Dice-K who knows. And Lester will probably have a Lester year.
For Clay, I also feel the ERA will be higher I mean he had like a 2.33 last year and that is hard to replicate. I’d say 15-17 wins for clay and an ERA around 3.35-3.75. Lackey I’d expect basically the same from him that I would Beckett 14-16 wins ERA 3.60-4.00 though I think he has a better chance of having an ERA under 4. I think the Sox would be happy with 10-12 wins from Dice-K and an ERA of like 4.00-4.30 he is the number 5 guy after all. If Lester can have a good first month and not lay an egg like in years past. I could see 18-20 wins ERA of 2.80-3.20 and his 200+ K’s.
clay’s ERA will be higher, but he may actually end up pitching better than he did last year. there’s lots of room for his strikeouts to increase and his walks could also go down
Dustin Pedroia not much of a HR/RBI guy and won MVP in 2008 with 17 HR 83 RBI (definitely earned it though)
And who can forget Ichiro’s MVP in 2001 with 8 HR and 55 RBI.
Sure, it certainly happens, but that’s more the exception than the rule.
The exception that proves the rule. I can’t remember much of the 2001 playing field, but Pedroia only won the 2008 MVP because there was a very thin field of candidates for the award. Teixeira was was one of only two players with a better WAR in the AL and he played half the season in the NL. The other was Sizemore, but his counting stats didn’t really stand out in the way writers generally lean toward (His low BA killed him, despite putting up better numbers in general) A-Rod had better offensive stats, but Pedroia’s impressive fielding more than closed that gap.
Sizemore’s the only guy in the AL I could say probably deserved it more, but playing for a crappy team and that low BA killed his chances.
I actually remember thinking at the time that Pedroia was (arguably) not even the most likely player on the Red Sox to get the MVP. I actually thought that Youkilis was more likely to get the award than Pedroia was since he put up better offensive numbers, which is what generally gets you MVP votes.
Surprised me too, to see Crawford so much for MVP. Although, his numbers will surely be inflated in that lineup. He has all the protection in the world.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
WEST: Texas Rangers
CENTRAL: Minnesota Twins
EAST: Boston Red Sox
WILD CARD: Chicago White Sox
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Michael Piñeda
MVP: Joe Mauer
CY YOUNG: Felix Hernandez
NATIONAL LEAGUE
WEST: San Francisco Giants
CENTRAL: Cincinnati Reds
EAST: Atlanta Braves
WILD CARD: Philadelphia Phillies
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Brandon Belt
MVP: Albert Pujols
CY YOUNG: Roy Halladay
NLCS: Braves over Reds
ALCS: Twins over Red Sox
WORLD SERIES: Twins over Braves
How’d you get the ~ over Michael Pineda’s name. I’ve never been able to figure it out.
on a mac option+n then N
Not exactly sure on a Windows or Linux. Something similar; maybe the Fn key? probably alt.
I like where you’re going with the Twins, as a Twins fan of course. Right now as it sits, I’d be shocked if the WC came from the east, so good call on the ChiSux.
The East is so unpredictable in my opinion. I see all 5 teams capable of beating each other. The Yankees and Red Sox are both weak in the rotation, and made no offensive upgrades (crawford + A-Gon replacing V-Mart and Beltre is a wash, you’re high if you think otherwise). Baltimore is going to be exceptionally improved this year, and will steal a lot of wins from the Two Empires, as will the Blue Jays. I have a hard time counting the Rays out, just based on their style of play and possible depth within the organization. Hellickson has the potentially of more than making up for Garza, and they may be able to get a combination of players to replace Crawford’s production. I think I see the Rays skating over the dogpile in the East.
Rangers did what they did without Cliff Lee, so he wasn’t a huge loss. They actually played worse once he came over. But I see the Athletics pitching staff as much better than the questions marks in Texas. It’s going to be tight between those two. I feel the A’s are due, but that Nolan refuses to let them lose. I gotta go Rangers though, last year was a big turning point for that club.
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: Athletics
NL East: Braves
NL Central Brewers
NL West: Rockies
NL WC: Giants
Phillies have a ridiculous pitching staff, but what the yankees and red sox lack in pitching, the Phillies lack in offense and health. I don’t think they are built for a full season. In a play off series? Yeah they’d be great, but not over 162 games, you have to score runs. I cite example 1, the Mariners of the first half of 2010.
LOL! “ChiSux”. I see what you did there….very creative!
Clayton Kershaw wins Cy Young oh man thats funny what future brain surgeon wrote that , maybe in a few more years . i think he is good dont get me wrong but come on man dont be one of those guys who picks crazy picks and then when one of your ten off the wall picks actually wins. you act like a genius ,
NL West: Rockies
NL Central: Reds
NL East: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Braves
AL West: Rangers
AL Central: White Sox
AL East: Red Sox
AL wild Card: Yankees
NLCS: Rockies over Phillies
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
World Series: Red Sox over Rockies
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
AL Cy Young: David Price
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
The Cardinals are being highly underrated by nearly everyone.
They lost their best pitcher and Carpenter has shown in spring that he is a possible DL candidate. The team is just not that good. If Pujols or Holliday go on the DL (even for 15 days) the Cards will fall back in the standings FAST. It’s not a good time to be a St. Louis fan. All you can do is hope for the best and pray Pujols will come back for under 300MM. The Cardinals 10 year reign of terror is about to end. Sorry.
Sorry for you, but it’s alway a good time to be a Cardinals fan. This team is better than it’s given credit for. Obviously they are not the favorite to with the Central, but with Albert, Holliday, and Rasmus in the middle of the order and the rotation still as good as most teams…….this team is being seriously underrated. The Cardinals WILL compete through August, and that is a garauntee. If Albert comes back it doesn’t matter, it’s about this year, and the Cardinals will be right in the thick of things when August rolls around, then you never know what happens.
AL
East- Sox
West-Angels
Central-Twins
Wildcard-Yankees
NL
East-Braves
West-Rockies
Central-Reds
Wild Card-Phillies
AL MVP- I desperately want to say anyone else but Adrian Gonzalez… but after looking at his home spray chart applied Fenway, if he stays healthy he should win..If not him Hamilton for the repeat.
NL MVP-Tulo
AL ROY- Hellickson
NL ROY-Freeman
AL CY- Price
NL CY- Lee
i assume everyone who is giving the nod to tulo over pujols is just doing so because the rox have a better shot at the playoffs than STL?
did you not pick a WS winner because the playoffs are a virtual toss-up?
OR IS IT BECAUSE YOU HAVE NO…MAHBLES! YOU HAVE NO MAHBLES?!
re: tulo- yes, I think the Rockies make the playoffs and cards don’t.
I’m a gambler.. last year every dime I won on betting on the rangers, I lost by betting against the giants. .
Moral of the story, anything can happen.. but if I had to pick a WS winner today, I’d pick the Rockies.
what are your picks oh wise one? I’m curious
indians in 6
you think they’ll be eliminated from the post season after just 6 regular season games?
Harsh dude
i’m a gambler too, for srs. and that’s why i hate preseason predictions for baseball. a 6 month 162 game season is just too volatile too predict with any confidence at all. it’s just useless. having said that, here are my completely ordinary predictions
AL
East – BOS
West – OAK
Central – CHI
WildCard – NYY
NL
East – PHI
West – COL
Central – MIL
WildCard – ATL
AL MVP – Gonzalez
NL MVP – Pujols
AL ROY – Hellickson
NL ROY – Freeman
AL CY – Verlander
NL CY – Lee
and like i said, cleveland in 6
I have to agree with everything except the Yankees getting the WC. As a Jays fan I hope they get it together a year early and make a push (probably not this year) but I think the Yankees are going to struggle on the mound enough that their hitting will not be able to compensate. I think baltimore will be much better this year and drag down the win totals of all of the AL east teams. I expect there to be a pretty good race come september without a true bottom dweller in the East. With that said there is a good chance for a central team who beats up on KC, Detroit, and Cleveland this year to pull out the wild card or be right there to the end. The Sox will most likely win the East but be under their projected 95 wins, they play too many good teams.
I wouldn’t hold your breathe with our fair blue jays.. Realistically, we got worse from last year.. No Marcum, No Wells.. now I loved both trades, they we’re both future trades.
Not to mention that we probably won’t win 15 games vs the orioles this year. .Garza’s out of the division which is good.. If they finish .500 I’d be ecstatic.
Damn, some one picked Brandon Beachy for NL Rookie of the year? Bold choice.
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Card: Braves
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Tigers
NLCS: Braves over Brewers
ALCS: Red Sox over White Sox
WS: Red Sox over Braves
NL MVP: HanRam
AL MVP: Morneau
NL Cy Young: Grienke
AL Cy Young: Lester
NL ROY: Freeman
AL ROY: Hellickson
I love Morneau and I think he’ll have a good year coming off that whole concussion business, but there’s no way he can win AL MVP if the Twins come in third in the central.
Braves
Reds
Rockies
Phillies
Red Sox
White Sox
Rangers
Yankees
Red Sox over Rangers
Rockies over Phillies
Red Sox over Rockies
MVP Pujols
Gonzalez
CY Gallardo
Hernandez
ROY Belt
Hellickson
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Athletics
AL Wild Card: Tigers
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Rockies
NL Wild Card: Brewers
ALDS: White Sox over Yankees
ALDS: Tigers over Athletics
NLDS: Braves over Reds
NLDS: Brewers over Rockies
ALCS: White Sox over Tigers
NLCS: Brewers over Braves
WS: (drum roll please) Brewers over White Sox
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Carlos Gonzalez
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Not being biased, I just actually think that’s how this will end up.)
NL Cy Young: Edison Volquez
AL Rookie of the Year: Chris Sale
NL Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman
Yeah, that looks about right. I hope it didn’t look too biased. I really think that both Cabrera, who finished second in MVP voting last year, will win it this year and that Verlander, judging by how he’s pitched in spring (Sub 1.00 ERA,) can win the Cy Young.
The all underdog prediction ehh?
I could have picked the Pirates to beat the Royals in the World Series.
But Vegas says those are the best odds!
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Yankees
NL EAST: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Rockies
NL Wildcard: Reds
NLCS: Phillies over Rockies
ALCS: Red Sox over Rangers
WS: Red Sox over Phillies
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Carlos Gonzalez
AL ROY: Dustin Ackley
NL ROY: Craig Kimbrel
AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver
NL Cy Young: Ubaldo Jimenez
If Kimbrel wins ROY, I think the Braves make the playoffs. Reason being, he will be at least a part-time closer (with other opportunities possibly going to Venters). If he gets enough opportunities and saves to win ROY, I think that will mean the Braves win a lot of games and he earns most of the saves. Just an idea though.
If I predict he will win ROY, that should be your first clue that he doesn’t have a chance LOL. Good luck to your Braves! I will be rooting for my Cubs!
Dang, I thought about this pretty hard, and we both came up with the same MVPs! Not much else is the same though lol.
We both have the Rockies and Tigers but have them getting in differently. I gues thats worth something.
Hooray, I get to call a very rational, but unique set of predictions:) I hate to break it to the junior leage fans, but times a changing! Someone follow up with this so I get cred later!
ALE: Blue Jays
ALC: Royals
ALE: Angels
ALWC: Rays
NLE: Phillies
NLC: Brewers
NLW: Giants
NLWC: Padres
The leafs have a better chance at the 2011 stanley cup then the jays do at the 2011 AL east pennant
Sounds like you are ready to be an analyist on ESPN! Perhaps we should just skip the regular season and go strait to the Red Sox v Phillies in the WS. THat way we can get to the non-existent football seseon sooner.
Did you really make a hockey reference with regards to the Blue Jays?? What’s next a soccer reference for the Padres.
________________________________________
the fact that you can’t be realistic opens you up to more criticism .
I’m a die hard jays fan, but I’m not going to sit here and pretend like we have gotten better from last year.. not to mention the teams that have gotten better from last year, while the jays got worse.
Luckily our smart gm knows better to fall in to the 85 win trap.
Hmmm, what can I say, I have processed statistics that I created as a professional 3D statistician guiding my predictions. Not just presumptions about wins, losses, ERA, and OPS, cause like you said, what can you learn from spring training?…nothing if you only read the internet! It’s all actually good news for you unless of course you are one of those guys like the character played by Randy Quaid in Major League 2 that likes to hate your team until they win the pennant.
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Rays
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Rockies
NL Wild Card: Giants
AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
ALDS: Red Sox over Rangers, White Sox over Rays
NLDS: Braves over Giants, Rockies over Reds
ALCS: Red Sox over White Sox
NLCS: Braves over Rockies
World Series: Red Sox over Braves
So many bold predictions…. not
He has the Yankees, Giants, and Phillies missing the playoffs. Not really predictions that you can gripe about for picking all of the “favorites”
Touche
he has the giants winning the wild card
Are you suggesting I make bold predictions just for bold predictions sake?
thats a bold accusation
Perhaps I’ll just keep eating my BOLD flavor Chex Mix then.
No one ever mentions Danny Espinosa for ROY, he has a very good chance and apparently is under the rader
March 2011
AL East
Too much love for the Athletics and Brewers among the official MLBTRers. 2 sub-.500 clubs if I’m being forced to put money down. Everything else seems reasonable.
I, as a relatively unbiased fan of an irrelevant team, choose:
Braves
Reds
Rockies
Phillies(WC)
Red Sox
White Sox
Rangers
Yankees(WC)
… and will go out on a limb and predict that whichever team wins the most postseason games will also win the World Series (okay, I’ll say the Phillies will beat the White Sox).
AL East: Boston
AL Central: Chicago
AL West: Texas
AL Wildcard: Baltimore
Boston beats Texas
Chicago beats Baltimore
Boston beats Chicago
NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Cincinnati
NL West: San Francisco
NL Wildcard: Philadelphia
Atlanta beats San Francisco
Philadelphia beats Cincinnati
Philadelphia beats Atlanta
Boston over Philadelphia 4-2
AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
NL MVP: Jay Bruce
AL ROY: Zach Britton
NL ROY: Freddie Freeman
AL CY YOUNG: CC Sabathia
NL CY YOUNG: Tim Lincecum
Orioles fan?
To the three that picked Carl Crawford to win MVP: Fail.
It is really not that big of a fail. Crawford is now playing for team that last year was 2nd in runs with Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis out for a good chunk of the season. Now stick Crawford in with a healthy Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis PLUS Adrian Gonzalez the potential for an MVP type year is there.
yes, but that’s an argument for an MV5, which makes it harder for any one singular player to bring home the hardware (see the results of the Cardinals MV3 in the early naughts).
Could Crawford win it? Sure. But personally I don’t think he’s the best pick on his team, much less the entire league.
Crawford really just doesn’t put up big numbers in the right columns to generally get many MVP votes.
While this is true it still could happen. My point was it is not a fail to choose someone of his caliber as MVP.
I don’t disagree, and I wouldn’t call it a fail, but it did surprise me to see his name there not just by one person but by multiple.
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Chicago
AL West: Angels
AL Wildcard: Boston
Angels beats Yankees
Chicago beats Boston
Angels beats Chicago
NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Cincinnati
NL West: San Francisco
NL Wildcard: Philadelphia
Atlanta beats Cincinnati
San Francisco beats Philadelphia
Atlanta beats San Francisco
Angels over Atlanta 4-2
AL MVP: Robinson Cano
NL MVP: Buster Posey
AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson
NL ROY: Brandon Belt
AL CY YOUNG: Jared Weaver
NL CY YOUNG: Tim Lincecum
It’s Jered weaver…
Seriously, nobody picked Felix Hernandez for the AL Cy Young? It’s not he was particularly lucky last season, and he has the stuff to sustain it, and has been incredibly healthy throughout his career. For some reason it seems like everyone has suddenly decided that Jon Lester is going to take a big step forward this season, which is far from a guarantee. He might rack up the wins pitching for the loaded Red Sox, but I think Felix’s win last year showed that pitcher wins are on the way out as far as Cy Young voting goes. Of course, there are lots of other good pitchers in the league who could very well win it, but I think Felix has to be the favorite at this point, looking at track records. Most people seem to be playing it safe by picking Halladay in the NL, and it seems silly that nobody seems to want to do that for the AL award.
Felix could very well repeat. If you look at the stats, Weaver was right there with him last year. I don’t remember the exact stat but Felix did not allow a run in over 200 of his total innings pitched… Crazy!!! I just like Weaver’s chances this year.
Weaver was great last season as well and could very well win it this year, but none of the writers here (or anywhere else that I’ve seen for that matter) picked him, either. It’s Jon Lester all the time everywhere, and to me that makes no sense at all.
IMO, the most likely winners this year (in descending order) are
Felix
Verlander
Weaver
Lester
Brett Anderson
I’m a Sox fan and a gigantic Lester fanboy, but I can’t say I sincerely disagree here. I would probably flop Weaver and Verlander, though and I’d consider it a tossup between Lester and Weaver.
Lester’s quite possibly the best lefty in the AL and I could see him taking it, but it would involve Hernandez regressing and the Angels performing poorly for him to take it, in my opinion. I’d put all my money on Hernandez either way.
Plus, I’m actively pulling for Lester to finish at three at the highest. Any higher and he can opt out of the last year of his contract.
well, most of the writer’s picked Crawford and others to go to the Angels this offseason and they didn’t…. maybe not picking them to win will have the opposite results
Atlanta’s the sleeper team that wins it all!
my predictions are
nl east philiadelphia finishing two games above the braves
nl west la dodgers 5 games above the giants
nl central cubs 3 games over the cards 4 over the reds
nl wildcard braves
al west texas 2 games over oakland
al east toronto 2 games over boston 7 games over yankees
al central twins 2 games over detroit 5 games over white sox
al wildcard boston
world series cubs over toronto in 7
I love your optimism for the Jays but probably not this year…unfortunately
I guess some Cub fans started drinking the day BEFORE opening day in Wrigleyville.
Spring training wins can be telling:
bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/29/divining-clues-f…
Oh, and go brewers
article is F-Minus
I really think Zach Britton for the O’s can be ROY, he had a outstanding spring against some formidable lineups. Other than that the predictions are what they should be…best guesses
My guess
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Athletics
AL WC: Jays
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Rockies
NL WC: Braves
ALCS: Red Sox over White Sox
NLCS: Reds over Phillies
WS: Red Sox over Reds
Angels over Athletics but this is a prediction I can get behind…Go Jays
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays
ALCS: Red Sox over Blue Jays
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Rockies
NL Wild Card: Phillies
NLCS: Rockies over Braves
World Series: Red Sox over Rockies
AL MVP: Joe Mauer
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL ROY: Kyle Drabek
NL ROY: Brandon Belt
AL Cy Young: Brandon Morrow
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
Brandon Morrow for Cy young!!!
I think he def has one in his future
Ok .. I’ll Play.
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Athletics
AL WC: Yankees
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Rockies
NL WC: Braves
ALCS: Red Sox over White Sox
NLCS: Phillies over Rockies
WS: Phillies over Red Sox
Yes, I’m a Phillies fan – but I really think they can do it this year.
I like the braves for the east, and Freeman for Roy !
Red Sox are a lock, Yankees are old and an injury or two away from battling the O’s for last place. Have not seen any mention of the Japaneese batting champ signed by the Twins Nishioka, should be a strong candidate for roy and hitting in front of Mauer should see plenty of good pitches.
My only concern with the A’s is that their pitching staff has received so much focus..that they might be a little overated.
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: A’s
Wild Card: Twins
ALCS: Red Sox over A’s
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Brett Anderson
AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
Wild Card: Phillies
NLCS: Brewers over Giants
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Cliff Lee
NL ROY: Brandon Belt
World Series: Brewers over Red Sox
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: Yankees
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Rockies
NL WC: Giants
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Phillies over Brewers
World Series: Red Sox over Phillies
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
AL Cy Young: Feliz Hernandez
NL MVP: Prince Fielder
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: White Sox
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Phillies
ALCS: Red Sox over Twins
NLCS: Braves over Cards
WS: Braves over Red Sox
NL MVP: Pujols
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL Cy Young: Halladay
AL Cy Young: Price
NL ROY: Freeman
AL ROY: Hellickson
Maybe I’m a bit of a homer.
You weren’t ENOUGH of a homer…Your team won the World Series dude!
My picks are in bold:
AL East—Usually I disdain the fact that this is the only division in baseball as far as the media is concerned, and yeah, I live on the West Coast. But I like what’s going on in Tampa Bay bringing in Johnny Damon, who will probably perform as he has the last year or two, and Manny Ramirez, who I think will probably bring back numbers looking more like 2008 than the last 2 years. Baltimore, with their mix of serviceable vets and young talent, and oh wait, that Buck Showalter guy has made sure you know he’s running the team (in the news if not on the field). All that said, if you watch ESPN, MLB Network, or your local cable access show of choice, you already know that first place will go to Boston Red Sox, followed buy those NY Yankees people.
AL Central: None of the accredited professional people picked the Detroit Tigers; I thought they’d get a little bit more respect than that, so chalk me up for them! I like the Twins’ makeup too, but White Sox second.
AL West: Maybe the Rangers, if only because they get to play 81 games in Arlington. Rafael Palmiero, Juan Gonzales, Pudge Rodriguez, who needs pitching? Oooops, old notes, let me rephrase that… Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre… Rangers actally do need pitching. Oakland Athletics to win the West.
NL East: Phillies’ pitching RIDICULOUS, probably best since Palmer, McNally, Cuellar & Dobson (back when pitchers went longer than 5 and 2/3 innings). The Atlanta Braves have pretty doggoned good team all around. Other than the Tigers, this is my out on a limb pick.
NL Central: I really want to give props to Doug Melvin for making some ballsy moves as GM, pulling the trigger on some good deals for his team; 2 legitimate offensive superstars and a very, VERY respectable rotation. However, the Cincinnati Reds get my nod; having a similarly talented roster, but for some reason I still give the Reds the nod. Shame I can’t list the Cards & Cubs, because personally I like both teams, but it’s not just their time.
NL West: Okay, this is where my pick can easily be invalidated as a “homer”, but yes, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The ownership sucks, but thankfully I can tune that out. This is a team full of “IF’S”, but I feel positive about them just the same. Going where it matters, the rotation one through five, I’d put up against any other teams as at the very least, competitive. The main heart of the lineup is where a difference needs to be made, with Ethier, Kemp & Loney needing to have “expected” years, though not necessarily career years. The Giants lineup may have in some peoples eye’s (including mine initially), played over their heads, but they are for real. Posey, Belt & a slimmed down Sandoval can hurt the NL West for years to come. Colorado is the “sexy” pick with some under-publicized (if not underrated) performances by Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzales & Ubaldo Jimenez, but I still like LA to bounce back. By the way, The Padres look like they have put together a team that nobody should expect to be a nice host when they go to visit sunny San Diego. Arizona? They have a nice pool in right-center if you go to visit.