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Archives for February 2011

Poll: Chris Carpenter’s Future

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The month of February hasn’t been kind to the Cardinals. First they failed to reach an agreement with Albert Pujols on a long-term contract, then they lost Nick Punto for up to 12 weeks with a hernia, and then they lost Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery. That’s enough bad news to last St. Louis the season, nevermind Spring Training.

In the wake of Wainwright’s injury, it’s been speculated that Chris Carpenter could become available in a trade at some point should the Cardinals fall out of contention. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Carpenter wouldn’t stand in the way of a deal (he can veto any trade thanks to his ten-and-five rights), and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggested the right-hander could be a fit for the pitching-starved Yankees.

As great as Carpenter is, he’s neither young nor cheap. He’ll turn 36 in April and his contract guarantees him $15MM this season, after which a $15MM club option ($1MM buyout) comes into play. With Pujols’ impending free agency hanging over their heads and two more seasons until Kyle Lohse’s $12.2MM annual salary comes off the books, it’s possible the Cardinals will look to shed Carpenter’s salary and use that money towards keeping their superstar first baseman. It’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the nine-figure contract Pujols will command, but every little bit helps.

Carpenter has pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 52.7% ground ball rate since coming back from Tommy John surgery in late 2008. He’s shown no ill-effects from the procedure, throwing at least 192 innings in each of the last two seasons. If made available, teams would be lining up to acquire him, and not just the Yankees either. However, it’s possible that Carpenter would want his 2012 option picked up in exchange for agreeing to a trade, which could his limit market.

It seems unlikely that St. Louis would look to trade pitching – quality pitching at that – after Wainwright’s injury, but moving Carpenter would have to at least be considered if they fall out of contention at some point. The potential return in the form of young players and cash savings could be too good to pass up.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Free agency hit the Rays especially hard this offseason.  Their expected losses were known well in advance, but it's still a daunting list.  The Rays saw almost their entire bullpen sign elsewhere, watched Crawford ink a megadeal with a division rival, and traded a few regulars for good measure.  The fascinating part is that Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman still put together a team that will compete in baseball's toughest division.

Just to underscore the Rays' losses: 11 members of the 2010 team signed Major League contracts elsewhere this winter, most of them as free agents.  Teams committed $238.05MM to the group over 24 contract years.  The eleven departed players will earn about $67MM in 2011, roughly $25MM more than the Rays' entire payroll.  On the plus side, the losses of Crawford, Soriano, Balfour, Benoit, Choate, Hawpe, and Qualls will result in ten extra draft picks within the top 75 in June.  You have to wonder if Hawpe and Qualls denied their arbitration offers due to handshake agreements beforehand, which MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith alluded to in January.

Damon

Despite ranking sixth in the AL in on-base percentage and eighth in slugging, the Rays' 2010 offense placed third at 4.95 runs per game due to exceptional hitting with runners in scoring position.  2011 brings offensive changes at first base, shortstop, left field, and designated hitter.  Of the four positions, only left fielder Crawford actually produced at the plate last year.  I think the dropoff from Crawford to Damon will be outweighed by improvements at the other three spots.  The Rays' timely hitting of 2010 will be tough to replicate, but the Damon/Manny tandem brings a pair of strong OBPs to the offense at the least.  Certainly there is a defensive loss in left field, but going from Bartlett to Brignac at shortstop is an improvement.

One could argue that Jeremy Hellickson is actually an upgrade over Garza in the rotation despite the former's inexperience in the Majors.  I imagine the Rays would have preferred to maintain the depth, but felt the need to reallocate Garza's money.  Friedman still made a big score in plucking five players out of the Cubs' farm system in the trade.

Even if the Rays had committed the $62.6MM required to retain Soriano, Benoit, Balfour, and Wheeler, the group obviously would not have been good for another 227 innings of 2.10 ball in 2011.  Can Friedman's new ragtag bunch manage an ERA under 4.00 this year?  It's anybody's guess, but Benoit, Balfour, and Howell were not considered relief aces when they first came to Tampa Bay.  And as manager Joe Maddon explained recently, no one was penciling the 2010 crew in as the league's best pen a year ago.  The 2011 bullpen is packed with sleepers.  As I mentioned in the Twins offseason in review, if you have to skimp on one area, let it be the bullpen.  

Given the impossible position Friedman was in, I liked the Rays' offseason.  The Rays did a lot with the $12.5MM spent on big league free agents and assembled an interesting group of minor league deals.  Even with an $80MM payroll the Rays probably would not have won the Crawford bidding, though they might still have Garza as well as more certainty in the pen.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Crasnick On The A’s Offseason

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The Athletics, much like the Brewers, enjoyed a surprisingly fine offseason, and, not surprisingly, had to get a little bit creative to do so. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com caught up with A's GM Billy Beane, and here are the highlights:

  • Beane said that, because of the A's financial constraints, their offseason strategy is often dictated by the moves they can't make. Oakland, after all, has a payroll that's about one-quarter the size of the Yankees', writes Crasnick. So, some players are simply going to get better offers from other teams.
  • Such was the case this offseason, when the A's were turned down by free agents Lance Berkman, Adrian Beltre and Hisashi Iwakuma.
  • Instead, the A's chose to make modest, "incremental" changes to their offense, according to Crasnick, improving the corner-outfield spots by trading for David DeJesus and Josh Willingham, and adding free-agent DH Hideki Matsui. And, elsewhere, they wanted to further augment their strengths: pitching and defense. Their strong, young rotation is the team's backbone, and that advantage is compounded by their home park's spacious dimensions and sizable foul territory.
  • Signing a pair of not-cheap relievers in Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour may seem somewhat uncharacteristic of a scrupulous GM like Beane, especially when he himself has already cultivated a fine bullpen comprised of effective, cost-controlled types, but he had his reasons. "They're too good to be out there, and we had money to afford them," Beane told Crasnick.
  • As well, the A's wanted to defray the workload on the guys already in the bullpen, who logged the 12th-fewest innings in the AL in 2010, according to Crasnick, but were worn down from a taxing 2009 in which they were called upon too frequently.

For a comprehensive list of all the A's offseason moves, check out our Transaction Tracker.

Quick Hits: Rowand, Cabrera, Simon, Loans

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Here are some items of note for Friday night, including an interesting question posed by Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com on the Mets' and Dodgers' messy financial situations:

  • Giants outfielder Aaron Rowand will be under a lot of scrutiny this spring, writes Chris Haft of MLB.com, as he looks to be the odd man out in San Francisco's crowded outfield. It won't be easy to flip him though, Haft notes, because two years and $24MM remain on his contract, and he's coming off a down year in 2010. If the Giants do move Rowand, according to Haft, their trade partner will probably ask them to eat some salary or take on a similar financial commitment in return.
  • Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera made his on-field debut at Spring Training on Friday, writes Jason Beck of MLB.com. His arrival, of course, was delayed by last week's arrest for allegedly driving under the influence and resisting arrest. Cabrera is facing the proverbial two-strike count with respect to his off-field travails, writes Steve Henson of Yahoo! Sports: If Cabrera slips up again, he will likely face serious repercussions from Major League Baseball.
  • Orioles right-hander Alfredo Simon is no longer facing a civil suit after he was a suspect in a fatal shooting in his native Dominican Republic on New Year's Eve, but, per a Santo Domingo prosecutor, an investigation is ongoing and Simon has been denied bail, according to the Baltimore Sun. Prosecutors have till April 9 to file formal charges that could lead to a trial.
  • The Mets' $25MM loan from MLB may be the most damning indication of their financial woes, says Rosenthal in an audio clip. Rosenthal also finds it curious that MLB loaned the cash to the Mets but denied the Dodgers' request to borrow $200MM from FOX, as was reported by Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. "It's a simple question of fairness," says Rosenthal.

Jack Of All Trades: My First 2011 Pack

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While much of the attention has been focused on the anniversary that Topps is celebrating- 60 years of selling baseball cards- I, too, reached a milestone. I've been collecting baseball cards for 25 years, going back to the first pack of Topps I opened in 1986, with Glenn Wilson there to greet me first.

My collecting isn't as serious as it was when I was growing up, but it still represents a part of me that stubbornly refuses to mature. After all, I don't get the thrill of trading with my friends anymore. My wife doesn't have any cards I want, and my baby daughter offers little for my best cards, other than future considerations in exchange for the chance to chew on one. (Screw-top cases are the thinking father's teether.)

But when this year's Topps came out, I treated myself to a box. If I couldn't trade them myself, I figured, I could write about just which trades I'd find hidden within a random pack of cards. Here's what I found, from my very first pack in the box.

First up was Kevin Kouzmanoff, a participant in two trades. Back in November 2006, the Indians traded Kouzmanoff and Andrew Brown to San Diego for Josh Barfield. Alas, none of the participants in that trade panned out, and San Diego shipped Kouzmanoff and discipline-rich infielder Eric Sogard to the Athletics for outfielders Aaron Cunningham, who was useful in 2010, and Scott Hairston, who really wasn't. Both from a trade and card standpoint, it was kind of a Glenn Wilson way to start.

Next came Brandon Inge, a man who has worked hard to stay out of MLBTR's web, much like a celebrity who tries to avoid TMZ by wearing underwear. He was drafted by the Tigers in 1998, and that is where you'll find him today. Same goes for my third card, Peter Bourjos, a product of the Anaheim organization still in Anaheim. Bourjos is pictured about to either make a sliding catch, or gift someone a triple.

Fourth up was a special card- recognizing Manny Ramirez for putting up the ninth-best OPS of all time. Ramirez has seen his share of moving around, but only one trade bears his name. It is one of the more underrated moves of the past few years. The Dodgers, as part of a three-way deal, sent Bryan Morris and Andy LaRoche to the Pirates, while the Red Sox traded Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to the Pirates. The Dodgers got Ramirez. The Red Sox got Bay. Leave aside Bay for a moment- that means the Dodgers got 223 games of a 170 OPS+ from Ramirez for Bryan Morris and Andy LaRoche. That was a steal. I'm putting Ramirez in hard plastic.

Batting fifth, a game-used memorabilia card from Josh Hamilton. He earned the honor for finishing with the highest OPS in baseball last year, while Topps earns major plaudits from me for caring so much about expanded stats. (Get me a Topps card with WAR and we'll really be talking.) The Hamilton deal back in December 2007 was one of my favorites. The Reds got back pitchers Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera. Despite Hamilton's injury struggles since then, he's been significantly more valuable than Volquez, leading to the obvious conclusion: bank on the position ahead of the pitcher in any challenge trade. They are far more projectible.

Batting sixth is Stephen Strasburg, while Andre Ethier takes up the seventh spot. I don't intend to ruin any nights among Nats or Dodgers fans by suggesting that either one has been traded. But I thought of the two as a kind of Hamilton-for-Volquez challenge trade. Which future would you bet on? The smart money is probably on Ethier, even with the dramatically higher ceiling Strasburg offers.

Rounding out the pack was a CC Sabathia card, inviting me to unlock some digital Topps cards. I admit to being confused by the idea of virtual cards-isn't that just eBay cards I look at but can't afford?- but will happily see what the online fuss is all about. Having a virtual CC Sabathia is probably what the Milwaukee Brewers felt like they had after dealing Michael Brantley, Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson for him in the summer of 2008, only to see the Yankees snap him up that winter.

Overall, it was not my strongest pack of all time- that would be a 1989 Donruss pack I got on a trip to a bagel establishment long since defunct in Marlton, NJ, which contained eight all stars in 15 cards, if memory serves. But the pack served a vital purpose- by the time I finished looking, baseball season was that much closer.

Chad Durbin Close To Signing With Indians

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FRIDAY, 8:10pm: Durbin's agent is in Arizona, talking to the Indians and other interested teams, according to Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer (via Twitter).

FRIDAY, 10:33am: Durbin is close to signing with the Indians, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer says the team has no comment at this time (Twitter links).

THURSDAY, 5:56pm: The Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, Rays, and Royals are also pursuing the hurler, tweets Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.

3:59pm: The Indians and free agent right-hander Chad Durbin are in talks according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (on Twitter), and a deal could happen within a day or two. 

Earlier this week we heard that the Red Sox, Rays, Phillies, Rangers, and Mariners were all in pursuit of the 33-year-old, who indicated that he would accept a minor league deal from Philadelphia if his "hand is forced because there are no Major League offers on the table." A few weeks ago Durbin said that he hoped to join a contender, which doesn't really define the Indians.

Cleveland is seeking a starting pitcher, having been connected to both Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Bonderman in recent weeks. Although Durbin hasn't started a game since 2007, he has 75 career MLB starts to his credit and may wish to give it another shot. The bullpen is always a fallback.

Morosi On The Brewers, Prince

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The Brew Crew emerged from the offseason as one of its winners, bolstered their starting rotation significantly and preserving a potent lineup. Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com checks in with some items of interest from Brewers camp, most notably how Prince Fielder's uncertain future shaped their offseason and the season to come.

  • This spring will probably be Fielder's last with the Brewers, writes Morosi, but after a fine offseason, the slugger and team are in good spirits as they embark on what could be a run at the postseason. Fielder and the Brewers are not currently in extension negotiations, and Morosi thinks that is a sound strategy, because it won't give the fan base false hope.
  • Because Fielder was prominent in trade rumors even as early as last season, many figured the Brewers wouldn't be able to acquire an ace pitcher this offseason without flipping him. They did, of course, landing not only an ace in Zack Greinke, but another solid mid-rotation arm in Shaun Marcum.
  • Fielder's situation with the Brewers is reminiscent of Carl Crawford's final season with the Rays in 2010, when the star player and small-market club knew they'd probably part ways after the season.
  • These Brewers and those Rays differ, however, in that although Milwaukee is gearing up for a postseason push with one of its best players on the brink of free agency, all of its other core players are either locked up to long-term deals or under team control, whereas Tampa Bay severed ties with a handful of other key contributors like Matt Garza, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano and Joaquin Benoit.
  • The difference in hype between Fielder's and Albert Pujols' pending free agencies is "disproportionately large," writes Morosi, because although Pujols is the superior player, he's also four years older.

Make Or Break Year: Bobby Abreu

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5061012196515_Athletics_at_Angels From 1998 through 2009, just nine players in baseball posted an on-base percentage of at least .400 (min. 6,000 PA), and only one did it with more than 100 total steals. That would be Bobby Abreu. From ages 24 through 35 ('98-'09), Abreu hit .301/.406/.497 with 253 homers and 341 steals for the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels. He wasn't quite a five-tool threat because his defense left a lot to be desired, but Abreu was an offensive force for more than a decade.

But in 2010, at age 36, the roof started to cave in. Abreu hit .255/.352/.435 overall, his lowest full season OPS ever. Although he still stole 24 bases, he was caught ten times for a 70.5% success rate, well below his 75.8% success rate from '98-'09. Abreu's first 40 double, 20 homer season since 2004 still resulted in the lowest full season slugging percentage of his career. 

Both the player and club are in a bind in 2011. Abreu's contract contains a $9MM vesting option for 2012 that will kick in with 433 plate appearances next year, a total he's reached every year since 1998. If the option vests, the Angels are on the hook for another year of Abreu's decline phase. If it doesn't, Abreu is a declining 37-year-old free agent that is best suited for designated hitter. Those guys aren't in high demand.

The Halos have the option of platooning Abreu in 2011, which would limit his plate appearances. He hit just .228/.296/.342 against southpaws in 2010, down from .267/.348/.386 in 2009 and .315/.370/.495 in 2008. The team doesn't appear to have an obvious right-handed platoon partner though, unless they try to really force the issue with someone like Brandon Wood or Bobby Wilson.

Abreu has long been a productive player in this league, one that should at least spark some Hall of Fame debate, but his best course of action in 2011 is to play well enough (and often enough) that his option kicks in. It's highly unlikely he'll find that kind of money on the open market after the season.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Teams Monitoring Nick Johnson

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Teams seeking a midseason on-base percentage boost would be wise to keep an eye on free agent Nick Johnson.  After signing a one-year deal with the Yankees in December of 2009, Johnson appeared in only 24 games before a wrist injury ended his season.  Two surgeries later, Johnson is "heading in the right direction" according to his agent Rex Gary.

Gary told MLBTR Johnson has been working out at Athletes' Performance Institute since October and clubs are monitoring his progress closely.  The first baseman/DH is not expected to be ready for the start of the season and is not able to swing a bat at full bore currently.  Still, Gary expects Johnson to be ready "early in the season."  The agent added that Johnson will need some time in the minors, as he hasn't played in a game since May 7th of last year.

Johnson, 32, has a .401 career on-base percentage in nine seasons for the Yankees, Expos, Nationals, and Marlins.  He's battled injuries throughout his career, but should still be an asset when he's able to play.

Quick Hits: Torre, Angels, Pirates, Millwood, Tigers

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On this date last year, the Rangers voided Khalil Greene's $750K contract after he wasn't able to report to Spring Training due to social anxiety disorder. Greene did not play at all last season and remains a free agent.  

Here are today's batch of links…

  • Commissioner Bud Selig is scheduled to make a major announcement tomorrow, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Joe Torre will be hired as Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, meaning he'll oversee on-the-field activity for MLB.
  • Angels GM Tony Reagins spoke to Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times about the team's use of advanced statistics. "We definitely use them," said the GM. Front office member Justin Hollander said they "use it for base-running, offense, defense, everything out there … If [Reagins] asks me to look at a guy in terms of a long-term contract, trade, free-agent signing, minor leaguer, he will know what I'm thinking and assign a value to it."
  • Rob Biertempfel of The Pittburgh Tribune-Review says that the big test for Pirates owner Bob Nutting will be when young players like Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata are in line for long-term contract extensions. Team president Frank Coonelly recently spoke about what the team looks for when handing out such contracts.
  • Bernie Miklasz of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch isn't sure why the Cardinals are so averse to signing Kevin Millwood to a one-year deal in the wake of Adam Wainwright's injury. Yesterday we heard that GM John Mozeliak said the team will first look internally for a solution.
  • James Schmehl of MLive.com updates you on the 11 players from the Tigers' active roster last season that have since moved on. 

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