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2011-12 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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The Mets rebuilt their bullpen and lost Jose Reyes this offseason, lowering payroll by a record $50MM in the process.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Matt Tuiasosopo, Miguel Batista, Rob Johnson, Chuck James, Lucas May, Garrett Olson, Adam Loewen.

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Draft Picks Gained or Lost

  • Obtained 71st overall selection from Marlins for Reyes. Also obtain supplementary first round pick, 35th overall. 

The Mets lost their franchise shortstop, lowered payroll by a record $50MM and watched as the Marlins and Nationals spent and traded aggressively. It wasn’t a fun offseason to be a Mets fan.

Despite the team’s interest in Jose Reyes, the free agent shortstop signed with Miami for $106MM. The Mets didn’t seem willing to guarantee the dynamic 28-year-old shortstop more than five years and $75-85MM, and Reyes said they never extended a formal offer.

GM Sandy Alderson is working with a payroll in the $90MM range, but with Johan Santana and Jason Bay combining to earn $40MM of that sum, he didn’t have much flexibility. To replace Reyes, the Mets will rely on Ruben Tejada and newcomer Ronny Cedeno. Though they offer a promising balance of upside and certainty on paper, the pair may cost the Mets three or four wins relative to Reyes, who's one of the best in the game.

The Mets did spend on their bullpen, signing a pair of free agents who spent the 2011 campaign in Toronto: Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch. Francisco had a respectable season, pitching especially well after the All-Star break, but it took $12MM to sign him. Given that relievers such as Chad Qualls, Todd Coffey, Takashi Saito, LaTroy Hawkins and Kerry Wood signed for $3MM or less, $12MM seems like a lot for Francisco.

Still, Alderson’s decision to improve the bullpen makes sense, since it was a clear area of need entering the offseason. The Mets also obtained Ramon Ramirez from the Giants in the trade that sent non-tender candidate Angel Pagan to San Francisco for Andres Torres. Ramirez, who has put together four solid seasons in a row, will be a welcome addition to Terry Collins' bullpen. It's also possible that relievers such as Bobby Parnell and Manny Acosta will show progress, further improving the 'pen.

The change of scenery swap brings Torres, a 34-year-old journeyman to the Mets. His career batting line is inferior to Pagan's, but Torres costs $2.7MM in 2012 and is under team control through 2013, while Pagan will earn $4.85MM before hitting free agency this coming offseason. UZR suggests Torres is an excellent outfielder and defense was indeed a driving reason for the trade.

"More than anything, we're expecting solid center field defense from Torres," vice predident of player development and scouting Paul DePodesta told MLBTR. "Offensively, we'd anticipate something in between his 2011 and 2010 performances."

The Mets' signing of Chris Capuano worked out nicely in 2011, when the left-hander made 31 starts. The team didn’t make any such additions this offseason, though swingman Miguel Batista re-signed on a minor league deal. If Johan Santana’s shoulder limits him in a significant way — a real possibility given the nature of shoulder injuries and the trouble he encountered last summer — the Mets may explore the market for starting pitching. So far, they haven't been as eager to sign starting pitchers as they were a year ago.

"There were two main factors at play," DePodesta explained. "One, we felt strongly about Capuano a year ago and didn't have the same conviction about someone in this year's class. And two, we didn't have the same opportunity to sell this year. With Santana coming back, we had a full rotation, assuming health. Therefore, our situation wasn't as appealing to a Capuano-esque starter."

One of the most significant moves of the Mets' quiet offseason occurred when the club officially decided to moves the outfield fences in at Citi Field. The change ostensibly creates balance between offense and defense, but it could also increase fan interest and enhance the trade value of certain Mets position players.

If David Wright drew serious trade interest, we didn't hear about it at MLBTR. The currently sidelined third baseman could rebuild his trade value in his suddenly cozy home park if he stays healthy. A midseason deal is possible, but if the Mets wait until next winter, they'd be offering Wright for a full season instead of just the pennant race.

The Mets seem content to rely on catchers Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas for the duration of the 2012 campaign. Veteran free agents including Ivan Rodriguez were available, but it makes sense for a developing team such as the Mets to see what their young, internal candidates can do before turning to the veteran stopgap types.

Optimistic Mets fans will look to the likes of Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey and Jenrry Mejia and hope for big seasons in 2012. There's also Zack Wheeler, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Brandon Nimmo and the promise of the 12th overall pick this June. Talent is on the way.

Yet the Mets' offseason was at best unspectacular and at worst demoralizing. Until the team's bad contracts officially expire and the multi-million dollar lawsuit against against owners Saul Katz and Fred Wilpon is settled, there's no indication that the Mets will stop operating like a small-market club. Sometimes it’s hard to believe they play in the biggest market in the U.S.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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Surprisingly, the Rays augmented their offense through free agency.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

For some MLB teams, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Alex Torres, and Alex Cobb would all have rotation spots.  For the Rays, they rank #5-8 on the depth chart.  After fielding offers for various starting pitchers for the offseason's first few months, the Rays chose to maintain their rotation depth and simply sign a pair of free agents to bolster the offense.

Icon_9954168The Rays inked Pena and Scott for a total of $13.25MM in January to replace first baseman Kotchman and designated hitter Damon.  Damon didn't understand why the two positions were considered means to upgrade the offense, but the increased power potential from Pena and Scott is obvious.  The Rays can't afford to pay full sticker price for free agent power.  Pena was available on a one-year deal because he's batted .216 over the past three seasons and slugged .402 when he was last in the American League in his previous Rays stint.  Scott had been non-tendered by the Orioles after an ugly 2011 season was cut short by July shoulder surgery, and he's limited defensively.  Damon and Kotchman were far from sure things themselves, but Pena and Scott have higher offensive ceilings.

The team's unheard-of rotation depth is likely to be fully utilized in the course of the season, as most teams need seven starters in a good year.  Almost all pitchers want to remain starters as long as possible, and whether Davis or Niemann goes to the bullpen to start the season, the move will be temporary.

The Rays' bullpen needed some tinkering, and executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made some unpredictable acquisitions in Rodney, Badenhop, and Lueke.  In the Rodney signing press release, Friedman provided a euphemism for Rodney's control issues, saying, "Fernando's pure stuff is top-notch and can beat hitters both in and out of the strike zone."  Having walked almost eight batters per nine innings in a 2011 season shortened by a back injury, I thought Rodney was in line for a minor league deal.  He still throws over 95 and gets tons of groundballs, and it's likely the Rays feel pitching coach Jim Hickey can get Rodney's walk rate down to a tolerable level.  Badenhop is an extreme groundballer as well, a nice fit for the best defensive team in baseball.  The 29-year-old allowed just one home run in 63 2/3 innings last year for the Marlins.  

Though light on experienced big league catching, the Rays also traded Jaso to the Mariners for Lueke.  The Rays are no strangers to controversial players, and Lueke comes with the baggage of the 2008 rape charge for which he later pled no contest for false imprisonment with violence.  Friedman said upon the trade, "We researched the 2009 incident that Josh was involved in thoroughly and in great detail.  We’re satisfied that he is going to be the kind of person and teammate that we look for and we expect him to contribute positively to our group."  The Rays may have lowered the bar in their search for undervalued players, suggested John Romano of the St. Petersburg Times in November.

The Rays appear to be aiming for improved defense behind the plate, having traded Jaso and declined Shoppach's option.  Since they didn't receive offense from the position anyway in 2011, it made sense to double-down on defense.  Using the 36-year-old Molina as more than a backup is an interesting experiment given his strong defensive skills, but if he breaks down, inexperienced catchers Jose Lobaton, Robinson Chirinos, and Chris Gimenez could be handling the American League's best rotation with regularity.  Expect the Rays to keep a close eye on the catching market this summer.  There's also uncertainty at the shortstop position currently, but Hak-Ju Lee may be ready as early as next season.

The Rays kept the well-regarded Friedman-Maddon duo in place, as Friedman declined to interview for the Astros GM job and Maddon signed a three-year extension.  Friedman authored yet another precedent-setting contract for pitching phenom Matt Moore, signing him to a five-year deal despite just 17 days of Major League service.  There's risk in guaranteeing $14MM to a pitcher so green, but barring injury the Rays probably saved tens of millions of dollars and snagged a pair of free agent years, at their option.  Some young players are less receptive to this type of contract, perhaps including young Rays Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, who are represented by the Boras Corporation.

The Rays hope they've found a way to improve their offense without affecting their rotation depth.  If the offense sputters, Friedman will still be in a strong position this summer, as few clubs can part with quality starting pitching without missing a beat.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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The Athletics restocked their farm system and restored outfield depth this offseason, but their future in Oakland remains unresolved.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Manny Ramirez, Brandon Moss, Jason Pridie, Edgar Gonzalez.

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Draft Picks Gained or Lost

  • Obtained 34th, 62nd overall selections for losing Willingham. 
  • Obtained 47th overall selection for losing DeJesus.

When the offseason began, it was clear that the A’s would have to assemble a new outfield and weigh offers for their controllable young pitchers. Billy Beane didn’t hold back, adding six outfielders and trading away as many experienced arms. The result: a new-look Athletics team whose future in Oakland remains undetermined.

After ranking sixth among American League teams in runs allowed a year ago, the A’s decided to part with a ton of pitching: Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Craig Breslow, Andrew Bailey, Josh Outman and Guillermo Moscoso. One man who didn’t change teams was the one doing the trading. Beane reportedly attracted interest from clubs with GM openings this offseason, but he stayed put in Oakland. Parting with so much pitching was difficult, but the A's viewed the trades as a necessary step.

“There was a need to infuse a quantity of talent into the system,” director of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told MLBTR. “And when you’re looking to do that, you have to be willing to give up your best assets. You have to start from the top in terms of guys you’re willing to shop.”

As unpleasant as it must have been for the A's to part with Gonzalez after back-to-back 200 inning seasons, I can see why they made the move when they did. Gonzalez is getting expensive via arbitration, he's prone to walks and good luck appears to have deflated his ERA to an extent since 2010. Still, any team would miss a pitcher of his caliber.

The Bailey trade was equally defensible given the $3.9MM salary he'll earn in 2012, his past health concerns and Oakland's other bullpen arms. Some consider Josh Reddick a fourth outfielder, so it's not as though the Athletics obtained a sure thing in return for their former closer, but perhaps it’s time to temper expectations when it comes to trades involving relief pitchers. Teams haven't always obtained much of substance in return for relievers in the past year. Reddick will get the chance to prove the naysayers wrong as the club's everyday right fielder in 2012.

The decision to trade Cahill, a durable, young ground ball pitcher who's under team control through 2017, was more puzzling. Jarrod Parker, under team control for the same period, showed promise in Double-A last year, and he appears to have more top of the rotation potential. But he's just nine months younger than Cahill, and he's a season removed from Tommy John surgery. This deal makes the A's cheaper for the next few seasons, but I'm not convinced swapping a young 200 inning starter for a prospect makes them better.

There's no denying that Oakland improved its farm system this offseason. Parker and A.J. Cole are consensus top 100 prospects, according to lists at Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.com. Brad Peacock and Derek Norris both appeared on two of the three prospect lists, an indication that the industry holds Oakland’s new prospects in high esteem.

Parker, Peacock and Tom Milone could get extended looks in the rotation behind Opening Day starter Brandon McCarthy. The A’s are hoping for more than three starts from Dallas Braden this year and Brett Anderson should return from Tommy John surgery midseason. Free agent signing Bartolo Colon provides depth for just $2MM. Though he faded down the stretch in 2011, this signing will be a bargain as long as Colon strings together half a season or so of quality outings.

Josh Willingham and David DeJesus signed multiyear deals elsewhere, as expected, so the A’s outfield seemed incredibly thin until Coco Crisp re-signed a two-year, $14MM deal. Although the A’s signed him to play center field, they may decide to move Crisp to a corner spot in favor of a new acquisition.

Yoenis Cespedes obtained $36MM from Oakland despite the fact that he’s never played affiliated baseball. The A's gambled that Cespedes’ power and athleticism will vault him to stardom in the American League. This was no impulse move, either. They'd been eyeing Cespedes for a while.

“We said ‘if we make one big financial investment this offseason, this would be the guy we would do it with,’” Zaidi said.

The move also serves as a reminder that the A’s rarely if ever outbid the competition for premium domestic free agents. Major Leaguers, particularly position players, don’t seem to have a strong affinity for Oakland.

On paper Seth Smith (.881 career OPS against RHP) and Bay Area native Jonny Gomes (.877 career OPS against LHP) could platoon in the DH spot and exceed Hideki Matsui's 2011 production. Gomes' ability to hit left-handed pitching will complement Smith and Reddick nicely.

The signing of Manny Ramirez to a minor league contract makes sense for the A’s given their offensive struggles in 2011. Ramirez faces a 50-game suspension for violating MLB’s drug policy, and by the time he's eligible to play, the Athletics will have had many chances to evaluate his hitting skills. If Ramirez makes the club at some point, he could generate some buzz for a team that finished last in the Major League in attendance a year ago. More importantly for Beane and manager Bob Melvin, he might hit. Every American League team but the Mariners outscored the A's a year ago, so Oakland needs offense. Ramirez has never posted a full-season OPS below .870; why not give him a shot?

Scott Sizemore will miss the 2012 season after a promising 2011 showing, so the A’s are looking to Josh Donaldson and Adam Rosales at third base. It’s possible the club will look outside of the organization for help, and Brandon Inge, Juan Francisco and Alberto Callaspo could intrigue the front office to varying degrees.

It doesn't appear likely that the A's will score significantly more in 2012 and their thinned-out pitching staff will make it difficult to maintain last year's level of run prevention. The A’s, a 74-88 team a year ago, got younger and cheaper this offseason, but I expect they're headed for a third or fourth-place finish and 70 or so wins in 2012. Until MLB, the A’s and the Giants settle the long-term future of the franchise, the A’s will need more than their share of health and good fortune to contend.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are going for it in 2012 after acquiring Mat Latos, Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall this past offseason.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Brett Tomko, Jeff Francis, Willie Harris, Dioner Navarro, Ron Mahay, Clay Zavada, Kanekoa Texeira, Sean Gallagher, Chad Reineke.

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

When the offseason began, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes identified GM Walt Jocketty’s primary challenge as “trading for an affordable front-line starter.” Mission accomplished. 

The Reds obtained Mat Latos in a five player trade than sent Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Brad Boxberger and Yasmani Grandal to San Diego and it’s hard to imagine a better fit for Cincinnati. Though he just turned 24, Latos has already completed a pair of standout seasons with the Padres. He isn't yet arbitration eligible and will remain under team control through 2015.

Jocketty didn’t stop there, either. He added lefty reliever Sean Marshall in a deal that looks equally promising for both the Cubs and the Reds. And when the market for Ryan Madson caved in, Jocketty struck, obtaining the reliever’s services with a one-year, $8.5MM deal. Madson’s contract looks like a bargain in light of Jonathan Papelbon’s deal and, best of all, there's no chance it will handcuff the Reds long-term.

However, Jocketty locked up Marshall, Nick Masset and Jose Arredondo on multiyear extensions, so he doesn't seem to mind committing to relievers. The Marshall deal is understandable — he’s about as good as they get from the left side and could be closing games by 2013 — but the upside on the latter two contracts is limited. The Reds took on additional risk without obtaining free agent seasons or option years, so I much prefer these deals from the perspective of Masset and Arredondo.

It’d be difficult to fault Reds fans for lamenting the unresolved contract statuses of Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. Phillips, who hits free agency after the 2012 season, says he's open to a long-term deal and the Reds have interest in extending Votto, who is on track to hit free agency (and obtain a Prince Fielder-like mega-contract) two offseasons from now. Votto's one of the game's top hitters, but in a market the size of Cincinnati, accommodating a $23-24MM player would require creative accounting and roster construction.

The long-term uncertainty surrounding the Reds' two most recognizable players shouldn’t diminish the optimism in Cincinnati. Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder left the NL Central for the American League, and suddenly the division is up for grabs. 

Offense wasn't a problem for the 2011 Reds; the World Champion Cardinals were the lone NL team to outscore Cincinnati a year ago. Most of their top position players are back, though Ramon Hernandez signed a free agent contract with the Rockies. If all goes according to plan, production at catcher won’t drop off this year, when highly-touted rookie Devin Mesoraco will get most of the reps behind the plate. There's room for improvement on defense, since Hernandez is viewed as below-average with the glove.

Though Chris Heisey has 26 homers in 534 career plate appearances, the Reds brought in the right-handed hitting Ryan Ludwick and the left-handed hitting Willie Harris to provide depth and competition. Heisey's ability play all three outfield positions enabled the Reds to send Dave Sappelt to the Cubs without having to worry about backing up Stubbs. No one's counting on Ludwick to hit 37 home runs again and if he provides some offense against left-handed pitching in a part-time role, he'll meet expectations.

The club let Edgar Renteria leave as a free agent, content to rely on the sure-handed Paul Janish and rookie Zack Cozart at shortstop. Given the cost of the few available free agent shortstops who would have represented an upgrade for the Reds, standing pat at short made sense. Most contenders won't be relying so heavily on rookies at up-the-middle positions, however.

After parting with Wood and Volquez in trades, the Reds found themselves short on MLB-caliber starters. The signing of Jeff Francis topped MLBTR's list of the offseason's best minor league deals. He's no front-of-the-rotation starter, but the southpaw adds balance to a righty-heavy rotation at minimal risk. In fact Jocketty minimized risk throughout the entire offseason, preferring one-year contracts and minor league invites to the multiyear deals that threaten to become albatrosses.

On paper, the Reds strengthened their big league team over the course of the winter. Jocketty added a frontline starter, two of the game’s best relievers and a collection of complementary pieces, improving their chances of winning a weakened NL Central in the process. Team-friendly extensions for Phillips and Votto would have capped the offseason off perfectly, but the coming season promises to be an exciting one nonetheless. The Reds can legitimately hope to reclaim the NL Central title in 2012.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants traded for a pair of starting outfielders and spent their free agent money on left-handed relievers.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

The Giants' pitching staff held strong in 2011, but their offense plummeted to a National League-worst 3.52 runs scored per game.  Brian Sabean, baseball's longest-tenured GM, attacked the problem by acquiring Cabrera and Pagan via trade.

Icon_12984533

Jonathan Sanchez was once considered an excellent trade chip, but after an injury and walk-filled 2011, Cabrera (pictured) was probably the best hitter Sabean could get for him.  The Giants' rotation won't miss a beat with the loss.  Sabean might have bought high on Cabrera, who hit .305/.339/.470 in 706 plate appearances for the Royals last year.  But for an offense-starved team like the Giants, Cabrera might end up batting third.  Melky doesn't have the speed to play an above-average center field.  He'll be well-served by a move to left field — Giants vice president of baseball operations Bobby Evans told MLBTR he thinks Cabrera will be one of the league's best defenders at the position.

Sabean then traded for the Mets' Pagan, at the expense of Torres and Ramirez.  Pagan and Torres were both valuable outfielders in 2010 who slipped offensively and defensively in '11.  Did the Giants bet on the right horse, especially given that they had to throw in Ramirez to get Torres, lost a year of control with Pagan, and will pay Pagan $2.15MM more in 2012?  Pagan is three and a half years younger and has a longer track record as an above-average hitter, so it seems the Giants made the right call.  The market didn't offer Sabean much in the way of alternatives — Coco Crisp isn't notably better, and other trade targets seemed to have excessive prices.

The Giants had an excellent bullpen in 2011, and Sabean chose to keep it intact aside from trading Ramirez.  Mota was a bargain to retain, but the Giants had to pay full sticker price to keep lefties Lopez and Affeldt.  Lopez, 34, was lightly-regarded two years ago when the Pirates signed him for $775K.  Since then he's gotten the job done with a 2.52 ERA and huge groundball rates over 110 2/3 innings.  He's still best-employed as a lefty specialist, however, and giving him $4.25MM a year was uninspired.  Around the same time the Giants faced a similar decision for Affeldt, whose option had a $4.5MM net price.  Affeldt is similar to Lopez, and the Giants chose to pay full price for both.  Evans told MLBTR it was a matter of depth, with the expectation of having to trade one reliever (ultimately Ramirez) and injury question marks for Brian Wilson and Dan Runzler.

Brandon Crawford will be the Giants' starting shortstop, with Ryan Theriot and perhaps Joaquin Arias pitching in.  Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Clint Barmes, Rafael Furcal, and Jed Lowrie were available this winter, but the Giants chose not to upgrade.  Evans told MLBTR the Giants explored the market but didn't get heavy, as they entered the offseason hoping Crawford would be their guy.  Both middle infield spots may continue to be offensive black holes, if Freddy Sanchez misses significant time due to injury again.  

Projected first baseman Aubrey Huff was an easy out in 2011, but the Giants have an intriguing backup plan in Brandon Belt.  Manager Bruce Bochy's decision two years ago to bench Aaron Rowand in favor of Torres is evidence that contracts don't make out the lineup card, Evans told MLBTR.  Overall it's difficult to picture the Giants having an above-average offense in 2012, but it'll be surprising if they can't manage more than 570 runs this time around.

Having been out of MLB for four years, Vogelsong must have been eager to take the Giants' guaranteed $8.3MM.  The Giants seem to be banking that he can become a consistent 4.00 ERA type pitcher, in which case the price will be acceptable, if not a bargain.  Lincecum's days as a bargain are ending as well, as his new deal has salaries of $18MM and $22MM.  The Giants still saved a few million, while Lincecum retained control of his free agent years.  Lincecum was reportedly seeking seven or eight years on a longer deal, and I don't blame the Giants for holding off.  Lincecum became an ace so early in his career that by 2014 the Giants will have gotten the best of him.

Signing Matt Cain is a more pressing issue, since the 27-year-old is eligible for free agency after the season.  Cain has been extremely durable over the last six seasons.  His walk rate has improved in recent years and his ability to prevent hits is proven, if not fully understood.  In '07, Cain chose guaranteed money over maximizing his arbitration earnings.  Three years later he did it again, giving up one free agent year that time.  A $100MM+ deal might give the Giants the security to allow Lincecum to leave after '13.  As $100MM+ deals for pitchers go, Cain seems a relatively sound investment.    

The Giants did an arbitration years-only extension with Sandoval this offseason, which I found unnecessary.  If you're not getting free agent years, where are the savings?  Using the optimistic assumption that Sandoval gets 600 plate appearances and hits .305 with 25 home runs, 90 runs batted in, and 75 runs in 600 plate appearances in each of the 2013 and '14 seasons, Matt Swartz estimates arbitration earnings of $18.3MM for 2012-14 if he'd gone year-to-year.  In this performance scenario, the Giants saved only $1.15MM by guaranteeing Sandoval's three arbitration years.  To make the extension worthwhile financially, the Giants are counting on Sandoval to be elite for two full seasons.  This type of contract is a hedge on the potential of a player's performance, Evans explained to MLBTR, and sometimes it's easier to find common ground on multiyear deals than one-year contracts.  He noted that an extension like this also rewards a player for his performance and helps him focus on his game. 

Posey's recovery from a grisly May leg injury will provide a boost to the Giants, while the additions of Cabrera and Pagan should make the offense less awful.  Still, it's likely Sabean will again be actively seeking run support for his top-notch pitching staff come the July trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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Ruben Amaro Jr.'s aggressive offseason approach landed him an elite but expensive closer and enabled the Phillies to lock Jimmy Rollins up for three more years.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Draft Picks Gained or Lost

  • Lost 31st overall selection to Red Sox for Papelbon.
  • Obtained 40th overall selection for losing Madson. 
  • Obtained 54th overall selection for losing Ibanez.
  • Obtained 77th overall selection for losing Madson.

It’s easy and maybe a little hip to criticize the Phillies’ offseason moves, but you’ve got to admit this club does a lot of things right. They have appeared in two of the past four World Series, and they won it all in 2008. They’ve won their division five consecutive times, most recently with an MLB-best 102-60 mark for 2011. Their pitching staff, which allowed just 3.25 runs per game last year, returns for more of the same in 2012.

Admittedly, Jonathan Papelbon’s contract already looks like a mistake. The Phillies signed him for $50MM after engaging longtime reliever Ryan Madson in talks about a similar deal. Piles of sabermetric evidence suggest it’s imprudent to invest heavily in relievers, since their performance is volatile and you’re likely paying a premium for saves. Papelbon’s a tremendous pitcher and he was going to require a multiyear commitment. But he signed for more than Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, Takashi Saito and Francisco Rodriguez combined. The Phillies overpaid, though they're better off in 2012 because of it.

The Phillies and longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins worked out a three-year, $38MM contract that makes sense for both sides. Rollins’ asking price of five years wouldn’t have worked for the Phillies, but he can still play short while adding value on offense. For a team whose window for contention is now, and not necessarily later, this deal was advisable. Signing a second-tier free agent or starting prospect Freddy Galvis wouldn’t have been enough.

GM Ruben Amaro Jr. didn’t stop tinkering with his bullpen after finalizing the Papelbon signing. He added Dontrelle Willis and Chad Qualls on Major League deals that have promise as long as Willis doesn’t face too many right-handed hitters and Qualls’ 2011 success translates from spacious Petco Park to Philadelphia’s cozy home field. 

Amaro bolstered his bench, adding Thome, Nix and Schneider for a total of $4.55MM, and making a few significant trades. Gone are Ben Francisco and Wilson Valdez, both fixtures in Philly for the past couple of seasons. The Phillies reportedly pursued Michael Cuddyer before acquiring an older, less productive version of Cuddyer: his predecessor in Colorado Ty Wigginton. 

Given the injuries currently sidelining Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco's recent troubles staying healthy for an entire season and the group of players in left field, the Wigginton trade made sense for the Phillies. For $2MM, nearly $30MM less than Cuddyer’s eventual price tag, the Phillies get a versatile player with a history of success against left-handed pitching. There's no sense acting as though Utley and Howard are the fixtures they once were, which makes infield depth particularly important for the Phillies.

They boast the best rotation in MLB, even after losing Roy Oswalt to free agency. Vance Worley, Joe Blanton and the newly-extended Kyle Kendrick round out a rotation that includes three of the sport’s elite arms, so starting pitching depth likely ranked relatively low on the team’s offseason to-do list. Amaro added Joel Pineiro and Dave Bush on sensible minor league deals that provide the club with some options just in case.

Hamels and Shane Victorino are poised to hit free agency after the 2012 season, so it won’t be a surprise if Amaro looks to lock one or both players up within the next month or so. Retaining Hamels will require a nine-figure commitment, but the expense would be justifiable for a team that spends, draws and wins like a superpower. Victorino sounds willing to consider a discount to remain in Philadelphia, and it would be wise for the Phillies to take advantage of their status as a desirable destination for elite players and strike a deal if a discount's actually within reach.

The National League East is tougher than ever now that the Marlins are spending big and the Nationals have deepened their rotation. Meanwhile, the Phillies are a little older, a little more banged up and, let's face it, far less intimidating on offense than they once were. Don’t let it fool you. The Phillies’ elite run prevention should send them to a sixth consecutive postseason berth in 2012 and no one will want to face this team’s pitching staff in October.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles focused on adding depth to their pitching staff in their first offseason under Dan Duquette.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Yeizer Marrugo, Nick Johnson, Casey Fossum, Pat Neshek, Ronny Paulino, Oscar Villarreal, Armando Galarraga, Willie Eyre.

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Stuck alongside three of the league’s dominant teams and another one on the rise, the Orioles sought new leadership this offseason when longtime executive Andy MacPhail stepped down. After an extensive and presumably frustrating GM search, the Orioles settled on a familiar name and hired Dan Duquette as executive VP of baseball operations. 

Though it had been a long while since Duquette worked in an MLB front office, the years he spent building the Expos and Red Sox appear to have intrigued owner Peter Angelos. The Orioles initially favored other candidates for the position, but ultimately hired Duquette, whose history of accumulating young talent no doubt appealed to ownership.

Duquette’s primary short-term goal appears to have been adding depth to the rotation, an area of serious concern for last year’s team. Baltimore finished last in MLB in rotation ERA (5.39), innings (881) and quality starts (60) last year so improving the starting corps was a must, even for a club not expected to contend.

The Orioles spent aggressively on the international market in an effort to revamp their pitching staff. Japanese left-hander Tsuyoshi Wada and Taiwanese left-hander Wei-Ying Chen join a new-look pitching staff that no longer features Jeremy Guthrie. Duquette sent the veteran right-hander to Colorado for reliever Matt Lindstrom and another rotation candidate, Jason Hammel. Lindstrom and Hammel offer long-term flexibility — both are under team control through 2013 — and will combine to earn roughly the same amount as Guthrie this year. The Orioles were not going to get an elite prospect for Guthrie, but the arms they obtained will prove useful and there's a chance Hammel will out-perform Guthrie this year.

Manager Buck Showalter faces lots of decisions this spring, as newcomers Wada, Chen, Hammel, Eveland and Galarraga compete alongside familiar faces such as Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter and Chris Tillman. At the very least, the Orioles will have options, a necessity for a club that has few pitchers with track records of health or success. Still, the group currently seems to consist of middle or back-of-the-rotation arms. Credit the Orioles for obtaining some much-needed depth, but some of their homegrown pitchers will have to develop for this team to take its next step toward contention.

The bullpen also struggled in 2011, though it’s hard to separate the group’s ugly stats from the fact that they pitched an MLB-leading 565 2/3 innings of relief in support of a weak rotation. Duquette also added a number of relievers in recent months, including Lindstrom, Darren O'Day, Luis Ayala, Pat Neshek and Armando Galarraga. 

The Orioles signed players from Japan, Taiwan and, in one potentially historic instance, New Zealand. But the club violated international etiquette by agreeing to terms with 17-year-old Korean Seong-Min Kim. MLB will void the deal, which created unnecessary tension between the Orioles, MLB, the Korea Baseball Organization and Korea Baseball Association. The Orioles apologized publicly after being banned from scouting KBO games.

The club non-tendered Luke Scott, an understandable move given his shoulder issues and the substantial contract he would have obtained via the arbitration process. The switch-hitting Wilson Betemit slots in as the club's new DH, where he'll provide some power for the next two seasons. I didn’t expect Betemit to obtain a two-year deal, but his $3.25MM guarantee was hardly excessive from the team's perspective.

Teams continued calling about Adam Jones, but Duquette’s asking price remained high and possible suitors such as the Braves and Nationals don’t appear to have come close to striking a deal. Jones, an extension candidate, is on track for free agency two seasons from now, so it’s time for the Orioles to determine whether he’s more valuable as a trade chip or a long-term fixture in center field. Matt Wieters isn’t yet eligible for arbitration, but it's worth exploring an extension with the Scott Boras client in case he’s open to a long-term deal.

Despite the additions to the pitching staff, the Orioles are likely headed for a 60-75 win season unless multiple young Major Leaguers make substantial strides. Elite prospects Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy will resume their progression through the minor leagues, and with continued development from Major Leaguers such as Wieters and Matusz more hope may exist in Baltimore a year from now. There's just not much to dream on yet.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves took their offseason inactivity to a new level this winter.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

The Braves made the first trade of the offseason, shipping Lowe to the Indians in the name of saving $5MM.  Facing a relatively large arbitration tab, GM Frank Wren had limited flexibility even after that salary dump and a payroll increase.  He entertained trade offers for veterans Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado, but ultimately held onto both players.

Wilson

There was a case for offering Gonzalez arbitration, but perhaps the Braves didn't feel a possible supplemental draft pick was worth risking a potential $4MM salary for a player they no longer wanted as their everyday shortstop.  Gonzalez signed with the Brewers, and Wren chose Wilson (pictured) as his "traditional backup shortstop" behind rookie Tyler Pastornicky.  As Bill Ballew of Baseball America points out, Wren has had success aggressively using rookies as regulars before with Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward.  Pastornicky is not that level of prospect, though, and I wonder if a bid for Marco Scutaro or Jamey Carroll would have offered more security than Wilson (who, incidentally, will start the season on the DL).

The league's best bullpen included 316 innings from Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, Eric O'Flaherty, and Cristhian Martinez in 2011, and in October Wren cited Martinez, Anthony Varvaro, and Kris Medlen as reasons bullpen depth was not a concern.  The Braves lost veterans Linebrink and Sherrill to free agency, after the duo provided 90 1/3 innings of 3.39 ball.  A lot of teams would have spent a few million dollars to replace them, but I agree that the Braves still have plenty of bullpen depth.

The majority of the Braves' offseason MLBTR archives involved Prado and Jurrjens trade rumors.  Reportedly, the asking price was huge: highly-regarded Rockies third base prospect Nolan Arenado in a deal involving Prado, and a Zack Greinke-like deal for Jurrjens.  If good health allows Prado to return to his 2008-10 offensive levels, keeping him rather than signing Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer, or Cody Ross was the right move.  The Braves poked around on trade targets Seth Smith and Adam Jones but couldn't find common ground.  I think the Jones discussions solidified that Jurrjens' stock is down as well, as last year's misleading 2.96 ERA can't disguise the fact that he started only 43 games over 2010-11.

The Braves were obviously down on Lowe after his late-season struggles.  They felt they needed the $5MM more than Lowe's innings, even though Tim Hudson is the lone remaining starter who exceeded 152 MLB innings in 2011.  Now we know Hudson will miss the first month of the season.  Somehow, the Braves' rotation still looks above-average, with Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Jurrjens, and some combination of Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, and Julio Teheran.  However, I don't see a workhorse in that group, so the bullpen may be taxed again as the season wears on.

Wren has said this team deserves another chance, despite last year's collapse down the stretch.  They've still got several of the game's best young pitchers and some All-Star caliber bats, so the team should be in contention even if they're not the preseason NL East favorite.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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