The Red Sox may have interest in Cliff Lee, but he's far from the only free agent they'll consider. Here are the details on which teams are interested in Boston's free agents and which players the Red Sox might like to sign:
- Not surprisingly, the Red Sox have also checked in on Carl Crawford, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
- Six teams including the Red Sox have inquired about Victor Martinez, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- The Red Sox seem "firmly convinced" that Jarrod Saltalamacchia can be their regular catcher, according to MLB.com's Peter Gammons. Gammons suggests the Red Sox could bring Jason Varitek back to hit against left-handers and mentor Saltalamacchia if Martinez signs elsewhere.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says Boston’s top priority should be keeping Adrian Beltre, since they have the money and the need for the third baseman.
I would love to believe signing Beltre long term is a good idea, but i just cant
why not you know you will get at least one more all star year out of him, when the contract i up….
Beltre will most likely continue to do well in Fenway, but their are doubts Beltre will repeat last years numbers and he may not live up to the dollars he may/will get from a team
I will say this, the only thing that is 100% consistant about Beltre is his defense. As a gm yes there a price you pay for gold glove D at the hot corner. And Beltre will get at least that. Even in his down/bad offensive years he is worth at base probably 4-5 mill per season. Then add in hopefully a .280+ avg…a .320+ obp..and a .400+ slg…then you can add something like 2-4 mill on top….add in incentives for hitting 25+ hrs and he could easily justify a 10 per salary…but he is on the wrong side of 30 playing a position that is not kind to aging players who have had injuries in the past. Would I take flier out on him if i Were a teamgs GM that was not sure about my 3rd base situation yes, would I go over 4 years…probably not…I think a reasonable deal is 3-4 yrs at 40/50 mill…with incentives and options after…I would try something as crazy as a 1 year deal worth 10-12 mill with a team option for a 2nd and 3rd year and a mutual option for the 4th worst like 13-14 and a player option worth 13 for a 5th year…that way he consistently is a contract year….I would love to see teams use those types of deals more often that way the team is not stuck with a horrible contract..ala the cubs and soriano
Even if he’s not the best third baseman ever, his numbers have been consistently good. While he’s on the wrong side of 30, there’s definitely a few more good years in him.
Even if he’s not the best third baseman ever, his numbers have been consistently good. While he’s on the wrong side of 30, there’s definitely a few more good years in him.
The rumors of Lowrie filling in at third for the time being just doesn’t sit well with me. Beltre is definitely top priority IMO.
Bill James 2011 projection for Jed Lowrie: .270 / .361 / .467. 17 HRs. 75 RBI .363 wOBA
Bill James 2011 projection for Adrian Beltre: .277 / .335 / .477. 24HR 77RBI. .352 wOBA
Does that help Lowrie sit a little better with you? Just a little?
those are projections.
Just curious, what was Bill James’ 2010 projection for Beltre? Because something tells me it was probably a little off…
Yeah he did well this season, but can he continue to play like that? Can he be healthy? Can he perform in the clutch (See post-season stats)?
Jed Lowrie : Sox starting third baseman :: Bubba Crosby : Yankees starting center-fielder
I think he’ll be the starter at short, but they’ll have an Adrian at one of the corners.
The opportunity cost of resigning Beltre is a 1st round pick and a sandwich round pick, in addition to probably 4 years $60M. The cost for AGon would probably be 3 top prospects and a B prospect, call it 2 1st rounders a sandwich round and a 3rd rounder, plus about 8 years $180M.
If I’m Theo, I go with Beltre.
Of course, they could look to a 1 year stop gap player at 1st or 3rd, call 2011 another bridge year and wait for Rizzo to step up in 2012. Rizzo would be included in any AGon deal.
I’d go with Beltre too. And I’m going to throw out any stats right now and just say because I love the guy. I have better reasons too, but mostly I just like him on the team. 😛 And I feel that A-Gon will shake a lot of things up, frustrate anyone who’s been watching our farm system (cause we’re gonna lose a couple blue-chip guys for sure), and jumble the infield up yet again, making Youkilis switch over to third as he gets closer to the years where he’d probably prefer first anyway. Keeping Beltre gives us two proven corner infielders. Not as good a combo as A-Gon and Youk, sure, but its still very high quality. And we can still bolster the outfield, who knows, maybe even go deep in Lee bidding. I love A-Gon, but I’d be really happy with a Beltre/Youk combo too.
Also, signing Beltre let’s them hold onto Rizzo, who could end up DH’ing as of 2012, while giving Youk a break at first and allowing youk to shift to 3rd to give Beltre a rest. Imagine the Red Sox with a DH who could field and give them an even stronger bench!
Why couldn’t Rizzo DH in 2012 and have Youk and Gonzalez? The Padres wouldn’t ask for Rizzo with Blanks.
Sure they would. Blanks was terrible last year and now will be probably be delayed by the TJ surgery he had in July.
Wow dude, rarely will I agree so much with a Red Sox fan, but you’re dead on right in my opinion. Then they go after Werth or Crawford. Beltre for 4 years and $60mm and Werth for 4 or 5 at $80mm or $90mm solves a lot of things for them and considering they’ve already picked up Ortiz all that would leave Epstein to do is focus on the bullpen, maybe pick up an extra arm, but the Lee thing is just fluff. No way they can put that together and address the other major holes they’ll have. Youk stays are first and Drew is done after next season along with Cameron so they’ll need someone solid like Werth or Crawford.
I tend to be one of the more rational Red Sox fans.
Werth would look good in LF next season in Fenway, with Kalish taking over in RF after Drew leaves.
The Red Sox still need to figure out the catching situation for next season. No way they make a big push for Lee.
Yeah, catching has been the white whale for them. John Buck would look right in the line up too, but he’s going to command what $10mm or $12mm for 2 years. Beltre $15mm, Werth $18mm and Buck $6mm = $39mm. It’s possible and those are dollars the Sox have and would leave a little extra for some bullpen help. Some big hitters and if Ortiz performs, they competitively speaking, that’s a tight line up. Scutaro lead off (maybe) Youk #2, Beltre #3, Werth #4 Ortiz #5, Buck #6 and so on..
Although to be honest It think a better idea would be salty starting when it comes to buck. Martinez is the only catcher of the market i would sit salty for.
Any yeah I agree, 99% of baseball should pretty much write off any idea of Cliff Lee on the Red Sox. It just doesn’t make sense anyway you look at it. Only way is if they ship out Dice K and Beckett via trade. Obviously Lester stays. Buchholz is too cheap and doesn’t solve anything financially if they move him. Lackey forget it..is there to stay.
If the rumors are true that during the ALCS some Yankee fans in New York spit at and on Cliff Lee’s wife while she was in the stands during Lee’s pitching, guess what? Lee doesn’t go to the MFYs. Ergo, we have a shot at him. Keep Beckett, jettison Lackey. Also go after Zack Greinke via trade (include Dice-K in that trade). What a rotation! Even better than what we thought we had this past season. Hey! I can dream, can’t I? Lol.
I tend to be one of the “cheaper/farm system 1st” option ones and would think that just forgetting all about Gonzalez/Pujols/fielder until after the season and then getting one as a future DH/1B, while signing either (in this order) Crawford, Werth, or LaRoche as a FA. LaRoche on a 1 year deal if that is the choice of course, but the preferred choice would be to find the bat for the OF by trade, like Willingham, maybe even Ross if the Giants think that what they saw from late August on was not what they will be seeing from now on.
Main thing is to not give up the top prospects for a Fielder/Gonzalez like the Kelly’s, Iglesias, Rizzo, Doubrants when both are set to walk after the season anyway. let somebody else rent them for the season, then sign one as a FA, there is NOBODY else out there with a DH/1B opening in the LT future able to match Boston for either one they choose to sign anyway, so it’s just crazy to give anyone up that figures into the club’s long term plans for any of the BIG 3 FA’s and THEN fork over 20M plus per season.
It should be noted though that the Red Sox are not guaranteed a 1st round pick for Beltre. The Angels are probably the favorite to sign him after the Red Sox….and the Angels 1st round pick is protected. The Sox would get a sandwich pick and only a 2nd rounder for him…..and that’s assuming the Angels don’t also pull off a Crawford signing. Crawford being a higher Type A would net the Rays a 2nd round pick and the Red Sox would be stuck with a 3rd round pick…..ala what happend to the Blue Jays when they lost Burnett 2 years ago.
I doubt the Angels land both Crawford and Beltre (though it’s very possible)…..but has to be on the minds of the Red Sox.
Certainly a valid point, but as I was taking a pro-Beltre stance I chose to portray the highest possible opportunity cost of signing Beltre to further strengthen my argument.
They could potentially be losing less than a 1st and sandwich round pick if they sign him, but even if it were a 1st and sandwich pick, it would still be worth it.
Certainly a valid point, but as I was taking a pro-Beltre stance I chose to portray the highest possible opportunity cost of signing Beltre to further strengthen my argument.
They could potentially be losing less than a 1st and sandwich round pick if they sign him, but even if it were a 1st and sandwich pick, it would still be worth it.
It’s gonna take at least 2 years/$30MM to sign Beltre long-term. Maybe 3 years/$40MM if he wants that extra year. Like everybody else wonders, is he one of those players that only turns it on when a contract is on the line? If he is, he isn’t worth it, if he isn’t, he obviously fits well in Boston and they should stick with him, at a fair price. And this is a Yankee fan talking.
If Beltre only gets 3/40m then he’ll be an absolute steal.
This.
This.
Just like when he turned it on in 2009 at the end of his contract?
I really hope Salty becomes the next Varitek.
he’ll probably never be able to field as well as ‘Tek…
Wow. That’s about the biggest insult you can give a Catcher.
As a catcher or as an organizational face? He probably won’t ever have the reputation and the name that Varitek had, especially in his prime years. People tend to think of him as home grown (he was acquired from the Pirates in the minors), as a team leader, all C’s aside. Salty probably won’t ever live up to him in that sense.
As a catcher, who knows? Tek was a decent catcher and had decent numbers. Was he the best catcher ever on the face of the earth? Probably not. But he was good. And Salty could probably be as good as him. It’s really too broad a suggestion to say either way.
At least 2 years/$30MM to sign Beltre long-term? Try it is going to take at least 4 years and like $55-60MM to sign Beltre long-term. Remember Scott Boras is his agent.
also remember that 2 years isn’t a long-term contract.
Boras will probably start by asking for ARod money. After all, Beltre had a better year.
A better year than the 50+ HR and 140+ RBI A-Rod had in his walk year? Or did you make an attempt at a lame joke and just fail on accuracy?
Better year than A-Rod had this year. Boras is absolutely the kind of guy who would take A-Rod’s bloated contract, say “this guy was even better!” and insist he deserves the same money.
I wouldn’t even be surprised to see something like 4 years $60-70MM. It is a very thin free agent class and him and Boras know it for sure.
I was the first to make notice the Red Sox interest in Cliff Lee, i think its just to drive up his price but watch them actually sign him and trade Matsuzaka!!! their rotation is almost all right handers, good mix of lefties and righties with Cliff Lee
Red Sox won’t outbid the Yanks though, so a moot point if they deal Dice K.
contribute dude dont be a loser this is about boston only tool
Red Sox have way too much money wrapped up in pitching right now to go after the ~120M that Lee is going to cost.
he isn’t going to cost $120 million a year. The Red Sox could afford to sign him if they wanted to. So could the Angels. So could the Rangers. So could the Nationals.
And trust me, Beltre will sign with the Red Sox, he was tailor made for Fenway, only other place he could possible go and have success is Texas and Detroit and he isnt going to either of those places, as long as the years are in the 10 million range Beltre will be with Boston for the next 3-4 years.
I disagree. Guy had success in LA. He would be a perfect fit in Anaheim too.
He was okay there. However, his last year was just crazy good.
Everyone said the same thing about Damon and Yankee Stadium last year.
He will go where the money is, whether it is in Boston or somewhere else.
cept the Yankees were the one that moved on from Damon.
And I personally think it came back to bite them.
Wrong. Damon wanted too much money (~13M) for a player at his age. While his numbers were great, and Yankees fans were sad to see him go, there were better bargains and younger players to be acquired.
And I disagree. With Kevin Long’s improvements to Granderson’s swing and the youth in the outfield, it’s perfectly fine to say goodbye to Damon. Of course I, as a Yankees fan, will miss him a lot. But I understand why we declined him, and I’m all right with things as they are.
Damon left an extra year and six million on the table so I’m going to say it hurt him more…An effective DH wasn’t going to pitch in the rotation or out of the bullpen against Texas…
Yeah but the Yankees had better people for their outfield and Damon is a crappy defender, aside from the most errors he has had in years, Beltre is a gold glove defender at third base and the Sox dont have an option at third unless they make a trade and shift Youk to third, but IMO, they shouldnt move Youk, he is Gold Glove at first and can hit 30 bombs a year, whats 10 more home runs going to cost you? about 20 million a year (in case you hadnt caught this, this is an AGon assessment)
Have you seen who wins gold gloves? They are a joke.
I agree about the awards, but saying Gold glove defense isnt a joke.
Ok, but if that is the case, you would also have “Gold glove defense” at both corners if Youk was at 3rd and AGon was at 1st plus you would have a younger, more proven hitter who has put up huge numbers despite playing in Petco. I realize that the pitching MIGHT be a bit better in the AL East but I think it would be scary to see what kind of numbers AGon would put up in Fenway, The Trop, Camden Yards, and the new Yankee Stadium launching pad.
Along the Matsuzaka to Seattle rumor here, what does Seattle have to get Dice K?
Some of Ichiro’s extra wasabi sauce?
It depends on their farm system prospects. My guesstimate is that Daisuke Matsuzaka is worth about two prospects, or one good positional player,His numbers are so-so, but his value is that he is starting pitcher. The Sox also have to eat a bit of his contract to get another team interested
I see a Daisuke trade more like trading one semi okay with a big contract for another big contract like Zito and the Giants, but Daisuke has better numbers than Zito and less of an onerous contract. I just see a team have to be enthused of Daisuke’s potential than feeling they are doing Boston a favor by doing the trade, or exchanging so-so players.
Matsuzaka’s contract isnt that bad, he is owed like what 10 million a season? how much did they pay Silva? i agree two prospects and I bet Dice K does great in Seattle if this even happens.
Dice-K could probably be gotten for just prospects if the Sox are serious about getting Lee (which I doubt).
Pretty sure the Red Sox would give Dice-K away if the taker would take the contract.
Disagree…they paid Lowell 12.5m this year. They’ll have no problem paying Dice-K 10m.
Dice-K had a bad year and still put up a 2.5 WAR worth about 10mil (what he will be owed the next 2 years). His contract is hardly anything the Sox or any other team would be worried about if they wanted to acquire him. It is about market value for a 3-4 starter. And if an NL team took him he would probably pitch better then he has in the AL East
Trust me, the Red Sox are serious, they want a left hander and want to get rid of a right hander, and Dice K is on the block.
They don’t even have to replace Matsuzaka if they move him. they already have Wakefield and Doubrant as #5 starters, a lot better than about anybody else can muster (excepting the Rays in the AL) and they can always make a play for a injury risk/rehab guy like they did every season before, except 2010 like Deuscherer, or even Hardin as a hedge against an injury.
Only reason to even bid on lee is to jack up the ultimate cost of acquisition for lee to NYY and they they should do until the very end.
wow, i said the Red Sox want a LEFT hander, Wakefield, as much as i like him as a pitcher is shaky now, and um oh yeah RIGHT handed, Doubront is left handed but be serious, he is just now getting stretched out as a starter and is a few years away, Cliff Lee is the lefty they want
Cliff Lee is a waste of 120M++ towards the one area of the team that does NOT need fixing and Doubrant was ‘stretched out” as a starter for the entirety of his 6 ML career, up until the last 3 months of the 2010 season, so no idea what you meant by that.
Wakefield is good enough to do what he has been for the last 17 years.. Eat innings, have a decent gem thrown in and be a #5 starter on most any team and let Doubrant be the swing man if not. Why go out and waste 120M++ on the ONE POSITION on the team that does NOT need fixing? Some of the people here that claim to be Boston fans act like money grows on trees.
Doubront has pitched his whole career up until the last month or so of this season as a starter, so to say he is just now getting stretched out as a starter is incorrect. He also came up and pitched well enough, as a starter, to show that he could handle being the #5 right now, and has since added a cutter (or was it a change-up?) and improved his curve. He is supposed to have the upside of a good #2 so to say he is a few years away from being a #5 is also pretty incorrect.
They don’t even have to replace Matsuzaka if they move him. they already have Wakefield and Doubrant as #5 starters, a lot better than about anybody else can muster (excepting the Rays in the AL) and they can always make a play for a injury risk/rehab guy like they did every season before, except 2010 like Deuscherer, or even Hardin as a hedge against an injury.
Only reason to even bid on lee is to jack up the ultimate cost of acquisition for lee to NYY and they they should do until the very end.
Doesn’t Dice K have a no trade clause?
The Sox already have one of the game’s best left handers and play in a park that is historically tough on lefties. I keep seeing people claim that the Sox need another lefty and the only rationale I’ve seen is to face the Yankees lineup, which would make said pitcher useful for all of maybe five or six games a season.
All the Sox NEED from a rotation standpoint is for Beckett to bounce back a bit and Lackey to maintain his second half numbers. If those two things happen and they’re actually able to keep their lineup on the field, they’ll be fine.
When Gammons states that the Sox Front Office is “firmly convinced” about Saltalamacchia, then that is a big sign the Sox are not really interested in pursuing Martinez
It’s a bad idea to sign Victor Martinez to anything more than a 3-year, $40M contract.
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, it’s a better idea than letting Saltalamacchia catch full time.
I totally agree.
I can’t see the RED SOX keeping Beltre. He’s too much of a question mark, at least in my mind. Next season Adrian Gonzalez IS a free agent and he’s a sure thing. Consistant even when NOT in a contract year.
Signing Beltre means NO Gonzalez and spending pretty close to the same $$$ per year.
It’s a no brainer. Get a stop gap 1B until next season or resign V-Mart as the 1B and move him to DH/1B/C next season after Ortiz &Varitek are gone and Salty has some time under his belt.
No matter what Beltre is too big a risk for the time & $$$ they’ll have to invest. IMO.
Adrian Gonzalez is more a sure thing than Beltre…..but he’s not even close to a sure bet of signing with the Red Sox. If I was a Red Sox fan, I’d be a bit afraid of putting too much hope in signing A-Gon next season. Sox thought they had Teix signed for a while, then the Yanks swooped in. A-Gon likely won’t be a target of the Yanks, but plenty of teams should be in on him, not just the Red Sox.
I do agree though….Beltre is a big question mark on a long-term deal. You just don’t know what you’ll get.
If the Yankees are out of the running, there aren’t many teams that could outspend the Red Sox. The Red Sox will be shedding even more payroll next off season. Drew, Papelbon and Ortiz, that’s about 37M right there.
The Sox have 74 million committed to 2012. Accounting for a arbitration raises (Which could get pricey, Buchholz hits his first year and Ellsbury his second), they’ll likely have somewhere in the neighborhood of 90 million committed if they don’t sign anyone this offseason.
Now, assuming they snag Werth or Crawford, that’s another $16-18 million, putting them at still under $120 million.
Kalish will likely be developed by then, meaning they’ll have an outfield (Presumably) or Ellsbury and Kalish with Kalish filling either right or left depending on if they get Crawford or Werth. That leaves them about $50 million to play with before the luxury tax threshold to fill catcher, shortstop and first/third base. Iglesias is presumed to be ready by then too and with the amount of pitchers in the minors, filling out the bullpen shouldn’t be too much trouble.
The Sox easily have enough room in their budget to blow anyone but the Yankees out of the water on a Gonzalez deal and the Yankees won’t be going after him.
i agree you keep the farm beltre has been not as good during his non contract years.theres plenty who can contribute on a 1yr deal to boost there value plus Adrain can be afforded once drew and ortiz contract ends with kalish taking over possibly rizzo at DH.only thing i see they need to address is trying to trade or extend papelbon cuz who knows if he is coming back plus with bard proven to be valuable trading him would allow them more money for a guy like dunn for DH and a few bullpen arms.but stay away from lee he wont be an ace for years at his age.but try to keep victor martinez much more proven and a better player overall than salty
Paplebon will be on the Red Sox this season, he will not be traded. The bullpen is an area of concern for the Sox, and I have trouble finding a team willing to give up 2 top prospects plus a long term deal for Paps.
That being said, 2011 will be his last year on the team, and the Sox will be happy to take to 2 draft picks when he leaves.
I’ve gotta agree with this for the most part. Martinez and Youkilis are both very versatile. Between the two of them, you can cover two positions out of C/1B/3B/DH if need be. Signing Beltre pretty much commits the Red Sox to a Youkilis/Beltre corner infield for the next 3 to 4 (hopefully not 5) years.
That means any new acquisitions would need to come in the outfield, shortstop, or at catcher. Finding a catcher that can put up big numbers in this era for a long period of time is not worth the investment. A catcher’s defensive play has become more important, and there just aren’t enough elite hitting, solid defensive catchers out there right now. The same pretty much applies for shortstop as well. The days of A-Rod, Nomar, or Jeter “Whose the best shortstop?” debates are long gone.
Assuming the Red Sox go after an outfielder (Werth probably being more likely), the Red Sox would pretty much be set in the outfield with Werth/Crawford, Ellsbury and Cameron/Kalish going forward.
Shorstop will likely be occupied by Scutaro, Lowrie, or Iglesias for the foreseeable future, so there’s no versatility there either.
At the end of the day, it really comes down to the degree to which the Red Sox want to be versatile in setting up their lineup. Letting Beltre go gives the Red Sox the option to sign or trade for an elite corner infielder in the next year plus. Martinez could make the transition from Catcher to DH as time wears on, and a stop gap corner guy would allow for an opening at a corner spot. The possibility of a trade would likely free up the outfield as it would probably cost Kalish or Ellsbury to land a big bat. That’s not to say that versatility is paramount, but the Red Sox under Theo Epstien haven’t been a team to commit itself to a lineup for an extended period of time. For those reasons, along with what you’ve said, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to pursue Beltre.
Youk could move to DH after the season if the let Ortiz walk and get A-Gonz. And I’m not sold on Youk being able to play 3B for an entire season.
My only concern with moving Youk to DH is that you would destroy his value as a solid defensive first basemen in the process. Granted, his elite OPS alone is probably worth his salary. It seems silly to take his glove off of the field entirely.
Another wild card in all of this is Ortiz. I’m glad you brought him up. What if he plays well again in 2011? Does he find an offer somewhere else? Or is he a candidate to get paid 8 million a season on a year to year basis to put up 30hr/100rbi? People have been betting against this guy since early in 2009, but he’s proven his doubters wrong to this point.
Gammons’ quote on Salty is sort of interesting, considering the fact that most people are “firmly convinced” that Salty can’t stay healthy and has a .701 OPS in 900 big league plate appearances.
can people stop saying beltre only hits on contract seasons he went and played in seattle for 4 years who hits there not named ichiro?
Thank you.
Beltre has a career 162 game average of 25 homers and a .791 OPS.
He averaged 24 homers and a .773 OPS in his four healthy years in Seattle. Not too shabby, especially considering that Safeco is a pitcher’s park.
Check out his road splits for more.
Back out his contract years and what are his numbers?
Point taken, but people act as if Beltre is garbage when he’s not playing for a contract.
The fact of the matter is that it sure looks like he’s pumps up his offensive game when there’s money at stake. But even in non-contract years, he’s still a 20-25 home run hitter and a once in a generation defensive talent. At third base to boot.
The thing I would worry about at this point is his age. He’ll be 32 a week after Opening Day and since MLB started cracking down on steroids, more and more players are entering their decline years much earlier.
All of that said, if I had no other options at third base, I’d feel comfortable giving Beltre three years guaranteed at $13-14M per, plus an option year for another $14. Beltre and Boras will probably turn their noses up at a deal like that at first, but I expect they’ll settle for something like that in the end.
Dumb argument “flickadave”. If you take out his contract years you also take out his 2009 contract year where he hit 8 Hr’s 44 rbis and hit .265/.304/.379. Oh the fact that he had his worst season ever in a contract year doesn’t fit your argument? Too bad. The guy had 2 great contract years and 1 terrible contract year. 2 out of 3 hardly makes a decent sample. On the Red Sox Beltre will roll out of bed and provide great defense and hit 25 HRs with 280/340/480 with ease…and that’s being conservative.
Hardly a dumb arguement. 162 game averages are essential stats per game played, compiled to remove time on the DL and scheduled days off. Beltre spent significant chunks of 2009 on the DL, meaning that his stats per 162 games are not affected nearly as much.
Are you JD Drew?
Are you from Canada?
Sorry, I just thought we were asking dumb questions
Some people just don’t understand what “162 game season” means I guess. Sorry to have made such a “dumb” argument but what were those numbers with the contract years taken out again? I’m glad you can say that Beltre will put up those numbers “conservatively” even tho his past stats don’t back you up.
Actually they are right around his career averages with slight increases due to playing in a hitters park…but very slight increases. Again, he had 2 great contract years and one terrible. So how is that a trend again? If you average his 2009 and 2010 contract years together, you get his career average. So again, dumb comment.
Maybe you should figure into the 2009 contract year numbers the fact that he spent significant time on the DL due to getting his nads crushed. That might tend to affect a guy’s season’s production. Listen, all you have to do is look at his career averages. If you think that he is going to continue to hit 46 points higher than his career average, fine. I don’t. If you think that he is going to slug 91 points higher than his career average, fine. I don’t. If you think that Beltre will drive in 45 more runs a season than his career average, fine. I don’t.
The Red Sox are almost done with J.D. Drew’s contract. I just think that it would be kind of stupid to commit to 4 years @ $12 million+ per season because a guy came to Boston and had ONE good season.
His numbers at home during his tenure with Seattle were bad. His 4 year OPS totals at home were .646, .703, .752, .778, and .694. On the road during those 4 years his OPA were .717, .862, .850, .805, and .736. Pretty obvious Safeco had a big impact when it came to OPS.
And his batting average really suffered at SafeCO. In 2009 he hit .029 points higher on the road, .052 higher in 08, .019 higher in 07, .032 higher in 06, and 05 was the only year he had a higher average at home but he did hit an abysmal .248 on the road. There are also similar patterns with wOBA
Russell Branyon?
Not to mention 2009 was a contract season. And the worst of his career.
Another way to look at it is he had the two best seasons of his career 1) right before going to Safeco and 2) right after leaving Safeco.
I think it would be a major surprise if Salty could be the Red Sox starting catcher. Gammons must not have done his research about Salty’s tenure with the Rangers or he might change his mind.
Where did Gammons say it was his opinion that Salty could start? He said the Sox felt confident that he could start. Just the Sox giving a general statement showing trust in a guy and Gammons reporting it. Not sure how you can rag on Gammons for it.
Gammons also said that the brewers could trade Ryan Braun.
And they can.
Had Gammons said the Brewers could trade Ryan Ludwick, you’d have a better argument. But he didn’t say that…
Okay, yet again every other post about Beltre complains he only hits in contract years, so I’m going to complain yet again.
His contract years, when he has hit the best, have also been the years he’s played in a hitters park. Why is it immediately more likely to many of you that he just played for the contract, rather than maybe he relished having a park that worked for his swing? His non-contract years were spent in SEATTLE guys. Seattle. Which is not only a pitchers park, but is also especially bad for a right-handed power hitter. He thrived in LA and Boston, both hitters parks.
Maybe I’m just a glass half-full kinda guy, but it seems pretty simple to me. Even if some of the improved play was affected by the contract year, its clear that a LOT of the influence came from the parks he played in. I don’t need to rattle off stats, you’ve all heard them.
I’m not sure about a Beltre signing just because it would effectively take the Sox out of the running for A.Gonz, Fielder and Pujols (should be become a FA). With those 2 (potentially 3) ELITE 1st basemen on the market for 2012 – plus the dollars it would cost to sign Beltre – I wonder if the Sox would rather let Lowrie play 3rd for a year and then sign one of the big boppers.
Couldn’t Fielder/A-Gonz/Youk be moved to DH if they really wanted him? I personally don’t want to see Youk at 3rd. It would be a waste of a very good 1B at a position he hasn’t played regularly in a long time, and probably won’t be league average at, at this stage of his career.
Fielder or A.Gonz wouldn’t be getting paid 20mil+ to be DHs and Youk is far too good a fielder. I personally would prefer not to have Youk move to 3rd also, but if that’s the cost of getting one of the big 1B then I’m cool with it..as Youk has said he would be.
But if you got A-Gonz for that much he could take up 1st (his UZR was better then Youk’s this year) and move Youk to DH where he will be owed 13mil max until 2013 which is about what the Sox will be paying Ortiz this season to DH. But in this situation it really doesn’t matter. Either you have an underpaid 1B and overpaid DH or switch where each plays and you get slight overpay at each position. Not a big deal to me to sure up your corner spots and DH for the next few years and gain a legitimate middle of the order bat.
Why would it take them out of the running? They could deal Beltre if they signed one of the star first basemen, or put Youk or them at DH. It could definitely work. The Red Sox were gonna deal Lowell when they tried to sign Tex.
I think dealing Beltre or Youkilis would be the only options in such a scenario..
So as long as Beltre isn’t a disaster in 2011 the Red Sox can deal him next offseason if they can aquire a stud 1B. Seems easy enough for me. Sure Beltre could struggle, but if you are gonna sign him you don’t expect him to struggle. I think its a no brainer.
And if you sign him, you’re also expecting to keep him for the term of the contract. Boston might not be so willing to just turn around and trade him off. If they sign him, they’ll be expecting to have him on the team for a while.
And if you sign him, you’re also expecting to keep him for the term of the contract. Boston might not be so willing to just turn around and trade him off. If they sign him, they’ll be expecting to have him on the team for a while.
I wonder what kind of deal you think Beltre is going to sign that the Red Sox will just be able to so easily deal him to someone who will be willing and able to pick up his contract without the Red Sox having to pay a significant portion.
LOL Pujols in Boston. That’s almost as crazy as Pujols on the Pirates.
Well, Pujols on ANY team other than the Cardinals is a definite longshot but if Albert WERE to become a FA..what team would have a better shot at landing him (along with the means) than Boston?
Aren’t the Red Sox interested more in Adrian Gonzalez? He’s much more available, younger, and not quite as expensive.
Aren’t the Red Sox interested more in Adrian Gonzalez? He’s much more available, younger, and not quite as expensive.
I think they said the same thing about Ruth going to the Yankees didn’t they?
Youk isn’t training for 3B because he is bored. Looks like they are going to move him across the diamond a year early. I believe they will be getting a 1 year stop gap 1B, and then going after one if the big 3 next off season.
To be entirely fair, this time last year Pedroia was training at shortstop.
They’re keeping their options open.
Beltre, Buck, Werth or Crawford(although I think he goes to the Angels), Downs should be the main targets. The Red Sox dont need Lee they will just try to drive up the price on him. That gives them a solid all around team. I also think the pitching will improve this year with the aid of Curt Young.
Wright is owed $45 million over the next two seasons. The Mets are in a tumble and Wrights heavily backloaded contract really jumps this season. Could a Matsuzaka, Lowrie plus an A and B prospect get the deal done…probably….is it worth it to the Sox, probably not. It wouldn’t cost much more to get Beltre for four years. Wright obviously has a higher upside and we would only be committed for two years. Hmmm
When a team makes a salary dump, they dont get two legitimate starters AND prospects.
Wright is owed 29 million over the next two season with a 16 mil club option for 13 so stop dreaming
With all the injuries this team had this year, they STILL would have made the playoffs if it weren’t for the BULLPEN!!!!!
Victor hit lefties very well, including Price and Sabathia. He gives you flexibility if Salty comes around he can play some 1st and DH…also, flexibility if Papi tanks….
so #1 sign Downs and Soriano
#2 resign Victor
#3 resign Beltre…at the very least you have stellar defense at the corners
If Drew, Cameron, Ells, and Kalish can’t create a solid outfield…well, that will be the easiest position to find help via trade (as opposed to catcher or 3b)
I don’t think Pujols will be available in a year, you really dont want Fielder, and I wouldnt put all my eggs in the basket of getting AGon
Scutaro
Pedrioa
Victor
Youk
Papi
Beltre
Drew
Cameron/Kalish
Ells
…that lineup should score enough runs for our starting 5 and bullpen to win 95-98 games
i want nothing to do with Crawford or Werth…I think both contracts will be regrettable at positions that are much easier to fill…
just one fans thoughts…
Okay, so outfield would be easier to trade for; like who? Just curious, cause it seems like signing one of the two FA outfielders would be easier on the farm, and the Sox have the cash to do it. Besides, if you think those guys are gonna have regrettable contracts, who do you think is a better bet? Cause Werth and Crawford are pretty damn good players, FYI.
so signing one of those guys along with beltre and v-mart means you have 11 players making 7 didgits on this team next year….i’m not all about being “yankees lite” I’d like to at least roll the dice and give Kalish a shot…
look what happened when we gave Pedroia some time in the bigs…remember when all you guys wanted us to “sign someone”
and all i was saying was that OF is easier to replace during the season than C or 3B ? It’s simply supply and demand…
who knows who may be available: Braun, Upton, Hart, McCutchen, Rasmus, Choo….
You can’t even make a what if list in those other positions….
I agree those two are good players now….but not worth the $ or risk long term
Being short sighted doesnt produce long term winning, FYI
I LOVE the way you think with the exception of #3. Why not do everything that you can to acquire AGon before the season starts? That way you have a gold glove caliber player at each corner but you’re much younger than if you sign Beltre.
The Red Sox have a lot of great prospects they could trade for AGon. Package Kelly, Rizzo and/or Anderson, and DiceK (with enough cash to cover his pay) and see what the Padres say. Of course the deal would be contingent on the Sox signing AGon to an extension. With AGon it gives you:
Ells
Pedroia
AGon
Youk
Papi
VMart
Drew
Lowrie (or Scutaro)
Kalish (or Cameron)
This way the Red Sox get younger and with the draft picks they would get for another team picking up Beltre they could restock their farm with players that would mature when they would need them more.
I don’t understand everyone wanting the Red Sox to sign Crawford or Werth either when the Sox already have talented players to plug into the outfield. Give Kalish a chance for crying out loud. For that matter, give Lowrie a shot at full time 3rd baseman with the numbers he put up in 2010.
Sox already said Kalish will start next season in AAA and he needs it. I doubt he becomes a regular until Drew leaves after this season (with exception of injury).
I LOVE the way you think with the exception of #3. Why not do everything that you can to acquire AGon before the season starts? That way you have a gold glove caliber player at each corner but you’re much younger than if you sign Beltre.
The Red Sox have a lot of great prospects they could trade for AGon. Package Kelly, Rizzo and/or Anderson, and DiceK (with enough cash to cover his pay) and see what the Padres say. Of course the deal would be contingent on the Sox signing AGon to an extension. With AGon it gives you:
Ells
Pedroia
AGon
Youk
Papi
VMart
Drew
Lowrie (or Scutaro)
Kalish (or Cameron)
This way the Red Sox get younger and with the draft picks they would get for another team picking up Beltre they could restock their farm with players that would mature when they would need them more.
I don’t understand everyone wanting the Red Sox to sign Crawford or Werth either when the Sox already have talented players to plug into the outfield. Give Kalish a chance for crying out loud. For that matter, give Lowrie a shot at full time 3rd baseman with the numbers he put up in 2010.
If you think Soriano will sign as anything besides a closer…you are crazy. I do hope they sign downs however. I think they made it rather clear that victor wont be coming back. Id like Buck as the catcher in that case. I think Crawfords contract would be safer than werth considering age and the amount of years they will want.
plus Matsuzaka is owed 10 million this season and Lowrie is owed around 2-3, thats 12 million times two is at about 22-26 million, not really money saving there for the Mets
plus Matsuzaka is owed 10 million this season and Lowrie is owed around 2-3, thats 12 million times two is at about 22-26 million, not really money saving there for the Mets
$45M minus $24M = $21M
Apparently you don’t know how saving money works.
I don’t know if Wright is worth it at this point, it would depend on how much the Sox FO values short term contracts. 1B and OF are easy to replace…maybe the Sox could consider this an addition for a long term extension.
Let you in on a little secret…the Mets aren’t trading David Wright anytime soon.Maybe next year.
$45M minus $24M = $21M
Apparently you don’t know how saving money works.
I don’t know if Wright is worth it at this point, it would depend on how much the Sox FO values short term contracts. 1B and OF are easy to replace…maybe the Sox could consider this an addition for a long term extension.
Raise your hand if you want to hear my opinion… wow, a room full of hands in their pockets.
Anyway:
-Sign Beltre long term because moving Youk off of first will be a mistake. Ultimately the plan should be try to sign one of Pujols (Hey! I can dream), Gonzalez, or Fielder in 2011 to alternate between first, third, and DH.
-Sign Buck. There’s some interesting catching prospects that are 1-2 years off in the minors and it’s not like the Sox are lacking in offense, we can spare the #8 hitting spot. If not buck, sign Tek. Let Martinez walk for the draft picks, he’ll be a 1B/DH soon.
-Let Crawford sign with the Angels. I don’t see how that contract isn’t an albatross during it’s last half…
-If Werth’s price tag is reasonable… think about it seriously. Drew is available 120 games a year and in a walk year so Werth could be his 2012 replacement and sub in 2011. Add to that Werth can take center and left in 2011.
I’d rather Crawford but that’s just me. And I think Werth will age less gracefully. Crawford will always have his speed atleast and is a line drive hitter. He will provide good value (offensively and defensively) for another 5+ years imo while with Werth once his power is gone he becomes a liability.
Am I the only one who doesn’t understand all the hype over Werth? If you look at their career norms he is basically Drew minus about .040 OPS (their career years are almost the same too for what it’s worth) I’m actually one Sox fan who likes Drew but you know there wouldn’t be the same hype over Drew.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Werth is awesome. I’m simply saying if the price is right then sign him. Typically he has had an above average glove in right field and the outfield in Fenway, including right field, is crazy. Add to that Werth has done great in a hitters park.
I’ve been a big Drew fan and think the Red Sox got their money’s worth signing him, especially if you add in his grand slam off of Carmona in 2007. His glove alone made him worthy of being Trot’s successor. But the fact of the matter is he’s fragile and his contract is up shortly. I think Werth is a potentially worthy successor if the price is right.
Yeah I get what you’re saying, and I agree as long as the price is right. My comment wasn’t specifically directed at you, it was really more a question about the hype overall. I’d take Werth for the right price but judging by the hype I don’t think the price will be right.
Raise your hand if you want to hear my opinion… wow, a room full of hands in their pockets.
Anyway:
-Sign Beltre long term because moving Youk off of first will be a mistake. Ultimately the plan should be try to sign one of Pujols (Hey! I can dream), Gonzalez, or Fielder in 2011 to alternate between first, third, and DH.
-Sign Buck. There’s some interesting catching prospects that are 1-2 years off in the minors and it’s not like the Sox are lacking in offense, we can spare the #8 hitting spot. If not buck, sign Tek. Let Martinez walk for the draft picks, he’ll be a 1B/DH soon.
-Let Crawford sign with the Angels. I don’t see how that contract isn’t an albatross during it’s last half…
-If Werth’s price tag is reasonable… think about it seriously. Drew is available 120 games a year and in a walk year so Werth could be his 2012 replacement and sub in 2011. Add to that Werth can take center and left in 2011.
As a Yankees fan I can’t help but root for big expensive John Buck and Adrian Beltre contracts.
Umm, Buck isn’t getting a “big expensive” contract from any team. He’ll get a short and cheap offer.
Don’t crap on my fantasy.
Too late.
Ive said it before but i think the sox should let Martinez and Beltre walk. Trade for Fielder, who is available and will cost less than Agon in prospects and money. Move Youk to third for one season and put Fielder at first. Then next year let Ortiz go and move Fielder to DH, Youkilis back to first and sign a new third baseman.
Um…Salty a starting catcher next season..huh?
The Red Sox’ interest in Lee is about as real as the Yankees soon-to-be interest in Werth. Driving up the price.
I really don’t understand this “driving up the price” argument when the yanks are the one people want to drive up the price against. Ultimately what’s the difference? The yanks spend $22M a year instead of $20M a year? We’re not talking about a team like the Marlins where a $1M increase changes whether or not they sign a guy.
My bet is if the Red Sox called Lee’s agent it was more about simply checking the market price rather than the goods… either that or someone in the office leaked Theo called “Lee” and forgot to mention they called Derek Lee.
Why does everyone want werth and downs? They are in their 30’s and require a draft pick to he signed. One downs isn’t worth a draft pick, and werth is basically another jd drew and saying we shouldve signed Jason bay. Also who knows if werth can hit in the AL east. Stick with Crawford. He can play in the AL east and he can bat 3rd or leadoff. Much better investment. Stick with putz or capps for relivers.
Regardless of Crawford, I think Werth is worth losing the pick. Not Downs though. Even in this epic draft, what % of these prospects will up being as good as Werth at the MLB level?
I think Werth could thrive in Fenway. But idk if his HR numbers would dramatically increase because it seems like he tends to hit a lot of them oppo and even with as good as he has been the last couple years he still strikes me as more of a line drive doubles hitter as opposed to just a guy that hits HRs. With all that room in right-center expect a lot of triples if he goes to Boston.
On another note to the other person above you. Signing Werth doesnt say anything about Jason Bay. Bay is not worth the money that he got last year. He isnt a good defender and isnt going to get better. You dont give out big money to guys that you could easily replace with someone else the next offseason. Thats why Cameron was brought in. More of a stopgap til this year when Werth and CC are available and he still has a year left on his deal in case both of those guys end up elsewhere. But i think that they will end up with Werth making Cameron a very good 4th OFer.
You know how some people have Fantasy’s about What it would feel like to get hit by a car, or Shot? Well i kinda just Wanna Touch Beltre’s Head and see what happens, That’s not weird is it? lol
if they sign beltre long term think about we will have one great year out of him on his contract year we cant wait that long for that type of money!
Why wouldn’t the Sox be interested in Lee?
Lee
Lester
Buchholz
Beckett
Lackey
There is no reason to create arguably the best rotation of all time.
I rather sign Lee, Konerko than have Matsuzaka and Beltre. Their combined salaries would be about the same. Konerko will get 1-2 years. Next year we use the JD Drew money on Fielder, Gonzalez or Pujols if he were to somehow be available.
I think the Sox could sign Lee and still have the funds to sign Werth, Crawford, Dunn, etc.
“Why wouldn’t the Sox be interested in Lee?”
Because left handers are historically hobbled by Fenway. It’s simply not friendly to lefties because of the monster. Look at Lester whose road numbers have typically been much better than his home numbers. There’s also the fact that Lee is 32 years old and with the Yankees involved and desperate for his services, the Sox would have to commit more than Lee is worth.
It is legit!
Beltre has his $19.8M estate for sale in California. It is located about 20 miles from where the Angels play their home games. His family is moving somewhere..
IMHO, this is the surest sign that he intends to play in Boston in 2011
Google…Adrian Beltre house for sale…to check out his crib…..outstanding!
Sometimes I really question what Gammons is thinking. Varitek back to “hit left handers?” The key word here is “hit.” Had he said back to mentor Salty for a year, I would have said okay, but to “hit’, like to put the bat ON the ball? Check the stats, Peter.