Links for Tuesday night, as free agents Adam Dunn and Dave Bush celebrate birthdays…
- Adrian Gonzalez said on XX 1090 in San Diego that he had surgery in October and may not swing a bat until late March, according to Dan Hayes of the North County Times (on Twitter). The Padres have said they’re willing to listen to offers on Gonzalez, but the surgery could limit the number of offers GM Jed Hoyer gets.
- MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch explains why the Pirates might have some interest in Adrian Beltre and why the third baseman isn't likely to end up in Pittsburgh.
- Free agent outfielder Carl Crawford says he's "just kind of sitting back waiting" to hear from interested teams, according to Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune.
- Dennis Sarfate, Scott Moore, Joel Guzman, Chris George and Mike Hinckley became minor league free agents over the weekend, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
- ESPN.com's Mark Simon explains that we aren't necessarily going to see "a strict adherence to baseball analytics and a formulaic, stats-over-scouts approach" from the Mets, who now have Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi in their revamped front office.
- The friendship between free agent first baseman Paul Konerko and White Sox Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf likely means Chicago will have the chance to match any offers Konerko receives from other teams, according to Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com.
- Patrick Newman of FanGraphs says Tsuyoshi Nishioka is a pretty good player who can hit well from both sides of the plate and handle second base. The Chiba Lotte Marines may post the Pacific League batting champion and make him available to MLB teams.
Seriously? An entire article about why the Pirates want Beltre and why he won’t end up in Pittsburgh? I can do that in like, 40 words:
The Pirates want Adrian Beltre because they think it would be cool to have more than one good player. Beltre won’t end up in Pittsburgh because he wants to win and the Pirates are losers.
35 words! Zang!
who is the other good player?
Andrew McCutchen
Pedro Alvarez
Neil Walker
Actually a decent young core and a strong farm system.
Neil Walker may be good for the pirates but for any other team with options he is a career backup who had a lucky year. And that’s not going out on a limb.
I look at it differently.
He’s 25, former first-round pick, coming off a breakout year, and he was at his best after the ASB
I’ll wait for a bit more before calling all that a “lucky year” and Walker a “career backup”.
Pirates fans, all 22 of them, do have a couple reasons to believe in the team. They have good young pitching coming up in the minors and 2 outstanding arms that they got in the draft Taillon and Stetson Allie. Not to mention other pitchers in the minors and young guys in MLB Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris, Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Diego Moreno, and Tim Alderson. They have the guys to build around in the pitching staff going forward. Position players Alvarez, McCutchen, Walker, a young Catcher prospect Tony Sanchez and dont forget about another kid Andrew Lambo he is having a good AFL so hopefully he has turned the corner.
They dont need to worry about spending yet. But 2013? Maybe.
He has league average power with a .167 Iso and it took a .340 BABIP to get him just a .296 average. When his BABIP normalizes you will see more of what Walker is. Plus he strikes out too much for a non power guy, he doesn’t have much speed, and he is a pretty terrible fielder (I realize he switched positions and could get better but still its unlikely he becomes anything better then league average defensively). Low average, no defense, low power, low speed? Sounds like backup to me.
Solid analysis Jw…nice to see someone make an argument that they can back up for a change. Points well taken, but Walker is still far from a finished product, and while yes, the AVG was inflated, he has plenty of power potential for a second baseman. I’d think far differently if he was playing a corner. He’s also 25, so the second-half improvement is worth focusing on. No, he’s not going to be a superstar, but I think you’re understating his potential a bit. Just my opinion.
Solid analysis Jw…nice to see someone make an argument that they can back up for a change. Points well taken, but Walker is still far from a finished product, and while yes, the AVG was inflated, he has plenty of power potential for a second baseman. I’d think far differently if he was playing a corner. He’s also 25, so the second-half improvement is worth focusing on. No, he’s not going to be a superstar, but I think you’re understating his potential a bit. Just my opinion.
Point still made though, that they’ve got a ways to go.
Tabata and Alvarez?
According to a Mark Gonzalez Tweet: Mark Buerhle, not having any inside info, believes AJ has a better chance of returning to the South Side, than Paulie. PK in another uniform just seems weird!!
I find it incredibly hard to believe that Buehrle doesnt have any inside information considering the fact that hes very good close with both AJ and Konerko. If Paulie leaves it will likely be because he wants to be closer to his home. Im sure he and Buehrle have discussed his preferences. Same with AJ although he has said on many occasions that he prefers to come back th the South Side.
Bottom line, if someone like Arizona pays Paulie what he feels he is worth, he will probably go. If no team close to his home offers enough, he will probably come back. Buehrle may not know all of the figures but he knows what Konerko wants.
Buehrle definitely knows more than he’s willing to divulge based on this quote “It’s just from talking to Konerko and hearing the stuff he said.” Buehrle doesn’t expand on the “stuff” out of respect for Konerko. I’m surprised he even said as much as he did.
AZ might get a “hometown discount” since Konerko has stated that money may not be his top priority. It’s difficult to factor in the amount of leverage AZ may have over Konerko regarding the blending of his baseball home and family home.
But the tie-breaker may be AZ GM Kevin Towers stating that he wants to win now. If Konerko truly believes that AZ can contend this year, it makes a one-way trip to AZ much easier.
I also wonder how much the possibilty of another Williams/Guillen sideshow in 2011 will affect Konerko’s decision.
I have a couple reasons why Beltre won’t sign with the Pirates: 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996….
Beltre could go to Pittsburgh. I mean, if as a Boras client it’s just about the money it could happen. The Pirates had the lowest payroll in the majors last year, they could surely afford one big contract. Maybe they move Alvarez to first and deal what’s his name for pitching………
Okay, that’s all I got. Sorry, playing devil’s advocate is hard when it comes to the Pirates. Had to get that Pirates adding a big contract in for amusements sake.
Can we discuss how absurd the Gold Glove is? I realize I’m a Sox fan and everything I say is biased but Jeter, Cano, and Teixeira all had negative UZRs yet won the award. Kinda humorous to me and why that award shouldn’t be taken seriously.
I was willing to forgive Cano winning one; no other second basemen really stood out from the crowd. Besides, he did have a great season with the bat, which must have contributed. But as you say, Jeter and Teixeira really didn’t deserve the awards, and Jeter didn’t even have any offensive production to fall back on.
We may both feel guilty saying these things, as Boston fans, but I was on a Yankees blog earlier and they were equally shocked about Jeter. Majority still was happy for Cano, and they were evenly split on Teixeira.
None of them did. Ellis and Hudson were better. Even Aaron Hill was better.
And I honestly have to facepalm at these people who voted for Jeter, Tex and Cano. None of them deserved it.
Barton is so underrated.
None of them did. Ellis and Hudson were better. Even Aaron Hill was better.
And I honestly have to facepalm at these people who voted for Jeter, Tex and Cano. None of them deserved it.
Barton is so underrated.
Jeter getting it is absurd. I really really don’t feel like Cano’s was unjustified, I know what UZR said but I just don’t get it. I’m obviously not a scout but it just seems to totally defy what I watched. And that goes even more so for Tex.
We thought that about ellsbury to. Complete crap is what most redsox fans said. We’ve seen him and he’s amazing. And then theo signed Mike Cameron.
I never thought Ellsbury was that special. He was bad at reading the ball but made up for it with diving catches. The problem fans have trouble understanding is that other players who read the ball better could make those plays standing and therefore have better range. It’s less flashy but takes more defensive talent.
He must have graduated from the “Aaron Rowand Outfield School”.
Jeter getting it is absurd. I really really don’t feel like Cano’s was unjustified, I know what UZR said but I just don’t get it. I’m obviously not a scout but it just seems to totally defy what I watched. And that goes even more so for Tex.
I can 100% absolutely agree that Jeter shouldn’t even be top 5 in voting for the GG award. But can we PLEASE, PLEASE agree that UZR is completely absurd? I consider myself to be an intelligent person who is open to new ways of evaluating things and usually defer to experts, but with some skepticism. I also rarely give into the “I seen it w/ my own eyes over 100 games I’ve watched” attitude. But sometime you have to use some sense when looking at stats.
No one finds it odd that Tex, widely considered to be a spectacular 1B, had a UZR of -2.9 and Adam Dunn, widely considered to be a horrible 1B had a -3.1 UZR? You mean all that seperates the two defensively w/ respect to UZR is -.20 ?
No one finds it odd that Elvus Andrus had a UZR of 0.1 and Orlando Cabrera had a 3.7? Or Sterline Castro a -2.1 ?
Is Michael Bourn (17.6) really +10 better than Franklin Gutierrez (7.3)?
Here’s a good one. David Wright vs other top 3b:
INN-Headley, Wright, Young, Beltre, Longoria
Total Chances- Wright, Lopez, Beltre, Longoria, Inge
Put Outs- Beltre, Longoria, Inge, Wright, Lopez
Assists- Lopez, Wright, Headley, Beltre, Kouzmanoff
Double Plays- Longoria, Wright, Polanco, Beltre, McGhee
ER-Wright (20), Beltre (20), Young, Encarnarcion, Johnson
Top 5 in UZR- Headley (16.5), Kouzmanoff, Zimmerman, Beltre and Longoria (11.1).
Wright ranked inside the top 5 on just about every category mentioned above along with Headley, Longo, Beltre and Kouz who all finished top 5 in UZR. Yet Wright finished as the worst 3B in UZR @ -10.6 behind Arod, Michael Young and Pablo Sandoval.
Yes he ranked 1st in ER but he only had 1 more than Beltre who is widely considered to be one of the best 3B. Add to the fact that several of those ER are due to throwing mistakes and the # of ER become less of an issue w/ regard to UZR which measures range.
Add to the fact this…
3B-David Wright-#1 in TC w/ 471. Put out rate of 24% vs Headley’s 21% (#1 in UZR).
1B-Mark Texeira- #10 in TC w/ 1,310. Put out rate of 93.6% vs Barton’s 94% (#1 in UZR)
2B-Robinson Cano- #1 in TC w/ 776. Put out rate of 44% vs Utley’s 39% (#1 in UZR). Cano also led in Assists, Double Plays and Fewest ER w/ at least 1,200 innings played. Utley also made 8 more ER in 380 fewer innings played.
SS-Elvis Andrus- #4 in TC w/ 659. Put out rate of 37% vs Brendan Ryan’s 30.5 % (#1 in UZR), Alexi Ramirez’ 32% (#2 in UZR) and Clif Pennington’s 29% (#3 in UZR). All three had more innings played than Andrus as well.
***** Jusr to show context and how my thought process COULD be flawed, Derek Jeter, who is a below avg SS in terms of range but is great at turning the plays he gets to (which results in the few errors, high field % and the reason why he wins the GG when he doesn’t deserve it) had a put out % of 32.9% which would rate him among the best SS. HOWEVER, when you put into context of how many innings vs total chances (which adds the perspective of how many balls he gets to) he comes up fairly short compared to the other SS’s.
Ramirez 1,376 inn w/ 768 Total chances
Betancourt 1,331 inn w/ 692 TC
Pennington 1,304 inn w/ 739 TC
Jeter 1,303 inn w/ 553 TC
Andrus 1,291 inn w/ 659 TC
So obviously while Jeter is great at converting his TC into outs he gets to FAR fewer balls compared to other SS with similar innings played. Thus the arguement that he’s a sure handed SS w/ below average range and thus has the low UZR of -6.5.
Ok, now back to Tex, Cano, Wright and Andrus. All 4 ranked high in TC, Put out % and other stats but came up completely short in terms of UZR. How does this happen? The arguement isn’t for them to be #1 in their positional rankings but how does Tex rank @ 14th, Andrus 11th, Cano 12th and Wright dead last @ 20th while also being among the top 5 (among 2B, SS and 3B) and top 10 (among 1B) at their positions. 1B by nature will have tons of TC because they are involved w/ so many plays and because tex only played 1,291 inngs lesser defensmen like Fielder, Cabrera and Howard rank ahead of him in TC. However, Tex ranks much higher in put out % and fewest ER and is 3rd in double plays behind Pujols and Overbay.
For 2B, SS and 3B TC is a more meaningfull stat to look at vs a 1B. They are in the thick of things. For Andrus, Wright and Cano to be among the leaders @ their position in TC means they are getting to more balls or are psychics and just always happen to be in the right place at the right time. How do the three of them rank top 4 at their positions in TC and put out % and yet be so far from the top (none in the top 10) in UZR which is suppose to be a metric of their range and ability to get to balls in play in their “zones”. The fact that Jeter falls so short in TC but Cano, Tex and Andrus rank so high shows some signifigance in telling a “truer” measure of how good (Cano, Tex and Andrus) or how bad (Jeter) that their range or ability to get to a ball in play is, and how a stat like UZR is truly flawed.
The fact that Mark Texeira only ranks -.20 ahead of Adam Dunn but ranks top5 in Bill James fielding bible where Dunn isn’t even rated shows a glaring inconsistency that Stevie Wonder could see.
And just to further my point w/ regards to UZR, I have less of a problem with it being applied to OF’ers where there’s more of a defined “zone” and the player has more time to adjust to a batted ball to adjust to factors like playing deep/shallow or shading to the left/right. Of’ers w/ great speed usually tend to rank high in UZR ratings. Add a players intellect in playing in the right position (Drew) and the players ability to adjust to a bad read (Granderson) and you get a better sense.
If you look at UZR rating, Bill James fielding bible and the GG voting then you see way more consistencies in the consensus for who’s good and who isn’t.
LF- UZR (#1 Gardner, #2 Crawford), Bill James (#1 Gardner, #2 Crawford), GG voting (Crawford won).
CF- UZR (#1 Bourn, #4 Guitteirez), Bill James (#1 Bourn, #2 Guitteirez), GG voting (Guitteirez)
RF- UZR (#1 Jay Bruce, #2 Ichiro), Bill James (#1 Ichiro, #2 Jay Bruce), GG voting (Ichiro).
It seems that UZR is almost right on w/ the findings of other respected sabermatician’s like Bill James as well as the players and coaches who vote for the GG awards. For some reason it just seems off when it comes to judging the IF’ers.
UZR, serious business.
Go mets
Pirates Agenda for ’10.
Get a shortstop, cedeno had a good finish but he’s shown he can’t be a starter.
Trade Garret Jones for a veteran starter with an ERA under 4.
Trade Ryan Doumit for two pitching prospects.
Get new management that realizes that Lastings Millege hit .270 last year and he’s improving every year. Expect .280 next year if he plays.
Sign a few middle relievers.
Keep Tony Sanchez safe.
Pick up A-Gon or Prince (I wish) but a good idea.
DON’T SIGN BELTRE. Stupidest move you could possibly make.
Aaaand that’s about it…. If they do this, you will see a winning Pirates team in 2013.
You think Garrett Jones, a player your own team doesn’t think is good enough to play every day and who just finished a replacement level performance season, is going to get you a front-end starter?
Most players who have a great first year tend to have a setback year the next. That was the case for Garrett. But his numbers in ’09 were outstanding. 11 home runs in July, and if he kept his numbers the entire season, he would’ve had 40+ home runs. He can be seen as a potential RBI guy for other teams. Padres maybe if they decide to get rid of Adrian.
Maybe, but not until he proves it first and all the talk from the Pirates about how they want to platoon him just further kills whatever trade value he might have had. His own team doesn’t feel he can play ever day; you’re going to get lowballed offers even in the (probably unlikely) event that the team who wants him disagrees with that assessment.
I’m always very skeptical of players who have tremendous seasons out of the blue. Sometimes I’m wrong, as I was when I was skeptical of Chris Carpenter after his first Cy Young, but the player needs to prove it first. The “sophomore slump” may certainly be one explanation for Jones. Another may be that there is a gaping hole in his swing that pitchers can exploit. Ultimately time will tell, but if I’m a GM, Jones currently has little trade value to me and certainly not enough to get a #2-3 pitcher out of me.
Pirates Agenda for Any Season:
1. Sell tickets.
2. Sell merchandise.
3. Field a competitive baseball team.
I’ll take what I get and I know she’s legal, but just a few more losing seasons and you can buy her drinks too!
-wtk
Pirates Agenda for ’10.
Get a shortstop, cedeno had a good finish but he’s shown he can’t be a starter.
Trade Garret Jones for a veteran starter with an ERA under 4.
Trade Ryan Doumit for two pitching prospects.
Get new management that realizes that Lastings Millege hit .270 last year and he’s improving every year. Expect .280 next year if he plays.
Sign a few middle relievers.
Keep Tony Sanchez safe.
Pick up A-Gon or Prince (I wish) but a good idea.
DON’T SIGN BELTRE. Stupidest move you could possibly make.
Aaaand that’s about it…. If they do this, you will see a winning Pirates team in 2013.
Orioles need to be all over that SS for Japan. No way Izzy will give us what this kid from Japan will. Switch hitter who can play 2nd, SS, or 3B who can steal, pick em with the glove, and hit for average. Also if we re-sign Uehara that might make Baltimore a bit more appealing to the kid from Japan. He us getting comps. to Ichiro. We need to be in this.