Let's take a look at the latest from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe….
- Cafardo suggests the money the Red Sox could have spent on Victor Martinez may be used to make a bigger splash. He speculates that splash could involve trading for Adrian Gonzalez and signing him to an extension, but ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider-only link) still expects the Padres to begin the 2011 season with Gonzalez on their roster.
- One National League GM on Boston deciding not to match the Tigers' offer for Martinez: "He really rakes lefthanded pitching. That was the strange thing about the Red Sox for me — that in a division where there are so many good lefthanded pitchers, Martinez hit them at a .400 clip [in 2010]. Big, big loss for the Red Sox."
- One option the Rangers are discussing internally, in the event they can't sign Cliff Lee, is moving Neftali Feliz to the rotation and signing a closer such as Rafael Soriano.
- Olney reported earlier this week that rival executives view the Rangers as the team with the best shot at acquiring Zack Greinke. Cafardo hears the same thing, noting that Engel Beltre is "often mentioned as trade bait."
- As we heard when the Twins won the bidding for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Red Sox were also involved. According to Cafardo, Boston's bid was about $2.3MM, and their interest in the Japanese shortstop was "marginal." With Jed Lowrie and Jose Iglesias already in the organization, Nishioka didn't make a ton of sense for the club.
- Cafardo expects the Padres, Red Sox, or Indians to hire Josh Byrnes in the near future.
lets start the agon trade proposals!!
People love to throw Ellsbury into these things. I just don’t see the Padres wanting anything to do with him considering he is going to be entering arbitration and is a Boras client.
I think any trade for AGon is going to involve both Casey Kelly and Bard (one high upside prospect, but still just a prospect, and one player who can contribute immediately) and then add other smaller pieces from there. The Red Sox are not the only team with prospects who would like AGon, competition will be stiff.
You sir, are 100% correct and thank you for posting a sensible comment concerning Gonzalez early in this thread. If I am other teams, I am looking at Ellsbury as a throw in right now and if I am the Red Sox, his value really can’t be any lower at the moment. As you mentioned. He has been injured several times now, he is arbitration eligible, a boras client and outside of one stellar season, he has shown no consistency.
I don’t think that that is what he said at all. He didn’t say anything about Ellsbury being injured, which has only happened once by the way, he was saying that he doesn’t fit the Padres because they would be looking for someone with a lot more team control. And if by “shown no consistency” you mean that he has had two full seasons and got considerably better from his first year to his second, well, then I suppose you are right.
I wrote my comment and then saw that you wrote the exact same thing. Century has a hard time speaking objectively about anything Red Sox related though.
So I’ve noticed…
I don’t think that that is what he said at all. He didn’t say anything about Ellsbury being injured, which has only happened once by the way, he was saying that he doesn’t fit the Padres because they would be looking for someone with a lot more team control. And if by “shown no consistency” you mean that he has had two full seasons and got considerably better from his first year to his second, well, then I suppose you are right.
“He has been injured several times now, he is arbitration eligible, a boras client and outside of one stellar season, he has shown no consistency”
What? He played two seasons without getting hurt and steadily improved, then he had one injury. He had some minor injuries in the minors, but what is this several injury and no consistency talk? One stellar season is hilarious considering the guy has played two seasons. I’d argue that his 2008 season was just as good as his 2009…he was a superior fielder in 2008 and improved offensively in 2009. He is far from a throw in, even though his value has taken a bit of a hit. But still, tons of GM’s would love to get a hold of Ellsbury. The guy has three years of control left. Any GM would take that.r
You sir, are 100% correct and thank you for posting a sensible comment concerning Gonzalez early in this thread. If I am other teams, I am looking at Ellsbury as a throw in right now and if I am the Red Sox, his value really can’t be any lower at the moment. As you mentioned. He has been injured several times now, he is arbitration eligible, a boras client and outside of one stellar season, he has shown no consistency.
A trade would need to involve Lowrie or Iglesias. The Padres need a SS bad. Something like Lowrie, Doubront, Rizzo, Fuentes.
if that includes an extension , I’d do it right now if I was theo.
At this point we can propose anything we like and it’s already been done before. Anything. Including the lester+buchholz or Bowden+lowrie.
Even if the Red Sox managed to make a trade for Gonzalez there is absolutely no reason he would sign a contract extension.
umm yes there is! Yeah bc if they offered 50 mil per year for 10 years there would be absolutely no reason to sign an extension!
I can think of about 125 million reason he would sign an extension
Adrian would justifiably say ‘Take Mark Teixeira’s contract and add $20MM’.
Do you really think the Red Sox are going to offer any player a 10 year, $500M deal? It might take that to convince A-Gon to not go free agent, but I think even Theo isn’t that dumb.
Can’t they make the trade dependent on an extension agreement? Or is that not allowed?
Can’t they make the trade dependent on an extension agreement? Or is that not allowed?
I agree, he will be a free agent in 2012 and your assuming he wants to play for the Sox. The Sox have been trying to get him forever. Look what happened with Martinez and possibly Beltre. It sounds like Martinez was talked into Detriot,and Crawford sounds like he wants to go to the west. Unless your willing to over pay for these free agents your not going to get them.
I agree, he will be a free agent in 2012 and your assuming he wants to play for the Sox. The Sox have been trying to get him forever. Look what happened with Martinez and possibly Beltre. It sounds like Martinez was talked into Detriot,and Crawford sounds like he wants to go to the west. Unless your willing to over pay for these free agents your not going to get them.
I think the Sox would simply offer him top dollar to assure that they get him long-term. They wouldn’t trade for him just to let him become a free agent.
I think the Sox would simply offer him top dollar to assure that they get him long-term. They wouldn’t trade for him just to let him become a free agent.
As I’ve said before, the clock is ticking on San Diego to make a move. It’s a foregone conclusion that he won’t be back in SD in 2012. It’s basically looking at diminishing returns the longer they wait to trade A-Gon. Red Sox will NOT trade both Kelly and Bard. Ellsbury is young and proven and there’s speculation that Boston has other options in the OF and would be willing to include Ellsbury in the deal. To say SD doesn’t want anything to do with Ellsbury is silly, plenty of teams would jump to have him. I would like to see JE stay with the Sox, but if it means getting Gonzo so be it. If SD waits until the trade deadline, then the return will be less because you’re talking only 4 months of service in exchange for top prospects AND having to resign him. If Boston works a trade now, they can possibly work an extension during the season. Time will tell.
For his career, Martinez is only slightly better against lefties than righties. Last year his .400 BA against lefties was largely due to a ridiculously high .382 BABIP against righties. He is better for his career against lefties, but his wOBA is only 13 points higher than it is against righties. Sounds like Ned Coletti or Brian Sabean may have been the GM interviewed there.
or maybe Ed Wade.
Good lefties make Ortiz and Drew look silly these days though. If the Yankees throw Sabathia, Lee, and Pettite against the Red Sox it would be a long weekend for those two. Having a big bat besides Youkilis that can handle them would go a long way.
Ya…. although theo will have SOMETHING going by Feb. Probably Werth.
I agree, he has to do something. Martinez would have just been more cost efficient in my opinion. Who knows though, the market may take a dive for Werth.
I agree that Drew and Ortiz are useless against lefties, but are you forgetting another righthanded hitter by the name of Pedroia? I hear he’s pretty good when he plays with two feet.
Personally I don’t care if the Red Sox lineup is predominantly lefthanded.
75% of all pitchers are righthanders. Yankee Stadium is tailor made for lefthanded hitters. And they are supposed to be bringing in the Fenway right field fence approx 9 feet. Those are all good reasons to sign Crawford and trade for Gonzalez.
I hate it when GMs think its a good idea to turn closers into starters. Especially when its a closer like Neftali Feliz, who is lights out in his current role. How can you expect to get the same value out of him as a starter. Not to mention the guy can really hurt himself drastically increasing the amount of innings he pitches from one season to the next. I HATE THIS IDEA!
I thought Feliz was supposed to be a starter anyways? Although I get what you’re saying. He’s used to 1 inning now and it could be the same thing that happened with Chamberlain and the Yanks.
That is what I’m thinking. It would be one thing if Feliz was already well developed as a starter but he had a long way to go. It obviously wasn’t that he didn’t have the stuff yet, but he was still learning how to pitch in the big leagues. I don’t necessarily think that because you can close that it means you know how to start, two totally different roles.
I think the Rangers will make a big push for Grienke if they don’t get Lee.
I hope not!!!
Wait until you see the prospects you’ll get for him if we do decide to make a run. It will take some of the sting out.
Feliz shouldn’t have been moved to the bullpen in the first place.
He was always a starter. A good starter is more valuable than a good closer.
I strongly disagree.
This year Soriano was directly responsible for 48 Tampa wins. Sabathia was directly responsible for 23 Yankee wins.
I’ll take the guy who ensures a late lead turns into a win, and does so approx once out of every 3 games his team plays.
When Soriano or Rivera come into a game, I know it will almost certainly be a win. When Hernandez or Sabathia or Price start a game, there’s a reasonable chance their team will not win no matter how well they pitch.
Which is exactly why wins for a starting pitcher are by far the stupidest statistic around. See Felix Hernandez’s 2010 season.
Rafael Soriano was worth 1.6 wins above replacement, while CC was worth 5.1.
I don’t believe statistics such as Wins are simply black or white, there’s a lot of gray in there. Wins are important, but they are definitely not most important. I was very happy Felix won it this year, and Greinke and Lincecum won it last year. They had fantastic ERA’s and WHIP’s etc which to me are more important.
However, I’m not going to penalize a guy who pitches great 28 times and gets rocked 7 times. I’m also not going to penalize a guy who gives up more runs because he can afford to give up more runs. In all fairness to Sabathia, if he had the same lousy run support that Felix had, he would likely have pitched differently and his ERA and WHIP would have been different. Maybe better, maybe worse … it’s hard to say.
Fair enough, I don’t disagree with anything you said in this post. However, I really don’t agree with comparing wins and saves to assess a pitcher’s value. I think WAR is probably the best bet there.
What you fail to take into account is the fact that without those starters pitching well enough to keep their team in the lead there would be no need for closers to begin with. So while you may be right that it is a much more sure win when they are entering the game then when a starter starts a game, your argument is flawed because a starter needs to pitch 6-8 innings good enough to warrant the one inning from a closer, so a closers value is dependent on the quality of starters (and relievers) in front of him while a starters value is dependent almost solely on himself.
Your first sentence is correct, but in this era starting pitchers rarely go more than seven innings which means the bullpen is far more important than it used to be decades ago.
The starting pitcher absolutely does not need to pitch well or pitch long in order for the closer to have a save opportunity. Dice-K can pitch 5 innings and give up 5 runs, and Papelbon still can have the opportunity to protect a 6-5 lead in the 9th.
That is why closers are more important, because they almost always work with a small margin for error. Lester gives up 3 runs in the first inning? Not a big deal, he can redeem himself over the next 6-7 innings and his offense has plenty of time to tie the game. Papelbon gives up 3 runs in the 9th? Very big deal, because if he had pitched well and protected the lead the Sox would definitely have won. Now the certain win is gone, and if it’s the bottom of the 9th the game has most likely ended with a loss.
Starting pitchers are dependent on their offense scoring at least one run, and they are dependent on their bullpen protecting the lead.
Closers don’t rely on their offense, and they don’t rely on other pitchers to save the game. If a closer does his job, he’s not dependent on anybody except his defense and himself.
I understand where you are coming from but I think you are confusing high pressure or high leverage with more value. What it all boils down to is if you have 5 starting pitchers who can’t go 5 innings and give up 8 runs a game your closer is going to be really bored. You have to have quality starters before you need to think about even an average closer. A good starter pitches somewhere over 150 important innings a season, while even the best closers pitch somewhere around 60 important innings.
I understand where you are coming from but I think you are confusing high pressure or high leverage with more value. What it all boils down to is if you have 5 starting pitchers who can’t go 5 innings and give up 8 runs a game your closer is going to be really bored. You have to have quality starters before you need to think about even an average closer. A good starter pitches somewhere over 150 important innings a season, while even the best closers pitch somewhere around 60 important innings.
Problem is if you have a closer lead in the 9th you usually win the game with any decent closer. The worst heavy use closer last year was Jonathon Broxton with a 75.9 success rate. The best was Heath Bell at 94% success rate. This can be heavily influenced by the make up of their leads (mix of 3/2/1 runs leads) and the ballpark (a 3 run lead in Petco is easier. all else being equal, to close that a 3 run lead in Coors). With 50 save opportunities Bell would have given you 9 more wins that Broxton at last years rates. That is the worst that you could have done. With an average closer to the best the difference is more like 4 or 5 wins. Feliz with some success as starter and an average closer is better than your average 5th starter and an elite closer.
Hopefully I misread this post.
Would you also say that Brian Wilson (48 saves) is more valuable than Roy Halladay (21 wins)? Maybe Octavio Dotel (22 saves) more valuable than Adam Wainwright (20 wins)?
It’s not as though Texas would be asking Feliz to do something he’s never done before. He started at AAA, and the Rangers organization thought he would be a starter as he was coming up. The guy has the makeup to pitch longer, and starters are both more valuable and more predictable than closers. Great move.
I think that the Rangers should move him back to the rotation even if they resign Lee. Once Feliz gets accustomed to the number of innings he would be pitching in the rotation, he and Lee make a very good 1-2 punch.
CJ Wilson moving to a starter was a terrible idea too…
I can see where he’s coming from, but the upside would be tremoundous over the potential downfall. If Feliz fails, they work on getting him back to the bp, but if he’s starting he may not be as dominant because it would be harder to maintain the high velocity on his fastball. He lives off of that. I’m guessing if he does get moved back, he will dominate and will do so for years to come. But if I had to guess why he was freaking out over it, that’s why.
Prior to 2010, CJ Wilson had a 12.05 career ERA as a starter in the Bigs. He started his career in the minors as a starter. It wasn’t until he moved to the bullpen and worked on some pitches that he was able to make a successful transition back to starter. Neftali Feliz needs to work on some secondary pitches to compliment his fastball, and THEN consider moving to starter. Without working on other pitches, I see him blowing away the lineup the first time thru, then getting touched the 2nd time thru, and then in inning 6 and 7, getting thoroughly nailed.
I recall loads of people freaking out when the Cardinals wanted to move Wainwright back to the rotation after his post season success as the closer. Horrible move, wasn’t it.
I think Wainwright is a bad example because of the type of pitcher he is. Wainwright was older and knew how to utilize his pitches correctly which is key as a starter. It also doesn’t hurt that Wainwright throws one of the best breaking pitches in the MLB. Feliz depends too heavily on the velocity of his fastball.
The Rangers turned a starter into a closer, not the other way around. Plus, starters have much more value than closers do anyway.
The only closer I remember being converted to a starter recently is Ryan Dempster and that worked pretty well. CJ Wilson worked pretty well too I’d say.
yeah but Feliz was a starter in the minors who had to be brought up to close because Frank Francisco blew chunks early on.
Feliz actually made the team out of Spring Training as a set-up man, and then took over for Francisco.
Feliz actually made the team on Aug 2, 2009, and it sure as heck wasn’t for his ability to start a game… Solely his ability to throw heat.
Very true. I was just pointing out that Feliz was not called up to replace Francisco as the closer.
very true. in spring training of 2010, he was given a shot at a starting position, but it was clear that at the time, other candidates were a better option. And when they told him something along the lines of “sorry, you’re not gonna be a starter this year” they had to come out and tell him after a few more outings “when you come out of the bullpen, we dont want you to pitch the same way you do when you start, we just want the heat”
Feliz has a good fastball, but if he cant keep the speed up over 70 innings, i’m afraid of how bad it might deteriorate over 150. Only time will tell.
The only closer I remember being converted to a starter recently is Ryan Dempster and that worked pretty well. CJ Wilson worked pretty well too I’d say.
since we’re talking about relievers becoming starters, do you guys think that Chapman will be a setup man, closer, or starter next year? My guess is closer because i know i would rather have a guy come out of the bullpen and throw fire (105) rather than once out of every 5 days and having to back it off to get up to 100 pitches
Why is it so hard for people to understand why the Sox didn’t really want VMart back? He can get hit yes, but he is a defensive liability at both 1B & C and the Sox picked up Ortiz’ option at DH.
Plus, look at how much time he’s missed due to injury the last few years…
I’d rather have Victor’s weak D and strond offense, than Salty’s D and offense.
That’s what I was saying. But Theo has some sort of plan in place. They knew losing him was a possibility.
Me too! Their’s no comparison.
Me too! Their’s no comparison.
I agree. He is going to be increasingly bad at catcher and his bat is pretty average for a 1B or DH and over 4 years he probably won’t age well. Better to go cheap at catcher and spend at OF/3B/1B.
Martinez hit .273 vs lefties in 2009.
Obviously the Red Sox have interest in Gonzalez but I wonder if they’d look to trade for Prince Fielder and work out an extension. Not as good on defense as Gonzalez but he could be Ortiz’s successor at some point at DH. Milwaukee should want a similar package for Fielder as SD wants for Gonzalez. You can all feel free to begin tearing apart that idea, I’m sure it’s flawed / overlooking several factors.
Bring in A.J. Pierzynski!!!!
AGon isn’t leaving SD until the Padres have his replacement ready to step in
That’s why Anthony Rizzo would need to be included in a trade.
AGon isn’t leaving SD until the Padres have his replacement ready to step in
The Sox won’t trade for Gonzalez at this point unless they’re 100% certain he’ll sign a contract extension. Giving up the prospects required to land Gonzalez simply wouldn’t be worth it for a 1 year rental.
Gonzo is a 5.5+ WAR player for 5.5 million. There’s tremendous value in that even as a 1 year rental. The Sox could make a trade for him and still have the money to fill out the rest of their roster. They would most likely be world series favorites.
There is of course the added bonus of having a leg up on other teams in the market for Gonzo after next year.
Kelly/Kalish/Lowrie for AGON would make sense.
Makes sense sure but would Theo trade Kalish, who proved he can be a very, very good outfielder. But I guess you gotta give to get.
For A-Gonz I think he probably would.
Kelly/Kalish/Lowrie for AGON would make sense.
Someone fill me in on Engle Beltre. Is this a guy the Rangers can build a package around for Greinke?
No.
No.
Double no. The guy you build a package around is Martin Perez.
Triple no. He’s nothing to write home about. Certainly not anything more then a throw in
He wouldn’t be the main piece. But don’t listen to some of these guys, he’s a very good prospect.
Why would the Rangers match up with the Royals for a trade for Greinke? I see nothing but pitching prospects which the Royals already have in depth…Please tell this trade will never happen with the Rangers…
Let’s take a look at the Royals 2010 season for just a second. Obviously the prospects you speak of aren’t good enough (yet) to have replaced any of the pitchers on the roster, or they would already be there. The Royals finished LAST in the AL and only 0.03 ERA better than the Pirates. Their best starter was Greinke with a 4.17 ERA. Chen also finished with a 4.17 era but only because of his relief work. Only Soria and Farnsworth finished sub 3.50 (minimum 10 innings).
Prospects are NEVER guaranteed to produce in at the Major League level. And in case you havent paid attention to the Royals, they WANT top level pitching prospects for Greinke… they dont need bats, they need fielding (which can be coached) and pitching.
Let’s take a look at the Royals 2010 season for just a second. Obviously the prospects you speak of aren’t good enough (yet) to have replaced any of the pitchers on the roster, or they would already be there. The Royals finished LAST in the AL and only 0.03 ERA better than the Pirates. Their best starter was Greinke with a 4.17 ERA. Chen also finished with a 4.17 era but only because of his relief work. Only Soria and Farnsworth finished sub 3.50 (minimum 10 innings).
Prospects are NEVER guaranteed to produce in at the Major League level. And in case you havent paid attention to the Royals, they WANT top level pitching prospects for Greinke… they dont need bats, they need fielding (which can be coached) and pitching.
I’m not keen on shifting Feliz from closer to starter. Yes, he could do it, but he wouldn’t be as effective as a starter. He is a dominating fastball hurler, but he doesn’t have the control or repertoire of other pitches that would make him an ace. If he could work on developing his other pitches to allow him not to wear out his arm over 200 innings throwing nothing but heat, then maybe he could become a legitimate number one pitcher.
I hope Lee makes a decision in the next 1-2 weeks so the Rangers can move on one way or another. I know Lee’s agent wants to drag this out to see how much he can squeeze out of the teams wanting Lee’s services, but I hate the wait. The sale of the team through the courts wore out my patience this year.
I’m not keen on shifting Feliz from closer to starter. Yes, he could do it, but he wouldn’t be as effective as a starter. He is a dominating fastball hurler, but he doesn’t have the control or repertoire of other pitches that would make him an ace. If he could work on developing his other pitches to allow him not to wear out his arm over 200 innings throwing nothing but heat, then maybe he could become a legitimate number one pitcher.
I hope Lee makes a decision in the next 1-2 weeks so the Rangers can move on one way or another. I know Lee’s agent wants to drag this out to see how much he can squeeze out of the teams wanting Lee’s services, but I hate the wait. The sale of the team through the courts wore out my patience this year.
I think for the Red Sox, Martinez’s bat was very tempting, but his catching, and the years he wanted were not pleasing to them. They just wanted a better defensive catcher. I don’t know how Martinez worked well with the Red Sox’ pitching staff, but they probably want someone more in the Varitek variety of calling a good game.
I agree, but with Buck gone I don’t think their are any options that are great upgrades.
Can someone explain to me why it’s assumed the Padres would want Rizzo? He’s a first base prospect. Yes, a Gonzalez trade would block him in Boston, but if he’s moved in that deal, he’d be blocked in San Diego by Blanks. People seem to forget about him for some reason. My guess is a package like this would do:
To SD: Stolmy Pimentel, Drake Britton, Will Middlebrooks, Che-Hsuan Li, Josh Reddick, Jeremy Hazelbaker
To BOS: Adrian Gonzalez (7yr/$185.5M Extension as part of the deal)
San Deigo might want a package of : Reddick, Kelly, Bowden or Kalish.
I could see some combination of Kelly, Reddick, Kalish, iglesias, lowrie, and rizzo… before you redsox fans crap your pants… I am not saying all should go to SD, some combination of 2-4 of these players depending on when he is traded and whether or not he is willing to sign long term with the sox. These 6 fit what the padres would need in major league ready or near ready and controllable.
I could see some combination of Kelly, Reddick, Kalish, iglesias, lowrie, and rizzo… before you redsox fans crap your pants… I am not saying all should go to SD, some combination of 2-4 of these players depending on when he is traded and whether or not he is willing to sign long term with the sox. These 6 fit what the padres would need in major league ready or near ready and controllable.
Bowden left a ton to be desired, Reddick has proven he can hit well in AAA but hasn’t translated in the MLB, and I feel Kelly is going to be another Bowden, he seems to get hit around a lot, I say trade him while his value is high. However, Kalish could be a part of a deal, he’s gonna be an asset to a team.
You must not hae seen Blanks play last year. To say his bat looked “slow” would be generous. Then there’s the TJ surgery he had in August.
As for your proposal, I would imagine the Padres would hang up relatively quickly. No Kelly, Bard, Rizzo, or Iglesias?
You must not hae seen Blanks play last year. To say his bat looked “slow” would be generous. Then there’s the TJ surgery he had in August.
As for your proposal, I would imagine the Padres would hang up relatively quickly. No Kelly, Bard, Rizzo, or Iglesias?
And the Agon trade talks keep going on would people just shut the hell up about it, Sox fans want this guy so bad i hope he goes to the Yankees to everyone can STFU
You should have known you were going to see them when you clicked on an article that talked about A-Gonz trade speculation in the first line. You have no one but yourself to blame…
Kelly, Pimtel, Kallish, and Lowrie/Iglesis is probably right, but you may need to add 1 prospect or go with Ellsbury instead of Kallish. I don’t know how much the FO wants Ells. I think it would be hard for the pads to turn down Kelly, Pimtel, Kallish, Lowire/Iglesis, and Reddick. I think the Sox could do it and still be in great shape. They’d also still have Rizzo.