Lefty Jorge de la Rosa will test the free agent market, reports Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd still plans to make an aggressive multiyear offer, saying, "We continue to have a strong desire to bring him back. The conversations have been great."
In Renck's estimation, De La Rosa is seeking a four or five-year contract. The southpaw, 30 in April, is one of the better free agent starters available despite never reaching 200 innings and a career walk rate of 4.5 per nine. De La Rosa's case was strengthened when the Dodgers re-signed Ted Lilly at three years and $33MM earlier this month. De La Rosa is represented by TWC Sports.
Our reverse-engineered Elias rankings suggest De La Rosa barely made the Type A cutoff. He'll likely turn down an arbitration offer from the Rockies on November 30th, allowing Colorado to snag two draft picks if another team signs him. Only one of those picks would come from the signing team. Note that at 74.092 points, De La Rosa is the sixth-lowest rated of the 29 Type A free agents. If a team signs De La Rosa and another higher-rated Type A who also turned down arbitration, one of the Rockies' picks could be pushed to the second or third round of the draft. Renck expects the Rockies to pursue another free agent starter if De La Rosa departs.
Renck adds that the Rockies' decision on catcher Miguel Olivo's $2.5MM mutual option is due three days after the World Series. He says they're leaning against exercising their side due to Carney Lansford's success working with Chris Iannetta.
Oliver perez take 2
DLR has red flags all over him. Fears of signing “the next Oliver Perez” may have something to them. Although he won 16 games two seasons ago, his performance declined across the board, and managed to pitch just over 120 innings after missing a couple of months. In particular, clubs looking for a lefty starter might be drawn to DLR, but he’s a risky play with the amount that he’ll probably command as one of the top six or eight starters on the market, and probably the top lefty after Lee and Pettite both go to the Yanks.
DLR is the epitome of a #5 starter except that you probably won’t get 200 IP. How anyone wants to give a multi-year deal to a guy who has a career ERA over 5.00, never pitched 200 innings in a year and walks a lotof guys is amazing.
That’s just an indication of how thin the free agent market is for starting pitchers. How many of the FA starters would most GM’s rather have than DLR? Lee, Pettite (who’s going to NY or the golf course), Pavano, Kuroda.. any others? Webb if he’s healthy, Padilla? Vazquez? Not a lot there… Some team will probably give him a 4 yr/ $ 48 mil contract.
DLR has had success and I expect him to have comparable success the next couple of years. The Oliver Perez concerns are legit, but only really concern me if a team expects him to be anything more than a #3 starter. I think a 3 year deal for 18-21 million is reasonable and not crippling for a team with a budget. However, I do expect him to top that figure and ultimately disappoint.
Having watched him pitch for the Rockies for the past three seasons, I certainly understand the intrigue the guy generates. He’s averaged right at a strikeout per inning and at times has looked unhittable. But he also walks a LOT of batters (more than 4 per 9 IP) and isn’t particularly durable: the last four seasons he has made 23, 23, 32, and 20 starts and has totalled 566.2 IP (right at 140 per season).
If the Rockies can bring him back at their price (no more than four years, and no more than $8 million per year) then I would like to see him come back. More than that in either category is really rolling the dice for a team that can’t afford to do so.
How can the team not afford to do so??? There is plenty of $$ that will be available this offseason with many players not returning: Hawpe(w/ 10 mil option if he was to stay in Col but he still get 2/3 mil on the open market), Barmes(arb eligible, made 3.25 this season), Olivo(looks like the Rox wont pick up his 2.5 mil option), Francis(made 5.75 this season, no expects him to get anymore than the league min.), and there are other guys who are in question if they will return or not. I undestand there will be raises in order for a few players(i.e. Tulo, Ubaldo, etc) but there should be money to spend this offseason.
To be honest, he wont stay in Col if he gets 3 yrs and 8 mil/yr. He will find someone will pay him closer to 10/12 mil/yr…the only thing the Rox really have on their side is the fact that he is a Type-A FA. So if he does go somewhere else, we will get 2 draft picks back in return for losing JDLR and it all depends if teams think the draft picks are worth it. I have a feeling many wont think its worth it and his stock will take a hit.
My thoughts are that the Rox need to resign him. The reason being that he is a much needed piece to a rotation that is in need dire need of a at best semi-consistent LHP. If JDLR walks then your telling me we have a better chance at contending with J. Westbrook or Javier Vazquez in his place?? I do not think so. He’s almost a must-sign for the Rox even if they have to overpay.
Honestly, I do think they would have at least as good a shot with Westbrook or Vazquez. The primary reason is that both of those guys are reliable, durable pitchers, which De la Rosa is not.
If you give me the choice between a guy who pitches 140 innings with a 4.20 ERA and a guy who pitches 190 innings with a 4.40 ERA, then I’m going with the latter every single time.
I very much like the idea of signing Vazquez to a deal with a reasonable base salary and a number of incentives tied to innings pitched.
There is no way that the Rockies should sign De la Rosa for 4 years and $40-45 million. That is WAY too big a roll of the dice.
I’d probably take Vazquez over De La Rosa, and I like La Rosa’s upside. With that said, I can’t see why a team would offer more than 2 years plus a vesting option. He’s got good upside, but he hasn’t proven he can be healthy OR keep his walks down. He’s the exact kind of guy I’d roll the dice on for a fantasy baseball season and the exact kind of guy that as a real GM I’d shy away from.