Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2009-10 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics. Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at his 2009-10 projections, to tide you over until the official ones come out from Elias. There are a lot of moving parts in reverse-engineering the Elias rankings, so these are subject to change if we find errors. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed during the season's final week.
Ok, now the Cards decision to release Lopez with 2 weeks left in the season makes absolutely no sense. They gave up a supplemental draft pick because they didn’t like that he was late? It’s not like they could have been worried about paying him an outrageous arbitration amount.
Yeah I wanted to mention, we need to redo these rankings with Lopez in the AL. Not sure what will change.
Lopez is in the NL, Tim (I can’t get to my gmail at work, as I’m sure you’ve asked that). It’s based on rosters as of 8/31.
Oh cool! Sorry for doubting.
Yeah, I don’t exactly understand the system… but at the very least the Cards gave up a draft pick which is simply weird.
You don’t think he would of accepted an arbitration offer? I’m not an expert on all of this but it just seems he struggled to find a job last offseason and ended up signing for a million bucks at the beginning of spring training. He had a poor season with more of his bad attitude. I can’t see any more interest in him this offseason. I think there would at least be a possibility he would of accepted and been satisfied with his small raise. I could be wrong though?
Even if he accepted they would still have the option of cutting him in ST and paying him something like 1/5 of his salary. Worth the risk, IMO, for the chance to land an additional supplemental pick (especially with next season’s class strength).
An arbitration contract isn’t garaunteed? That is strange, never knew that.
No it’s a garuentee contract but the team still has the option to release the player and take the loss or trade him to some other team for some B- prospect. In other words let’s say worst case scenario: Lopez accepts arbitration and the arbitrator actually believes Lopez is still worth $1M. Cards still could have eaten the salary and released him, eaten a chunk of the salary and traded him to a team that needed a 25th man for a B- prospect, or sucked it up and hoped he’d turn it around in a month or 2. Either way, even if worst case scenario happens then Cards are out 1% of their salary space for a first round pick. Sounds like a decent lottery ticket.
My opinion is Boras cost him any chance of signing, why he fired him just 2 weeks before reporting date to ST. Boras probably set an astronomically high salary requirement for him, on top of his poor attitude that no team was willing to meet and regardless of the good numbers he had put up in DC, there was nobody willing to give it to him, Boras having little time to deal with his lower tier clients at the start of the FA period, just several reasons.
Firing Boras was probably well over a month late on the part of Lopez, all the jobs for teams had mostly been slotted, on top of boras never bending. it was a bad situation situation all around and he was the clear loser.
Dunn is a type B? Good news for his potential suitors.
And Jason Frasor is a Type A*. Makes sense, right?
* – The Toronto front office is probably not very happy about that, since no one is going to give up a first round pick for a middle reliever. Prediction: Frasor will play for the Jays one way or another next season.
Ahhhh, the old “Soriano syndrome” jumps up and bites again!
The Jays gotta want a couple of their bullpen guys back.
Brett Myers is no longer a free agent with an option, he signed a 2 year + option deal with Houston in August
Yeah, there a few things not up to date with the bolding and stuff but it doesn’t affect the numbers.
Texas looks like they will get a haul…
Lee Type A
Guerrero Type A
Molina Type B (the only way Texas would offer him arb)
F Francisco Type A
D Oliver Type A ( I think he has already vested his option though)
4 Supplemental picks plus 3 extra 1st or 2nd rounders in what is considered one of the deepest drafts in the last decade. That is a lot of high end talent to be adding via the draft to a team still with a top 10 farm system and now a huge TV contract
Oliver’s option has already vested, you’re right.
Vlad, I think, would want to come back to Texas, he has a mutual option I think.
Frank Francisco and Bengie should not return, no matter how mediocre the Catching options are in Texas. Lee will probably sign with somebody else.
I think they’ll settle for 2 Extra first/second rounders, and 2 supplemental picks if Texas does decide to let Lee, Francisco, and Molina go. They should use those picks to sign talented Catchers, some OF, and Left Infield. I dropped Elvis Andrus from my team some time ago. He really isn’t that great as hyped by analysts, he’s slugging under .300, he has a below average OBP, and his XBH are almost non-existant. I don’t really think he was worth moving Michael Young over to 3B even though he’s doing a good job there.
Lets not forget that Andrus is 21 and had the most walks as a 21 year old or younger SS since Arky Vaughan in 1923. He played in as many or more games as a 21 year old as names like A Rod, Cal, Yount and Renteria and none of those guys made the list. If it is a league with redrafts annually is fine, but in a long term keeper league you might want to rethink it.
Vlad is probably gone, Molina is definitely gone and Lee and Francisco are most likely gone. As far as who gets picked, I would guess the standard Rangers draft of BPA with tools and ceiling value more than polish with an occasional small SP and a fast moving college arm mixed in.
Orlando Hudson’s crappy play in the season’s last week just earned the Twins a supplemental rounder, woohoo! Good thing he decided to play even though he was hurt.
We couldn’t have offered arb as a Type A, but he’s now the highest-ranked Type B. Win for us there. Unfortunately, Thome winds up just short of Type B status. Spending all of September in LA and getting only 17 PAs probably is to blame for that. Dang. It would’ve been really nice to have Thome and Hudson as Type B to go along with Rauch and Crain, plus Guerrier as a Type A (if we offer him arb, but that’s risky).
Still at least three supplemental rounders next year, assuming Hudson, Crain, and Rauch all decline… with potential for more… not too bad. Maybe something was missed and Thome snuck in as a Type B. Can always hope…
I would think the Twins would want Thome back more than they’d want a supplemental draft pick.
Pavano could be in for a big increase in arbitration if he’s offered. If not, or if he declines, he becomes one of the few best starting pitchers on the market, even though he only gets a year or two because of his injury history.
The Twinkies have nine free agents, and nine arbitration eligibles, on top of a payroll of $ 75 million already. They have some challenges this winter. Like the Jays, they’ve got to want a couple of those relievers back next season.
Why is R.A. Dickey a relief pitcher in the NL? He started 26 of this 27 games and logged over 170 IPs.