After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 26th, 2010. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.
I’m so confused by this… How could Luis Castillo be ranked higher than Jose Reyes?? I know Reyes was injured for most of last year but still…
The person that does this must get drunk while doing this.
Because the Elias Rankings are complete crap.
In a way, I agree. But what would you suggest? I guess a system could easily be developed that includes all stats, seeing as it is just data and a program could run the measurements quite quickly. But what should the rankings be? I wouldn’t mind taking this on…
What is the overall most significant stat, and how would it be weighted? I would have to say OBP.
WAR
How is Martin ranked Higher than Barajas ?
How is Podsednik lower than Kemp ?
How is Heath Bell ranked higher than Samuel Deduno?
Everyone keeps asking “how is player x rated lower than player y”, but I think what people aren’t considering is that the ratings are determined based on the previous two years. And, maybe people aren’t looking at the stats either.
Russell Martin v. Rod Barajas over the past two years (based on the specified criteria):
RM: 975 PA, .249 BA, .350 OBP, 12 HR, 79 RBI, .991 FLD %, 146 Assists
RB: 799 PA, .232 BA, .269 OBP, 36 HR, 118 RBI, .993 FLD %, 82 Assists
With Fielding essentially equal, Martin dominates in PA & OBP, and leads in BA. Martin also dominates in total Assists (meaning he’s logged more game time).
Barajas does take over in HR and RBI (although hopefully RBI are not highly weighted).
Overall, looking at the criteria, 69.8 & 60.2 doesn’t seem offbase at all when looking at these players.
I don’t have the time to do this for every one questioned, but my guess is when you look at the stats for the past two years (emphasis on LOOK AT STATS, and 2 YEARS), you’ll see similar characteristics in the data.