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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Francoeur, Lilly, Loney

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On this date two years ago, instant replay was used for the first time in baseball history, resolving a fair or foul call on an Alex Rodriguez home run against the Rays at Tropicana Field. Third base umpire Brian Runge originally called the ball a homer, and that call stood upon further review. Numerous umpire gaffes have some clamoring for expanded use of instant replay, but so far Major League Baseball hasn't budged. 

Here's a look at what's been written around the baseball blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Ricky Romero, Jon Lester & Yovani Gallardo

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Technically, the Blue Jays entered uncharted territory today. They committed more money ($30.1MM) to Ricky Romero than any team has ever committed to a pitcher with less than two years of service time. But in reality, the extension is all about precedent.

“It’s all about comparables and comparable deals and what else has been done,” Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos said this evening, comparing Romero to Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester and Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo.

Both Lester ($30MM) and Gallardo ($30.1MM) signed deals worth virtually the same amount as Romero’s. The three extensions cover the exact same five seasons (one year of pre-arbitration, three arbitration seasons and one free agent season) and all include $13MM team options for the players’ second free agent years. It would be hard to construct three more similar contracts.

And it would be hard to find three more similar pitchers. If you compare Romero to Lester and Gallardo at the time they signed their respective contracts, you notice striking similarities. All three had made between 52 and 59 starts, posted ERAs between 3.57 and 3.94, allowed between 28 and 33 homers and walked between 134 and 141 batters. All three were selected within the first two rounds of the amateur draft and all three were 24 or 25 when they agreed to their respective deals.

There are differences, of course. Gallardo is right-handed and walks and strikes out more batters than the two lefties. Lester and Gallardo missed time early in their careers, whereas Romero has been fully healthy. Anthopoulos realizes the inherent risk of committing tens of millions to a pitcher, but says Romero has the stuff to improve over the course of the deal.

“You always have concerns when you make a commitment,”  Anthopoulos said. “What the reaction might be on the part of the player, but we see a guy like Ricky continuing to improve. We think he’s going to be an innings eater, we think he’s going to be a horse [and] we think he’s going to continue to evolve.”

There's no question that Lester and Gallardo have continued evolving since signing their contracts. Lester has improved his strikeout rate since signing his extension two offseasons ago. And Gallardo, who signed his contract this April, leads the National League in strikeout rate and is on pace to post the lowest full-season ERA of his career. The Blue Jays hope and believe Romero will develop, but they won’t be disappointed if he keeps pitching the way he has.

“Even if there wasn’t much improvement or any at all,” Anthopoulos said. “We think what he’s doing right now [is good enough]. He’s had a tremendous year for us.”

The deal is designed to save the Blue Jays money in arbitration and keep Romero in Toronto for what the Jays expect to be his prime years. Even though Romero wasn’t going to hit the open market until four winters from now, the contract is all about market value. If Romero pitches like Gallardo and Lester, the deal will be a win and if he misses extended periods of time with injuries it will be a loss. Until then, it’s neither an overpay nor a discount.

Examining Milwaukee’s Rotation

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When the Brewers effectively replaced starters Manny Parra and Braden Looper with Randy Wolf and Doug Davis this offseason, the rotation seemed better-positioned to carry the team than it was last year, when Brewers pitching was largely disappointing. 

Their starters posted a 5.37 ERA a year ago and their pitching staff as a whole allowed more runs than every NL club except the Nationals. GM Doug Melvin discussed trading for Kevin Correia, Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, Brian Bannister and others when the team was in contention last summer. The Brewers even claimed Davis, but they never made a major move. 

This year the Brewers are among the worst teams in the National League in runs allowed (14th) and home runs allowed (15th). Their bullpen has been disappointing, but the starters have done better than last year, combining for a 4.70 ERA. 

Yovani Gallardo has been fantastic so far, with a 3.07 ERA and 11.0 K/9. Wolf's ERA is below 4.00, but he's walking significantly more batters than he did with the Dodgers last year. Like Wolf, Dave Bush has an ERA around 4.00, but is walking far more batters than usual. Meanwhile, hitters are batting .415 on balls they put in play off of Davis. That figure should drop and drag Davis' 7.56 ERA down along with it. Rounding out the rotation, Chris Narveson pitched well against the D'Backs on Sunday, but he is no sure thing.

The Brewers have some options within the organization should their current starters falter. Carlos Villanueva has experience starting and this year he's throwing harder than ever. Villanueva, the team's pitcher of the month in April, is striking out more than a batter per inning. John Axford, ranked 23rd among Brewers prospects by Baseball America before the season, is pitching well in Triple A and could be called upon to replace Villanueva in the 'pen.

The Brewers have a solid but unremarkable rotation at this point, though they're surely hoping to see Wolf and Bush limit their free passes. We can expect Davis to improve and Villanueva could contribute, so the Brewers don't appear as desperate to acquire arms as they were a year ago. It may all be a moot point. If Milwaukee can't turn things around, they may become sellers and Jeff Suppan, Davis and Bush could be trade bait for other clubs.

Largest Contracts By Service Time

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When Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo signed his five year, $30.1MM extension earlier today, it marked the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with less than three years of service time.

Let's look at the richest contracts by service time, in terms of guaranteed money…

Less Than One Year
Position Player: Ryan Braun. Eight years, $45MM
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Four years, $9.5MM.

One To Two Years
Position Player: Chris Young. Five years, $28MM.
Pitcher: Fausto Carmona. Four years, $15MM.

Two To Three Years
Position Player: Hanley Ramirez. Six years, $70MM.
Pitcher: Yovani Gallardo.  Five years, $30.1MM.

Three To Four Years
Position Player: Albert Pujols. Seven years, $100MM. 
Pitcher: Scott Kazmir. Three years, $28.5MM.

Four To Five Years
Position Player: Miguel Cabrera. Eight years, $152.3MM.
Pitcher: Justin Verlander. Five years, $80MM.

Five To Six Years
Position Player: Derek Jeter. Ten years, $189MM.
Pitcher: Jake Peavy. Three years, $52MM. 

Six-plus Years
Position Player: Alex Rodriguez. Ten years, $275MM.
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Seven years, $171MM.

Some thoughts…

  • The most regrettable deals were signed very early in the player's career, Young and Carmona. Might be a lesson in using up those pre-arbitration years before taking the plunge.
  • The largest contract signed by a position player with less than one year of service time after Braun's deal is Evan Longoria's, which will pay him just $17.5MM over six years. Is Braun overpaid, or is Longoria underpaid? I think the answer is clear.
  • Sabathia's four year, $9.5MM deal nearly tripled Roy Halladay's three year, $3.7MM deal with Toronto, which was the previous record for a pitcher with less an a year of service time.
  • One only of the above contracts has expired.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Brewers, Gallardo Agree To Five-Year Extension

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The Brewers agreed to a five-year, $30.1MM extension with pitcher Yovani Gallardo today.  The deal buys out all three arbitration seasons and one free agent year, and has a $13MM club option on another.  SI's Jon Heyman tweets that Gallardo can void the club option by obtaining points based on Cy Young voting, while MLB.com's Adam McCalvy gives no-trade clause details.  The contract is a bit loaded toward the front, with the free agent year costing only $11.25MM.  MLBTR named Gallardo as an extension candidate in January and predicted the contract amount once the agreement was reached this morning.  Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel first reported the agreement, with the AP adding contract details.

Gallardo is an interesting case, as he had two years and 108 days of service time heading into the season but only 320 innings under his belt due to a torn ACL that caused him to miss most of '08.  He would've been arbitration-eligible for the first time after this season.  Coming into the season Gallardo had 22 wins, 325 strikeouts, and a 3.57 career ERA.  McCalvy deduced that Jon Lester was the comparable used, as Gallardo's new deal mirrors that contract and exceeds it by $100K.  Gallardo now appears to own the biggest contract signed by a pitcher with less than three years service time.

Odds & Ends: Chapman, Upton, Mets, Gallardo

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Some links as Spring Training games get started…

Odds & Ends: Orioles, Beckett, Brewers, Giants

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Saturday night linkage..

Discussion: Next Young Pitcher To Be Extended

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One of the game's best young pitchers signed a contract extension yesterday that will take him to his 30th birthday, as the Marlins finally locked up Josh Johnson to a four-year deal worth $39MM. The extension mirrors the deal Kansas City gave Zack Greinke before last season, and is just the latest example of a club willing to assume the risk of a breakdown in exchange for cost certainty.

Paul Maholm, Scott Baker, Ubaldo Jimenez, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, Jon Lester, and James Shields are other young arms who have sacrificed the superior earning power of the arbitration process for financial security in recent years. Who do the readers of MLBTR think the next young pitcher to agree to an extension could be?

Leaving aside the big names like Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernandez, here's a few pitchers who already have, or will soon enter into their arbitration years…

  • Yovani Gallardo – the Brewers' young ace struck out 204 batters and allowed just 150 hits in 185.2 innings last season, and will be arb eligible following the 2010 season.
  • Matt Garza – one of Tampa's many young power arms, Garza has struck out 7.3 batters per nine innings in his career, and has made 62 starts over the last two years. He's arb eligible as a Super Two this offseason.
  • Jair Jurrjens – perhaps the best pitcher no one talks about, Jurrjens led the NL in starts last year and owns a 3.21 career ERA. He'll be up for arbitration after the 2010 season.
  • Wandy Rodriguez – his breakthrough season last year included a 3.06 K/BB ratio and 193 strikeouts in 205.2 innings. Wandy is arb eligible for the second time this offseason after earning $2.6MM in 2009.

Odds & Ends: Brewers, Sizemore, Gomes

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Curious about how untouchable Grady Sizemore is? I had to create a category for him just for this post. In the entire history of MLBTR, no one ever bothered to write any rumors about him…

  • ESPN's Keith Law writes that the Brewers "are closer to noncontention than contention, and trying to prop the playoff window open for another year or two could lead to a miserable bottoming-out not far down the road." He suggests they trade megastar Prince Fielder to help fill other holes, and build the team around Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo.
  • Jim Ingraham of The News Herald believes that the recent trades of Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez have effectively shortened the Indians' window to win with Grady Sizemore. Sizemore's contract runs through 2011 with a dirt cheap option for 2012, but Ingraham says there's "no reason to believe when Sizemore becomes a free agent after the 2012 season he won't leave whatever team he is with and sign a monstrous contract with one of the big-market teams."
  • Jonny Gomes is open to returning to the Reds next season, but says he'll "go where I can get the most at-bats," according to Hal McCoy of The Dayton Daily News. Gomes is making $600K this season and is arbitration eligible next year, so he can expect a hefty raise thanks to his .281/.355/.555 batting line.

Brewers Not Sweating Hart, Gallardo Contracts

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MLB.com's Adam McCalvy has the latest Brewers buzz, after talking with owner Mark Attanasio and GM Doug Melvin.  Here's what Attanasio had to say regarding extension talks with Corey Hart and Yovani Gallardo:

"We've had conversations with both players and agents and it's a two-way street.  Players are tending to look at being on the upswing of their careers and we're in a downtown of the economy. That's their choice.  I'm not saying we're cutting discussions off, because I think we might have discussions with one of those players even as we speak."

Melvin added that talks for the pair are not on the agenda and if he does get something done it'll probably be quietly.  Speaking in general, Melvin noted that deals with hitters are easier to accomplish.  Hart is under team control through 2011, while Gallardo is Brewers property through 2013.

Ticket sales are up for the Brewers this year, and Attanasio indicated financial flexibility to make midseason "adjustments."  I'd say starting pitching is the most likely need.

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