The Brewers are five games under .500, 7.5 games back in the NL Central. We're not writing them off, but it's time for the "if they become sellers" treatment.
The big question is whether the Brewers would entertain offers for Prince Fielder if they're out of contention in July. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had a good look at the situation yesterday – perhaps they'd find more suitors in the offseason, and Adrian Gonzalez's potential availability would be a complication. If Fielder does hit the market, I expect a trade return that can help the Brewers significantly in 2011. That might mean two starters they can plug directly into the rotation. A Fielder trade would probably save the Brewers decent money, which could go toward free agents.
Corey Hart would be an interesting trade candidate. He's playing at a similar level to last year, and the Brewers might not want to give him a raise on this year's $4.8MM salary.
A slew of middling Brewers veterans would probably be made available: Jeff Suppan, Trevor Hoffman, David Riske, Doug Davis, Gregg Zaun, Dave Bush, Craig Counsell, Jody Gerut, Claudio Vargas, and Jim Edmonds. The Brewers' goal would be to save as much money as possible.
Pitching
I really think that the Brewers will try to sell Prince at the deadline…but I really just don’t see them getting a return as good as two starting pitchers they can plug in their rotation next year.
There just aren’t enough buyers with that kind of prospects. If he does get traded, I believe it will be to the Atlanta Braves, perhaps a package including Kris Medlen and one of their young high upside pitchers.
kris medlen+mike minor+either julio teheran/arodys vizcaino
The braves can have him right now for Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen.
we will give you tommy hanson, kris medlen, julio teheran, freddy freeman, mike minor and randall delgado….. you can have all those players, for the piddly little price of prince fielder and ryan braun
throw in heyward and you have a deal 🙂
uhh…no that would defeat the purpose lol…we need a LF, and we dont need to make an opening in RF….so in conclusion, please give us ryan braun immediatly 🙂
So we’ll ship you Corey Hart also!
Do the Brewers have someone to take over at first already in the minors? If not I’d imagine Freeman would be part of the deal, maybe him and a high upside pitcher that’s close to MLB ready would be enough to headline.
As a Reds fan, I’d love to see Prince leave the NLC.
ha you and me both, it would great now if albert signed else where instead of the cards but hey i can dream
I can’t wait for Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman to get out too. I think Lance has like 50 Career Home Runs against the Reds.
Oh man do I wish Pujols would sign somewhere besides StL. That would be awesome…
Fielder should stay though! =P
What about fielder to the Blue Jays for two of there better younger pitchers. Cecil and rzepczinski? Fielder has Toronto connections, The Blue Jays will spend money when they think they can be competitive. Bringing in Fielder to add to Wells, Lind, Hill, Snider, Wallace, hecheverria, and the pitching they will still have could make them a contender as soon as next year.
Fielder has Toronto connections via his father, Cecil. That’s about the biggest possible negative you could trot out. I’d rather try to sell Marilyn Manson tickets to the Pope than try to sell the “dear old dad” hometown connection to Prince.
An interesting deadline deal would be trading Prince to the Nats for Adam Dunn (and his expiring contract with the reasonable expectation that he could be extended) as well as Jordan Zimmerman (a WI native) and a handful of low to mid-level prospects. Thoughts?
Don’t see it happening. He’s on the DL right now anyways. Brewers wouldn’t want someone prone to injuries and probably would want a better pitcher in return.
That would be a terrible trade. The Brewers need quality starting pitching. Zimmerman doesn’t look like anything special, and why would they bother trading for Dunn when they could possibly sign him in the off-season if they wanted him?
It would come down to additional prospects in this scenario obviously. The
idea would be to get Dunn interested in Milwaukee, or at least to evaluate
whether or not he would be a fit in the clubhouse etc. The brewers have no
prospect with the ability to step in and replace prince’s production
(unless Gamel has a breakout year). Just throwing ideas out there…
It would come down to additional prospects in this scenario obviously. The
idea would be to get Dunn interested in Milwaukee, or at least to evaluate
whether or not he would be a fit in the clubhouse etc. The brewers have no
prospect with the ability to step in and replace prince’s production
(unless Gamel has a breakout year). Just throwing ideas out there…
That would be a terrible trade. The Brewers need quality starting pitching. Zimmerman doesn’t look like anything special, and why would they bother trading for Dunn when they could possibly sign him in the off-season if they wanted him?
Dunn’s nickname, the big donkey, is also an appropriate tag for this proposal. One big donkey.
I would think Fielder lands in either Seatle or San Fransico. I would think to San Fran for a combination of Madison Bumgarner/Buster Posey/and Tim Alderson.
Bumgarner, alright. Any other pitching? We need a lot of it. A LOT. Posey would be good, but we’ve got a plethora of catching in the minors, with Lucroy looking like he’s ready to come up next season. As for Tim Alderson… Didn’t he get traded to the Pirates last year in the Freddy Sanchez deal?
Bumgarner, alright. Any other pitching? We need a lot of it. A LOT. Posey would be good, but we’ve got a plethora of catching in the minors, with Lucroy looking like he’s ready to come up next season. As for Tim Alderson… Didn’t he get traded to the Pirates last year in the Freddy Sanchez deal?
I would think Fielder lands in either Seatle or San Fransico. I would think to San Fran for a combination of Madison Bumgarner/Buster Posey/and Tim Alderson.
I’ll begin by pointing out the veterans that aren’t going to be traded: Dave Bush, Craig Counsell, Jody Gerut, and Claudio Vargas. They are all too valuable right now to our team to trade (Exceptions being maybe Gerut and Vargas).
Now, I could see Prince going to the Braves. They’re really the only team that could provide us with the pitching we need. San Francisco can’t do that (Unless we get Cain), Seattle can’t even get enough pitching for themselves. The Red Sox only have Bucholz, and I’m not sure they’d trade him. The Blue Jays could work for Cecil and Rzepczinski, with a few others thrown in (a few prospect arms, maybe a prospect OFer). A good scenario, IMO, would be Prince to the Braves for Medlen, Minor, Teheran, Michael Dunn, and Jordan Schaefer (Feel free to include a few veterans like Suppan and Davis in that trade).
Then trade Corey Hart and a mix of veterans (Hoffman, Edmonds, whoever they’ll take) for a few prospects, one of which being a first baseman who could play soon. Until then, Gamel could play first, or we could call up Stefan Wilson to play first for a while.
medlen,minor,teheran,dunn and schafer….that is pretty much the same type of package we gave up for tex, and we had him for almost 2 seasons…you will not get that type of package for fielder, considering he is only signed through the end of the year and we have absolutely not shot at resigning him…as i said, if the braves do get him it would be something like this
medlen+schafer/minor+teheran/vizcaino
anything more than that, and i would just pass and let you guys collect some draft picks
Seattle can’t get enough pitching for themselves?
The Mariners have a team ERA of about 3.50 and once Bedard returns will have the best starting rotation in baseball, period. Our number 3 starter (Doug Fister) has stats comparable to that of Roy Halladay (minus the strikeouts). Lee/Hernandez is a phnemoninal one-two punch (too bad it wont be for longer than this season). Aardsma is one of the best closers in the league and both our set-up guys throw 97+ mph on a bad day. We have pitching coming out our ass and a few dispensable starters. Look for Jason Vargas, Ian Snell, or even Eric Bedard and Cliff Lee to end up in a big time trade by July.
Of course Ian Snell is going to get traded, because he’s a horrible pitcher. Eric Bedard is injury prone. So, you’ve disproven my theory about them not having enough pitching for themselves. Fine, what would you give us in a Fielder trade? We would need a lot of pitching (starters, please), and preferably under the age of 27. You would pretty much have to send us all of your top pitching prospects, cause there’s no way we’d accept Snell or Bedard in a trade for Prince. Lee, probably not either, since we won’t be able to sign him long-term (hence why would be trading Prince). So, list off some of the pitching that is “coming out our ass” that you would be willing to trade who aren’t named Snell, Bedard, or Lee.
Fielder isn’t going anywhere for several reasons. One, there isn’t really a market for him. Most of the teams out there that desperately need a bat and have an opening either at 1B or DH, are not locks to be able to sign him to a long term deal either. So they’d basically be in the same boat as the Brewers. None of those teams are going to fork over top of the line young pitching. Boston is the exception but I don’t think they’d give up 2 guys that would be in the Brewer rotation in 2011. Plus if they get Gonzales, there out of the Fielder market.
The second reason is that the Brewers are much closer to having some real pitching prospects of their own reach the majors and aren’t as desperate as some think. Amaury Rivas has been as impressive as any pitcher in AA so far this season with an 0.90 ERA in 5 starts. The Brewers also have close to $30 million in contracts coming off the books after this year. They could buy another pitcher in the offseason to go with Gallardo and Wolf, and keep Fielder one more year and be realistic contenders.
Finally, Fielder is currently hitting .234/.368/.340 with 2 HR and 9 RBI. Most of the projections of what it will take to sign him long term are based on his 09 numbers of .299/.412/.602 with 46 HR and 141 RBI. Now it’s likely he will get hot at some point, but realistically he’s not reaching those numbers this year. He’s probably going to end up 2010 with a year like he had in 2008, .276/.372/.507, with 34 HR and 102. Those are nice numbers, but not stratospheric and he’s not going to be able to command $25 million a season with 2 of his previous 3 seasons being only very good, not great. If that happens, his asking price might meet the Brewer offering price.
Amaury Rivas is pretty good, but I don’t see him being a starter. The guys in our Minors that are likely to be starters would be Arnett, Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Scarpetta, Rogers, and maybe Jeffress if he can get his crap together.
I agree about Fielder’s production. He won’t be like he was last year, but I also don’t think he’ll be like he was in ’08. I guarantee he’ll hit .285 or higher. I’d plug him in for about 40 HRs. His asking price might already meet the Brewers offering price. Scott Boras, on the other hand, is asking for $25MM+ a year. Brewers will not be re-signing him, as much as I want them to.
Amaury Rivas is pretty good, but I don’t see him being a starter. The guys in our Minors that are likely to be starters would be Arnett, Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Scarpetta, Rogers, and maybe Jeffress if he can get his crap together.
I agree about Fielder’s production. He won’t be like he was last year, but I also don’t think he’ll be like he was in ’08. I guarantee he’ll hit .285 or higher. I’d plug him in for about 40 HRs. His asking price might already meet the Brewers offering price. Scott Boras, on the other hand, is asking for $25MM+ a year. Brewers will not be re-signing him, as much as I want them to.
There’s no reason to be concerned about Fielder’s production. He is a notoriously slow starter over his entire career (check out his career power numbers April). In 2009, for example, he was hitting .234 with 3 HR at the beginning of May.
There’s no reason to be concerned about Fielder’s production. He is a notoriously slow starter over his entire career (check out his career power numbers April). In 2009, for example, he was hitting .234 with 3 HR at the beginning of May.
Fielder isn’t going anywhere for several reasons. One, there isn’t really a market for him. Most of the teams out there that desperately need a bat and have an opening either at 1B or DH, are not locks to be able to sign him to a long term deal either. So they’d basically be in the same boat as the Brewers. None of those teams are going to fork over top of the line young pitching. Boston is the exception but I don’t think they’d give up 2 guys that would be in the Brewer rotation in 2011. Plus if they get Gonzales, there out of the Fielder market.
The second reason is that the Brewers are much closer to having some real pitching prospects of their own reach the majors and aren’t as desperate as some think. Amaury Rivas has been as impressive as any pitcher in AA so far this season with an 0.90 ERA in 5 starts. The Brewers also have close to $30 million in contracts coming off the books after this year. They could buy another pitcher in the offseason to go with Gallardo and Wolf, and keep Fielder one more year and be realistic contenders.
Finally, Fielder is currently hitting .234/.368/.340 with 2 HR and 9 RBI. Most of the projections of what it will take to sign him long term are based on his 09 numbers of .299/.412/.602 with 46 HR and 141 RBI. Now it’s likely he will get hot at some point, but realistically he’s not reaching those numbers this year. He’s probably going to end up 2010 with a year like he had in 2008, .276/.372/.507, with 34 HR and 102. Those are nice numbers, but not stratospheric and he’s not going to be able to command $25 million a season with 2 of his previous 3 seasons being only very good, not great. If that happens, his asking price might meet the Brewer offering price.
Even as a die hard brewers fan, I wouldn’t mind seeing Fielder shipped off this season. If fielder can go on a tear before the break, his stock will be higher than it ever will be again. Teams like the braves, m’s or giants may be willing to overpay for him. I would love a trade with the giants, bring back 2 of matt cain, buster posey, and baumgardner, plus others. Its becoming quite obvious that prince isnt going to resign with the brewers, so why not unload him now?
are you crazy? a strait up deal of matt cain for prince would be pretty fair considering the contract extension cain just signed…maybe cain plus a b level prospect
Even as a die hard brewers fan, I wouldn’t mind seeing Fielder shipped off this season. If fielder can go on a tear before the break, his stock will be higher than it ever will be again. Teams like the braves, m’s or giants may be willing to overpay for him. I would love a trade with the giants, bring back 2 of matt cain, buster posey, and baumgardner, plus others. Its becoming quite obvious that prince isnt going to resign with the brewers, so why not unload him now?
It would be so great if the Brewers could get some value out of a Hart deal. He just frustrates me in the field and at bat. In the field he takes bizarre confused routes to fly balls and at bat he’s prone to stretches where he displays zero pitch recognition on breaking balls or ability to lay off sliders off the plate down and away.
He frustrates me at-bat in much the same way that Geoff Jenkins did post all-star season. I’m afraid he fits the profile of a guy that should have upside but turns into a middling frustration.
Why is everyone posting rumors that send Prince to Atl but don’t include Freeman coming back to be the 1B of the future? Do Milwaukee fans not like Freddie? Anyway isn’t Atlanta kinda tight for money too? I think they’ve learned their lesson in trading for big name 1B to try to make a run, i.e. Teix. I don’t really see the Giants giving up Cain or Posey in a trade for Prince, so I don’t see the fit there. The Red Sox only have Buch and are known to want A-Gon more and I don’t see them making a big enough offer to get Price out of Milwaukee. Honestly I see Fielder staying put this year and dealt next season if the Brewers are out of contention at the deadline.
If the Texiera to ATL trade is a barometer I think the O’s have a fighting chance and will certainly be willing to “mortgage the farm” to get him.
Two decent prospects and 2 low level prospects. Tillman, Arrietta, Spoone, Johnson, Britton and anyone but Matusz under 30 in the Major league rotation is tradeable. If the Brewers need a first baseman to replenish the ranks theyve got Snyder and Hughes that are decent 1b prospects. Either Josh Bell or Tyler Henson for a sweetener.
As for Major league guys I don’t think the O’s are married to anyone but Markakis, Weiters and Jones so they could take their pick of mediocre Major league talent.
Andy Mcphail knows hes got to get Fielder or Gonzales to compete in the east so they will definitely be a player for both. Whoever wants their unproven pitching prospects the most will end up with the deal.
I think the O’s would be very tough to beat if they got Prince or A-Gon, but the only way the Teix to ATL trade can be a barometer is if a deal happens this season, and why would the O’s trade for one of those two this year?