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NL Central Notes: Fielder, Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates

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The Brewers have a 99.8% chance of going to the postseason and the Cardinals have a 4.5% chance of advancing, according to Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds report. Meanwhile, the Astros, Cubs and Pirates are setting themselves up for top ten picks in next year's draft. Here's the latest from the NL Central…

Prince Fielder: ’11 ‘Probably’ Last Year With Brewers

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It's not the first time someone has suggested the Brewers might soon be looking for a new first baseman. But it's the clearest indication yet that Prince Fielder will leave Milwaukee this offseason. The free agent-to-be himself publicly conceded that this is likely his final season with the Brewers in an interview with TBS (link at SI.com).

"I'm signed for this year, but being real about it, it is probably the last year," Fielder told TBS.

The Scott Boras client figures to be one of the most sought-after free agents of the offseason. Still just 27, Fielder began the day with a .294/.407/.543 line and 32 homers. He'll cost a top draft pick, not that that will deter serious suitors. I examined the market for Fielder and fellow free agent Albert Pujols a week ago.

Where The Market For Pujols & Fielder Stands

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With three weeks to go in the regular season, it’s clear that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will be the most tempting free agents on the market this offseason. With all due respect to Jose Reyes, C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson, the two first basemen are likely to command the biggest free agent contracts of the winter.  

Prince Pujols

Pujols, 31, is having the worst season of his career in terms of average (.293), on-base percentage (.366) and slugging percentage (.549), but the three-time MVP leads the National League in homers and is tenth in OPS. Not bad for an off-year.

Fielder has a .292/.405/.542 line with 31 homers and a league-leading 108 runs batted in. Plus, he’s still just 27 years old. Like Pujols, Fielder will cost a top draft pick, but teams are prepared to surrender those picks for elite production.

Not every team needs a first baseman and not every team can afford a nine-figure contract for a single player, regardless of how productive he is. Heading into the season, we knew that the market for Fielder and Pujols would be limited to half of the teams in baseball at the absolute best. Now that we’re 140 games into the season, we have a sense of which clubs have a need at first base and which ones don’t. 

Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes provided a reason why each MLB team could back away from Fielder, who has always seemed more likely to test free agency than Pujols. At this point, Pujols must also want to see what’s out there and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says he’s ready for his franchise player to test the market.

Fielder’s representative, Scott Boras, and Pujols’ representative, Dan Lozano, have no doubt started sizing the first base market already. Here’s how it looks: 

Five Teams Likely To Have Interest

The Cardinals want Pujols back, so we’ll hear about them until he signs. Similarly, the Brewers will likely express some interest in bringing Fielder back, though their chances of re-signing him have never seemed particularly good.

The new Cubs general manager could grab some headlines by signing Pujols or Fielder away from a division rival and replacing free agent Carlos Pena with a more complete player. The Rangers, who have Michael Young and Mike Napoli in the mix at first base, have been aggressive under new ownership, signing Adrian Beltre and pursuing Cliff Lee.

Despite the financial troubles of owner Frank McCourt, we can’t rule out the Dodgers. James Loney has been doing his best to avoid the non-tender that once seemed inevitable, but his torrid August won’t make GM Ned Colletti forget about Pujols and Fielder.

Ten Teams The Agents Would Do Well To Engage

The Yankees and Red Sox already have elite first basemen, so Lozano and Boras would have to sell the teams (and potentially their clients) on DH roles. Both clubs will have more pressing needs to address, but you can’t rule out either, so prepare to hear about Boston and New York in connection with the two first basemen.

Like the Cubs, the Orioles will likely have a new general manager in town. That person will have to decide whether it’s worth spending big instead of relying on in-house options like Luke Scott, Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds. The Mariners are in a similar situation to the Orioles in that they don’t appear poised to contend in 2012 and have internal options, namely Justin Smoak and Mike Carp.

Blue Jays fans, prepare yourselves for a November MLBTR headline that reads something like this: ‘Blue Jays Interested In Fielder, Pujols.’ Toronto’s front office is tight-lipped about free agent moves, so many available players get linked to the Jays, even when the club’s interest is tepid. The Jays have money and would be a better team with an elite first baseman, so that headline may be worth clicking on.

The Angels have two first basemen (Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo) and five outfielders (Peter Bourjos, Mike Trout, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu) for five total spots. Unless GM Tony Reagins gets really creative on the trade market, I don’t see much room at first or DH.

The same could be said about the Nationals, who have Mike Morse and Adam LaRoche at first base, but let’s not rule Washington out. Their connection with Boras has been well-documented and they may view Pujols and Fielder as the kind of player who could push them into contention (and push Morse to the outfield).

Though there may be some rumblings about the Marlins’ potential interest, it’s hard to imagine them coming through with the winning bid, even as they head into a new ballpark. Gaby Sanchez’s presence further lessens the likelihood of a deal, but both agents could have interest in engaging Florida just in case.

The D’Backs and Giants are sleepers in the Pujols-Fielder sweepstakes. The NL West rivals could both use a boost at first base (only four clubs have gotten a lower OPS from their first basemen this year), but both have incumbents at the position. Would it be that hard to find another role for Paul Goldschmidt? How about relegating Aubrey Huff to the bench and moving Brandon Belt to the outfield? These are question the D’Backs and Giants could ask themselves this offseason. 

15 Teams That Don’t Appear To Be Fits

The Rays, Indians, Pirates, Padres and Athletics don’t have the money to get involved (though the latter three teams rank 28th, 29th and 30th in OPS at first base this year).

It’s hard to imagine Pujols or Fielder signing with an AL Central club, since the Tigers, White Sox, Twins and Royals already have first basemen and/or DHs in place. That leaves the Rockies, Astros, Reds, Braves, Mets and Phillies, who all have established first basemen and bigger offseason needs.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Cafardo’s Latest: Fielder, Nathan, Hart, Mauer

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One major league source told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that a lot of lefty relievers were blocked by teams and never got through waivers in August.  The price tag on most of them was steep so most teams bit the bullet and decided to go with what they had.  The Giants were one of those clubs as GM Brian Sabean opted to stick with Javy Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt.  Here are some other highlights from Cafardo's column..

  • The Mariners re-upped GM Jack Zduriencik this week and Cafardo wonders if Seattle will be in the mix with Prince Fielder this offseason, even though they already have Justin Smoak at first.  It's hard to predict how much the M's will be willing to spend and it's possible that the four-year, $36MM deal given to Chone Figgins in December 2009 could make ownership gun-shy.
  • The Twins didn’t seem to have anything major working for Joe Nathan at the deadline, but they asked him to waive his trade-veto rights just in case and Nathan declined.  Nathan's future with the club is uncertain as he heads into free agency but he has a shot at staying if he accepts a hometown discount.  It's unlikely that the Twins will pick up his $12MM option this winter.  The club can buy him out for just $2MM.
  • Cafardo writes that Brewers rightfielder Corey Hart would fit nicely with the Red Sox.  However, it seems likely that they'll lose Fielder this summer so they probably won't entertain a deal involving Hart. 
  • Twins GM Bill Smith says that Joe Mauer will be a catcher for the foreseeable future, but he continues to leave the door open for a possible shift of positions down the road.  There are also no plans for the Giants to move Buster Posey elsewhere, according to Sabean.

Rosenthal On Papelbon, Yankees, Fielder, Pujols

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A Marlins shakeup is looming and the focus is on the team's minor league system, says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in this week's edition of Full Count.  Jim Fleming, the vice president of player development and scouting, has informed his staff that he will be reassigned.  The club's revenues will grow once they move into their new stadium but they still need to do a better job of producing homegrown talent.  Let's take a look at some more highlights from Full Count..

  • The Red Sox are reluctant to give lucrative long-term contracts to closers, but with Jonathan Papelbon they might not be able to resist.  Papelbon will want an increase from his $12MM salary, perhaps something closer to Mariano Rivera's $15MM average yearly pay.  It's possible that no team will want to go there but Rivera has just one year left on his deal and Rafael Soriano hardly looks like the heir to Mo's throne.  Rosenthal wonders aloud if the Yankees would jump in and offer Papelbon a backloaded deal to take over as closer.
  • The Rangers would seem to be an obvious suitor for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, especially in light of Mitch Moreland's recent struggles.  Texas will have to spend on pitching if they lose C.J. Wilson in free agency and they might prefer to keep both their payroll and roster flexible.  Josh Hamilton is only one year away from free agency and Ian Kinsler is only two years away. 
  • The sale of the Astros to Jim Crane is not yet official and some in baseball believe that he will not be approved as owner.  Others, however, view a deal as inevitable.  Current owner Drayton McLane wants out and Crane is offering a fair price for the club.  Perhaps most importantly, there does not appear to be any other bidders.  McLane has been loyal to the commissioner's office and he will want to see that loyalty reciprocated.

Rosenthal On Kubel, Carroll, Ramirez, Fielder, Pujols

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Let's take a look at the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • The free agent market for outfielders is rather thin and after Carlos Beltran, Jason Kubel might be the next most attractive option.  Rosenthal floats the idea of Kubel going to a more hitter-friendly park, such as Fenway where he can replace a departing J.D. Drew.  The Twins want to re-sign Kubel, but he intends to test the market.
  • Veteran Jamey Carroll is on waivers and almost certain to be claimed.  The Dodgers might be more open to dealing Carroll than they were before the July 31st deadline.  Justin Sellers has played well, Dee Gordon should be back soon, and Ivan DeJesus is a candidate for promotion.  The Brewers had interest in him before the trade deadline but they've since acquired Jerry Hairston Jr. and Rickie Weeks will return to action soon.
  • Aramis Ramirez has cleared waivers but he'll remain with the Cubs this month.  His agent, Paul Kinzer, told Rosenthal in July that his client might be open to waiving his no-trade clause in August, but he's since turned red hot and will play it out in Chicago.  He'll be a very interesting decision for the Cubs' next GM and maybe an interesting free agent.
  • Rosenthal says that the choice between Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder is no longer obvious.  Fielder has had the better season and he's nearly four-and-a-half years younger than Pujols.  Still, Pujols has 31 homers and a slugging percentage that's just ten points lower.  The big question for both men is how will they look three years and five years from now.

Nationals Don’t Intend To Pursue Prince Fielder

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The Nationals don't intend to go after Prince Fielder once he reaches free agency, a team source told MLB.com's Bill Ladson.  The primary reason is that first basemen Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche are already under team control for 2012.  Instead, the Nats may be more focused on finding a center fielder and a leadoff hitter.

Earlier this month Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com expressed similar feelings about the Nationals sitting out the Fielder bidding.  He provided additional reasons: GM Mike Rizzo loves defense at first base, and the team might need to earmark money for a future Ryan Zimmerman extension.

Now, as I mentioned on Monday, having LaRoche under contract for a year at $8MM wouldn't be a huge roadblock if the Nationals wanted Fielder, and Morse could play left field.  Scott Boras has been cozy with Rizzo in recent years, and the agent will probably try his damnedest to get them involved on Fielder.  However, if the two beat writers are correct and the Nationals don't get involved, that's one less team capable of doing a $150MM+ contract in a market that probably already excludes the Red Sox, Yankees, and many others.

Why Your Team Won’t Sign Prince Fielder

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Scott Boras isn't likely to send client Prince Fielder to play for the St. Paul Saints next year; obviously he'll wind up with one of baseball's 30 teams.  Still, there are good reasons for every single team not to give Fielder the megadeal he's expected to seek.

  • Orioles: The Orioles could probably fit in Prince's salary without raising payroll, but would a new GM jump in with a $100MM+ commitment for a team that isn't expected to compete in 2012?  Is there any way they'd win the bidding on a top Boras client?  Fielder is not a good long-term signing for the Orioles, who may prefer to give Chris Davis a full season at first base if he continues to avoid labrum surgery.  All that said, they will probably at least be in the mix.
  • Red Sox: This could only work if Fielder replaces David Ortiz as the team's full-time DH, given the presence of Adrian Gonzalez at first.  The Sox clearly have bigger concerns and are highly unlikely to make Fielder the game's first $100MM DH.
  • Yankees: To open up first base, the Yanks would have to trade Mark Teixeira despite his full no-trade clause.  Fielder is not clearly better, so don't expect that manuever.  While DH is technically possible, it's wise to leave that spot open for Alex Rodriguez, who is under contract through 2017.  Plus, starting pitching will be a more immediate concern than offense.
  • Rays: Something tells me they won't have Fielder taking up half their payroll.
  • Blue Jays: I expect the first base and DH spots to be filled by Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion again; they'd earn a total of $8.5MM next year.  However, Lind has been disappointing and the Blue Jays could certainly afford Fielder, if you'd like to dream on it.
  • White Sox: Paul Konerko is locked in through 2013; Adam Dunn through 2014.  In theory Dunn could be dumped, but not for the purpose of Kenny Williams oddly cozying up to Boras for a massive Fielder contract.
  • Indians: They don't have the payroll space for it, nor does signing Fielder fit with their long-term plan.
  • Tigers: Miguel Cabrera will occupy first base through 2015, while DH Victor Martinez is signed through 2014.
  • Royals: Their future is with Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler.
  • Twins: They have to be worried about Justin Morneau and could have an open DH spot this offseason.  Technically the Twins could afford Fielder without raising payroll, but they have needs all over the place and this would not be their style.
  • Angels: Though he missed all of 2011, Boras client Kendrys Morales should be in the first base mix next year, as well as Mark Trumbo.  Bobby Abreu is under contract for '12 as the DH.  While the Angels could afford Fielder, it is tough to see Arte Moreno winning that bid.  A pursuit of Aramis Ramirez to play third base is more reasonable.
  • Athletics: I imagine they'd like to see Brandon Allen and Daric Barton compete for first base next year, with a cheap free agent DH signing.  Fielder would be hard to fit into the payroll, and the team's outfield uncertainty will likely be a big focus.
  • Mariners: The Ms would probably like to see Justin Smoak and Mike Carp in their regular lineup.  I think they could afford Fielder, but I can't see them making that DH investment.
  • Rangers: Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli, and Michael Young will all be back next year unless someone is traded.  With a big arbitration class, the Rangers would need to raise payroll just to re-sign C.J. Wilson or sign a comparable starter, so I don't think Fielder fits in financially either.
  • Braves: They're surely content with Rookie of the Year contender Freddie Freeman.
  • Marlins: Gaby Sanchez has this spot locked down on the cheap.
  • Mets: Even with a payroll reduction the Mets should have some money to burn, but not Fielder money while embroiled in a huge lawsuit.  Ike Davis' status is uncertain, but that's not going to push the Mets to Fielder.
  • Phillies: Ryan Howard is signed through 2016.
  • Nationals: An $8MM Adam LaRoche is not a huge roadblock to Fielder, and Boras will certainly try to get the Nationals involved.  While Mike Morse could move to left field, a big extension for Ryan Zimmerman could be preferable to Washington.
  • Cubs: Boras needs to get the Cubs involved in the Fielder bidding.  While the Cubs could afford him, their needs for starting pitching and perhaps a third baseman should be equally pressing. The team's new GM will have alternatives in Carlos Pena, Michael Cuddyer, and Albert Pujols.
  • Reds: They've got Joey Votto through 2013, plus a lack of payroll space if Brandon Phillips is retained.
  • Astros: Brett Wallace and Carlos Lee have their flaws, and Jonathan Singleton is a ways off, but it'd be a radical departure for the Astros to go after Fielder.
  • Brewers: Last year, Fielder reportedly turned down an offer from the Brewers that was similar to Howard's five-year, $125MM deal.  Since then the Brewers locked up Ryan Braun through 2020, so they might not be able to make that offer again even if Prince is interested.
  • Pirates: The Pirates could sign Fielder and still have one of the game's smallest payrolls.  I don't think GM Neal Huntington has committed even $20MM total to a player in his tenure, and it'd cost that much for one year of Fielder.  It just doesn't seem like his style, but if ownership decides that the team is close they do technically have the need and payroll space.  
  • Cardinals: It's difficult to see Fielder as anything more than a long shot Plan C for the Cards.  If Pujols signs elsewhere while Fielder is still on the market, and the idea of re-signing Lance Berkman to play first base doesn't pan out either, I guess the Cardinals could look into Fielder.
  • Diamondbacks: I think they could afford him, but they have Paul Goldschmidt as their future.
  • Rockies: They don't have the money for it, and Todd Helton is under contract through 2013.
  • Dodgers: They'll have an opening, but payroll flexibility is the question.  Attendance and payroll will be down, and without a new owner in place by year's end the Dodgers won't be able to bid for Fielder.
  • Padres: Anthony Rizzo struggled as a rookie, but Jed Hoyer isn't jumping into the Fielder bidding.
  • Giants: Aubrey Huff is only under contract through 2012, but signing Fielder would make Brandon Belt a permanent outfielder.  Maybe that could work, but payroll flexibility will be very limited.  The focus may be on signing Tim Lincecum and finding a shortstop and an outfielder or two.

Nationals Notes: Pudge, Flores, Wang, Fielder

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Down 4-2 in the bottom of the ninth last night, the Nats rallied back to tie the game against Phillies closer Ryan Madson and then won it on Ryan Zimmerman's walkoff grand slam.  Here's the latest from Washington as the Nationals continue their series with the first-place Phils….

  • Ivan Rodriguez's chances of returning to Washington next season depend on Jesus Flores' ability to stick as the Nats' backup catcher, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson.  Manager Davey Johnson called Rodriguez "a valuable asset" who he'd like to see back in 2012, but "it's also a valuable time for Flores to try to regain the status that he had a couple of years ago. That will weigh more than Pudge coming back. Everybody knows what Pudge can do."
  • Johnson is also interested in seeing Chien-Ming Wang pitch for the Nationals in 2012, reports Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com.  Wang is finally back after two injury-plagued years, and Johnson hopes his club's patience with Wang would help convince him to return next season.  I think a key for Wang this offseason will be to look for a team who can give him a clear path to a starting job, whereas in Washington he would be one of "seven or eight options" for the Nats' rotation in Spring Training. 
  • There are some similarities between how the Phillies built their World Series-caliber team and how the Nationals are trying to turn themselves into contenders, writes The Washington Post's Dave Sheinin.
  • Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington doesn't think the Nationals will be one of the teams bidding on Prince Fielder this winter.  Zuckerman notes that the Nats already have Mike Morse and Adam LaRoche under contract next season, plus GM Mike Rizzo "loves defense at 1B."  Also, Zuckerman says that between Jayson Werth's contract and a possible extension for Zimmerman, Washington won't be able to afford Fielder.  (Both Twitter links)

AL East Notes: Bundy, Cervelli, Upton, Red Sox

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Some news from the AL East…

  • The Orioles have begun negotiations with fourth-overall draft pick Dylan Bundy, reports Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.  Denver Bundy, Dylan's father and also part of his representation team from BBI Sports Group, said today's meeting was "a feeling out process" and the two sides would hopefully discuss figures at their next session on August 10.
  • The Yankees and Pirates almost agreed to a deal that would've seen Francisco Cervelli go to Pittsburgh in exchange for right-hander Brad Lincoln, reports George A. King of the New York Post.  King hears from a Pirates source that the trade "was very close but [the teams] couldn’t agree on the value of the players."  Such a move would have given the Yankees room to call up Jesus Montero as both a backup catcher and as a potential DH platoon partner for Jorge Posada.  Brian Cashman said Montero could potentially be called up once the rosters expand in September.
  • The trade deadline has passed and B.J. Upton is still wearing a Rays uniform, so Steve Slowinski of the DRaysBay blog is already thinking about what a potential Upton extension might cost Tampa Bay.
  • With the Red Sox facing a crunch of prospects for 40-man roster spots this winter, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal wasn't surprised that the Sox moved three of those on-the-bubble prospects in the Erik Bedard trade.  Boston would've risked losing Chih-Hsien Chiang, Tim Federowicz, and Stephen Fife for nothing in the Rule 5 draft had the club not been able to send Chiang to the Mariners and Federowicz/Fife to the Dodgers.
  • By acquiring two first basemen (Chris Davis and prospect Aaron Baker) from their deadline deals, the Orioles appear to be taking themselves out of the Prince Fielder sweepstakes this winter, writes Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun.  I respectfully disagree with Schmuck — if the O's have a chance at Fielder, they won't hesitate to sign him for the sake of Davis (who has struggled against lefties at the Major League level) or a minor prospect like Baker.  Davis could also be moved into a DH role, or moved to third base while Mark Reynolds become the designated hitter.
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