With three weeks to go in the regular season, it’s clear that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will be the most tempting free agents on the market this offseason. With all due respect to Jose Reyes, C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson, the two first basemen are likely to command the biggest free agent contracts of the winter.
Pujols, 31, is having the worst season of his career in terms of average (.293), on-base percentage (.366) and slugging percentage (.549), but the three-time MVP leads the National League in homers and is tenth in OPS. Not bad for an off-year.
Fielder has a .292/.405/.542 line with 31 homers and a league-leading 108 runs batted in. Plus, he’s still just 27 years old. Like Pujols, Fielder will cost a top draft pick, but teams are prepared to surrender those picks for elite production.
Not every team needs a first baseman and not every team can afford a nine-figure contract for a single player, regardless of how productive he is. Heading into the season, we knew that the market for Fielder and Pujols would be limited to half of the teams in baseball at the absolute best. Now that we’re 140 games into the season, we have a sense of which clubs have a need at first base and which ones don’t.
Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes provided a reason why each MLB team could back away from Fielder, who has always seemed more likely to test free agency than Pujols. At this point, Pujols must also want to see what’s out there and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says he’s ready for his franchise player to test the market.
Fielder’s representative, Scott Boras, and Pujols’ representative, Dan Lozano, have no doubt started sizing the first base market already. Here’s how it looks:
Five Teams Likely To Have Interest
The Cardinals want Pujols back, so we’ll hear about them until he signs. Similarly, the Brewers will likely express some interest in bringing Fielder back, though their chances of re-signing him have never seemed particularly good.
The new Cubs general manager could grab some headlines by signing Pujols or Fielder away from a division rival and replacing free agent Carlos Pena with a more complete player. The Rangers, who have Michael Young and Mike Napoli in the mix at first base, have been aggressive under new ownership, signing Adrian Beltre and pursuing Cliff Lee.
Despite the financial troubles of owner Frank McCourt, we can’t rule out the Dodgers. James Loney has been doing his best to avoid the non-tender that once seemed inevitable, but his torrid August won’t make GM Ned Colletti forget about Pujols and Fielder.
Ten Teams The Agents Would Do Well To Engage
The Yankees and Red Sox already have elite first basemen, so Lozano and Boras would have to sell the teams (and potentially their clients) on DH roles. Both clubs will have more pressing needs to address, but you can’t rule out either, so prepare to hear about Boston and New York in connection with the two first basemen.
Like the Cubs, the Orioles will likely have a new general manager in town. That person will have to decide whether it’s worth spending big instead of relying on in-house options like Luke Scott, Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds. The Mariners are in a similar situation to the Orioles in that they don’t appear poised to contend in 2012 and have internal options, namely Justin Smoak and Mike Carp.
Blue Jays fans, prepare yourselves for a November MLBTR headline that reads something like this: ‘Blue Jays Interested In Fielder, Pujols.’ Toronto’s front office is tight-lipped about free agent moves, so many available players get linked to the Jays, even when the club’s interest is tepid. The Jays have money and would be a better team with an elite first baseman, so that headline may be worth clicking on.
The Angels have two first basemen (Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo) and five outfielders (Peter Bourjos, Mike Trout, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu) for five total spots. Unless GM Tony Reagins gets really creative on the trade market, I don’t see much room at first or DH.
The same could be said about the Nationals, who have Mike Morse and Adam LaRoche at first base, but let’s not rule Washington out. Their connection with Boras has been well-documented and they may view Pujols and Fielder as the kind of player who could push them into contention (and push Morse to the outfield).
Though there may be some rumblings about the Marlins’ potential interest, it’s hard to imagine them coming through with the winning bid, even as they head into a new ballpark. Gaby Sanchez’s presence further lessens the likelihood of a deal, but both agents could have interest in engaging Florida just in case.
The D’Backs and Giants are sleepers in the Pujols-Fielder sweepstakes. The NL West rivals could both use a boost at first base (only four clubs have gotten a lower OPS from their first basemen this year), but both have incumbents at the position. Would it be that hard to find another role for Paul Goldschmidt? How about relegating Aubrey Huff to the bench and moving Brandon Belt to the outfield? These are question the D’Backs and Giants could ask themselves this offseason.
15 Teams That Don’t Appear To Be Fits
The Rays, Indians, Pirates, Padres and Athletics don’t have the money to get involved (though the latter three teams rank 28th, 29th and 30th in OPS at first base this year).
It’s hard to imagine Pujols or Fielder signing with an AL Central club, since the Tigers, White Sox, Twins and Royals already have first basemen and/or DHs in place. That leaves the Rockies, Astros, Reds, Braves, Mets and Phillies, who all have established first basemen and bigger offseason needs.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
EdinsonPickle
Good post. This free agent season will be an interesting one, especially with Albert on the market and the Beasts of the East already toting first basemen for the long term. I doubt either of these players would be wanting to go to a DH role, so I don’t really see the Yanks or Sox picking these guys up. I would like it if they both stayed with their respective teams, but I think the Jays and Cubs are the real threats at signing one of Pujols or Fielder.
East Coast Bias
Imagine Tex, AGon, and Fielder/Pujols in the same division. Yikes!
$3513744
Imagine some of those guys on the same team!
EdinsonPickle
I don’t think anyone would be asking which division had the best class of first basemen.
$3513744
It’s clearly the AL West
wickedkevin
We all know that Mike Rizzo only signed Werth so he would get first dibs on Fielder
Rabbitov
Not a very good strategy if that was the intent.
wickedkevin
The signing of Werth with that contract is not a very good strategy no matter the intent.
Wayne
im sorry but the nats have internal options and they already signed werthless for a ton of money and years….let scott boras whore his client somewhere else….i want neither fielder or king albert…im tired of rizzo being boras’ yes man….have some balls and tell him take his bs somewhere else
Christopher Nichols
Pujols a Dodger? That would be quite a feat, to bring El Hombre to L.A.
vtadave
Pujols would have to be willing to accepet $6 million a year for 8-10 years and then come 2020 or so, $10 million a year until he dies.
BlueSkyLA
The Dodgers have already laid out Pujols-type money. So soon we forget. Of course that was before the divorce and the bankruptcy.
BMOC
Im telling you now, Prince Fielder will be a SF Giant or Boston Red Sox…..mark it down…!!!!
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
is that because they are your favourite teams?
The_BiRDS
I bet he will be a Cub
Wayne
uhhh why??? a-gon being a dh when big poopie retires? dosen’t make sense dude…
Vmmercan
Why would the Yankees trade Montero for a full-time DH with A-Rod and Tex in longterm deals? They would have to trade Montero firstly (since it’s pretty assumed he can’t be a full-time catcher for two years if ever) and would be doing it for presumably an expensive piece, plus signing an expensive piece and blocking 1-2 players who might need to play that position (or lack thereof) eventually.
Yankees and Mets should switch places on this list in my opinion.
rfffr
I think if the Diamondbacks go after a big free agent it would be jose reyes. Goldschmidt is locked in but 2b is unfilled and drew and roberts could be moved.
Taskmaster75
Drew is a top 5 SS himself when he’s healthy. The D-backs have no incentive to minimally upgrade at the position for a boatload of cash when they can address more pressing needs, such as the rotation and other lineup spots.
GrizzlyBeer
How is the rotation pressing? The Dbacks have Kennedy/Hudson/Collmenter as reliable options with Saunders(maybe trade bait), Parker, Bauer, Skaggs, Miley to pick from for the final 2 spots.
Signing Reyes and moving Stephen to 2nd base would be huge in my opinion.
CyYoungSuppan
I have a feeling that the Brewers postseason success might have direct play with how aggressive they are with re-signing Prince. Another 3 million fans through the doors at Miller Park again this year with a deep run could convince Mark A. to jump the payroll enough to bring Prince back and not cripple the team from making future moves. But if that isn’t possible, it is probably best to let him walk and try to extend Greinke and/or Marcum for a few more years.
Wayne
good point…and also prince needs to think about where the majority of his numbers come from…thats right, the drunk tank better known as miller park…..he goes elsewhere, his numbers will drop….you will see that, i guarantee
vtadave
Guarantee eh? Prior to this year, Fielder’s H/R splits were remarkably identical. He’ll be fine wherever he goes.
Andy
Most of Prince’s longshots would be out of Yellowstone, let alone most major league parks. He’ll be just fine wherever he lands.
Now having said that, I agree that it’s very possible that, depending on the Brewers’ success in the postseason, Attanasio increases payroll to extend Prince. If the Red Sox and Yankees don’t get involved in the bidding, they may even be able to do that affordably (relatively speaking).
zach_puke
my ‘like’ is for your avatar, haha
JacksTigers
Is it all that crazy to think that Pujols could play 3rd? That could open up a lot more teams willing to bid. He’s deffinitley athletic enough. Just a thought.
rfffr
He can play it. Just not well
Jon Stark
It is not clear that the amount of money would really be that much more, and plus, he doesn’t play that well, has some elbow issues, and will probably be dhing at the half point of the contract.
Paul Quinn
I can’t help but think that the Nationals are going to come up big and sign one or the other. Werth explained last offseason that he signed not just for the money but because he was led to believe that this organization had the means and the desire to build themselves into a contender. You have easily the two hottest First Round Draft picks in recent memory, presumably both in the lineup and starting the game on Opening Day 2012. That alone will be a draw. Add Puljos or Fielder at first and automatically you’re going to fill that place 81 times a year.
nictonjr
They may be better off getting CJ Wilson. Stras, Wilson and Zimmerman are as good a 1,2,3 there is…outside Phil and Atl…
w00ters mcgee
Your blind nats homerism is cute but that 3 some isn’t even top 5 let alone top 10. BOS, SF, LAA, mil, tb, and many other teams have way better big 3’s than that. That “big 3” doesn’t even come close to phillys or SF’s not to mention the fact that they haven’t done anything and won’t get a crack at the postseason for a long time if ever. Also the braves “big 3” isn’t even one of the best in the league considering it does not contain a single great pitcher but it’s not your fault you’re clueless.
Lunchbox45
your post was even worse.
Braves are 3rd in the league in team ERA… they don’t have a big name, because they don’t need one.
Wayne
stras will demolish any homo pitcher you mention….verlander may be the exception but nobody even comes close to stras’ upside….
ibleedorangeandblack
stars demolish any pitching? pitching wins championships. just look at everything the giants did last october. matt cain didnt give up a run in the entire post season
Lunchbox45
you should re read his post.
Andy
I’d like to see Strasburg make it through half a season without destroying his elbow. Then we’ll talk about how great he is.
Wayne
first off dude, nice screeching weasel logo….you got that out of my old 90’s t-shirt box…..next off watch stras next year just dominate whatever bs is thrown his way….your problem is nats denial…..see, the farm is stacked, have arguably the top under 25 arm out there….and harper? i had the expierence of watching his single A games when he was in my home town…dude is the real deal….as for the free agents? they arent gonna make that mistake again
Lucas Kschischang
stras’s homo mechanics will demolish his elbow and shoulder if he doesn’t fix them.
i seem to recall reading something about him being stubborn and NOT wanting to work on changing his delivery.
Read some of Chris O’Leary’s pieces on pitching mechanics; I believe he has an entire essay devoted to the mechanics of stras.
Andy
I keep reading about how great the Nationals are gonna be, how they have all these prospects, and how they’re going to sign all the free agents on the market. Yet here they are, still sucking. Their top prospect bowed out after less than a single season needing elbow surgery. And their only big free agent signing has been….wait for it…..Jayson Werth. Yeah, go Nats. Team of the future.
I hope they sign Fielder AND Pujols. That way, they’ll have not one but TWO designated hitters in a couple years. Eating up 3/4 of their payroll. In the wrong league.
gunsnascar
rigggghhhhhhttt
Jeff 30
You’re misguided in suggesting Harper is going to be starting on opening day next year methinks.
Wayne
dude, im a nats fan and that was the biggest load of crap i ever heard….i dont hear him saying sorry for a disappointing year…..do you really believe that….it was all about the money…..now you got idiots like nick swisher being quoted as saying he can get werth type money elsewhere…..riiight and im the easter bunny…point is we got the farm system for a reason….look at marrero,doing great,look at morse playing his rear end off….werth when he goes to bat looks really disinterested…look at what we have in the farm, not another mistake….
Matt Talbert
Yeah, I’d like to see a Delgado for Rendon swap 🙂
Wayne
only if you take werthess!
Lunchbox45
Jays, fielder, do it.
Jon Stark
Fielder over Pujols? It is an interesting question. Fielder has the age advantage. Pujols has the marketability of making history advantage. Pujols has the better pedigree and is probably the better defensively. Fielder is probably going to be cheaper and have a shorter contract.
Maybe this point isn’t relevant, but Pujols is RH, which perhaps matches up better against the aces of the AL east (problem is though that those things change and there are plenty of good rh pitchers coming up).
Lunchbox45
here’s how I see it..
Fielder should/could be had for about a 100 million cheaper than Pujols…. You know what the jays can get with 100 million? Wilson (or Darvish, but I prefer Wilson)
So Fielder + Wilson > Pujols
Sniderlover
Pujols Pujols Pujols!!! Do it do it do it.
Lunchbox45
pssst…. he’s really 34
gunsnascar
are you crazy …………. never mind I reread your post …………… you are crazy nictonjr
JacksTigers
At least say it to his face…
The_BiRDS
Fielder in on pace to be 480 lbs
Jose_Bautista
Prince Fielder goes to Blue Jays or Cubs…..write it down!
Steve_in_MA
I honestly don’t care how good either of Pujols and Fielder are. There is no way in hell I would ever sign anyone to a ten year contract, such as what Pujols, at $23MM per season, will seek. And there is no way I would ever sign a one-dimensional fat-ass DH to a contract of more than $12MM per season, like Fielder will be seeking. No doubt, these guys will dramatically produce runs in the near term. But they will not transform a losing team into a champion, and they will not be able to endure for the length of their next contracts. Its a serious losing proposition to stretch the payroll and years to sign them. I know someone will fall for it, but I pray nobody does. If no one does cave in, baseball will be better for it.
ibleedorangeandblack
i kind of blame alex rodriguez for all this. i may be wrong, but wasnt he the one who started all this BS 10 year contract stuff back when he signed with texas?
wholenewworld
Don’t blame ARod for what the owners freely pay.
Every year there is a Werth, or Zito, or Wells (just to mention the $126 million club) that teams sign and live to regret.
Steve_in_MA
He set the precedent, but as WNW below correctly observes, it took an ownership group to go along with it. Pujols is well worth the annual salary he seeks, but to put him under contract until he’s 40? A-Rod is on his age-based decline already, and has something like 5-6 more years under contract. Pujols would be worth the salary through say age 36, but that leaves 4 years of decline hanging around one’s neck, like the proverbial albatross.
The high-profile players are trying to say that these decline years are part of the price teams have to pay to get their good years. I disagree with that concept, and I think you do too. There will always be players and agents who will push for such an arrangement. The only hope of avoiding it is if there are no owners willing to go there.
BlueSkyLA
Sure, but here’s the dirty little secret of baseball: The wealthy teams can afford to lock up players long term, well into what is likely to be their declining years, knowing that they can afford to take the loss at the end of the contract. They also get the benefit of keeping that player away from a competitor. The not-wealthy teams have to at least anticipate productivity for the length of a contract. So the real issue here isn’t so much owners who are willing to sign players long term, but the huge disparity in spending power that permits a handful of teams to offer contracts based on a vastly different cost-benefit-risk profile than everyone else.
Steve_in_MA
All true, but even Cashman and the loaded Yanks are starting to feel the impact of having over-extended A-Rod at the behest of that one unnamed brother who was then acting as the imprudent managing owner. The BoSox have felt the minor stings of having over-extended by one year each on J.D. Drew ($14MM+) and Mike Lowell ($12MM), where they were both ineffective and mostly taking up an active roster spot. They may be able to stomach the money, but it certainly does hurt their competitiveness.
BlueSkyLA
The wealthy teams can afford to unload bad contracts at a loss if need be. Doing so hurts their competitiveness far less than teams that aren’t so flush having to eat one. Using the example you cited, Boston is obviously still competitive even after they effectively wasted $36m on these two players. Those two years of contracts added together equal the entire payroll of the KC Royals. The underlying problem is the huge disparity in spending power.
Wayne
yeah…and with the exception of a few, the yanks farm system is a little weak
notsureifsrs
nope
Steve_in_MA
Have to disagree. The Yanks continue to have a top 10 farm system.
BlueSkyLA
Yeah, it’s called the other 29 teams. (An old joke but a good one.) Sure, the Yankees have a quality farm organization but I’d still like to see Cash Man build a completive team with “only” $70m to spend. Year after year we see how far a good farm system goes. It might even allow a team without much money to spend to become competitive once in awhile, but the moment the players start getting expensive, the team is right back in rebuilding mode.
Steve_in_MA
I think you just described the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays to a T. The Royals are a few starting pitchers away from competing and the Rays are a few hitters away from competing, all because their existing players got too expensive and either got traded or were lost to free agency. But both teams have an impressive corps of young players/pitchers that will
That’s why Friedman, in particular, has my vote for best GM. He makes it all work very well on a limited payroll, and has one of the best farm systems in the game.
rayking
Sadly, I agree with you, which means that I’m a Cards fan but realize that we would be better off with Albert leaving. Signing him to a 10 year contract at $20M+ per season would ensure that the team would be terrible after he declines in year 5 (or sooner) until the end of the contract. The steroid era is over, guys just don’t rake until their mid 40’s anymore.
The one way we could swing it is if we absolutely crushed the draft every season so that we have young affordable talent throughout the entirety of the contract. But I’m not counting on that.
Steve_in_MA
Rayking, I couldn’t have said it better myself. Its a recipe for talent bankruptcy.
Wainwrights_Curveball
Don’t forget that horrible Matt Holliday contract that is still on the books as well. If the Cards resign Pujols, there will be two giant contracts clogging up most of the payroll.
Steve_in_MA
Ok, so I suspect this is intended to be facetious, as Holliday is signed only from ages 30-36 (with age 37 being an option year), and at $17MM per season, where he’s averaging between +5 and +6 WAR, while playing solid defense, there is nothing to really complain about, other than some decline in his games/plate attempts due to injury for 2011.
I think the Cards can afford both Pujols and Holliday, at $40MM per season, because they have another $70-$80MM in payroll to work with, if they want to stretch it to its limits. Leaving a Pujols signing out of the picture and including Holliday’s salary, the Cards are only committed to somewhere in the neighborhood of $60MM in payroll for next season (including projected arbitration awards), or roughly half their projected payroll. But there’s no room left for replacement if either of Albert or Matt were to get injured in spring training. They’d have to make due with someone from AAA.
But if they give Pujols more than 6 years, plus an option year or 2, then they are boxing themselves in for the future, where they are very liable to regret the years where he’s age 37 and up.
Wayne
actually, i believe he will stay in st.louis….who, in reality can give him the money and years?? boston,yanks? it wouldnt fit…cubs? they are stuck with crappy contracts now…mets? same as cubs only ownership issues arent clear….would the angels gamble?do they have the money…..texas? no they will be more concerned about retaining wilson….so, everybody explain to me who has the money or need for either one of them….this may come as a surprise but i see them staying put,with also reyes being the wild card in all this
BlueSkyLA
All good points. The other part of the story is that lacking a DL option, no NL team is likely to give either of these big guns any more than five years (and especially not Pujols). With none of the rich teams in the AL seeming to be in on them, I’d guess no ten year deals are in the offing for Pujols or Fielder.
Steve_in_MA
I hope you are right. The BoSox and Yanks are certainly both set at first base, and probably both set as to the DH.
Wayne
nice fn’g post….could not have said it better myself!!
dirtydez
Cards should’ve gave Pujols 10/250 a few years back.
Rodger Pille
Toronto could wait 2 years and have native Votto. Or trade for him in the near-term.
Lunchbox45
and waste 2 years of Bautista’s prime? good plan homer
Pete 12
Oakland has the 5th wealthiest owners in MLB, but “dont have the money”. That makes no sense at all. What you needed to write was:
“Bud Selig continues to do nothing in moving the A’s to a new stadium, so no free agent hitter in their right mind would ever sign there.”
Lunchbox45
wealth outside of baseball has little to do with the finances of running a baseball team.
The owners didn’t get to be so wealthy by running their business in the red, which is exactly what the A’s would be doing if they went out and spent big on Fa’s.
Wayne
oakland aint gonna spend a dime until they get the stadium they want….its a p****** match between ownership and the city
chico65
Was anyone else amused at the thought of Reagins getting “creative” on the trade market? I’m just waiting for him to flip Trout, Trumbo, and $$$ for Rios and Peavey.
TheFreak2011
That’s essentially what Kenny Williams did.
TheFreak2011
I can’t see anyone giving out a 10 year deal. How’s that worked out for the Yankees with A-Rod?
soxxy
I see Pujols and Fielder staying with their current teams, it would kill their fan base if they didn’t bring them back and to let them go to the Cubs?? Don’t think Cards or Brew-Crew will let that happen.
Anybody want Dunn???
Gop5
In my opinion, the Nats should have re-signed Adam Dunn for the 4 years and 48 Million he got from the White Sox, traded to get B.J. Upton (who said he would like to play in Washington), and then sign Reyes this off-season. Line-up in 2012:
1. Reyes
2. Upton
3. Zimmerman
4. Dunn
5. Werth
6. Morse
7. Espinoza
8. Ramos
9. pitcher’s spot
Not sure why they let Dunn go just to go sign LaRoche instead. Think about it, Werth did well in Philly when he had Howard batting around him. The Nats need to do the same by getting a power bat again. Also, Dunn played like crap in the AL…they could bring him back rather cheap if the Sox want to get rid of his contract. Why not bring him back, take on all of his salary, and have him for three years rather than spending 150-200 Million on Fielder or Pujols while worrying about their declines in 5 years and where to put them with no DH. And is Harper such a bad catcher that they drafted him as a RF? Otherwise, let him catch, then you have his bat in place of Ramos late in 2012 and on into the future. All of the sudden the lineup could be 1. Reyes (SS), 2. Upton (CF), 3. Zimmerman (3B), 4. Dunn (1B), 5. Werth (RF), 6. Harper (C), 7. Morse (LF), 8. Espinoza (2B). They’d win a few ballgames with that and their young pitching.
Then, let Fielder sign as a DH for the Mariners (Jack Z was the one that scouted him while in Milwaukee), since they haven’t had a power hitter in forever. Mariner fans have missed seeing homeruns by the home team. Pitching wins championships, but those pitchers can’t worry about giving up 2 runs and losing every time out. They need an RBI and HR threat. Fielder would be that.
Brian Harps
I think the rangers should go hard after Pujols or Fielder…imagine the 3-5 hitters of Hamilton,Beltre and Fielder or Pujols, Hamilton and Cruz/Beltre..Texas would be a good fit for either one as the offense offers protection from being pitched around
finestsounds
Nats should get Fielder, (The Boras connection), eat the LaRoche contract, and become an instant contender. Paying Fielder 20 mil a year puts their payroll in the 85-90 mil area, (Orioles money), where they should be. With Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Wang starting rotation, Clippard and Storen the bullpen stoppers, Harper up in 2012, (plug in Bernadina & Ankiel until Harper is ready), Zimmerman and Morse hitting around Fielder, Werth should regain the supporting role he played in Philly, Ramos, Espinosa, & Desmond rounding out the field, Nats would appear to be a playoff contender with the addition of Prince.