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Matt Guerrier

Orioles Notes: Tillman, Hernandez, Reynolds, Uehara

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The Orioles missed out on Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn, but they're still in the hunt for Paul Konerko.  Here's a look at some of their other offseason targets…

  • Chris Tillman's name has been mentioned in connection with the Mark Reynolds trade rumors, tweets Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman.  Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic thinks the D'Backs "seem to like" David Hernandez more, but Hernandez would be just one piece of what's likely to be a pitcher-centric package (Twitter links).   
  • The O's are one of three teams known to be exploring a Reynolds deal, but they're the ones with "the heaviest interest" in the third baseman according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.  The Blue Jays and Padres, in fact, "strongly deny" that they're even pursuing Reynolds.
  • "Some progress has been made" between the Orioles and Koji Uehara, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.  The club has been keeping in touch with Uehara's agent and Zrebiec says team officials "feel pretty good" about their ability to re-sign the reliever.
  • Zrebiec also notes that Baltimore has been in discussions about a number of free agent relievers and have contacted the representatives of Grant Balfour, Jesse Crain, Scott Downs, Brian Fuentes, Matt Guerrier and Kerry Wood.  The O's "have at least one offer out" to one of these pitchers, Zrebiec says.
  • Baltimore has contacted Bobby Jenks' agent, reports Zrebiec in another piece.
  • From that same article, Zrebiec writes "the next person I speak to in the organization who feels the O’s have a shot at Konerko would be the first."  The Orioles' interest in Konerko is "largely overblown" and most insiders feel Konerko will re-sign with the White Sox.

Blue Jays Interested In Matt Guerrier

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The Blue Jays are showing interest in reliever Matt Guerrier, a source tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter).  The right-hander was not offered arbitration by Minnesota and therefore will not cost a top draft pick.  Had he received an arbitration offer from the Twins, he would have been a Type A free agent.

Guerrier posted a 3.17 ERA in 2010 with 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 74 appearances.  The 32-year-old earned $3.15MM this season and our own Ben Nicholson-Smith doesn't see him making more than $4-5MM in 2011.

Earlier this week we learned that Toronto is also reportedly interested in another reliever familiar to the Twins organization, Jesse Crain. 

 

Dodgers Looking To Sign Relievers

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Not only are the Dodgers interested in Johnny Damon and a number of catchers, they're attempting to sign one or two setup men, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor and Matt Guerrier are high on their shopping list. 

Crain, a Type B free agent, declined arbitration from the Twins, but he won't cost the Dodgers or any other team a draft pick. Since Guerrier was not offered arbitration, he won't cost a top draft pick, either. Frasor, a former Dodger farmhand, would have cost a top pick, but he accepted arbitration from the Blue Jays.

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has locked up Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Garland, Juan Uribe, Jay Gibbons and Dana Eveland since the regular season ended. Los Angeles also acquired Blake Hawksworth for Ryan Theriot today.

Red Sox Interested In Matt Guerrier

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The Red Sox have shown interest in Matt Guerrier, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. The reliever is a free agent for the first time this winter, after earning $3.15MM in 2010, his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Guerrier, who has spent his entire big league career in Minnesota, was not offered arbitration by the Twins this week. As a Type A free agent, the right-hander may have had trouble securing a deal with another team if he turned down arbitration. With no arb offer though, the 32-year-old is free to sign with any club without costing them a draft pick.

MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined Guerrier's free agent stock earlier this week, concluding that the righty may not receive multiyear offers due to some mediocre peripheral numbers and a deep free agent class. However, as a workhorse that has made at least 73 appearances in each of the last four seasons, Guerrier should draw plenty of interest on a short-term deal. For their part, the Red Sox are looking to improve a bullpen that ranked 12th in the AL in ERA (4.24) in 2010.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Guerrier

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Matt Guerrier probably caught a break when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration earlier this week. Fellow Type As Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor and Grant Balfour all got offers of arbitration and will cost picks, but teams can sign the 32-year-old Guerrier without having to surrender a draft choice. Here's a detailed look at his free agent stock:

The Pros

  • Guerrier led the league in appearances in 2008-09 and pitched in 74 games this past season.
  • He induces more grounders than fly balls.
  • His slider is excellent.
  • Guerrier has a 2.7 K/BB ratio against right-handed hittters in his career. 
  • He has just a 1.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed hitters in his career, but he does induce more groundballs against them (55%).
  • As mentioned earlier, it won't cost a pick to sign Guerrier.

The Cons

  • Defense independent pitching stats like FIP and xFIP suggest Guerrier's 3.17 ERA would have been higher if he had been less lucky in 2010.
  • He posted 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 last year. That's not spectacular and both rates were better in 2009.
  • The free agent market is flush with right-handed relievers, so Guerrier won't have much leverage.

The Verdict

The Twins are one of many teams that could use a steady arm like Guerrier's. MLB.com's Kelly Thesier wrote last month that they seem more likely to retain Guerrier and Jesse Crain than their other free agent relievers.

The market has played out favorably for at least one reliever, but Guerrier doesn't have the gaudy numbers that Joaquin Benoit does. Teams will have interest in someone with a history of effectiveness and durability, but I will be surprised if Guerrier earns more than $4-5MM on a one-year deal.

American League Free Agent Arbitration Offers

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10 American League teams have free agent arbitration offer decisions to make, and we'll group them in this post.  For a fantastic customizable chart with all 65 Type A/B free agents and their decisions in real-time, click here.

Examining Minnesota’s Bullpen

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It’s not easy to imagine a bullpen with more question marks than Minnesota’s. That's not to say the Twins don’t have quality relievers, it’s just hard to predict which ones will return in 2011. Kelly Thesier of MLB.com breaks down the team’s bullpen, which includes six free agents and a non-tender candidate.

Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes, Ron Mahay and Randy Flores all hit free agency but they won’t all return. Thesier says the Twins are not likely to keep Mahay or Flores and seem most likely to target Crain and Guerrier.

Crain, who ranks as a Type B free agent, says he loves Minnesota but would like the chance to close. That won’t happen if he stays put, since Joe Nathan should return from Tommy John surgery next year. Matt Capps, who saved 42 games in 2010, figures to be next in line for saves.

The Nathan-Capps duo promises to be effective, but it will definitely be expensive. Nathan earns $11.25MM next year and Capps will get a raise from his $3.5MM salary through arbitration.

If the Twins lose certain pitchers after offering arbitration, they could gain picks in next year’s draft. Crain, Rauch and Fuentes rank as Type B free agents and could each bring the Twins a supplementary first round pick. Guerrier is a Type A free agent, so the Twins would get two top picks if he leaves after declining arbitration.

Clay Condrey, who didn’t pitch in 2010 due to elbow problems, is a non-tender candidate. Despite all the uncertainty in the 'pen, Bill Smith & Co. head into the offseason with a more stable rotation.

Cafardo’s Latest: Stairs, Pierzynski, Inge, Berkman

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Let's round up the highlights from Nick Cafardo's Sunday column for the Boston Globe….

  • One AL executive tells Cafardo that he's never seen so many candidates interviewed for managerial openings: "It’s amazing to me that you wouldn’t know within, say, two or three candidates who you want. But I guess in some cases the GM’s job is also on the line if he picks the wrong guy."
  • Matt Stairs would like to play for at least one more season. While he says he'd like to return to Boston, he concedes that he'd probably play "anywhere."
  • An NL scout was positive about A.J. Pierzynski, suggesting that he'll be one of the most attractive catching options on the free agent market, behind Victor Martinez and John Buck. "With A.J., you know he’s not going to throw people out," said the scout. "But there’s nothing wrong with his receiving and he can still hit. I know the fire he has can rub people the wrong way, but I think that’s great for a team."
  • Brandon Inge has a good chance of landing a starting role this winter, given the lack of free agent third base options after Adrian Beltre. However, Cafardo wonders if Inge could eventually become a Bill Hall-esque utility player, given his ability to play a few different positions.
  • Possible bullpen targets for the Red Sox include Joaquin Benoit, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Brian Fuentes.
  • A market appears to be developing for Lance Berkman. Teams like the Rockies, Orioles, Mets, Blue Jays, and Diamondbacks could have interest.
  • Carlos Delgado underwent another hip procedure two and a half weeks ago, but is rehabbing the hip and feels like he'll be able to play in 2011.

Three Decisions: Matt Guerrier

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Matt Guerrier currently projects as a Type A free agent under the Elias Rankings. When he hits free agency after the season, the Twins will have a major decision to make: is Guerrier worth an offer of arbitration? Depending on what GM Bill Smith does, Guerrier will have his own a choice to make and so will baseball's other teams. Here's a breakdown of the three possible decisions, starting with the Twins:

The Twins' Decision

If Guerrier maintains his Type A status, he will have the potential to bring the Twins two top picks in the 2011 draft. For that to happen, Guerrier would have to turn arbitration down and sign with another club.

The right-hander has led the league in appearances each of the past two seasons and has a 2.89 ERA this year with 6.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. It's another solid season for the 32-year-old Ohio native, and he'd fit well in many bullpens.

Guerrier is making just 3.15MM in 2010 and hasn't had an exceptional career before this point, so he would presumably make something like $4MM if he accepts arbitration. The Twins have already committed $72MM to their 2011 payroll and that figure doesn't include Matt Capps' expected raise through arbitration. The Twins, who will pay Joe Nathan $11.25MM next year, may hesitate to commit even $4MM to Guerrier, who's good, but not irreplaceable. They could decide not to offer arbitration and forgo the potential draft picks, but if they do offer arb, Guerrier will have to make a decision of his own.

Guerrier's Decision

If the Twins offer arbitration, Guerrier and his agent would have to decide whether to accept the offer, like Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano did last year, or turn it down. Some relievers, like Juan Cruz, have had trouble finding jobs after turning down arb because of their Type A status, so Guerrier could simply accept, since he's not a household name. He and his agent will have from December 1st to December 7th to decide.

However, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner and Mike Gonzalez all found jobs last winter even though the teams that signed them had to give up compensation picks to do so. Those three relievers all had lower ERAs and higher strikeout rates last year than Guerrier has in 2010. However, Guerrier has a lower walk rate than any of those three pitchers had a year ago. 

He and his representatives would have to decide whether clubs consider Guerrier an impact reliever who's worth surrendering a top pick for. It seems quite unlikely that Guerrier would turn down arbitration if the Twins offer it, but teams will have to make a decision if Guerrier turns down arb.

Other Teams' Decision

Is Guerrier worth surrendering a first round pick for? To his credit, he has posted ERAs below 3.00 in three of the past four seasons, has an excellent slider and was durable enough to lead the league in appearances in 2008-09. Still, his career-low homer rate is keeping his ERA artificially low, he doesn't strike tons of batters out and reliever performance can be volatile. I'd be surprised if a front office in baseball believed that Guerrier was worth surrendering a first-round pick for.

However, they wouldn't necessarily have to. Teams that sign multiple Type A free agents only give one first rounder away, naturally. Guerrier would only cost a second or third-rounder for clubs that are especially aggressive in free agency, so those teams could have stronger interest.

The Conclusion

If the Twins feel they can afford to have three well-paid relievers in their 'pen, offering Guerrier arb wouldn't hurt. After all, they'd have the chance to obtain a supplementary first round pick and another pick if he signs elsewhere. Guerrier's representatives would likely advise him to accept arb, since there's no guarantee that rival clubs would have interest. If Guerrier turns arb down, he could be in for a Juan Cruz-esque job search unless a team that signs multiple Type A free agents makes him an offer.

Players To Avoid Arbitration: Tuesday

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Noon ET today was the deadline for both the team and player to submit their salary figures for arbitration, however the two sides can come to an agreement at any point before the actual hearing. The hearings are scheduled for the first week of February.

We'll keep track of the players who avoid arbitration today by agreeing to deals here. Make sure you check back in for updates, and be sure to click the "Continue Reading" link to see today's full list of settlements.  Yesterday's list can be found here.

  • Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels avoided arbitration with Mike Napoli and Reggie Willits by signing the duo to one-year deals.  Napoli will earn $3.6MM in 2010 with a $100K bonus if he makes 120 starts.  Willits' contract is worth $625K. 
  • Zach Duke's one-year contract with Pittsburgh is worth $4.3MM with no performance bonuses, tweets Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
  • The Padres and reliever Mike Adams have agreed to a contract, reports MLB.com's Corey Brock (via Twitter).  Brock's follow-up tweet says Adams' deal is worth $1MM, virtually splitting the difference between San Diego's $875K offer and Adams' $1.2MM demands.
  • Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins have agreements in place with all eight of their arbitration eligible players.  In a follow-up tweet, Christensen reports that Francisco Liriano agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.6MM and Jesse Crain agreed to a one-year contract worth $2MM.
  • Marc Carig of the New Jersey Star-Ledger reports that the Mets avoided arbitration with reliever Sean Green (via Twitter).  The one-year deal was worth $975K, according to the New York Daily News' Anthony McCarron.
  • The Tigers avoided arb with Gerald Laird and Zach Miner as well according to James Jahnke of The Detroit Free Press.  MLB.com's Jason Beck tweets the details on the one-year contracts: Laird will earn $3.95MM, Miner will earn $950K.
  • Christensen tweets that the Twins avoided arb with Brendan Harris, signing him to a two year deal worth $3.2MM with another $650K in possible incentives.
  • The Tigers and Bobby Seay avoided arbitration according to MLB.com's Jason Beck (via Twitter), agreeing to a one year deal worth $2.475MM.
  • Thesier tweets that Matt Guerrier agreed to a one year deal worth $3.15MM with the Twins, avoiding arb.
  • Amalie Benjamin of The Boston Globe tweets that the Red Sox have avoided arbitration with Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, with Delcarmen getting $905K plus incentives according to Joe McDonald of The Providence Journal. Boston avoided arb with Jonathan Papelbon as well.

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