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Joey Votto

Quick Hits: Votto, Anderson, Red Sox, Dodgers

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Links for Sunday evening as the Brewers have jumped out to a 1-0 lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS..

  • The Reds need to ask themselves if they believe that they can pay Joey Votto a market-value contract after 2013, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com.  If the Reds don't believe that they can pay him, Olney writes that history says that they should move him between now and July 31, 2012.
  • The Red Sox could use Lars Anderson as a trade chip this offseason, writes Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.  The 24-year-old first baseman is stuck behind Adrian Gonzalez and MacPherson identifies several teams who would be interested in the youngster.  Anderson was nearly shipped to the Athletics in a deal for Rich Harden in July.
  • Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times doesn't expect to see the Dodgers make many changes this winter.  If Ned Colletti & Co. don't sign a bopper in free agency, that leaves trading for a big bat and the club doesn't have much to offer in return.
  • Tigers closer Jose Valverde represents yet another ex-Astros player achieving success elsewhere, writes Stephen Goff of Examiner.com. 
  • Brewers right-hander Shaun Marcum sees a bright future for his former teammate, Cardinals lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski.  Marcum, who will start Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday, played with Rzepczynski in Toronto.

East Links: Marlins, Votto, Darvish, Cashman

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For the first time since 2005, there isn't a single team from either East division in the LCS round. That just means we're going to be hearing a lot more about them during the hot stove season. Here are some East Coast links…

  • Earlier today we heard that the Reds are expected to listen to offers for Joey Votto, and Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post thinks the Marlins may kick the tires (Twitter link). The Fish are expected to make a splash before moving into their new stadium, and Votto would certainly qualify. Click here for Tim Dierkes' Offseason Outlook.
  • Although the Marlins are expected to be quite active this offseason, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel (via Twitter) doesn't expect them to be in on Yu Darvish as the club isn't terribly active in Asia.
  • No surprise here, but Yankees GM Brian Cashman says that he still wants to return next season, writes Chad Jennings of The Journal News. Cashman's contract expires at the end of the month, and ESPN's Buster Olney hears (on Twitter) that talks about a new contract are going smoothly. A deal could be done by the end of next week.
  • Jennings looked back at the trade deadline and asked if the Yankees missed an opportunity. He says it's easy to say they did in hindsight, but he agrees when Cashman says "I don't see there was any missed opportunity I could have done differently."

NL Central Notes: Votto, Cardinals, Carpenter

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Let's take a look at a few items out of the National League Central…

  • Rival executives are getting signals that the Reds won't shop Joey Votto, but the club is fully prepared to listen to offers this winter, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.
  • We could see some changes to the Cardinals' coaching staff, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  The Athletics have expressed interest in assistant hitting coach Mike Aldrete and he is believed the leading candidate for the position.  Meanwhile, pitching coach Dave Duncan may choose to step away from baseball as his wife is suffering from a brain malignancy.
  • Before the Cardinals inked a two-year extension with Chris Carpenter in September, they internally discussed whether the veteran's stuff had regressed, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com.  Ultimately, they decided that even though his surface-level stats had taken a dip, Carpenter was still capable of throwing well.
  • Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (via Twitter) expects the Cubs to name their next GM before the start of the World Series.

Quick Hits: Rhodes, Yankees, Villalona, Athletics

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The A's announced that they have hired former MLB player and manager Phil Garner as a special advisor. The 62-year-old played for 16 seasons and managed for another 15. Here are the latest links from around MLB… 

  • Arthur Rhodes told B.J. Rains of FOXSportsMidwest.com that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies all had interest in signing with him before he joined the Cardinals (Twitter link). The Phillies wanted the veteran lefty to pitch in the minors before adding him to the big league roster.
  • "What you see is what you’re gonna get," said Yankees GM Brian Cashman to Dan Barbarisi of The Wall Street Journal (Twitter link). Cashman doesn't expect to make any waiver trades this month.
  • The Associated Press (via ESPN Deportes) reports that former Giants prospect Angel Villalona is suing the team for $5MM, citing unlawful termination of his contract. Villalona, once ranked as the 33rd best prospect in the game by Baseball America, has not played since 2009 after being charged with murder in the Dominican Republic.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that MLB needs a salary floor (a minimum payroll) because certain teams aren't going to spend any more than they have to. However, the players' union has traditionally opposed salary caps and floors. 
  • Ian Kennedy told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he would listen if the D’Backs approached him about a long-term deal.
  • Brewers GM Doug Melvin told Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he didn't know Ron Roenicke before interviewing him for Milwaukee's managerial opening last fall. The new skipper has the Brewers in first place, four games ahead of the Cardinals.
  • Joey Votto told Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer that superstars can be overrated in MLB, since they don't impact the game the way great players do in other sports. I highly recommend Daugherty's piece, in which Votto shows a strong understanding of the business of baseball.
  • Tampa Bay, Arizona, Oakland, Miami and Washington are the five worst markets in MLB for Newsday's Ken Davidoff.

Heyman On Lincecum, Cano, Votto, Weaver, Dodgers

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Ryan Braun's $105MM, five-year contract extension through 2020 seemed like it came out of nowhere, but a ton of other young stars also appear to be in line for new deals, writes Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  Heyman runs down the 20-somethings that could get hefty contract extensions and touches on a few other things in today's column..

  • Giants ace Tim Lincecum won't be a free agent until after the 2013 season, but San Francisco would be wise to lock him up before his arbitration numbers get out of hand.  A third Cy Young season could potentially bring Lincecum from $14MM into the $25MM range and possibly to $30MM in '13.  Heyman expects a deal to get done, even if it costs the club a fortune.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes touched on the Lincecum situation here and here, and will have much more on the topic next week.
  • Similarly, there's no reason to think the Yankees would let Robinson Cano leave in the prime of his career.  The Bombers have options for 2012 and '13 at $14MM and $15MM, respectively, and will obviously exercise them. Look for the Yanks to get a deal done with the second baseman, but only after the Scott Boras client files for free agency.
  • Reds slugger Joey Votto will hit the open market after 2013 and it would be wise for the club to lock him up as the youngster continues to improve.  This winter he signed a three-year, $38MM to take care of his arbitration years, but his rate will presumably rise after that deal is up.  Heyman believes that the Reds will lock up Votto, just as they did with Jay Bruce.  This winter, Cincinnati signed the right fielder to a six-year, $51MM deal.
  • Even though the Marlins' poor attendance would seem to indicate that the club doesn't have the funds to sign Josh Johnson to a new deal, they are on their way to a brand-new facility in the near future.  Putting that aside, they're still in the black. His $39MM, four-year deal goes through 2013 but his next contract should easily top that.
  • If you're a Halos fan looking to purchase a Jered Weaver jersey, you may want to reconsider.  Heyman writes that the right-hander is all but a goner in two years.  Agent Scott Boras is talking his client up and the Angels don't have a history of keeping their top free agents anyway.  It's possible that the next Dodgers owner, assuming there is one, could talk the Simi Valley product into a homecoming.
  • It may come as a surprise to some, but Heyman predicts that Andre Ethier will remain with the Dodgers beyond 2012.  GM Ned Colletti is believed to want to lock up Ethier along with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.  Even though the Dodgers' situation is probably too messy for anything to get done right away, they have to act fast to keep the 29-year-old. 
  • You can also expect the Dodgers to work something out with Kemp, who is also a free agent after 2012. 
  • Of the 33 players that Heyman profiles, he expects most to get new deals done with their respective clubs.  Some of the players that we may see elsewhere: John Danks, Shin Soo-Choo, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, and Shaun Marcum.
  • TV magnate Burt Sugarman is one name believed to be in the mix among potential buyers of the Dodgers.  Investment banker Jason Reese and billionaire Ron Burkle are also in the mix.  Burkle is teaming with former Dodgers great Steve Garvey.

Who Could Get The Next Mega-Extension?

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In extending Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki through the year 2020, the Brewers and Rockies made bold commitments to their young stars by adding multiyear extensions on top of pre-existing contracts that already covered both men through 2015 and 2014, respectively. 

Are these deals risky?  Absolutely, but the contracts represent the latest step in how clubs attempt to lock up their young stars.  It isn't enough to just gain cost-certainty on a player through his arbitration and first few free agent years.  If a team feels they have a true franchise player, it won't hesitate to sign that player to what essentially could be a lifetime contract in order to (hopefully) avoid spending even more money to re-sign that player or a comparable star as a free agent.

Should other clubs look to explore this tactic of extending an extension, here are some of the possible candidates to join Braun and Tulowitzki in the "2020" club.

  • Evan Longoria.  We start off with the man with arguably the most team-friendly extension in baseball history.  Longoria's six-year, $17.5MM contract signed in April 2008 contains three team option years (worth $7.5MM, $11MM and $11.5MM, respectively) that could keep him in Tampa Bay through 2016, his age-29 season.  As MLBTR's Mike Axisa pointed out over the winter, however, the Rays' uncertain financial situation makes it unlikely that they would make an even longer commitment to Longoria than they already have. 
  • Robinson Cano.  Cano signed a four-year, $30MM extension before the 2008 season that also includes team option years for 2012 ($14MM) and 2013 ($15MM).  New York will obviously keep Cano in the fold through his age-30 season by picking up those two options, unless those years get replaced by a longer-term contract.  Cano hired Scott Boras as his agent in February and while Cano said he isn't planning to ask for an extension before his current deal expires, the second baseman is clearly already thinking ahead.
  • Justin Upton.  The first overall pick of the already-legendary 2005 draft is signed through 2015 on a six-year, $51.25MM extension that will run out when he's 28 years old and right in the middle of his prime years.  The Diamondbacks explored a few deals for Upton over the winter and set off a flurry of speculation, but it appears as if GM Kevin Towers was simply doing his due diligence to see if another team would go overboard with a trade offer.  Upton had a slightly disappointing (.799 OPS) 2010 season, so Arizona might wait for at least one more superstar campaign from their young star to make sure he's worth the risk of another multiyear extension.
  • Hanley Ramirez.  It seems odd to think of the Marlins doling out any major extensions, let alone two to the same player.  With the team moving into its new Miami ballpark next year, though, the extra revenue could make another multiyear deal for Ramirez into a reality — not to mention generating some goodwill amongst Marlins fans to get them to spring for season tickets. Ramirez is under contract through 2014 on a six-year, $70MM deal and 2015 will be his age-31 season.  If Florida did explore an extension for Ramirez, they would surely have to factor in a move away from shortstop, since his defensive woes (a career -9.4 UZR/150) are likely to worsen as he ages.
  • Ryan Zimmerman.  MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith recently outlined how the Nationals' previous extension with Zimmerman — a five-year, $45MM pact that runs through 2013 — was a terrific bargain for the club.  Given Zimmerman's production, age (he'll be 29 when his deal runs out) and Washington's willingness to spend, Zimmerman is probably the most likely player on this list to receive a Braun/Tulowitzki-esque deal.
  • Joey Votto.  The Reds took the first step towards locking up the reigning NL MVP when they signed Votto to a three-year, $38MM pact that covered the first baseman's arbitration years.  Votto is still on pace to hit free agency as a 30-year-old in his prime, and as one agent put it, "the Reds took on all the risk" with this initial deal.  Cincinnati has put itself in position to contend over the next few seasons, so that will theoretically take care of the Great American Ballpark's attendance problems and make it possible for the team to get Votto signed to an even longer-term contract.
  • Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera signed an eight-year, $152.3MM extension with the Tigers before the 2008 season.  He'll turn 33 in 2016, and that advanced age plus his off-the-field issues make him an unlikely extension candidate.  Detroit has the money and Cabrera has put up Cooperstown-worthy numbers throughout his career, but there just may be too much risk involved for the Tigers to commit more money to the slugger.

Quick Hits: Votto, Davis, Matsuzaka, Indians

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Links for Tuesday, as the Rangers announce that Josh Hamilton will miss six to eight weeks with a non-displaced fracture of his right shoulder…

  • The other MVP from last year, Joey Votto, continues to adjust and improve his game, as Dave Cameron points out at FanGraphs. Votto appears to be chasing fewer pitches outside of the strike zone.
  • Trackman, a Danish technology company, is using 3D Doppler radar ball flight measurement to scout pitchers and pitches with hard data, as Tom Verducci reports at SI.com.
  • Doug Davis can opt out of his minor league deal with the Cubs on May 30th, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (on Twitter).
  • The Red Sox are, of course, unlikely to trade Daisuke Matsuzaka, despite his awful start yesterday. However, they are considering skipping his next start, according to the Boston Herald.
  • Yahoo's Tim Brown examines the Indians' hot start and says it provides us with the "opportunity to discover what is right in an organization that has been forced into hard decisions" since they took a 3-1 lead over the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS.

Contract Details: Votto, Saito, Thome, Bloomquist

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Updates to a few recently completed contracts…

Votto, Lozano Make Smart Deal

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Joey Votto has nothing to lose. He and agent Dan Lozano avoided arbitration and worked out a deal with the Reds that's worth $38MM in guaranteed money. And Votto doesn't hit free agency a minute later than he was originally scheduled to. Cincinnati gets cost certainty, but no free agent years and no visible discount. One agent says the Reds took on all the risk.

"The team paid him as if he was going to be a .350-40-120 player the next two years" the agent said.  "Had the team gone year to year to protect against diminished productivity or injury, would they have ever had to pay him more money than $38MM over three years?"

Recent history says the answer is no. Votto will earn more over the course of his first three arbitration years than Miguel Cabrera ($33.7MM), Albert Pujols ($32MM), Mark Teixeira ($27.9MM) or Justin Morneau ($22.5MM) did. Votto's money is now guaranteed, so the 2010 NL MVP will be cashing his checks even if he has an off-year or gets injured.

Ryan Howard ($44MM) is the one first baseman who earned more than $38MM for his first three arbitration seasons. The Phillies slugger pocketed $44MM for that chunk of his career, but one MLB insider says Howard set himself up for a bigger payday than Votto by posting better power numbers in his pre-arbitration seasons.

"Where Howard beats him is in terms of home runs," MLBTR's source said. "He had 129 to Votto’s 90. And Howard had 353 RBI to Votto’s 298. Qualitatively in terms of their rates with batting average and on-base plus slugging, they’re very, very close. The difference really is the home runs and the RBI."

The gap in power numbers would likely have been enough to keep Votto's 2011 salary in the $7-8MM range on a one-year deal. In other words, Pujols, Cabrera and Teixeira were attainable targets for Votto, but he wasn't going to approach Ryan Howard money in his three arbitration years.

This isn't to say that Reds GM Walt Jocketty was wrong to lock up his first baseman. The 2010 Sporting News Executive of the Year could look back on this deal as one that saved him money. His eight-year extension with Pujols and Lozano worked tremendously well, but that deal bought out five of Pujols' free agent seasons. 

This time the Reds guaranteed Votto more than fellow-MVPs Pujols and Morneau without obtaining the rights to any of his free agent seasons. The team gets cost certainty, but they are not getting a discount. Lozano and Votto secured a massive win that guarantees the first baseman more than most of his peers and allows him to hit free agency as a 30-year-old.

Joey Votto Agrees To Extension With Reds

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The Reds have officially agreed to a three-year extension with Joey Votto, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter). MLB.com's Mark Sheldon first reported the agreement. The deal, which is a pending a physical scheduled for Monday, will be worth $38MM.  Votto is represented by Dan Lozano.

Votto will earn $5.5MM in 2011, $9.5MM in '12m and $17MM mil in '13 along with a $6MM signing bonus, according to Jon Heyman of SI (via Twitter).  The first baseman was entering his first season of arbitration eligibility, so the contract will cover the remaining three years of team control. Because the extension only buys out his arbitration seasons, the 27-year-old will still be able to become a free agent after the 2013 season.

Following an MVP campaign in 2010, Votto would have been in line for a massive raise through arbitration. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined Votto's potential 2011 salary last August, he found that the first baseman's numbers stacked up favorably to other sluggers who received $7MM+ in their first arbitration eligible seasons.

Taking into account Votto's strong finish and MVP award, his 2011 cost likely would have been even higher than $7MM, and would only have increased over the next two years. With this deal, the arbitration process will be avoided, providing both sides with some cost certainty. While $38MM is a significant price to pay for three non-free agent years, it's not unprecedented – Ryan Howard earned $44MM from the Phillies over his first three arbitration seasons.

Votto's deal is the third major extension the Reds have agreed to this winter. In December, Bronson Arroyo signed a three-year, $35MM contract to remain in Cincinnati, and Jay Bruce signed for six years and $51MM.

SI.com's Jon Heyman first reported that Votto and the Reds were "working hard" on a three-year extension.

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