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Cliff Lee

Odds & Ends: Ludwick, Lee, D’Backs, Mets, Red Sox

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Links for Wednesday night, as we congratulate Roy Halladay for throwing baseball's first postseason no-hitter in over 50 years….

  • In a radio appearance, Jed Hoyer "essentially guarantees" that Ryan Ludwick will be a Padre next season, tweets MLB.com's Corey Brock. Ludwick will be owed an arbitration raise on this year's $5.45MM salary.
  • The Rangers are aware that Cliff Lee's outing earlier today may have driven up his offseason price tag, writes Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. "That's a good problem to have," according to GM Jon Daniels.
  • Kevin Towers has made his first major front office shake-up, firing D'Backs scouting director Tom Allison, as Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports reports. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic confirms the move and adds a few details.
  • SI.com's Jon Heyman suggests (via Twitter) that Terry Ryan may not be interested in the Mets' GM position. For his part, Ryan had no comment when Newsday's Ken Davidoff (Twitter link) asked him about the possibility.
  • New England Sports Ventures' purchase of the Liverpool Football Club will not adversely affect the group's investment in the Red Sox, according to WEEI's Alex Speier.
  • The Blue Jays will interview Rick Renteria for their managerial opening, tweets Corey Brock. Assuming Renteria isn't hired by another club as its manager, he'll be the Padres' bench coach next season (Twitter link).

Free Agent Stock Watch: Cliff Lee

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It's not often that a bonafide ace hits the free agent market, but when one does it often leads to a feeding frenzy of big market clubs and mystery teams. Current Rangers ace and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and in a few weeks he will be able to offer his services to the highest bidder on the open market for the first time in his career.

Lee's credentials are undeniable, but teams must still weigh the good against the bad when preparing to offer anyone a contract of this magnitude. Let's break it down…

The Good

  • Lee is a proven workhorse, logging 667.1 innings over the last three seasons. He's thrown at least 200 innings in five of the last six years and made at least 28 starts in six of the last seven years.
  • If you're a believer in WAR, Lee's +20.8 mark since 2008 is second only to Roy Halladay's +21.5 among all pitchers.
  • He's proven himself in the American League, so there won't be any adjustment period as far as that is concerned.
  • Lee's command is off-the-charts, evidenced by a 0.8 BB/9 this season. He also set a new single season record with a 10.28 K/BB ratio (min. 150 innings).
  • Although he mixes in a curveball, Lee is primarily a fastball-cutter-changeup pitcher without huge velocity. As Andy Pettitte and Jamie Moyer have shown, lefthanders with that arsenal can pitch forever as long as they have their health. 

The Bad

  • Lee is on the wrong side of 30, having turned 32 just over a month ago.
  • He battled some back issues last month, and has a history of oblique trouble dating back to 2003. His arm has been relatively free of injury, however.
  • As a Type-A free agent certain to be offered arbitration, any team except Texas will have to forfeit a high draft to sign him.
  • The Yankees have long had interest in Lee (they almost acquired him this summer), and if they get involved in the bidding it would make life very difficult for everyone else.

The Verdict

Despite the back issues, Lee is certain to become one of the two or three highest paid pitchers in baseball in the coming months. Every team would love to be able to add him to their staff, but it's only economically feasible for a handful. The Yankees have a leg up on everyone else not just because they can offer the most money, but also because Lee is close with CC Sabathia from their Cleveland days. 

That said, the Rangers just signed a lucrative television deal that enables them to make a competitive offer, and we'd be foolish to rule out traditional big spenders like the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers (regardless of what they've said). Even the Orioles and Nationals have shown a willingness to go big game hunting on the free agent market recently, so don't be surprised if they get involved as well. 

Lee might not be able to secure a seven-year, $161MM deal like Sabathia since he's three years older than CC was when he hit the market, but $20MM annually for five years seems like nothing more than a starting point. 

Tigers Will Not Pursue Cliff Lee Or Other Top Starters

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The Tigers will not pursue free agent-to-be Cliff Lee or another top tier free agent starter this offseason, tweets MLB.com's Jason Beck. That does not mean they will only go after back-of-the-rotation starters, however.

Detroit already boasts a frontline starter in Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer has been outstanding (153.2 IP, 2.46 ERA, 9.25 K/9) after a brief demotion to the minors in May. Those two and Rick Porcello are the only guys guaranteed spots in the Tigers rotation next year, but reliever Phil Coke will reportedly transition to starting according to John Lowe of The Detroit Free Press. Other internal option include Armando Galarraga and Andy Oliver.

The free agent market offers plenty of help beyond Lee, with quality second tier options like Hiroki Kuroda, Jorge de la Rosa, and Ted Lilly. Aaron Harang, Jon Garland, and Bronson Arroyo might also be available depending on whether or not their options are exercised. 

Mets Unlikely To Pursue Cliff Lee, Others

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The Mets aren’t planning to pursue Cliff Lee this offseason, people familiar with the team tell Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Johan Santana underwent left shoulder surgery and won’t resume throwing until the spring, but barring the unexpected, Lee won't sign with the Mets. In fact, the team probably won’t seriously consider spending on any elite free agents, whether Omar Minaya or another general manager is in charge.

Martino's sources say the Mets have too much money committed to the current roster to commit to this year's top free agents. The front office may consider trading Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez and Francisco Rodriguez, but unless the Mets shed an unexpected amount of salary, they won’t be players for the biggest names on the free agent market.

Stark On Crawford, Werth, Beltre, Torre

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Commissioner Bud Selig told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark that he’ll consider expanded instant replay and adding a second Wild Card team. Stark also passes along news on the player-agent industry and rumors from around the league:

  • The MLBPA and MLB have agreed to move up the date by which teams have to tender contracts and offer arbitration to free agents in an attempt to hurry the offseason along. This development could mean that we see fewer unsigned players late in the offseason.
  • The players’ association is working to better regulate interactions between players and agents. For example, agents can’t promise anything of value to players who they don’t represent. No more free trips or cars from rival agents!
  • Players who can go to arbitration or file for free agency will now have to check in with the MLBPA before changing agents.
  • Five of the six executives Stark surveyed named Carl Crawford this year’s best free agent position player (Jayson Werth received one vote).
  • The Yankees are more likely to bid aggressively on Crawford than Werth, but Cliff Lee figures to be their top free agent target.
  • Stark says the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants seem like the best bets to pursue Werth this offseason.
  • Adrian Beltre puzzles Stark’s sources, since he has so much upside, but tends to flash his ability most tantalizingly in contract years.
  • Three baseball people who are all acquainted with Joe Torre say the Dodgers manager would like to manage the Mets next year, but they don’t think it’ll happen.
  • Atlanta GM Frank Wren anticipates that the Braves will be in the market for a veteran reliever again this winter.

Teams With Potential Interest In Cliff Lee

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When it comes to pitching, Cliff Lee will be the prize of the upcoming offseason. Though free agent starters such as Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda would be welcome additions to many MLB rotations, they haven't pitched as well as Lee in recent years. 

After winning the 2008 Cy Young Award, Lee posted a 3.22 ERA in over 230 innings last year, striking out more than four times as many batters as he walked. So far in 2010, the lefty has a 3.28 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 0.7 BB/9 as he closes in on his fifth 200 inning season. Lee, 32, has set himself up for a big free agent payday. Here's a list of teams with possible interest:

  • Yankees – It's long been assumed that the Yankees will offer Lee a massive contract. The Bronx Bombers have outbid others before and their financial might will likely come in to play again. After all, some believe Lee will go to Siberia if that's where the money is. 
  • Tigers – The Tigers have an open rotation spot and money coming off the books. It's a natural fit.
  • Rangers – The Rangers know Lee will be pricey, but they're prepared to bid on him.
  • Nationals - GM Mike Rizzo identified starting pitching as a major need even before Stephen Strasburg underwent Tommy John surgery. The Nationals have been willing to spend on free agents in recent years.
  • Dodgers – Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla and Hiroki Kuroda hit free agency and the Dodgers have to replace that production somehow.
  • The Twins, Mets, Reds, Brewers and Padres may have interest, depending on how the next few months unfold. Lee could have an extra suitor or two if the Twins lose Carl Pavano, the Mets decide they can spend more than expected, the Reds let Bronson Arroyo walk or the Padres surprise people. At this point, it seems more likely that the Yankees, Tigers and Rangers will be Lee's most serious suitors.

Stark On Lee, Prince, Braves, Nationals

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ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark debated the pros and cons of moving back the trade deadline with a number of MLB general managers. The group was divided on whether to move the deadline to August, but Stark suggests we’re not likely to see MLB make such changes any time soon. Here are some more hot stove updates from around the league:

  • One source told Stark that Cliff Lee will follow the money this winter: “Cliff would go to Siberia if they offered him the biggest contract."
  • Rival teams expect the Brewers to look into trading Prince Fielder this winter. One executive told Stark that the Brewers were “shocked” not to see more interest in Prince before the trade deadline.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren has often jokingly told Billy Wagner that it’s too soon for him to retire. The lefty maintains that his playing days are over after 2010.
  • Wren says the Braves are assuming that Chipper Jones, who is under contract next year, will be back in 2011.
  • Nationals president Stan Kasten told Stark that Washington will be "more aggressive than we've ever been" this offseason. Presumably that means they’ll try to re-sign Adam Dunn and offer Carl Crawford a contract.

Brewers Will Prioritize Pitching In Offseason

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The Brewers' number one goal this winter will be upgrading their pitching staff, Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Specifically, the team hopes to improve their starting rotation, according to the Brewers' owner.

"We know we've got a problem, which is starting pitching," said Attanasio. "We, as an organization, need to face that reality and address it, as opposed to shrink from it or excuse it."

Attanasio goes on to say the free agent market isn't "the perfect answer," and that the team may have to look into trading a position player for pitching. Haudricourt interprets Attanasio's comments to mean the Brewers will explore the possibility of moving Prince Fielder for an impact arm. 2011 is the slugger's final arbitration-eligible season, and GM Doug Melvin has said in the past that he prefers to trade position players in the offseason, when there are more potential suitors.

If the Brewers don't receive any offers they like for Fielder, turning to the free agent market should still be an option. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe estimates that Milwaukee may clear as much as $47MM off the books this winter, which could make them "huge players" in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Cafardo adds that the club also "should be in on Bronson Arroyo," who has an $11MM club option for 2011.

Earlier this month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined the Brewers' 2011 rotation, touching upon potential trade and free agent options.

Odds & Ends: Weeks, Cliff Lee, Cody Ross

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Four years ago today, the Devil Rays traded Russell Branyan to the Padres for Evan Meek and a player to be named later (Dale Thayer).  Meek would be taken from the Rays by the Pirates in the '07 Rule 5 draft but was designated for assignment the following May.  Meek cleared waivers and the Rays rejected his return, taking cash considerations from the Bucs.  This year, Meek represented the Pirates at the All-Star game.  Today's links:

  • Rickie Weeks chose Greg Genske of Legacy Sports as his new agent after his previous representative, Lon Babby, became president of the Phoenix Suns, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
  • A Mets official told ESPN's Adam Rubin the team won't be pursuing Cliff Lee in the offseason.
  • Giants assistant GM Bobby Evans confirmed to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that they claimed Cody Ross in part to block him from going to the Padres.
  • Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia talked to WEEI's Rob Bradford about why they signed long-term extensions.  Youkilis knows he could've made more as a free agent after this season, but he points out that he's making more money than he ever thought he would.  Youk believes players should go through arbitration at least once, as he did.  For more on players who would've been eligible for free agency after this season had they not signed extensions, check out our August 16th article.
  • Bradford's colleague Alex Speier looks at Boston's recent history of acquiring players despite being included in their no-trade clauses.
  • Joe Posnanski explains that pitchers with Hall of Fame stuff getting beaten by injuries is the rule, not the exception.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Ross, Lee, White Sox, Dodgers

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Sunday night linkage..

  • The Nats still expect to see Yunesky Maya pitch for them before the end of the year, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
  • The Pirates opened up their books to the media and Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has the goods.
  • Florida held on to Cody Ross until August because they had hoped to reassert themselves in the playoff chase, writes MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
  • It doesn't sound as though Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter) likes the Mets chances of landing Cliff Lee this offseason.
  • Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets that Ken Williams isn't on the road with the White Sox but he doesn't know if the GM is going after someone on the waiver wire.
  • Dodgers skipper Joe Torre thinks that late season callups can create an unfair advantage, writes MLB.com's Evan Drellich.
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