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C.C. Sabathia

Quick Hits: Orioles, Sizemore, Sabathia, Rays

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On this date ten years ago, 42-year-old Tim Raines and his son, 22-year-old Tim Raines Jr., played outfield for the Orioles, becoming the second father-son duo to play in the same outfield (the Griffeys were the first). Here are some recent updates from around MLB…

  • Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has not yet decided on his future role with Baltimore, according to MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli. It’s expected that MacPhail will step down and that the Orioles will find a replacement. 
  • The Indians announced that Grady Sizemore underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Indians say they expect the 29-year-old to be ready for spring training 2012, but it’s hard to be overly optimistic - Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out that it’s Sizemore’s fifth surgery in three years. GM Chris Antonetti told Hoynes that he isn’t going to speculate on Sizemore’s $9MM option for 2012.
  • FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron doesn’t deny that some batters have advantages over some pitchers, but he doesn’t endorse relying on past batter/pitcher confrontations to predict  future outcomes.
  • Dave Waldstein of the New York Times explains that there's a small chance C.C. Sabathia threw his last pitch for the Yankees last night, since the left-hander can opt out of his contract after the season. When MLBTR readers voted earlier today, they were divided on Sabathia's offseason earning power.
  • Rays owner Stuart Sternberg told Jim Caple of ESPN.com that he's frustrated that winning hasn't led to improved attendance in Tampa Bay. The Rays' attendance figures dropped by 15% this year and Sternberg says it's "untenable as a model going forward."

Poll: How Much Will C.C. Sabathia Get?

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The prevailing opinion is that Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia will opt out of the remaining four years and $92MM remaining on his contract, since he could easily get more money or years.  Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wonders if this will result in the Yankees making another Alex Rodriguez-like overpay, committing at least $125MM over five years in total.

On the high end, though, Sabathia could attempt to top the guarantee he received three years ago: $161MM over seven years.  Since that offseason, Sabathia has added three 230+ inning seasons to his resume, never posting an ERA over 3.37 in a season.  He's still only 31 years old.  Last winter Cliff Lee was 32 upon signing a five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies.  At the time, we heard that Lee turned down offers guaranteeing $148MM over seven years from the Yankees and $138MM over six years (including heavy deferrals) from the Rangers.

There's more money in the game than there was three years ago, and Sabathia's resume is at least as strong as Lee's was.  Sabathia won't be able to match the 2.13 postseason ERA Lee carried into that offseason, but with a 3.47 mark in ten Yankees postseason starts C.C. hasn't been bad.  Sabathia's postseason work outside of '09 has been subpar, but I'm not sure that will affect the free agent bidding.  I see Sabathia's ceiling as Lee's $24MM salary over another seven-year term, which would be a new record for a pitcher at $168MM.  As with Lee, that seventh year will probably be a sticking point for all involved teams.  Let's hear what you think about the total dollars in today's poll.

 

Quick Hits: Mets, Rockies, La Russa, Vizquel

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Links for Sunday..

  • Mets lefties Pat Misch and Mike O'Connor declared minor league free agency, writes Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. O'Connor posted an ugly 5.22 ERA but strong 9.8 K/9 in 60 1/3 innings at Triple-A, while Misch posted a 4.00 ERA, 6.0 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in 141 2/3 innings.
  • The Rockies will look to bolster their rotation this winter, writes Jim Armstrong of The Denver Post.  General Manager Dan O'Dowd says that he'll especially be looking for an innings eater.
  • Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (via Twitter) believes that Tony La Russa can have the White Sox job if he really wants it, though that is a big if.  Heyman also tweets that he doesn't see Francona coming to the South Side of Chicago.
  • Shortstop Omar Vizquel talked with Edgar Leal Suarez of La Verdad (Spanish link, translation provided by Nick Collias) about the 2011 campaign and his future plans.  The veteran reiterated that he hopes to continue playing next season and will evaluate his opportunities after the World Series.  
  • David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter) expects the Braves to go target shortstops, corner outfielders, and utility infielders this winter.
  • Yankees left-hander C.C. Sabathia is expected to opt-out of his contract but earlier today he confessed that New York is the best place to play baseball, tweets David Waldstein of the New York Times.

Rosenthal On Votto, Epstein, Sabathia, Beinfest

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 Let's take a look at this week's edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • The Reds aren't going to shop Joey Votto but they'll at least listen to trade inquiries this winter.  Cincinnati could come back with Votto for one more year at $9.5MM and play Yonder Alonso in left field but Votto's salary rises to $17MM in 2013 and Alonso's best position is first base.  Reds owner Bob Castellini won't want to trade Votto, just as he didn't want to deal veterans at the deadline.  However, the Reds would be looking at much more value for Votto at two years away from free agency rather than one year away.
  • The Red Sox will likely avoid a historic collapse but if they don't, all bets are off.  Manager Terry Francona is technically unsigned for next season as they hold options on him for the next two seasons.  Meanwhile, GM Theo Epstein might want to leave for the Cubs regardless, if the Cubs give him more power in baseball operations.  The question still remains whether BoSox owner John Henry would allow him to talk with one year left on his contract.
  • It would be interesting to see how the Yankees react if, as expected, C.C. Sabathia opts out of his contract.  The Bombers have had contentious negotiations with key players in years past, but Sabathia is different.  The hurler is only 31-years-old and coming off of three outstanding years in New York.  If the talks to turn ugly, he'll certainly have other options.
  • Marlins GM Larry Beinfest has let it be known that he would like a chance at the Cubs position.  Rival executives say that Beinfest is unhappy with the recent reassignment of Jim Fleming the increasing involvement of owner Jeffrey Loria.  The Cubs' level of interest in Beinfest is currently unknown.

Neukom On Sabathia, Pujols, Beltran

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The Giants announced this week that managing partner and CEO Bill Neukom is going to retire at the end of the year, but that hasn't stopped him from weighing in on some of the offseason's free agents. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle has the latest (all links go to Twitter):

  • Neukom says the Giants “loved” C.C. Sabathia when he hit free agency after the 2008 season. ”I honestly believe he had a serious interest in coming with us." The Giants didn’t sign Sabathia since they weren’t prepared to pay "for years beyond which the time we think you’re not worth that amount of money.”
  • Sabathia can opt out of his seven-year, $161MM deal this offseason. 
  • Neukom weighed in on Albert Pujols with openness that MLB executives rarely show when publicly discussing other teams. “Is he worth $30MM per year for ten years?,” Neukom asked. “The Yankees don’t need a first baseman. Nor does Boston. Maybe the Cubs. Maybe the Dodgers. But is there a wealthy team that can afford to do that, say to themselves he will not be worth it for the last three or four years of a ten-year deal but we can absorb that?”
  • I examined the market for Pujols and Prince Fielder last week.
  • Neukom guesses that agent Scott Boras will ask for a five or six-year deal for Carlos Beltran. The switch-hitting outfielder says he’d consider returning to the Giants if they find a way to add some offense.

Yankees Notes: Swisher, Sabathia, Soriano, Garcia

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With a month and a half remaining in the regular season, Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at a few subplots facing the Yankees as they prepare for the playoffs and the subsequent offseason. Let's check out the highlights….

  • Nick Swisher's OPS sat at .649 heading into June, but he's posted a .941 mark since then. Given his improved play, the Yankees will likely view his $10.25MM option for next year as reasonably priced, and bring him back.
  • It's nearly a certainty that C.C. Sabathia exercises his opt-out at season's end. Sherman sees the 31-year-old asking for a raise, from the four years and $92MM he'll have left, to no less than the seven years and $161MM he originally signed for.
  • Rafael Soriano has allowed one baserunner in six outings since coming off the DL, leading Sherman to wonder if the righty's opt-out could become a factor this winter. Considering how strong the relief market will be, I can't imagine even Scott Boras finding a deal better than the two years and $23MM Soriano has remaining on his current contract.
  • There's no guarantee Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia are Yankees next season, but Garcia projects as a Type B free agent, meaning the club figures to at least offer him arbitration.
  • Speaking of starters facing free agency, Jason Marquis tells Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that he'd love to represent his hometown and pitch for the Yankees or Mets. Taking into account their divisions and home parks, the Mets may be more appealing for Marquis than the Yanks, but either way, Marquis suggests he'll "explore that avenue when the season is done."

Yankees Rumors: Adams, Sabathia, Pitchers, Igawa

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It's scorching hot in New York, but not as hot as the trade rumor circuit. Here are the latest Yankees' rumors…

  • There's a "big gap" between what the Padres are asking for Mike Adams and what the Yankees are willing to pay, reports ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter). He says a deal is unlikely.
  • In today's Insider-only blog post, Olney writes about CC Sabathia's impending opt-out clause, saying that the exclusive negotiating period between the end of the World Series and the start of free agency will be crucial to the team's efforts to bring back their ace.
  • Bob Klapisch of The Bergen Record says (on Twitter) that the Yankees are still leaning towards not trading for a starter even though Phil Hughes got hit around by the Athletics last night. Their next option is summoning Ivan Nova back from the minors.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Bill Pennington of The New York Times that he negotiated deals in 2008 and 2009 that would have let Kei Igawa return to Japan, but the lefty refused both times. Cashman also said he was prepared to trade Igawa to the Padres in 2007 after San Diego claimed him off waivers, but "ownership was not willing to let him go yet."

Quick Hits: Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Bailey

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Friday night linkage..

  • The Mariners are receiving calls on Jamey Wright and Adam Kennedy, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
  • Both the Red Sox and the Yankees have scouts at tonight's Mets–Phillies game, tweets Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers has made the rounds of his minor league teams and is willing to part with pieces at the deadline, writes Steve Gilbert of MLB.com.  Club ownership has told Towers that he will have some financial flexibility if he wants to add some payroll at the Deadline.
  • The Athletics have received calls on Andrew Bailey, though their current position is that they would need to be overwhelmed by an offer, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
  • Ken Davidoff of Newsday looks at some of the best mid-season rentals in recent years.  No surprise here, No. 1 is the Brewers' acquisition of C.C. Sabathia in 2008.
  • Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron continues his 2011 Trade Value series with a look at players ranked No. 25-21.

Heyman On K-Rod, Sabathia, Fielder, Beltran

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The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…

  • Francisco Rodriguez's agent Scott Boras spoke with Brewers GM Doug Melvin shortly after last night's trade, at which point Heyman says "Boras made the case that K-Rod should close, suggesting he wouldn't do nearly as well setting up."  Melvin was apparently noncommital in that conversation, as he has been publicly.  K-Rod would become the highest-paid reliever in baseball history if his option vests, though Boras wouldn't get commission on a contract brokered by Wasserman Media Group in 2008.  Heyman suggests an unhappy Rodriguez is a scary concept, but based on the player's tweets (in Spanish), he's content.
  • Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia "has done some selling on the Yankees" to his friend Prince Fielder.  Heyman doesn't take this as a sign the Yankees are interested in Fielder as a very expensive designated hitter, but rather an indication that Sabathia expects to stick around with the club after this season.
  • Cardinals right fielder Lance Berkman told Yahoo's Jeff Passan he expects Fielder to top Albert Pujols in total dollars due to the age difference, but Albert should get the higher average annual value.
  • Heyman sees the Tigers as a potential suitor for Mets right fielder Carlos Beltran.  He believes the Tigers could add a bat at second base, third base, or outfield.

Taking Stock Of C.C. Sabathia’s Value

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It was on this date in 2008 that the Indians sent C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers. He was virtually unbeatable in his 17 starts with Milwaukee, posting a 1.65 ERA and leading the Brewers to their first postseason appearance since 1982.  

C.C. Sabathia

After the season, Sabathia signed his current seven-year, $161MM contract with the Yankees, a deal that includes an opt-out clause this offseason. Sabathia has said before that he intends to stay in New York, but he hasn’t completely ruled out the possibility of opting out of the remaining four years and $92MM on his contract. We won’t know more for a while, since the sides aren’t going to discuss the opt-out during the season.

On this date in 2009 and 2010, I looked back at the trade that sent the big left-hander to Milwaukee, but today I’m going to look ahead to the offseason and what the market for Sabathia’s services might look like. 

Sabathia, the 2007 Cy Young Award winner, is an annual threat to add a second Cy Young to his mantle. He averaged a 3.27 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 234 innings in 2009-10, finishing in the top four in Cy Young voting each season. So far in 2011, his numbers are as good as ever; he has a 2.90 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 136 2/3 innings. 

Sabathia stands out as one of the best whether you're looking at traditional stats or advanced metrics. Some general managers will note that Sabathia leads the league in wins (12) for the third consecutive season. Others will note that he leads American League starters in Wins Above Replacement this year (4.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs) and that Roy Halladay is the only pitcher with more WAR over the course of the past ten seasons. 

Sabathia throws hard (average fastball velocity of 93.3 mph), induces ground balls (48.2% ground ball rate) and pitches deep into games (in the AL only Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez have logged more innings) all while playing in the game's toughest division.

Later this month, Sabathia will turn 31, so obtaining another seven-year deal would require some especially skillful negotiating on the part of his representatives at Legacy Sports. His former teammate, Cliff Lee, did sign a five-year deal as a 32-year-old, however. 

Though it’s too early to tell whether Sabathia will opt out, any team that can contemplate a nine-figure investment in a pitcher would figure to have strong interest if he decides to test the market. The Yankees, naturally, would be at the top of any such list, so the left-hander may end up re-signing in New York, just as Alex Rodriguez did after opting out of his contract at the end of the 2007 season.

Sabathia won’t necessarily topple his old contract, like Rodriguez did in '07, since he'll be 31 this offseason. But Sabathia's consistent success has likely set him up for considerably more than $92MM in guaranteed money this winter, whether it's with the Yankees or somebody else.

Photo Courtesy Icon SMI.

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