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Albert Pujols

Central Notes: Indians, La Russa, Verlander

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A few links to pass along regarding clubs in the Central divisions …

Quick Hits: Astros, Yankees, Mets, Pujols, Fielder

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Some links on this Saturday afternoon..

  • Astros GM Ed Wade isn't sure yet if pitching coach Doug Brocail will return next year, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  Brocail retired after the 2009 season and was working as a special assistant to Wade this year when he took over as pitching coach when Brad Arnsberg was let go in June.
  • Both the Yankees and Mets will have to start making some critical decisions about which prospects they need to protect ahead of the Rule V draft this winter, writes Tim Bontemps of the New York Post.  It seems likely that the Mets will roll the dice and leave once-promising right-hander Brad Holt unprotected while the Bombers could leave switch-pitcher Pat Venditte exposed.
  • With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder both hitting the free agent market this winter, the battle between agents Dan Lozano and Scott Boras will be fun to watch, writes Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • Giants managing partner and CEO Bill Neukom wanted the team to take a more patient approach to hitting when he took over but Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle says that never came to be.

No Six Or Seven-Year Deals For Blue Jays

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The last time the Blue Jays signed a player to a seven-year deal, it didn’t work nearly as well as expected. Vernon Wells, who agreed to a seven-year, $126MM contract with the club in 2006, now plays in Anaheim and no one on the Blue Jays has anything more than a five-year deal. That’s not about to change, since president Paul Beeston won’t approve six or seven-year deals, according to Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail.

Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, the offseason’s top free agents and the favorite targets of many would-be GMs in the stands at Rogers Centre, have set themselves up for six, seven or eight-year deals in free agency. Though Adam Lind has posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage in successive seasons, the Blue Jays remain hesitant to spend big on the open market.

“When we look at free agents, we better believe those guys are a clear upgrade over what we have internally,” Alex Anthopoulos told Blair.

The GM acknowledges that the 75-74 Blue Jays have some “pretty glaring” issues to address over the winter. However, the Blue Jays say they’re happier with the talent on the current edition of the team than they were this time last year.

When I examined the market for Pujols and Fielder last week, I suggested they were possible fits in Toronto.

Neukom On Sabathia, Pujols, Beltran

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The Giants announced this week that managing partner and CEO Bill Neukom is going to retire at the end of the year, but that hasn't stopped him from weighing in on some of the offseason's free agents. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle has the latest (all links go to Twitter):

  • Neukom says the Giants “loved” C.C. Sabathia when he hit free agency after the 2008 season. ”I honestly believe he had a serious interest in coming with us." The Giants didn’t sign Sabathia since they weren’t prepared to pay "for years beyond which the time we think you’re not worth that amount of money.”
  • Sabathia can opt out of his seven-year, $161MM deal this offseason. 
  • Neukom weighed in on Albert Pujols with openness that MLB executives rarely show when publicly discussing other teams. “Is he worth $30MM per year for ten years?,” Neukom asked. “The Yankees don’t need a first baseman. Nor does Boston. Maybe the Cubs. Maybe the Dodgers. But is there a wealthy team that can afford to do that, say to themselves he will not be worth it for the last three or four years of a ten-year deal but we can absorb that?”
  • I examined the market for Pujols and Prince Fielder last week.
  • Neukom guesses that agent Scott Boras will ask for a five or six-year deal for Carlos Beltran. The switch-hitting outfielder says he’d consider returning to the Giants if they find a way to add some offense.

Cubs Rumors: Aramis, Jocketty, LaHair

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The Cubs currently project for the seventh overall pick in next year's draft.  Once that is determined, things should get interesting on the North Side.  The latest:

  • The Reds will discuss the idea of signing third baseman Aramis Ramirez if he reaches free agency, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  I think signing Ramirez would really push the Reds' payroll to the limit, assuming they also pick up Brandon Phillips' club option.  The Cubs must decide between Ramirez's $16MM club option and a $2MM buyout within five days of the end of the World Series, so the team's new GM may not yet be in place.  After the Cubs decide, Ramirez has five days to make his choice on the option (declining would mean forfeiting the buyout).  Ramirez wants to stay, but he recently told ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine he desires a two or three-year deal. 
  • One scenario raised during informal discussions (presumably ones including owner Tom Ricketts) has the Cubs hiring current Reds GM Walt Jocketty, which could then lead to the team snaring Tony La Russa to manage and Albert Pujols to play first base, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Jocketty declined to comment, saying that he's happy in Cincinnati, but also lavished praise on the Cubs job and noted that the team extending farm director Oneri Fleita "shouldn't be" a hindrance.  Wittenmyer says the Cubs are gathering information on Andrew Friedman, Billy Beane, Dan Evans, and Ned Colletti so far.  Ricketts has yet to ask permission to speak to any GM under contract, writes Levine.  In a chat conducted yesterday, Levine guessed Rick Hahn would be the next Cubs' GM.
  • Also in that chat, Levine wrote that Ricketts has identified the Cubs' primary need to be two or three starting pitchers.  The beat writer does not think the team will spend their money this offseason on position players.  He predicts a payroll in the $120-130MM range.
  • Numerous Japanese teams have been scouting and are prepared to make offers to Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair, reports Levine.  LaHair is intrigued but hopes to remain in the Majors.  The 28-year-old snagged Pacific Coast League MVP honors by hitting .331/.405/.664 with 38 home runs in 523 plate appearances, and he's carried that success to the bigs in an eight-game stint.  Former Cubs first baseman Micah Hoffpauir went the Japan route a year ago, but is hitting .245/.325/.429 for the Nippon Ham Fighters this year.

Where The Market For Pujols & Fielder Stands

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With three weeks to go in the regular season, it’s clear that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will be the most tempting free agents on the market this offseason. With all due respect to Jose Reyes, C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson, the two first basemen are likely to command the biggest free agent contracts of the winter.  

Prince Pujols

Pujols, 31, is having the worst season of his career in terms of average (.293), on-base percentage (.366) and slugging percentage (.549), but the three-time MVP leads the National League in homers and is tenth in OPS. Not bad for an off-year.

Fielder has a .292/.405/.542 line with 31 homers and a league-leading 108 runs batted in. Plus, he’s still just 27 years old. Like Pujols, Fielder will cost a top draft pick, but teams are prepared to surrender those picks for elite production.

Not every team needs a first baseman and not every team can afford a nine-figure contract for a single player, regardless of how productive he is. Heading into the season, we knew that the market for Fielder and Pujols would be limited to half of the teams in baseball at the absolute best. Now that we’re 140 games into the season, we have a sense of which clubs have a need at first base and which ones don’t. 

Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes provided a reason why each MLB team could back away from Fielder, who has always seemed more likely to test free agency than Pujols. At this point, Pujols must also want to see what’s out there and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says he’s ready for his franchise player to test the market.

Fielder’s representative, Scott Boras, and Pujols’ representative, Dan Lozano, have no doubt started sizing the first base market already. Here’s how it looks: 

Five Teams Likely To Have Interest

The Cardinals want Pujols back, so we’ll hear about them until he signs. Similarly, the Brewers will likely express some interest in bringing Fielder back, though their chances of re-signing him have never seemed particularly good.

The new Cubs general manager could grab some headlines by signing Pujols or Fielder away from a division rival and replacing free agent Carlos Pena with a more complete player. The Rangers, who have Michael Young and Mike Napoli in the mix at first base, have been aggressive under new ownership, signing Adrian Beltre and pursuing Cliff Lee.

Despite the financial troubles of owner Frank McCourt, we can’t rule out the Dodgers. James Loney has been doing his best to avoid the non-tender that once seemed inevitable, but his torrid August won’t make GM Ned Colletti forget about Pujols and Fielder.

Ten Teams The Agents Would Do Well To Engage

The Yankees and Red Sox already have elite first basemen, so Lozano and Boras would have to sell the teams (and potentially their clients) on DH roles. Both clubs will have more pressing needs to address, but you can’t rule out either, so prepare to hear about Boston and New York in connection with the two first basemen.

Like the Cubs, the Orioles will likely have a new general manager in town. That person will have to decide whether it’s worth spending big instead of relying on in-house options like Luke Scott, Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds. The Mariners are in a similar situation to the Orioles in that they don’t appear poised to contend in 2012 and have internal options, namely Justin Smoak and Mike Carp.

Blue Jays fans, prepare yourselves for a November MLBTR headline that reads something like this: ‘Blue Jays Interested In Fielder, Pujols.’ Toronto’s front office is tight-lipped about free agent moves, so many available players get linked to the Jays, even when the club’s interest is tepid. The Jays have money and would be a better team with an elite first baseman, so that headline may be worth clicking on.

The Angels have two first basemen (Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo) and five outfielders (Peter Bourjos, Mike Trout, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu) for five total spots. Unless GM Tony Reagins gets really creative on the trade market, I don’t see much room at first or DH.

The same could be said about the Nationals, who have Mike Morse and Adam LaRoche at first base, but let’s not rule Washington out. Their connection with Boras has been well-documented and they may view Pujols and Fielder as the kind of player who could push them into contention (and push Morse to the outfield).

Though there may be some rumblings about the Marlins’ potential interest, it’s hard to imagine them coming through with the winning bid, even as they head into a new ballpark. Gaby Sanchez’s presence further lessens the likelihood of a deal, but both agents could have interest in engaging Florida just in case.

The D’Backs and Giants are sleepers in the Pujols-Fielder sweepstakes. The NL West rivals could both use a boost at first base (only four clubs have gotten a lower OPS from their first basemen this year), but both have incumbents at the position. Would it be that hard to find another role for Paul Goldschmidt? How about relegating Aubrey Huff to the bench and moving Brandon Belt to the outfield? These are question the D’Backs and Giants could ask themselves this offseason. 

15 Teams That Don’t Appear To Be Fits

The Rays, Indians, Pirates, Padres and Athletics don’t have the money to get involved (though the latter three teams rank 28th, 29th and 30th in OPS at first base this year).

It’s hard to imagine Pujols or Fielder signing with an AL Central club, since the Tigers, White Sox, Twins and Royals already have first basemen and/or DHs in place. That leaves the Rockies, Astros, Reds, Braves, Mets and Phillies, who all have established first basemen and bigger offseason needs.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Pujols, Mozeliak Talk Contract

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Albert Pujols told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he doesn’t want to think about his next contract, though he knows that “things will start to get crazy again” in a matter of weeks when he hits free agency for the first time in his career. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, who has’t discussed a contract with Pujols since Spring Training, says he still aims to lock the first baseman up to ensure that he spends the rest of his career in St. Louis.

"When we get to October," Mozeliak told Nightengale, "we'll start over and go from there. I can't characterize where we'll begin, but we've waited this long, we might want to see where the market brings."

The Cardinals offered Pujols a nine-year deal worth about $195MM last offseason, Nightengale reports. Earlier today, Jon Heyman of SI.com reported that the Cardinals' nine-year offer would have been worth $210MM and noted that the Cards aren't overly confident about retaining their biggest star. In any case, the offers weren’t enough to entice the 31-year-old Pujols. He and agent Dan Lozano were seeking a ten-year deal in the $230MM range.

There’s a long list of teams that could enter the sweepstakes for Pujols, who leads the National League with 34 homers and has a .293/.366/.549 line this year in his worst MLB season. There are rumblings that the Marlins may look to pursue Pujols or fellow free agent Prince Fielder this offseason before heading into their new stadium, according to Nightengale.

Heyman On Pujols, Huntington, C.J. Wilson

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SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with a discussion of the Albert Pujols situation, which is due to flare up once the season ends.  Heyman's sources say the Cardinals are "not overly confident" about retaining Pujols.  Heyman hears the Cardinals are not inclined to increase their offer much from nine years and around $210MM, although the SI writer thinks the team could reduce the number of years to boost the average annual value past the $23MM range.  Heyman hears Pujols is "not overly thrilled" that the Cardinals' offer last winter wouldn't place him in the top ten among MLB player salaries, though by my count there are only five players currently averaging $23MM or more as their AAV.

Heyman has plenty more musings on the Pujols topic in the column; here are a few other highlights…

  • The Pirates intend to extend the contract of GM Neal Huntington.  He says the Bucs have waited for the draft and trade deadlines to pass.  Huntington was hired four years ago.
  • "There are some who could see" Rangers ace C.J. Wilson "wanting to go to his native Southern California."  Heyman views the Angels as a threat for Wilson.
  • Heyman says Angels people suggest they would have been willing to resume extension talks with Jered Weaver next year if they hadn't reached a deal by the team's deadline this year.  
  • The Twins are interested in re-signing reliever Joe Nathan, though they won't be picking up his $12MM option.

Quick Hits: Strasburg, Pujols, Wilken

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Weather permitting, Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg will make his 2011 MLB debut tonight, almost one year from the day of having Tommy John surgery performed on his elbow.  Whether or not Strasmas is cancelled, here are today's links…

  • Strasburg still needs to knock a little rust off his command, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told ESPN's Jayson Stark.  Stark takes the stance that the Nationals are not rushing Strasburg back.  Stark's colleague Keith Law has a fantastic article discussing the Tommy John procedure and recovery, with help from pitchers Jarrod Parker and Chad Durbin.  For a look at what Strasburg did during his down time and how he's changed in the last year, check out Dave Sheinin's article from the Washington Post.
  • SI's Jon Heyman hears that the Cardinals are "not completely confident" Albert Pujols will remain in St. Louis, which is one reason they didn't trade Lance Berkman (Twitter link).
  • The Chicago Sun-Times talked to Tim Wilken, the Cubs' director of amateur and professional scouting, about the possibility of an extension in the wake of Oneri Fleita's four-year deal.  Such a move would quickly sour many Cubs GM candidates, hears Yahoo's Jeff Passan (Twitter link).  Wilken recently told Baseball America's Phil Rogers that it's been 20 years since he's had the kind of ownership commitment toward draft and international free agent spending that he had in 2011.
  • NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman explains why he's predicted against Yu Darvish being posted in past years, but also outlines why he can see the righty being posted this winter.
  • Tigers righty Doug Fister has "basically turned himself into the modern version of Brad Radke," writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.  Does he represent the best acquisition by a contender this summer?  Hunter Pence belongs in that discussion as well.

Rosenthal On Papelbon, Yankees, Fielder, Pujols

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A Marlins shakeup is looming and the focus is on the team's minor league system, says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in this week's edition of Full Count.  Jim Fleming, the vice president of player development and scouting, has informed his staff that he will be reassigned.  The club's revenues will grow once they move into their new stadium but they still need to do a better job of producing homegrown talent.  Let's take a look at some more highlights from Full Count..

  • The Red Sox are reluctant to give lucrative long-term contracts to closers, but with Jonathan Papelbon they might not be able to resist.  Papelbon will want an increase from his $12MM salary, perhaps something closer to Mariano Rivera's $15MM average yearly pay.  It's possible that no team will want to go there but Rivera has just one year left on his deal and Rafael Soriano hardly looks like the heir to Mo's throne.  Rosenthal wonders aloud if the Yankees would jump in and offer Papelbon a backloaded deal to take over as closer.
  • The Rangers would seem to be an obvious suitor for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, especially in light of Mitch Moreland's recent struggles.  Texas will have to spend on pitching if they lose C.J. Wilson in free agency and they might prefer to keep both their payroll and roster flexible.  Josh Hamilton is only one year away from free agency and Ian Kinsler is only two years away. 
  • The sale of the Astros to Jim Crane is not yet official and some in baseball believe that he will not be approved as owner.  Others, however, view a deal as inevitable.  Current owner Drayton McLane wants out and Crane is offering a fair price for the club.  Perhaps most importantly, there does not appear to be any other bidders.  McLane has been loyal to the commissioner's office and he will want to see that loyalty reciprocated.
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