Non-Tender Candidate: Andrew Miller
There is no commodity in baseball more precious than young power pitching, and that goes double if the player happens to be lefthanded. That's the case with Andrew Miller of the Marlins, the sixth overall pick in the 2006 draft and one of the key pieces in the December 2007 trade that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit.
It's easy to forget that he's still just 25 years old, but it seems like Miller had lived a baseball lifetime. He made his big league debut a few weeks after signing his first contract, throwing 10.1 innings of low-pressure relief down the stretch for Jim Leyland's club. After a brief minor league tune-up the next year, Miller found himself in the Tigers' rotation at midsummer, posting a 5.63 ERA in 13 starts. The next year he was in Florida, and in his three seasons with the Fish he's pitched to a 5.89 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 in 220 innings.
Miller has been bouncing back and forth between the majors and minors throughout his career as he's struggled to find consistency with his delivery and command, and as a result he's now out of options. If the Marlins want to sent him to minors next year, he'll have to first be exposed to the other 29 teams on waivers. There's a chance that will be a non-issue though, because Florida may opt to simply non-tender Miller this offseason.
Thanks to the major league contract he signed out of the draft, Miller earned a touch over $1.79MM in 2010. That original deal expired after 2009, though it paid him $1.575MM that season, which was used as a base for his 2010 compensation. Considering how poorly he's pitched, not to mention the system in general, Miller wouldn't have come close to a seven-figure salary in either of the last two years if he was a regular player with less than three years of service time. Given their financial restraints, it's not tough to see why the Marlins may opt to pass on paying Miller close to $2MM in 2011.
Despite all that, it's tough to walk away from a young lefty that still touches the mid-90's with his fastball. The Kevin Towers led Padres wanted Miller in a potential Heath Bell trade last year, and I'm sure general manager Michael Hill would be able to drum up some trade interest if he looks around. That would be preferable than a non-tender, since at least Florida would get something other than payroll relief in return.
What do you think the Marlins will do with Miller this offseason? Click here to vote and here to see the results. Thanks in advance.
Non-Tender Candidate: Mike Fontenot
In mid-August the Giants struck a deal with the Cubs to acquire infielder Mike Fontenot in exchange for minor league center fielder Evan Crawford. The Cubs chose to part ways with the 30-year-old who was unable to give an encore performance of his strong 2008 campaign. In that season he delivered a slash line of .305/.395/.514 with nine homers. His flat 2010 numbers with the Cubbies (91 OPS+) and the rise of Starlin Castro made Fontenot expendable.
Fontenot didn't set the world on fire at the end of the Giants' regular season either, hitting .282/.329/.310 in 76 plate appearances. While he has the ability to play shortstop and third base, his best position is second base. Second base is, of course, already occupied by Freddy Sanchez, who is under contract through 2011. While he could conceivably be a cheap alternative if the Giants choose not to retain Juan Uribe, his light-hitting and weak play at shortstop make that unlikely.
As for Fontenot, he earned $1MM and will head to arbitration this winter for the second time. While he's not a bad utility option to keep around, the Giants could very well choose to non-tender him. After all, they didn't exactly give up a ton to acquire him this year. What do you think San Francisco will do with Fontenot? Click here to vote, and here to view the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: Jack Cust
Jack Cust isn’t the home run threat he once was, so even in an offseason when the A's are prioritizing power, he doesn’t have any assurances that an offer of arbitration will come his way. The A’s non-tendered him last winter after a third consecutive season of 25-plus home runs. This year, his power dropped off, so there’s a real possibility that GM Billy Beane non-tenders Cust once again.
Cust, 32 in January, hit just 13 homers this year, but still managed to reach base. He posted a robust .395 on base average and batted .272. That figure is deceptive, though; Cust’s career-high average was inflated by his unsustainable .387 average on balls in play.
Cust is a power hitter who no longer hits for power and he doesn’t have much to fall back on other than his walks. He strikes out too much, doesn’t inspire confidence on defense (he played just 16 games in the outfield this year) and is working off of a $2.65MM base salary.
Offering Cust arbitration could cost $3-4MM, but it seems more likely that the A’s will non-tender him and try to renegotiate a contract worth less guaranteed money if they have interest in keeping him. The A’s would risk losing Cust to another team if they non-tender him, but they saved money when they took that chance a year ago.
Conor Jackson and Kevin Kouzmanoff are also among Oakland's non-tender candidates, but we've already voted on them. It's time to see what you think the A's will do with Cust. Click here to vote and here to view the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: John Maine
There's no question that John Maine's season began poorly. He struggled through nine early-season starts and didn't pitch after injuring his shoulder in May. If there was any doubt that he was a non-tender candidate, it disappeared later this summer when it became apparent that he would need season-ending arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder.
Before the injury sidelined Maine, he posted a 6.13 ERA in 39.2 innings and walked too many hitters, so the Mets may be reluctant to offer the 29-year-old arbitration. Sure, Maine has potential, but he made $3.3MM this year and would make a comparable amount if the Mets tender him a contract.
Maine is still young and he has been effective in the past, so it's easy to see how the Mets might be tempted to keep him. The right-hander pitched to a 4.01 ERA in 87 starts from 2006-09 with 7.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. That kind of production has value, even if Maine currently sits behind Johan Santana (also recovering from surgery), R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey and Jenrry Mejia in the team's projected rotation.
If the Mets non-tender Maine, other teams would likely have cautious interest. There are no guarantees for pitchers returning from arthroscopic shoulder surgery, as another non-tender candidate knows well. Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent a similar operation almost exactly one year before Maine did, didn't pitch in 2010. The Mets would be taking on a considerable risk by offering a few million dollars in arbitration.
When he examined the Mets arbitration class, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes argued that Maine will likely be non-tendered this December. I agree - Maine will probably find himself competing for jobs alongside free agent starters before long. That's no sure thing, though, especially with a new GM on his way in, so it's still worth asking whether the Mets will tender the righty a contract. Click here to vote on Maine's future in New York and here to view the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: Fred Lewis
Next season in Toronto, the Blue Jays will likely roll out an outfield of Jose Bautista, Travis Snider, and Vernon Wells. Meanwhile, Fred Lewis says that he considers himself an everyday position player. The veteran will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is due for a raise.
In 480 plate appearances this season, Lewis hit .262/.332/.414 with eight homers. While the soon-to-be 30-year-old jumped out to a hot start with the Jays, he received less playing time late in the season.
Even if Lewis does have a change of heart and agrees to stay on in a reserve role, Toronto could still go in a different (and cheaper) direction by using DeWayne Wise as their fourth outfielder. While Wise likely won't bring the same offensive production as Lewis, his defense (career 8.4 UZR/150) tops what Lewis has been able to do in the outfield (career -2.6 UZR/150)
With all of this in mind, do you believe that the Blue Jays will non-tender Lewis this winter? Click here to vote and here to view the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: Todd Coffey
Coming into the 2010 season, the back of the Brewers' bullpen appeared to be one of the most reliable areas of the team's pitching staff. Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, and Todd Coffey were all coming off strong 2009 campaigns, and looked poised to hold down the late innings in Milwaukee. All three right-handers struggled this year though, with Hoffman losing the closer's job and Hawkins missing most of the season due to shoulder trouble.
Hawkins is under contract for 2011 and Hoffman's time in Milwaukee is likely over, but the team will face a decision on Coffey in the coming weeks. The 30-year-old will be arbitration-eligible for the final time and, in spite of his underwhelming performance, probably has a slight raise coming on this year's $2.025MM salary.
Prior to the 2010 season, Coffey had been one of the team's best relievers, posting a 2.67 ERA over 91 innings since the 2008 waiver claim that sent him from Cincinnati to Milwaukee. This year, however, in 62.1 IP, Coffey's ERA ballooned to 4.76. Of course, his numbers weren't all bad; his walk and home run rates were only slightly above his career averages, and he recorded a career-best strikeout rate (8.1 K/9). Whether or not the Brewers decide to tender him a contract this year will depend on if they believe those peripheral stats suggest a bounceback 2011 season is in the cards.
The Brewers' bullpen pitched 518 innings, third-most in the National League, and ranked just 12th in the NL in ERA (4.48). It figures to be an area the team will focus on improving this winter, but before they look to the free agent market, the Brewers will need to make a decision on Coffey. Will the righty be non-tendered this offseason? Click here to weigh in, and click here to view the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: James Loney
Dodgers first baseman James Loney does not intuitively strike me as a non-tender candidate – the team was reportedly unwilling to part with him in July in a Cliff Lee trade. However, Loney had a terrible final two months and finished with the worst numbers of his career. Let's examine his case.
Loney, 27 in May, agreed on a $3.1MM deal with the Dodgers for 2010. He was arbitration eligible for the first time after posting another 13 home run, 90 RBI season. This year Loney still managed ten home runs and 88 RBIs, but his batting average and walk rate slipped from '09. He finished at .267/.329/.395, disappointing rates for a first baseman.
Loney's basic career numbers: a .288 average, 55 home runs, 353 RBIs, 267 runs, and 25 steals in 2436 plate appearances across 624 games. Potential comparables Corey Hart, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross, and Josh Willingham averaged a raise of about $1.8MM, which would put Loney at $4.9MM for 2011. These comparables aren't perfect; Loney bests them all in average and RBIs but falls short in home runs. Hart, coming off a lousy platform year himself after the '09 season, had to beat the Brewers to get his $1.55MM raise. The Brewers were rewarded for tendering Hart a contract, as he had a big 2010 season.
Chances are some team would be willing to give Loney a shot at $4.5-5MM next year even if the Dodgers prefer a change at first base. Loney's team will have the ability to retain him for 2012 if they're happy with his '11 results. MLB.com's Bill Ladson speculated on Friday that the Nationals would go after Loney hard if the Dodgers make him available.
We'll still pose the question in a poll: will the Dodgers non-tender Loney? Click here to vote and here to see the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: Brian Bannister
One of Dayton Moore's very first moves as general manager of the Royals was to swap hard-throwing but enigmatic reliever Ambiorix Burgos to the Mets for then 25-year-old righthander Brian Bannister. Bannister had just 38 big league innings to his credit at the time (4.26 ERA) but he was consistently excellent in minors (3.31 career minor league ERA at the time of the trade) and considered ready to step into a big league rotation. After a brief tune-up in Triple-A to start the 2007 season, the now 29-year-old Bannister joined Kansas City's starting staff and has remained there ever since.
Nearly four full years after the fact, it's easy to declare Moore the winner of the trade. Not only has Bannister out-WAR'ed Burgos 7.1 to 0.0 since the deal, but the latter hasn't even pitched since 2008 due to a litany of legal issues. Perhaps best known for his love of advanced statistics, Bannister has given the Royals 629.1 innings across 108 starts (and one relief appearance) in his four seasons with the team, posting 5.13 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Shoulder tendinitis this August prevented him from eclipsing the 150 inning mark for a fourth straight season.
After making $2.3MM in 2010, Bannister will go through the arbitration process one final time this winter before becoming a free agent after next season. He posted an ugly 6.34 ERA in 127.2 innings this year, and the .302/.365/.503 line opponents managed against him approximates Ryan Braun's 2010 production (.304/.365/.501). Never a big stuff guy, Bannister's fastball actually crept up in the last few seasons and now sits right around 90 mph.
Bannister was a fine piece when he was making six figures, but now that he's entered into multi-million dollar territory, Moore will assuredly think twice before tendering the righty a contract this offseason. In fact, Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star recently predicted that the team will shop Bannister around this offseason and could non-tender him if they don't find a taker. Bannister's name has been featured at each of the last two trade deadlines, but obviously no deal was made and now the team is facing the possibility of losing him for nothing.
If you haven't seen it already, or if you just want to read it again, make sure you check out the Q&A Tim conducted with Bannister back in 2008 (parts one, two, and three). Once you're done with that, click here to vote about what you think the Royals will do with Bannister after he season, and here to see the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: Edwin Encarnacion
Edwin Encarnacion will enter his final year of arbitration eligibility this winter, and will be an interesting case for the Toronto Blue Jays. Encarnacion signed a two-year, $7.6MM deal with the Reds before 2009 that covered his first two arbitration seasons, paying him $2MM in '09 and $4.75MM this year. With no contract for 2011 though, the 27-year-old will be a non-tender candidate.
Arguably, the Reds and Jays would have been better off if Encarnacion had gone year to year in arbitration. When he signed his deal, he was coming off a 2008 season in which he'd hit .251/.340/.466 and set a career high in home runs (26). In 669 plate appearances since then, the third baseman has hit .233/.311/.427 with an OPS+ of 95, and was even briefly sent to the minors. The production isn't a huge step down from his '08 numbers, but there are probably better ways for the Jays to spend $4.75MM.
The argument for tendering Encarnacion a contract for next season revolves primarily around his power potential. Even though his OBP and SLG rates have slipped, he's still hitting the ball out of the park, with 23 homers in 504 plate appearances since joining the Jays. Additionally, while "E-5" has continued to make his share of errant throws across the diamond, he's actually enjoying the best defensive season of his career, according to UZR.
The Jays will have some money coming off the books this summer, with Lyle Overbay, John Buck, Scott Downs, and others facing free agency. They'll be able to afford to bring Encarnacion back if they want to, but the bet here is that he won't be tendered a contract. Given Jose Bautista's ability to play either at third base or in the outfield, the team would have some flexibility if they had to replace Encarnacion.
Do you think Encarnacion will be non-tendered this offseason? Click here to vote, and click here to view the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: Scott Hairston
As we discussed on the weekend, the four-player January trade between the Athletics and Padres included at least one 2010 non-tender candidate, in Kevin Kouzmanoff. For their part though, the A's gave up a player who appears even likelier to be non-tendered this offseason: Scott Hairston.
When the Padres re-acquired Hairston last winter, he was coming off one of his finest seasons in the bigs. Splitting time between San Diego and Oakland, who traded for him last July, Hairston hit .265/.307/.456 overall, with the better half of his season coming in San Diego (.299/.358/.533). Unfortunately for Hairston and the Padres, his second stint with the club hasn't been as successful. The 30-year-old battled a hamstring injury earlier in the season, and has hit just .215/.298/.353 in 329 plate appearances. Hairston's struggles can't be blamed on his pitcher-friendly home park either; he has an ugly .193/.283/.320 slash line on the road.
Hairston is earning $2.45MM this year and has seen the Padres' outfield get a little more crowded with the acquisition of Ryan Ludwick. Both players will enter their final season of arbitration eligibility in 2011, and Hairston's chances of being tendered a contract might depend in part on what the Padres do with Ludwick. Given Ludwick's larger 2010 salary ($5.45MM) and the fact that his production for the Padres (.239/.330/.368) hasn't been much better than Hairston's, it's conceivable that the team could decide to part ways with the former Cardinal.
Even with Ludwick out of the picture, however, Hairston would be lucky to be tendered a contract. The Padres may prefer to turn to a cheaper outfield option rather than spending $2.5MM+ to retain Hairston for another year. Click here to vote on the Padres' decision, and click here to view the results.