Poll: Who Will Win The American League East?

Tonight at Camden Yards, the Orioles and Yankees begin a four-game series that will serve as the most important September baseball in Baltimore in 15 years.  The Yankees seemingly had the AL East in hand at the All-Star break, but the Bombers have won just 20 of 45 games since July 19 and now sit just one game ahead of the surprising O's, who refuse to fade away. 

Despite a -21 run differential, the Orioles have relied on a superb bullpen and an astonishing 24-7 record in one-run games to stay within sight of their first postseason berth (and winning season) since 1997.  Predicted by most pundits to finish last in the AL East and then predicted to fall back to earth after a strong start, Baltimore has instead gotten even better, posting a 21-11 record in August and September.  While Adam Jones has enjoyed a breakout year, the O's lineup has been largely boosted by hitters going on timely hot streaks — Nick Markakis has a .902 OPS since being moved to the leadoff spot, Mark Reynolds has a .917 OPS and 10 homers since July 19 and unheralded bench players like Lew Ford and Nate McLouth have stepped up with key hits. 

The Orioles have 10 games remaining against the Yankees and Rays but otherwise has a fairly favorable schedule over the rest of the season, with only a three-game series in Oakland standing out as another battle with a playoff contender.  The O's do have six games remaining against the Red Sox, however, and it would be ironic if Boston avenged their 2011 collapse in Baltimore by spoiling the Orioles' postseason hopes.

Injuries have played a major role in the Yankees' slide, as C.C. Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Brett Gardner, Ivan Nova and Andy Pettitte have all spent time on the DL, and in the cases of Rivera and Gardner, missed much of the season.  Beyond health, however, New York has also been plagued by a lack of situational hitting, as the Yankees have had trouble scoring with runners in position.  The Yankees' main offensive weapon is the solo home run — not a bad problem to have, but it leads to a somewhat one-dimensional offense that has issues generating runs when the ball isn't flying out of the park.

The Yankees have just seven remaining games against the Rays and Orioles and also face the A's in a three-game series in September.  Beyond those matchups, the Yankees' other 16 games are against the Twins, Red Sox and Blue Jays, so there's plenty of opportunity for the Bombers to re-establish their lead atop the division.

With so much media focus within the division going to the Orioles' Cinderella run, the Yankees' possible collapse and the Red Sox and Blue Jays' disappointing seasons, the Rays' surge back into the playoff race has flown under the radar.  Tampa Bay was just 49-47 on July 22 in large part due to a lack of offensive production, as the likes of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena were underperforming while Evan Longoria was on the disabled list.  Since that date, however, the Rays are 26-15 and sit just 2.5 games back of first place.  With Longoria back and one of the league's best starting rotations in fine form, the Rays are positioned to make another playoff appearance. 

The Rays have nine games remaining against the O's and Yankees, plus a four-game set with the White Sox and a three-game series with the Rangers beginning on Friday.

The Orioles currently hold the top wild card slot, with the Rays 1.5 games behind Oakland for the second wild card.  It's very possible that the two division runners-up could make the postseason anyway, though obviously all three teams would prefer to win the AL East and avoid the sudden-death wild card game.  Which club will end up atop baseball's toughest division come the end of the regular season?

 

Who will win the AL East?

  • Baltimore Orioles 45% (4,645)
  • New York Yankees 34% (3,547)
  • Tampa Bay Rays 21% (2,176)

Total votes: 10,368

Poll: Which NL GM Made The Best Offseason Moves?

Last week MLBTR asked readers to consider the performances of American League general managers to determine which executive made the best offseason moves based upon the 2012 season thus far and long-term outlook. With over 19,500 votes, Billy Beane of the Athletics received 33.57% of the total in recognition of the moves he made this offseason which have led to his team's success this year. 

Today's poll heads to the Senior Circuit where the question becomes which National League general manager has made the best offseason moves. MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker provides a look back at all of the trades and moves that took place during the offseason to help make an informed choice.

Which NL GM Made The Best Offseason Moves?

  • Mike Rizzo (Nationals) 30% (4,696)
  • Ned Colletti (Dodgers) 14% (2,244)
  • Walt Jocketty (Reds) 11% (1,715)
  • Brian Sabean (Giants) 10% (1,532)
  • John Mozeliak (Cardinals) 7% (1,077)
  • Neal Huntington (Pirates) 6% (1,013)
  • Frank Wren (Braves) 5% (784)
  • Jed Hoyer (Cubs) 5% (716)
  • Josh Byrnes (Padres) 3% (444)
  • Jeff Luhnow (Astros) 3% (429)
  • Doug Melvin (Brewers) 2% (285)
  • Sandy Alderson (Mets) 2% (274)
  • Ruben Amaro Jr. (Phillies) 2% (259)
  • Michael Hill (Marlins) 1% (174)
  • Kevin Towers (Diamondbacks) 1% (135)
  • Dan O'Dowd (Rockies) 0% (76)

Total votes: 15,853

Poll: Which AL GM Made The Best Offseason Moves?

Baseball’s 30 general managers complete hundreds of transactions every offseason as they look for ways of improving their respective teams. Some of those moves, such as the signing of Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, generate tons of buzz. Others go unnoticed until the season begins and players start exceeding or falling short of expectations.

MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker offers a look back at last offseason’s moves (you can filter by team for more focused summaries). Now that the stretch run of the 2012 season is about to begin, let’s take stock of last winter’s moves. Taking into account both 2012 results and the long-term outlook, which American League general manager had the best 2011-12 offseason?

Which AL GM made the best offseason moves?

  • Billy Beane (Athletics) 34% (6,596)
  • Dan Duquette (Orioles) 12% (2,355)
  • Ben Cherington (Red Sox) 10% (1,931)
  • Jerry Dipoto (Angels) 9% (1,847)
  • Kenny Williams (White Sox) 8% (1,512)
  • Brian Cashman (Yankees) 7% (1,328)
  • Jon Daniels (Rangers) 6% (1,163)
  • Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) 5% (899)
  • Alex Anthopoulos (Blue Jays) 3% (550)
  • Jack Zduriencik (Mariners) 3% (550)
  • Andrew Friedman (Rays) 2% (338)
  • Terry Ryan (Twins) 2% (311)
  • Dayton Moore (Royals) 1% (166)
  • Chris Antonetti (Indians) 0% (98)

Total votes: 19,644

Poll: How Will The Giants Finish?

It has been over a week since Melky Cabrera was handed a 50-game suspension for a failed PED test, ending his 2012 season and all but ending his hopes for a big multiyear contract this winter.  Wherever Cabrera plays in 2013, it doesn't look like it will be in San Francisco, as his chances of re-signing are "close to nil" given the blow his suspension has dealt to the Giants' playoff chances.

Then again, so far Cabrera's absence hasn't hurt the club.  The Giants are 5-2 since Cabrera's suspension and are currently riding a three-game win streak following a sweep over the Dodgers in Los Angeles.  Minus Brian Wilson in the bullpen, it's almost like 2010 all over again — Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval are carrying the lineup, while the Giants' rotation is keeping opponents off the scoreboard.  Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are Cy Young candidates, Ryan Vogelsong has pitched very well outside of some recent poor outings, Barry Zito has held his own as the fifth starter and even Tim Lincecum has begun to regain his old form, posting a 3.03 ERA over his last five starts.

Heading into tonight's action, the Giants are 69-55 and hold a 2.5-game lead over the Dodgers (and a 5.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks) in the NL West.  In a division of flawed teams, the Giants might still have enough to take the division and make some noise in the postseason.  Even minus Cabrera, do the Giants have enough to win their second World Series in three years? 

How Will The Giants' Season Unfold?

  • Win the World Series 34% (3,448)
  • Miss the playoffs 25% (2,558)
  • Lose in the NLDS 15% (1,504)
  • Lose in the NLCS 13% (1,315)
  • Lose NL Wild Card game 10% (1,036)
  • Lose the World Series 4% (360)

Total votes: 10,221

Poll: How Will Nationals Fare Without Strasburg?

With a Major League-leading 71-44 record, the Nationals have surprised the baseball world this season thanks to a balanced offensive attack and a dominant pitching staff. Led by Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann, the Nationals' young arms have the team on track to secure the NL East with only 47 games remaining.

Strasburg, 24 and less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery, will be forced to miss his last two to three starts and the entire postseason as the Nationals organization has set an unofficial innings limit for its young ace. There's no doubt the Nationals will be negatively impacted once Washington GM Mike Rizzo decides to call it a season for the former San Diego State star.

The question becomes how will the Nationals fare the remainder of the season when they shut down Strasburg, who's pitched to a 2.90 ERA with 11.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

How Will The Nationals Finish The Season Without Stephen Strasburg?

  • Lose in Division Series 49% (7,098)
  • Lose in League Championship Series 20% (2,847)
  • Lose in Wild Card Showdown 12% (1,794)
  • Miss playoffs 8% (1,119)
  • Win World Series 6% (844)
  • Lose in World Series 5% (651)

Total votes: 14,353

Poll: How Will The Athletics Finish?

The Athletics have not qualified for the postseason since 2006, the year Frank Thomas went from DH flier to MVP candidate by hitting .270/.381/.545 with 39 homers. Oakland comes into today in a virtual four-way tie for one of the two AL Wild Card spots, and they’ve won 34 of 51 games (.667) over the last two calendar months. They lead the league with 13 walk-off wins.

GM Billy Beane swung two of the best trades of the offseason by acquiring Josh Reddick (for Andrew Bailey) and Jarrod Parker (for Trevor Cahill). Reddick is hitting .257/.330/.510 with 25 homers while Parker has pitched to a 3.55 ERA in 19 starts. Tommy Milone, who came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade, has a 3.91 ERA in 22 starts. Add in a strong performance from bargain signing Bartolo Colon (3.38 ERA in 22 starts) and big performance from big money signing Yoenis Cespedes (.307/.368/.515 with 14 homers), and you have arguably the best Athletics team in the last six years.

The A’s are currently in second place in the AL West but sit just a half-game ahead of the Angels. They’re 5.5 back of the Rangers. To finish with their first winning season since 2006, they’ll need to win at least 22 of their final 50 games. That seems like the easy part considering the tough competition for a playoff berth.

How will the Athletics' season unfold?

  • Above .500 but no playoffs 56% (5,298)
  • Playoff berth 37% (3,470)
  • Below .500 7% (706)

Total votes: 9,474

Poll: How Will The Dodgers Finish?

The Dodgers’ new ownership group has made it clear that they are committed to winning once again in Los Angeles and they spared no expense prior to the trade deadline to try and make that happen.  Inside of a week, General Manager Ned Colletti was given the greenlight to acquire shortstop Hanley Ramirez, outfielder Shane Victorino, and right-hander Brandon League.  The Dodgers’ deadline potentially could have been even more wallet-busting had the Phillies agreed to part with Cliff Lee and the roughly $95MM owed to him through the rest of his contract.

Since acquiring Ramirez in late July and putting him into action on the 25th, the Dodgers are 7-7 in 14 games.  The enigmatic star is now making his homecoming tonight in Miami as the Dodgers sport a 60-52 record.  Los Angeles sits just one game behind the Giants for first place in the NL West and 3.5 games back of the Pirates for the second wild card slot.

Will their recent offensive infusion help them get over the hump and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2009?  For the Dodgers to wind up below the .500 mark, they’d have to finish 20-30 or worse.  To win 90 games, they’d have to go 30-20.  There are 50 games remaining, how do you see it playing out?

How Will The Dodgers' Season Unfold?

  • Playoff berth 63% (7,206)
  • Above .500 31% (3,505)
  • Below .500 6% (694)

Total votes: 11,405

Poll: How Will The Orioles Finish?

The Orioles were one of MLB’s model franchises for decades, but teams of the 1960s, ‘70s and ‘80s have given way to clubs that have been unable to reach the .500 mark for the last 14 years. While no organization rivals the Pirates’ streak of losing seasons, the Orioles haven’t had a winning record or made the playoffs since 1997.

Everything could change this year if the Orioles continue to play well for the next two months. They're currently 60-51, tied with the Tigers and Athletics for the lead in the American League Wild Card race, and 1.5 games ahead of the Rays and Angels. With five teams playing for two spots, competition for the Wild Card spots will no doubt be heated.

The Orioles have allowed 47 more runs than they've scored, which suggests their .541 winning percentage is unsustainable. But their 60 wins aren’t going to disappear, so they’re very much in contention. Manny Machado is joining the team, and Dylan Bundy might be next. As Dave Cameron explained this morning, there’s a definite chance Baltimore could win enough to reach the postseason. Even if it’s not necessarily likely, the playoffs are within reach.

For the Orioles to end up below .500, they’d have to finish 20-31 or worse. To win 90 games, they’d have to finish 30-21 or better. There are still 51 games to go…

How will the Orioles' season unfold?

  • Above .500 but no playoffs 62% (6,070)
  • Playoff berth 26% (2,527)
  • Below .500 12% (1,128)

Total votes: 9,725

Poll: How Will The Pirates Finish?

The Pirates are 20 wins away from assuring themselves of their first winning season since 1992, and they have a realistic chance at an even greater accomplishment. The Pirates are currently in playoff position, 2.5 games ahead of the Cardinals for the National League's second Wild Card spot. Baseball Prospectus calculates that there’s a 55.5% chance the Pirates make the playoffs this year.

But a lot can happen in two months. The Pirates made midseason upgrades a year ago, acquiring Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick, only to falter down the stretch and finish with a 72-90 record. This year's Pirates team is much better at preventing runs, yet it doesn't generate much offense. The Pirates are 11th in the NL in runs scored and their team on-base percentage is just .303.

For the Pirates to finish below .500, they’d have to finish 18-35 or worse. To win 90 games, they’d have to finish 28-25 or better. With 53 games to go, a lot of uncertainty exists…

How will the Pirates' season unfold?

  • Playoff berth 51% (8,868)
  • Above .500 but no playoffs 45% (7,898)
  • Below .500 4% (611)

Total votes: 17,377

Poll: Player Most Likely To Be Traded In August

The non-waiver trade deadline saw countless teams wheel and deal with hopes that acquiring the right piece or two would be enough to make a legitimate run during the playoffs this October. There's still an opportunity for a contender to make a move as teams have until the August 31 waiver trade deadline to make up for a just-missed transaction from last week. While some of the players passed through waivers over the course of August are capable of contributing to a winning team, many come with a bloated contract and statistics unworthy of those dollars. 

Which player do you see as the most likely to change uniforms via trade this month?

Which Player Is Most Likely To Be Traded In August?

  • Alfonso Soriano 40% (7,996)
  • Heath Bell 12% (2,314)
  • Scott Hairston 11% (2,279)
  • Justin Morneau 10% (2,083)
  • Josh Beckett 9% (1,738)
  • Other 7% (1,456)
  • Vernon Wells 6% (1,152)
  • Carl Crawford 4% (885)

Total votes: 19,903

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