Poll: The Red Sox & Mike Napoli
It has been 24 days since the Red Sox and Mike Napoli agreed to a three-year contract worth $39MM. The two sides have been unable to finalize the deal due to a hip issue that popped up during the physical, and the team is reportedly trying to put some protective language into the pact. They’ve used similar clauses in contracts for J.D. Drew and John Lackey.
Earlier today we learned the Red Sox have been talking to Adam LaRoche, a free agent first baseman who would be a viable alternative to Napoli. A few hours later we heard that Napoli’s representatives have had talks with at least one other team. Both reports could just be one side trying to gain leverage over the other, or they could be an indication the agreement is falling apart and they’ve both begun to look for alternatives.
With the calendar just about ready to flip over to 2013, unsigned free agents will soon begin to scramble to find jobs for next season. Teams will also start to scramble for solutions to their remaining roster holes since Spring Training will be just six weeks away. Neither Napoli nor the Red Sox want this thing to drag out any longer, so a resolution should come relatively soon one way or the other.
Will the Red Sox & Napoli complete their agreement?
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No, he'll end up elsewhere 57% (14,643)
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Yes 43% (10,842)
Total votes: 25,485
Poll: Which Top 50 Free Agent Will Sign Next?
As we approach the New Year, seven of Tim Dierkes' Top 50 free agents remain unsigned. Michael Bourn (#3), Kyle Lohse (#10), Adam LaRoche (#15), Rafael Soriano (#17), Shaun Marcum (#19), Joe Saunders (#25), and Jose Valverde (#44) are still on the market and most seem to be drawing a great deal of interest. It's possible that Mike Napoli (#14) re-enters the fray if his deal with the Red Sox falls through, though one has to imagine that Boston would have bailed entirely at this point if they were overly concerned about his health.
Bourn, Lohse, Soriano, and Valverde are all represented by Scott Boras, who is comfortable with waiting for the right deal. We also know that he has a knack for digging up unexpected suitors, so maybe we shouldn't shy away from picking Lohse in this poll despite his cloudy market. Of the seven top 50 free agents left, who is going to put pen to paper first?
Which Top 50 FA Will Sign Next?
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Adam LaRoche 41% (9,176)
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Michael Bourn 19% (4,357)
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Joe Saunders 14% (3,166)
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Kyle Lohse 14% (3,047)
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Shaun Marcum 7% (1,687)
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Rafael Soriano 4% (793)
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Jose Valverde 1% (282)
Total votes: 22,508
Poll: The Rays-Royals Trade
The Rays and Royals made a major trade last night, and in the 12 hours or so since the teams announced the deal, many executives, writers and analysts have responded with their reactions. Now it’s your turn to weigh in on the deal.
Should the Royals get credit for strengthening their pitching staff with James Shields and Wade Davis? Or did they overpay for pitching depth and make a deal they’ll ultimately regret? And does the acquisition of Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard justify the Rays’ decision to deal Shields and Davis? Or did the Rays make a mistake in choosing prospects over established players? It's time to hear what you think of the trade…
Which team won the Rays-Royals trade?
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Rays 47% (17,415)
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Both teams win the deal 33% (12,123)
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Royals 18% (6,613)
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Both teams lose the deal 2% (896)
Total votes: 37,047
Poll: Next Top Ten Free Agent To Sign
So far this offseason, only one of Tim Dierkes’ Top Ten Free Agents has signed a new contract: Hiroki Kuroda (#9) re-upped with the Yankees. That’s not at all uncommon at this point of the winter, as most top free agents tend to wait until the Winter Meetings in early-December before deciding on their next baseball home.
The market for outfielders Josh Hamilton (#2), Michael Bourn (#3), B.J. Upton (#5), and Nick Swisher (#6) have been pretty robust so far, ditto Zack Greinke (#1). Anibal Sanchez (#4) has generated some buzz as well, but things have been slow for Edwin Jackson (#7), Dan Haren (#8), and Kyle Lohse (#10). That will change soon enough. One of these guys will soon follow in Kuroda’s footsteps and ink a new deal, but who will it be first?
Which top ten free agent will be next to sign?
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B.J. Upton 35% (8,432)
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Nick Swisher 12% (2,981)
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Zack Greinke 11% (2,747)
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Michael Bourn 9% (2,132)
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Anibal Sanchez 8% (2,024)
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Dan Haren 8% (1,825)
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Kyle Lohse 6% (1,438)
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Josh Hamilton 6% (1,379)
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Edwin Jackson 5% (1,090)
Total votes: 24,048
Poll: Will The Mets Extend Wright & Dickey?
The easiest decision of the Mets' offseason came on October 30 when the team picked up their options on David Wright (worth $16MM) and R.A. Dickey ($5MM) for the 2013 season. The much trickier move has been in extending both players beyond next season, as the Mets have yet to lock up their longtime third baseman and the 2012 NL Cy Young winner.
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman recently observed that while Wright and the Mets weren't making much progress, "there's always been a feeling something will get done," as the Mets seem committed to keeping Wright as the face of their franchise for the rest of his career. Last month we heard the team was willing to offer Wright a deal worth around $100MM, so it would seem that length, not money, is the issue. Wright turns 30 in December and you would think the team is looking for a six- or seven-year commitment, whereas Wright and his representatives at ACES would want at least an eight-year deal akin to the kind that Wright could find on the open market.
As for Dickey, his situation is much more complicated, befitting his unique status as a late-blooming Cy Young winner. Dickey has broken out as a star during his three years in New York, though at age 38, the Mets have concerns about how long Dickey will be able to continue his knuckleballing magic. The Mets have at least floated Dickey's name in trade talks to see what he could bring back in a deal, as Dickey's $5MM salary makes him a very attractive target for teams looking for immediate pitching help.
With both players under contract for 2013, the Mets have lots of time to negotiate extensions, so it's too early to say that Wright or Dickey are in imminent danger of being traded. Dealing Dickey is understandable from a short-term perspective, though moving Wright would be a much bigger move and essentially a signal that the Mets don't plan to contend until at least 2015. Do you think Wright and/or Dickey will still be at Citi Field come 2014, or is their time with the Mets coming to a close?
What Will The Mets Do With Wright And Dickey?
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Extend Wright, trade Dickey 38% (4,973)
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Sign both to extensions 27% (3,596)
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Trade both 15% (1,946)
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Wait until the July trade deadline 8% (1,114)
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Extend Dickey, trade Wright 8% (1,092)
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Let both leave as free agents, get compensation picks 3% (396)
Total votes: 13,117
Poll: Will Josh Hamilton Return To The Rangers?
Immediately after the Rangers' 5-1 loss to the Orioles in the AL Wild Card game, the focus shifted to Josh Hamilton and his impending free agency. The slugger reiterated his desire to stay in Texas and said that he would allow the club to match any offer that is put in front of him. He also took a crack at quantifying his chances of returning and pegged them at 50/50. It's possible that the outfielder knows just as much as we do about where he may wind up.
Typically, someone with a .285/.354/.577 batting line and 43 home runs in their walk year would be a lock for a hefty, long-term deal, but Hamilton's injury history and off-the-field concerns make him a risky signing. He may also have less big market suitors than a free agent of his caliber would expect. The free-spending Dodgers are already set in the outfield with Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford. The Red Sox have plenty of room to work with thanks to their blockbuster deal with the Dodgers, but all signs point to them exercising caution in this offseason in order to avoid more ill-advised long-term deals. The Cubs expect to spend, but reportedly, spending $150MM+ on one player isn't what they have in mind.
The Rangers know that there's a limit to how much they can budget for the 31-year-old, but they may not have to stretch too far to sign him given his question marks and his fairly limited pool of suitors. When the dust settles, do you see Hamilton in Arlington or elsewhere in 2013?
Will The Rangers Re-Sign Hamilton?
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No 74% (11,415)
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Yes 26% (4,105)
Total votes: 15,520
Poll: Should Edwin Jackson Get A Qualifying Offer?
It wasn’t long ago that Edwin Jackson was one of the top free agent starting pitchers available. Before long he’ll re-appear on the free agent market, and when he does the Nationals will have to decide whether it’s worth extending him a qualifying offer.
Doing so would allow Washington to obtain draft pick compensation for the right-hander should he sign elsewhere. But it’d also create the possibility of Jackson accepting a one-year contract in the $13MM range.
In some instances the risk (the possibility of a $13MM commitment) isn’t worth the reward (potential draft pick compensation). But in Jackson’s case, a one-year $13MM contract would seem to be a team-friendly deal.
Jackson has a 3.89 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 47.3 % ground ball rate in 173 2/3 innings so far in 2012. Like most Nationals starters, he throws hard (average fastball velocity of 93.5 mph) and generates swings and misses (12.2% swinging strike rate). And though he’s in the midst of his tenth MLB season, he’s still in his prime at 29 years old. Even if the Nationals preferred other candidates for their rotation, Jackson could generate trade interest at that salary.
Last offseason, under baseball’s previous collective bargaining agreement, the Cardinals offered Jackson arbitration, setting themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2012. If the Nationals make Jackson a qualifying offer, no other team will be able to sign him unless they surrender a 2013 draft pick. But there’s not an abundance of quality free agent starting pitching and many of the top pitchers (Zack Greinke excluded) will be linked to draft picks. Jackson, who’s now represented by the Legacy Agency, figures to draw interest either way. What should the Nationals do?
Should the Nationals make Edwin Jackson a qualifying offer after the season?
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Yes 72% (3,607)
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No 28% (1,378)
Total votes: 4,985
Poll: Should Shaun Marcum Get A Qualifying Offer?
Shaun Marcum’s an effective pitcher when healthy, but questions about his durability persist as he approaches free agency. One year after reaching the 200-inning plateau for the first time, Marcum has been sidelined for much of the season. The right-hander experienced shoulder stiffness at the beginning of the year, then missed two-plus months with elbow tightness in the middle of the season.
Marcum has pitched well overall, posting a 3.91 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 35.8% ground ball rate in 106 innings. His average fastball checks in at 86.6mph, which ranks 130th among the 136 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings this year. But Marcum never needed an overpowering fastball to succeed in the past, when he held his own against AL East offenses. He uses his fastball far less frequently than most pitchers, changing speeds to generate more than his share of swing and misses. This year he has a career-best 11.3% swinging strike rate.
However, he hasn't pitched particularly well since returning from the disabled list, and has not completed six innings in any of those five post-DL starts. The events of the last few months appear to have reduced Marcum’s chances of obtaining a qualifying offer from the Brewers after the season.
Not only has Marcum spent considerable time of the disabled list, starters such as Michael Fiers, Marco Estrada, Mark Rogers and Wily Peralta have emerged, lessening the impact of Marcum's health issues, Chris Narveson's injury, Zack Greinke's departure and Randy Wolf's ineffectiveness. While the Brewers figure to pursue pitching this offseason, they aren't desperate. They may decide against extending Marcum a qualifying offer in the $13MM range, even though it’d the only way for them to obtain draft pick compensation for the 30-year-old.
If the Brewers don’t consider Marcum a $13MM pitcher and suspect that the industry shares their view, it’d likely make sense to let the Turner Gary Sports client leave for no compensation. However, if they believe they could find trade partners for Marcum at that salary, extending a qualifying offer becomes less risky. In that scenario, draft pick compensation would be within reach. With two weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s almost time for the Brewers to decide…
Should the Brewers make Shaun Marcum a qualifying offer after the season?
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No 68% (3,696)
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Yes 32% (1,769)
Total votes: 5,465
Poll: Should Kyle Lohse Get A Qualifying Offer?
Kyle Lohse’s strong season is part of the reason the Cardinals are on track to return to the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons. Lohse, who starts against the Astros tonight, has a 2.81 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate in 192 innings over the course of 30 starts this year. The 33-year-old right-hander has an eye-catching 14-3 record with an average fastball velocity of 89.4 mph and a swinging strike rate of 7.1%.
Despite his production, he’s not expected to return to St. Louis when he hits free agency this offseason, as the Cardinals already have an assortment of options for their 2013 rotation. Instead, the Scott Boras client figures to seek another multiyear deal in free agency when his four-year, $41MM contract expires after the season.
The Cardinals could make him a qualifying offer, even if they don’t expect him to return in 2013. Extending Lohse a qualifying offer would be the only way for GM John Mozeliak to obtain a compensatory draft pick next year. Without an offer, Lohse would leave and the Cardinals would get nothing.
If St. Louis does make Lohse an offer, he’d be tied to draft pick compensation and one of two things would happen: he’d accept and get locked in to a one-year deal at a salary of $13MM-plus, or he’d decline in search of a multiyear deal, setting St. Louis up for draft pick compensation in 2013.
The Cardinals will have other needs to address this offseason, such as bullpen help and a potential extension for Adam Wainwright, so spending $13MM on another starter might be considered a luxury. But they could move Lohse, who would generate trade interest on a one-year deal in the $13MM range.
If the Cardinals are willing to take this risk, they can set themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2013. If not, they can keep it simple and let Lohse depart without making him a qualifying offer. What should they do?
Should the Cardinals make Kyle Lohse a qualifying offer after the season?
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Yes 74% (4,377)
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No 26% (1,522)
Total votes: 5,899
Poll: How Will The AL Wild Card Race Unfold?
With 16 games remaining on the regular season schedule, the race for the two American League Wild Card spots continues to captivate the attention of baseball fans across the country. The Athletics enter the home stretch as the favorites to secure the first Wild Card after taking two out of three from the Orioles at home. Even with this weekend's setback against Oakland, Baltimore remains in the mix to overtake the A's as it currently occupies the second Wild Card with the Angels lurking two and a half games behind.
Beyond the two top contenders, three teams (excluding current division leaders in New York, Chicago and Texas) have a healthy chance of sneaking into the playoffs by staking a claim to one of the Wild Card berths with a strong finish. The Rays, four games behind the Orioles for the second spot, are among the teams hoping to extend their season well into October and will rely on their talented young pitching staff to get there. Just behind Tampa Bay at four and a half games behind Baltimore, the Tigers may be more likely to catch the White Sox for the division title as only two games separate the teams.
Which Two Teams Will Claim The AL Wild Card Spots?
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1. Athletics, 2. Orioles 49% (5,611)
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1. Orioles, 2. Athletics 12% (1,355)
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1. Athletics, 2. Angels 12% (1,328)
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Other 8% (911)
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1. Athletics, 2. Rays 7% (787)
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1. Orioles, 2. Angels 5% (544)
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1. Orioles, 2. Rays 3% (399)
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1. Athletics, 2. Tigers 3% (315)
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1. Orioles, 2. Tigers 2% (254)
Total votes: 11,504