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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Justin Duchscherer

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The Athletics' last offseason was a risky one, with the team committing over $17MM to Ben Sheets, Coco Crisp, and Justin Duchscherer despite the trio barely playing in 2009.  Duchscherer was the least risky of the bunch in that the A's only guaranteed him $1.75MM.  The move did not pay off, as Duchscherer provided only 28 innings before undergoing season-ending hip surgery in June. 

Duchscherer told MLB.com's Jane Lee he's open to returning to the A's, but let's take a look at his situation as he heads to free agency again.

The Pros

  • Duchscherer told Lee, "When I'm healthy, I've always proven that I can pitch."  The 32-year-old righty made only 27 starts from 2008-10, but he posted a 2.60 ERA in those 169.6 innings.
  • The price will be right – after two lost seasons in a row, Duchscherer should be looking at a smaller guarantee or even a minor league deal this offseason.
  • Both of Duchscherer's hips and his pitching elbow have already been fixed, so as he says, "I can't imagine what else could go wrong."

The Cons

The Verdict

Duchscherer will still find a big league deal, but his base salary will be closer to $1MM this time.  A few weeks ago, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith listed 14 teams that might be interested in this type of starter during the offseason.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hisanori Takahashi

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When the Mets signed lefty Hisanori Takahashi in February, his recent stats in Japan described him as a flyball/command pitcher who could fill a swingman role.  The screwballer's Mets deal came with a $1MM guarantee and $2MM in performance bonuses.  The Pirates, Orioles, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, and Padres also expressed interest in Takahashi.

According to David Waldstein of the New York Times, Takahashi's contract includes a provision allowing him to declare free agency on October 31st, creating "a four-week window in which the Mets have exclusive negotiation rights."  Typically the free agent filing period begins the day after the World Series with an exclusive window for teams for fifteen days.  That'd make the filing date between November 1st and November 5th.  The wrinkle: ESPN's Jayson Stark recently wrote that the annual filing, arbitration, and tender dates will be moved up this year.  Allowing players to file before or during the World Series seems unlikely, however, and Takahashi's unique situation is confusing as well.  We'll seek clarification on both fronts.

GM Omar Minaya told Waldstein he hopes to work out a new contract with Takahashi, although keep in mind that Minaya might not last that long at the team's helm.  Takahashi told ESPN's Adam Rubin he likes New York and plans to finish his career in MLB, but not much is known beyond that.  Let's take a look at Takahashi's free agent case.

The Pros

  • Takahashi is versatile, having ably filled roles in the Mets' rotation and bullpen.  At this point, he's actually their closer.  In 64.6 innings as a starter Takahashi posted a 5.01 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 1.53 HR/9.  Out of the pen he managed a 2.21 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and a 0.34 HR/9.
  • He dominated lefties in 2010, posting a 11.05 K/9 while allowing no home runs in 29.3 frames.  He was respectable against righties too.
  • Takahashi is on the border of Type B and nothing at last check, though given the timeframe the Mets probably can't offer arbitration anyway.  He won't cost a draft pick.

The Cons

  • Takahashi's multiple roles in 2010 could work against him – even if he'd like another crack at starting, teams might be more enticed by his relief success.
  • At 36 years old in April, Takahashi is no spring chicken.  He hasn't pitched 150 innings in a season since 2007.  
  • Among those with 100 innings this year, Takahashi's 45.6% flyball rate is the 13th-highest.  His 8.4% rate of home runs per flyball may not last, resulting in more shots leaving the yard in 2011.

The Verdict

Quality lefties are tough to find no matter what the role.  Takahashi's agent Peter Greenberg figures to start out seeking a two-year deal despite his client's age.  The annual guarantee could be around $2.5MM, plus incentives for starts and games finished.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kerry Wood

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Kerry Wood signed a $20.5MM deal the last time he hit free agency, and though he isn't likely to sign for nearly as much this offseason, his stint in the Bronx has strengthened his free agent case. Wood arrived in New York after an injury-filled first half that saw him post a 6.30 ERA in 20 innings, but he has pitched better since joining the Yankees. It probably won't be enough for GM Brian Cashman to pick up the $11MM option the Yankees have for Wood in 2011, so the right-hander will likely be a free agent.

In 23 innings with his new team, Wood has allowed 13 walks and 13 hits with 26 strikeouts for a sparkling 0.39 ERA. His control is still suspect, but the strikeouts are there and Wood has been hard to hit. It was more than 12 years ago that Wood pitched his one-hit, 20 strikeout shutout, but the former first rounder is still just 33. 

Wood projects to be a Type B free agent, which means he won't cost teams a draft pick, even if the Yankees offer arbitration. The Red Sox were interested in Wood at the trade deadline and though they may prioritize left-handed relievers this winter, they could have interest once again. The D'Backs, Angels and Blue Jays are among the many teams that could be looking for veteran right-handed relievers this offseason.

Wood's strong second half and history of dominant performances should interest multiple teams, but his history of elbow, shoulder and triceps injuries will likely make those clubs reluctant to commit for more than a season. A one-year deal worth $5-6MM seems like a reasonable target for Wood this winter.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jorge Cantu

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When the Marlins traded Jorge Cantu to the Rangers before this year's July 31st deadline, it was a prime opportunity for Cantu to turn his season around. Playing for a postseason contender in a hitter-friendly park, the 28-year-old was in a good position to improve his stock with a productive stretch run. It's still possible that Cantu will come up with some timely hits in the playoffs for the Rangers, but so far, his time in Texas has been a major disappointment. In 75 plate appearances, Cantu has hit .206/.270/.265 and has yet to drive in a run.

Prior to the season, Cantu was coming off a two-year stretch in Florida in which he hit .283/.336/.462, averaged over 20 homers per season, and logged playing time at both corner infield positions. His performance earned him a $6MM contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility, but his discouraging 2010 campaign doesn't bode well for his impending free agency.

When teams consider Cantu this winter, one thing working in his favor is his history. This isn't the first time the infielder has had a letdown year following a successful one – in 2006, on the heels of a .286/.311/.497, 28-homer season for the Rays, Cantu hit just .249/.295/.404. His drop-off in OPS that season (.808 to .699) looks awfully similar to his decline from 2009 to 2010 (.788 to .691). Cantu rebounded nicely after signing with the Marlins, and he's still young enough that he could do so again.

Even if a club takes a chance on Cantu's ability to bounce back though, it's hard to imagine him landing more than a short-term deal. The first base market is flush with alternatives, and Cantu has never been a strong defensive third baseman, according to UZR. Cantu's best option may be signing an affordable one-year deal in the hopes that he can rebuild his value and ink a long-term contract next winter, entering his age-30 season.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam LaRoche

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Earlier in the summer, Adam LaRoche and the Diamondbacks had preliminary discussions about an extension, but that was before the D’Backs hired current GM Kevin Towers. It’s still possible that the D’Backs work out an extension with LaRoche under Towers, but it seems more likely that LaRoche will hit free agency (assuming both sides don’t exercise his $7.5MM mutual option for 2011). Here’s the outlook for LaRoche this offseason:

The Pros

  • He’s a consistently productive hitter, and has now combined 20 or more homers with an OPS of at least .775 in all seven of the seasons he’s played since becoming a starter.
  • LaRoche has generally stayed healthy, averaging 145 games per season in that seven-year stretch.
  • As a likely Type B free agent, he won’t cost a draft pick.
  • He doesn’t turn 31 until November, so his skills probably aren’t about to fade.

The Cons

  • Though he has traditionally been a strong second half player, LaRoche is slumping badly and has just three extra base hits this month.
  • He’ll join a group of free agent first basemen that includes Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee and Lyle Overbay. Teams looking for first basemen will have lots of selection this winter.
  • LaRoche drew limited interest from other clubs when he cleared waivers this summer.

The Verdict

LaRoche signed for $6MM last year after hitting .277/.355/.488 with 25 homers. He now has a .260/.321/.460 line with 23 homers and a career high 93 RBI. The numbers are similar this year and the market remains flush with first basemen, so a similar one-year $6MM deal seems likely for LaRoche.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rafael Soriano

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According to David Ortiz, Rafael Soriano deserves to be signed to a five-year contract this winter. While Soriano is enjoying a fantastic season for the Tampa Bay Rays, he probably shouldn't hold out hope for a B.J. Ryan-esque deal. That doesn't mean, however, that Soriano won't be one of the most interesting free agents on the market this winter.

A year ago, Soriano unexpectedly accepted an arbitration offer from the Braves, since he and his agent were worried the right-hander's Type A designation would make teams reluctant to give up two draft picks to sign him. The Braves, who added Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to their bullpen, had no room in their budget for Soriano and dealt him to the Rays. This year, Soriano is in a similar situation; not only is he projected to be a Type A again, but his 91.232 Elias score currently ranks him ahead of every major free agent, including Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth.

Of course, barring a late-season collapse, Soriano will be coming off a campaign even more impressive than his 2009. His strikeout rate has dipped a little, but his ERA (1.82) and WHIP (0.79) have improved significantly, and those 43 saves won't hurt his stock either. The 30-year-old seems more likely to turn down arbitration and pursue a multi-year deal this time around, which puts Tampa Bay in a win-win situation. If Soriano accepts arbitration, he would be a valuable trade chip for the cost-cutting Rays. If the righty turns down arbitration, the Rays could be looking at not only a sandwich pick, but a first round selection as well, given his Elias ranking. If a club with an unprotected first round pick signed both Soriano and Victor Martinez, for instance, that team would be sending their first rounder to the Rays, rather than the Red Sox.

Last winter, Fernando Rodney and Jose Valverde signed two-year guarantees worth $11.5MM and $14MM respectively. Rodney earned his contract in part due to a gaudy save total (37), while Valverde earned his due to impressive ratios (2.33 ERA, 9.3 K/9). Not only has Soriano bested Rodney's save count and many of Valverde's peripherals this year, but he'll also be younger than either right-hander was when they signed their deals.

So what sort of contract could Soriano command this winter? Even if his multiple elbow surgeries make some suitors wary, Soriano's consecutive healthy, effective seasons should earn him a lucrative multi-year pact. The 30-year-old should at least receive a two-year offer worth $18MM or so, and he could end up doing even better than that. Especially if Ortiz lands a general manager job.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Melvin Mora

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There's a limit to how much 38-year-old utility men can earn, and Melvin Mora is doing everything within his power to push that limit as he heads for another round of free agency. He's hitting well and playing all over the place as the Rockies make their annual charge towards the postseason. Here's the outlook for Mora this winter:

The Pros

  • Mora is batting .286/.363/.404 this year, a significant improvement from the 2009 line he posted in Baltimore (.260/.321/.358).
  • The Rockies called on Mora to be their everyday third baseman when Ian Stewart hit the DL on August 26th and Mora has responded by posting an .873 OPS since then, proving that he can still play every day if necessary.
  • He has played first, second, third and left field this year.
  • He won't cost a draft pick, since he doesn't project to be a ranked free agent.

The Cons

  • Mora turns 39 before the season starts, so his chances of winning another Silver Slugger or clubbing 27 homers in a season again are slim. He's a role player at this point in his career.
  • His batting average on balls in play is the highest it has been in five years, despite a career-low line drive rate. Those numbers suggest Mora has benefitted from some good luck on balls in play.

The Verdict

Mora is not getting a multi-year deal this winter, barring a major surprise, but he has likely earned himself a raise from his current $1.275MM salary. It seems like Mora's in line for another one-year deal this winter, but he could earn $2-3MM this time around.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Xavier Nady

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It's always tough for a player when he hits free agency coming off an injury, but it's even tougher when it's a major injury. That's exactly what happened to Xavier Nady last winter, when he was recovering from his second Tommy John surgery after coming to the plate just 29 times for the Yankees in 2009. 

The Cubs rolled the dice and signed Nady to a one-year deal worth $3.3MM in late January, though incentives based on games started and plate appearances have put another $350K in his pocket this season. Let's break down his stock heading into free agency…

The Pros

  • After a slow start, Nady has rounded into form down the stretch, hitting .317/.351/.423 in his last 131 plate appearances. Not coincidentally, that hot streak almost directly coincides with the trade of Derrek Lee, which is when Nady took the first base job outright.
  • He's now more than a full year away from his surgery and hasn't shown any ill effects. 
  • Nady is versatile, capable of playing first and both outfield corners regularly, as well as third in an emergency.
  • He is not projected to be a Type-A (or even a Type-B) free agent, meaning a team would not have to surrender a draft pick to sign him if the Cubs offered him arbitration after the season. 

The Cons

  • Always known for his ability to mash lefthanded pitching (.298/.369/.455 vs. LHP in his career), Nady has hit just .250/.295/.375 against southpaws this year.
  • He's also striking out more than ever, in exactly 27% of his at-bats, and his power numbers are down as well; Nady's .380 slugging percentage is his lowest since 2003.
  • He hit just .225/.298/.344 in 171 plate appearances before taking over at first base full-time, perhaps suggesting that he needs regular playing time to remain productive. 
  • Nady will turn 32-years-old this November, so he's teetering on the edge of his prime and decline phases.

The Verdict

Despite what shaped up to be the worst season of Nady's career, he still has value as a platoon player that won't fall on his face if pressed into full-time duty. It would appear that staying in the NL makes the most sense, but perhaps the more hitter friendly parks of the AL would benefit Nady the most. There's no reason to think he'll be able to find a multi-year deal or get a considerable raise on the open market, so I would expect him to sign for a contract very similar to what he agreed to last winter. 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hideki Matsui

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After seven seasons in pinstripes, Hideki Matsui imitated his former teammate Bobby Abreu and headed west on a one-year deal with the Angels. At one year and $6MM, the Angels figured to be getting a solid designated hitter to complement Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Kendry Morales as the big bats in the middle of the order.

Matsui trudged through a slow first half though, slugging under .400 and posting just a .732 OPS. Since the All-Star break, however, Godzilla has roared back to life. Hitting .306/.405/.567, Matsui has raised his stock for this offseason considerably. He's matched his first-half home run total of 10 in just 185 plate appearances (as opposed to 335 in the first half) while lowering his K% and increasing his BB%.

Still, Matsui's value in the coming offseason will suffer as a result of his inability to play defense. Plagued by knee injuries, he's been reduced to nearly full-time DHing. He's seen just 122 innings in left field this season, and while that's too small of a sample size to judge from, Matsui has never posted a positive UZR over the course of his eight major league seasons.

Matsui's numbers against left-handed pitching have taken a hit this season as well. While he holds a career OPS of .809 versus southpaws, his .679 mark this season isn't going to appeal to many teams.

There aren't many DHs already under contract for 2011, though the Red Sox and Twins hold options for David Ortiz and Jason Kubel. Vladimir Guerrero has a mutual option in Texas and Travis Hafner is set in Cleveland, but there could be a number of open destinations for Matsui. He'll join the likes of Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, and his bat could be one of the more attractive DH options on the market thanks to his second-half surge.

At age 36 and unable to be counted on for defense, it's hard to see Matsui commanding multiple years on the free agent market. If a team believes his struggles against left-handed pitching are a fluke, his scorching second half could be enough to earn him a contract similar to the one he signed this past offseason.

Free Agent Stock Watch: John Buck

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Jose Bautista's incredible season has been the big story for the Blue Jays this year, and for good reason. After blasting his 49th long ball last night, Bautista is just two away from matching Davey Johnson's 1973 record for biggest home run jump in a single season. However, Bautista isn't the only Blue Jay veteran who's having an unexpected career year. Quietly, John Buck has hit .274/.303/.485 in 369 plate appearances and matched his career high in homers (18), while handling a young Toronto starting rotation. Let's break down his stock heading into free agency:

The Pros

  • Buck's offensive performance appears mostly sustainable. He slugged .484 in limited playing time in 2009, and has always had the ability to hit the ball out of the park. Plus, his OBP is right in line with his career rate.
  • His numbers haven't been inflated by playing in a homer-friendly park; he's actually hit better on the road (.841 OPS, 11 HR).
  • The free agent class of catchers doesn't look as impressive as it might have a few months ago. Veterans like Bengie Molina and A.J. Pierzynski have underperformed, and teams may not be entirely confident in Victor Martinez's ability behind the plate. Buck appears to be one of the more appealing options available.
  • At 30 years old, Buck should be able to withstand the wear-and-tear of catching for at least a few more seasons.
  • He'll likely remain a Type B free agent, meaning he won't cost a draft pick to sign.

The Cons

  • Buck's .274 batting average isn't a mark he's likely to repeat. He's a career .241 hitter and he has an unusually high BABIP this year.
  • His BB/K ratio is a career-worst 12/103.
  • The 30-year-old figures to be looking for a contract larger in both years and money than the one-year, $2MM deal he signed with the Jays. He was only a .235/.298/.407 career hitter prior to this season, so suitors may be reluctant to invest millions in him.

The Verdict

Even if the Blue Jays decide to roll the dice with J.P. Arencibia as their primary backstop next season, they should offer Buck arbitration. In the unlikely scenario that he accepts, they'll have him back at an affordable price. If he declines, Buck will probably be looking to land a multi-year deal elsewhere. Last winter, the 35-year-old Bengie Molina was coming off a season similar to Buck's and signed a one-year contract worth $4.5MM. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buck ink a two- or three-year deal for about the same yearly salary that Molina received.

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