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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Magglio Ordonez

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Magglio Ordonez was in line for a $15MM salary next year until a July ankle fracture ended his 2010 season.  The Scott Boras client is now a free agent; let's examine his stock.

The Good

  • Ordonez hasn't posted an OBP below .376 since '06.  His power ticked back up to a .474 SLG after a down '09.
  • He can handle an outfield corner, as he was on pace for over 1,000 innings in right field before the injury.  Ordonez has never played left field in the Majors, but he'd be wise to consider it.
  • If Boras thinks Ordonez has a big 2011 in him, he might consider one-year offers.
  • Though Ordonez is a Type A free agent, he won't be offered arbitration and therefore won't cost a draft pick.

The Bad

  • Ordonez turns 37 in January and has to be considered a health and/or performance decline risk.  In regard to his ankle, Boras told MLB.com's Jason Beck, "I think a lot is being made of a standard fracture."  If Boras is correct, Ordonez can point to the fact that he's only had one other DL stint since '06, 18 days for an oblique strain in '08.
  • Ordonez's outfield defense might give National League teams pause.
  • Boras told Beck "there's going to be very strong demand" for right-handed hitters like Ordonez.  That's typical Boras-speak, but it's still possible he's aiming for a $10MM salary or multiple years.

The Verdict

Ordonez could return to the Tigers as a complementary piece.  He may also draw interest from the Rays, Blue Jays, Athletics, Mariners, or Rangers for a DH-centric role.  If Ordonez is viewed as a corner outfielder, the Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Giants, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres could join the mix.  Something like two years and $16MM seems possible, unless Boras is more inclined to try to build up value on a one-year deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Scott Podsednik

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Last week, Scott Podsednik officially declined his half of his mutual option with the Dodgers and elected to become a free agent. Pods has seen time with three different clubs over the past two seasons, and may end up with a fourth within the next few months. While a few years ago, Podsednik may have been a Major League afterthought, he's rebuilt some stock and now joins a fairly weak outfield market. Let's take a look at his position:

The Good

  • Podsednik can still run. He may no longer be a 70 stolen base threat, but he's still good for 30-plus swipes per season and will always give pitchers something to think about when he's on base.
  • His .300/.347/.397 slash line over the past two seasons is passable for a leadoff hitter who can steal plenty of bases.
  • Podsednik makes good contact; he struck out just 15.4% of his plate appearances this year, while the Major League average sat at 20.7%.
  • He's a Type B free agent, so he won't cost a draft pick to sign, and likely won't require an overly large salary either.
  • He can handle lefties decently, so he doesn't need to be part of a platoon. It's worth noting that what little power he has is against right-handers though; he had just four extra base hits against southpaws in 2010.

The Bad

  • It's been awhile since Pods was a defensive asset. While he has good speed still, he's failed to post a positive UZR in left field since 2007, and his arm is considerably below average.
  • While he can steal you bases, it's not at an elite rate anymore. Podsednik got caught in nearly 30% of his attempts in 2010, compared to just 16% of the time at his peak in 2004, when he stole 70 with Milwaukee.
  • He can hit the occasional home run, but Podsednik isn't a reliable source of power. He's slugged above .400 just twice in his career.
  • He may not be the sexiest option, but after Carl Crawford, Podsednik represents one of the best left field options on the market (Johnny Damon and Pat Burrell are others, depending on how many clubs still view them as viable outfielders). That should give him bargaining power and increase the number of suitors.

The Verdict

Podsednik is no longer the terror on the bases he was in his younger days. He'll be 35 next season, but can still steal 30+ bases and get on base well enough to be a club's leadoff hitter. He won't bring power, but he doesn't strike out much and many teams will like his veteran presence. He represents one of the better left field options on the market, thanks to a resurgent 2009-2010 stretch. He declined a $2MM salary with the Dodgers, which means he'll look to best that mark and likely won't have trouble doing so. It's at least possible a team commits two years, but I'd assume most will want to stick to one-year deals, probably with a club option. Podsednik can likely command a salary in the $3MM-$4MM range, and if he can maintain his speed, it wouldn't be a terrible commitment.

Podsednik's nothing too special at this point, but he picked a good time to enter free agency. A weak market and back-to-back solid seasons will earn him a respectable payday.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jon Rauch

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Twins fans feared the worst when Joe Nathan underwent Tommy John surgery last spring, but Jon Rauch's ability to close games was a big reason why Minnesota won the AL Central.  Though Rauch lost the closing role to Matt Capps in July, the 6'11" right-hander still went 21-for-25 in save opportunities, posted a 3.12 ERA in 59 appearances and had an impressive 3.29 K/BB ratio.

Let's see how Rauch stacks up on the free agent market this winter…

The Pros

  • Rauch is a Type B free agent, so a team can sign him without losing a compensatory draft pick.
  • Rauch might be eager to get away from Target Field.  His ERA in 30 home games last season was 4.45, compared to just a 1.84 ERA in 29 road games.
  • He's pretty solid against hitters on both sides of the plate.  He's obviously better against right-handed hitters (holding them to a .238/.280/.372 career slash line) but Rauch has also done well against left-handed bats — .255/.328/.417.

The Cons

  • Rauch lost the stopper's job both last year and in Arizona in 2009.  Teams looking for a closer could be worried by the fact that Rauch has yet to show he can handle the job for a full season.
  • Rauch tends to make things interesting at the end of games.  His H/9 rate was a career-high 9.5 last season.
  • After averaging 80.5 appearances per season from 2006 to 2009, Rauch pitched in just 59 games last year due to a variety of minor injuries.  He turned 32 last month.

The Verdict

Rauch is more likely to be signed as a set-up man than as a closer, and his solid career track record makes him a candidate for a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of two years and $7MM.  Teams looking for closing help this winter include the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Angels and Rays, so Rauch could get a look from those clubs to be at least part of a closing committee.  Rauch could also be signed by a team like Atlanta or Washington as an experienced backup option should their young closers (Jonny Venters and Drew Storen, respectively) falter.   

It's possible the Twins offer Rauch salary arbitration.  He'll get a raise from his $2.9MM salary last season, but if he can't find more than that on the open market, he could accept arbitration and then work out a contract to stay in the Twin Cities.  The Twins would be giving up the sandwich pick they'd receive if Rauch signed elsewhere, but with so many free agent relievers in their bullpen, Minnesota will still be in line for other compensation picks.  The Twins themselves are one of the clubs looking for closing depth if Nathan isn't fully recovered or back in form after his surgery.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Frank Francisco

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Neftali Feliz is ready to close games in the World Series and is a strong candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year Award, but it's easy to forget that he didn't even start the season as the Rangers' closer. That job belonged to Frank Francisco, who saved 25 games in 29 chances last season. He blew the save in his first two opportunities of the season and sported a double digit ERA in late-April, putting the ninth inning in Feliz's hands.

Francisco is set to hit the free agent market for the first time in his career in a few weeks, so let's break down his stock…

The Good

  • After the rough start, Francisco was exceptionally strong as Feliz's setup man the rest of the way. After April 20th, he pitched to a 2.83 ERA with 56 strikeouts and just 13 unintentional walks in 47.2 innings.
  • He's dominant, striking out 200 batters over the last three seasons (10.9 K/9) walking just 54 unintentionally (2.94 BB/9).
  • As stated before, he has experience closing games, not mention familiarity with the setup role as well. Versatility is always a plus.

The Bad

  • Francisco finished the year on the disabled list due to a strained rib cage suffered in late August and hasn't been able to pitch in the playoffs. He also hit the disabled list twice in 2009 due to a shoulder strain, plus once more with a bout with walking pneumonia.
  • He can be prone to the long ball, averaging one homer for just a touch over every nine innings pitched over the last three seasons. The Ballpark in Arlington has exacerbated that problem, his HR/9 on the road since 2008 is a much more managable 0.68.
  • Francisco is projected to be a Type-A free agent, so if the Rangers offer him arbitration, a team would have to surrender a high pick to sign him.

Verdict

Francisco's offseason is going to depend on whether or not the Rangers offer him arbitration. If they don't, his stock will be much higher because the stigma of forfeiting a high draft pick is gone. If they offer and he declines, he could find himself in a Juan Cruz circa 2008-2009 situation, where he's unemployed late into the offseason because no one feels he's worth giving up a pick. There's also a non-zero chance that Francisco would accept an arbitration offer, since an award would push him close to $4MM next year ($3.265MM salary in 2010). He might not be able to find that much money on the open market.

If Francisco does hit the market, perhaps his best course of action would be to take a one-year deal to serve as a non-contender's closer, building up his value so he could shoot for a multi-year guarantee next winter. He could also be a nice fallback option for a team breaking in a young and/or inexperienced closer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes

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Brian Fuentes was in the right place at the right time in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 30 save season when several clubs were willing to spend big on closers.  He fell 20 games finished short of having his 2011 option vest, so the 35-year-old lefty is headed for free agency.  Let's assess his position.

The Pros

  • Fuentes dominated lefties this year: 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, no home runs in 14 innings.  Also in the small sample department: Fuentes was untouchable in 9.6 innings with the Twins.
  • Assuming Mariano Rivera doesn't field offers from multiple teams, Fuentes can make a case as the second-best free agent closer unless Bobby Jenks is non-tendered.
  • He's a Type B free agent who won't be offered arbitration anyway, so there's no draft pick cost.  Last time around, the Rockies snagged the Angels' #32 pick and chose Tim Wheeler while also taking Rex Brothers in the supplemental round.

The Cons

  • Fuentes is 35 and dealt with back pain this year.
  • He's prone to free passes, with a 3.8 BB/9 on the season.
  • He allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings and a .227 BABIP, figures that he's highly unlikely to replicate.
  • Fuentes had the highest flyball rate in baseball (58.5%) among those with 40 innings pitched.
  • He's been ordinary against righties the past two years, according to his FanGraphs splits page.
  • Fuentes' price tag will come with the typical closer inflation.

The Verdict

Fuentes may come into the offseason seeking two years and a closer gig, but the supply of available stoppers outweighs the vacancies.  He may have to settle for one year and $4MM unless Beverly Hills Sports Council can create a bidding war.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Correia

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Like the Padres, Kevin Correia started the season well but slumped down the stretch. There's no question that the 30-year-old's late-season struggles will limit his asking price this winter. Here's a closer look at the right-hander's free agent stock:

The Pros

  • Correia can strike hitters out (7.1 K/9 in 2010).
  • He stayed healthy all year.
  • Teams were showing interest in Correia not long ago; the Brewers and Rays asked about him last offseason. 
  • Despite the righty's 5.40 ERA, defense-independent pitching stats suggest he was unlucky. Nearly 15% of fly balls hit off of Correia left the yard, so homers inflated his ERA.
  • Correia has induced more grounders in the past two seasons (45% ground ball rate in '09, 49% ground ball rate in '10). This suggests he could pitch just as effectively in a considerably smaller park than Petco.
  • He's just a year removed from a season in which he posted a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts.

The Cons

  • He posted a 5.40 ERA last year, allowing more than a hit per inning. Lucky or not, those numbers are ugly.
  • Bud Black took note and removed the right-hander from the Padres' rotation in September. Correia had posted a 6.18 ERA between June and August. That's one long slump.
  • His walk rate jumped from 2.9 BB/9 to 4.0 BB/9 in 2010.

The Verdict 

It doesn't look great for Correia, though he shouldn't have trouble drawing interest. Teams like the Orioles and Brewers will be looking for back-of-the-rotation arms this offseason and Correia's ability to induce grounders would play well in homer-friendly places like Camden Yards and Miller Park. But other free agents (including former Brewer Dave Bush and former Oriole Kevin Millwood) will be vying for rotation spots and Correia doesn't have much leverage given his poor finish. A one-year deal worth $2MM or so seems like a reasonable target for the San Diego native, who may well end up with the Padres again.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ty Wigginton

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Coming off an .876 OPS season with Houston in 2008, Ty Wigginton signed a two-year, $6MM deal with the Orioles.   He had a .258/.313/.409 line in 1085 plate appearances for Baltimore and was named to the AL All-Star Team after a superb April and May last season.  Let's see what a team will get by signing the 33-year-old this winter…

The Pros

  • Wigginton appeared in 98 games at first, 40 games at second and 22 games at third last season.  A lot of clubs could use a utility infielder able to cover three positions, plus he also has corner outfield experience.
  • As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted last week, the free agent market for third basemen is very thin once you get past Adrian Beltre.
  • Wigginton is coming off a 22-homer season, though just nine of those home runs came after May 23.  He has always had some pop in his bat, compiling a .446 slugging percentage in his career.

The Cons

  • Wigginton may be versatile, but he has a below-average UZR/150 at all three of his infield positions, especially at second and third.  He does have a 9.5 UZR/150 in the outfield, however.
  • The right-handed hitter has a career .816 OPS against left-handed pitching (and a .755 OPS against righties), but his numbers against southpaws have dipped considerably over the last two seasons.  Wigginton posted a .650 OPS and a .679 OPS against southpaws in 2009 and 2010, respectively. 

The Verdict

Wigginton is probably in line for a one-year contract worth no more than $2-$2.5MM.  It's unlikely he'd be used in anything but a platoon or bench role, though his declining numbers against lefties will concern teams looking for a veteran right-handed bat.

Since Wigginton can play all over the diamond, any number of teams could see him as a useful bench option.  He could return to Baltimore at a lower price since there appears to be mutual interest between he and the Orioles, plus the O's would prefer a known quantity to fill in should Josh Bell not be able handle the everyday third base job.   MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli notes that Wigginton will be looking for a multi-year commitment, which Baltimore isn't keen to offer (Twitter link).

Wherever Wigginton plays in 2011, expect him to draw interest at the trade deadline as he did last July.  Wigginton's versatility makes him a candidate for any team looking to fill a hole created by a midseason injury.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Derrek Lee

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With his roster losing player after player due to injury, Braves GM Frank Wren swung a deal with the Cubs that brought two-time All Star Derrek Lee to Atlanta in August. Lee was just a rental player however; he's scheduled to hit the free agent market this winter as the five-year, $65MM extension he signed with Chicago in 2006 ends. Let's examine his stock…

The Good

  • After a subpar performance with the Cubs this season, Lee rebounded to hit .287/.384/.465 in 151 plate appearances with the Braves. Perhaps being on a contender reinvigorated him.
  • Even as age saps his power, he remains a strong on-base threat, drawing at least 71 walks in each of the last four seasons.
  • Lee has a reputation as being a tremendous defensive first baseman, and the advanced metrics back it up: his +12.5 UZR over the last three seasons is one of the best marks in the game at the position.
  • Lee fell just short of qualifying as a Type-A free agent, so a team will not have to forfeit a high draft pick to sign him (assuming Atlanta offers him arbitration and he declines).
  • At 35-years-old, a long-term commitment will not be required.

The Bad

  • Lee played through a torn ligament in his thumb at the end of the season according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, and recently underwent an MRI to determine the extent of the damage and the next step. He also battled back and neck issues during the past two seasons, though neither landed him on the disabled list.
  • As I said before, age is beginning to steal some of his pop. Looking at isolated power, which measures extra-base power by removing singles from slugging percentage (it's just SLG-AVG), 2010 was Lee's worst power season (.168 ISO) ever, minimum 300 plate appearances. For comparison's sake, the MLB average for first basemen was .146 ISO this season, so he's still above average in that regard. But for how long?
  • Always known as a lefty masher, Lee dipped to just .257/.356/.421 against southpaws this year, his worst output against pitchers of the opposite hand since 2006.

The Verdict

Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko highlight the free agent first base crop, but Lee is about as good of a stopgap option as you'll find. He's a solid all-around player despite declining some in recent years, and his track record is both better and longer than other free agents like Lyle Overbay and Carlos Pena. Teams looking to solidify the first base position for a year or two while they wait for a prospect (or just want to avoid a long commitment) figure to show the most interest. That includes clubs like the Mariners, Orioles, Nationals (assuming Dunn leaves), Rangers, Rays, and maybe even the Cubs again.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonny Gomes

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The Reds hold a $1.75MM option on Jonny Gomes, and he'd like to return to Cincinnati, but as last year showed us, there's no guarantee that the team retains the 29-year-old left fielder. He was non-tendered following a more productive 2009 season, so it's entirely possible that Gomes hits the market once again. In a recent poll, MLBTR readers were split fairly evenly on whether or not the Reds would retain Gomes (58% said yes). Let's take a closer look at Gomes, now that his season is over:

The Good

  • Gomes has always crushed left-handed pitching. For his career, he owns a .276/.371/.507 line against southpaws.
  • Gomes is affordable. He signed for just an $800K base salary in 2010, though he did make an additional $500K in incentives due to exceeding 500 plate appearances. A team seriously interested in Gomes could have him for a couple million dollars at the most, and there's probably no need to commit multiple years.
  • At age 29 (30 in November), Gomes isn't likely to be in line for a sharp decline.
  • He's always been prone to strikeouts (career 30.2%), but this season that number dropped to a more respectable 24.1%. He also posted his highest line drive percentage (20.7%) since 2007.

The Bad

  • For as tough as he is on left-handed pitching, Gomes is rather pedestrian against right-handers. His .233/.309/.438 line isn't going to bring fear to the hearts of same-handed pitchers, but he does homer once every 20 PAs against them.
  • Defensively, Gomes is no wizard. Primarily a left fielder, he's only posted a positive UZR one time at the position; he rated slightly above average in 2009's small sample, but owns a -19.0 UZR/150 there for his career.
  • Gomes cut down on his K's this season, but also posted a career-low walk rate. His mark of 6.8% is likely the result of seeing more time against right-handers, which also accounts for his overall drop in slugging.

The Verdict

If the Reds buy out Gomes' option, he has a contractual clause stating that he must be released, making him available to all 30 teams. For all his flaws, Gomes is a useful player if utilized correctly. He punishes left-handed pitching and is respectable enough against right-handers to add reasonable depth to any club's bench. His ideal role is probably as a platoon DH and backup corner outfielder. The overall drop in his numbers should keep his 2011 salary in the $1MM-$2MM range, meaning he can be an affordable source of depth to interested suitors.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carl Crawford

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After the Rays were eliminated last night, left fielder Carl Crawford told Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune, "I don't want to leave.  Everybody knows that. I like it here, and I've made that known and wish something was able to be worked out."  Crawford added to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times today that it's a "high possibility I probably won't be back next year."  With the Rays lowering payroll, he's out of their price range.  Let's take a closer look at his free agent case.

The Pros

  • Crawford is a well-rounded offensive player.  He hit .307/.356/.495 this year with 19 home runs, showing the best power of his career.  He's a burner on the basepaths, typically good for 50+ steals at a success rate above 80%.
  • He's one of the game's best defensive outfielders in left field.
  • Crawford is a relatively young free agent at 29.  Perhaps he'll age better than most due to his athleticism.

The Cons

  • The contract will be a major commitment - at least five years and more than $15MM per season.  Crawford is the best available position player, and it wouldn't be a shock if bidding reached seven years and nearly $20MM per season.  Most $100MM deals have been regrettable.
  • Signing Crawford will cost a draft pick, as the Rays will offer arbitration and he'll turn it down.
  • Crawford will probably remain in left field.  If his speed slips and his slugging percentage suffers, his power could be below-average for the position.

The Verdict

MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith named a slew of potential Crawford suitors in August, but the Angels, Red Sox, and Tigers are perceived as the early favorites.  Crawford could be the first position player to sign for $100MM+ without a 20 home run season on his resume.

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