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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Arthur Rhodes

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Two years ago the Reds took a gamble on 39-year-old lefty Arthur Rhodes, signing him to a two-year, $4MM deal.  Last we read, interest was mutual on a new contract.  Still, let's examine Rhodes' free agent stock.

The Good

  • Since returning to the National League at the 2008 trade deadline, Rhodes has a 2.22 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.52 HR/9 in 121 2/3 innings across 160 appearances.  He's allowed only 86 hits in that time.
  • Rhodes dominated lefties this year in 23 2/3 innings, and was solid against them the previous two seasons.  His consistent ability to prevent them from getting hits is not credited in a stat like xFIP.
  • Rhodes has been around since 1991, so he should offer the intangible of veteran wisdom.

The Bad

  • Rhodes is a Type A free agent.  We'll know late tomorrow whether the Reds offer arbitration.  If Rhodes turns down such an offer, a new team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign him.  This could hurt his market quite a bit.
  • Rhodes turned 41 last month, which may give teams pause if he seeks a two-year deal. 
  • He doesn't get many groundballs.  That hasn't stopped him from preventing home runs, but some clubs could be concerned.  Also, Rhodes is ordinary against right-handed hitters.
  • ESPN's Keith Law wasn't kind in his relievers buyer's guide, saying Rhodes' stuff was diminished toward the end of the year and he is "a bad month away from a forced retirement."  Would he succeed back in the American League?  In Rhodes' defense, he dealt with a sore foot for much of the season.

The Verdict

Rhodes' Type A designation could prevent him from getting another two-year deal.  If the Reds offer arbitration, his best move might be to accept rather than try to score a contract elsewhere with the draft pick stigma attached.  He'd still be in pretty good shape with a potential $4MM salary for 2011.  If the Reds do not offer arbitration, I think Rhodes will get another two-year deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Miguel Olivo

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The Blue Jays pulled off a nice little move when they acquired Miguel Olivo from the Rockies 17 days ago, essentially swapping a player to be named later or cash for a supplemental first round draft pick. Toronto declined Olivo's $2.5MM option, so add the $500K buyout to the bounty for the draft pick, but more importantly it made Olivo a free agent. Let's review the backstop's stock…

The Good

  • Olivo is a proven power threat, hitting no fewer than a dozen homers every year since 2006 and averaging 16 per season during that span. Brian McCann is the only other backstop with double digit homers in each of those years (min. 60% of games behind the plate).
  • He's adept at stopping the running game, throwing out 124 of 343 attempted basestealers (36.2%) over the last five seasons.
  • Despite the rigors of catching, Olivo has been on the disabled list just once in his career; he missed 15 days when he had kidney stones removed during the summer of 2004. Other than various day-to-day ailments associated with the position, he's been perfectly healthy.
  • He's just a Type-B free agent, so it won't cost a draft pick to sign him.

The Bad

  • Olivo will turn 33 next July, an age when catchers can start to turn into pumpkins.
  • Power is the only thing to like about his offensive game. He doesn't hit for average (.246 career) or draw walks (just 108 unintentional walks in over 3,000 career plate appearances), resulting in paltry on-base percentages (.283 career).
  • As good as he is at throwing out base runners, Olivo has led the league in passed balls in four of the last five seasons.

The Verdict

As usual, the number of teams looking for a catcher this winter far exceeds the number of quality catchers available. The Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Dodgers, Padres, and others could all be in the market for a new backstop, so Olivo should have his pick of offers. He's not likely to match John Buck's three-year, $18MM contract given his age, but Olivo's one of the best free agent catchers and the open market should yield a two-year contract.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Grant Balfour

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One member of the Rays' 2010 bullpen has already inked a lucrative three-year deal, but Joaquin Benoit won't be the only Tampa Bay reliever to draw interest this winter. Let's examine the stock of Grant Balfour, another of the team's free agent right-handers.

The Good

  • Balfour posted a 2.98 ERA in three seasons for Tampa Bay, including a 2.28 mark in 2010. In his 181 innings over the last three years, he's struck out 10.3 batters per nine innings, and even closed occasionally, recording eight saves.
  • He has enjoyed that success while playing in the tough AL East, so there shouldn't be any doubt about his ability to play for any team in either league.
  • When MLBTR's Tim Dierkes ranked the top 50 free agents, he placed Balfour just a few spots behind Benoit. Considering Benoit earned a $16.5MM deal, Balfour's odds of signing for multiple years look good.

The Bad

  • Balfour is a Type A free agent, meaning it'll cost a high draft pick to sign him if he declines arbitration. For teams with protected first round picks or teams who sign two or three Type A players, this won't be as significant an issue, but it could limit his market to some extent.
  • Though the 33-year-old doesn't have a history of health problems, he did spend a month on the disabled list in 2010 with a rib injury.
  • Balfour has only thrown more than 60 innings once in his career, in 2009. It was the worst of his seasons with the Rays (4.81 ERA, 4.4 BB/9).

The Verdict

We haven't heard much yet about the market for Balfour this offseason, but he's coming off an impressive 2010 campaign and should be one of the more appealing non-closers available. MLBTR's writers were split on where the righty will land, with the Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Dodgers receiving votes. I'd imagine the Mets, Angels, Red Sox, and a handful of other teams would have some interest as well.

The Levinson Brothers, who negotiated Benoit's contract, also represent Balfour, and will likely be hunting for a similar offer. While I don't think they'll match the three years and $16.5MM that Benoit received from the Tigers, I expect Balfour to land a two-year, eight-figure deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Scott Downs

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Left-handed relievers are always in high demand regardless of the time of year, and this offseason Scott Downs is the best the free agent market has to offer. Let's examine the former Blue Jay's stock… 

The Good

  • Downs isn't just a lefty specialist, he's perfectly capable of facing right-handed batters as well. Over the last three seasons, he's held righties to a .238/.325/.329 batting line (removing intentional walks) compared to .198/.264/.316 vs. LHB. 
  • He's already proven to be more than capable against the tough lineups that inhabit the AL East.
  • Downs has experience in a variety of roles, so he's an option to both close or set-up.

The Bad

  • Downs will turn 35 in Spring Training, so a three-year deal will carry him through age 37.
  • He's been on the disabled list three times since 2008 with foot and ankle issues, and he also missed the last two-plus weeks of the 2009 season with a hamstring issue.
  • Downs is a Type-A free agent that will certainly be offered arbitration, so it'll cost a high draft pick to sign him.

The Verdict

Joaquin Benoit's three-year, $16.5MM deal might have set the market for Downs, who's the best non-Rafael Soriano reliever on the market. The Red Sox are expected to show interest though the Yankees are reportedly not willing to surrender the draft pick. A reliever of Downs' quality fits with all 30 clubs, but only a few may be willing to offer multiple years at potentially closer money to sign him. Tim projected him to sign with Boston, and the smart money is on Downs joining a contender's bullpen.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brandon Webb

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The Athletics guaranteed $10MM to Ben Sheets in January even though he'd missed the entire 2009 season due to elbow surgery.  The signing was not a success, but Sheets' upside must have been tantalizing for the A's.  This winter, free agent Brandon Webb presents a more exaggerated risk/reward scenario for teams.  Webb is two years removed from the Majors due to shoulder surgery, but his agent Jonathan Maurer still considers Sheets' deal a "conversation starter."  Webb missed more time than Sheets, but Maurer's client finished first or second in the Cy Young voting each year from 2006 to '08.

Today Maurer provided MLBTR details about Webb's September/October instructional games, and also said he expects 30+ starts from his client in 2011:

Brandon pitched for the first time competitively (in 17 months) in September and October in three instructional games. The first game, Webb threw 80% and was 78-80 mph. The second game Webb was closer to 90% and was 81-83, and the third game, Webb, still laying back a bit, was 81-85.  The reality is that Brandon showed good pitchability (he had strong movement on his signature sinker, plus plus change, and plus breaking ball).  What he also had was some rust on location.  Brandon's velocity is of very little concern to those that watch a lot of games.  His arm strength is indeed coming back, and honestly, he pitched at 87-90 all of 2008 (when he won 22 games) and that is only 2-5 mph off where he was in October. 

Brandon's surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, fully expects him to prepare at a normal pace to be ready when camp opens in February, for whomever signs him.  Brandon is hungry, excited, and ready to start 30 plus times in 2011.  There is nothing to indicate he won't, with all the work he has put in and his consistent offseason workout program.

So far reports indicate that the Dodgers and Nationals have checked in on Webb, though surely many more clubs have kicked the tires.  Back in October, John Tomase of the Boston Herald reported that 21 teams watched Webb throw at Chase Field.  Will Webb reach the $7.5-10MM guarantee his agent seeks?  I think he may fall a bit short, but $5-6MM would not be surprising.  Incentives should allow the righty to top $10MM.  Webb's first bout with free agency comes at an inopportune time in his career, but a vintage 2011 season would result in a huge contract.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Victor Martinez

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Quality catching is extremely hard to come by these days, and Victor Martinez is the best backstop available on the free agent market by a wide margin. Let's review his stock…

The Good

  • Martinez is as consistent with the bat as they come. He's posted an OPS between .844 and .879 in six of the last seven years. 
  • A true switch hitter, Martinez is a .301/.379/.482 hitter from the right side and .298/.363/.462 from the left, so the drop-off is minimal.
  • Despite the rigors of catching regularly, V-Mart has only been on the disabled list twice in the last seven years. He had surgery to remove bone chips in his right elbow in 2008, and fractured his thumb on a foul tip this year.
  • He's also versatile, capable of both catching and playing first base. DH is always an option as well.

The Bad

  • Martinez's defense behind the plate leaves plenty to be desired. He's thrown out just 24% of attempted base stealers in his career, and over the last two seasons that mark is just 18.8%. 
  • At 31 years old (32 next month), his days behind the plate are probably numbered.
  • Martinez is a Type-A free agent and will certainly be offered arbitration, so it'll cost a high draft pick to sign him.

The Verdict

Martinez rejected Boston's two-year contract extension offer over the summer, so he's clearly looking to land a big payday while he can. Aside from the Red Sox, the Tigers, Orioles, and Rockies are all said to have interest in the switch hitting catcher, so competition will be steep. He's one of the few true impact bats in this free agent class and will be paid accordingly, though the smart money is on V-Mart ending a potential four-year contract as a full-time first baseman or DH.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam Dunn

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The Nationals and Adam Dunn went back-and-forth about a contract extension pretty much all season, though the outfielder turned first baseman eventually hit he free agent market for the second time in his career and is free to join with any club now. Let's look at where his stock stands…

The Good

  • Dunn has mammoth power, a skill that is becoming increasingly more difficult to find. He hit 38 homers in 2010 for the second straight year, and his 282 big flies since the start of the 2004 season are the second most in baseball behind Albert Pujols (294).
  • He's also an on-base machine, drawing at least 100 walks in six of the last seven years and in seven of the last nine.
  • Listed at 6-foot-6 and 285 lbs., Dunn is supremely durable. He's played in 1,108 of 1,134 possible games from 2004 through 2010, and his only career DL trip came back in 2003, when he missed 44 days with a sprained thumb.

The Bad

  • All of that power comes with the trade-off of high strike out totals. Dunn's struck out no fewer than 164 times in each of the last seven years.
  • Dunn's on-base percentage dropped to .356 in 2010, his lowest mark since 2003. That's the result of just 77 walks compared to his usual 100+, though given his track record and age (31) it could be a fluke.
  • A lefty swinger, Dunn has a considerable platoon split. Left-handers held him to a .719 OPS this season (.965 vs. RHP).
  • Regardless of where he is on the field – outfield or first base – he's a liability defensively, one of the very worst in the game. Dunn has also indicated that he doesn't want to be a designated hitter, limiting his market if true.
  • Dunn is a Type-A free agent and it's likely that the Nationals will offer him salary arbitration. Any team that signs him (other than Washington) will have to surrender a high draft pick.

The Verdict

Dunn is one of the best players available this winter, ranking fifth on Tim Dierkes' list of the top 50 free agents. He rejected Washington's three-year contract extension offer, so clearly he's looking to secure the long-term contract he wasn't able to land two years ago. 

It's easy to envision a power bat like this fitting into every lineup in baseball, but only few have the resources to sign Dunn. The Cubs are expected to have interest given their first base opening, but be sure that the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, and others will be rumored land spots at some point this offseason.

Free Agent Stock Watch: J.J. Putz

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Adding right-handed reliever J.J. Putz last December for a $3MM guarantee was a brilliant move by White Sox GM Kenny Williams.  Putz's stock is back up after a lost 2009; let's take a look.

The Good

  • In four of the last five seasons, including last year, Putz struck out more than ten batters per nine innings.  His control with the Sox this year returned to an acceptable level, at 2.5 walks per nine.  Putz posted a solid 48.5% groundball rate, his best since '06.  He had no problems getting left-handed hitters out.  His 2.83 ERA was well-deserved.
  • Putz has closing experience from 2006-08 with the Mariners.  With an average fastball velocity of 94.0, he can be intimidating in the ninth inning.
  • He's a Type B free agent, so he won't cost a draft pick to sign regardless of whether the White Sox offer arbitration.

The Bad

  • Putz, 34 in February, hasn't reached 55 innings in a season since '07.  His only ailment this year was a knee injury, but he had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow in June of '09.
  • It may have been related to the elbow injury, but Putz walked 5.6 per nine innings from 2008-09.  He walked 4.8 per nine over the last two months of this season.
  • Potentially, Putz could seek a multiyear deal or a salary matching his '09 base of $5MM.

The Verdict

Closing jobs are hard to come by, but my guess is that Putz will instruct his agent at LSW Baseball to seek such an opportunity first.  That could mean the Rays, Blue Jays, Angels, Braves, Marlins, or Diamondbacks.  He could also stay close to home and sign with the Tigers, or set up for teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, or Cardinals.  Two years and $10MM seems plausible.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Vladimir Guerrero

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Vladimir Guerrero made Jon Daniels and the Rangers look pretty smart this year, but he could make another organization look foolish in 2011. That's not to say Guerrero can't repeat his 2010 success, but here are some facts to consider about the likely Hall of Famer:

The Pros

  • Guerrero hit .300/.345/.496 with 29 homers in 2010 and finished 9th in the league in homers and total bases.
  • He struck out just 60 times in 643 regular season plate appearances.
  • He will probably be available on a one-year deal.
  • Guerrero is a Type A free agent, but the Rangers, who turned down his option last week, don’t figure to offer arbitration. As long as Texas doesn’t offer arbitration, Guerrero won’t cost a draft pick.

The Cons

  • He turns 36 before the season begins.
  • As anyone who watched the World Series knows, Guerrero is no longer a legitimate option in the outfield. He played just 18 regular season games in the field and is now a full-time DH.
  • He started hot, but posted an OPS over .800 just once from July to October.
  • Guerrero has always been a free swinger and he'll always be one. Last year was no exception; he swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the zone than any qualified hitter in the game.

The Verdict

Guerrero will likely sign a one-year deal given his age and the market for DHs. Many DHs are available for a relatively small number of jobs, so it seems unlikely that any team would offer two years. The Rangers could bring him back and the Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins, Tigers, A's and Mariners could all be looking for DHs too, so Vlad should have a number of suitors after a successful 2010 campaign. A one-year deal worth $8MM or so seems likely for Guerrero.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Lance Berkman

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Less than a year ago, Lance Berkman felt that the Astros picking up his $15MM option for 2011 was a possibility.  He was since traded to the Yankees, who declined the option without pause.  Let's examine his free agent story.

The Good

  • Berkman's .368 OBP this year was actually his worst since his rookie campaign.  If his batting average comes back up from .248 he'll be even more of an on-base asset.
  • He can still play some first base, logging almost 800 innings there in 2010.
  • Berkman will not cost a draft pick to sign and ought to be open to a one-year deal.

The Bad

  • Like Manny Ramirez, the walks are still there but the power is slipping.  Berkman slugged just .413 in 481 plate appearances this year, about on par with Miguel Cairo and Ty Wigginton.  Berkman did not finish strong, slugging .349 in 123 Yankees plate appearances.
  • Berkman turns 35 in February.  He had 41 DL days this year due to knee surgery and an ankle sprain.  On the flip side, if he acts mostly as a DH in 2011 and stays healthy, some power could return.
  • He's a switch-hitter, but left-handed pitching has been a problem the last few years.

The Verdict

Berkman could make a quality platoon bat, but he's probably not ready to take that role.  If he's flexible on first base versus designated hitter, he can probably find 500 plate appearances in 2011 for around $5MM.  The Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Tigers, Athletics, and Mariners could have openings.  However, a few DH types figure to be left out in the cold this offseason so it makes sense to sign early.

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