In case you weren't aware, the upcoming offseason's free agent class is ... well, it's... not exactly the stronge-- ok, it's not good. It's a weak class. Despite being headlined by a two-time Cy Young winner, that was always expected to be the case. The fact that said Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, is currently out following surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow only further dampens the group's overall earning power.
We're due for an update on our Free Agent Power Rankings. That'll likely be published at some point next week. Our power rankings are always based on total earning power rather than individual impact. If you're a 38-year-old ace, you probably won't rank as highly as a 28-year-old regular at third base, because that 28-year-old is going to have access to a much longer (and thus more lucrative overall) contract than said 38-year-old. Sorry Chris Sale, them's the breaks.
That said, it's been a brutal year for most of the names at the top of an already underwhelming free agent class -- pitchers and hitters alike. Skubal, as mentioned, had elbow surgery. He'll be back -- sooner than originally anticipated, by all accounts -- but he's not going to take home a third straight Cy Young Award. Bo Bichette can opt out of his Mets contract ... but he's hitting .225/.273/.317. Trevor Rogers missed time on the injured list and has a nearly 7.00 ERA through nine starts. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been terrific in May, but that only offsets an awful April. Tatsuya Imai came to MLB with plenty of hype and an opt-out-laden contract that potentially set him up to reenter free agency and cash in on a mega-deal next winter -- at least until he posted a 6.17 ERA through his first six MLB starts.
Any and all of these players have time to turn things around, and while the headline of this particular post is admittedly a bit hyperbolic, it's also true that most of the market's top bats aren't doing much to elevate their case. A big four months would make Chisholm's April a distant memory, but we're not there yet. Daulton Varsho has been better than average at the plate but hasn't shown the same power he did last year. Bichette's start has been dismal. Taylor Ward has followed up his 36-homer 2025 season by hitting two round-trippers through the first third of the 2026 season.
We'll cover a lot of the bigger names on the forthcoming update to our Power Rankings, but here's a look at some bats who probably won't make the list but are nonetheless trending in a positive direction. (Note that I'll be excluding some smaller-sample breakouts/resurgences for this list; Jorge Mateo's .324/.370/.471 slash looks great, but it's 73 plate appearances being propped up by a silly .455 BABIP and combined with a 30% strikeout rate. Let's not get too carried away.)
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pirates
Pittsburgh's acquisition of Lowe in the three-team trade that sent Mike Burrows to Houston and Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay looks like one of the best moves of the offseason. The 31-year-old (32 in July) is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career. Lowe has belted 14 home runs in only 51 games. His 11.2% walk rate is the second-highest of his career, while his 23.7% strikeout rate is the second-lowest.
Not only are those excellent marks both relative to his career levels and the rest of the league, they both put a halt to some worrying trends. Lowe has always struck out a fair bit, but his 2022 mark of 22.9% looked like it might be a step in the right direction. Instead, it climbed to 27% from 2023-25 and did so while his walk rate plummeted to a career-worst 6.9% last year. Lowe still chases a bit too much, but he's made big gains on his in-zone contact rate and done so without sacrificing much in the way of hard-hit balls.
Durability will be key for Lowe, who played in only 415 of 648 possible games from 2022-25 (64%). However, he's currently on pace to match his career-high 39 home runs, set back in 2021, and he's doing so with the best strikeout-to-walk profile of his career.
If Lowe actually stays healthy and flirts with 40 homers, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's not in the top 10 on our list. But even if his power output cools down, he's done a nice job improving his stock thus far.
The open market in modern baseball rarely rewards pure second basemen, which is what Lowe is at this point. He's played exactly three innings of outfield since the 2021 season wrapped, and he has all of 155 career innings at first base. It also rarely compensates 32-year-olds on long-term deals. Lowe has an uphill battle based on position and age, but he's still angling for a nice multi-year deal.
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Lowe has been great defensively. Power legit. Would I want to bet big on that and his good health continuing? Only if I am a serious contender and desperate and 2b is only position I have to upgrade. He will have qualifying offer so will lose draft pick.
If he’s traded in season, there’s no qualify offer, no loss of draft pick
I really can’t see that happening.
If they keep him the entire season the qualify offer could be $23M, not sure he would take it or the Pirates offer it
Brandon Lowe is killing it. And I can’t wait til the Cubs let Happ go!
Happy is least of their problems!
He most definitely is one of their biggest problems. And don’t go on about the pitching injuries- they happen. And since this article features Happ, I say he needs to go- sooner than later.
Randy Arozarena has a .295/.382/.464 line while playing every game so far. He is in a contract year right now.
I think the M’s will definitely offer the QO and let him walk. While he’s been great this year, we don’t necessarily need to pay big money to a 30 year old corner outfielder when we have Laz and Arroyo in the wings, among other players.
Yeah, Arozarena has been great. He’ll be somewhere in the middle of the next power rankings so we’ll have highlight him there, but great season so far.
Who is the cubs ace? Shota? Rea? Taillon? I’d say shota easily!
How about wicks?
Can’t be shota or taillon because they give up too many long ball so it looks like wicks or even brown!
Cubs don’t have an ace. They barely have a rotation.
Wonder if Minassian thought he was getting Brandon when he traded for Josh
Bleday has to be up there
Bleday is nowhere near free agency.
He’s on a one year deal
Not how that works. Reds control his rights for 2 additional seasons. He doesn’t have 6 seasons of service time.
Oh wow, I didn’t realize. That’s good news if he keeps it up, thanks
Yep, will be an absolute bargain for you guys if so.
Jedi will make sure Happ never reaches the market. Count on it.
If Arraez is traded, I hope it is to NL team so he can win batting avg title in NL because being traded to AL team could prevent that from happening.
I think it is long overdue for the MLB to official award MLB batting avg title, HR title and ERA and many other stat titles since there is so much interleague play now.
I don’t want to think about life without Brandon Lowe. He’s even better than expected. Not sure the deal he’d need to stay but hoping maybe he just accepts a QO and takes another year to decide.
He’s not young, so I feel like 4/100 or so is his ceiling.
Bauer, Jack… or was it Trevor?
SF has been a complete joke this year. The fact that they role the dice on relief pitchers (especially closers) is unacceptable. Losing leads in the 9th inning is so deflating and it usually turns into losing streaks. Every great team has an elite closer and the fact that Posey caught when they had 4 elite RP (Affeldt, Romo, Casilla, Lopez) and won 3 World Series at that time leaves one bewildered on why he doesn’t address this. I live in Utah and usually will go catch the Giants play a few games out west but they are not worth it this year. They don’t play with urgency, lack resilience, and they have got to try and unload Chapman. I doubt anyone would want him with that contract, but he has got to go. Schmitt can take over 3rd base
Ramirez again not in cubs lineup for Swanson who is looking more and more terrible at plate each passing day. Time to release Ramirez so he’d get some playing time to develop elsewhere.
Swanson has even moved up to 6th from 9th in baiting tonight so it’s another example why counsell cannot hurt dansby feelings!
Enough is enough already- 16- 0 today! Cubs should sell and all begins with hoyer being fired!