In case you're just tuning into the 2026 season, things aren't going great in Houston. The Astros escaped with a split in a doubleheader with the Orioles yesterday despite allowing a combined 15 runs in those games. They enter play Friday sitting on a 12-20 record. Houston's bullpen has been far and away the worst in baseball, due in no small part to star closer Josh Hader's lengthy stint on the IL to begin the season. Bryan Abreu went from arguably the game's best setup man to a low-leverage middle reliever in short order; his fastball is down more than two miles per hour, and his ERA sits just shy of 13.00. Veterans Enyel De Los Santos and Steven Okert were low-cost pickups last year who played big roles. Both have regressed (and then some) in 2026.
Meanwhile, a rotation that brought in several new arms this winter has only been marginally better. Again, injuries have played a role. Ace Hunter Brown is out with a shoulder strain. Offseason pickup Tatsuya Imai, a star righty in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball, struggled before hitting the IL with arm fatigue. Cristian Javier is sidelined into at least June with his own shoulder strain. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are still on the mend from 2025 Tommy John surgery. Neither is expected back before the All-Star break.
The lineup has at least provided good production. Houston hitters are batting .265/.346/.438 as a team. A disproportionate amount of their production has come from slugger Yordan Alvarez, who's decimating opposing pitchers at an MVP-caliber clip, but he's not alone. Christian Walker has more than just righted the ship after an awful start in 2025 -- he's arguably hitting better than he ever has before. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have been comfortably better than average at the dish. Isaac Paredes has found his stride after a slow start himself.
Even on this side of the ball, however, the 'Stros have had challenges. Jeremy Peña has been limited to just 10 games thanks to a pair of injuries (broken finger, hamstring strain). Jake Meyers looked solid through a dozen games before an oblique strain sent him to the shelf. The reacquired Joey Loperfido was solid through 20 contests before straining his quad. In recent weeks, Houston has regularly trotted out lineups including players like Braden Shewmake, Daniel Johnson and Dustin Harris, each of whom was acquired simply because the club needed warm bodies and lacked depth.
That's a symptom of a much larger and more concerning trend in Houston -- one that calls into question the club's outlook well beyond the current season.
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The Astros have spent big money where they should have pursued cheaper options and pinched pennies where they should have spent.
This winter that didn’t do nearly enough to rebuild the pitching staff. And didn’t even bother to address the outfield.
When you combine bad decision making at the MLB level and a series of bad drafts, you end up with a zombie baseball team.
@Jardinero
The did move Sanchez to the Jays while bringing back Loperfido. So they did dump a bigger salary to get back a MiLB salary. Addressed the OF while cutting payroll.
Loperfido is injured (of course).
This is what happens when an owner starts playing a big role in decision making and contract negotiations.
@Hammerin’ Hank
Sadly and more insidious is when capable underlings start couching and framing business baseball proposals based on leadership biases and preferences. It’s a good way to keep your job. Not necessarily a good path to success.
They had a very good long run. The type of run that is basically the peak for any team that is not the Yankees or Dodgers. There are very few teams that would not want to trade the 2016-2025 season with Houston. 2 WS titles, 2 additional AL pennants, 3 LCS appearances is an unbelievable 10 year run. I still don’t like HOW they built that team by tanking, but they did an excellent job of it.
Agreed. Im not sure why people are saying ‘spending’ or ‘owner involvment’. They’ve had an excellent run, but the system is designed to hurt top teams over time. The Astros have had a long run of quality playoff visits, with WS wins in 2017 (tainted) and again in 2022. Its about time to have a few down years.
Its healthy for the sport to rotate winners. The NFL does it to perfection. In the past 10 years, Seattle, KC and Denver have SBs. Although their baseball counter parts have been decent (except Colorado), I doubt any of them have ever been serious contenders for a WS. Its just not healthy, due to the fact that fans know their team cant win it all, ever (Pitt, Col, CWS, Minn, LAA).
Don’t forget that the Rockies made the playoffs in both 2017 and 2018 and they won over 90 games and took the Dodgers to a game 163 for the division title in 2018. I know it has been a while, but they were good for a couple years within the Astros run.
Jeff Luhnow built a team that was a winner for a decade. Dana Brown hasn’t shown anything at all to me. Crazy that even Hunter Brown came from Luhnow. Stros have been living off that. It was going to end. They’ve reached it now.. Still have some attractive pieces to sell off when they accept it.
You can say whatever about Jeff Luhnow from the cheating scandal. But that man could identify talent
Exactly. The Cardinals remained competitive for years, in spite Mo’s best efforts, because Luhnow left the cupboard so stocked. The Astros are in a similar situation. They have an owner who wants all the glory and prefers sycophants over talented leaders. The future doesn’t look great.
Listen to the podcast The Edge. Luhnow knew nothing about the scandal.
I don’t know why AJ Hinch didn’t tell anyone. I watched the documentary and the computer broke and Hinch was like okay, but they fixed it.
Thing is, Luhnow understood how important it was to keep the farm stacked with prospects. Not just to bring players up for the main squad but also for trade acquisitions. They had prospects to bring in Verlander, Greinke, Cole, etc. The current GM doesn’t seem to care about the farm system at all as they’re consistently ranked at the bottom every year.
Let’s not forget where Luhnow was drafting too. Correa: number 1 overall pick. Bregman: 2 overall pick. Tucker: five overall pick. When he started picking later, these were his first rounders: Forrest Whitley, JB Baukaskas (or something like that), Seth beer, and Korey Lee. Plus he drafted Mark Appel over Kris Bryant and also took Brady Aiken number 1 overall. Luhnow gets a lot of love but he wasn’t as great of a talent evaluator as people think. Give Dana brown top 5 draft picks and I bet he’d draft better.
I agree B’more. Dana Brown was on a telecast a month ago saying how he was “very pleased” with the surplus of pitching they had signed before the season. Guess which team is dead last in all pitching stat categories after 30 games.
I hope they’re bad for the next decade.
You wish. We aren’t the Angels who have an owner that doesn’t believe winning is a top 5 priority.
I don’t like the Angels either. It’s Seattle’s time in the sun!
As a Mariners fan, I 100% agree! Hopefully we can reach our first World Series sooner rather than later.
Well that’s true. I just don’t want the Dodgers to win the World Series (or the Yankees). I also don’t want the Mariners to win but it’s better than the Dodgers or the Yankees.
Dodgers=No baseball
Yankees=Something I Don’t Want To See Ever In My Life
The AL West is SEA Mariners to lose. As a Rangers fan I am happy we finally got the trophy in 2023!!! It’s SEA turn!!! I will be happy if we finish .500 and ecstatic if we make it the playoffs!!!!
Why did you put 3 exclamation marks behind the word ‘turn’? I get why you put 3 after ‘2023’ and 4 after ‘playoffs’, but why ‘turn’. I’m perplexed professer
They needed a decade of tanking to build a team
“They needed a decade of tanking to build a team”
Exactly. Bad for baseball.
Except it really not. Some teams have to be bad in order for others to be good. The Astros just gamed the system that baseball has had in place for years. If baseball is worried about losing teams being bad for the sport, then it should stop rewarding the worst teams with the best waiver position and best draft positions and biggest budget for draft and international signings.
Actually he was referencing the things fans found most important from a poll regarding game day experience. Context is key.
I hope they’re good.
You mean you hope we’re as bad as Jarred Kelenic turned out to be?
Dead last in the AL yet only 4 games back of a wild card spot. Most teams are bad so far this year. One hot week and the stros are right back in it.
Your awfully optimistic
The issue would be so many teams in race and overtaking. So yes technically any team can be in the mix.
Altuve has been horrendous, Smith has cooled down (a lot). But, the offense isn’t a problem. Walker is performing like how we thought he would be, Alvarez is a MVP level bat, Paredes has performed well. Hader and Brown are obviously the two biggest pieces out, and getting them back will be huge. Pena is a star, Meyers was performing like a piece of sit before going out, Javier was also performing like that.
We should rebuild the farm system by trading Alvarez, Pena, and Brown. That’s the only way we can be in contention by 2028.
I believe before the season started you said things couldn’t possibly go worse than 2025? Quick change of opinion.
Also, he wanted to dump Christian Walker for a bag of used cleats.
So you think trading their 3 best players gets them back into contention within 2 years? Who’s the optimistic one now? They had a good run now they are old and have no pitching.
I think I phrased it a bit off. I meant
AT EARLIEST 2028. Realistically more like 2030
I like cam smith but he may have been rushed plus the hype on him last year was a bit much and he fell off a cliff later in season. That said parades and smith was good return for Tucker who wasn’t returning anyways
Don’t forget Wesneski.
Obviously, I don’t ever want to see the Astros succeed.
That being said, I feel for the handful of very cool Astros fans I have met on this site. You guys had an excellent group of players for quite a while, and had a solid run. Should be interesting moving forward.
The Astros should trade Alvarez to the Red Sox
And we will want your entire farm system back!
To keep a perpetual contention window open you have to do one of two things. Either punt every few seasons and trade your players before they become free agents like the Rays, or spend in the top tier every season. Instead of committing to one or the other, Jim Crane has gone half-in on both plans and it doesn’t seem to be working. It’s hard to blame Dana Brown for how this has unfolded given the constraints Crane has him working under, not to mention the absurd run of injuries. I still think there’s a good team in here somewhere that could go on a run if they got healthy and locked in, but I fear the hole will be too deep by then.
If Alvarez is their most marketable player they should trade him. He might bring more in the offseason. Hader is a midseason candidate if he’s healthy. Peña and Brown should be traded as well. The team is old and bad. They need to rebuild around the new guys
Hader’s problem is his NTC and shoulder injury. Alvarez’s is his salary and injury history but if the Astros cover cash it shouldn’t be much of a problem. Trading Alvarez, Brown, Pena, Diaz, Walker etc (not counting players with NTC’s) would get you a farm system to look forward to.
Would the Yankees bring him back to replace Bird?
I am at a point where I just don’t see any chances for a postseason run in 2026. Its just one of those seasons.
I say trade everyone of value that is a FA before 2028.
Pena, Paredes, and Walker should all bring back legitimate prospects. Wait on (hope) Meyers, Abreu, and Okert to get healthy and/or reestablish some value to trade also.
Fire Joe Espada, as the fundamentals have gotten worse throughout his tenure and that’s what a young team needs for future success. Make Omar Lopez the interim mgr.
Bring up the kids like Joseph Sullivan, Ethan Frey, Ethan Pecko, and Miguel Ullola to learn MLB and get ready for an audition whenever baseball comes back in 2027.
Find a young but experienced MLB manager who can relate to the young players but has respect of the veterans.
Extend Yordan and Cam Smith.
Build the 2027 team around Yordan, Altuve, Correa, Smith, Brown, Arrighetti, and Hader.
Hopefully enough talent was brought in via trades that they have a puncher’s chance in 2027. If not trade Hunter and Hader at the deadline.
Then repeat in 2028.
Hopefully Kevin Alvarez and Xavier Neyens arrive in 2029 like George Springer and Carlos Correa.
Been an Astros fan since 1973. Baseball, like every other sport, is cyclical. Rarely do teams stay on top for a lengthy period of time, except maybe the Yankees and Dodgers, and those will always be that way due large market influences, IMO.
Every wave of success finishes in the valley. It’s inevitable, again, just IMO. It’s too early to say Houston is “circling the drain” I think. Well, ok, I hope.
Go Astros!!