Yesterday, the Orioles announced they optioned left-hander Cade Povich to Triple-A Norfolk. That news was hardly a surprise, as Povich is perhaps the seventh or eighth starter on the team’s depth chart. Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers form a solid top two, while offseason additions Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, and Zach Eflin fill the group out on paper.
That would leave Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer on the outside looking in. That’s at least true of Wells, who was officially informed he’d start the season in the bullpen two weeks ago. There remains a certain level of ambiguity regarding Kremer’s role, however. That’s a fairly new feeling for the right-hander, who has started 123 of his 126 games in the majors and been a full-time player in the majors since June 2022. In those four years, he’s been a solid but unspectacular back-end rotation piece with a 3.95 ERA and 4.17 FIP across 599 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 20.3% of his opponents while walking 7.4%, both numbers that hover right around league average.
Being a league average starting pitcher is hardly a bad thing. Volume has value, and Kremer’s 171 2/3 innings last year made him one of just 47 qualified starters in MLB. On the other hand, it’s not too difficult to improve on what he offers. Just 11 of those 47 pitchers had a worse season by ERA- than Kremer. Even by lowering the innings threshold to 100, Kremer clocks in ahead of just 40 of 119 starters on the list.
So, how is Kremer best used for Baltimore this year? The right-hander does have an option remaining, so the club could simply send him to the minors and have him at the ready in case one of their starting five gets injured. That could be preferable to moving Kremer to the bullpen. Having both Wells and Kremer in relief roles would leave the Orioles with their depth hollowed out to an extent. While there are certainly pitchers capable of sliding between the bullpen and rotation on a moment’s notice, it can take time for even players experienced in that sort of swing role to stretch out fully after moving from the bullpen.
The O’s could also give Kremer a spot in a six-man rotation. While the team’s bullpen has more than a dozen viable options, the only pitchers truly locked into spots appear to be Wells, Ryan Helsley, Keegan Akin, Dietrich Enns and Yennier Cano. They’ll eventually reinstall Andrew Kittredge into the late-inning mix, but he’ll start the season on the injured list after battling shoulder inflammation early in camp.
That’s the sort of depth that could support a six-man rotation, especially with Wells available to cover multiple innings. That could be an attractive option given that the rest of the rotation has plenty of reason to need extra rest. Bradish is coming off UCL surgery. Bassitt is entering his age-37 season. Rogers has never made more than 25 starts, and Eflin just suffered through an injury-marred season that ended in back surgery. A six-man rotation would offer each of those players some additional rest days and make it much easier to keep that group fresh for what the Orioles are surely hoping will be a deep run into October.
That aforementioned offseason surgery for Eflin could, at least in theory, offer a third option. Kremer could begin the season as the Orioles’ fifth starter while Eflin opens the season on the injured list, giving him more time to build up and kicking the decision down the road for a few weeks. Eflin was targeting an Opening Day return to action as far back as December, but even at the time acknowledged that it was far from a sure thing.
Fast forward to today, and he’s so far made just two appearances in Spring Training, the latest of which was abbreviated by a rainout. While he impressed in both outings, neither lasted more than two innings. It’s unclear, at this point, if Baltimore will be able to get Eflin fully stretched out for the start of the season or if they would be willing to dedicate a spot in a five-man rotation to him if he isn’t built up to anything close to the 90-100 pitches typically expected of an MLB starter.
How do MLBTR readers think the Orioles will settle their Opening Day rotation? Will they send Kremer to the minors, place Eflin on the injured list, or use both in a six-man rotation? Have your say in the poll below:
What will the Orioles rotation look like on Opening Day?
-
Zach Eflin will begin the season on the injured list. 52% (866)
-
The Orioles will fit both Eflin and Kremer into a six-man rotation. 35% (577)
-
Dean Kremer will begin the season in the minor leagues or the bullpen. 14% (226)
Total votes: 1,669
If Eflin is healthy send Kremer to AAA for when he inevitably gets injured. If Eflin has to start the year on the IL then this isn’t even a question
Kremer has proven he deserves to start MLB games. Not close to the top of the rotation but consistently gives 150 IP of 4 ERA ball
Why would you do a proven player like that, he deserves to be paid a major league salary not be stuckbin the minors, he can go multiple innings until the need for a starter arises
The easiest solution would be 6 man rotation. Probably not a terrible idea with Bradish and Eflin coming off injury filled seasons
I think Eflin starts the season on the IL realistically just for precautions if he’s outright not ready yet. Kremer will fill his role regardless, he’s not a high upside guy, but he delivers exactly what he always does, consistent winnable back of rotation innings.
I still think the upside play is to have Wells in that last spot of a 5/6 man rotation, but I imagine he does extremely well(s?) from the bullpen too.
Yes. He thrives in high leverage late inning role. 7th inning of close games kind of guy. 2-3 inning early season when guys are still getting their legs(Or arms I guess).
Baz is going to be good, but the price they gave up was insane. To be fair, I’m surprised they didn’t approach a team with a true ace for that package. Obviously you would have to add on but that would be a nice start.
Well, Nats probably would’ve accepted that for Gore, and I think O’s should’ve gotten him instead of Baz for that package.
It stays crunchy, even in milk. 🤣
They need to stop Eflin around.
You want some coffee with that Kremer?
Kremer usually gets off to a terrible start every year, and then improves as the year goes. I think like is the case with Wells though, Kremer’s stuff would play better out of the bullpen. I don’t think the Orioles can afford another terrible April from Kremer in the starting rotation. Career ERA of 4.63 in the first half, and a 3.76 ERA in the second half. Kremer’s March/April ERA is 6.24.
I guess it’s possible but I never considered Kremer to be likely to pop out of the pen. I think he’s a true back of the rotation starter.
Wells becomes very fastball heavy out of the pen and he has a significant velo gain in short spurts. I think the pen is where he truly belongs
No way Kremer should be in the pen or sent down. Efflin has had 2 years out of 10 where he pitched the full season. He belongs in the pen before Kremer.
The Os rotation will shake. And bake
Why does the world seem to think the vest way to use 6 starters is in a six man rotation?
Seems that a better way to hold down workload is to keep a five rotation and insert no. 6 to have each one skip one out of 5 starts. That way they get the same rest/workload but are all set to stay on schedule when the inevitable injury hits one of them. And when a skip happens, 9 -10 days rest will allow the pitching-thru-nagging-minor-ailment cases to better recover without missed IL.
That would work better with a group like the orioles where their worst starter, kremer, is the healthiest steadiest innings eater.
Anybody seen somewhere why this isnt tried?
Kremer really gets no respect. When he hits FA, he’s going to get a lot of years and a whole lot of money.
Yes he is going to be a lifetime 100M guy.
I like Kremer but what is a lot? I’d think he’s maxed out at $15-17MM for 2 or 3 years on a single contract in the best case contract.
He can pitch a long time on 10-12 million backend inning eaters. Kyle Gibson made 73M.
I don’t disagree. Pitcher health long term is always the question mark for guys who won’t get that one big deal to make their earnings though.
Who says he won’t get that deal. Say he pitches closer to 3.5 this year on a loaded offensive team. Next year he Steve Stone’s his arm. Has a great year, say close to 3 era and makes AS team. Gets 4 years 60-65M. All it takes is one desperate team.
That would be something he’s never done. I mean sure if he markedly improves then he can make more money. He’s been roughly the same pitcher for quite some time now though.
He gets the respect due a solid number 5 starter. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Eflin so if Zach really is in peak form this shouldn’t be a difficult decision.
Just a difficult conversation.
Kremer is a solid, dependable 4/5 start. Very good at controlling the run game. Doesn’t walk a lot. Gonna give you 20 outs with 3 runs. Gonna make a lot if money and play for a long time.
I wish MLB would adopt the NPB schedule. The big downer is the season would end October 11th.
Orioles have some legitimate depth in the rotation this season, a stark contrast to last season.
They are in good shape regardless of how they stack their top5 on opening day. The most important question is can Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish pitch as well as they did last season?
If you had to put money on one of them to make 30 starts, its Kremer.
Unfortunately, he’ll lay down several clunkers along with decent starts, so #5 level is what you get. But if you can rescue a clunker with 4 IP of Wells, it may not be so bad. Kremer’s value in absorbing IP is more than him pitching a couple innings out of the bullpen.
Bassitt is the other, but he’s turning 37 and is a 3-4 at this stage in his career. 4 straight years of 30+ starts. If he can put up one more season like that, we’ll take it. But – 37.
Most of the other starters have question marks. Bradish coming off injury. Baz was hurt 2 years ago. Eflin coming off injury. Rogers is a regression to the mean candidate and has never gotten more than 25 starts in a season. Wells will break if starting more than spot starts and he also has been effective as both a short and long reliever.
They don’t have the guy who you can place a high level of confidence in taking the ball 30+ starts and producing #1/#2 level stuff. They don’t want to pay for that. So here we are again hoping they can frankenstein a rotation together and that its “good enough.”
I’m a big Baz fan but he better out pitch GRod by a fairly wide margin this year. GRod being ready for opening day is a bad look for defending that deal.
As we know, each new day brings a chance Rodriguez gets hurt.
If he pitches like he did in ’24 before he went down last time, both Bassitt and Baz should outperform him.
I agree though, if Rodriguez puts up 30 league average starts or better, the deal doesn’t look very good. Unless Ward hits 50 or 60 HR this year.