The Red Sox opened the season with something of a patchwork rotation after the club lost three of its regular starters to the injured list to open the season. While Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito are both working their way back to the majors on rehab assignments, with Bello in particular scheduled to make his second of what MassLive’s Christopher Smith suggests could be three total rehab starts tomorrow, righty Kutter Crawford appears to be well behind the other two as MassLive’s Chris Cotillo writes that Crawford has not yet advanced to facing live hitters.
That both Bello and Giolito (who Smith notes is slated to start for Triple-A on Tuesday) are scheduled to make their second rehab starts this week is encouraging. The righties have both long been expected to rejoin the rotation at some point this month, and while Giolito’s exact timetable is still not yet fully clear the fact that Bello could return to the rotation after just three rehab outings means he could be back on the mound in Boston as soon as April 16 against the Rays in Tampa, assuming he maintains a schedule of regular rest and suffers no additional setbacks. Right-hander Richard Fitts and southpaw Sean Newcomb have been filling in at the back of the club’s rotation behind Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, and Walker Buehler, but it’s possible the club could opt for a six man rotation when the pitching staff is healthier.
That would potentially open up a path for either Fitts or Newcomb to continue starting for the Red Sox going forward while Crawford works his way back to the mound. Unfortunately, Cotillo suggests that’s still a ways away, writing that May or perhaps even June appear to be the most realistic timeline for the righty’s return to the majors. Crawford, 29, made all 33 of his starts for the Red Sox last year but pitched through knee issues last year that compromised his effectiveness in the second half and lingered into Spring Training. While Crawford told Cotillo that surgery is not currently on the table as a fix for his ailment, even the time he’s spent resting and treating the issue has served more to mitigate the pain rather than solve the problem entirely.
In other Red Sox news, Cotillo writes that club manager Alex Cora has indicated the club’s defensive plans for star prospect Kristian Campbell are changing. The versatile Campbell has split his time between second base and left field to this point in his brief big league career after playing the outfield, second base, third base, and shortstop in the minors. While no drastic changes to his usage are expected, with Campbell still remaining at the keystone on most days, Cora told reporters (including Cotillo) that the plan going forward is for Campbell to slide into center field on days where David Hamilton is in the lineup at second base.
Previously, Campbell had taken over left field with Jarren Duran shifting over to center on those days. The change comes as a result of Campbell’s comfort in center, where more than 80% of his minor league innings on the outfield grass have occurred, as well as Duran’s ability to handle the unusual left field situation in Fenway Park, which requires fielders to play balls off of the iconic Green Monster that tend to ricochet at atypical angles. Campbell has so far played just one game in left this year, but the amount of time he spends on the grass appears likely to be impacted primarily by the performance of Rafaela and Hamilton in the early days of the season and potentially the eventual call-ups of his fellow top prospects. If top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer makes it to the majors first, that would surely increase Campbell’s time spent in the outfield, while he’d likely spend even more of his time on the dirt if Mayer is beaten to the big leagues by top outfield prospect Roman Anthony.
have a feeling the red sox regret the rafaela extension
Why do you think they would? Have you looked at his contract? This year he makes 1.25 and his rate is around 3 mil for 26 and 27 and only gets to 5.75 mil in 2028..now thats a really long time and chews up arb years for a serviceable player and pennies on the dollar for a big market team like boston. Now he starts getting more expensive in 2029 ..but thats 4 years away i think they are good
Rafaela played stellar defense last year and was Top 3 or 4 in team RBIs with 75. He was also a menace on the base paths. He’s far from an All-Star right now, but he still made positive contributions to the 2024 team and we should expect him to improve this season. It was a cheap extension, so I don’t think Boston has any issues with it right now. With that said, I’m sure the Red Sox hope he breaks out this year as he’d be a great trade asset for the team. The future Red Sox OF probably looks like Campbell, Anthony & Abreu unless they decide to extend Duran (who I love, but too many LHHs).
An improved Rafaela on a cheap contract could be very attractive to other teams in the league. Let’s see how he performs this year before calling his deal regrettable.
Dotty – I know it’s common for announcers to hype defensive plays more than anything, but both the stats and the GG voting are proof Rafaela was average at best last year on defense.
Rafaela didn’t even get nominated for a position player GG
Rafaela didn’t even get nominated for a utility player GG
In the OF Rafaela’s Range was ranked 30th out of 100 (min 600 Innings).and his ARM, UZR and OAA were all between 12th and 28th.
Menace on the basepaths? He was caught stealing 10 times out of 29 attempts, that’s pathetic.
He was decent hitting with RISP, I’ll give him credit for that. But overall that $50M contract could go down as one of the worst in MLB history.
Pool – The thing is, Rafaela has a $50M contract and it’s fully guaranteed. Unless he’s traded, it doesn’t matter at all what he’s making this year or next year …. if he gets released 2 years from now or 1 year from now or today, the Red Sox would STILL have to pay him $50M in total.
What makes matters worse, BECAUSE the contract is backloaded it would make trading him much harder. Who the hell would want to pay $6M, $8M, $11M and $13M (+$4M Option Buyout) for a .649 OPS hitter? That’s $41.5M for the second half of his contract, nobody is gonna wanna pay that for the equivalent of washed up JBJ.
Fever, the deal right now doesn’t look as good as it did when it was inked. He strikes out way too much but he got penalized on defense last year by moving to short due to necessity because as average as he looked there, he was by far the most productive player they had then. A team would definitely trade for him now given the years on the deal although the return would not be great right now. It’s the risk with any deal made with players so early in their careers. To me, I lump Campbell, Bello and Rafaela together along with any others they may sign to early deals locking in players’ arb plus contracts.
Dewey, Rafaela only has 4 strikeouts in 26 at-bats so far, unless I misread, that is a nice improvement if he can stay in that range.
Ignorant but if his average is under .300 what good is it? That said, I realize everyone is hyped over Campbell but both need time. I was just projecting if he doesn’t come alive and also admittedly didn’t notice the strikeouts; only that he wasn’t hitting. My bad on that.
Dewey- The contract is heavily backloaded, no team will take 100% of it.
.200 I meant
Fpg you missed the point of my statment entirely and but on your point i totally disagree if that contract goes down as the worst thats pretty damn good becsuse right now david price and chris sale have it beat by a country mile..yoshida and cuban guy we signed as well..50 million over that time is nothing by comparison to any of them
Pool – You need to look at each contract individually.
If they had kept Sale he would hsve given them a Triple Crown Cy Young season plus this year at $20M.
Castillo was essentially a minor league contract, didn’t count against MLB payroll.
Price was decent and came up big in 2018.
Yoshida has provided some value and has 3 more years to prove his worth if healthy.
I’m not saying Rafaela will definitely flame out, I’m just saying the possibility is there.
“Regret thecrafaela extension”..I haven’t seen enough of the Redsox or Rafaela this year to comment on your main point.
But, in giving out $40M+ early extensions, the baseball ops executives need to bat at least .750 to make it pay off.
Based on 28 PAs? Judge was slugging .167 in that tiny sample size last April.
Exactly and for a deal that really isn’t all that much money in today’s game while also being so early in the deal I doubt anyone is sweating it.
Worse case he ends up a utility insurance piece capable of covering lots of positions. Lots of very successful teams (i.e.LAD) value those guys tremendously.
Heck I could see a team like the Rays gladly trading for him in a shrewd move and flipping him after he’s blossomed and starts getting in the more expensive years of the deal.
Worst case is he ends up like Scott Kingrey.
padre – $50M may not have been much to Pete, but to John Henry it’s a sizable amount and it could be the difference between going over the first CBT threshold or going over the second CBT threshold, resulting in much bigger penalties.
The Red Sox are not the Dodgers, they don’t have an unlimited budget. Just like your parents won’t increase your credit limit if you max out your credit cards, John Henry will put the brakes on spending if Breslow overspends on bad players.
Mule – Myles Straw might be a better comp.
nothing to do with stats (although his career k/bb rate is worrisome) based on the fact that there’s no room for him in the outfield
dasit – That’s exactly it, Red Sox Nation wants an ADA outfield ….. Anthony, Duran and Abreu.
There’s no room for Rafaela in the outfield.
You have no idea what millions of people in Red Sox Nation want.
Fever, MLB and All, injuries are also part of the game (if Raffy’s shoulders bark again and Yoshida returns and produces, us fans will be jumping on the Yoshida bandwagon). In the event there is no room in the OF for Rafaela, either he or Gonzales are likely included in a deal for a pitcher as the season moves on.
dewey – You’ve brought up an interesting question …. who has more value, Romy or Rafaela? I think it’s a toss-up. Romy hits well against LHP, but Rafaela is the better athlete and more versatile.
dasit
nothing to do with stats
=======================
If the stats are good, then the contract is good.
YBC – He has 688 PA’s and he appears to be getting worse. His career numbers include a .649 OPS and a 78 OPS+. He’s basically JBJ long before JBJ became a putrid hitter.
Fever, he was brought up due to necessity and signed early because of his potential. He smartly took the offer when another might be kicking themselves for not doing it. Also, Henry is a businessman and will continue to spend IF he believes the money is better spent on the Sox roster as compared to elsewhere within the Fenway conglomerate. It’s the true reason why the club started watching those pennies. If there is no golf opportunity and he doesn’t see spending more on soccer, hockey or in a new situation, he’ll pour as much in as it takes when projections show opportunities. My beef has always been the Sox as the golden goose that allowed him to expand on another’s dime should always be considered separate. The fans deserve that.
dewey – Yes John Henry is a businessman, and profits are what is most important to him. He will spend if it leads to bigger profit. It didn’t in 2019 thanks to Cora, which is why Henry went Scrooge soon after.
I doubt it, he’s still a valuable player with his defensive prowess in the OF, and ability to play all over the diamond. If/when he loses the starter spot in CF he can still easily play 4-5 times per week.
maine – He’s started only 10 games as a corner OF in his entire professional career.
But let’s say he plays 4 days a week as you suggested, covering CF/SS/3B/2B.
There is no way Duran, Campbell, Bregman and Story (or Mayer) are gonna be rested for 26 games each this year. Not if the Red Sox are truly trying to win.
Fever, injuries happen and while Story is as good of a story (pun intended) as any, his recent history can’t be forgotten and unlike prior seasons, the team has legitimate options
now.
dewey – If Story has a comeback season, they should be able to trade him without eating his contract.
If you’re trying to win and Story returns to his CO days, why trade him if you’re trying to win now? Only a couple years left option excluded. Injuries typically take care of the crowded roster but if not, the deadline could be fun…
Yeah, elite defense in CF from your number 9 hitter is a terrible waste of money…
The idea is he’ll be the guy to lose his spot when Anthony is ready, and then they have a bench player locked into this contract. I still don’t think that it makes the contract a bad one though.
maine – Not just Anthony, when Mayer is promoted then Campbell would likely be moved to OF.
And yes, over $6M annually for a defensive replacement is really, really bad. If defense was that important, JBJ would still be playing.
@Fever just because he hasn’t really played the corners so far doesn’t mean that he wouldn’t play there in a scenario where he is a utility player. As a utility player he almost certainly would, and could effectively cover 6 positions.
They aren’t going to make Campbell the every day CF only to move him back to the infield when Anthony is promoted, and even if they did where does Mayer go at that point? Plus, there’s a reason they promoted Campbell to play 2B over Mayer even though Mayer was playing significantly better in spring training. Unless they somehow end up needing two outfielders (Abreu turns back into a pumpkin, or someone is traded?), when Mayer comes up it will be to replace Story or Bregman not to displace Campbell.
Fever, JBJ has no infield experience, is left handed, is likely slowing down and has a longer track record suggesting his numbers will not improve. Rafaella’,s contract is not penalizing the club this season so why worry about it now? No one has a crystal ball and as I posted already, do much can happen. Things will work out.
when they signed the extension they didn’t have a glut of outfielders. durran is a star, abreu is legit, anthony needs a place to play and the org appears to sees campbell as a legit center fielder. not sure where that leaves cedanne
Rsox – Which outfielder do you envision getting moved? Because there’s simply no room for Rafaela and his limp noodle bat.
I don’t think you have to move anyone. Rafaela has started games at multiple positions and could be at worst the Red Sox version of Kike Hernandez if he can get his bat a little more consistent
Rsox – Okay but you did write “elite defense in CF” ;O)
I just don’t see him starting games on a regular basis unless there’s a lot of injuries. The Dodgers have had injuries (Freeman, Mookie, etc) and platoon players, but I can’t see any infield platoons for the Sox.
Hernandez’sbat is always inconsistent until October. Give Rafaela a chance should he still be on the club if/when the Sox return to the playoff
Replace the name Rafaela with ypshida and you are on to something
dasit – No doubt it’s looking like another money-pissing contract right now, but he’s still young enough to improve. Time spent in Woosta could help him.
2.8 bWAR as a rookie is pretty good.
Even if he ends up a super utility guy in the end, they won’t care. He’s very useful and could still figure it out. Feels like he already has more walks than last year haha
Tang – Yes! He ended the months-long walkless streak in Baltimore on 4 pitches that were either in the dirt or a foot outside. I was disappointed the announcers made no mention of it. He walked again Friday, so that’s a positive I guess. LOL
The Red Sox can have the deepest outfield I can think of right now in the majors, with Duran and abreu and Anthony and Campbell and Rafaela
Not to mention Yoshida and Refsnyder too
It’s only seven games so let’s not get ahead of ourselves but Abreu looks great. So many of us thought he’d be gone by now. His stock continues to rise. Give Bloom love for stealing him from Houston. Breslow seems to be doing a fine job but it’s unclear how Bloom would have done had the purse strings been loosened under his watch. I’m thinking the Verdugo trade with the Yankees just getting Fitts has the same potential as the Vasquez deal was but the difference so far is how Breslow is trying to recognize the importance of looking ahead with the pitching staff.
Today’s game is postponed. Doubleheader tomorrow.
So with Duran in LF, Campbell in CF, Abreu in RF, Mayer would play 2nd or would Story move back there? Left side of their infield is scary good with the glove right now
Campbell would only be in the OF for games when Hamilton was at 2B
Putting alotta pressure on 22 yr old rookie making him play 5 different positions. He needs consistency & stability to continue to develop. Instead sox want kcamp to be superman
You mean like having Rafaela split time between the 2 top defensive positions last year?
bing: Five positions? they’re having him play two 2B and CF. If you’re talking about last year he handled playing across the diamond just fine while he rocketed the minors last year.
Having Campbell play all over is consistent with how he was used in the minors. Its what he is used to. A super utility player can be one of the most valuable players on the team.
Agreed Sty this is how he was used in the minors he can play just about any position which makes him valuable defensively and he’s already done it. His bat is obviously his carrying tool not many guys have the hard bat to ball skills of Kristian Campbell. Now that he is up you have to find a place for him to play nearly everyday.
I’m curious which 5 positions he plays. So far, it is three, and going forward, it will be two. They did the same thing with Betts and it looks like it worked out.
Boston is quietly transitioning from “positions” to “functions. 2025 may be remembered not for Boston’s win total, but as the year they pioneered a new logic tree for roster usage — one where players are valued by use-case algorithms, not by where they stand on a lineup card.
I tried to grow a logic tree, but it bore bitter fruit. I’m afraid my topsoil is too alkaline, and the root structure has nowhere deep to spread out.
uhhhh just leave him at 2b ok?
Thoughts on Buehler‘s start to the season?
He’s been a disaster so far
As expected. Pitchers that have had twp UCL procedures rarely return to form.
The only guy i can think of who has had multiple TJs & still pitches @ high level is jake degrom. He had also nerve surgery in betw the 2 TJs.
Man now that i think abt it i wish jake stayed healthier, woulda been hof’er 1st ballot
Nathan Eovaldi has had two TJ surgeries.
So has Ohtani.
Ohtani hasn’t pitched since his second TJ. We don’t know if he’s returned to form yet.
bing – What about deGrom’s teammate? The Great Nate had two TJS and has obviously been sensational ever since.
Taillon, is another. I can think of more, but then I’d be going back over a decade.
Great nate? ,more like adequate nate.
Let me fix that for you: …& still pitches every few years @ high level is Jake deGrom.
Styme – deGrom has a grand total of 5 starts and just 10 innings since returning from TJS.
Calling that a success story is beyond silly. Let’s see how he does the rest of this season.
Its a one year deal. If he continues to struggle when Bello and Giolito are ready they could just cut him and eat the money or trade him for peanuts
Rsox – Between Walker, Hendriks, Giolito etc there could be a lot of eating going on at 4 Jersey Street.
@chandlerbing
It’s early, though.
Walker Buehler’s 2025 start (as of April 5) shows an 8.68 ERA, 6.24 FIP, and 3.78 xFIP over a small sample, with a 3.71 SIERA offering hope. His 6.75 K/9, 0.96 BB/9, .355 BABIP, 41.2% hard-hit rate, 93.3 mph fastball, and 96 Stuff+ paint a mixed picture: elite control and signs of bad luck (high BABIP, HR/FB) clash with diminished stuff and contact issues. SIERA and xFIP suggest improvement is likely as luck normalizes, potentially dropping his ERA to 4.00–4.50 in the coming months. However, the low velocity and strikeouts cap optimism—expect a rebound to a solid mid-rotation arm, with ace potential only if his fastball and whiffs recover.
It’s April 5th. If he keeps this up for a month then you can call it a disaster of a start.
Only issued one walk thus far. Less than one per 9 innings. Look for the positives buried amongst the morass of negatives.
Hated the deal when it happened, somehow hate it more now. 20MM to a pitcher with an era north of 5 in the previous season is crazy. The last time he was good was 2021. Nothing against Buehler, but if he was actually worth that deal, the Dodgers would have extended a QO.
You’re better off looking at the peripherals if you want to judge a guy on 2 outings. The 7/1 K/W still works. The HR/FB should come down and LOB% should increase.
I see Mayer got time at 2nd last night at Worster…. Going to be interesting where this ends up with Story onboard til possibly 2028
Agreed it will be interesting. I doubt the Red Sox exercise their 2028 club option on Story.
Who wants to unload a mistake shortstop more, Detroit or Boston?
Story is a bad contract due to injury. Baez is a bad contract due to ability. I would think Red Sox keep their fingers crossed and hope Story stays healthy. Dont know what Detroit can do!
The two contracts are virtually identical, but Detroit is much worse off. The Red Sox have tightened the purse strings in recent years, but are still pretty big spenders. Story’s money hurts their roster construction efforts, but they can work around it if they want to.
The Tigers are a much more frugal organization. Baez is a much larger chunk of their payroll and really restricts what they can do. What could the Tigers have done this last off-season if they didn’t have Javy’s contract weighing them down?
Detroit easy. Story is still a good player. Detroit doesn’t even start Baez anymore. He’s a $23M bench player.
Not even close. Would you trade Story for Baez?
TrotNixonIsMyHero
Story is a bad contract due to injury.
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Not all the casual fans follow the stats. Story has a 4.1 bWAR in 637 ABs. That’s perfectly acceptable. The injuries, not so very much.
Yeah they said the other day the plan is for him to play most games at SS, but once per week each at 2B and 3B.
maine – The Red Sox never have plans, they only have ideas that come and go without much thought.
For example Cora admitted it was dumb of him to have KC playing LF in ST.
@Fever plans changing doesn’t mean they didn’t have plans
Maine – Agreed if the plan changes due to unforeseen circumstances.
In this case people assumed Cora wanted the elite CF Duran in CF. Cora admitted that was not the case. He’s not intelligent enough to think things through, he’s not analytical, he’s not a critical thinker. I give him credit for admitting it.
My guess is that they look at Arias’s development. I’d say there is about 40% chance that Bregman opts out and that Mayer is our 3B next year.
I think Story ends up on the trade block before then. Perhaps as early as this summer.
Congratulations Nick. That piece was totally unreadable. I had to leave this website to make sense of the topics you attempted to cover.
Why don’t you rewrite the article for us? Show us your exquisite talents.
If only defense alignment could confuse the other team like in football, the Red Sox could really make other teams’ heads spin.
The dreaded 1-1-7 formation… 1 catcher, 1 pitcher, 7 outfielders.
Maybe a few infield hits, but nothing’s dropping in that outfield!
Cool anyways, MLB is juicing balls again this year like in 2019 btw. Can we maybe call them out on it and protect the integrity of the game or are we going to be a circus like the NBA?
Juicing likely only at Yankee Stadium as usual. It’s not juicing, it’s that they get a “special” ball fit for Yankee Stadium’s unique atmospheric conditions and especially “boing-y” when hit with a torpedo bat.
Sox won’t do a 6 man rotation. Fitts plays out of the pen, so he stays. While Newcomb has been an interesting story with his past, and slight resurgence, he’s the odd man out.
I would not be shocked if Sandoval pitches before Crawford this year.